Tesla Model 3 Sales Charge Way Past Milestone Of 100,000 In U.S.

DEC 4 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 83

Tesla Model 3 sales up slightly in November as YTD figure blows past 100,000.

The big Tesla Model 3 push will likely again return next month Q4 comes to an end.

In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July, which amounted to 14,250. Then, in August, sales shot up to 17,800. Then, September closed out Q3 with a real blast as sales hit 22,250 units.

Q4 started out predictably softer with Tesla Model 3 sales at 17,750 in the U.S. in October. That was the third-best sales result ever for the Model 3 in the U.S.

But now, there’s a new #3 as sales of the Model 3 begin to tick upwards again as the quarter moves on. For November, InsideEVs estimates Tesla sold 18,650 Model 3 in the U.S. (*this figure doesn’t include Canada).

Year-Over-Year

If we look at year-over-year for the Model 3, the gains are ridiculous. In November 2017, Tesla sold 337 Model 3. Compare that to last month’s 18,650 and you’ll notice there’s more than just a wee bit of growth there.

The YTD tally so far for the Model 3 stands at 114,472. Cumulative sales now stand at 116,296, which is higher than all plug-in vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2015.

The highest previous volume of sales ever for an electric car in a single year was back in 2014 when LEAF sales hit 30,200, so the Model 3 obliterated that record and there’s still one big Model 3 month left for the year.

Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X

For November, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 2,750
  • Tesla Model X – 3,200

More Model S & X sales info for November here

Tesla holds a commanding lead in plug-in electric car sales for the year and will not be challenged by any other automaker for the YTD win. Our tally puts the automaker at a combined total of 159,0277 sold (Model 3, S & X) in the U.S. through the first 11 months of 2018.

TESLA MODEL 3

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

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83 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Sales Charge Way Past Milestone Of 100,000 In U.S."

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Clive

Go Tesla Go …

There are absolutely killing it ❗️

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

Go Tesla Go! Show those dirty gas guzzlers… uhhh, I can’t quite do it like Mister G.

dathomir

Voted up for trying!
>D

Scott Franco

And their stock is up today, $361. Go Tesla! Getting bored with success?

Clive

I am happy for Tesla’s success.

Driving Model 3 once again tomorrow morning for about an hour.

I am planning to return my leased Leaf 🍃 to Nissan and never look back.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

Congrats and thank you for not going back to Leaf!

Clive

You bet Sparky!

William

I’m 10 months (leased Leaf) right behind you.

However, I might check the rear view once or twice, checking to see how Carlos is holding up, once he finally gets sprung from the 5 Star Japanese Grey Bar Hotel.

Clive

Willam- I have high hopes for Carlos.

They clearly don’t have enough to Charge him or Greg.

And they will never wear him out or get him to break down either.

The Japanese got exactly what they wanted, now they’re just being stupid!!!

rey

Don’t know about stupid,but ungrateful for sure.

Clive

How about dishonest, and dishonorable ‼️

Mike

That’s what I just did after two LEAFs

Clive

Nice.

Right behind you Mr Mike !!!

RedPillSucks

Bwhahaha… Turning over a new leaf?
(sorry, couldn’t resist)

Pushmi-Pullyu

“And their stock is up today, $361.”

Flying Spaghetti Monster be praised! Not too far from the all-time high. No wonder we haven’t heard much from the short-selling serial Tesla bashers lately!

Ron M

Tesla managed to stay positive at the end of the day. Considering the Dow lost 800 points that’s good news for Tesla. Stock market was up on Monday because Trump tweeted China agreed to buy more US goods and remove tariffs. After it was confirmed that no deal was made the market went down the rest of Monday. Tuesday was a bloodbath sea of red. Yet another example of Trump lying but his supporters will spin it somehow. He’s not talking about until Thursday out of respect for Bush. Sure most likely trying to figure out who he can blame. He’ll probably fire one of the Whitehouse cooks that illegally used his phone made the tweet

Lee Ramer

All hail the Flying Spaghetti Monster and my personal favorite-> The god of Thunderrrrrrrr…..Thor!!!!

Windbourne

not bad considering that dow plummeted.

Morten Lund

The most important part of this article besides the seemingly great numbers – is that these are ESTIMATES.
@Eric Loveday: What is your estimate of the total Model 3 numbers sold worldwide (US and Canada at this point)? Because when I add up your numbers for the USA and Canada, including the low number produced in 2017, it seems like the estimates are really low (sub 125.000), compared to other data-based estimates (>130,000)

Steven Loveday

Our total so far for 2018 is 114,500, and 2017 was 1760. So about 116,000 have been delivered in the U.S. While we don’t track Canada, some 750 or so were likely delivered there just this month, in addition to deliveries in Canada during other months.

You mention “produced” in 2017, but remember, we aren’t tracking production at all, like some other sites. We are only tracking cars that end up in people’s driveways. There are many cars that were built but have yet to be delivered. This is especially true during months that deliveries are far from Fremont. What data-based estimates are you referring to and how do you feel our number is off? Thus far, it has been spot on every quarter when Tesla provides numbers.

Morten Lund

Bloombergs production estimates and TroyTeslike’s spreadsheet
I meant “delivered” not produced, so disregard that.
If the production estimates are anything to go by and you sales-estimates likewise, it would mean that 12,000-14,000 cars are in transit, sitting at holdning areas waiting to finalizing of the sale. I personally find that number really high, which leads to believe that either your sales numbers are low or there are more 3’s in transit at one time than I realize.
Could you give insight into the data you use and how you calculate sales numbers?

DrDauger

Read this first Morten:
https://insideevs.com/insideevs-handle-sales-estimates-methodology/
Then ask if you have further questions.

Doggydogworld

Morten – in transit tends to be MUCH higher during the quarter than at the end of the quarter. Tesla organizes their shipments to dramatically reduce inventory right at the end of each quarter.

Steven Loveday

Precisely!

Roy_H

Yes, that applies to the last month in the quarter. But is there any reason there would be dramatically more cars in transit November vs October? I doubt it so I believe production closely tracks sales for middle of the quarter months.

RedPillSucks

Yes, people (in the US, anyway) are converting from SR to MR or LR to get something before tax credit phaseout

Ron M

I’m confused by your question what are the low number produced in 2017. What is number that your talking about. Also what data-based estimates are you referring to please provide a link.
In the past Inside EV has been very close to the actual number with it’s estimates.

Morten Lund

Production estimates that I was talking about:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YeLtMxFt9Lh8mndZhjOqrzFfWQ_r5T9LS-l3gQzPXCk/edit#gid=0
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

InsideEvs have been close or completely right, because they never post the sales-numbers for the last month of a quarter, before Tesla posts official numbers. Thus they can just subtract the first two months numbers from the official total for the quarter, to calculate the last month of the quarter sales. Thereby Insideevs total numbers add up to Teslas official numbers, even though the month-by-month numbers are likely inaccurate.

Steven Loveday

We estimate first and only adjust in rare cases when we need to. Overall, we have still been within 1-3% prior to Tesla releasing quarterly numbers.

Wade Malone

Yes we do post our expectations for the last month of the quarter. We have done so since I started calculating them.

https://insideevs.com/september-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicles-sales-what-to-expect/

We will list projections again this quarter before Tesla does.

But we will not update the plug-in sales chart until we have final data from Tesla. Once Tesla releases numbers, we will finalize our estimates before adding to the scorecard.

If you want our projection, read next months ‘What to expect’ article. If you don’t, feel free to ignore it. No hard feelings.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“InsideEvs have been close or completely right, because they never post the sales-numbers for the last month of a quarter, before Tesla posts official numbers.”

Completely untrue. IEVs used to post its Tesla sales/delivery estimates as soon as the newest Monthly Plug-in Sales Report Card article went up, every month. It’s only been rather lately, since Tesla crossed the 200,000 U.S. sales milestone, that IEVs has gotten more cautious about posting its estimates.

Derp

I know this doesn’t include Canada but doing some quick math:
18,650/4 weeks = 4662 cars for USA per week
so I would want to hear about this many Nov deliveries in Canada to get us to the minimum bar of 5k/week
4*338 = 1,352

Steven Loveday

You are talking about production. This is how many cars were delivered. You can’t use delivery numbers to estimate production. It doesn’t work that way. Every car that’s built doesn’t instantly materialize in and owner’s driveway. There are a whole set of logistics involved in getting the cars delivered, and we know full well that there are many Model 3s that were produced and are not yet delivered or are in transit, etc.

Morten Lund

Do you dare venture a guess, at how many could possibly be in transit at one time?

Steven Loveday

We are looking at numbers still. Busy times.

Clive

Yes indeed Steven… 😉

The entire auto industry is being turned on to its head.

Arpe

Knowing Tesla, through the knowledge of insideEVs. Tesla uses a delivery routine where they in the beginning of the quarters (1-2 months) ship vehicles as far away as possible. This lead to lower deliveries in the first two months of each quarter, this time Oct/Nov, and higher deliveries in December. This way Tesla maximizes the deliveries throughout each quarter as vehicles produced later in December will be arriving to people living close to the factory.

Bottom line, high transit numbers in 1-2. months each quarter to secure low transit number in 3rd month each quarter to provide high delivery numbers and earning profits for quarterly earning calls.

Taylor Marks

Dang. Seems unlikely that November will be a new #1 for US EV sales if Model 3 sales are so low. The vehicles we don’t have numbers for yet only sold 3243 combined in October… we’d need them to sell over 5000 together to set a new record. If every single one of the unreported numbers matched their best of the year so far, you’d just barely have a new record month in November… but that’s obviously impossible, as it includes stuff like 794 sales of the Ford Fusion Energi.

Steven Loveday

Model 3 sales are not low. How are they so low? They are the best month ever aside from the final month of Q3. Some also went to Canada. People will be really sorry when Tesla starts delivering Model 3s overseas and then folks say, wow Model 3 sales are way down. They are very impressive for sure, especially since they aren’t focused on delivery all in the California area like they did in September. We knew this month would never beat September. We estimated about 40k total, which will easily be beaten. The middle of a quarter never beats and end-of-quarter push.

Roy_H

The point is that November sales are lower than September despite the claim that the production line is still ramping up. But in fact appears to be flat for September through November at about 4,400 Model 3 per week. Hopefully Tesla will realize its goal of 7k/wk in December.

Steven Loveday

They made a point of pushing deliveries hard in September. That wasn’t the case in October or November. To be honest, at InsideEVs, production really makes no difference to us. Whether or not they hit 5000 6000 7000, really makes no difference to us. We’re just laser focused on deliveries to customers.

Udi

Well obviously deliveries are reliant on the production volume.
On a yearly basis (on a long enough time period), you can’t deliver more than you manufacture.
If we presume that the current sales are constraint by the manufacturing capacity (as I do), than of course production increase is crucial.

Ron M

Maybe some of the other EV manufacturers need to pick up the pace.

William

That “pace” may need more than a “pick up”, that is if certain unnamed countries follow through, with today’s idle threats, referencing shutting down The Straight of Hormuz.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rferl.org/amp/29636728.html

Ron M

Saudi Arabia has F-16’s it’s there problem, the US needs to stay out of it. If Saudi Arabia wants a war with Iran. Let them go at it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Automobile sales are highly seasonal. Overall, the highest sales are in September and December. I doubt the trend of EV sales is going to be significantly different, Tesla notwithstanding.

Furthermore, the IEVs Sales Report Card charts are for U.S. sales only, and Tesla only maximizes its domestic sales in the last month of a quarter. So it’s entirely unrealistic to expect Tesla’s November sales to exceed September’s. But we can expect December sales to easily be the highest of the year, both from Tesla and the overall total on IEVs’ chart.

Ron M

Looks like Tesla will sell 180,000 EV’s in the US in 2018. Total EV sales over 350,000. Total global EV salves over 2 million. EV’s win Koch Brothers lose I love it.

Doggydogworld

Tesla might even hit 190k in the US.

Koch brothers still have 1+ billion ICE cars and light trucks plus big trucks, boats, planes, etc. to buy their fuel. They’ll be OK for a while.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, I doubt the Koch Bros. see themselves as “losing” because of a tiny percentage of new car sales are EVs. Gasmobile sales are increasing faster in developing countries like India and China than the year-on-year increase in EV sales.

That will almost certainly change within a few years as the EV revolution continues to accelerate, but for now… the Koch Bros. are still accumulating wealth (and making income inequality worse) faster than they can count. 🙁

M Hovis

That’s right, but don’t think for a second that light trucks, big trucks, boats, and yes planes will be electric. The Koch brothers are the Masters of War that Robert Zimmerman refers to when he wrote:
“And I hope that you die
And your death will come soon
I will follow your casket
By the pale afternoon
And I’ll watch while you’re lowered
Down to your deathbed
And I’ll stand over your grave
‘Til I’m sure that you’re dead”
Thinks that’s cold? Yes, big oil led the industrial revolution. They also have been responsible for more deaths than all the world wars combined and then some. Capitalism is a steely knife, not your enemy nor your friend. I can celebrate the advancements made for mankind by oil when another solution did not exist and knowledge of the devastation was not completely known. The Kochs know better and whether you like it or not, it makes them murders. This is how history will judge.
Note to self, don’t post during happy hour…..

Emc2

And also pass the 500K milestone of cum sales since inception of the Roadster! Only the Renault-Nissan Alliance has passed that mark so far (and it will be left behind next year)

Zachary Hafen

18650? But the Model 3 runs on 21700s! 😎

Steven Loveday

Nice!

DrDauger

So that means we can guess it’s 21700 Model 3 sales in December? 😉

Steven Loveday

That sounds like a plan.

jeffhre

Yep. Not counting the few thousand more – used as a buffer.

Assaf

Cool news! You can add that the Model 3 is also setting the annual record for global EV sales at the same time, since the previous record was set last year by the BAIC EC-series, with 78k sales (they broke the Leaf’s 2014 record of 60k, such a disappointment that Nissan couldn’t continue that momentum). This also means that the Model 3 is the first EV ever to log 6-figure sales in a single year, a sort of entry milestone into the Big Leagues of global car sales (very few cars go into 7 figures in one year).
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/world-top-20-december-2017.html

In fact, all 3 of these EVs – Model 3, EC-Series, and Leaf – will break the 2017 world record this year, and at least 2 of them will go into 6 figures. But the Model 3 is far out front.

A quick question: do you know how many of November sales were of the new mid-range flavor?

Big Solar

18650, nice number guys.

Wade Malone

That was actually completely unintentional on our part. We came to our estimate then rounded up to the nearest 10.

I didn’t even notice it until you sharp readers pointed it out! XD

Pushmi-Pullyu

“That was actually completely unintentional on our part.”

That’s your story and you’re sticking to it, hmmm? 😉

(I’d say “eh?” instead of “hmmm?”, but your chart doesn’t include Canadian sales. 😉 )

Jeff

Why it anyone surprised by this? Of course this only means EV credits are getting eliminated soon!

mike

wow – so this year they will deliver more Model 3’s than Nissan have ever sold Leafs?
Have to wonder what would have happened if Nissan had really tried.
Nissan sell some good cars – a real bev version of the Maxima would have great, but a bev 370Z would have been awesome,

Assaf

No. Nissan is approaching 400k Leafs worldwide.

Model 3 broke the Leaf’s 2014 record for most EVs sold in the US in a single year.

Emc2

Check the all-time best-selling list of plug-ins in the following link, the Model 3 just entered the 100K club in October. There were a dozen plug-in models ahead of the Model 3, though in the November tally it will go ahead at least three places, including passing the Model X:
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/11/global-all-time-top-5-until-oct-18.html

Emc2

With cumulative sales of 116,296 the Model 3 now joints the only three models that have passed the 100K mark in the U.S. and joints the all-time top selling plug-in cars @ number 4 in just a bit more than a year!

As InsideEVs reported recently (check https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-volt-dead-electric-car-sales-leader/), as of October the top selling plug-ins were:
Chevrolet Volt 148,556 + 3,930 Nov = 152,486
Tesla Model S about 138,000 + 2,750 = 140,750
Nissan Leaf 126,747 + 1,128 = 127,875
And number four is the Prius PHEV with 88,277 @ Oct + 2,312 = 90,539

Being now the end of the quarter, the Model 3 will certainly surpass the Leaf to become in this month the U.S. all-time #3!!!
At this rate the Model 3 will surpass the Model S and the Volt before the end of Q1 2019. Sorry for the Chevy Volt to lose its crown before its end of production, but hail to the new King!

Emc2

Oops!, the PiP was #4 until September, now #5

Emc2

See below

Benz

Tesla has delivered it’s 200,000th EV in November (for the year 2018).

That means that Tesla has already delivered twice as many EV’s in 2018 (compared to the annual total of 2017).

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, but for U.S. sales/deliveries only. Worldwide, I don’t know if Tesla has (yet) exceeded a 100% year-on-year increase.

Benz

Tesla worldwide deliveries in 2017 were slightly more than 100,000.

Tesla has already crossed the 200,000 milestone in November 2018.

Global total after the first 10 months in 2018: 177,287
Tesla deliveries in the US in November 2018: 24,600

And the Tesla deliveries in other countries in November 2018 haven’t even been revealed yet. So, the total number is much higher than 200,000.

Epsilon

They’ll have to plan on 500K Model Y units/year.

Windbourne

They will do over 250K next year.

Windbourne

How soon will the shorters get here and claim that Tesla is going to loose loads of money on Solar and Batteries?
All the while, they are ignoring what is happening in Australia.

Fabio

Eric it’s M3 second highest month

Ed

If you were Elon Musk and Teslas are selling really well, do you increase the profit margin or lower it?

TomArt

If the S and X are any example, he will raise the profit margin by raising the battery trim starting prices and make some options standard. That supposedly helped cut some S and X costs that way. Just make every car pretty much the same except for a few paint and wheel options.

CDspeed

With the orders they received, and all the cars being pre-sold for a while they’re just filling orders. And the higher they ramp up production the higher their sold number goes, but how many new orders do they have? How many new customers have they gotten in those months versus people sitting on the waiting list…..

Chunkybuns

But…but….but Bob Lutz said…

Al

It’s going to cost a lot of money to recall so many cars.

Clive

It will cost you nothing to go get a life ‼️

Morten Lund

Pr. Electrek:
“[…] Tesla notes that it has shipped excess inventory to its dealers in anticipation for demand.”

So there might actually be between 12,000-14,000 in transit as argued below, and thus it might explain the large gab between delivered and produced estimates.

TomArt

Tesla just does things differently. You can’t project sales, on a monthly basis, from monthly manufacturing data. The disparity will be alot higher once they start shipping to Europe and Asia, as they did for the S and X ramp-ups.

And, you never know when they are going to shift priorities, like in the article you mentioned above, to batch more vehicles than ordered to get inventory out, ready for immediate sale. Musk promised everyone who ordered by 11/30 will get their car by 12/31 to get the last of the full tax credit. That’s a scary promise, so the disparity in manufacturing and sales makes sense.