Tesla Model 3 Sales Rocket To New High In July, Sets Records

Tesla Model 3 Performance


In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July.

The moment of true inclusion of electric cars in the mainstream is now here with the Model 3 blasting past all previous marks by leaps and bounds.

How high was July?

Well, instead of four-digit figures, we’re now in the fives.

By our estimations, Tesla sold an astounding 14,250 Model 3s in July. Shocked? How can you not be? Of course, that’s the highest ever for sales of a single plug-in electric car in any month.

That figure soundly beats the results from May and June combined (12,312) and propels the Model 3 into a lead for the year that won’t be challenged by any other car. The YTD tally now stands at an estimated 38,617, which moves the Model 3 into first place all-time in annual sales, ahead of the old record of 30,200 LEAFs sold in 2014. And remember, there are still 5 months left in the year.

Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X...

These two plug-ins were outdone by their baby brother, but that’s expected.

For July, we estimate the following for sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 1,200 units in July
  • Tesla Model X  – 1,325 units in July

Both of those figures are down considerably from the June push, but close to in line with July 2017 sales for each of the two larger Teslas.

Tesla as a whole now holds a commanding lead in plug-in electric car sales for the year and will not be challenged by any other automaker for the YTD win.

Later this evening, Tesla will post it Q2 financials, followed by the call. Of course, InsideEVs will be on the call and our coverage will follow. We’d be extremely surprised if Tesla gave actual delivery numbers later today. Perhaps a market share chart, production numbers, etc. Some hints maybe, but we don’t expect precise figures. If numbers are released, we’ll update this post accordingly.

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216 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Sales Rocket To New High In July, Sets Records"

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This would be amazing if it turns out to be accurate. Hoping!

That is on the low end of my estimate, they must be having a hard time delivering them, as in getting them from the factory to the customer… 😉 I guess that is a good problem to have.

Yes, I think their distribution network is struggling now… One of the shorts posted a video on twitter yesterday talking to a truck driver in Burbank, that said he could not unload his cars, because the Burbank lot was too full.

Same in Atlanta back when I picked up early July. Lot was stuffed full and there was a fully loaded truck parked across the street on the shoulder.

I have been to the Charlotte, NC store a few times in the last month and their lot was completely packed with Model 3s. Every time I was there, there were trucks lined up to unload more.

Why the lots of service center are full insteadthe cars getting delivered

Because the cars don’t (yet) deliver themselves.

Service centers are who prep the cars for sale after they come off the trucks. Same as with any other car company.

But the Burbank lot is a storage lot for excess inventory, right? How is it related to delivery issues, other than there being no customer to deliver those cars to?
I hear Tesla started the referral program for Model 3 now. It’s an indication where the issues are.

Performance variant only. Clearly they want to boost sales of the top-end one as much as they can. Doesn’t apply to the other variants.

It is a logistic distribution center.
Factory => Burbank => rest of the USA.
Normal logistic organization.
Problem is end of the line, handing over cars to customers.

I picked up last week and we could barely get in and out of there for how many cars were in the lot. Appointments were back to back, and everyone was clearly moving as fast as they could. This is an order of magnitude increase in how many people and cars the delivery centers have to moved, and they’re clearly the bottleneck. If the deliveries are really close to 15k, then I’m betting there’s still a fairly high number in transit as well.

They need management in or have the paperwork and finances ready

I was in and out in about 30 minutes. Had my payment ready, sign about four places, sit in the car and get a few things explained (that I already knew) and left. There were four other people picking up at the same time doing the same thing. I think they’re delivering a lot, but they’re just not used to delivering dozens of cars a day.

To be fair, I think the S/X delivery is more time consuming. They actually have a bunch of 30 second training videos for the 3 that they want you to watch before coming in so they can streamline. But I think there are certain things they have to demo for safety reasons.

I went to the Tesla store in Costa Mesa yesterday to show my brother the Model 3P and I thought I had walked into an Apple store at product launch. People were standing and sitting in every inch of the space waiting for deliveries.

WAIT, SO TESLA WASN’T ACTUALLY “BURNING CASH” it was actually just Investing in Itself, on CAPEX? Capital Expenditures like any Normal Startup? You don’t say.

Capital expenditures don’t count as losses. Never have, never will, unless they depreciate.

There sure are a lot of people that do not understand basic corporate accounting… Loss from Operations seems simple enough, but some still cannot grasp what that means… Investing, or CapEx is something completely different.

R&D doesn’t count as capital expenditures, but it certainly consists of investments for the future rather than costs incurred because of manufacturing or sales or administrative activities. For years, R&D has been a huge drag on the bottom line because Tesla was a small company, but each and every dollar paid off and will continue to pay off with their high-margin industry-leading products.

Yes, but most auto companies put R&D in their cost of revenue, so it is accounted as cost of goods sold. Tesla puts R&D as OPEX, because they are trying to sell gross margin numbers to wall street. Either way, when you finish the accounting the bottom line is the same, Tesla had a Net loss of 743M in Q2 2018, and burned another 500M in cash above the losses… They also added 450M in new debt, and substantially increased their accounts payable balance.

New debt doesn’t tell the whole story. Actually, Tesla cut their liabilities from $24,418,130 at the end of 2017, down to $22,642,887 by the end of Q2. They are actually reducing liabilities now by nearly $2B INCLUDING the $450M in new debt (sadly you won’t be able to even understand how this is possible).

June 30 2018 Total liabilities 22,642,887

Dec 31 2017 Total liabilities 24,418,130

Why do you keep twisting facts where you can so easily be proven wrong by primary source data from SEC reports and NASDAQ official numbers?

It’s sort of irrelevant how other car companies report operating expenses, but it should be noted that they don’t include the cost of running dealerships because they’re typically owned by franchises whereas all Tesla vehicles are sold in-house. That’s actually the majority of Tesla’s operating expense.

Q2 is also irrelevant because they have cash on hand and they’re profitable in Q3 and predict continued profitability and positive free cash flow in perpetuity.

Years ago, I explained it to bears on SeekingAlpha: Suppose you find a gold mine under your house. (Tesla discovering how to make the first desirable EV). You dig a little gold, make a little money with a few guys in a garage (the Roadster). You hire more people from skimpy cash flow. This is called growing organically. Its safe but won’t make you a billionaire. So, throwing caution to the winds, you go out and raise billions of dollars from bonds and investors to “grow as fast as you can, without wasting money” said Elon Musk about factory expansion. That is Tesla’s hyper-explosive growth, fueled by debt and equity, that will sink most companies, but pays off big when it works. The bears actually agreed with my analogy; they just were sure Tesla will fail like 99% of other car companies like DeLorean. They had great arguments that Tesla was overvalued and often ran on financial fumes. So when Tesla actually delivered a great Model 3 late, they were amazed and as confused as a pop star who busted out of an outfit on stage. Their shorts fell off! 🙂

I am shocked that the Model 3 numbers are so low, maybe June numbers are wrong because Tesla didn’t hit 200,000 until early July…

This is US-only and Q2 numbers were confirmed by Tesla. What’s strange about July’s numbers is that the Model 3 is selling over seven times as quickly as its nearest EV competitor, much more than any luxury vehicle, and is now the 7th or 8th best selling car in the United States for July overall.

It’s hard to overstate the effect. For example, Ford US car sales are down 12k YoY (-27%) and they don’t have a single car in the same ballpark as the Model 3 in sales. The Model 3 is also selling at a rate 3-4 times as the BMW 3-series in the US.

You can’t really extrapolate Tesla’s numbers to other makes. You don’t know what Tesla’s normal sales rate will be once the initial demand as been satisfied. As well as the model 3 is doing it also taking sales away from the S/X which hurts Tesla since they have higher margins than the 3.

I think that you’re right that we have no idea what will happen when Tesla tries to satisfy the demand of the $35k version of their vehicle. Their sales right now are paltry by comparison. It’s a good rule of thumb that Tesla yearly sales always eventually exceed their reservation numbers at launch (see Model S and X). Day-one crowds are always the tip of the iceberg. People definitely want this car.

While I agree the Model 3 looks like a winner in sales, yearly sales higher than launch reservation numbers would mean the Model 3 would be selling better than the Toyota Camry. At $10k-$30k more expensive per car, I don’t see that happening just yet.

The Camry sold about 900,000 in 2017 and Tesla had Model 3 reservations of about 450,000 so I agree that the Camry should outsell the Model 3.

US it sold about 387k, which is low enough that Model 3 could possibly outsell it, especially if it eats into its sales at all.

Which it will since once people include fuel costs, they’ll definitely be saving money if they are ordering a top trim (i.e. SE, XSE). And the Avalon might as well be dead, Toyota should forget even developing a refresh if it doesn’t have a plug.

Only ~150-200k of the production is meant for the US, so we won’t see if it can outsell the Camry.

Sort of depends on how they manage inventory next year. If they do reach 10,000/week that is 500,000 per year. They plan on shipping expensive models to Europe first, if they only shipped 120,000 there they might outsell it. Also, sedan sales are down anyway and if the Model 3 takes any sales from Accord and Camry (which it is) they could maybe make best selling sedan with 350,000 sales. Just saying it is a definite possibility, maybe not what they will do though. I imagine they will favor US demand first though because of costs.

They won’t do 500k next year. If they manage to do 400k that would be awesome.

100k minimum to Europe.
30k minimum to China.

Plus there is no need to increase distribution in the US to levels that they won’t need.

Hopefully they will open orders to Europe by October.

Anyway, there is absolutely no chance of 350k Model 3’s sold in the US in a year. They would need the other models to totally collapse to beat them. 😉

To get down to brass tacks, that point where Tesla can build a car that sells in Camry and Accord numbers each year is when the game is really on and ICEmakers know they need to respond or get out of the way. That time will come. The Model Y needs to hit the ground running and we have no factory that can build that car as of yet. When Ys are selling in the 10,000 per month range we can look forward to an affordable Tesla for the masses. My play would be a crossover between Honda CR-V and Pilot size on whose platform a sedan can be built. The reverse of 3 to Y. The mainstream fighter crossover and sedan needs 250 miles range and the fastest charging yet. Civic and Corolla sell like Mc Donalds burgers so the affordabe Teslas need to be near their size but just a bit larger. Interior capacity will be near the larger midsized competitors due to the cabover design needing no firewall up front. Both crossover and sedan should be hatchbacks. MSRP starting in the mid $20s for a stripper with cloth seats and metal roof. Should these cars come before… Read more »

There’s no reason the Y couldn’t be built on the same lines as the 3 at Fremont, China and Europe. GA2 produces both the S and X on the same line. Tesla won’t need to build a dedicated plant for each new product, just for products that are substantially different – like the Semi, which I hope is built at or near the Gigafactory.

Please Camary and Accords and Civics are gold standards

They are, but they’re still under attack and have everything to lose.

Funny you should mention Accord and Civic, as they are among the top five trade-ins for Model 3 🙂

Too funny!

Demand will only grow from here.

Unless the upcoming competition from Audi and BMW prove to be be solid competitors.
Tesla has a wide open window until then, whenever that is.

What upcoming competition? The Audi that may come out next year is in the Model S/X price range and BMW has nothing coming out at all.

BMW are building a whole new plant in Hungary to produce 150,000 “new model” cars, an ICE and EV mix. Also, they could just take the i3s, give it a little larger battery and a little less “unique rear doors”, lower the base price and it should sell reasonably well.

The doors are fine, the battery upgrade is on the way already. All they need to do is lower the price. If it can start at the same price as a 2-series, they’ll move as many as they can make in record time. As it is, they already can’t even keep up with current demand and current prices and specs.

They should focus on the iX3 or whatever they are calling their SUV. Put out a bazzillion of those, ON TOP of their i3 sales.

The i3 was never designed for large volume production. They could redesign the exterior; but they can’t make it cheaper without essentially designing a new car from scratch.

The Huyndai Kona EV is looking really good to me. The 60 kWh Nissan LEAF will be available at $35000 long before the model 3 is.

100k Leafs…and 30k Konas… and then? 30k Niro EV… it’s not much competition. It just adds to the growing market.

How long will it take to talk Hyundai, KIA or any other ICEmaker to build their EV in respected mainstream numbers?

A $40,000 LEAF will not go over well. You have a small, new automaker in Tesla who is struggling to meet the numbers of an eager market vs. a huge established automaker who pains over building BEVs that make their ICE models look bad in comparison.

Put yourselves in their position. Which predicament would you rather be in?

I personally feel Tesla has the advantage here even though they need money, factories and more battery plants.

Everyone says the big OEMs can just turn up the spigot and just swamp Tesla in BEV sales. That may be true, but at what cost to their enormous cash machine in ICE parts and service?

I agree. Jaguar has the I-Pace arriving soon to go head to head with the S, but other than that, Tesla has no real competition this year or most of next. The Leaf and the Bolt are going to get thrashed by the 3, even if the base model has yet to arrive.

i-pace isnt head to head with model s, no reasonable charging network exists today for long distance travel. Also has a lot less space, maybe if you compare it to the model 3 thats a more reasonable comparison interior space wise. And nothing like tesla autopilot. Still a good jaguar car, probably one of the best they have.

Jag customer rent or fly. Look at the income brackets. We have superchargers off my exit and there’s no one there at anytime

I take my Model S on road trips. It’s been to 8 states and has over 44,000 miles on it. It’s rare to be at a supercharger and not see another car plugged in at some point during the charging session.

There is still no competition. The I-Pace is a great car, but production, not including Waymo, will be about 15,000 per year or less. You might want one. You won’t get one.

The Model 3 sized I-Pace?

I-Pace, a boutique car to be produced in boutique numbers. It isn’t a sedan, and its not a crossover by dimension. Its more like a Toyota Venza or Honda Crosstour. Both vehicles that crashed in their segment of the marketplace. Does the luxury BEV market need a Venza?

Jaguar is creating a racing league to prove that I-Pace deserves to be looked at as a performance vehicle. Does Porsche do the same for the Cayenne Turbo? The whole prospect of “hot rod” SUVs escapes me. Are you gonna take the wife’s MPV or minivan out to the track? L 🙂 L.

I-Pace and Kona will compete with Model Y.

I don’t think describing them as competitors is entirely accurate, as it implies they are all competing for the same fixed share of the market and will steal sales away from each other. The reality may be that they expand the market for electrics, so their sales will be in addition to Tesla’s sales instead of stealing them.

EV sales from other car makers will primarily come from cannibalizing their ICE sales

Absolutely. The Porsche product will primarily compete with other Porsche products.

I would expect the BMW or Audis to be at a higher price point.

Where do you get the info regarding overall US sales for July?

I used June numbers and made an estimate. For Ford, I just used their press release from today.

In Southern and Northern California, there is a critical mass of Model 3’s. They are EVERYWHERE now and I am willing to bet they’ve taken a majority of BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, Acura’s business if not almost all. It’s just a matter of time when the whole country adapts and BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, Acura start to s**t in their pants.

They already are – at least in 2015, the Model S outsold everyone in the luxury full-size sedan market in the US and Western Europe. You had better believe the previous market leader, Mercedes, has noticed.

I do not know, off the top of my head, who the leaders were for 2016 and 2017, but the S had to be near the top. They keep selling!

Dante, you should probably add that if the numbers are accurate, they sold roughly the same number of Model 3 cars as BMW Group sold of all cars (not SUVs). That is they sold the same number (within 15 units) of Model 3 cars as BMW sold 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, Z4, X1, X2, i3, and i8 combined…

is that US only?

Yes, sorry, was comparing US sales as Model 3 number is for US.

Yes. BMW only sold 14,265 cars in the US in July. From now on, they’re the underdog in the US luxury sedan market behind Tesla. Wow.

Ford’s car sales went to Tesla. Everyone’s waiting for the Model 3 to be generally available.

Nope they went with Asian car makers

I dont understand. Seems like Ford sold 20,630 Escapes in July. Isn’t that more than the Model 3?

A Ford Escape isn’t a car, it is a sport utility vehicle.

Ah, good point. Thanks. Do we know when they are coming out with the pick up truck? Looking forward to that.

If you mean the new 2019 Ford Ranger, it is supposed to be available in early 2019 with the 2.3L twin-screw turbo I-4 EcoBoost (same engine that is in the base model Mustang: 310hp & 350 lb-ft of torque).

If you mean the Tesla pickup… well… I assume that the question isn’t “if”, it’s a matter of “when”… could be several years, at least because we haven’t seen a formal reveal, yet, nor have any test vehicles been spotted on any roads or test tracks.

Please say you are just joking with the “Dave Einhorn” name???

Funny news about him today though —

“Billionaire hedge fund manager David Einhorn told investors on Tuesday that a sharp rally in Tesla Inc shares, which he bet against, turned into heavy second-quarter losses at his Greenlight Capital fund….Greenlight lost 18.3 percent in the first six months of 2018, Einhorn wrote in a letter to investors seen by Reuters. Tesla shares, which rose 29 percent in the last quarter, was the fund’s “second biggest loser” during that period, he added. ”


Did you check the price of Model-3 and Escape. Why not you compare the sales of Ford Escape with Benz E Class then. It should be 9 times more.

The question is profit margin. You could take a Ford Escape, a Toyota sedan or practically ANY gas car model and compare profit margins with the Model 3 say at 20,000 units sold per month. The per unit profit for the ICEmobile will soar high over what small profit Tesla may get for any level of a Model 3.

Thing is – one carmaker is trying to make a buck. The other is trying to be profitable while changing the world. Which side are you on?

Shoot, I thought Model 3 would be lower… I was guessing 10400- 13K


Outstanding! I was afraid that the 3 deliveries could be as low as 10k and was hoping for 12k as a probable best case!
Odd how differing outlooks can make an event either positive or negative.

I tried to warn you not to rely upon your twitter source for numbers because of their clear anti Tesla bias. As I warned they were badly wrong.

Unfortunately I do not expect you to stop using the same sources

Sometimes it is better to let insideevs do the numbers and wait patiently instead of parroting known bad sources on twitter. It avoids egg on one’s face

Actually their numbers were production, and not sales… Actually they were right on…

I love the fact that EVs have reached a point where someone can view 14,000+ as “low” 😀

If May or June was high it was by a few hundred units at the most. As we reported last month, somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 made their way to Canada in Q2. We have no doubts about that, although the exact number is not known yet.

I thought he was being sarcastic??? (I have been known to be wrong, from time to time… 😉 )

Wade… Exactly… 14K is well below guidance, but still an amazing achievement. There should still be room to grow in August, as I believe the cars in transit now is about 2K higher then last month for Model 3. My early guess for Model 3 August is 18K-20K USA deliveries.

David green. I knew you would go negative even after you promised not to and break your promise.

Thanks for proving how predictable you are.

“below guidance” Tesla actually had no SALES guidance for July. So if you are mixing PRODUCTION numbers with these SALES numbers, you’ve already screwed up big time.

This is such a rookie mistake. Production targets are not the same as sales targets, especially for a company in massive growth mode, like Tesla’s “Sales Rocket” proves. Sales will ALWAYS lag behind production for any product manufactured by any company anywhere in the world.

And Tesla had a weekly production RATE target which they made it quite clear they were not going to hit every single week of the month when they announced that they would have an extended 4th of July holiday while they retooled during the first week of the month. So you are double screwing up if you are comparing a production RATE target to the actual sales numbers by multiplying by 4 and not taking into account the holiday and retooling.

Jean-Francois Morissette

Numbers are in for the 3 in Canada: tinyurl.con/CanadaEvsales

456 in May and 2329 in June

Jean-François Morissette


next month will likely double this number, though it will drop back to around 24000.

Next month will be 16k 18k there I said it

Well said Wade.
14,250 is really a high # and Model-3 should be the highest sold among luxury vehicles.

Remember, this is cars DELIVERED. Big difference.
Right now, Tesla is suffering throughout their entire system. And at the moment, it is delivery that is having the hardest time.

Exactly. They’ll fix the transit and delivery issues in time.

They built 16k and delivered 14.5k US plus a few in Canada, so in-transit stayed roughly constant at 11-12k. That’s a good result considering their delivery issues

Wow, I was about 10% low in my Model 3 estimate Very close on S and X… Model 3 had a great month! Is that positive enough for you, Nix?

Next time choose a wider range. Say August will be between 5000 and 50000 deliveries.

How about in Canada?

Very few. In fact I have seen no canadian deliveries reported for July. But I’m sure there have been at least a small number who just aren’t active in the usual online spaces.

And we are getting reports that a few AWD vins have been assigned for canadian delivery sometime in Sep-Oct. So at least some will be sneaking across the northern border in the coming months!

Any for delivery in Canada, that missed picking up in June, would roll into July sales, antway, but Tesla is pushing most now for USA deliveries, where possible! But a Performance Version will sell in Canada, before a Base Battery Version in the USA, for sure!


Shorts start losing their shirts.

It might be a while before the shorts lose their shirts, Tesla stock is still. It might have something to do with something called “profit”.

14,250 X (~$55,000 – ~28,000) = 385 million profit, give or take.

Looks like Q2’s cash burn (~900mn for 3 months) could be erased by Q3.

Shorts are good, for a bath. Think of the media ‘clicks’ from reporting these sales numbers. There might even be graphs. Eek.

You’re being too optimistic.

Tesla’s gross margin guidance is 20% by end of the year, 25% mid next year and high 20’s by 2020.

Pjwood1, that’s gross margin, not profit.
Some very mature companies have 40+% gross margins and still lose money, from a GAAP perspective.

Q3 financials will be interesting, though. They may not wipe out all the red ink, but the increase in revenue is going to be impressive.

COGS were much higher than 28k in Q2.

Tesla guided break even gross margin, so ~55k vs. your 28.

Tesla’s guidance on break even (actually 3%) was for LAST quarter. He is talking about THIS quarter we are in now. Tesla is guiding 15%.

In other words, somewhere in the middle between the two.

According to Musk himself in the conference call just last night the gross margin of the model 3 “just turned slightly positive”. There is no $27k profit per model 3, at best there is $1k and that’s only after Tesla’s Hollywood accounting where they hide car related costs in other parts of the balance sheet.

You are also confusing q2 and q3. Different quarters. Q3 is 15 percent target

Yeah, I wouldn’t hold my breath on the shorters losing their shirts this month, or next. Tesla’s profit/loss statement from last quarter (Q2) is likely to look grim, due to all the money they’re investing in ramping up Model 3 production, service, and the delivery system… all the money the shorters will continue to call “losses” although of course they are really investments.

Hopefully the profit/loss statement will look much better for Q3. The word is that investors are finally starting to hold Elon’s feet to the fire — I personally think that’s a good thing — and that Elon is determined to have Tesla start showing a profit on a regular basis starting Q3 this year. Let’s hope that’s true!

Yes, if they have good July numbers though they can toss that to investors so it shouldn’t hurt stock even though not many Model 3 cars sold in Q2.

“all the money the shorters will continue to call “losses” although of course they are really investments.”

“Loss from Operations” means “Loss from Operations” No matter what accounting firm you use, its the same meaning. Investments are called CapEx, and they are not listed as an operating expense. In Q1 Tesla had 600M “Loss from Operations” I expect today we will see more of the same.


What you don’t understand is that Operations include things like paying salaries to factory workers who they have to pay the same despite having HALF the sales in the entire Q1 as they just sold last month. Same goes for paying people associated with delivery center ramp up, service center ramp-up, and supercharger ramp up. All of which were done as part of the Model 3 ramp-up, which will be recouped by future Model 3 sales.

Your mistake is in mistakenly believing all of Tesla’s Model 3 ramp-up costs are exclusively booked as capex, and none of it is ops.

You keep making the same mistake as the folks who claimed each Volt costing GM $100,000 dollars per car, because they divided all the costs into the first 6 months of sales numbers.

Yes. The next 3 to 6 months will be the worst trolling ever as they go through their last chance before q3 q4 numers are released

It is going to get bad

Yes, as the Model 3 ramps up so will the negative stories, along with famous shorts adding in their 2 bits.
It will be like sharks to blood in the water if Tesla falters, though my own feeling is that they will get back on their surfboards, (sold out btw) and goofy foot into shore and safety.

I wish they would just goofy their way to safety right now and not wait that long!!

Sadly I predict a huge anti-Tesla hate rally overnight as the usual suspects figure out how to ignore the massive sales victory, and hyper-focus on distorting half-truths in the data to pretend somehow this sales bonanza is bad news.

They will get their talking points on twitter and BI and be back tomorrow in record force.

I doubt Tesla investors are demanding profits… People who hold Tesla stock at the price its at, are focused on large future growth, not present profitability.

Next their shorts.

Temporary artificial inflation of sales do to a 2 year backlog is nothing to be cheering about. Call me when a year from now Tesla can sell that many model 3s a month in the US.

Hey admins, does anything happen when someone racks up “thumbs down” at a really high level? Just curious.

No. We don’t use voting to stifle people.

Yelp that’s called censoring

Which they certainly have the option of doing since IEVs isn’t run by the government…

Tesla Death Cultists were saying exactly the same thing about the then new Model X a few years ago, and the then new Model S a few years before that. Don’t y’all ever get tired of being completely wrong?

If not, then y’all should revive the “Tesla Death Watch” blog series. That was very entertaining… altho not in the way the writer intended!
😆 😆 😆

Barring a major disaster at Tesla — and I mean a disaster far worse than any we’ve seen there — we can be absolutely certain that a year from now, Model 3 sales will be significantly greater than they were last month.

Go Tesla! 🙂

Yes, many have expired waiting for Tesla to do so, and I’m afraid many more will follow due to people’s dogged determination to cut their own throats.

Lots of buyers won’t buy before a Test Drive, which Tesla is now setting up for, too!

I believe there are more people waiting for the regular range ($35k) M3, too.

So if sales are at this lever or higher for two more years to get through the backlog, is it still temporary?

remember even at 10k cars a week, 40k cars a month, it will take 10 months to get through a 400k backlog, not counting additional pre-orders. M3 supply may not meet demand until 2020, especially if they start offering leasing, delivery’s in only 2 weeks from orders. Imagine how sales will go when Tesla show rooms have M3’s that you can buy right there like any other dealership.

Exactly. People howl about how “the backlog is down” when no other car company has ever had any kind of backlog like this. The simple fact is that every Model 3 that will be made for the foreseeable future has already been earmarked for an owner that has put money down on it.

At the risk of being pedantic, that 400k was global, and only the North American market is being served. With the US Federal income tax credit clock having started this quarter for Tesla as a whole, Tesla is probably going to continue to emphasize USA sales through the end of June 2019, when the last of the tax credit will be gone.

The last of the tax credit won’t be gone before the end of 2019.

The first 3 modifiers you use also the first 3 words are exactly the opposite. Thusly you have disqualified your argument from consideration. It’s sadly consistent, so there is that.

Yeah let’s delay over 10,000 cars from last quarter and make it look like there were record sales. 14,250 – 11,000 eq only 3,000 sold in July

Remember they made 5000 cars in the last week of June, there is not a chance those could have been delivered in June, so they didn’t really delay that many cars. At most 5,000 or 6,000 cars could have been held back on purpose, but they seem to be having trouble getting them from the factory to the customer more than manufacturing them right now. Seems like a good problem to have.

Messing with numbers by holding back only works 1 month or quarter as it would show in the next. I am telling you now that 14,000 is the low end of the sales for this quarter. I am guessing 50,000 Model 3 cars this quarter. Yes, they held back by shipping cars to Canada in June, but that was to maximize tax credits for the buyers, not for lack of demand.

Dude what you’re talking about? Here the original message:
“11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.”

I am not disagreeing with that statement (you appear to be the one disagreeing by saying they were intentionally holding back), I am saying they were not, that it was mostly just end of quarter production (and maybe redirecting a bunch to Canada) to maximize the number of tax credits (they extended it by an entire quarter, meaning about 50,000 additional people will get tax credits and at higher values).

My guess is they still have 11,000 Model 3 units in transit from the last 2 weeks of production (or likely even more in transit this month than last). The point is the number in transit represents your last 2 weeks of production or so, your deliveries lag your production by 1-3 weeks or so).

Do you understand how lead time works? Just because the cars that were sold in July were made in June does not mean that there will be a giant hole in sales at some point in the future.

Did I say there would be a sales hole? Wasn’t trying to

There’s even room, for upside surprise from all the engineering it took to avoid 200k arriving before July. Maximum “in transit” spill into Q3. Maybe we get the number tonight?

Yes, why it’s so hard to deliver 3k cars produced in July?

It’s probably just plain hard for Tesla to deliver 16,000+ cars in a single month in a single country no matter how many they produce. Just look at those month over month gains. Looks like delivery is the bottleneck.

They have to change the formula for international sales and make batches of different options and them in bulks to different countries instead individually

Because they probably produced 15-20k cars in July? I assume your comment was sarcasm? My hunch is the in transit number is higher now than last month.

Since they don’t have thousands of people willing to store their vehicles for free and re-sell them for a bit more, they have found a bottle neck in the storage/delivery portion of their workflow. They need more delivery people and more lots to store cars. Maybe they can rent some space from local BMW Dealers? 😉

Tesla needs to build more Delivery Centers, each with a large storage lot. Lots more, and not just in southern California.


Or partner with Carvana with giant vending machines. LOL!

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X sales finally exceeds S sales

Pedro Coelho Pereira da Silva

Any idea of Canadá numbers for model 3

The forums are not reporting many Canadian sales in July. Most of the 2,000+ sales in June went to Ontario and their $14,000 rebate program has been terminated.

not bad. Not bad. Ok, actually pretty good.
And next month should be a near doubling of this.

Hopefully, Europe decides to help get a tesla factory going.

16,775 cars, average price? 86,000?

Median price around $56k, average price around $60k. They just didn’t sell that many S and X’s to make the average price come out that high.
14,250 vs. 2525.

That doesn’t add up. The cheapest Model 3 with a coat of paint and basic autopilot is already $55,000. The median and average have to be a heck of a lot higher.

There were lot of 3’s delivered that were priced in the $40k’s. The ratio of fully loaded to standard long range has shifted.

Mine was the 2nd cheapest version at $51k. I did the paint option.

The cheapest Model 3 sold right now is $35k + 9k LR + 5k PUP + 1k Delivery = $50k.

There’s no 35k model. Just the LR option only because the SR option is not out yet

To clarify: The amount shown by MTN Ranger is absolutely correct. The sticker on the Model 3 starts TODAY at $35K, and then adds the required $9K long range battery and the $5K premium upgrade package.

If you can find a Model 3 “in the $40k’s” buy it. The lowest price you can go today is $50K

My error. I thought that the LR package was the only required option, I didn’t know that the PUP was required for a July delivery.

Not really, Dante – except for AP, paint, wheels and drive train, all of the bells and whistles are included (Premium interior is standard right now). The lowest Model 3 you can get is $43k, and the highest you can get is $80k (performance, sport package, red or white paint, white interior, full AP).

You can get a RWD version with upgraded paint (blue, for my preference) and unlock enhanced AP for $55k. I’m sure that quite a few buyers took that middle-of-of-the-road approach. If they added dual-motor, then you’re looking at $59k.

I would not be surprised if the average would be in the high 50s, maybe 60 even.

The cheapest Model 3 you can get is $49k, not $43k.

The average selling price was $3.118b/40,768 cars = $76,478/car last quarter and the more expensive versions of the Model 3 started deliveries in July.

Including transportation, the lowest price is $50K for a black Model 3.

for more perspective, according to goodcarbadcar, comparing Tesla July numbers to ICE June sales numbers, Tesla should now be beating Volvo, Mitsubishi, Cadillac, Chrysler, and possibly Acura. all of these company’s sold less than 15k cars in June in the US. next manufacturers to beat are Buick at 17k, Audi at 19k and Lexus at 23k.

On Monday, Zac and Jesse from Now you Know said by this time next year, the M3 should be the best selling car in the US (not counting SUV’s and Trucks) do we think that’s possible?

No, but the Model 3 might be (not BMW M3 😉 ). I actually think the Accord/Camry/etc will still outsell it though.

They outsold BMW for July for car only sales (ignoring SUVs).

3 long shot factors that may propel the Model 3, if they can finally figure out self driving, Tesla network is available and owners could make residual income (atleast 2 years away IMO) and if they can get the US gov’t to extend the $7,500 tax credit for 10 years. GM will hit the 200k number shortly and they may lobby to get the credit extended, how will bolt sales go when they get $3,750 more expensive in April next year?

My suspicion is GM is readying their new EV launches to time with tax credit reduction so they can set the prices accordingly. Bolt EV will sell at larger discounts or have a larger price correction applied to it or be discontinued to make room for CUV built at the same plant (they already have about 100k capacity at that plant, if they aren’t making more than 30k Bolt EVs they have a lot of spare capacity with the Sonic in decreasing demand).

I think you are right, with a huge advancement in FSD (not done of course), everyone will buy the Model 3 instead of Accord, Camry, BMW 3 series, Acura, doesn’t matter along with everything else it offers. People will slowly be won over by their friends, etc.

Don’t want Tesla network or ai cars

There’s no need to extend the credit.

No need, but it shouldn’t give Toyota a selling advantage in 2022, just because they have been dragging their feet on PHEV, and especially EV in N.A.

The Tesla Model 3 should be able to surpass (in the sedan segment), the 2019 Nissan Sentra and Altima individual sales numbers, in N.A.

But, breaking into the Top 10 Vehicle Sales list, may be a bit more challenging. It would mean that Tesla would have to beat one of the sedan leaders, Toyota Carolla, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, and the #1 Toyota Camry.

Getting into the top 10 Vehicle Sales list, would require a minimum of at least 300k (6k per week) sales in 2019, of the Tesla Model 3.

Possible yes, probable, we will have to wait and see.

Yelp I agree

I don’t expect the TM3 to go anywhere but up the charts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a top five finish in some months and definitely in the top 10 for the second half of the year. If they can ramp up production to the ~10k level, then it’ll absolutely be at the top.

Okay, I agree with you now, I think there is potential for the Model 3 to be the best selling car in US (not vehicle of course). If not the best selling, at least in the top 3. Camry sold 387k last year, or about 7,440 per week, Corolla 3rd best selling car sold about 6340 per week, so I think if they can sell 7,000/week in the US (remember 10,000/week is world wide) they can be the best selling car.

I think there are good odds that what you say could be, the Model 3 will be the best selling car in the US in 2019. You changed my mind, and just looking at the data and what Elon was saying about trade ins. They are capturing sales from all segments and that is on the $50k+ car, imagine what they will do with $35k model.

I dont see it

But with 11,166 in transit at the end of June that means Tesla only managed to deliver 3,084 units built in July. That should mean even more undelivered units than at the end of June. I thought they were holding back units to delay the 200k mark. Why are they holding back deliveries now?

They aren’t holding back units, it just takes time to deliver things.

If it is taking them 3 weeks to deliver a pre-sold car here in the U.S. that is a big problem for the Q3 numbers. That means 3/4 of September’s production will not be delivered until Q4. That could destroy any chance of a Q3 profit.

They already hit 7k/week at the end of June so I don’t see how it makes a big difference. They’ll probably have about the same number of cars in transit at the end of Q3 as in the beginning.

Shipping a car across the US takes time. Not just Tesla either. For instance, when I ordered my Bolt EV, it took about 3 weeks from production to the arrival at my dealership in Texas. Then The dealer took a day to prepare it for delivery, give it a full charge, etc. Then I scheduled a pickup time 2 days later.

For Tesla, End of quarter production (typically) prioritizes west coast deliveries as a result. It can simply be done faster.

Shipping is the same reason so much X/S production at the start of each quarter is headed overseas to europe, china, etc. It takes longer to arrive. The rest of the quarter, Tesla production is focused (mostly) on US and Canadian deliveries because comparatively, the time from production to delivery is much shorter. Of course as Chinese and European factories come into play in the coming years, this should change.

Did you expect them to deliver every car they built in any month in the same month they built them? What car comlany does that?? Typically it takes 60 plus days for the average car to go from built to sold.

They had a 4th of July holiday at the beginning of the month.

Cars from the last week would
NEVER get delivered in the same week they were built by ANY company. Silly to even imply otherwise.

Similar situation for the week before that. Those SHOULD be somewhere in the pipeline even under best of conditions for any company. And tesla is suffering delays.

My May 17th delivery (built in April) took almost three weeks to ship. Truck to rail. Rail to Mississippi. Truck from Mississippi to NC.

So what? They’re still obliterating the market.

The holding back was obviously only for a single and special situation. It’s not going to happen again and they’re still producing ~20k per month, almost all of which are definitely going to be delivered to US customers until the tax credit completely expires for Teslas.

This estimate sounds low, considering they had over 11k in transit at the beginning of July. I was hoping for 17 to 20k delivered on the month.

There have been bottlenecks both with physical delivery and their financial system for sales paperwork.

No shock at all. Tesla said they would ramp up to 5K per week = 20K per month. With 350,000 or so backorders to fill, they have a long way to go. So no – not shocked at all. They have to fill the backorders.

If people think that over 14K of model-3s is a great achievement or new record, than wait for the beginning of next year when the “base model” begins shipping. With current models delivering perhaps 15-20K/month the following months till end of year, that number could very well increase by 50% or maybe even double, when BASE begins shipping.

October 2001. Apple releases the iPod. Changed the way we listened to music. Cost around $300. Apple shares price at time of release, $1.33 per share. Looking back, you would rather have the iPod that I’m sure you’re not using anymore, or taken that money and purchased Apple shares? You’d be able to buy 150 iPods with that single investment. Kevin O’Leary recently said he loves his Tesla, hates the stock. Did he love his iPod but hate apple stock? This why I have a model 3 worth of stock instead of buying the model 3

Why do you think a mature Tesla will be valued anymore than any other mature car company? The stock price already assumes that Tesla will grow into a regular car company doing regular car company numbers. Do you really think Tesla’s market cap is going to be 10x from where it is now (or to use your Apple analogy, 200x)? Good for you for have a “model 3 worth of stock,” but there’s no reason to think that TSLA is going to double or triple its market cap – why would it? By selling more cars? There are car companies that sell 100x more cars – at a profit – that are valued less, and in about six month Tesla is going to have real competition.

I agree on the valuation but as for real competition…please…Tesla was supposed to have real competition since it got on the market. I will believe it when i see it.

I definitely agree with you that it won’t have the same trajectory as Apple. Everyone can afford an apple product and that’s not the case with Tesla. However, the company is named Tesla, not Tesla motors. Get the whole car company out of your head and you’ll see clearly. It’s sauce is in energy production and storage. Ford, BMW, etc are dedicated car companies. Tesla is an energy company that produces cars. We don’t talk much about Tesla energy yet because they can’t meet demand due to the fact that they are singlehandedly saving Australia and Puerto Rico and it gets no coverage, shocking haha. This so called competition coming are years behind and they don’t produce their own batteries which will effect their bottom line. And every electric bmw sold is a gas powered bmw not sold basically cannabalizing their fleet. They are so screwed. Tesla doesn’t have that problem. And if you’ve been paying attention, Tesla is improving on the cost of battery production. The gross margin difference between Tesla and other car companies will be shocking

“And every electric bmw sold is a gas powered bmw not sold basically cannabalizing their fleet.” Huh? At various times in its history, the 911 has phased out its motive power, from an air-cooled flat 4, to an air-cooled flat 6, to a water-cooled flat 6, and now a water-cooled, turbo-charged flat six in all of its trims. In each of those transitions, did it “cannibalize” its fleet and “screw” itself, or did it just update its powertrain? How would that be any different than a traditional ICE manufacturer transitioning from ICE powertrains to EVs? Additionally, the price points for EVs are considerably higher than they are for a comparable ICE car (that may change, but it’s a fact for the near future); you can buy an Audi E-tron Quattro for $100,000, or you can buy the same car with an ICE (the Q5), for $60k – the price points are so far apart that they represent different markets, not competing products in the same space, so how Audi be “cannibalizing” itself? As for Tesla being an “energy” company, they deliver even fewer energy solutions than they do cars. You guys just don’t seem to understand that there are mature… Read more »

There were a lot of “mature” mobile phone makers, with the resources to catch up, when Apple introduced the iPhone — and yet, eleven years later, Apple is still making much more money than all the others combined…

Sure, not every disruptor manages to keep their advantage — but the mere presence of incumbents doesn’t mean new players have no chance of becoming dominant.

Tesla doesn’t just sell cars, which you probably already know. There are 5 major oil companies, with a market cap of close to $190 billion. They sell energy to 99% of the existing passenger car fleet. Also at a tidy profit, due to a bit of a monopoly, in case you haven’t checked recently.

If Tesla can take just 5% of the Big 5 Oil Corps. Fossil Fuel market cap, in the next 5 years (1% a year), that should add close to 10 billion in market cap by 2025. Solar and battery storage are coming no matter what, ignore this slowly emerging disruptive technology, at your own financial peril.

Cheap solar electricity will scale side by side with residential battery storage. The Tesla trifecta (EV car, solar roof, power-wall), will absolutely be a force to contend with.

Wall Street is taking notice, and yes, they will capitalize the Tesla vision to profitability. When will you see the light and climb aboard? The Train is leaving the station.

Why do you think that Tesla is the only company that sells solar roofs? That sells battery storage? You guys talk as if Tesla is the only company that makes EVs (it’s not), solar power (it isn’t, and it’s actually late to the game on it), or batteries and storage. The argument gets made over and over and over again – “Tesla was first!!!! Tesla will have a monopoly!!!!!” Besides being factually inaccurate, if being first to market was such a huge advantage, how does any market diversify? Why is there any car company other than Mercedes Benz, since it was the first car company? Why is there any PC company other than IBM? Why is there any search engine besides Archie Query Forum?

Tesla is the first mover in the space. While they actually make money on their evs others don’t. If you can’t see the difference between an aging artifact of a company making cars that are inferior, with lots of capital tied up in obsolete technology, as opposed to the wunderkind that is Tesla, then you don’t really get it.
In a few years their stock could be 3x the current value.
It’s a fundamental error to say that competition will hurt Tesla sales. Competition that, though much ballyhooed for years, has not materialized. The coming competition will also be in low numbers, and not as profitable as Tesla’s models. Besides which with the worldwide fleet changing over to evs there is plenty of room for anyone to sell a decent ev and compete with. Tesla. Tesla has just made it much more difficult.;

Became Tesla is so far technically advanced beyond every other car company.

It is kind of tragic and will end up being very expensive that the shorts only know finance and not engineering /technology.

I was right I estimated 13k -17k

Here is an interesting perspective: Lexus sold 25,403, BMW 21,982 and Mercedes-Benz 20,034 vehicles last month. Tesla sold about 17,500 vehicles last month. This kind of sales volume spread across only three models is surprising when going up against market leaders. It looks like they are breaking into the big leagues.

Redefining* the big leagues.

Is the Team Insideevs reporting from Planet Mars. Wow thanks for your reporting, this is great news for Planet Earth.

Seems Tesla Model-3 with 14,250 sales has left competition in much lower sales level.
2018-07 sales with 2017-07 in ( ). Except Audi A4, most other models have suffered severe losses.

Infiniti Q50 – 2,397 (2,596)
Lexus IS – 2,068 (2,443)
Lexus ES – 4,551 (6,641)
Acura ILX – 874 (1,322)
Acura TLX – 2,046 (2,495)
BMW 3 Series – 3,185(4,084)
BMW 5 Series – 3,104 (3,713)
Benz C Class – 3,841 (4,899)
Benz CLA – 1,424 (2,181)
Benz E Class – 2,252 (3,876)
Audi A4 – 3,433 (2,923)
Audi A6 – 157 (1,218)

Already Toyota has slightly reduced the price of Lexus ES Hybrid. They have only the hybrid model to compete and no plugin.

Now Tesla’s sales is double that of Lincoln make.

Toyota: Electric cars are not ready for the world.
The World: Toyota is not ready for electric cars.

Yep, the Model 3 will be within the top 10 for the rest of the year and in at least in the top five in California if not completely dethroning the Civic.

Tesla has overtaken the sales of few makes like Lincoln, Acura, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, Jaguar, etc and this will continue in the coming months. It may even go closer to Audi.

BTW, overall sales of Benz took a serious dip last month. C Class, CLA Class and E Class went down.

I’d bet there more than a few hundred burning twisted sphinctres at this news……………..

And they haven’t started the sale in Norway!

Probably because Tesla has been hoarding model 3:s to not break the 200k barrier before July. Tesla had 11k model 3’s “in transit” entering July, those plus another handful of them has now been delivered.

Here are some numbers for cars sold in July in US (from http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/08/july-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/) …Not that many above the Tesla M3, now 7th car in US !

“cars”…. only problem being that in the US not all cars count as cars. A list over all passenger vehicles would be more interesting.

Ok, I mean then we will compare apples and oranges, but still interesting to see options chosen by people overall, I agree, and it is 18th position if I am not wrong, always according to this data

With Tesla passing the 200,000 vehicle mark in the US recent, you can bet they are going to maximize US deliveries as much as possible for the next 6 months, and possibly 12 months. Given that there has been no guidance on modifications or extensions of the EV tax credit, Tesla has to operate on the assumption that the credit will expire for them as planned….or worse, so may as well try to maximize customer value and minimize possible cancellations related to credit expiry (a complete unknown at this point, and may not be material).

Amazing result, and hopefully one that is repeated / exceeded in August. I’m not a Tesla investor, but this should be an affirmation that Tesla will be able to substantially reduce cash burn rate, if not achieve positive cash flow by either the end of the quarter or early in Q4, in line with Musk’s recent statement that they won’t require additional capital raise this year….although with Gigafactory 3 plans on the horizon, who knows.