Tesla Model 3 Will Steal Sales From Small Euro Luxury Gasmobiles

2 months ago by EVANNEX 40

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

TESLA MODEL 3 WON’T COMPETE WITH ELECTRIC CARS, IT’S GOT BIGGER FISH TO FRY

Recently, we compared the Tesla Model 3 with other electric vehicles in roughly the same price range. While it’s likely Model 3 will take away sales from other electric cars, with Tesla’s 455,000 reservations, it’s doubtful Elon Musk plans to steal sales from small EV competitors alone.

Take, for example, the Chevy Bolt — Motley Fool reports, “GM’s annual production goal was [only] between 25,000 and 30,000… The Model 3, on the other hand, is a sleekly styled compact luxury sports sedan, an electric alternative to BMW’s huge-selling 3-Series”.

Tesla

Red Tesla Model 3 (Source: Tesla)

That said, which automakers are losing the most sales to Model 3? Bloomberg reports:

“BMW and Mercedes should be concerned. This automobile is clearly targeting their market. Since Musk handed over keys to the first 30 cars … I’ve heard a lot of people trying to compare the Model 3 to GM’s all-electric Chevy Bolt (known as the Opel Ampera-e in Europe). Although they’re similarly priced and both run on batteries, the parallel ends there. The Bolt is basically an economy gasoline car that’s been electrified; the Model 3 is, well, something altogether different.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

Tesla

White Tesla Model 3 (Source: Tesla)

With reports that Musk is now predicting Model 3 demand could surpass 700,000 units, it’s clear that “in order to succeed, it will have to tear down the artificial distinction between a ‘car buyer’ and an ‘electric-car buyer’ and go straight at the heart of the $35,000 sedan class: the BMW 3 Series and the Mercedes-Benz C-Class. The Model 3 is Musk’s missile aimed at this target.”

Tesla

Comparing Tesla Model 3 with comparably priced cars from luxury automakers (Source: CleanTechica)

Furthermore, if we look at a more broad overview of similar-priced cars from luxury automakers, it’s clear that the Model 3 could pose a significant threat in the category.

Zach Shahan at CleanTechnica reports, “the gas car competition in the same price range is almost entirely slower… The Tesla Model 3 is a quicker, bigger, better car for the price category it’s in. How long till the masses that are in the market for a $30,000–50,000 car discover this?”

What’s especially striking is looking at price comparisons with the $7,500 federal tax credit. And that’s not even assuming additional incentives available from certain states.

Once we take this into consideration, the Tesla Model 3 has the potential to eat into sales from some truly mainstream cars under $30,000.

USA Today ponders this further, calling the Model 3 “a serious option for many American families… [it] poses a novel question to motorists: Has the time finally come to consider ditching the gas pump in favor of a plug?”

Above: Famed Apple analyst and Loup Ventures VC, Gene Munster, talks pricing and production for Tesla’s Model 3 (Youtube: Benzinga)

There are other factors to take into consideration when comparing price as well — it’s more accurate to consider the total cost of ownership, including savings from fuel, insurance, maintenance, and repairs over a typical ownership period. Don’t believe the economics of Model 3 ownership can hold a candle to these types of cars? Take a look at how the Model 3 compares with the Toyota Camry head-to-head.

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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40 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Will Steal Sales From Small Euro Luxury Gasmobiles"

  1. HG Wells says:

    Glad to see they increased the width from 76 to 82 at the last minute. Now its wider than the S !!!

    1. Viking79 says:

      Width is tricky, most cars measure with the mirrors folded. They should measure widest point with mirrors in driving position and widest point excluding mirrors.

    2. Joe says:

      Tesla model 3 is not a luxury sedan comparable to BMW/Mercedes/Audi

      Nevertheless it has some attributes :
      – Brand image (it looks cool to own a Tesla)
      – accélération? Some non luxury cars have fantastic engines
      – Design? Same as for accelerations (not restricted to luxury cars)
      – technology : yes absolutely. Tesla has an edge over premium cars.

      So basically Tesla has only 2 attributes of a luxury car: image & technology

      Finish is too far away from à German car. It looks more like a VW in appearance without the actual quality of a VW.
      It takes time

      Don’t get me wrong. Tesla will have a tremendous influence over the automotive world.
      And yes a potential 50k$ could indeed hesitate. Not between 2 luxury cars but with 2 brands with positive image.

      1. Get Real says:

        LMAO, VW has a poor reputation for quality and the German brands are notorious for VERY expensive parts and servicing.

        Tesla’s design architecture of the flat battery pack weight distribution and double wishbones gives it’s vehicles an inherent advantage over the German’s convention designs.

        In fact, as the laggard German brands transition to compliance level PHEVs, their handling will become compromised by shoe-horning in battery packs alongside existing ICE drivetrains.

        As far as the Model 3 minimalist interior, we shall see if it heralds a new paradigm like the Iphone did by eliminating the physical keyboard.

        1. Get Real says:

          Forgot to mention that Tesla has a further advantage as having very high acceleration performance too as the inherent advantage of a big battery electric drivetrain.

      2. SJC says:

        As the wise man said “we will see” (soon).

      3. Buggy says:

        Joe, regarding the luxury definition, based on photos the interior of the Model 3 seems to have achieved a competitive level of craftsmanship. Sports and minimalist, but as long as the materials are nice and well crafted, proportional dimensions, it seems yes it does have a luxury feel to it. It looks more refined than the S interior. I would add a little bit of more metal trims around the doors, but that should be easy to improve.

  2. HG Wells says:

    Well almost.

  3. alohart says:

    The 0-60 mph times for the BMW 2, 3, and 4 series must be for the M versions yet the prices are for the basic versions making their comparisons to the Model 3 not accurate.

    1. john doe says:

      I get a feeling that mostly people from the US focus on the 0-60 time.
      Handling, and interior quality is more important in Europe.
      To drive an EV with instant torque is cool and all, but for regular driving from A-B. . 0-60 times is not that important. Stable at high speed is of course important for people that commute on the autobahn and so on.

      I don’t think this actually compete against ICE cars… but the specs and price combination can be good enough for people that have been waiting for an EV that is not useless for their needs.
      I’m sure it will result in more EV fans.
      We all see which way the market is moving (slowly I might add) towards EVs.

      EVs have many advantages, and quite a few drawbacks and/or potential drawbacks.
      The life of an EV may be shorter – as we have seen in Norway, where they practically gave away the used EVs with inferior battery technology. The cost to replace the battery was more then the value of a used car.
      There are concerns about brakes and rust. I’ve read that rust was the reason for over 3/4 of the brake replacements on EVs. Regen results in wet brake rotors stying wet for longer.
      Some (only few models so far) models have inferior rust protection.
      Power control units / regulators are expensive and is a risk with older EVs. Some say that the cars that has been made so far have expensive parts that is well made – and later on it will be replaced with cheaper electronics. . probably just fear mongering.

      1. windbourne says:

        LOL.
        According to the early reviews, the handling is SUPERIOR to anything from Europe of $60K and less, and matches/beats a number of cars above that price.

        Secondly, that interior for the premium is supposed to beat BMW, MB, etc competitors. Considering that they are using the same front seats/material as MS/X, I suspect that it blows the doors off them.

        And WRT to 0-60, considering that ONLY in Germany can you go above 100 MPH legally, then quickness and ability to avoid accidents, etc, become very important. And a car which weighs the same as the competitors, BUT has the majority of the weight down low and between the tires, will far far outperform a front heavy POS.

        1. john Doe says:

          Reviews depends on who writes them.

          I think the Tesla Model S is a nice car, with amazing acceleration, I like the screen and the door handles, miss feedback from some physical controls – like knobs and buttons, a superior range, and the looks from the back/side is like art (never liked the area around the grill, or lack of a grill. An Aston Martin front would be cool.
          And I can understand people are happy with their purchase – but they need a reality check from time to time. It’s just a car.
          It’s a good looking car, but it’s not the holy grail of cars.

          As for interior quality, I hope they have learned from the Model S.
          We have two Model S at work, and they are absolutely NOT equal to Mercedes and BMW when it comes to interior quality. There is also something weird about how two panels match, or don’t match/line up properly on one of them.
          Tesla has an interior more like a Ford Mondeo. More then OK, but room for improvements.
          I’m also very surprised that Tesla Model S is so noisy (for an EV) at that price. I think they should have more sound insulation and maybe a redesign of the doors.
          The much cheaper e-Golf is much more quiet.
          Just test for yourself.
          I’m sure the e-Golf is this quiet since it’s a car designed for an ICE to begin with. They just kept the insulation for the EV version (and the door design is different).
          I have not tested model X for noise – so I can not compare that model.
          But compared to the old VW Transporter (T4) i used to own – they are both like sensory deprivation chambers 🙂

          I don’t normally drive that fast in Germany either. I usually drive at 80-85 miles pr hour (cruice control at 130km/h).. get too tiered at higher speeds. At least for longer trips. Maybe due to the older crappy cars I usually drive – but you really have to process a lot of information at higher speeds too. Not to mention the fuel economy and safety.

    2. Trickyricky says:

      Well spotted. Incorrect it certainly is. It’s this kind of bad info that shows some authors just copy paste stuff from others without checking if it’s correct so that’s bad info twice.. A bmw 2 series with 4sec to 60 time?? And for that price?? Sign me up for one! Same with the 3 series, i won’t bother to check the other times anymore, at least the model 3 times are correct.
      I have a reservation but still think the bolt is a very good car for almost everybody but too expensive like all other ev’s in this price range.

    3. Ken says:

      I noticed the same thing. I went to BMW’s site and to configure a 3 series with a 5.5 second 0-60 starts at $40,250 and 4.8 seconds is 49k starting point.

      The 35k starting point has a 7.1 second 0-60 time

  4. Larspa says:

    To be a threat, they (Tesla) need to be able to deliver. The size of their threat is equal to their production capacity…

    1. Get Real says:

      Which is why there is a Gigafactory and massive assembly line expansions at Fremont.

    2. windbourne says:

      Actually, considering how they redesigned the assembly line, they will have no issue with ‘production’.
      The real question is, will they have solved their QA issue. The MS had a lot of QA issues early on, and the MX, even more. MS has straightened out, except for those bought at the end of the quarter.
      MX remains hit/miss. Not sure why.
      I just talked to a MX customer who had hers for 8 months and has taken it in 3 times for issues like noise.
      Hopefully, the reversed manufacturing will solve this.

  5. Alex a says:

    The Model 3’s hideous dashboard will prevent much stealing of market share from any car. Also it is not clear that Tesla won’t have run out of other people’s money by time the first deliveries to Europe commence

    1. Get Real says:

      LMFAO, so says the serial anti-Tesla troll.

      What would be accurate is to note how Model S worldwide sales have leaped ahead of the sales of the laggard German luxury brands in that segment.

      I know that hater’s heads are starting to explode now that the superior Model 3 will do the same to the laggard German brands in its segment and in fact their sales are already down as many buyers wait for a Model 3.

    2. windbourne says:

      LOL.
      Only trolls gripe about the dashboard.
      And you MUST be a paid astrotrufer from the kock bros.
      They have borrowed, and have investors, but nothing wrong with that. Running out of money? It is possible, but I doubt it. FOr example, they could stop building out showrooms/service centers/super chargers and make bigger profits margins than Apple.
      BUT, they do not want to do that.
      While the going is good, they will continue to grow quickly and force the other car makers to either switch or die.

      And as to your bosses, I hope that you are being well paid to troll here.

  6. CDAVIS says:

    @Bloomberg quote: “BMW and Mercedes should be concerned. This automobile is clearly targeting their market.”
    ——–

    So next 3-7 years it it will be a battle of the substantial portfolio of BMW & Mercedes “concept” EVs vs. Tesla Model 3 “production” EVs.

  7. spinit says:

    Price is fine, performance is fine, the range at 300 miles is enough compared to 400-500 for ICE BMW 3 series.
    The remaining problem is rapid charging, most will be done at home but 20-30 minutes to 80% is not quick enough and will mean delays at superchargers. If this was cut to 10-15 minutes at 350kWh to 80% it would be game over for ICE vehicles in this class.

    1. James says:

      @spinit

      You are right.
      But it depends how often and how far you are driving. You can save up to 7 Euro every 100 km alone with the cheap charging. 350 kW charging will come for sure.

    2. CDAVIS says:

      @spinit said: “…problem is rapid charging, most will be done at home but 20-30 minutes to 80% is not quick enough…If this was cut to 10-15 minutes at 350kWh to 80% it would be game over for ICE”
      —–

      For sure faster Supercharging would even further improve the Tesla value proposition. Tesla has stated they are working on that.

      but…

      Keep in mind (like in my case with my Model S) most Tesla owners wake up each day with a ~200-300mile full charge and so are only needing to use a Supercharger on extended range trips.

      In my case I’m spending net less more time at Superchargers than at the otherwise ICE gas stations stops because the added time spent on long range Supercharging is more than offset by the elimination of time it would have taken getting gas for local-range trips. Also, on longer range trips I would often have anyways stopped for a lunch/dinner break so when Supercharging during those breaks it for me is not a negative time wise.

      1. spinit says:

        Good point, but for the general public, it’s a convoluted point to get across, initially at least.

        1. CDAVIS says:

          @spinit said: “… it’s a convoluted point to get across… ”
          ——

          I agree.

          I heard but didn’t fully appreciate the point until after spending time real-world driving my Model S. Prior to my spending time with Model S my expectation was charging would be more a negative issue that it has turned out to be. The key though is having access to a convenient & reliable Supercharging Network… without that I wouldn’t use my Model S for long range trips.

    3. windbourne says:

      To be honest, I am glad that they do NOT have an ultra-charger.
      Many studies have been done about American grid/electricity production. They have shown that we could move 100% of our vehicles over to EV as long as 75% or more charge at nighttime. Going to daytime charging will not only require a massive investment into the grid and production, but it will increase our electric costs.
      One other thing that came out of those studies was that if they are below 15% daytime charging, then the costs of electricity will actually DROP. Not just production, but the grid since it will even out the demand load nicely, while increasing total sales.

      So, the last thing that America, in fact, all nations, should be doing is encouraging daytime charging.
      Instead, all subsidies should be done to push for home, flats, apartment, nighttime charging.

      1. Michael W. Gjerde says:

        Sorry but daytime charging will actually be much preferred as solar generation increases. Great to have huge batteries ready to go as solar expands exponentially.

  8. SparkEV says:

    “The Bolt is basically an economy gasoline car that’s been electrified;”

    This is simply not true. While Bolt lags some gassers in its post subsidy price range, it is better than any econo gasser. Which econo gasser does 0-60 in 6.3 sec? Bolt is not the strongest contender among similarly priced cars (I mean all cars), but it is by no means econo gasser. Leaf is closer to econo gasser comparison despite having a dedicated EV platform.

    But SparkEV was an electrified gasser, and it dominated against all gassers of similar price. SparkEV proves that electrifying an existing gasser could make the car whole lot better.

    1. ffbj says:

      Yes, that’s true. Other examples are the Mini, the Fiat 500e, which are said to be just better cars, though they are just conversions.
      Yep, ev is better than gas.

    2. Scott Franco says:

      The Bolt was designed entirely around the battery, which is a Tesla style flat pack at the bottom of the car. The article’s comment was completely wrong.

      1. windbourne says:

        and yet, the bolt was made like a $20,000 cheap car. Even now, the bolt is show issues with their batteries. That is what I would expect of GM (or any car maker in the 20K level).

  9. Priusmaniac says:

    I find the Camry Model 3 comparison a bit biased because they limit to only five years while the average lifespan of a car is at least double that and it is precisely those five extra years that can make the difference.

    So let’s look at the effect of those extra five years.

    Camry start with a purchase price of 24544$, 2467$ taxes & fee, 6204$ insurance, 3497$ maintenance, 683$ repairs and 5915$ in fuel. So a total of 43310$.

    After 5 more years it will have an extra in taxes (200$ x 5 = 1000$), in insurance (1300$ x 5 = 6500$), in maintenance (5 x 1000$ = 5000$), in repairs (5 x 300$ = 1500$) and in fuel (1200$ x 5 = 6000$).

    That makes an additional amount of 20000$, making a total of 63310$ on ten years for the Camry.

    Model 3 (considering extended battery) start with a purchase price of 44000$, 3654$ taxes & fee, 1200$ destination & doc, 6171$ insurance, 500$ maintenance, 0$ repairs and 2705$ in electricity. So a total of 58230$.

    After 5 more years it will have an extra in taxes (200$ x 5 = 1000$) in insurance (1300$ x 5 = 6500$) in maintenance (5 x 500$ = 2500$) in repairs (5 x 300$ = 1500$) and in electricity (500$ x 5 = 3000$).

    That makes an additional amount of 14500$, making a total of 72730$ on ten years for the Model 3.

    So we still have 9420$ more for the Model 3.
    You would need to keep the Model 3 an extra 8,5 years to break even. But then on 18,5 years total, it is possible that you would need a battery replacement so that would perhaps bring you back of an extra 3 x 9000$ = 27000$ (based on a 25 KWh cost of 9000$ extended to a full 75 KWh battery).

    Of course if the extended battery was cheaper it would be very different and we can see that the base battery version gives a Model 3 ten year total of 63730$, barely 420$ more than the Camry.

    Another interesting consideration is the European situation and its specific high tax system.

    Camry start with a purchase price of 24544€, 6364€ taxes & fee, 6204€ insurance, 3992€ maintenance, 779€ repairs and 9360€ in fuel. So a total of 51243€.

    After 5 more years it will have an extra in taxes (228€ x 5 = 1140€), in insurance (1300€ x 5 = 6500€), in maintenance (5 x 1150€ = 5750€), in repairs (5 x 345€ = 1725€) and in fuel (1872€ x 5 = 9360€).

    That makes an additional amount of 24475€, making a total of 75718€ on ten years for the Camry.

    Model 3 (considering extended battery) start with a purchase price of 44000€, 2640€ import tax, 2200€ Tilburg rework, 11406€ taxes & fee, 1200€ destination & doc, 6171€ insurance, 575€ maintenance, 0€ repairs and 3110€ in electricity. So a total of 71302€.

    After 5 more years it will have an extra in taxes (228€ x 5 = 1140€) in insurance (1300€ x 5 = 6500€) in maintenance (5 x 570€ = 2850€) in repairs (5 x 342€ = 1710€) and in electricity (622€ x 5 = 3110€).

    That makes an additional amount of 15310€, making a total of 86612€ on ten years for the Model 3.

    So we still have 10894€ more for the Model 3.

    You would need to keep the Model 3 an extra 6 years to break even. But then on 16 years total, it is possible that you would need a battery replacement so that would perhaps bring you back of an extra 3 x 10971€ = 32913€ (based on a 25 KWh cost of 10971€ extended to a full 75 KWh battery).

    Of course if the extended battery was cheaper it would be considerably different and we can see that the base battery version gives a Model 3 ten year total of 75069€ which is actually 649€ cheaper indeed than the Camry. Hurray there you are. Yes and no because there is a catch, Europeans are used to long range cars like diesels so they are not likely to massively adopt the standard battery but rather the extended one. Nevertheless indeed the Model 3 base battery could hit hard and even more so if it could be locally produced to get rid of import tariff or, of course if even only the extended battery was made locally which would be a double win situation.

    1. John Timothy says:

      Some of the assumptions and numbers in your post are questionable. For example, your assumption that a replacement 75kWh battery would cost 32913E is obviously wrong because the entire M3 only costs 11087E more than your assumed battery price, and batteries will likely be much cheaper in 16 years. Furthermore, M3 batteries probably will not need replacement since MS batteries are showing only 6% reduction in capacity after 400,000 km.

      1. Priusmaniac says:

        I completely agree that a new 75 KWh battery would likely be cheaper than 3 times what is asked for the 25 KWh extension but it is the high value of it. The lowest value would be considering the real cost price starting from Tesla that indicated they were lower per KWh then GM. Since GM was at 145 $/KWh, 75 KWh would than be 10875$, at cells level, so a pack would be something like 13000$. This said since Tesla ask 9000$ for a 25 KWh upgrade, there is absolutely no reason to believe they would suddenly go from a very high price to a very low true cost price. At best somewhere in between around 20000 $.

    2. John Timothy says:

      Externalized costs of driving an ICE car should also be included in any comparison with electric cars.

      EVs can run on solar and wind energy, and this would reduce oil wars and global warming that cost us Trillions. Furthermore, some cities are banning fossil fuel cars to reduce urban pollution. Owning an ICE car that cannot be used will be very costly indeed.

      1. Priusmaniac says:

        Certainly that count a lot, but I was only taking a pure direct economic approach.

  10. Rick says:

    I really have to wonder how many current European Luxury car owners will switch to Model 3 after looking at that (lack of a) dash.

    1. CDAVIS says:

      @Rick said: “I really have to wonder how many current European Luxury car owners will switch to Model 3 after looking at that (lack of a) dash.”
      ——–

      Good question..: but more accurately it’s a change in dash layout conventions rather than a lack of a dash.

      The professional reviews available on Model 3 sound positive. Example:

      “The Tesla Model 3 is here, and it is the most important vehicle of the century.
      Yes, the hyperbole is necessary…”

      source: http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

      “The decision to create a cabin that challenges the conventions of interior design not only demonstrates Tesla’s capabilities but also puts other automakers on notice.”

      source: http://www.motortrend.com/news/video-exclusive-a-closer-look-at-the-tesla-model-3s-interior/

    2. Mark.ca says:

      Look at the Model S for your answer…it’s very similar in that it doesn’t have any buttons other than the steering wheel controls (and one on each side of the screen).
      How many complained about that? Isn’t it one of the best selling luxury sedans on the market?

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