Tesla Model 3 U.S. Deliveries Dip As It Ships To Global Markets

FEB 1 2019 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 175

Tesla Model 3 U.S. sales down as automaker readies for Europe and Chinese invasions.

The expected result of shifting to overseas is seen in our estimates, but that doesn’t imply that demand for the Model 3 has fallen. In fact, demand abroad is high and is being fulfilled now, so on the U.S. side, a slip was inevitable.

Because of low in-transit vehicles at the end of Q4 and with Tesla stating that all current production of the Model 3 would be focused on Europe and China, we had to be conservative with January figures. Additionally, January is known to be the weakest sales months for all EVs, not just Teslas. And it’s not just the Model 3. In a typical first month of the quarter, Tesla sends more Model S and X abroad too, which is reflected in our figures.

There’s good news though. Tesla was delivering Model 3s quickly, with reports of U.S. buyers receiving their cars in a week, or just a few days in some cases.

As we’ll report in detail (condensed here) in our Report Card post coming later today:

We also know that Tesla had about 1,000 Model 3s in transit at the end of the last quarter. It makes sense to deduce that most Model 3 production beyond that (at least until the last week or so of December) was delivered to U.S. customers prior to Tesla switching to production efforts for Europe and China. This means that — in addition to those 1,000 or so cars — another 5,000+ were delivered in the U.S. before Tesla redirected its production efforts.

Additionally, we know that 1,897 Model S and Model X vehicles were in transit at the end of December. As usual, most Model S and X vehicles will also be heading overseas this month, since it’s the first month of the quarter.

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175 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 U.S. Deliveries Dip As It Ships To Global Markets"

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Before the Leningrad trolls show up, when Tesla offers leasing Model 3 sales will double, including their most expensive model the Performance Model 3.

I always encourage those mis-cherry picking sales and delivery data to put their money into it. Commit to a short position.

The US isn’t the only market for Tesla.

Happily no the US isn’t the only market for Tesla
there is also California !

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

LMAO…… +1

Tesla commented that sales are down in the US due to blizzard like conditions… no comment yet on why they’re down in California.

Italy is already in Recession and German growth has stagnated
And the UK is about to kneecap itself with BREXIT. People are just not spending money.
The market for all EV’s and indeed all Cars is not looking so rosy in 2019.

Actually, the market for EVs is looking GREAT.

I would agree the economy hasn’t been this bad in 20 years. I have worked at the same spot for basically 20 years near the big shopping mall. This is the first time people were not fighting for parking, half the shops are closed, no traffic cops, no lines of people returning merchandise, they never hired seasonal help for Christmas. Tesla is doing to good to sell what they are selling. This is also the first time in 20 years I have had to pay additional taxes. We actually have to pay so much additional taxes we will have to finance it. I would love to punch the MFs responsible for this right in the face.

Says the idiot.
You can go back to Breitbart now!

To be fair, the bullish sites have been crowing about how strong US sales have been for the last six months. Some push-back from the bears this month was inevitable and predictable.

Yes, the US sales have dropped off a cliff this month. No, it isn’t a surprise to anyone. No, it won’t prevent Tesla from selling just as many cars this quarter as they did the last two. But yes, it does provide wonderfully easy pickings for negative headline writers.

Well, to be fair, the US sales actually HAVE been strong for the last 6 months, regardless of whether a bullish site was reporting it or a bearish site was reporting it.

Heck, that would still be true even if a moose-ish, a dog-ish, or even a unicorn-ish website would have reported it.

Still no reason or excuse for writers ignoring that Tesla has shiploads of cars right now headed to Europe, and for them making boorish comments as if it were the end of the world for Tesla.

Hopefully Tesla bought a trucking company in Europe to get the cars to their destinations this time.

you obviously don’t know something called seasonality. read YoY data is the basic way to eliminate that.

Yep… Don’t forget most Model 3’s were delivered Q4 of 2018. There are exponetially more people that haven them and showing them off. Lots of good world of mouth on Model 3, converting alot of ICE owners. Sales figure will quickly go up and standard range will put sales figures above 2018.

“Showing them off” indeed. Here in Southern California they’re a dime a dozen, yet each driver thinks they’re super special. Nice work by Tesla, and they definitely play into the superficiality of SoCal residents.

Considering the alternative to the Tesla driving experience hasn’t existed before now, the vehicles are likely super special to the owners. I know mine is. The fact that there are so many in So. Cal doesn’t make their frequency special any more, but takes nothing away from their driving experience. And your comment of ‘superficiality’ of those that drive them is on par with your generalization of the vehicles themselves.

Don’t you also reside in SoCal? So what does that make you?

Wow! Jealous much, dude?

Too bad you can’t afford a Tesla car. Neither can I, but I don’t post sour grapes whines on social media about it.

Pushmi- used Tesla’s are coming way down, you should be able to have one pretty soon, I hope for your sake. Only way I could afford mine was used, but it’s been super awesome so far.

It’s the drive experience.
Every time you drive it it’s a special experience you can feel.

Those who buy innovation get to enjoy innovation.

Deep

I’m betting you get REALLY pissed off when we wave at each other…….

How DARE you enjoy life!

“they definitely play into the superficiality of SoCal residents.”

Hey, us NorCal residents can be plenty superficial as well…

Jan 2019 numbers are fully expected.
I wouldn’t say MX9100’s statement is an obvious outcome. If international sales are strong, US sales may stay well below double Jan 2019 sales for some time.
I expect 2019 sales of Model 3 to be less than 150,000. There is a possibility that they may not exceed 2018 sales.

I suspect Tesla will make sure it is higher by releasing cheaper options to increase demand.

I believe Tesla will be supply constrained for at least 2019.
The question are what trim levels and where are they sold.
If 2019 US production of Model 3 is 300,000 and they can sell 200,000 mid-range or higher internationally, then they should do that and let US sales drop.

Yup. Tesla will definitely be supply (or rather production) constrained this year, due to maxing out the available space at the Fremont assembly plant.

Tesla has plans to get Gigafactory 3 (Shanghai) up and running by the end of the year, and at least tentative plans to start producing the Model Y by the end of this year too. But I won’t be at all surprised if either or both get delayed until 2020. In particular, I think starting assembly line production at Gigafactory 3 only a year after starting construction of the building is a decidedly unrealistic plan.

Everybody raves about how quickly buildings can be erected in China, but installing and fine-tuning automobile production lines takes time, and we saw what happened when Tesla tried to rush that with the Model 3. Not a happy outcome.

If Tesla can mount a GA in a “Tent”, imagine what they can do inside a buidling freshly built, with no space constraint.

I have 2019 numbers inline with 2018 numbers at the moment with 150-200K Model 3s delivered if Tesla comes out with the SR model and about 60K model S/X. Revenue will be about the same and income will be a loss but not as bad as 2018.

That would be terrible. The vast majority of the 3s were delivered in the last 6 months of the year. Maintaining these numbers in 2019 would be a very bad year for Tesla.

Listen the Q&A webcast.

Q1 will be quite low in the US but it´ll grow up in Q2. About 4000/week in Q2-Q4/2019

No way their sales of Model 3 dips below 150k in 2019…..I predict a minimum of 250k. Maybe more if they really get GF3 in China up and running by the end of 2019 as they claim. Also they have not eve started to make the RHD version for the UK and all other areas where they drive on the wrong side of the road. I’ve seen plants in China go up so fast it will make your head spin…..and now that Tesla has the process and components down….it may really happen…..

Only 20% of S/X are leased. If leases were available for S/X, most of those people would simply buy their S/X instead of leasing a different car. Buying is more of a hassle for small business owners when it comes to taxes, but it’s not the end of the world. I don’t expect Model 3 leasing to provide more than a 10% boost to deliveries.

Other premium carmakers lease a higher percentage of vehicles because they buy down the leases to make them more affordable. It’s a way to hide massive discounting which would otherwise damage their brand. Tesla doesn’t buy down their leases. Well, at least not as often.

That’s why they have huge profits :).

Yes everybody who doesn’t love all things Tesla and never see any negatives is working for or with the Russians. I guess that makes it easier huh? if demand for the mid and high price Model 3’s is just as high in the United States why are they concentrating on European shipments at this time? Anyone who sees it vaguely objectively would expect some drop in demand eventually considering the tax credit situation and most hardcore Tesla fans who really wanted to get their hands on the car either have one or waiting for an existing order to be fulfilled. Only the Kool-Aid drinkers who thought for everyone model 3 brought home 10 people in the neighborhood would go out and buy their own after seeing it think differently.

And on the tax credit thing: I recently had a very heated discussion with a friend who claimed that the loss of the tax incentive would not lose Tesla a single sale. As I told him: This is insane, and if you believe it, then you must believe:

* Tesla grossly underpriced their cars and could have tacked on $7,500 to each one, collected more revenue, and not lost any sales.

* Tesla cut the price of their cars by $2,000 for no reason, and simply gave away that amount times the number of cars they’ll now sell.

* Nearly everything they teach in intro microeconomics courses about supply and demand, and the price mechanism, is either wrong or somehow, magically, doesn’t apply to Teslas.

The $7500 tax credit didn’t just disappear, it was cut in half.
So, $3750 was lost from the credit, and then Tesla dropped the price $2000.
That’s now $1750 on a $50,000 car.

If this stops you from buying a Tesla, you weren’t actually buying a Tesla.

Why did they drop the price if demand wasn’t affected?

i think it is a tactical move to make people think prices are not increased a lot suddenly. not everybody follows Tesla car sales/statistics as we do here, they go to sales, ask the price and buy if they like the car or not.

Call me crazy but if they figured demand wouldn’t drop at all they wouldn’t lower the price at all. Isn’t the need for profitability the reason they’ve concentrated on higher priced Model 3’s?

Because it was the right thing to do for Tesla customers to split the difference on the incentive as Tesla’s Margin on Model 3’s went from low single digits to into the 20’s.

The reality is that Tesla has cut prices, added content, and made optional features standard on the Model S/X multiple times each time they have exceeded their 25% target margin. This isn’t some crazy oddball thing that Tesla has never done before. They made cuts before even as total sales continued to grow by high double digits. Unless you think high double digit YOY sales growth is a demand problem….

Also because they are anticipating a slowdown in orders and because they can. let’s not forget they only dropped by $1k since not long before that they increased by 1k…i bet the 2 are connected.

So they are production constrained for the foreseeable with zero anticipated demand drop, they can sell every high end model 3 they make but they drop the price because “it’s the right thing to do”?

Yes. It is called smart long term thinking. They are headed towards cutting the price anyways based upon their margin growth rate and Q1 cost cutting measures, so they are doing something that would happen anyways.

Your misunderstanding is that you don’t understand that Tesla has a long history of basing their prices on their Target Margin, and not on just trying to push prices as high as they can. I realize your mind is blown and you can’t comprehend this, and thus cannot accept this reality. But the history of Tesla cutting prices, adding new content, and making optional features standard, WHILE STILL HAVING HIGH DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH is well documented.

I’m sorry you are completely unwilling/unable to learn about how Tesla does their pricing.

They offered the mid-range version, which they hadn’t intended to do, because there wasn’t enough demand for the more expensive LR version, and they weren’t able to produce a $35k SR version.

Oh god. Not another bogus demand meme humper.

1) The first quarter of full LR ramp-up was Q3 2018. It was record sales an order of magnitude larger any other EV ever in the US.
2) The MR was launched weeks into Q4. Q4 BEAT Q3 sales by 15%!!! That is an annualized growth rate of 60%. (please tell me you understand the concept of annualized growth rates).

But you guys think that the MR was launched due to demand problems, right as the Model 3 was growing at a 60% annualized rate? Since when is a 60% growth rate a sign of a demand problem? Stop the idiocy.

Measuring growth rate over a tiny sample range with extenuating circumstances isn’t all that smart.

Boy, if two quarters is a tiny sample, then you would be doubly silly in your efforts to make false claims about demand based only on a single month of data.

Take your notorious endless brainless anti-Tesla trolling back to elektrek

It really is a tiny sample. It included a huge backlog of orders and an impending sunsetting of the tax credit. Neither of which will ever occur for the model 3 again.

Nah… I like it here… lots of interesting articles… I think I’ll stay. Shall I expect you to troll all of my posts with your little pea brain?

Lol… get over yourself.

Sorry about your tiny…. sample.

We all heard about how the Model S would never sell past the number of reservations they booked from boneheads like you.

And you nutters were wrong then, with Tesla going on to sell a full order of magnitude more Model S’s than they had reservations. They repeated it again with the X.

Sadly, you are too childish and ignorant to simply know the facts.

That’s prejudiced…Ive never said that in my life! *scoff* I’m so insulted…

The way I see it, the reason the price is dropping now is because Tesla was actually charging a premium on their cars to take advantage of the full tax credit while it lasted, since early-adopters were willing to pay it. Why leave that $7,500 on the table when you can benefit from it by charging more than you otherwise would? Once the tax credit disappears completely, I expect you’ll see all Tesla models drop in price again, to reflect the true competitive market price.

Teslas suck for leases (unless you can score a needle in a haystack 1-off deal). No discounts, high money factor (and soon to be gone fed tax credit) make for bad lease deals. Thinking offering Model 3 leases will somehow double deliveries is foolish.

Double…no. Increase their sales….definitely.

What doesn’t suck about Teslas, right?

Actually, I think Elon said recently — was it during the last investor’s conference call just a few days ago? — that only ~20% of Model S “sales” are leases. We might expect a somewhat greater percentage for the more down-market Model 3. However, altho Tesla offering leases will certainly create a significant boost to orders, I would guess not double or even close to that.

He also said there’s no plans to offer leases on the 3. They had all sorts of issues with the model S leases, specifically their having to deal with used car sales when they have no real used car sales department. They had to offload that task to another company that sounds to be doing an awful job of it.

“Before the Leningrad trolls show up”

You mean the “Russian trollfarms”?

Who will take the metal risk on the M3? And, if your answer is Tesla, who will take the term credit risk on a Caa1 issuer?

So any dissenting opinion is a “Troll”…..Gotta love those Tesla Fanboys…..Elon Musk = this Generation’s PT Barnum

Okay, my guess of 8,000 to 12,000 was high, but maybe they aren’t continuously producing 6,000 per week, or they shipped more than 3,000 per week overseas. Anyway, I only suspect Tesla will make sure they have quarterly increases vs last year. I suspect we have a better picture on April 1st as there might be a lot of inventory heading to east coast, etc.

Nice to meet you, Captain Obvious. All the stars are aligned for a bad US number…cars going to EU, Jan being a bad month for sales, loss of some credits…i shoot for 15k total on all models.

15.105 already! Many models are still missing, so I’d say at least 17k.

Dang! Half of my low ball prediction! The world is ending!

Well I expected a low number for Tesla US sales. January and February are low for all automakers in the US.
However I wouldn’t be surprised if 12,000 – 15,000 are in transit to Europe and China.
Tesla will want to have as many as possible in China before March 1, even if it causes delays to Europe.

That’s what I was thinking. At least 15,000 high spec units to Europe and China, with the remaining high spec units for the US, while gearing up for the base $35k model to launch in the US. 15,000 high margin units overseas makes a mixture of high spec and base $35k models(cloth seats, rear moonroof, etc) profitable in the US. But I expect high spec models will take priority as long as the demand is there during 1st quarter.

I guesstimated 5000. That was realistic, not a lowball. Glad to see Tesla beat it.

That’s actually better than I expected based on musk remark that almost all production was being directed to China and Europe.

What are you talking about. Anyone who orders in the US gets their car in a couple weeks if not “days” according to article. If the low US number had anything to do with China and Europe then US delivery times would be way up and US inventory non-existent. Instead some are getting their car in days according to article.

Gosh, you’re right. The low U.S. sales have nothing to do with the fact that Tesla is prioritizing overseas shipments this month, despite the fact that this very same thing happens in the first month of every quarter. Tesla is finally experiencing that financial collapse that hardcore serial Tesla bashers have been predicting, endlessly and fruitlessly, for 10 years now. I shall go out and sell all my Tesla stock at fire-sale prices tomorrow!

Oh, wait… that’s right, I don’t own any.

(Warning… the above comment may contain traces of sarcasm.)

Serial Tesla bashers are sooooooo predictable! 🙄

So are the indoctrinated

Warning, the Sturgeon General has advised that Fishy Comments may lead to Acute Cases of Sarcasm, Star Fishitis, and Other Smelly Nautical Side Defects, including, but Not Limited To: Shrimping of Intellect, Floundering Financial Frognosis, and a Halibut more Symptoms, all of which I am Too Crabby to go find, just now!

But, it seems some viewers of EV News, can’t hold their water, as they Spout Off with their Tropical Minows!

Enjoy! 😀😁😂😎😍

That would mean they’re keeping an inventory of TM3s for the US market. Typically these estimates are based on VIN registrations, so there’s no guarantee those 6500 cars were actually sold. It was guaranteed when they estimated this way in 2018 since every manufactured car had an order associated with it.. but that isn’t the case if they’re keeping an inventory.

So you are doubting the accuracy of this site’s numbers, and the Loveday’s work?

Well, you are just making a fool of yourself now and showing you actually don’t know anything about EV sales numbers. Because this is THE go-to site for accurate EV sales numbers and has been for years. This is a well known fact in the EV car community.

If you are going to start your first postings here about EV sales by throwing shade on the hard work the staff at Insideev’s has been doing for years to bring proven accurate numbers, you are in for a rocky ride.

Actually I missed a part of the article. It explicitly states: “We also know that Tesla had about 1,000 Model 3s in transit at the end of the last quarter. It makes sense to deduce that most Model 3 production beyond that (at least until the last week or so of December) was delivered to U.S. customers prior to Tesla switching to production efforts for Europe and China. This means that — in addition to those 1,000 or so cars — another 5,000+ were delivered in the U.S. before Tesla redirected its production efforts.” Hence, they came to the conclusion that 6500 vehicles were sold based on how many vehicles Tesla manufactured, and they assumed all were delivered. Here’s a quote from my post: ” It was guaranteed when they estimated this way in 2018 since every manufactured car had an order associated with it.. but that isn’t the case if they’re keeping an inventory.” An inventory which they need to maintain if they’re only producing cars for the European market… or else don’t plan to sell any 3’s in the US over the next 2 months. Buddy, you have a real passive aggressive attitude problem. Reviewing the data and… Read more »

hahaha!! That’s a lot of bloviating just to admit you can’t read!! Again, sadly you bumble around like drunkard with your pants down.

The Insideev’s numbers aren’t done for any one car maker, or for any particular readers. They have always been manufacturer neutral, and have been since 2011. So your blathering about fanbois only exposes your ignorance.

The praise for their work over the years detailing ALL carmakers has been widely praised by fans of every single EV they’ve details through the years. And rightly so.

Get ready for all your BS you try to pull on other websites to all get crushed and debunked in the most embarrassing fashion when you try to pull it off here.

Bud, you’re embarrassing yourself. You’ve literally not pointed out a single problem with my thoughts on these numbers. You’ve added nothing to the discussion. Your post is effectively an long winded (bloviated?) pronouncement of your love of for insideevs and belief that nothing they say is allowed to be questioned, and that anyone who questions their numbers is “one of those evil shorts that Elon told us about”.

Thing is… I haven’t attacked insideevs in any way. I’ve questioned whether vehicle production numbers should be used to estimate sales numbers. It’s a simple question… I don’t really know why that’s gotten your panties in a bunch… Maybe it’s time to dig out that massive wedgie jammed up your crack.

LOL… once again, get over yourself.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

OMfG, the sky is falling the sky is falling……….eject eject!!!!

Seems like the end of the growth story. 75% down compared to December. Wow!

Did you not read that all production is going overseas. People will continue to paint a negative narrative as Model 3s make their way globally. Oh well.

Yes, but are overseas shipments the chicken, or the egg?

US sales would be about the same even if they weren’t shipping overseas. There’s no apparent increase in wait times for US buyers, signaling supply was sufficient to meet demand.

to be fair I doubt they could sell 20k in US without introducing cheaper versions, but that was expected especially due FTC cut

There could be wait times now. These orders were from late December, early January, prior to all production shifting to overseas.

They only had 1010 Model 3s in transit at end of year, and ample unsold inventory, so most of these cars were January orders. All three variants said “January delivery” until the 20th or so, when P flipped to February. MR/AWD still had January, I.e. immediate delivery, until the month was almost over.

Note: S and X say “late February” but all Model 3 variants just say February. If that changes soon it’ll mean inventory is getting low, which I expect by mid-month.

That could mean that some of these cars were ordered in December, and now Tesla is on the hook for paying the customer $3750 due to them not getting the full tax credit, coming right out of each car’s margins. If the car was ordered in 2019, then the margins would only be reduced by $1750.

Nevermind, it says 1000 of these cars came from December orders. So that’s a margin loss of $1.75 million.

Yet again you make up bullpucky. You are off to an incredible start of fabricating BS. And BS that is AMAZINGLY easy to debunk!!!!

Your massive error is that you’ve ASSumed that every single order placed in December was placed BEFORE the deadline that Tesla put on orders being put in early enough to qualify for Tesla paying the tax difference for them.

You’ve wrongly conflated all the orders placed in December but delivered in Jan, with the subset of orders that were eligible for the guarantee but not delivered due to a problem on behalf of Tesla.

How many things can you get wrong posting on just one story?

The chicken was when Tesla announced in Q2 2018 that they would launch global sales in early 2019. The egg is that 9 months later they’re hatching this egg and have cars on ships that will emerge from their shell in Europe this month.

Why do you repeatedly and predictably ignore this fact, story after story after story, ad-nausea?

So far! Probably about 1,000 to 1,500 or so, per week, of the 4,700+ being made, are held for USA Sales, until about Feb. 15th to 28th, then March Production will be mostly, if not all, for USA & Canada. Then, on April 1st, to about Mid to late May, a heavy Overseas push, again, with late May, to June, focused on USA/Canada Sales, again!

These are My expectations, evidenced by the basic desire for Tesla to generate the fastest cash flow, while still getting on satisfying Overseas Model 3 Demand and Interest! On a “Per Quarter Reporting Flow”, this makes the most sense!

Yes most production going overseas WITH no increase in US wait times. I would think what that means would be obvious.

The many many M3s still filling the local Tesla lot seem to indicate that there is plenty of inventory to sell here in the US. Not all of the cars were shipped to China/EU unless you’re saying they plan to take cars from here in Portland and put them on a boat? This condition persisted throughout January, never a lull in M3 stock at that lot.

Why is it all going overseas?

Because US demand for current versions is far below their production capacity.

They’re focusing on high margin AWD/P in Europe to boost margins and shipping as many cars as possible to China before 3/31 when the tariff may go from 15% back to 40%.

Ah, the old time machine theory. Where Tesla took a time machine from Q2 2018 when they PUBLICLY announced they were going to start shipping to the EU starting at the beginning of 2019.

In reality, Tesla would have gone through all of their decision making about launching EU sales well before they announced it publicly in Q2 2018. It has absolutely nothing to do with current US demand.

But heck, you’ve been humping the BS “demand” meme for years, and yet Tesla total global sales have been doing nothing but growing despite your daily humping of the fake “demand” meme. Next thing you will claim is that the cars on cargo ships haven’t been sold yet because of some fake demand problem, instead of the fact that they are currently on a cargo ship.

The bogus “demand” meme has been beaten like a dead horse since 2012. Give it a rest.

Just checked the numbers in Europe and China… down YoY!

How exactly do you expect Tesla to deliver the boatload of cars that are are arriving starting Feb. 5th, in January? There is a one-time product delivery delay whenever ANY company opens a new overseas market.

It takes about a month to fill the pipeline with product. This is a one-time delay in deliveries, where the first cars built for the new market, and shipped to the new market obviously can’t be sold until they arrive in the new market. On top of that, Tesla has traditionally had a manufacturing step in the EU that also slows the pipeline.

Sorry you don’t understand that the cars put on ships in Jan. in the US obviously won’t show up in Jan. sales numbers in the EU and China

“But heck, you’ve been humping the BS “demand” meme for years,”

That’s a flat-out lie, NIx.

I’ve focused Model 3 demand since early July. Sustained demand for 35k+ versions is important, but what’s absolutely crucial is pent-up demand for 45k+ versions. That’s what’s keeping them alive while they try to cut enough costs to make 35k possible.

“when they PUBLICLY announced they were going to start shipping to the EU starting at the beginning of 2019.”

Links, please. The first firm announcement I saw was in early Q3, after they’d exhausted pent-up demand for LR-RWD in the US and knew pent-up demand for AWD-P would not carry them past yearend.

When I provide the link, will you admit I’m correct, and that you are wrong and drop forever this idiotic meme?

Tired of playing games with you!

Here is you humping the demand meme nearly a full year before you claim:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-has-delivered-more-than-250000-evs-55-in-the-u-s/#comment-1335339

You’ve been humping the Tesla demand meme forever, with the S and X only to be proven wrong, and now you are repeating it with the 3.

So here is the link. Now do you have the courage to admit you were wrong? Probably not. I expect you to try and argue that May is somehow part of Q3 instead of Q2, or simply ignore reality and facts and simply continue your fake demand meme bullpucky by intentionally blinding yourself to the facts. Just like you did for the Model S/X.

“LHD for Europe & Asia first half of next year. RHD probably middle of next year.
3:55 PM – 25 May 2018 ”

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1000148304016105472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Model S/X demand is stable at ~100k/year. I say that’s not “super hot” and you accuse me of “humping the demand meme”? It’s getting hard to tell when you’re serious and when you’re just trolling.

Thanks for the Musk tweet link. I don’t consider “first half of next year” to be the same as “beginning of 2019”, especially when coming from Mr. Schedule himself, but reasonable minds can differ.

So… if you order a TM3 in the US, you won’t get it until they’re done fulfilling shipments to Europe? What’s the wait time, 2-3 months? Does that mean super low US sales through March?

I agree, I asked the question of those who fail to see or believe the fact. Obviously if they could sell every mud and high range model 3 in the States they wouldn’t be prioritizing overseas shipments

1) Because Tesla announced way back in Q2 2018 that they would be making a huge push overseas at the beginning of 2019, so Tesla has been planning this for a long time, and now it is happening.

2) To be very clear, doing things like booking cargo transport ships is done well in advance of actual shipping dates. So Tesla was planning this long before they opened up their order configurator to European orders in the first week of December.

3) Tesla has ALWAYS had a long tradition of pushing as many cars in the first month of every single quarter to overseas markets. They’ve been doing it for years.

Newsflash…. I did and it’s bogus! Less than 20k EU buyers configured their M3 after almost 3 years of waiting. Less than 2k buyers in China did the same.
Q1 will be a disaster and I can’t wait to hear your excuses for Q2. People should finally realize the limited demand for such a high-priced car. There’s almost no organic demand left anymore. We are still talking backlog here.

In America, there are no Provinces in Canada, only Igloos; no other Countries Exist, and America is #1!
🙄

Just watch an American Weather Channel to figure this out!

Nice try troll

Another Euro point of view

Troll yourself.

u first.

You’re so practiced at it that you could give lessons.

Either you cannot read or you are as bad with numbers like the orange one.

I really liked the articles on EV sites last few months on how Tesla Model 3 is becoming the best selling sedan in America (when sedans are dying).
Can someone tell me the Camry, Acord, Elantra, Altima, Sentra, Sonata sales in January? Were they more or less than this estimate?

Another Euro point of view

This is exactly what I wrote would happen back in September last year, the flak I took then..ouch.

Your comment must’ve gotten lost amidst the other endless negative Tesla ones.

When have you ever posting any of your serial Tesla bashing comments without including some gratuitous FÜD, “Another Euro…”?

You post here for only one thing, and it certainly isn’t to promote meaningful discussion or to give your honest opinions.

$35k Model 3? Anyone? Bueller?

Are you planning to trade in your Bolt once the $35k Model 3 becomes available?

When the $35k Model 3 delivers later this year we’ll be making the same ‘Bueller? Anyone’ comment to bro1999.

bro1999 actually spent $44K to buy his own personal Bolt, including shipping!!!

The price equivalent (after adjusting for inflation and the dropping value of the US dollar) would be a currently available Tesla MR for the same amount of money! Ouch! No wonder he’s grumpy!

Having a $35K EV doesn’t seem to be helping your Chevy Bolt BEV US sales very much. Even with higher priced S/X/3 BEV’s, Tesla outsold your Chevy Bolt EV by a full order of magnitude in the US. Roughly 10 Tesla BEV’s for each GM BEV.

Also: GM Volt replacement? Anyone? Bueller?

I think you should spend more time worrying about getting some life support to your baby Chevy’s US EV sales, and less time trying to bash Tesla. Bashing Tesla isn’t going to bring up sales of your Chevy Bolt in the US, or save the Volt from impending death.

It’s odd, bro1999 always clams up when stark reality is brought to his Tesla bashing attention.

So you’re saying that since a $35k Bolt doesn’t sell well a $35k Tesla won’t either?

Nope. Just saying that $35K isn’t some magical number like a switch on the wall for triggering sales. The car has to actually be compelling too. This is proven out by the numbers I put in my post, where despite the huge price gap, Tesla outsells GM’s $35K EV by a roughly 10:1 ratio.

Tesla Model 3 U.S. deliveries Dip As U.S. Model 3 Demand falls off.. * 🙁 *

Logically they need to ship as much as they can to EU & China in January and February, then dedicate more for domestic production in March to limit the damage of having too many vehicles on the boat (sequentially) at the end of the quarter. Hopefully they will keep adding 5-10k vehicles in transit each quarter for 2019 to limit the impact.

It’s no more damaging to have a car on a boat at the end of a quarter than in the middle. In fact, a steady flow is more efficient and this less damaging. Tesla does the start/stop cadence to make the numbers look better.

It’s pure optics. Hopefully that are finally moving away from it.

Not as long as idiots rule the stock market.

Wow! You STILL don’t understand Tesla’s quarterly delivery cadence!! The damage of having a car on the boat at the end of the quarter is that the same car could have been sold if it were delivered to a customer in the US. That puts the revenue in the same quarter as they book the costs of production.

Now it would be fine for some low growth legacy car company for the same number of cars being in the pipeline at the end of each quarter. It would equalize on both ends of the pipeline.

But Tesla isn’t a slow growth company. They are a massively high growth company, where by definition the pipeline isn’t constant. Which we can clearly see this month as the pipeline for the EU is being fed but the sales haven’t been booked and idiots are going nuts. Tesla has no choice with their rapid growth but to manage their pipeline like they do, EXACTLY to avoid the idiocy happening this month and in this story.

“Wow! You STILL don’t understand Tesla’s quarterly delivery cadence!! ”

I understand Tesla said they changed to a more efficient cadence. Did they lie?

Q1 2108 Update Letter (May 2):
We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. We believe this will provide a better customer experience and reduce the stress on our delivery system.

Q2 2018 Update Letter (August 1):
” While historically most deliveries were made towards the end of each quarter, our delivery pattern should smooth out in the next two quarters. ”

“That puts the revenue in the same quarter as they book the costs of production.”

You know many things about Tesla, and I often upvote your comments, but you do not understand GAAP accrual accounting. Tesla books production cost when they sell the car, not when they make it. If they make a car in Q1 and deliver it to Europe in Q2 they book both that car’s revenue AND its cost in Q2. This is very basic stuff, yet often misunderstood.

As Musk said: “The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It’s just like people literally don’t have the money to buy the car.”

Which is I guess true for almost any car.

Obviously, you are the smartest guy in the room. Tell us when Tesla will fail so that we can short the stock at the right time and make a fortune.

Another Euro point of view

Tesla stock is so high for about the same reasons Trump was elected.

Calm down. Why does Tesla always either have to crush everything, or totally fail?

Do I think that demand isn’t an issue? No, demand is clearly an inhibitor to more sales, otherwise they would continue to sell cars in the US, where they make the most money.
Do I think Tesla is doomed because of that? Also no.

Shorting stock doesn’t require that a company goes bankrupt to be a successful investment. Not that I’ve ever shorted a stock in my life (no margin account)… but I have considered it from time to time. 😉

Shorting is successful when the share price goes down, meaning investors’ overall expectations for the company’s performance have declined.

I wish Tesla the best, but I really think they need to start at least limited deliveries of the Model Y ASAP in 2020, and hopefully more than that. Model 3 demand/production probably will hold up OK in 2019, based on non-U.S. sales and margins-damaging price cutting (SR model, dropping mandatory upgrade packages as needed). However, especially with China getting vehicles from the Tesla factory there, Fremont production capacity might not be fully used in 2020 — if they don’t start ramping up Model Y. Just like Model S/X sales pretty much plateaued recently, that will happen to Model 3, much quicker because of much sharper volume increase in a limited time frame. That would still make Tesla a very successful higher end auto manufacturer, but a CUV would fit the current market tastes much better, and enable continued growth outside of the Chinese market. Please make the Model Y simple (no FWD style nonsense) and skip the hubris on how Tesla will show how to really run an auto factory. KISS will enable Tesla to continue to shake things up, while Model Y delays will risk stagnation at best, especially if the world/U.S. economy slows significantly next year.
Another Euro point of view

Note how fast the narrative is now shifting to Model Y 🙂

Do Not Read Between The Lines

What?
The article didn’t mention it.
1 comment has mentioned it.

Only in your head.

Tesla needs to get costs down so they can lower prices, release the SR and get sufficient margin on all sales.
The key difference from this point last year is that they’re much closer to getting there and are in a position to pay off the most pressing debt, March’s convertible note.
It doesn’t matter what happens with any other model they’re working on.

About as fast as trolls like you and your troll-fest friends come in here to spread your serial anti-Tesla FUD to support your short positions.

Go back to Seeking Shorters.

Pls go back to doing whatever you did before you came here.
Is better for you.

Note how fast serial Tesla bashers return to their tired old worn-out argument citing a dropoff in domestic sales in the first month of a quarter shows that demand for Tesla cars has fallen off a cliff.

Since Model 3 sales are now in the same 3-month rotation that Model S and Model X sales use, this was entirely expected.

Sadly, the Tesla haters trying to use this as an excuse to pretend something is “wrong” was entirely predictable too. *Sigh*

Your record is broken. Nudge the needle, troll.

The Haters are all stock shorts Shooting Negative BS in their Best Interest to get the stock to go down . There should Be a Law against these Liars ! It’s Not Right that they get to Lie Without any Consequences What So Ever..

Adding / Offering A Certified Towing Rating, on the Model 3, will affect a whole new Buyer Segment, maybe as much as the Dual Motor Option.

troll.

Just to play devil’s advocate, why would you sell to Europe and China with the expense of tariffs and shipping when you can sell the inventor you ALREADY HAVE in the USA

You are very bad at playing devil’s advocate, because the answer is very clear:

Long Term Growth.

More markets == more long term growth. This is the same reason why successful regional businesses go global ALL the TIME!! Look over the companies in the Dow and tell me how many stayed regional, and how many went global. Tesla is no different, they have to expand globally for the same long term growth reasons that all multi-national companies take hits to grow into international markets. This is the cornerstone of international trade dating back a thousand years.

Sorry your devil is so short in thinking.

Another Euro point of view

The narrative rescue squad at work 😆

Have you not read the Tesla “Secret Plan”? Tesla’s focus on their long-term growth plans are well known and obvious to anyone who doesn’t intentionally blind themselves to seeing it.

Spoiler alert: Tesla’s long term “Secret Plan” is working even better than even Tesla expected it would, despite about a roughly 2 quarter delay in Model 3 production. Even inside of Tesla they were only planning on less than 100K reservations before the Model 3 launch, and had to react by greatly expanding their production plans.

Another Euro point of view
I hear you Nix and indeed so far all has been quite successful, specifically on the fund raising part but what I find funny is that what is happening now (falling demand in USA AT CURRENT PRICE POINT) is basically what Musk is saying when he talks about nutty demand but his cars are still too expensive (so in other words high interest but low demand). New situation is that Tesla followers stopped to believe what Elon is saying as it does not fit their own narrative, that includes you. So as Musk is saying that his cars are too expensive from this situation there are not a thousand options. Forget about any production in California. That will just never bring the costs down enough to compete with the large established car manufacturers. Now the Chinese production option. The usual arrangement for western manufacturers is to bring the technology, bring the funding, team with a local partner and ONLY in those conditions you are allowed to repatriate back home the fat profits you are doing in China back. GM and VW group are doing this very successfully for a very long time now. In Tesla case, because ON PAPER, you… Read more »

They already have a partner. Panasonic.

Sadly, you don’t understand this, and thus your entire long ranting post completely disconnected from reality.

LMFAO at the Another Euro Negative Spin Doctor and his serial anti-Tesla FUD.
Why don’t you go suck on your Audi A6 “Clean Diesel” exhaust and be happy!

Why would Tesla continue to target only domestic sales for the Model 3, when the backlog of demand for the higher (i.e., more expensive) trim levels is exhausted, whereas the overseas backlog hasn’t even been touched?

You trolls should try to come up with some scenario that is at least halfway plausible. As it is, not only are you insulting the intelligence of readers here, you’re managing to come across as too lazy to bother even trying.

If you’re going to go to the time and effort to do something, then do it well. Even trolling!

You can’t sell an inventor in the USA because we’ve outlawed human trafficking.

Bahaha

In several countries in europe there ´ll benefits buying EVs. Example: Italy and Austria ´ll give you money if you buy a car that´s cheaper than 50k€. That´s the price for the MR. But at the moment tesla has to pay custom – 10%. If these 10% drops (and there are good reasons, the custom for japanese cars dropped this week) maybe the AWD ´ll cost under 50k€.

Despite the normal low January sales, with only 6,500 units delivered in the U.S. the Model 3 cumulative sales rose to 148,046, more than enough to surpass the Model S as the U.S. second best selling plug-in car ever (InsideEVs reported last month a total of 144K Model S cars + 875 sold in January was not enough to keep second place).
Thus, the Volt continues as the all-time best selling plug-in car in the U.S. (InsideEVs reported 152,144 + 675 in January), but not for long. The gap for the first place closed to just under 5,000 units, so I would expect the Model 3 to become the U.S. best selling plug-in car at the end of this month. The Model 3 is indeed a rising star, literally, it has been quite a meteoric rise!

Lot’s of Smoke, before it’s Rocket Engines Lit! Stage 1 is Now reaching MECO, before Stage 2 Engine Lights!

Lots of North American people want the Base Range Model 3 in USA & in Canada, but I suspect, initial shipments will still include the Premium Interior, plus Glass Roof, meaning a $40,000 US$ Starting Price.

Even so, I know some, who want Base Range & Dual Motor, so even when the Mandatory Premium Package becomes an open Option, there will likely still be a lot of interest in the $40,000 Base Range, Dual Motor, Model 3!

The Volt, all-time best selling plug-in car in the US, and now headed for the dust-bin of history, leaving behind no family. So sad. GM made zero effort to build on the Volt’s rock solid powertrain. How hard would it have been to make a CUV based on the first gen Volt, that GM could have introduced a couple years after the first Volt. I.e. 2013 GM should have introduced a compact CUV based on the Volt: it would have been super easy. Just lift the suspension, lift the roofline, stretch the length about 6 inches to add necessary space for passengers and luggage. Tweak the battery, engine, and electric motor as necessary to maintain competitive acceleration. They could have used that first gen Voltec system with a moderate boost to power output, virtually unchanged. The increase in space from lifting the roof and extending the length would partially overcome the biggest problem of the Volt: cramped interior space. Offer it first as a Cadillac, later you could tweak appearance and size and rebadge to Buick, Chevy and GM. One of the Volts biggest problems was the T-shaped battery that took up too much passenger and storage space. There should… Read more »

A few days ago I said for US 70% of sales compared with Q4 2018 would be very very very optimistic, some went “mad” at me.
I was obviously wrong – I was indeed being very very very very optimistic.
Sales in January will be lower than in the following months but it seems obvious that in the US they’ll be lucky to have in Q1 half of the sales of Q4/2018.
Tesla can’t lower prices like many suggested – they’ve already discounted $2k starting 2019 – that’s more than the profit they had in Q4 2018. I know they can improve efficiency but it seems very unlikely they can go much lower any time soon.
Europe sales for model 3 will be big this quarter, the question is for how long they’ll be sustained. My guess is one quarter and half. Model S and X sales will for sure go down in Europe in a big number.

I think it will be very hard for Tesla to sell more cars in 2019 compared to 2018, and they’ll be cheaper.
Tesla needs big sales in China and new models fast.

Tesla will sell a lot more cars in 2019 than 2018. They guided 360-400k vs. 245k, and they generally hit their unit guidance (as opposed to Musk’s blue sky production forecasts).

Musk said they have to ship MR to Europe by May, and they will apparently ship it to China this quarter. That will buy them a few more months before they have to go to SR everywhere.

You’re right, for a moment I forgot first half of 2018 was very small for model 3.
I stand corrected and fix to – it will be hard for Tesla to keep the numbers of Q3 and Q4 of 2018 during quarters of 2019…. and that’s about 360k cars.

Yes, the Q3/Q4 comparisons will not show the huge y/y growth of Q1/Q2.

Last year was 84k in Q3 and 90k in Q4. This year should be something like:
80k / 95k / 100k / 105k = 380k total

That’s about 15% y/y growth for Q3/Q4.

Yeah, we’ll see solid incremental growth in Q3 and 4. Model 3 production has been steadily increasing, and should go from current ~5000/week to 7000/week over the next 6 months. 40% increase in production is big.

The mass export begins! “The carmaker is focusing on Europe and China right now.” Tesla is shipping cars from the Port of San Francisco, Port 80 on a weekly basis. Currently CSCC Europe is loading. Several ships are in transit including the Glovis Captain, Glovis Cosmos, and Glovis Symphony. Each carrier can carry up to 6000 vehicles.

Per “Each carrier can carry up to 6000 vehicles.” Or about 8-10 days of Model 3 Production, alone. Or, about 1 Weeks Production of 3 + S + X!

Counterattack! It’s been years since a US company put up much of a fight against the premium foreign brands like BMW and Lexus. Tesla whipped them good in the US and now is taking the fight to other shores.

Build a better product and look what happens. Electric is the future, and Tesla stepped on the accelerator.

Tesla in OR was offering 24 hour delivery in January so don’t think there’s any relationship between overseas sales and domestic sales at this point.

Tesla can probably sell as many as it builds for at least next couple of years.

Sad to see such a sharp drop-off in the US. I really expected the monthly number would not dip below 25k again after June of 2018……oh well…….We need some more new compelling models that are available everywhere — not just in the country of California.

January was bad but others are not going to be as bad, I think sales will double in the next couple of months – but still way behind Q3 and Q4 of 2018.

Your estimates are based on VINs? Car companies are known for registering a large lot of VINs at once for the cars they’ve produced. Before it was fine to estimate Tesla sales based on these VINs since every Tesla was accounted for by an order. However, if orders have dried up, and Tesla is ONLY currently producing cars out of Fremont for the European and Chinese markets, then there’s a good chance Tesla built up an inventory for the US market and registered their VINs. Therefore, they may not have sold through those 6500 cars.

Go back to trolling Electrek. Sorry everyone blocks you over there so you have to find somewhere new.

You have an odd definition of what “trolling” is. My post gave a valid re-interpretation of the data. Is it correct / incorrect? We’ll definitely see. Want to point out errors in my thinking… feel free. This is a comments section, discussion is welcome.

Kind of ironic you’ve trolled multiple posts of mine, and then claimed I’m the troll. Well, at least I’m not a hypocrite! Nah Nah!

Weird, I didn’t know you personally knew all of the readers at Electrek. Do you share recipes too?

upL8N8 – InsideEVs estimates are not based on VINs, at least not in the way you describe. They use various channel checks along with state-level data such as title registration. IMHO they also have some inside sources, though they won’t admit it. Anyway, it’s a lot of work and they do a good job. All estimates are subject to error, but I consider 6500 to be pretty solid.

Tesla ended Q4 with 1010 Model 3s in transit and roughly 7000 of unsold inventory. The unsold inventory includes a few hundred for showrooms and test drives. We know they built some US cars in January, because Tesla stalkers show 2019 VINs on lots near Tesla stores. Most January production went overseas, though, they’ve been loading ships every few days.

Does everyone of those model 3s have to be driven onto the ship individually? how many drivers must work there? Tesla could save a fortune if they all drove themselves onto the ship.

This hasn’t stopped stock analysts from getting on CNBC and declaring Tesla’s Model 3 demand “has collapsed”. The shorters never sleep.