UPDATE: Tesla Model 3 Just Beat Monthly Sales Record Set By Model S

Tesla Model 3

JUN 6 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 185

The top sales spot for plug-in electric cars in the U.S. is once again held by the Tesla Model 3.

For the month of May, it was no contest.

Not even close.

The Model 3 simply blew any would-be competitors away this past month with sales estimated at 6,250 in the U.S. That blows away April’s result of 3,875 Model 3s sold.

***Update: Well, if you had any doubts about our Tesla Model 3 delivery number, the automaker has all but confirmed that 6,250 is nearly spot on. While Tesla’s charts aren’t exact, do a bit of quick math – and depending on how you calculate the percentages – you should come to a number between 6,100 and 6,300 for the month of May. Pretty nifty!

We estimate sales of the Model S at 1,520 for the month of May, while the Model X trails just barely with an estimated 1,450 sold last month.

Combined, Tesla sold an estimated 9,220, which of course puts the automaker in the number one sales spot for the month too.

Back to the Model 3…we suspect that when the month’s final sales numbers are reported, the Model 3 will have outsold the next closest plug-in electric car by a ratio of well over 2 to 1.

Lastly, Tesla started delivering some Model 3 in Canada in May too. While we don’t have estimates for Canadian Model 3 sales, we can confidently say that those units upped the total monthly ante by hundreds, if not more.

Oh…there’s one last bit of brag-worthy news here. At 6,250 sold, the Model 3 is now the single-month sales record holder for the U.S., surpassing the old record of 5,850 Model S sales back in late 2016.

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185 Comments on "UPDATE: Tesla Model 3 Just Beat Monthly Sales Record Set By Model S"

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John

Its happening..

bro1999

I have to admit, that’s pretty impressive.

Dave

June will be much better, I am predicting 10K deliveries of Model 3 in June. Still not even close to Tesla’s guidance, but a step in the right direction for sure.

Zaphod

June will be pretty much flat with same numbers, unless you mean 10K combination US and Canadian deliveries. With 200,000 sold milestone looming for the US tax credit situation, they need to stretch it out in June as much as they can, so it doesn’t happen until beginning of July for start of Q3. I expect Canadian deliveries to be significant for June with US deliveries about the same quantity as May.

Dave

Tesla is not going to play any games with the Tax credit, they are going to deliver all they can in Q2, and will fly past the 200K

S and X will have a huge June…. Just watch…

Mikael

Not a chance…July will be huge though.

Dave

Want to bet?

madflower

I would put money on it. I am not even a Tesla stockholder. It makes a LOT more sense to ship everything overseas to prevent crossing this quarter. They don’t need to curb production as they just ship more overseas. They are still ramping up production. Wait a month or two longer, and allow what 20k more customers to claim an 8k tax credit which makes them happier. A couple of months after like a 3 year wait is nothing. Plus you -want- the M3 to be seen in as large of area as possible so you get more orders and that means globally.

MTN Ranger

Other than Canada, do we have proof that Tesla has homologated the Model 3 for Europe and elsewhere yet?

Robert Weekley

Just wondering if delivering to Mexico, extra Model S, X, and starting Model 3 delivery there is another potential gate for controlling how many go to the US for June? Does it need different Regulations to be met, than USA or Canada vehicles? Basically, we know they are delivering lots of Model 3’s to Canada, because of Tesla Fans 1st, and Tesla Tweets later! Mexico might join the party for extra Model S & X deliveries, even if Model 3 doesn’t! Number of Superchargers in Mexico is growing, too, and it looks it will not be long before at least 1 route will be drivable from Texas or Arizona to Mexico City, and beyond!

Pushmi-Pullyu

No offense to any Tesla fans in Mexico (Hola, amigos!), but there is only one single Tesla store in all of Mexico, which is an indication of the low demand and low sales there.

Nix

…..of Model S and Model X to date.

That doesn’t really reflect on any Model 3 demand one way or the other. With that said, there is no documentation supporting any exports to Mexico as of May, and no documentation of anyone in Mexico even being invited to finalize any reservations for June.

Also Mexico isn’t a party to the APTA trade agreement that is between the US and Canada that led to Canada and the US having nearly identical automotive standards that makes exporting to Canada so easy.

aip

There are a few registered in Europe, so likely yes (it would not makes sense to not homologate the model and register them as one-off models).

dmm1240

It will be closer to 70,000 receiving the full tax credit if Tesla manages to stay under the tax credit for the remainder of the year. Production is about to exceed 20,000 a month. Multiply by 3 and you get 60,000+ if Tesla simply holds to the 5,000 per week target the remainder of the year. I expect them to be over that by December. Whatever the figure, it will mean an additional $3,750 apiece in the pockets of Tesla customers for another quarter.

Knut Erik Ballestad

Except, you have to double your numbers….
…if they cross the tax credit limit in Q3, the full tax credit applies for Q3 + Q4 (6 months). That means 120 000 M3’s at a rate of 5000/week.

floydboy

We have a winner!

Tom

You never know….Elon Musk may be clinically insane after all.

Taylor Marks

Tesla only reports global, not US numbers. If they want a blowout quarter for Model S and X, they can push in any country – no reason it has to be the US. They’re selling crazy fast in China now – they could just send a whole boatload or two of Model S and X to China (as I recall, they can ship 6K per boat?)

Pushmi-Pullyu

Model 3 sales alone will be enough to push Tesla over the 200,000 mark next month. If Tesla was going to start diverting large numbers of deliveries outside the U.S., that would already be happening.

At this point it’s nothing but wishful thinking to believe Tesla won’t cross the 200,000 milestone in Q2.

Assaf

Wow, looking at April’s cumulative tally posted on this site, I think you’re right. They should have shipped more S/X abroad in May. Now they’re close to 194k. There’s almost no way they can stay under 6k across the 3 models in the US in June. It will be supreme lack of consideration if they cross 200k in late June, essentially fining ~50k of their customers by $3750 each.
Although I must admit, that extended Memorial Day shutdown was strategically timed 🙂 Well, in a few weeks we’ll know.

David Hrivnak

They have already started to divert large numbers of Model 3 cars to Canada.

TJKR

My guess is they need to divert about 5K Model 3’s to July to keep under 200K. It can easily be done… move 3-4K to Canada and delay the rest till first week of July. They’ll not do this with Model S and X and will sell as many as possible. Also, it looks as though Q2 will not be profitable but if they sell as many Model 3 as possible and if they hit 5K a week, Q3 will be very profitable.. another reason to push it to Q3. This is probably the epic short burn Elon is talking about.

Zach

Dude they are sending thousand to Canada.

BroncoBet

Yeah,like two, that’s how many thousands of 3’s they sold in Canada.

Robert Weekley

Or not! 199,995 = OK for June, but 200,001 = Not OK! It would cost US buyers 3 extra months of Full Tax Credit if they popped over the 200,000 mark in sales / deliveries before July 1st. I am, for some reason, thinking Elon will quietly announce a July 4th Independence Day Party, for the 200,000th Delivery! Independence from Liquid Fuels & ICE, for 200,000 Americans! Then slow European & Canadian Sales for the Model S & X, while they move as many as needed, along with the Model 3, to US buyers, to the end of 2018! Less shipping costs, also could be beneficial to Tesla Profitability for those 2 Quarters!

Dr. Miguelito Loveless

They are already playing games with the tax credit, which is why all of those M3s went to Canada where there don’t count against the 200K cap. If Tesla breaks 200K before July 1, then the $7500 credit drops 50% on October 1. Deliver car #200,000 on July 1, and the tax credit survives until December 31.

A lot of people will be mad if they don’t get the full credit.

TL

The truth!

HTSS

@Dave – “Tesla is not going to play any games with the Tax credit”

“According to Automotive News, Tesla could hit that number on the first day of a quarter and then have a few months to pump out as many cars as possible–each eligible for the full $7,500 credit.

Asked by a Twitter user whether this move was on the table, Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested he would potentially employ it.

@elonmusk AWESOME! Planning on delivering up to vehicle 199,999 and then waiting until the next 2 quarters to deliver the rest?

@RyanCasburn We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty.”

Source: http://time.com/money/4288537/tesla-tax-credit-loophole/

Rob R

Dave, have you seen the vast ranks of Model 3 sitting in lots in Canada awaiting delivery. Grimes notwithstanding, Elon is not devoting such resources to Canada because he likes Canadians, this is a Tax Credit strategy. Sales in June will be manipulated to keep the total to 199,999, then on 1 July Tesla will hit the gas harder than 0-60 in 1.9 in the US.

Zach

no sorry June will be tiny for the US. July will fly. They want to reward as many Americans as they can with 7500 tax break for the rest of the calendar year.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla always maximizes deliveries in the last month in a quarter, and that includes June. We can be confident that Tesla’s sales next month will be appreciably higher than this month, for all three models.

Anyone who still thinks that Tesla will cut back on U.S. sales to delay crossing the 200,000 threshold, has not been paying attention. Crossing that milestone will happen next month, without question.

EVShopper

About 30 days until we find out.

Lawrence

I’ve been through the Tesla delivery process. They only have so many appointment slots per day per location to deliver all Tesla. It’s a 1 hour appointment per car with up to 10 stalls per hour.
Considering that S/X deliveries are high at the end of each quarter, the few weeks delay in Model 3 deliveries are likely because they need to delivery S/X’s. But people don’t want to hear that.

Pushmi-Pullyu

You touch on an important point, but unfortunately you didn’t follow through with it. It was pointed out in a private comment to me that if Tesla allowed thousands of TM3’s to pile up on lots in June, then they would have to catch up on all those deliveries in July. That would be, to say the least, problematic. Tesla’s delivery system is already overstretched in certain regions, and doesn’t have much slack in others.

Almost certainly not gonna happen, for several reasons.

Lawrence

Not the point that I was going for. My point was in response to your point about Tesla intentionally delaying all deliveries to avoid crossing the cumulative 200,000 US sales this quarter. People are basing this off of the notice sent by Tesla that deliveries of Model 3 are delayed due to unprecedented demand, but they extrapolated that to be some sort of cryptic code to mean that they are going to halt deliveries until July 1.

Ryan

I have a TM3 being delivered today. While making my delivery appointment, my Tesla advisor offered to have the car delivered to my house. She said home delivery was a pilot program that they were trying out. So, delivery appointment slots won’t be a constraint soon.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla has been doing home deliveries from the start, so I don’t know why she would have said it’s a “pilot program”. It’s true that Tesla wanted to move away from individual deliveries for the TM3, and in fact Tesla now has Delivery Centers in California specifically so those can be handled outside their network of stores and service centers. But obviously group deliveries are not going to work for the TM3 buyer in every case.

I suspect some confusion crept in somewhere along the line in your communication with the Tesla rep.

Robert Weekley

Paying attention, for sure! But at no time in thier past has a US delivery quantity been a potential long term cost for customers, like this next step! We have no idea how many Model 3’s could be loaded onto Trains, for those people whose June Delivery has already been pushed back to July! They would ultimately simply report a large number if them as “In Transit” to customers! Since, from the time of manufacturing, up until the buyers “Take Delivery”, these cars are reported as “In Transit”, any number of techniques could be deployed to keep an extra 5,000 or 10,000 or even more, in this status: shipping to China a Boat Load in late May, and in Late June, for one! Filling a couple Trains with Model 3’s both for US & Canadian Customers, another! Renting large Facilities for a delivery surge, has been already done in Canada, before year end last year, and now again, for Model 3 deliveries! Same could be done for July Sales, in the USA! Of course, it would show as more fuel for shorters, and “Tesla is Broke” conversations, but July numbers in the US could then just blow the top!

menorman

Storing them on trains could be a great and cheap way to get it done. especially compared to stashing them at airports.

kbm3

Tesla has already stated they are going away from that as it strains the delivery system too much,

floydboy

Correct.

TL

Dream on … Tesla delivered over 9,200 vehicles in the US in May. They will hit the 200,000 limit in June if they deliver 7,000 cars in the final month of the quarter. comment image

Anti-Lord Kelvin

This red curve starting far after big players like the mighty GM and Toyota (without forgetting Nissan) and then outpacing faster and faster one by one every other players…No wonders why so many would love to see Tesla failed…

Ryan

Keep in mind that they have a plant shutdown planned for June. I’m not saying they won’t cross over the 200k limit, but we’ll have to see.

Doggydogworld

They said two shutdowns, 10 days total in 12. Already shut down in April and May, so June is not scheduled unless something changed.

David Hrivnak

I predict June will be down as Tesla can only sell 7,000 cars in June to keep from crossing the 200,000 threshold. But I bet July will will a steller month with over 20,000 sold.

William L

I can’t believe no one ask Elon about when will Tesla pass 200k car sold in US during the shareholder meeting yesterday.

dmm1240

I expect June to be down a little. Not to worry. Tesla is bumping up against the 200k tax credit limit and will not ship too many to customers to avoid crossing the limit. Production will be outstanding. June deliveries? Meh. July? Best month Tesla will ever have had for deliveries in the U.S. and worldwide. Then it’s off to the races.

Robert Weekley

So long as th TM 3, S, & X in June are high enough to reach 199,990, but not go over 199,999 and blow the 200,000 check point!

Bul_gar

At the end of june will be many Models 3 in transit waiting for 200k to pass in July

CARLOS

i predict 11,500

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

IMHO, June will be less but July will break the record again.

xcat

And yet there are more 2017 Bolts still sitting on lots than 2018’s…

Sustainable2020

Really?? I did just read in GCR that GM is halting/ has halted 2018 bolt production and will begin 2019 bolts soon. I guesss they should wait some weeks, months if what u r saying is true.

Viking79

Maybe a sign they are gearing up their other EV for that line (the CUV EV supposed to launch before the end of the year).

Nix

The last time they halted the line it was to reduce the number of ICE cars they were building on the same line, and increase the number of Bolts. (Something like a Sonic? I never can remember. Bro1999 will know).

Tom

Yes Sonic.

Lawrence

I did a query on 2017 Chevy Bolts available on dealer lots and the answer was: “xcat is full of sh@t”

Robert Weekley

Is either one better than the other, in features, equipment, or price?

John

Whaaat??? bro1999 giving a little love to Tesla?? (I’m proud of you, bro..)

Pushmi-Pullyu

He’d better sit down, rest awhile, and take a stress tab after that strain! 😉

ffbj

Oops, I almost spit up my lunch. bro1999 with a positive comment on Tesla. Oh well, I make positive comments on the Bolt from time to time. Hey look at all those likes.
Probably happy ’cause GM went up. Take some off the table, and get yourself a silk hat.

Nix

Thanks for the positive post. It is appreciated. +1

+1. We’re all on the same team here. Sometimes it’s hard though with all the battles. Thanks!

Chris O

And next month another record and the month after that another record and…..Well the pattern is obvious and predictable: Model 3 is in the lead and will no doubt remain in the lead with an ever widening margin for a very long time to come.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. The “Tesla sold more than any other EV maker” headline is gonna get pretty worn-out if IEVs repeats it every month!

I don’t see any EV challenging the TM3 for the lead outside China until at least 2020, and perhaps longer than that.

What happens to PEV (Plug-in EV) sales in China is largely unrelated to what’s happening in the rest of the world, and is largely dependent on the whims of whatever incentives or roadblocks the Chinese central government chooses to impose, to help or hinder PEV sales.

Robert Weekley

And, with Tesla already dropping the Tarrif induced Charges on their cars in China, it seems to reason that sales and deliveries there are being pushed up, and an extra Boat Load for China could be one lever Tesla uses to handle the need / desire to not exceed the 200,000 sales / deliveries in the US before July 1st, 2018!

scott

for some perspective, in May 2011 (the oldest InsideEvs chart), only 1600 plugins sold in the entire month. 7 years later we have 6250 from one model, and 24K total. Growth of 15X in 7 years.

If that continues May 2025 would see ~350,000 sales.

Dave

That is a great target to go for… I think it could be reachable.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Hopefully that will prove to be a huge underestimate. At some point, the “S” curve of a disruptive tech revolution is going to kick in. I hope we’ll start seeing that in 2020, if not before. Auto makers have announced many plans for PEV production starting in 2020.

Sustainable2020

True but more models does not necessarily mean more numbers…especially when it comes to bevs. I’m convinced now that all other bev builders besides Tesla are giving us ON,Y compliance cars. Meaning that they are only designing them/improving them as much as needed and building enough of them to comply with carb and other govt regs.
The evidence is clear when you look at the better “new” but smoothed over first gen leaf. A lack of promotion and availability nationwide of the bolt. 500E practically exactly the same for this entire decade cause fca has acquired so many zev credits they don’t need to sell many bevs for the next few years.
Every auto manufacturer sans Tesla has limited their efforts for bevs significantly in one capacity or another regarding bevs. So I will only lease bevs for some years to come until a truly worthy, affordable bev is ready to be bought. Perhaps a long range model Y in 2022 will fit the bill.

Robert Weekley

I would think that if there are no chemistry or battery pack changes from current Model 3, to / for the Model Y, a LR Model Y should be 285-300 Miles Range. What say you?

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…more models does not necessarily mean more numbers…

Mathematically that’s true, but experience and common sense say that if more models are available for car buyers to choose from in a given category, then they will buy more. And I’m pretty sure not all of those new PEV models going on sale in 2020 will be mere compliance cars.

Pinewold

Tesla alone will easily exceed 350k. Even adding 30k per brand (compliance level sales) another 300k is doable since Audi, VW, bmw, Mercedes, Porsche, Chevy, Nissan, Renault, Volvo, Kia and Hyundai will all have cars.

A million is a more realistic number for 2025.

Ziv

Great number for the 3. Makes staying under 200k after next months sales problematic, but having too many sales is a problem all the other EV makers only aspire to…

Dave

Tesla will not stay under 200K in Q2, they will blow past it by 6K+ is my prediction. I predict June will see 10K Model 3 deliveries. and healthy S and X USA deliveries.

Rebel44

IMO – Tesla will try to stay just under 200K by assigning June production to customers in Canada and east coast + if necessary store a few thousand cars in order to deliver them in July.

Dave

Nope… Not a chance they are going to go through all that trouble to delay, they need the revenue for the qtr, they will deliver every car they can…

Also they pushed USA S and X orders hard for the last 6 weeks, thats why I predict S and X will have a healthy June as well..

Nix

Tesla has no need for the revenue in the last 2 weeks of Q2 vs the 1st week of Q3. They simply aren’t that tight on cashflow. That delay would be meaningless financially.

Tesla can also simply add a section reporting first week of July sales into their 8K where they report Q2/H1 and pacify any trolls left wringing their hands over “ONLY” record US EV sales numbers never seen before by any company.

Pushmi-Pullyu

There simply are not that many potential customers in Canada. And Tesla is not going to give up that much potential income by letting thousands of cars sit around on outdoor lots.

If Tesla planned to delay crossing the 200,000 milestone to the 3rd quarter, then they would already have upgraded their European “final assembly” plant to handle the TM3, so they could divert sales there. Since Tesla hasn’t done that, and with rapidly increasing TM3 production, it’s now quite clear that Tesla will cross the 200,000 milestone next month.

Any other conclusion is ignoring the evidence, and ignoring it pretty hard.

scott franco

Right. They would lose more money trying to slow/outship production than they would potentially gain. Tesla is not getting the break, its buyers are. They care about their bottom line, and they should.

pjwood1

Tesla has deducted the tax-credit, verbatim, from its trade quotes in the past. The less net cost to customers, the more willing they are to let their Teslas go back to CPO more cheaply, at lower cost to Tesla. The company has a stake in when the credit goes away.

Peter S

The buyers get the credit, but when it starts to phase out it may change their math on buying the TM3. Tesla will still have more demand than supply, but some buyers who were counting on the full credit may decide not to get AP or FSD. Since the contribution margin on both is basically 100% it would benefit Tesla’s bottom line to delay the 200k delivery to Q3. This also benefits their Q3 bottom line by shifting gross margin from Q2 (when a loss is expected) to Q3 (when they’ve promised a net profit).

Tesla seems to be a company that will generally play the long game (e.g. building the supercharger network, building the gigafactory, increasing Fremont automation, and developing the Model 3). I don’t think they would stockpile an entire month’s worth of production, but they may: (1) sell everything they can outside the US in June, (2) schedule month end production for customers on the East Coast (so it arrives for a July delivery), (3) deploy additional TM3s for display in stores/galleries, and (4) maybe stockpile a few days of production for delivery in early July.

Bul_gar

How many stores Tesla has in Usa?

Nix

About 120.

Robert Weekley

Or just not knowing the sales / delivery numbers, as intimately as Tesla does, nor their customer satisfaction goals vs revenue goals!

TJKR

All evidence points to them pushing 200K to Q3. The last report there was a 1000 Model 3’s in the Toronto area. Also, at current production rates, Tesla will not record a profit for Q2 but if they push off till July and hit 6K a month, Q3 may be profitable. Pushing 200K to Q3 will not be that hard to do at this point… just shift most of the Model 3 deliveries to July and to Canada.

scott

I think so too. They are so close, and why would they be shipping to canada now if not for this. Q2 will be another big loss. Q3 will look great if many 1000s of deliverables delayed from Q2. maybe that is why elon is so confident of his “short burn of the century”

TJKR

At 6K a week, that is potentially 72,000 people that would get $7,500 rebate versus $3,750 if they just simply push 200K to July. It’s money in the bank for both Tesla and it’s customers! Tesla will be seriously screwing customers over if they don’t do this.

darelldd

Same evidence that I’m seeing. I live less than 100 miles from the factory, and all the folks around here who’ve ordered were all given the message “sorry… We won’t deliver you car until July.” Nobody in the US that I know of who’s ordered “recently” has been told the car would come before July. In the meantime, Canada is suddenly awash in deliveries.

It would be silly for Tesla to lose out on a month or more of full tax credit by crossing the line before July 1. It is a sad state of affairs that Tesla’s success is being hindered by this short-sighted approach to subsidizing the sales. But they have to play the game.

Dave

Wrong… Tesla has been pushing USA June deliveries of S and X hard, and Canada cannot absorb the Model 3 in large enough numbers to hold off the sales. Tesla will cross the 200K in June…

xcat

S&X sales will not be pushed. They are more profitable than the 3. However makes sense for Tesla to push the 3 if a matter of a couple weeks can provide 3 extra months of full tax credit. Why else would they be diverting from their original plan to prioritize US sales prior to moving to other countries?

Dave

I think Tesla ran into trouble getting people to configure the current configuration at the rate needed to keep the assembly lines flowing, hence opening Canada. So far Canada has about 500 Model 3’s on the ground, and maybe 1-2K more this month, but if you assume that Tesla has delivered about 20K Model 3’s, so far, and built about 28K, there is a delta of 8K that are somewhere? Not to mention production is increasing dramatically per guidance from Tesla. I assume June Week 1 production will be delivered before the end of the QTR, and that should be around 2500 more Model 3’s in the system.

S and X have been pushed very hard the last month, I am on the email list, and I have been getting slammed with emails for June deliveries for the last 6 weeks, all went silent yesterday.

My estimate for June USA deliveries Model 3 10K Model S 3400+ Model X 3K, that puts Tesla about 6-7K over the 200K.

Tech01x

It seems that Tesla is currently delivering 200 cars a day in Toronto, plus another mass delivery event in Vancouver. Likely somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 deliveries to Canada and the final number depends on logistics. Tesla has invited something like 85-90% of Canadian reservation holders and due to the tax credit uncertainty, many have opted to configure for RWD vehicles.

Pushmi-Pullyu

That can’t possibly be correct. For Tesla to have invited 85% or more of reservation holders would mean that almost none of them are waiting for the Standard Range TM3 or other lower trim levels that are currently unavailable.

Your claim for 5,000-10,000 deliveries in Canada, over the space of only 2-3 months, is equally unbelievable.

Nix

Ontario EV tax credit of $14,000 is expected to be killed after the upcoming election. $14,000 is substantial motivation to change buying preferences and modify purchasing decisions.

ffbj

My view coincides with yours and always has on this question. I thought it too much of no brainer that they would delay to extend the credit that it was simply a foregone conclusion.
As evidence mounted it seemed to be the case, with deliveries deferred to Canada, as they are close by.

Recently Model 3 owners club showed a number of lots chock full of 3’s, and said it’s happening all over Canada.
So they are pushing the metal up North to get in under the 200k deliveries in the U.S.. They can add, and subtract, seems elementary. I mean even Watson, could figure it out.

ffbj

In addition a number went to China as evidenced by the plug change specific to the Chinese markets. Certainly enough to get in under the number prior to July. Again I thought all this was well known, and settled, but it seems some don’t have access to certain evidence.

Robert Weekley

Plus, it makes the Long Range price bump, free or almost free!

Tech01x

Teslike’s spreadsheet indicates roughly little change from the take rate on RWD versus deferral. At roughly 11:1 ratio of US to Canada reservations, maybe some 22.5k reservations in Canada. Assume 85% have been invited (19k) and 50% take the RWD. That’s almost 10k.

Tesla has rented out the International Center in Toronto and they have said they are aiming for 200 deliveries a day for at least a couple of weeks. The guess as a bit over 3,000 alone from that one delivery location. Vancouver is supposed to also get a mass delivery arrangement and existing delivery locations are also stocked with Model 3 deliveries. It isn’t over the course of 2-3 months… it’s over about 5 weeks. Very similar to the way they have done deliveries in Norway.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I said:

“That can’t possibly be correct. For Tesla to have invited 85% or more of reservation holders would mean that almost none of them are waiting for the Standard Range TM3 or other lower trim levels that are currently unavailable.”

Sorry, I wasn’t thinking clearly; that’s completely wrong on my part. 🙁 Just inviting those with reservations to convert to orders, doesn’t mean all those people will do so. Many (both Americans and Canadians) are waiting for the Standard Range (short range) Model 3, or other lower trim versions of the car.

Robert Weekley

Plus, just looking at the Canadian Model 3 page, shows very quick Model 3 Delivery times now, for New Reservations!

Lawrence

I see no different between the estimated in the Canadian wait time vs the US

William

That is an interesting curious coincidence.
Oh Canada!

Pushmi-Pullyu

A very quick delivery turnaround means they don’t have many deliveries to make in the region, the exact opposite of what you’re claiming. If Tesla was trying to deliver thousands of TM3s all in Ontario over the next few weeks to get in under the Province’s deadline, then delivery schedules would be very solidly filled, with no room for new orders.

I have no doubt that Tesla has expanded the delivery schedule for Ontario, but it’s simply not credible to think that there are enough orders/ deliveries for that one Province to make a substantial difference in the date that Tesla will cross the 200,000 threshold.

As I said, 5000-10,000 over the space of a few weeks simply isn’t credible. Tesla isn’t set up to ship that many cars to one region of Canada, nor do they have enough reps in the region to handle that many deliveries in such a short time.

Anyway, four weeks from now we can quit arguing about it. 😉

Pushmi-Pullyu

On the nose, Dave. Tesla isn’t selling the Model 3 in Canada to delay passing the 200,000 milestone to Q3; Tesla is selling the TM3 there to maximize the number of sales of currently available trim levels without sending TM3’s literally overseas.

A few hundred TM3’s sold in Canada isn’t going to delay passing the milestone by a month (and by a quarter); that’s just wishful thinking by those who really, really want to get that full $7500 Federal tax credit.

Nix

If it were just about maximizing top trim levels, they could have simply opened up deliveries in the US for US reservation holders to finalize their orders.

Instead Tesla has done exactly the opposite. Instead of opening up more US reservation holders to finalize their orders, they have sent emails to people in the US who HAVE ALREADY finalized their top trim level orders and told them they have to wait until July for delivery.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well, one of us is going to have to eat crow on this one, Nix. We’ll have to wait and see who it is.

Anti-Lord Kelvin

You could be right if it was, effectively, “a few hundred TM3’s sold in Canada” for all June month. Now, it seams that it is fact an hundred TM3’s sold…every day there! And a month have a lot of days…

Niccii

You just keep saying the same thing. There’s a chance it ends up happening, but posted delay letters from Tesla evidence of Canada model threes being pushed up there and you keep saying the same thing it’s a very likely possibility that they are holding them back.

Vexar

I think that’s what they are doing, too. At their current production rate, they are supposed to be making a profit off the long-range configurations, and when they hit the 5,000 per week rate, they are also supposed to be making money off the $35k model. That said, I have recently learned that Tesla of Eden Prairie, MN has obtained a separate parking lot for intake of deliveries and are opening a second service center in the metro. Minnesota is only seeing between 1 and 2% of these US figures for the Model III per month, but I can’t imagine how big it has gotten in more popular states.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Big enough that at least in California, Tesla has opened specialized Delivery Centers to do nothing but handle the actual sales/delivery of their cars. Expect to see more of those in large cities nationwide.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-opens-delivery-center-marina-del-rey-model-3/

TNT

Picking mine up this afternoon.

TJKR

6250 is still underwhelming. Wake me up when Tesla delivers 25,000 Model 3’s a month for 3 months in a row.

Dave

Come on, it is way under guidance, but a step in the right direction for sure…

Tech01x

Guidance is about production, not deliveries.

Terawatt

So what? Deliveries might lag a little, but not very much, and less the higher the volume. Virtually every car produced is after all going to be delivered.

SansIce

Ha Ha -some people are never happy. As a point of reference, Tesla sold more Model 3s in one month than BMW 3 series sold in one month in both 2017 and 2018 so far – exact same demographic but EV vs ICE – that is huge- the world is changing and quickly my friends.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/bmw-3-series/

James

Yeah BMW is toast, oh wait BMW Group U.S. sales increase 3.4 percent in May 2018 and 3.3 this year, how is that possible?

Nix

SUV’s.

Dave

dont forget BMW 3 series is in the last year of production, new model coming soon, that should revive sales…

Priusmaniac

It could also only just slightly reduce the decrease rate.
Who wants an ICE car if you can get a better ev car for the same price?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla bashers are always moving the goalposts. When Tesla delivers 25,000 a month, they’ll whine it’s not 50,000 or 100,000 a month. If and when Tesla starts delivering as many a month as the Ford Motor Co., they will whine it’s not as many as GM or Toyota.

arne-nl

Haha, sour grapes….

Nix

Tesla has at least six levers to pull to control US sales. Tesla has been confirmed to have ALREADY started pulling many of these levers. Alone, no single lever is enough, but all 6 levers pulled at the same time might be enough:

1) Divert Model 3 US sales to Canada (confirmed)
2) Divert Model S/X US sales to global markets, including new markets (confirmed)
3) Divert Model 3 production cars to showrooms (confirmed) and demo cars.
4) Delay delivery until July for US reservations already converted to orders (confirmed)
5) Schedule factory shutdowns to update the line prior to the end of Q2 (confirmed)
6) Put a sales hold/embargo on the last few weeks of June production an extra 1 to 15 days at service centers, delivery centers, galleries, factory backlots, etc. This is nothing for the automotive industry. Car makers and dealers regularly have holding lots they store cars for much longer than that.

Dave

Its an interesting theory, but I think it will prove to be wrong. Tesla has been pushing S and X for June deliveries hard the last 6 weeks (I have a ton of emails from them), and there are 8-10k Model 3’s floating around in Limbo right now, not going to be able to delay all of that. We will know in 30 days… but I expect this to be a huge June and wall street wants to see quarterly numbers, no gaming the tax system.

Nix

The better long-term Wall Street play would be to group as many sales as possible in Q3 for a HUGE market move into profitability in Q3 which would trigger the 4th short squeeze, just in time for Tesla to raise funding for Model Y/Roadster/Semi factories and production. All paid for out of the pockets of shorters who have to scramble to cover their short positions by running up the price of TSLA shares.

Seems like you are thinking way too linearly and short term. Tesla has never operated that way. Go back and read up on the history of the last Q3 where Tesla showed profit, and how they jammed everything they could into one quarter.

Dave

The last Q3 Tesla showed profit it was by maximizing sales, and cutting all cost, and putting off CapEx to the next qtr which showed a huge loss…. This is called “Engineering a profit” but is not real, and wall street will not fall for that one again…

ffbj

There is a method to the madness alright, and once they have all the levers in hand and lighting strikes they can certainly say it’s alive.
I think the press has egg on its face as do the shorts, and many detractors, who just jumped on the anti-Tesla bandwagon. At every stumble and misstep it has been, it’s all over for this upstart company.
The much ballyhooed “Tesla Killers” never showed. The crushing of Tesla by legacy auto has failed to materialize. CR retracted their not recommended rating, and reversed it. Positive reviews the Model 3 being the best car available continue to proliferate from a variety of sources.
It’s all starting looks like rainbows & unicorns for Tesla, and yes I have information that the RU fountain is to be reopened.
Musk actually warned shorts recently, though then he went on his media rant, which to large extent was correct in regard to the old media, but momentarily hurt the stock. Despite the emphasis of the press on the negative and the wailing of the shorts, David has slain Goliath, and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Not so long ago, CR gave a “dis-recommended” review for the Model S because Tesla had delayed an OTA update for the Mark II hardware ABS system. Then as now, very quickly after CS issued its downgrade, Tesla rushed out the corresponding OTA update, and CS responded by re-recommending the Model S.

The turnaround on all that was quicker this time with the Model 3, but other than that it’s the same pattern.

I suppose that is good for Tesla car owners, but from here it sure looks like CR is repeatedly flip-flopping on its recommendations of THE EXACT SAME CAR just so they can have an excuse to run another Tesla-related article.

BenG

You seem to miss the point where CR pointed out a real flaw, and Tesla fixed it, hence NOT THE EXACT SAME CAR.

Seems to me that CR has done exactly what they are supposed to be doing: providing information to and advocating for consumers. You are aware they are a non-profit?

For someone who posts incessantly in comments on story after story about minor Tesla related issues on this site, I don’t see how you can begrudge CR writing a story or two about them, lol.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m sorry, but are you actually trying to argue that Tesla sending out an OTA update makes it a different car?

Seriously, is that what you’re arguing? If so… well, I doubt you’ll find many people who will agree.

BenG

Are you seriously arguing that the Model 3 with a substantial braking algorithm flaw that made it brake as badly as a full-sized pickup truck IS THE EXACT SAME CAR as an updated Model 3 that brakes much better? One is worth criticizing the braking on and withholding recommendation over it, the other is not, end of story.

So with the problematic braking algorithm a single hard stop caused the car to brake worse than any other car in it’s class. Do you think CR should discover that fact and RECOMMEND the car to it’s readers? Absurd.

Robert Weekley

They could already be well on their way to reducing, if not yet eliminating, their short fall in revenue, for Q2, to bring losses down below $500 Million, maybe even below $400 Million. Plus, to be Profitable in Q3, does not specifically mean they even have to “Approach” profitability, in Q2! They could still be “in deep” negative territory in Q2, due to equipment additions, GF1 build prep, Fremont expansion and building, higher per unit costs still on Model 3, etc.

niccii

Oh Elon is showing a big big big preference to satisfying Wall Street

xcat

7) Instead of 1 on 1 time for each M3 delivery, practice group deliveries of up to 6 M3’s per hour per Delivery Specialist. This has been confirmed in WA where the sales tax exemption expired on 5/31 and moving as much inventory in that state as possible prior to that deadline.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I wonder how many deliveries at a time Tesla handles at its Delivery Centers? 20? 30? Possibly even more? But Tesla would have more than one rep handling a group that large; probably at least 2 or 3 reps: One main speaker and 1 or 2 assistants, would be my guess. Some one-on-one time will have to be spent completing paperwork, answering individual questions, and physically handing over the cars.

Pushmi-Pullyu

We’ll see. WadeTyhon has been predicting for months that Tesla isn’t going to slow the pace at all, and will cross the 200,000 threshold this quarter. I think I read in another comment that Tesla is now less than 5000 (estimated) deliveries away from crossing the threshold?

Tesla would literally have to stockpile thousands of TM3s on outdoor lots to delay crossing the 200,000 milestone until Q3. Maybe you see that happening, Nix, but I don’t.

Nix

You mean parked in storage like these pictures?

comment image

comment image?w=700

Tesla has 200 locations across the US, plus two factories and a lot they rented in Oakland. Finding room for just 25 cars on average at or near each of these sites is over 5,000 cars.

Are you suggesting it is impossible for Tesla to store that number of cars for a few weeks, despite the reality that storing 5,000 cars would be a drop in the bucket compared how many other car makers store every day of the year globally, day after day after day?

Pushmi-Pullyu

No, I’m not suggesting (or claiming) that it’s “impossible”. I’m claiming that all the evidence points to the increasingly certain probability that Tesla is not going to do that.

All the arguments I see from your side of the debate boil down to “It would be better if Tesla would do it this way.” That’s certainly true, in a perfect world.

But we don’t live in that world. From my perspective at least, not a one of you on the other side of the debate is asking is whether or not Tesla has enough slack in their delivery system to be able to do what you’re claiming they will do!

It’s not a question of what Tesla wants to do, but what they are able to do.

And what in the world does posting a picture of huge wodges of cars sitting at a port waiting for shipment have to do with Model 3 deliveries? Correct me if I’m wrong, but Tesla isn’t shipping a single Model 3 by water!

Robert Weekley

The current 310 mile / 499 Km Long Range Model 3, will suit 1,000’s of Canadian Buyers! Trains Delivering Model 3’s to US & Canadian buyers can hold quite a lot of “In Transit” production, too! Plus Trucks, Delivery Lots, which seem to becoming more in number, too!

scott franco

You missed: 7. Launch cars into outer space.

Nix

LOL!! (and confirmed, with live video too!!!)

ffbj

Zing!

Pushmi-Pullyu

It certainly is an exciting time for Tesla fans. Just achieving the highest monthly U.S. sales total isn’t any surprise. That was inevitable when we found out there were some 455,000 paid reservations for the car!

What I’m looking towards now, and this may or may not happen, is for a month in which the Model 3 outsells all other EVs in the U.S., combined!

Go Tesla!

William

It would be helpful get the exact data on the monthly sales split, between BMW i3, and its i3REx variant, to exactly establish when the “Model 3 outsells all other EVs in the U.S., combined!”

The sales month, in which Tesla is able to outsell all other pure BEVs combined, just in the U.S., will be a Ginormous victory for the Tesla brand, if and when they can finally pull it off!

BMW won’t disclose it.

William

Thanks, we will have to come up with some sort of approximation.

Nix

I wonder if CARB documents BMW’s BEVx ZEV credits? That would give a separate REX count.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“It would be helpful get the exact data on the monthly sales split, between BMW i3, and its i3REx variant, to exactly establish when the ‘Model 3 outsells all other EVs in the U.S., combined!’ ”

I guess I should have specified PEVs (Plug-in EVs) rather than “EVs”, to make it clear that I consider PHEVs to be EVs just as much as BEVs.

Robert Weekley

Are we not able to already find some month that this number of Model 3 sales / deliveries in the USA outsells All Other EV’s, since 2010?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m pretty sure sales of 6250 would easily outsell any month of all PEV sales in the entire world (with the possible exception of China) before December 2010, if you want to do an anachronistic (but rather meaningless) comparison. 🙂

EVShopper

Congrats Tesla!

Tesla8

Tesla employees will be able to take vacations in June because next quarter will be crazy!

MTN Ranger

My prediction of a huge month was spot on.

Ron M

How many more Teslas need to be sold in order to reach 200,000. It can’t be more than a few thousand.

Terawatt

Interesting.

How does it fare against its declared competitors, BMW 3-series and Audi A4? I do mean the total Model 3 volume vs the total volume of 3-series and A4, all variants, not a single variant out of twenty or whatever it is they offer…

Nix

6,250/mo is the equivalent of 75,000/yr, which is pretty high for a midsize entry level luxury car, and actually puts it in the top 25% of ALL cars/trucks sold in the US. Here are the 2017 and 2016 yearly sales totals (YTD column in link):

Model ———————- 2017 —– 2016
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 77,447 77,167
BMW 3-Series 59,449 70,458
BMW 4-Series 39,634 35,763
Lexus ES 51,398 58,299
Lexus IS 26,482 37,289
Mercedes-Benz E / CLS-Class 51,312 50,896
Infiniti Q50 40,739 44,007
BMW 5-Series 40,658 32,408
Audi A4 37,674 36,987
Audi A5 21,301 8,354
Acura TLX 34,846 37,153
Lexus IS 26,482 37,289
Volvo S60 16,825 20,921
Audi A6 16,304 18,686

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/01/december-2017-year-end-u-s-vehicle-sales-rankings-top-296-best-selling-vehicles-in-america-every-vehicle-ranked/

ffbj
If you know of auto-line, you might also know that they have little respect for Tesla. Doing them no service and to a person continually dismissing them. So I finally gave them a piece of my mind, with a mild rant, presented below with response: It’s over and you guys don’t have a clue. Tesla and those that follow in their wake will take over the auto industry which, even you have figured out, is in decline. Regarding Tesla you simply haven’t a clue. You chortle and laugh at their mistakes but don’t understand that they can make them and recover from them before the boys in Detroit have finished the front nine. Your guests are all like 80 living a past reality, that has some reference to current time, but only as a shadow of the past. You guys didn’t see any of this coming, what a joke. The 15% will probably be exceeded in CA, as Model 3 will be in full production by then, and there will be a number of decent alternatives. Still, I admit I watch since you know a lot about the history of the automotive industry, and soon, in my view, you will… Read more »
SansIce

So many are cheering for Tesla to fail and go bankrupt. I honestly don’t get it unless they have a lot to lose because they are dug into ICE and all of the associated support businesses. I have listened to some car radio shows where they are talking about new cars and don’t mention anything having to do with BEV or even Hybrid models – It is so aggravating!

Ron M

That idiot Trump is telling Rick Perry to force utilities to buy there power from Coal and Nuclear plants first because there needed for grid stability and national defense and without this bailout coal and nuclear plants will need to close because they can’t compete on prices with Natural Gas and Renewable Energy.
So everyone will now have to pay more for there electricity because coal can’t compete. This is Trumps idea of MAGA line the pockets of the Murray and Koch’s fossil fuel supporters.
I can’t see how this is legal but there’s so much of what Trump does that doesn’t seem legal and yet he does it with abandonment.

pjwood1

Rather than understanding just how bad the over-reach is, I think many delight in how simple Trump is. It can be a comfy refuge, from tiresome things like civics.

I get it. You have to go back to the 80’s, for the last time DOE tried dictating to the FERC (Rick Perry’s NOPR). And, then, there’s using World War II presidential powers, just because you dig coal.

esto perpetua

Stupid and blatant move by Trump but no more so than Obama’s 2009 move to rob the shareholders of GM and (especially) Chrysler and deliver huge chunks of the companies to the Unions. No lefties complained about that and the Media was, as usually, complicit.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, how terrible for GM shareholders that the Obama administration didn’t just sit around and let GM go bankrupt.
/s

Of course, the bailout process actually started during the end of the Bush Jr. administration, but heaven forbid that anyone should point out “inconvenient” facts after a completely fact-free right-wingnut rant… right?
🙄

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/12/09/gm-bailout-timeline/3929953/

Doggydogworld

Obama administration did not rob the shareholders, they were done for no matter how it happened. They did rob bondholders, though, egregiously favoring UAW/IBEW claims even in cases where bankruptcy law clearly puts them equall to or even behind lender’s claims.

Nix

Not a single penny went to any union. It all went into the VEBA health care and retiree benefits program for GM employees. The unions have zero access to those funds, they are a substitute for company health insurance benefits they had contractually agreed to.

The only thing it has to do with the Union is that they agreed in negotiations well before the bankruptcy that they would let GM off the hook for providing health care coverage and retiree benefits if GM funded the VEBA. It is really no different than GM paying into health care premiums, but without the overhead of an insurance company making profits cutting into benefits.

The funny thing is that people like you think that speculators should have been ahead of the line to benefit from the US Govt bailing out GM, instead of retirees who had employment contracts guaranteeing that health care coverage the GM stocks funded. This is what is wrong with Wall Street. If Wall Street wanted the benefits of the bailout instead of the American people, Wall Street should have paid for the bailouts.

ffbj

Alex of E for Electric gives insidevs some love, in this episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDmxwuNjRWo
They have street cred.

MDEV

I’m sorry for all the Russian trolls and short stock people in this forum, and only is getting better from here.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m not sorry at all. Ah, schadenfreude! 😀

floydboy

Third quarter gonna be a baaaaddd motherf…..(Hush yo mouth!)
I’m just talkin’ bout third quarter!

SJC

Models S,X and 3 in quantity from one factory, impressive.

ZEOG

Great news hopefully they can keep expanding those numbers for all models and other manufacturers can join in too. I’ll be glad when the last gas motor is put to rest and melted down.

Doggydogworld

You plan on living a long time!

Progressive from Wisconsin

Slow but sure wins the race. Tesla has always promised high, and often missed, but in the end it comes through. The latest news that its cost of production is around $28,000 per model 3 shows that it can be profitable even at $35,000 per unit. The surprise that they have the lowest cost battery on the market is a plus. When they get to 10,000 units per month, you will see the $35,000 base model being offered. Then there is the model Y and the redesigned Roadster and the Semi Truck. Only the sky is the limit. And they will be doing it without worries about subsidies.

Progressive from Wisconsin

What seems surprising to me is that Tesla hasn’t announced construction of another factory in the U.S. With the Model 3 sales going into high gear and the Model Y soon ready for introduction, the Roadster being re-introduced and the Semi-Truck ready for production, where exactly is all of this going to happen?

Progressive from Wisconsin

We have an experienced automotive work force and the closed AMC plant in Kenosha, WI, the Closed GM plant in Janesville, WI and a closed Ford Plant in St. Paul, Minnesota that would be good matches for Musk’s interest in higher wage, higher education, higher quality of life areas of the country to locate an expansion.

Doggydogworld

Tesla isn’t dumb enough to build cars in UAW country.

Priusmaniac

There is probably a priority on having a factory in China and in the EU because they would win on the import duty in those markets which makes a significant difference in final sales price and therefore allow more competitive pricing. It also reduce oversea car transport and associated cost and transit time.

In the EU duty tariff for ev from the US appears to be 10% according to this official site:

http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm?productCode=87038010&country=US

China just reduced it from 25% to 15%.

So avoiding those tariffs by having a local factory means a 10% and 15% higher potential profit margin which is enormous especially for the base 35000 $ model where margin is lower than the high end models.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“What seems surprising to me is that Tesla hasn’t announced construction of another factory in the U.S.”

Tesla has already announced that it will soon announce the location for a factory in China, and has also seriously talked about a factory somewhere in Europe.

As Tesla continues to grow, it is going to spread its manufacturing around the world, as other auto makers have done, to take advantage of currency exchange rates and to avoid tariffs where possible.

A second Tesla auto assembly plant in the U.S. probably won’t happen for awhile, altho I suppose it’s possible they’ll set up a separate manufacturing plant for the Tesla Semi Truck.

Dante

Doesn’t the chart also show that the Model 3 sold far more than 3875 in April? The 3-Series sold 3,550 and is shown at about 20% to the Model 3’s about 27% so that implies ~4,700 sales for the Model 3 in April. That’s quite a miss on the estimate.

Like we said before, it’s very hard to tell exactly. The thick red line doesn’t help and it’s tough to see precisely where the percentages line up. A similar chart was released last month and after looking at it with great detail, we admitted that April Model 3 sales were likely around 4,000 or more. We could have easily been off by a few hundred (10 percent or less), which is expected since no one has the “real” numbers. Other sites pegged sales around 4,000 in April. April was the toughest estimate thus far with starting a new quarter, the shutdowns, and not really getting any hints from Tesla.

We never claim to be perfect and we make mistakes. However, we’ll keep doing what we’re doing for our readers since we’ve been pretty successful over the years. That’s why we call them estimates.

Dante

I responded before seeing Wade’s comment below. Thanks.

Yes, somewhere above 4600 seems likely according to the graph although it isn’t accurate enough to peg an exact number. A few things effected April numbers. 1) Production in the first week of April was a little better than initial reports. (great!) 2) Less cars were headed to Canada in the first half of May than we were hoping. (not so great…) At the time we just didn’t have enough data on Canada. Now we do! (great!) The more data we have the more accurate we can be. 3) Estimating the end of the month is hardest. What’s the difference between a delivery on the 30th or 31st and the 1st or 2nd? A butterfly flaps its wings and someone misses a pickup or a pickup is rescheduled for earlier! In other words, they are still estimates after all! 😉 For April + May we are between 6% -7% of “official” numbers and we don’t even have June on the books yet. And as always, at the end of the quarter we will update the numbers as necessary once we get final numbers from Tesla. 🙂 If we need to revise up, it will likely be the April estimate.
John

It’s happening..