Tesla Model 3 Sales Beyond Expectations: New Record In September

OCT 2 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 251

Raise the roof. Or rather, pop the top off of that tent.

It’s a recurring theme here when it comes to Tesla Model 3 sales of late.

In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July, which amounted to 14,250.

Think that’s a big number? Well…it was. That is, until August when it shot up to 17,800.

But now, there’s yet another month in the books and, of course, a new sales record, too.

The moment of electric car lift-off has arrived with the Model 3 obliterating all previous marks and surpassing a new milestone, the 20,000 -unit mark.

September will be one to remember, that’s for sure. And it’s not just Model 3 sales that took off for Tesla.

Ready for them beyond expectations sales numbers? Aren’t we all…

By our estimations, Tesla sold an epic 22,250 Model 3s in September in the U.S. Shocked? Of course, that’s the highest ever for sales of a single plug-in electric car in any month, beating the old mark set by the…Model 3. And it’s the first time ever an electric car surpassed 20,000 sales in a month in the U.S.

We estimate 1,540 Model 3s were delivered to Canada in Q3.

The Model 3 now stands alone as one atop the sales chart for the year with no other plug-in electric car capable of catching it. The YTD tally so far stands at 78,132. An untouchable figure. The highest volume of sales ever for an electric car in a single year was back in 2014 when LEAF sales hit 30,200. With three months of sales still remaining in 2018, the Model 3 sits at nearly double the LEAF’s record and well on track to blow way past 100,000 by year’s end.

Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X...

These two plug-ins were outdone by Model 3, but that’s expected.

For September, we estimate the following for sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 3,750 units in September
  • Tesla Model X  – 3,975 units in September

Both of those figures are well over August results when our estimates put both cars at a volume of 2,625 for the Model S and 2,750 for the Model X.

Tesla holds a commanding lead in plug-in electric car sales for the year and will not be challenged by any other automaker for the YTD win. Trust us, no automaker can match Tesla for the year, so let’s call it right now. Tesla is #1 in U.S. plug-in electric car sales for 2018 and the margin just continue to grow as the year progresses.

Perhaps it’s time to give Tesla proper props for its plug-in progress. In terms of sales, the automaker is now clearly unmatched.

TESLA MODEL 3

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

TESLA MODEL 3 PERFORMANCE

Tesla Model 3 Performance - Dual Motor Badge
10 photos
Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion (wallpaper 2,560x – click to enlarge) Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Wide Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Touchscreen

Categories: Sales, Tesla

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

251 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Sales Beyond Expectations: New Record In September"

newest oldest most voted
Eric Perigny

How does that compare with BMW 3-Series or Mercedes C-Class?

TM3x2 Chris

The TM3 easily outsold them both. The only question is by what margin.

Michael

Model 3 was what, No. 5 in the US overall in August? Those two cars weren’t close.

Viking79

US only
For all of Q3, Car Sales
Tesla 61,875
BMW 45,452
MB 29,442

SUVs
MB 37,100 (excludes commercial vans)
BMW 26,227
Tesla 8,050

All
BMW 71,679
Tesla 69,925
MB 66,542

By Q4 Tesla will easily outsell MB and BMW brands as a whole in the US (by a large margin). Wait until Model Y comes out (X3 is BMWs best selling vehicle now).

Doggydogworld

Impressive numbers, thanks for posting them.

TJKR

These are the types of numbers that will put a competitor out of business.

Mark.ca

If they are sustained…

CDAVIS

@Viking79 said: “…Wait until Model Y comes out (X3 is BMWs best selling vehicle now).”
—————

Yup…

Tesla Model Y going into volume production will create for BMW a full blown crisis.

Taylor Marks

lol.

Tesla is looking at being the #13 brand for the month in the US, way ahead of BMW, Mercedes, Mazda, etc. They’ll be just ahead of Lexus and behind VW and Dodge. Before the year is over, I think we’ll have a month where they overtake both of those brands… then the next brand ahead of them will be Kia. Overtaking Kia will take awhile – they make 50K cars per month… probably won’t be until the Model Y has majorly ramped up that we see Tesla overtake Kia.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-august-2018-brand/

AJ

And the higher end Model 3s they are selling right now will probably have higher than or just as high margins as BMW’s best selling X3

Will

M series are 100k cars

Michael

Didn’t the Model 3 outsell all BMW sedans combined in the US in August?

Tom Moloughney

Yep. Most likely did so again in September.

Jezza

Depends if you look only USA or worldwide

Viking79

This is true, but since Model 3 is really only for sale in US it only makes sense to compare in the US. Other markets might be similarly affected next year.

Jezza

If they get production up

Viking79

It isn’t “if”, it is when.

rey

Production is up and running bringing the MOD 3 to EV Starved and waiting markets while Tesla satisfies US demand is going to take time, what a problem the GERMAN Big 3 would like to have. LOL

jelloslug

BMW made a HUGE mistake by not showing a BEV version of the new 3 Series the other day at their reveal.

Some Guy

At the Paris autoshow, the brandnew BMW ICE 3 series apparently got less attention than the Model 3 Tesla was exhibiting a few boothes over. And that was on “industry and press day”, where the public is not allowed in yet. Despite the fact that the Model 3 is already over a year on the market. That says something.

Michael

What’s clear is that the demand for this car will exceed the ability to produce it for quite a few quarters off into the future.

Once the car is available in Europe, then elsewhere, the SD is opened up for orders, the leasing option goes live, etc. then we’ll see this become a 500K unit/yr product. Putting plants in China and Europe will lower costs in those markets and increase the reach of the brand as they move to introduce the Y and the pickup and future other products.

Looking forward to the 10Q to see the progress they’re making on sustainable profitability. The S/X products are mature and should be profitable with decent margins going forward and the 3 should reach that point within the next few quarters. Their costs per unit produced should drop the more units they make and the more battery cost improvements they realize.

Terawatt
Yes. If Tesla can afford to do it all. With over 2 billion of debt reaching maturity in the next 2 years they need to make a pretty substantial profit in order to pay off their debt while also making these heavy investments. But it seems to me like there’s little doubt it can work. If investors and the street people see it that way, too, they ought to prefer to inject capital once again (even though Musk says that’s not necessary) over letting Tesla go under. The point is, what uncertainty remains is all about the ability to become profitable. Demand is not much in question, although exactly how high it is outside the US is still not clear. I don’t think demand is at the same level in Europe as in the US, but I do believe it is high enough to keep Tesla production constrained for many years going forward, especially if they manage to bring Model Y into the mix in that timeframe. Model X rather unbelievably became the best-selling car overall in Norway in September. Says something about many Norwegians having a lot of money, but it certainly also says something about what these people… Read more »
God/Bacardi

They will get their global production up; Tesla wants to sell the LR equiped versions globally before offering the SR…

antrik

Previous statements suggest that they want to do both at about the same time…

Henry

In August, the Model 3 outsold the entire car lineup of both BMW and MB. September number probably comes close to the entire vehicle sales for MB (cars + SUVs) and a few thousand shy of BMW’s.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

September US sales InsideEVs estimate is almost 30k.
BMW sold 25k total in 9/2017 and this years numbers have only been slightly up.
Mercedes-Benz sold 32k total in 9/2017 but this past few months’ numbers have been significantly down so maybe.

pjkPA

Nice to have no VAT tax backing you up … with no competition in their own market and the big dumb Americans giving you $7500 for each car sold in the US … how can you loose?
The Chevy Volt is kept out of the German market … the Japanese Market .. the Korean market… the Chinese market… etc. etc. while we give them $7500…
With fair trade Tesla and GM couldn’t build enough plug ins.

Hauer

Rofl.
Volt is not „kept out of the European market“.
GM was too weak to compete in Europe and threw in the towel.
Cowards.

Some Guy

GM did not want to sell the Volt in Europe (not even Norway) in the last few years, and never bothered with a right hand drive version for UK for the Bolt. Once they sold Opel, they raised the MSRP in Europe by 5 k€ because of demand, but keep allotments as small as possible. They do sell some Chevrolet cars in Europe now, albeit only ICE. Sadly, I see more of those than Tesla’s on my daily commute.

antrik

They didn’t raise the price for the Ampera e because of demand; but rather, no longer owning the brand, they have no reason any more to sell it at a loss to fulfil emission regulations…

ModernMarvelFan

In the US.

Not globally.

Kdawg

When you get to these monthly numbers, you can start comparing with Honda Accord, Chevy Equinox, and Toyota Camry sales figures.

(and this is for a $50k+ car. I can only imagine when the $35k version arrives)

Doggydogworld

I no longer expect a $35k Model 3, except possibly limited shipments to reward original reservation holders.

Also, SRs to some extent will replace LRs. A lot of people are stretching to buy LR to end their long wait and to get the full tax credit. Once SR is available those people will be more likely to stick with SR. Tesla plans to ship LR overseas in early 2019 to keep the overall average sale price from falling too much as the US mix shifts toward lower price models.

Tesla should deliver 60-70k Model 3s in the US next quarter. That will likely be the all time high for US Model 3 revenue.

Michael

The 35K (36.2K) version will be offered. The issue will always be that once you’ve sprung for a car like that, the urge to option it up is going to be very strong. But it’ll be offered. You’ll just have to special order it each and every time.

Robert Weekley

On the other hand… The Base Model 3, with Zero Options, is a nice “Place Holder” while one awaits a Loaded Model Y! Better, I think, than a Leaf, or a Bolt EV!

It still gives a pretty good introduction to the Tesla World of Superchargers, Service, etc., allowing a better insight into what a Model Y purchase may bring you. (Or, a Tesla Pickup!)

Will

Stop it please. SR is being produce. Just talk to store and it’s 5 months out

Val

A sad sad day for ICE.

amt

It’s a Cold Day In ICE-Land… lol

TM3x2 Chris

Winter is coming…

ffbj

A long, cold, intractable Winter, where Spring never comes.

REXisKing

“The snow has not yet left the earth, but spring is already asking to enter your heart.”

— Checkov

Taylor Marks

I don’t see a way to see it that way. Most people still are clueless about BEVs. This is a great day for BEVs, but ICE still hasn’t noticed. My dad keeps telling me BEVs are a fad and they’ll never get over 10%. I think 15% is the point where he’s proven wrong and ICE companies really start to realize how screwed they are.

TM3x2 Chris

Some CEOs in the early 90s were saying that the internet was a passing fad.

ffbj

…and how right they were.

Lee Ramer

Yep, I’m now responding to your comment using Elon’s new brain interface.

Some Guy

German high ranking politicians still believe that today.

ffbj

ICE companies are smarter than your dad, they realize already what is happening, it’s just that they are so incompetent all they can do is limit sales locations of Tesla, through their political connections, or try to get the government to lower or weaken fuel standards, which they have done.
They would wish to squeeze every last drop of profit out the ICE, and they will be able to with pickup trucks for a while, but eventually even the old guard will be defeated, vanquished, and routed from the field..

V2

If “the old guard” has to fight for their life, they will not go easy. As much as everyone here I wish 95% electrification in my lifetime but unlikely all or even most old brands disappear. Would love to be able to use my pre reveal M3 reservation but not sure how long would many people, including me, will wait to see the options they want available at a price they can afford. Keeping fingers crossed the high sales stay strong or stronger for a year.

jamcl3

I remember my parents telling me in the 1960’s that the Beatles were a fad that would disappear and be forgotten in a year. Young people still listen to them today. (Not that I was a big fan personally.)

Doggydogworld

My kids know the Rolling Stones and even The Who, not so much the Beatles. Restrictive licensing has hurt their mindshare.

Brian D
Level headed and fair response. The other thing to consider is that Model 3 sales WILL decline at some point. 2019 sales will beat 2018 sales numbers, because the lines will be running at full speed for a full year and there are still a lot of backorders to fill. However, it’s far from certain that 2020 Model 3 sales will exceed 2019 Model 3 sales. By then, many would be EV buyers might instead put a deposit down for a Model Y. The question is, how many current ICE owners, that right now, as of today, aren’t interested in a BEV, can be converted, and how fast will that conversion happen? If the conversion rate is low, due to cheap gas, bad publicity, poor marketing, misinformation, or whatever reason… then 2019 may be “Peak 3” and from there, it stays about flat in sales. If on the other hand, people mass convert, and get excited about EVs, then “Peak 3” may happen later, around 2023 perhaps. At that point Tesla will have the Y, and they also may announce a smaller/cheaper model, and those two are likely to cause 3 sales to trend downwards. None of this is meant… Read more »
Marcel Guldemond
My bet is that for most of the world outside the US, the BEV market won’t stabilize, it’ll keep on eating ICE sales. Concerns about climate change are only going to grow, so more and more people are going to decide they need EVs. I know a lot of people who keep thinking about getting an EV, but they still have misconceptions about them. Once they figure out how low maintenance they are and the prices start to equalize with ICEVs, then they’ll jump. in Europe and China it’s going to be mandated. Once enough people in a neighbourhood get one, and they’re no longer odd balls or rich people’s toys, then the snowball will really happen. Another factor is that US shale oil is a debt laden Ponzi scheme and it’s only a matter of time before that oil supply crashes hard. Prices will spike. Gas stations won’t be nearly as profitable, so a % of them will close unless they put chargers in, and even then, they’ll still close, making ICE cars even less convenient. At the same time, battery factories will get built and the massive new supply will drop prices, helping the snowball along. That’s my… Read more »
Robert Weekley

Remember – they are only selling 30% of the Model 3 Variants at present, as well! Performance (Dual Motor); Non Performance Dual Motor; and Rear Wheel Drive! Also – each of these are Long Range Battery AND Premium Upgrade! Just Removing the current Mandatory Premium Upgrade, might expand that to 5 or 6 Variants, alone!

Then – the Standard Battery Variant, with or without the Premium Upgrade = another 2 Variants!

In the Autopilot Options – there are also two elements there: Enhanced AP, & Full Self Driving, as to purchase costs, making even more differences in price, selection, and variability!

Also – for each person that gives 10 people rides, there will be some number that buy a Model 3 themselves! I only spoke about the Model 3, at work, and have yet to order mine, and there are at least 2 there that I have seen, already!

Doggydogworld

They also aren’t available to lease yet. That will help keep demand high as the early reservation-holding enthusiasts all get their cars.

Michael

And then as the college graduates from each year consider their first car, they’ll be looking first at Tesla to see if they could possibly make it work. These kids have been dreaming about a Tesla for the past five years.

Chacama

I for one, will love to keep my 3 and order a Y just because… 🙂

leafowner

That is my plan….My Wife’s van is going on 8 years old and my last kid heads to college in a year….The 3 is MINE!

Michael

There is no such person as an “EV buyer”. There are car buyers. Anyone who could look at a Malibu could look at a Model 3. Anyone who could look at an Equinox could look at a Model Y (when it’s out). The idea that there is a fixed set of people who would buy an EV is dead.

George Parrott

After 45+ years of getting a new car every 2-3 years, all ICE of course, I would NEVER now consider getting another ICE vehicle. I know I am in the minority right now, but there ARE a “fixed set of people who would (only) buy an EV”. YES, there are!

leafowner

My last 2 cars — Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model 3………I’m guessing my next one will have a plug too….

DL

my last 3 cars spark ev, pac hy (which is 85% lifetime stats pure ev), mod 3. I had at least one bev for almost 5 yrs and I haven’t had a pure ice car at all in the household for more than a year now.

Take that, mr. Putin.

Doggydogworld

Malibu buyers can look at a Model 3, but most can’t come close to affording one.

Brian

They will only increase. Most climate deniers live in US and Russia.

Bill Howland

Oh I don’t think most Climate Deniers (those who can’t believe that the Globe is actually cooling since they don’t do their own research) are in Russia. They tend to be more Current with the news than those in the USA.

I have views about the Kavannah hearing in the US, which is all the US media talks about lately, but something far more important is the STARVATION of YEMEN, – such GENOCIDE is being caused by US supported Saudi Arabia since that country wants to steal their resources. People in general worldwide know about this but few Americans do.

AHEM, as far as Tesla goes, it is undeniable they are selling HUGE numbers of cars. People I’ve spoken with seem quite satisfied with the Model 3’s reliability, and, as an added feather in Tesla’s Cap, the car seems to be the most serviceable Tesla to date.

Tesla is doing SO WELL lately even Bob Lutz has had to eat his words and say that Tesla may currently be profitable. He’s never said that before.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…it’s far from certain that 2020 Model 3 sales will exceed 2019 Model 3 sales.”

I think we can say with a fair degree of confidence that global Model 3 sales for 2020 will exceed 2019 sales. U.S. sales may not be quite as certain, but I’d still bet that Tesla will sell more TM3s in 2020 in the U.S. than in 2019.

Robert Weekley

Did you show him Norway’s Numbers?

Chacama

On the contrary, I can see progress here: 10 years ago your dad said BEVs will never get over 1%. That’s a 10X gain! 😉

Henrik

Ten years from now he will say that BEVs will never get over 100%…

Pushmi-Pullyu

…and he’ll finally be right! 😉

philip d

My Uncle-in-law told me to enjoy my Tesla while it lasts.

arne-nl

Yeah, your Tesla might go bankwupt.

Larry Al

I received my Model 3 on Sept 24. I have given 6 test drives. One of the test drives was to a close friend who works for Volkwagon. He was very impressed with the ride quality and commented that the interior design was very peaceful. He is in the market for a new car and has now decided to go electric, possibly a Model 3. The other test drivers were impressed as well with the performance and driving characteristics. During the test drives, I get the same response the driving experience, they giggle like children. And like children, they show amazement and interest by asking more questions. I answered all of their questions and had to correct some misperceptions about electric vehicles and Tesla in particular.

No doubt, there are many that are uninformed, but seeking truthful information and want an understanding of this electric vehicle movement they keep hearing about.

I love being an ambassador for electric vehicles.

John

And THAT, my friend, is why I’ve been saying that there’s no real, diminishing “waiting list.” Every Model 3 added into the wild generates it’s replacement on the “list.” As evidenced that 8 years into the game and Tesla doesn’t spend a dime on advertising. 350+ million citizens in the USA, and 700+ million in Europe, Tesla will run out of steel and aluminum before they run out of potential customers.

Pushmi-Pullyu

This is why Tesla doesn’t need to pay for mass advertising. Word of mouth and owner enthusiasm does just fine. 🙂

Brian

It’s not Tesla that pays for advertising but the Tesla owner. Jaguar spends $5k per vehicle sold. So that nice drive video down Lombardi street is being paid for by Jagaur’s future customers.

Sustainable2020

When Tesla as an automaker is in the top ten in the USA for sales and there are many more reports, news segments on that fact next year…all Americans will have to notice.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“My dad keeps telling me BEVs are a fad and they’ll never get over 10%.”

That’s pretty predictable. A bit over a century ago, many people thought the motorcar was just a passing fad. “Get a horse!”

Once PEVs reach ~10% of new car sales, nearly everyone is going to realize that the market is shifting. As for those who still think it’s not at that point… Max Planck said “Science advances one funeral at a time.” Perhaps the same will be true of culture and diehard gearheads.

Rebel44

An awesome result for Tesla.

Congrats to the whole team!

RM

I gave the target 250k M3, S and X production and deliver number for 2018. Next year will be more than 500k?

Taylor Marks

Seems a bit low. Tesla only has to make 24K Model 3 in each of the next 3 months to achieve that. I think it’ll be closer to 255K or 260K.

Doggydogworld

Last 3 month production was 16k, 18k, 19k so 24/24/24 is quite ambitious. The S curve flattens as you remove the big bottlenecks.

antrik

There are still scaling in general though, not just removing bottlenecks. I think something like 22,000/24,000/26,000 should actually be plausible… Or any other curve that adds up to some 70,000 – 80,000.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

Had Tesla made 400K cars in Sep instead of 22K, they would’ve sold all of them. It’s not shocking to see 22K or 222K sold today, because they “sold” 400K+ cars 2 years ago. I hope sales breakdown put Tesla 3 sales in separate category, because that’s skewing the true month-to-month result for all other EV.

BenG

What is ‘untrue’ about Model 3 sales? Last I heard you still had to produce the car and put it in a customer’s hands before it counts as a sale.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

I’m not denying delivering is sale. But what is so shocking about measly 22K Tesla 3 sales when 400K+ people reserved 2 years ago? That’s still almost 2 years to fill reservations from 2 years ago (4 years wait for delivery). I’m not impressed. Tesla has lots of room to improve.

Yves Laurin

I’m pretty sure a bunch of them cancelled, but the waiting list is probably long as new customer order

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

That’s probably true and why I’m not impressed with 22K. That means wait could be even longer for those who want to buy Tesla today.

Robert Weekley

And yet – If I wanted a Spark EV today – I could not get one!
In Ontario – the same is nearly True with the Bolt EV, made by the Massively ‘More Capable’ General Motors!

jelloslug

Nobody wants those cars though.

Robert Weekley

I never said “I” Wanted one, I said “If” I wanted one!
Which means – I know people complaining about not being able to get one of them – even the Bolt EV, in Ontario – is now like Alaska, as far as sales supply of them goes!

REXisKing

Nobody goes to that store any more, it’s too crowded.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

I wouldn’t say nobody wants them. Used SparkEV prices seem to be moving up and selling really quickly. My lease turn-in sold in less than a month.

Scott Franco

Plenty o’ sparks on the used market. My brother is considering buying our leased spark. It’s a good car.

Robert Weekley

It’s a Fun Toy Car, at an Expensive Toy Price, and more may come available, as older owners upgrade to the Bolt EV, but still not easily found in Ontario, Canada! Maybe a closer competitor, in Acceleration, to a Tesla than any other little EV, though! (Up to a Slower speed Point, I think!)

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

BMW i3 is quicker than SparkEV. Before Bolt, EV acceleration 0-60 MPH ranking was Tesla S/X (~60K USD), i3 (~40K USD), SparkEV (~16K USD). There are Canadians driving SparkEV; in fact, SparkEV was driven 1000 km in a day by a Canadian.

Doggydogworld

Tesla does not have 400k+ reservations for the current offering.

Almost half the reservations were overseas and more than half of US reservation holders want a $35-45k car. That leaves less than 100k reservation holders for the current configuration, many of which have personal reasons to defer purchase for now. Tesla delivered 80k+ Model 3s and is selling quite a few to non-reservation holders.

Michael

Reservation holders is an irrelevant stat. Demand for the cars far exceeds the number of people willing to give a $1,000 deposit for a chance to wait in line.

Todd

The most recent crowdsourced data that I saw (that verified res #s) showed that about 30% want standard range. Sure people want it, but not more than half. Also, you are making the assumption that there will be no new buyers for LR and DM that aren’t already on the list. How many people bought a car this year that weren’t on some list last year? Answer: nearly all of them.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Tesla does not have 400k+ reservations for the current offering.”

So what? Tesla isn’t even taking reservations any more for U.S. residents, and people without a reservation can and are ordering and buying the currently offered versions of the Model 3.

The number of reservations is going to become less and less relevant over time. What’s important now is the way actual production and actual deliveries are ramping up swiftly.

Reservations were a useful measure of how many people want a TM3, but the number actually buying them is much more significant.

Michael

Considering how few Bolts are being produced, your comment reaks.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

Why would GM make more Bolts when they are sitting in dealer lots? You can buy a Bolt today (literally drive out of dealer lot today) despite how few are produced.

Good luck in getting non-LR Tesla 3 for another year (or two or ever). People who’ve been waiting 3 years and/or another year or two to wait (like me) would find that fact reeks.

Sean Graham

Umm, no you can’t. Maybe a few dealerships in CARB states have Bolts on the lot — the other 95% of dealers don’t and can’t get them in less than 6 months.

arne-nl

You’re forgetting that Tesla will ramp up further. The goal is 10k/week or 40 weeks to build 400 k cars. The next step change in production capacity will have to wait for some new Grohmann lines to increase battery production, and they have some paint shop issues to solve. They will get there, but it takes time.

John

The point you’re missing is the rate of month-to-month production increase as they go forward. You assume 22k sales will be the plateau going forward. That number will seem paltry compared to 6-12 months from now.

bro1999

“Had Tesla made 400K cars in Sep instead of 22K, they would’ve sold all of them.”
You sure about that?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/business/tesla-cars-questions.html

Viking79

They literally can’t deliver them fast enough. They need buffer spots to hold them. Tesla doesn’t have many delivery lots to hold them like car dealers use.

Get Real

That’s true.

Unlike MadBro’s stealership which has a lot and probably some off site storage, Tesla stores its cars waiting for shipment at various places including its property nearby at Lathrop.

Michael

When I drive by a suburban parking lot for an empty office building I see if filled with Jeep products. The difference between Jeep and Tesla is that with Jeep every car was built on spec and they are sitting on lots waiting for someone to realize they wanted a Jeep. The Tesla cars are waiting on someone to do paperwork to finalize delivery to the person who paid $$ deposit to have the car built for them.

antrik

Mostly. Elon admitted at one point that they built some Model 3s as inventory cars. Specifically, it looks like most new orders moved to AWD once that option was offered, and Tesla was somewhat overproducing the RWD variants while ramping production of AWD…

Nothing to worry about though, since 8,000 undelivered cars at the end of the quarter from 53,000 produced is negligible, especially considering the logistics bottlenecks.

Tech01x

They are seeing the holding lots as Tesla moved 80,000 cars around the country in Q3.

There are over 3 months of sales of Bolt’s at dealerships across the U.S. – about 4,000. If Tesla was in the same situation, there would be 70,000 Model 3’s sitting around. The holding lots wouldn’t have a mere few hundred here and there, some with a 1,000. There would have to be massive parking lots of many thousands of cars.

Viking79

PS, my brother on a day drive down I80 westbound in the midwest he noticed 5 transit carriers full of Model 3 cars. Those are just the ones he saw. Given the small sampling there are huge numbers of these cars being moved around the country.

jelloslug

When we picked up our Model 3 earlier this month, they were doing deliveries 25 customers at a time every hour. As cars left the lot, there were trucks full of new deliveries showing up. This was on a Saturday no less.

Michael

I saw three of them unloading on a side street next to Ty Warner Park in Westmont, IL this weekend. The Westmont Tesla store is a mile from there.

Michael

Three trailers, not three cars.

TM21

Mostly shorters were quoted in that article. Would like to see more balance. Now, if they had taken inventory of the cars in the lot and had discovered that most were just sitting there, that might lend credibility. In Tempe Arizona, the service center is overflowing with cars, but those cars are going out to customers as fast as new ones are coming in.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Some of the shorters (i.e., serial Tesla bashers) were actually claiming that cars were being added to Tesla’s holding lots without any ever leaving! What, does every Tesla holding lot have a black hole in it?
O_o

I mean, seriously, you’d think they would make at least a feeble attempt to make up B.S. that’s not so obvious!

Get Real

LMAO, Mental MadBro’s latest grasping for straws conspiracy theory!

REXisKing

All Publications, should be Required by Law, to disclose how much MONEY they took in to Print an Article, or at least label all paid articles Info-mercials.

You should see on an NYTimes Article: Paid Content: $10,000 by Mr. Jimmy Chanos.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

The Model 3 is doing so well because Tesla have delivered a long-range BEV at a significantly lower prices than the S and X.

They aren’t even selling it in European markets yet

There’s the Leaf+, Kona and Niro to come, unfortunately in small numbers.

The market’s going to be starved.

Pushmi-Pullyu

In the real world (not where you live), that kind of “skewing” is called “competition”. It wouldn’t merely be wrong to create a special category on the chart to place the Model 3 sales figures; it would be downright bizarre!

William

That whole “Production Hell” thingy, is looking more like “all rear view mirror”, right about NOW!

Scott

Yes. Remember 1 year ago? Tesla deep in production hell. They built something like 120 cars. What a difference 12 months makes

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Elon Musk wrote that they’re out of production hell. Out of hell, but they still have some production challenges to overcome.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Out of production hell and now in “delivery hell”. But that’s a “hell” every manufacturer would love to have! 🙂

amt

It’s Lonely At The Top ! Since There is No Competition., Tesla Will Have to Complete with Tesla and Keep on Breaking Previous Tesla Records !

Scott Franco

They are competing with ICE. Tesla is breaking out of the niche category into general car sales.

Nelson

Congratulation Tesla!
The Model 3 is truly a great car.
To coin a Honda slogan, the Model 3 really is the EV that “sells itself”.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

TM3x2 Chris

Thanks to Tesla (especially TM3), this month’s sales should exceed 40k units.

TM3x2 Chris

Update: the sales already exceeded 40k units; when all numbers are in, we should have 45k+ sales.

Zachary Hafen

Is my math wrong, or is Tesla responsible for 2% of total US sales this month?!

Viking79

By volume or revenue? By revenue will be much higher than an average car.

Alex

Numbers are a bit bigger than that.

I think not many are surprised by that number, it was clear that Tesla would sell all the cars they could produce during Q3, and the same will happen during Q4. The big question (for me) is about 2019 with the end of tax incentives and US market saturation. Fans will not like but I suspect sales in the US are going to go down severely and is yet to be seen if Tesla can compensate that with other markets.

I’m more curious about profits, I wouldn’t be surprised if this (also Q4) is the best quarter (sales) for Tesla before new models are released (or they start to make cars in China).

(This is me guessing, this is my opinion based in some evidences and a lot of gut feeling).

Michael

So the facts that every other market is going to be opened up in the next year and lower priced cars will come available and leasing will become available won’t lead to increased demand? On my son’s soccer teams I’ve had several parents ask me about my Model S and at least two of them have said they plan to buy the Model 3. Go talk to a bunch of college seniors and ask them what they plan to buy when they get their first job and are ready to get a new car.

Alex

Other markets will lead for sure to extra demand. What is to be seen is if that compensates the decrease of sales in the US (me guessing).
Reasons why I think US demand will be lower:
1 – Tax credit phasing out – Denmark and Hong Kong similar experience was a disaster for EV sales (I don’t expect an effect that is even closer, but still…).
2 – Waiting list in the US is about to be close – many waited over 2 years for the model 3. Current sales should be seen not just a demand from 1 year but a bit more than that.
3 – Market saturation – Tesla is selling half (a bit less I think) of the cars in California, in the entire US early car sales in the price range of Teslas are 1 million (to be confirmed). Tesla would require 30% of that market or a huge growth of it.

I don’t know if Tesla can decrease much the price of the cars, we’ll have to wait for the financial results, but if the profits are not strong I don’t see that happening without harming the company.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

In the case of Denmark and Hong Kong there were huge tax breaks and the effect was purely on very high end cars. Phaseout won’t have anywhere near as big an effect on the Model 3 in the USA.

Key period now, as they need to get the production efficiencies that allow them to release the SR early in 2019.

Alex

In those countries sales of affected cars dive to basically zero. I said I wasn’t expecting the same, not even closer.
I would feel a terrible internal conflict buying a model 3 during Q1 2019 in the US, don’t know how the general potential buyers will feel though.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I would feel a terrible internal conflict buying a model 3 during Q1 2019 in the US…”

I’m pretty sure that’s just you, dude.

antrik

The sales dived to zero after incentives were killed, because everyone contemplating to buy rushed to do so *before* the phaseout. It’s not quite the same situation here, since it’s not clear that Tesla will make enough long-rage premium interior Model 3 to satisfy all demand before the phase-out stats kicking in; and a whole new wave of demand will come in once Tesla starts delivering non-premium/non-long-range variants, as well as offering leases — since these things simply aren’t available before the phase-out starts, there is no way buyers can rush these purchases before phase-out.

Michael
Waiting list about to close? It’ll be reactivated for the SR version. Everyone still on that list will be the first in line (except for current S/X owners like me) to be able to configure the SR. They’ll work through that backlog over 2019 as they continue to build a mix of configurations. People are willing to pay more for what Tesla offers. Prior to buying our S in 2015, the most expensive cars we’d purchased were a Prius and a Sonata – we paid for DVD players in both headrests since we take long trips and our kids were little then. I started out looking at Teslas thinking I’d go for the 60 and told my wife the price point for those cars. After our test drive of a P85D I decided that I wanted the car to be capable of longer trips with the minimum number of short stops. So started penciling out an 85. But then as I read more I convinced myself that we really would benefit from the extra range and the safety from having the “D”. So I added that to the configurator. But Tesla had just started offering an extra 5kWh module for… Read more »
Alex

I tend not to care for personal cases.
Regarding the SR version – that would for sure increase demand a lot, but if Tesla can’t make a profit out of it, selling it in huge numbers would be a financial disaster.

antrik

The list of top trade-ins for Model 3 shows that these aren’t just personal cases, but rather a general trend.

Why wouldn’t Tesla be able to make a profit on the standard range variant? They say they can, and independent analysis confirmed it. It’s just baseless shorter FUD continually claiming otherwise.

Pushmi-Pullyu

If you insist on looking only at the negative factors influencing the market, and ignore the stronger positive ones, then of course you will come to a negative — and incorrect — conclusion.

Hong Kong caps the number of license plates issued each year, so total sales are strongly controlled by regulation. A change in regulation resulted in an entirely predictable limitation in sales. Using Hong Kong automobile sales as an analogy for U.S. sales is both uninformed and pointless.

Viking79

No, they will lower average transaction price with standard Model 3, but sales will still increase next year (my guess).

Alex

That means lowering profits (probably). We have to wait for the financial results to see what’s the margin to lower prices.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

If they can get the SR+PUP/SR+EAP profitable they’ll have plenty of sales.
But I expect early 2019 will see them starting delivering high spec 3s to Europe.

Michael

As they continue to improve production volume, build quality and efficiency, the margins will increase, which means fewer losses on the SR and more profits on the LR.

Viking79

I agree, which is why Musk said expect a profit (or positive cash flow at least) in Q3 and Q4. My guess is when they start producing high volume model their cash flow might go negative again. However, I think they will have positive margin on the car, but Autopilot/full self driving and other R&D and just other expenses might be enough to push them back negative.

antrik

They won’t start making the cheaper variants as long as they would have a negative contribution margin. But there is no reason to believe they will have a negative margin going forward. Extrapolating from Tesla’s margin projections for Q3 and Q4, they should be able to make a positive margin even on the cheapest variant before the year end. In other words: no, profits won’t go negative when they start selling the entry variants.

(Cash flow is more complex, as there are upcoming debt repayments, and AIUI Elon intends to actually pay these back rather than refinancing them…)

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…I suspect sales in the US are going to go down severely…”

Then prepare to be “severely” surprised. Once Tesla puts the SR version into production, sales will go up, and substantially… expired tax credit or not.

leafowner

Did Tesla fully outsell all of BMW for the Month in the US? I think it probable!

TM3x2 Chris

It’s not only probable, it is very likely.

Viking79

Likely, but probably need to look at the full quarter to account for S/X. The Model 3 is a bit of an exception since it is still ramping.

Henry

August US sales:

Model 3: total = 17800 (source: InsideEVs)
Tesla: cars = 20425, SUVs = 2750, total = 23175
BMW: cars = 14450, SUVs = 9339, total = 23789 (Pure EV = 0)
MB: cars = 8805, SUVs = 11534, total = 20339 (Pure EV = 1)

For September, looks like Model 3 alone will be roughly the same to MB’s total sales and Tesla total will exceed that of BMW, assuming 10% increase from August for both BMW and MB.

Mark.ca

What do you mean by BMW ev=0?
The i3 is 100% electric.

antrik

Mostly. There are a few REx exemplars sold as well…

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Almost certainly.
BMW September 2017 sales were 25,571 and 2018 sales have only been slightly higher.
As long as September continues BMW’s sales trend September will be lower, but the 2018Q3 sales will be higher than Tesla.

Texas Leaf

The Model 3 is still expensive and not very practical. The only reason the Model 3 is selling so well is because production is filling reservations that have existed for years. We will see whether Tesla can become a competitive main stream auto manufacturer or will just be a niche market supplier whenever production catches up to reservations.

TM3x2 Chris

This niche manufacturer already produces in volumes that Porsche delivered for years. If you consider Porsche a niche manufacturer than I don’t mind Tesla being called the same thing.

Texas Leaf

Porsche is just a single brand under the Volkswagen Auto Group. Since Porsche shares technologies, resources and expenses with the rest of the VW Auto Group and Tesla has to go it alone, it’s ridiculous to compare Porsche to Tesla. Porsche can continuously lose money and still survive as long as the VW Auto Group is solvent but Tesla has to eventually make a profit or it will have to go out of business.

TM3x2 Chris

Porsche was bought by VW in 2012. It was an independent manufacturer until then and it was always producing low-volume, niche market cars.

antrik

Actually, VW was bought by Porsche… Though the convoluted transaction obscures the fact somewhat.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…it’s ridiculous to compare Porsche to Tesla.”

Yes, but not for the reason you’re suggesting. The comparison will rapidly become even more ridiculous as Tesla’s sales continue to grow exponentially quarter after quarter, while Porsche remains a small niche manufacturer.

Alex

Porsche is a niche manufacturer – undoubtedly. It’s the only way they can be (if not mistaken) the most profitable car maker (maybe some makers than build less than 100 cars a years can beat them).

Viking79

Wait for the base Model 3 next year, sales will still increase some as demand will be even higher for that car.

Texas Leaf

There have only been 80,000 Model 3s delivered out to fill a 400,000 reservation list. At the current production rate the reservation list will NOT be filled next year. So no, next year sales will not give any indication of demand for the Model 3, but it will mean that some people have waited 3 and 4 years for their reservation to be filled.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

“it will mean that some people have waited 3 and 4 years for their reservation to be filled.”
Your words.
Consider the broader implication.

Texas Leaf

The broader implication is that Tesla does not know how to build cars. Ford sold two million Model Ts in one year and it sold 400,000 Mustang in 1965, the first year the Mustang was in production. Most auto manufacturers don’t have long waiting lists because they sell cars, not promises.

Some Guy

Please remind me, how long did it take Ford to ramp towards the 2 million Model T annually, from the first Model T being sold?
I always thought that legacy OEMs produce cars that they think they can sell and then those vehicles sit around on a stealership lot for an average of over three month until someone buys them at a discount. Having three month worth of inventory of an apparent “high demand article” just sitting around outside does not sound like the best business model ever in times of lean management, especially when the article is not some stuff like potatoes or apples, that can only be harvested seasonal.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“The broader implication is that Tesla does not know how to build cars.”

Wow. Seriously, dude? Why don’t you start your own auto manufacturing company, and show us all how much more you know than Tesla does. 🙄

You wouldn’t recognize a “broader implication” if it came up and bit you on the arse.

Michael

Wrong. The reservation list is not the size of the demand for Model 3. Demand is much larger than the folks who put down $1,000 to wait in line for 2+ years.

Texas Leaf

Not yet it’s not,

Some Guy

Well, as the possibility for downpayment of 2.5 k and ordering a higher trim Model 3 is open to anyone interested in the US, and people gladly accept, I’d say it is. Especially as new owners give rides to friends and co-workers who then get interested in buying one as well.
But don’t let facts confuse you.

P Roppo

The reservation list is completely irrelevant at this point and you should probably try to find another argument. Nobody here has any idea the current state of the reservation list – or how many new listees it has gained since. You, like the German legacy manufacturers forget that it is all a moving target.

Texas Leaf

You’re right. Maybe 300,000 reservationists cancelled their reservations and the list is drying up. Maybe next month the reservations will all be filled, there won’t be any more demand for the Model 3 and Tesla will go into bankruptcy.

TM3x2 Chris

Oh no, Tesla is going bankrupt again? I had better liquidate my Tesla position.

Pushmi-Pullyu

For sarcasm to work, it needs to have a point… and you don’t.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen comments from anyone so completely determined to ignore reality as you are. And that’s saying a lot.

Congratulations… I suppose that’s some sort of achievement. 🙄

Kosh

Circa 2007 – Yeah, sure, those new iPhones are expensive as hell and not very practical, and the long lines on opening day were only due to pent up demand. We’ll see if they can become competitive whenever production catches up to reservations!

jelloslug

Yawn, the same tired argument that has been repeated over and over again.

Michael

Not practical? Nonsense.

Texas Leaf

Oh yeah, right. You want to pay $60,000 a car that will go 0 to 60 mph in 3 second and has a very small trunk so that you can drive it 25 miles back and forth to work everyday and take the 2+ kids to soccer practice on the weekends. I don’t see practical here.

Doggydogworld

Unlike all those 15 mpg SUVs going 25 miles back and forth to work everyday, which are COMPLETELY practical.

Viking79

The trunk on the 3 is very large, midsize car size. Probably larger than Leaf if you don’t stack above the seat.

Some Guy

Fun fact: Model 3 has a frunk, too.

Get Real

LMAO at serial anti-Tesla TexLeaf who appears to be in complete denial of Tesla’s meteoric and continuing to gain altitude success with the Model 3.

Small trunk my posterior, maybe your reasoning capacity/powers of observation is small but the Model 3 trunk is cavernous.

It also has to be doubly painful to him that Model S & X sales also continue to flourish!

Pushmi-Pullyu

A Leaf owner who seems to be taking the runaway popularity of the Model 3 as a personal affront.

Maybe he needs to get therapy? Or maybe he just needs to realize the entire world — or even the entire EV market — isn’t about him.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I don’t know if you actually realize just how much you’re embarrassing yourself over all your sour grapes comments here. Yeah, if I owned a Leaf, I’d be jealous of Tesla car owners too. But I doubt I’d be so obvious about it!

John

The Model 3 is very impractical for those who dislike Tesla and EV’s in general. Why not take a poll of the Model 3 owners?

I always love folks who tell me how much my Model S sucks. Every single one of them had never even ridden (let alone driven) a Tesla.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“We will see whether Tesla can become a competitive main stream auto manufacturer or will just be a niche market supplier…”

The Tesla Model 3 was already the #5 best-selling car (not light truck) in the U.S., and that was before this month’s sales figures.

If you turn down the gain on your Tesla Basher Reality Distortion goggles, you might notice that Tesla has already become a mainstream auto manufacturer.

antrik

All these people buying every Model 3 Tesla can make have all missed that it’s “expensive and not very practical” 😛

Sure, demand will crash after pre-reservations are exhausted… Just like it has for Model S and Model X, right?

ffbj

My take is that Tesla will just go from strength to strength as more of the buying public gets their hands on this magnificent piece of machinery. Americans are dense but they’re not stupid. They can tell the difference between S… and Shinola, though at times they have to have it shoved in their face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTHL0y6xvLE

Texas Leaf

America was built on a foundation of cooperation and sharing the wealth, these concepts are foreign to Tesla.

TM3x2 Chris

How did you come to this conclusion? Sharing the wealth??? Have you heard of the 1%?

Mint

Conservatives like to pretend that the US was always about self sufficiency with minimal socialism, but there has been a staggering amount of hidden redistribution between states (via Medicare, SS, welfare, etc) for a long time.

That’s why the US never ran into the issues that the EU recently did with Greece, Spain, etc. EU redistribution is a small fraction of what happens in the US, and a shared is begging for disaster in such circumstances.

Nonetheless, Texas Leaf’s point is ridiculous. I don’t know any other automaker giving workers stock options.

Robert Weekley

Based on what – No Little League Sponsorships?
How about sharing Clean Air? Reducing Pollution?

tester

LOLWAT

Ron Swanson's Mustache

America was built on the notion that you can go and build your own fortune without having to sponge off of others.

It’s a sad reflection that there are people who think that state enforcement of confiscatory taxes and the like are somehow American.

Michael

Every tax is “confiscatory”. Especially tariffs, which were the largest revenue generators during the first years of our constitutional republic. This idea that it is “theft” is moronic and the invention of freeloaders who don’t want to pay the cost of living in a civil society.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, those who think taxes are an unfair burden to those living in a country with public education, public roads, clean drinking water, sewer systems, dependable electrical supply, police and fire departments, and public health services, all supported by taxes… are invited go to live some place without those benefits.

Go live in a part of Somalia outside government control. You won’t have to pay taxes. Of course you’ll have to pay protection money to the local warlord, but hey, at least it’s not taxes, right?

comment image

G2

America runs on “Dog eat dog” despite there being lots of great people trying to change that sad truth.
Texas Leaf, just how did you expect anyone to swallow that…stuff?

Mark.ca

What “America” are you talking about??!!
Do you know what capitalism means? It’s that thing that the real America is so proud of…read it up.

TJKR

Stop feeding the Troll.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“America was built on a foundation of cooperation and sharing the wealth, these concepts are foreign to Tesla.”

Dude, you need to take a good hard look in the mirror. The one trying to paint Tesla Model 3 sales as some sort of zero-sum game, as though Tesla’s sales are taking something away from you personally… That’s on you, not Tesla.

Tesla is the company that has offered its patents free to any other company willing to do the same.

Tesla is the company that is building a continent-wide Supercharger networks to support long-distance travel all over the world, and has invited other EV makers to join the project.

Tesla is the auto maker whose CEO welcomes other auto makers entering the EV manufacturing industry, because “A rising tide lifts all boats”.

You need to get over your painfully obvious jealousy of those who drive Tesla cars. Who knows? Maybe someday you’ll be able to afford one of your own.

antrik

Thanks for reminding us that all other car makers are socialist combines 😛

(PS. This is not meant as a jab at socialists — but bringing up such notions in this discussion is so absurd, it borders on surrealism…)

Texas Leaf

Wall Street doesn’t seem too impressed, the stock price is already down about 2 percent for the day.

Viking79

Profit taking and several wall street analysts already have bogus headlines. Tesla misses expectations… really? I see Business Insider corrected their blatantly false headline (according to numbers in their own story) and it now says they exceeded expectations.

Robert Weekley

Viking – Yes – the “Headline” may be correct, but the Stories URL still says they missed (Meaning – Fell Short, in Most Minds)!
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-model-3-deliveries-meet-guidance-miss-wall-street-expectations-2018-10-1027583292

antrik

They keep the URL as a reminder of how wrong they have been 😉

(More seriously, preserving URLs is a good thing in general.)

Michael

The production numbers were leaked and built into yesterday’s 18% rally.

Texas Leaf

If that’s the case then it sounds like Tesla is in store for yet another SEC law suit.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Wow. What a troll.

Sorry I wasted time writing detailed responses to this loser’s FÜD.

Mark.ca

Earnings are on the 7th dude! These are no official numbers.

John

When you bounce from one negative, unrelated point to the next, your intent is pretty obvious. Especially on a day of success for Tesla. Little hint- take breaks in between your negative comments, that way you can snow more than about 5% of the folks who visit this site with regularity.

Bryan

This is a nice month for sure but predicting the downfall of the ICEV is a bit premature. This is a touchdown in the first quarter not dropping the knee with an 8 point lead with 7 seconds to go.

Not that Dave

On sportscenter they will analyze the game and show highlights. The analysts will point out that the O-Line dominated the defense the entire first quarter which led to two bruising 1Q TDs by the RB with a couple broken tackles. The Winners then ran the ball down their throats the rest of the game. The highlight of the RB stiff arming the defender into the dirt and pushing his way into the end zone at the end of the first quarter is all anyone will remember of the game.

Robert Weekley

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In Q3, we produced 80,142 vehicles, 50% more than our prior all-time high in Q2…

Tesla broke down the deliveries per model:

Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles:
55,840 Model 3
14,470 Model S
13,190 Model X.

Per – the other guy – https://electrek.co/2018/10/02/tesla-q3-production-deliveries/
and source – https://globenewswire.com/Search/NewsSearch?keyword=Tesla%2C%20Inc.

There were lots in Canada, but – unless they Delivered Lots to Europe, it sounds like they likely delivered over 50,000 to the USA this Quarter! Since I also don’t think they started Deliveries to Mexico, I would like to see how many were sold in Canada – since I heard (Twitter Post) there were a goal of 300 Deliveries in Toronto, on Sept. 30th!

I see insideevs tallies out at 54,300 USA Model 3’s! All together, that means only 1,540 Model 3’s were delivered in all of Canada – For the Whole Quarter? Interesting – I think the Number is quite possibly higher!

OK *Update – they are done their maintenance on their Database – here is the full link:
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/10/02/1588592/0/en/Tesla-Q3-2018-Vehicle-Production-and-Deliveries.html

Atlantis

Only 115 Model 3 sold in Canada in July, and only 95 sold in August. And we only be sure for September numbers in November. So, it would be 1540 – 210 = 1330 in September. (Sources:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLFJwZVdvNLRpmZqPznlzz6PB9eHMe5b-bai_ddRsNg/edit#gid=25)

G2

Those numbers for Canada seem very low, unless they were *all* delivered to my small city on Vancouver Island.😄

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Since I also don’t think they started Deliveries to Mexico…”

It would be no more than a rounding error if they had. No offense to our south-of-the-border amigos, but there isn’t much demand for Tesla cars there. There is only one Tesla store in all of Mexico.

rey

What did Elon say a few months ago? something like being like “We just became a real car company “.

Atlantis

Eric, “And it’s the first time ever an electric car surpassed 20,000 sales in a month in the U.S”, this sentence would be more accurate like that “And it’s the first time ever an electric car surpassed 20,000 sales in a month in the WORLD”, as the previous record was from the BAIC EC-Series, with 15719 sales in China in November 2017. (Source: http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2017/12/china-november-2017.html)

Some Guy

Technically, the >17 k sales of the Model 3 in August 2018 in US already dethroned the November 2017 BAIC EC-series record, but you are right with the World statement, though.

BillT

Excellent and mine was one of those.

Konrad

Yet, still unavailable in EU. 🙁

Michael

Hold steady, Konrad. They’re coming for you!

Pushmi-Pullyu

comment image

Ron Swanson's Mustache

So any analysis out there on how these numbers will impact Tesla’s road to profitability?

Michael

With the mix of vehicles skewed toward the higher spec cars and this much volume, I would expect them to make a profit in Q3. Margin should continue to improve as they get build quality improvements to minimize rework.

Ron Swanson's Mustache

That seems like a reasonable analysis. I guess the big question marks there will be how much of the money they’re making from the Model 3 will get reinvested in expanding the Gigafactory and Fremont facility.

antrik

It sounds like not too much over the next months, since according to analysts who visited the respective facilities, they should be able to scale to ~8,000 per week will little CapEx… After that (presumably Q1 or Q2 2019), some bigger investments are likely in order again. And of course preparations for Model Y and Semi production at some point…

Pushmi-Pullyu

I don’t think the delivery numbers will have much impact. Elon has made a big deal out of Tesla becoming profitable, so what the market is waiting to see is the profit-and-loss statement. With Elon sending out a company-wide email on Saturday exhorting workers to greater efforts, saying they were close to profitability but had not yet achieved it, my guess is that Tesla will show a very thin net profit for the quarter.

I hesitate to even suggest how that will affect the market, since my guesses in that regard are usually wrong (which is why I so rarely post them). Remember that the market price is always a reflection of investors’ guesses as to where the company is going, not where it is. So if investors were already expecting Tesla to show a profit, an announcement of a very thin net profit margin might be seen as disappointing. Or it might be seen as mildly positive.

antrik

The way I read it, he didn’t say they haven’t reached profitability yet; but rather, that it wasn’t yet *certain* that they did…

As for expectations, Wall Street consensus seems to be a small loss.

G2

The LICE industry will only continue to shrink from this day forward. For those of you still holding LICE infected investments (including oil) your continued lack of action will be rewarded with steady declines.
Sorry ’bout that….

Pushmi-Pullyu

The gasmobile market will continue to expand rapidly in swiftly industrializing countries such as India and China. China is trying hard to promote EVs over gasmobiles, but even a totalitarian government can’t alter the reality that most Chinese can’t find a place to charge an EV. That’s going to have to change before most Chinese can seriously consider driving one. The entrenched corruption of petty local officials that is part of the problem (making it difficult to get local approval for installing an EV charger) has been around much longer than the communists have, so that’s going to be extremely difficult for the Chinese central government to eradicate.

antrik

First time I hear of this supposed problem. Where did you read that?

As far as I’m aware, reality is that the big cities are severely limiting the amount of licenses issued for combustion cars — so there is no way the combustion car market can expand rapidly… At least not in the big cities.

Brett

Tesla delivered 30,000 units combined in a single month (possibly higher, that appears to only be US deliveries). Assuming they can maintain that rate going forward, that’s 360,000 units per year, doesn’t leave much room to improve upon September production numbers. The theoretical production capacity of NUUMI was 500,000 cars, but only ever peaked at 430,000 units per year.

Read: Tesla is operating their factory at 84% of pervious realistic production capacity. Not sure if the ‘Tent’ line augments that realistic capacity significantly, but assuming that their production doesn’t suffer any setbacks, Tesla will probably see monthly production numbers plateau between 35,000-40,000 per month until they can add a second factory.

I’ll be the first to admit, I thought it would take them way longer to scale to this level, I didn’t doubt their ability to do it, just thought it would take closer to 24 months reach this kind of volume for the Model 3. Beyond impressive. Hopefully the lessons learned throughout the year will reduce ‘manufacturing hell’ to ‘manufacturing steady state’ in the next quarter or two.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla has built or is building a second tent at the Fremont plant, for post-assembly work such as putting wraps on cars. Is it possible they will add yet another tent for yet another production line?

Tesla clearly isn’t allowing the finite space inside its one single auto assembly plant to be an absolute limit to production! Of course there will be some finite limit to how fast they can ship parts in and cars out at a single location, but I certainly would not venture to guess what that limit will be!

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-is-building-second-tent-at-its-fremont-factory-2018-10

Brett

The whole manufacturing tent idea is pretty cool, and probably way lighter on capex, which is good for cash flow. I don’t know what the winter climate is like where the Tesla factory is, but I guess it’s mild enough that the tent isn’t an issue. Seems to be a lot of upsides to being able to have temporary work spaces, would be curious to know the downsides, aside from the limitations in crazy cold climates (like where I live).

Who knows, there may be a lot of ‘tents’ going up in China very shortly to kickstart production while Gigafactory 3 is under construction.

antrik

Shanghai seems a much more tricky climate, more like the south-east of the US. Not sure Sprung structure would work equally well there…

antrik

You can’t really compare the capacity of the NUMMI plant. On one hand, that wasn’t *nearly* as much vertically integrated — in fact some people suggested that it essentially did just final assembly… On the other hand, the Facility has been expanded to several times the original size during Tesla’s tenure.

Alan Campbell

Congratulations Tesla!!!

Tesla talked about building a sub $25k car for a very good reason. The EV consumer is the younger consumer, which means if Tesla can offer an EV at a price to be the first car, the consumer won’t ever go to ICE. And Tesla has a customer for many years to come.

And I wonder if the Y will be that less expensive model, instead of building another ‘SUV’ like the ICE industry, but go more like BMW with the SAV(sports activity vehicle) separating it even more from ICE vehicles.

Looking at sales, it seems like Tesla will outsell all other plug-in vehicles combined by the end of year in the US.

BTW……any word on the construction of the plant for Y, Semi and Roadster production in the US? I think I read the China plant construction has already begun. Pushed ahead by the trade war. With cars rolling off the line in 2020.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I think the Model Y development is far enough along that we can be sure it will be the crossover version of the Model 3, just as the Model X is (or at least was originally intended to be) the crossover version of the Model S.

A lower priced “compact car” is something Elon has mentioned a couple of times, but I think only musing about it as something that it would be nice to do someday.

No word yet on the location for U.S. production of the Model Y or the Semi. I wouldn’t look for any major announcement about where the next-gen Roadster is to be built; that will be a partially hand-built car, made in low numbers, and is unlikely to need or use a dedicated assembly plant. My guess is it will be built at Gigafactory 1, altho that location does not have (for example) any of the giant body panel stamping machines. Not yet, anyway!

antrik

I think I remember reading that Roadster sales are expected to be in the thousands per year?… Not sure though. I agree though that it shouldn’t need to much space.

antrik

The hypothetical $25,000 Tesla will definitely come after the Model Y; probably several years later.

I don’t think many first-time car buyers actually get a new car?… Which might be a problem, since at the current growing rate, the used electric car market will always be fairly small compared to the new electric car market over the next decade or so 🙁

John

Gotta chuckle at the haters new moving bar of failure after Tesla met their delivery number goal: delivery issues. It’s amusing to see the panic at Tesla’s continued rising success. We’re approaching the point where all the haters will have left is to thumbs down folks like me, nothing more.

Richard

..this is wonderful news… as economies of scale ramp up the gee whiz, greenie techno element will fade and electrics will move into the mainstream of general acceptance. This will put downward pressure on price-points and making electrics even more desirable to the general motoring public. The biggest single limitation is a rapid level 3 and 4 charging network, particularly for the non-Tesla crowd. This is an earthquake, Big Oil and Gas are already grumbling and politicians are starting to get concerned about all those missing taxes they used to get from the fuel pumps. Guaranteed they will be scheming, for the public trough shall not go dry. Range anxiety is gone, $150/hr dealership auto mechanics and oil change artists are crying in their beer.

We are on the cusp.. the future is now.

antrik

Fast and ultra-fast charging networks are being built out right now — it won’t be a problem for long.

As for prices, it’s rather the other way around: as costs and thus prices drop, EVs go more and more mainstream.

Will

👏👏👏👏👏

Terawatt

I propose a fun game: When will Tesla have overtaken Audi, BMW and Mercedes, in terms of total number of cars sold, in the European (EU/EEC) market?

I really have no idea, but I suppose it will take a while, so I’ll guess Q2, 2022.

antrik

Not sure that will ever happen, unless and until Tesla enters much more mainstream market segments… In the premium market it’s active in right now, competing with the European brands on their home turf is tough — especially as they are getting more serious about EVs, with more competitive models presumably coming around 2021 or so.

Doggydogworld

Those three are each a bit over 2m/year. Let’s say half Europe. Tesla is about 20% Europe. So Tesla would need to be around 5 million cars/year total. That’s 10 Gigafactories, so 2022 is a tad optimistic.

Dr Douglas Watt

Forget about the Model 3 breaking records for EV. It’s dominating the premium sedan class. This report kinda misses the boat in that sense. It is slowly but surely eroding the market share of two previously ‘untouchable’ iconic brands, Mercedes and BMW, and its total sedan sales this year are close to those two German automakers COMBINED!!