Tesla Model 3 Sales Hit Epic Volume In August

SEP 5 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 248

Raise the roof. Or rather, pop the top off of that tent.

In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July, which amounted to 14,250.

Think that’s a big number? Think again.

The moment of electric car lift-off has arrived with the Model 3 obliterating all previous marks by leaps and bounds.

August will be one to remember, that’s for sure. And it’s not just Model 3 sales that took off for Tesla.

Ready for them epic sales numbers? Aren’t we all…

By our estimations, Tesla sold an epic 17,800 Model 3s in August. Shocked? Of course, that’s the highest ever for sales of a single plug-in electric car in any month, beating the old mark set by the…Model 3.

The Model 3 now stands alone as one atop the sales chart for the year with no other plug-in electric car capable of catching it. The YTD tally so far stands at 55,882. An untouchable figure. The highest volume of sales ever for an electric car in a single year was back in 2014 when LEAF sales hit 30,200. With four months of sales still remaining in 2018, the Model 3 sits at nearly double the LEAF’s record.

Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X...

These two plug-ins were outdone by Model 3, but that’s expected.

For August, we estimate the following for sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 2,625 units in August
  • Tesla Model X  – 2,750 units in August

Both of those figures are more than twice as high than in July when our estimates put both cars at a volume of 1,200 for the Model S and 1,325 for the Model X.

Tesla holds a commanding lead in plug-in electric car sales for the year and will not be challenged by any other automaker for the YTD win. Trust us, no automaker can match Tesla for the year, so let’s call it right now. Tesla is #1 in U.S. plug-in electric car sales for 2018 and the margin will continue to grow as the year progresses.

Perhaps it’s time to give Tesla proper props for its plug-in progress.

TESLA MODEL 3

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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

TESLA MODEL 3 PERFORMANCE

Tesla Model 3 Performance - Dual Motor Badge
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Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion (wallpaper 2,560x – click to enlarge) Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Wide Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Touchscreen

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248 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Sales Hit Epic Volume In August"

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It honestly doesn’t matter how often we mention and reiterate that production/builds and sales/deliveries are two completely different things. Oftentimes, an automaker only delivers about half of what it produces in a month. Nonetheless, the doubters and naysayers will continue to bother. Geez!

REXisKing

True, are you referencing GM’s Bolt inventory, or BMW’s 3 series?

Someone out there

So what happens with all the cars that are produced but not sold then? At some point these two numbers must come fairly close to each other unless they produce a lot of scrap.
Even if they only sell half of this month’s production this month, they must also sell half of last month’s production this month. So it evens out over time.

Mil

Exactly this ^ It must eventually balance out!

We are already aware that Tesla is struggling to deliver some 20k+ cars a month in the US alone. That’s a huge undertaking with one primary location. In terms of manpower and facilities, the automaker is just not yet equipped to handle this. This is especially true since we believe Tesla had no clue that the Model 3 would see such a massive number of reservations. Any large, highly profitable, legacy automaker with unending resources and years of experience could easily pull it off. Tesla will struggle with it for now. It is what it is. I think it’s more important to be positive about what they have achieved rather than digging up the negatives surrounding what they are not yet capable of.

chano1

But what a great challenge it is to grows as to resolve that struggle to deliver nationally and then worldwide.

Babel

Steven, they have known about the ‘massive number of reservations’ for over two years. They thought they’d be producing 5,000/week at the end of 2017.
There was plenty of time to develop the logistics. Inexcusable, as result, customers are suffering. And investors.

It still doesn’t mean they were or are equipped to handle it. I’m saying that when they released the Model 3, I don’t think they had any clue there would be 450k reservations. Tesla was/is not equipped to tackle that. Elon could say they were and be optimistic, but it didn’t take long for them to realize that it was no picnic. Hence, after all this time, they are just finally getting it worked out. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, it’s just the fact of the matter. A major automaker could pull it off fairly easily, but not Tesla. Regardless, for the space, the number is pretty impressive.

Richard

Correct! But people will complain about anything these days. My advice is , be thankful you can afford a Tesla car and you have one on order. And be mindful and considerate of the situation Tesla is in before complaining.

Robert Weekley

Knowing about a demand, and having the resources to satisfy it, in all its avenues, are 2 different things! People already complain that they spend so much more than they take in!

Starting up 2 new Teams and Businesses would be needed to handle the volume they are adding to the market: Logistics, & Shipping, with their own Fleet of Growing Auto Transports!

jw

Babel, they NEVER said they’d be producing 5k/week at the end of 2017. Plain FUD.

bro1999

Uh, yes they (as in Elon) did:
“Jul 2, 2017 – Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec” – Elon Musk on Twitter
20,000/4 weeks = 5k/week
If you want to play internet lawyer and claim the “20k Model 3’s in Dec” statement technically only breaks out to 4,514/week, go nuts.

Richard

I’m with you 100%. Electrek has joined the bring down Tesla crew imo

Robert Weekley

Yeah! Fred does seem to be broadcasting a collection of complaints, today!

bro1999

AHAHAHAHA, funniest comment in this entire section. Fred’s 100% still in Elon’s pocket.

Andy

They’ve had two years to realise the volume they will need to be shifting. The “didn’t realise” excuse doesn’t really cut it today. They also knew how many cars they were planning on making – 10,000 a week has been the aim for a number of years.

They got blindsided on how difficult it actually is to deliver that many vehicles IMO. Perhaps they are starting to realise why dealerships are the stalwart of most other manufacturers.

Scott Franco

Shot into space???

Brian

Tesla is producing Model 3 demo cars for test drives and service loaners. These numbers don’t incude international sales either. Dealer inventory will produced next year and likely in substantial numbers so that a special ordered car isn’t a made to order car. Also, I think Mercedes would like to rent a couple Model 3s.

chano1

Dealers?

Riggald

They get stuck in the delivery pipeline. Some manufacturers seem to have a much longer gap between “rolls off the production line” and “gets handed over to a paying customer” than others do.

Loverboy

Elon is golden he can do no wrong. Go Tesla!!

chano1

True, but each month they will sell the unsold half from the previous month as well. What is more, a few hundred cars will be set aside for showrooms and ad-hoc test drive events.

Richard

The FUDsters are really out in force at the moment. Negative spin cycle is set to warp drive!

Go Tesla !!

TM3x2 Chris

Oh man, the TM3 is so close to my expected 18,349 number. What can I say, wrong again.

Viking79

In the US, Tesla as a brand almost outsold BMW as a brand (including trucks). They will easily outsell them next month. Unreal. Tesla easily outsold Mercedes (entire brand including SUVs) in the US market.

Edit:
BMW Total: 23,789
Tesla Appox: 23,175
MB Total: 20,339

REXisKing

What about soon to be bankrupt Lexus?

Dima

Since when is Lexus bankrupt? They are highly profitable, and make the most reliable cars in the world. It is a serious Japanese outfit, and a division of Toyota (the world’s most successful and respected car company).

Richard

How’s that Hydrogen project going, Toyota?

will

yeah, but it got to make MB money to be profitable

Viking79

What do you mean? Tesla will turn a nice profit this half…

Edit: Tesla sold about 23,000 cars in Aug with an average transaction price (ATP) well about $60,000. This is much higher than MB ATP in the US. Even with Tesla’s temporary inefficiencies and R&D they should be able to pull a profit. In 2017 (number I could find), MB had an ATP around $57k across the brand, Tesla alone beats that on their model 3, let alone the about 5000 Model S/X with ATP closer to $100k.

Get Real

Speaking truth to power Viking79!

Norway67

Mercedes sold 167.000 cars worldwide in august, with profit, so Tesla still has a way to go.

dmm1240

Tesla does have a way to go. However, it’s good to remember that the sales figures quoted above are for the U.S. only. Tesla moves as many Xs/Ss outside the U.S. as inside. Model 3s are still mostly sold in the U.S., but Tesla has been delivering quite a few in Canada lately that I presume don’t show up in the 17,800 August figure. You can probably add another 2,000 or so units thanks to the Canadians. With 200k+ M3 reservations in the EU, Tesla has not even begun to tap that market, should come starting early in 2019.

Speculawyer

Not bad for a relatively new car company with only 3 cars available for sale.

Oh….and it’s an electric car company…a totally suicidal mission until Tesla pulled it off.

chano1

MB wasn’t building Gigafactories and more. Soon they will feel the pain of hunting for batteries. No forward thinking there, unlike Mr. Musk.

Robert Weekley

Of Course! About 12-14 Months to go, Model 3 will be World Wide, plus the S & X which already are (for the most part), and if they actually hit 10,000 Model 3’s per week, in production, added to the 1,000 Model S + 1,000 Model X, that is good for 12,000 per week, or about 50,000 per month, and by then they may well have smoother sales deliveries worked out, hence about 30% of those MB Sales. From One Little California Plant!

Get Real

Disruption at its finest, build compelling EVs at mass-production levels (along with an equally compelling ecosystem in Super Chargers) and allow that scale to do its job in driving down costs.

Meanwhile the laggard, legacy LICE makers have to react or lose market share to the superior technology and this is why Tesla has become the only American auto OEM to successfully compete with and beat the formerly dominant German luxury/sport makers at their own game.

Speculawyer

Haha! I love that acronym….Legacy Internal Combustion Engine automakers….LICE automakers.

Richard

That acronym will stick, thanks! 🙂

Richard

You are not wrong. Greatest manufacturing accomplishment I have seen. This is bigger than the I-phone disruption.

chano1

Not the BMW trucks too!!!!
Passenger cars only.

Nice!

Brave Lil' Toaster

You bet money on that number, didn’t you.

TM3x2 Chris

No bets were placed, no money was at risk.
I still have a sliver of hope that if the delivery number gets revised it will end up closer to mine.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

“Tesla sold an epic 17,800 Model 3s in July”

These are July numbers????

TM3x2 Chris

July, August, what’s the difference? The important thing is that Model 3 rules!

TM21

“And untouchable figure”
how about
“An untouchable figure”

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, 220, 221 — whatever it takes. 😉

Robert Weekley

P-P, with you user name, are you familiar with the Cessna 336 or 337 Skymasters? The “Twin Engined, Push-Pull, Tanglefoot”?

That whould be a great Test Bed Mule, for Putting the new Siemens 260 kW/350 Hp Aircraft Electric Motor in!

Another Euro point of view

Not bad at all as it is not too far from to their production numbers.

Viking79

20,000 next month and they are right in the middle of their 50-55,000 estimate. Looks like they will have no issue hitting that goal.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

No way dude. They’ll be lucky to hit 18.9k next month.

Nix

LOL! I see what you did there…

Yes, even just 18K cars in Sept. would put the total at 50,050 units, and get Tesla into their estimated range of sales, allowing them to hit their sales targets.

antrik

I’m pretty sure that guidance was for production, not sales?…

Viking79

Why? My point is they easily hit their 50k target at this point even if it is as low as you suggest. Given Jul to Aug was a jump of 25%, a similar improvement would put it at over 22,000, so hitting 20,000 should be relatively easy. Worst case is probably what you say.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Poor Trollnonymous! 17 downvotes (at the moment, probably more later) just because he omitted the –> 😉

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Bruh, I’m in David Green territory now!

philip d

He is AWOL lately. Maybe dumped that handle and is posting under a new one?

Yup!

As it stands right now, we have no reason to believe they will not exceed 50,000 units.

Wojtek

It’s even better than that. Keep in mind the numbers reported by INSIDEEVs are deliveries, not production. And only US deliveries, not including Canada. It looks like they are on track to deliver nearly 60,000 Model 3s overall in Q3.

Robert Weekley

Well, Ontario Model 3 Byers may have gotten a Reprieve, but it only lasts until Sept 10 Deliveries Plated and Insured! Ontario Deliveries after that date get no rebates, so we may get a slump here, for a while!

I am still preparin. room in my finances for what will likely be a more expensive car than ever before, and I am also awaiting the Towing Option Numbers, to be solid! (Solid = 2,000 pounds Minimum, 2,500 pounds desired!)

It might be a toss up, in buying a used EV for local Driving, and waiting for a Model Y, as well!

TJKR

So will the total monthly exceed 35K? If so, that will be very impressive. Considering Toyota Corolla was the #1 selling passenger car in July, selling 26,754 cars, Model 3 will easily be in the top 5 by next month and I am willing to bet it’ll be #1 this time next year.

KumarPlocher

This is truly wondrous.

Billy Gomes

Depending on how well the Nissan Sentra sold in August, the Model 3 will be either 5th or 6th best selling car in the US for August, I have no doubt that the Model 3 will be in the #1 spot this time next year, it will be interesting to see if they can get there by December.

Nix

Projecting the numbers, that would be true IF all the Model 3 units built this time in 2019 went to the US market. But we know that Tesla is going to start exports to other markets, and they will be exporting a whole lot of cars next year. I’m guessing YOY US sales will be fairly stable from Q3/Q4 2018 to Q3/Q4 2019, with the rest going to grow global market sales.

Andy

That’s a complex estimation to make. By this time next next year they’re going to have $1875 in rebates, rather than the $7000 currently. They’ll also be a long way into their reservation list. To counter that they may have released the $35k vehicle, but with the incentive winding down that gives a saving not of $14k as of currently, but of $9k ($33k vs $42k), for a vehicle without the premium option or the longer range battery.

For US sales I think they will have peaked by then, to possibly a lower number than we will see this Q3/Q4. That’ll be offset by the rise in sales elsewhere, meaning total production will still be higher than now.

Can the US market sustain the sales numbers of a premium priced small sedan for that long?

Brian

Uber + Lyft drivers will need about 200,000 Model 3s in the US, mostly $35k – $40k cars.

Andy

Good point, hadn’t really considered that.

antrik

Not all would have to go to US — only about 2/3 😉 So yeah, not very likely…

Unless, of course, demand remains even higher than expected, and they expand production beyond current plans.

floydboy

Impressive! You humans show promise!

TJKR

I picture you as a 10 ft alien with large forehead carrying a book titled “To Serve Man.”

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Que Rod Serling and the Twilight Zone music……..

William

If he’s not the 10 ft alien in T.Z. , then I’m pretty sure he is probably in the following Simpsons, under 8 ft alien, police lineup.

https://youtu.be/x2EaSQVoUuU

Joe

when does tesla normally officially announce its monthly sales numbers?

Never

Michael

They usually schedule the release for the 12th of never.

ffbj

..and that’s a long, long, time.

Billy Gomes

Tesla announces quarterly numbers at their quarterly earnings call typically 1 month after the quarter so first we of November. but they don’t separate units sold by country or units in general, just overall revenue, unless they want to show off market share numbers.

Doggydogworld

Tesla reports production and deliveries a few days after the end of each quarter. The detailed quarterly financial report, as you mention, comes about a month later.

antrik

Well, they do publish final delivery numbers along with the financial reports… The generally do not differ much from the preliminary figures published a month before though.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla reports quarterly sales/delivery figures, not monthly ones. We can thank InsideEVs for its ongoing efforts to provide a very close estimate of monthly sales.

TM21

Where is the Green guy chiming in to say, “hey, that was 2 more cars than my estimate.”

Haha, he’s not around, but as usual, he was right on par.

BroncoBet

Really? That is accurate, my estimate was 17,201 and I was so proud of myself. Great work by Tesla,nice to see them rank up there with ICE vehicles.BTW Tesla finally started delivering to Norway again, nice to see that important market spring back to life. I’d expect next year US sales of 3’s to be healthy but lower than this years, pent up demand filled and less subsidies.

chris

can you describe the methodology for estimating these values? I’m assuming that Tesla isn’t supplying these numbers. Thank you.

Loads of work and resources. If we told you we’d have to … oh wait …

Lots of late night data gathering from all corners of the net.

The key is to not rely on a single source. As far as the ultimate number, I initially make several estimates using different methods and data types. I then use those to compile a final estimate.

Steven then compares it with his own estimate.

The exact methods are trade secrets lol. 😉

So far on the Model 3, we have been accurate within 3%-4% of actual for Q2 and for July as well (based on rough numbers resleased by Tesla last month for july)

Historically (except on rare occasions) you can generally expect our numbers to be accurate within 5% each quarter. Impossible to be 100% accurate every month. But we keep the chart updated as we receive new information so it only gets better over time. 🙂

Pushmi-Pullyu

“The exact methods are trade secrets lol.”

I have it on good authority that it involves an Ouija board, a Tarot card layout, and close examination of the entrails of a sacrificed goat. (Mum’s the word on the names of the various goats!)

TM3x2 Chris

No, I believe there is a fine print disclaimer that reads “no goats were harmed during the estimating process”.

No goats! We would never sacrifice animals in the name of sales numbers.

So don’t worry… even two headed llamas are safe! 🙂

antrik

Not meant as a demand or accusation or anything; just wondering: do you really think it would affect your “trade” in any way if you disclosed the exact method for arriving at the numbers that you publish freely?…

Unless of course it involves things like super secret inside sources 🙂

TM21

31 days in August = 575 Model 3 cars / day * 7 days per week = 4,020 cars per week.
Now, how do they boost this 50% to hit 6,000 cars per week?
Maybe there is some easy pickings like less downtime? Or do they need an additional paint station?

KumarPlocher

This is so cute. Seriously though, there are hyper-qualified teams of people completely focused on getting there, so be patient and you will be rewarded.

TM21

Ah yes, how many did not get counted because they were shipped outside the US? This could mean production was healthier than 4000 per week.

Production is way, way different from deliveries.

Yup, some weeks for sure.

Doggydogworld

Model 3 only goes to US and Canada, and they flooded Canada in May/June to avoid Car200k in the US and grab as many $14k Ontario credits as possible. So probably not many Canada sales for a while.

On the flip side, Tesla’s stalkers assure us the vast parking/storage lots in Lathrop, Burbank and elsewhere swell by thousands of Model 3s each week. So delivering 4k/week must mean they’re production 6k/week, right? Ha.

6,000 per week would be production. We track deliveries/sales.

TM21

Then it sounds like the pipeline to deliveries should be filling up – meaning 2000 cars a week are being produced but not delivered (the number of cars not claimed by owners is taking up space somewhere). The Tempe, Az delivery center is jammed packed with cars. If production increases much, I’m not sure where they will put the extra cars. They say they are handling about 35 customer-take-ownership events per day.

Wally

They aren’t producing 6k M3’s a week

Nix

For production improvement, they are working on Paint:
https://insideevs.com/musk-paint-tesla-model-3-bottleneck/

For improving the Delivery Rate for cars already built, they are hiring more folks throughout the delivery chain to get cars that are already built into the hands of customers. That is their second roadblock holding back sales:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-hires-improve-delivery-experience/

Rr

Still appears to be an article of estimates, hope they meet or exceed that.

leafowner

Averages about 4200 per week — less than the supposed 5000 per week they claim they are making. Are some going to Canada & overseas?

TM3x2 Chris

You might be confusing car deliveries with production numbers.

Michael

“might be” = “are”

Rebel44

Some are going to Canada – no official overseas shipments yet.

Michael

Hundreds are going to Canada.

M Hovis

Manufacturing is hard. Take a block with a single hole through the center. I could talk to you thirty minutes without taking a breath on what could be wrong with that part. How is the form? Are the sides flat? Is the bore round? What is its cylindricity? Are the side parallel two-dimensionally and three-dimensionally? Are the sides perpendicular? What about the location of the bore? Does it have a true position specification for regardless of feature size or maximum material condition? That’s just looking at one part. Can you control the process? If not why? Bad tooling? Bad fixturing? Error in the machine tool? Humidity? It goes on and on and on.

Tesla is still learning to manufacture. With every passing day they learn. Refining the process while ramping production takes years. Detroit sits back and snickers. Meanwhile, Tesla/Panasonic is also learning how to manufacture batteries. Tesla quietly snickers.

We track deliveries, not production. Very different here …

Nelson Tam

Is the number for US deliveries only or does it include deliveries to Canada?

Michael

US only. Canadian deliveries were estimated by GCBC to be 500ish.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Were talking Delivered! [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ιοο̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]

Vexar

Puff this up a little @Eric Loveday. Cover the sales figures for all the other mid-sized sedans. Yes, it left the Mercedes C-class in the dust. People need to see that Tesla has made their successful mainstream car (a luxury car at that). Rank it next to the Toyota, Ford, Chevrolet, and Honda vehicles.

KumarPlocher

goodcarbadcar.net uses different methodology, as they have M3 at 20,450. Here are their rankings for August:

1. Toyota Camry 30,141
2. Honda Civic 27,677
3. Honda Accord 26,725
4. Toyota Corolla Family 26,155
5. Tesla Model 3 20,450
6. Hyundai Elantra 15,475
7. Nissan Altima 14,925
8. Nissan Sentra 13,314
9. Ford Fusion 11,286
10. Kia Optima 11,074

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/09/august-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

Thanks for sharing. They usually use our numbers. But, we didn’t get them out right away, so they estimated their own. Ours have been proven consistently on target for years, but it would be even better if GCBC is right!

Dante

The cool thing about that list is that Tesla is #5 no matter which numbers you use.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yeah, the Model 3 has broken into the Top Ten of U.S. sales of cars (not including light trucks).

Woot!

Go Tesla — Keep Going Tesla!

Quebec 100% EV

…you meant to say Top Five ? 🙂

Timothy Hughbanks

What makes this even more remarkable is that the Model 3 sells for an average of about $50K per car. If you take that into account, it seems likely that Americans paid more for Model 3’s in August than for any other passenger car sold in the United States.

Viking79

I think the average is more like $60k per car… 😉 (minimum is $50k).

Dima

The Japanese companies are dominating – as they are the highest quality and most reliable automakers.

When Honda and Toyota move into BEVs, it’s going to be awesome.

Nix

Honda and Toyota are allowing themselves to be eclipsed the same way the Detroit Big Three slumbered while Datsun, Honda, and Toyota grabbed huge market share from them. Even long after the Big 3 finally responded, the damage was done. They had permanently taken market share and there was no forcing them out.

We are at the same point now. Honda and Toyota will eventually build competitive vehicles (which is a very good thing, and I hope it happens soon), but it is too late. The breech of the wall has already happened. Tesla is now already a large market competitor that already has a strong market share. Just like the Big 3 were never able to undo the Japanese invasion, or the European invasion of cars, the Tesla invasion is here to stay and Japanese “dominance” is by no means guaranteed.

Get Real

Yeah right, just as soon as Coyota gets his head out of its Fool Cell orifice!

Robert Weekley

You Hope!
But so far, the Honda Clarity BEV is not evidence of that!

Yep. We’ll get to all that soon. Focused on sales reporting this week!

Nichen

Good work Tesla!!! Nice. I needed to hear that 🙂

Chuck

The number seems to be low. GoodCarBadCar has it at 20450.

Nope

newpolaris

A bit smaller than goodcarbadcar.net which is Tesla Model 3: 20,450

Terawatt

I wasn’t too far off with my guess of 17,500 then. Based on heavy hinting from you guys that August would be very good, of course.

sandbun

Why would I be shocked at a number of 17,800 when the hope was to make about 5,000 a week and to be up to 6,000 a week by the end of August?

5,000 a week would be production. Our number is deliveries. Very different ballgame. Everyone should be way impressed here.

Freddy

17800 in a month… That’s under 5000 per week ! Bloomberg’s estimation seems a little bit higher (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/#)

Bloomberg’s model is for long-term and has nothing at all to do with deliveries.

Seven Electrics

4100 a week; does this include Canada?

No, not 4,100 a week. This is deliveries!

Doggydogworld

I assume he knows it’s deliveries, since they don’t do production in Canada….

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Were talking Delivered! [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ιοο̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
Duh!

Lawrence

We love both of our Model 3’s. They’re selling so many and it’s apparent because I see so many everyday. They’re everywhere around here and are getting commonplace as a Toyota Camry.

Big Solar

Are you in California?

Lawrence

Yes.

Loboc

I have not seen a single Model 3 in the DFW area yet.

Of course, I’m only out there three commutes a week on the same route at the same time of day, so, the odds are slim of seeing any specific EV.

Some Plug-ins are very hard to spot like a CT6 PHEV. Gotta be up close and personal. Unless it’s purple (Amethyst).

Viking79

I have seen 2 local Model 3 cars in Iowa already (4 hours from closest service center).

JJG

I see at least one per day in the NW Chicago area; usually more like 3-4 if I’m on the road at peak time. Saw a black one about about an hour ago while out for lunch.

I am in the DFW area. 🙂 See them daily.

One in my neighborhood in fact. See others on the drive to work most days. Just passed one on northwest highway on my way back from lunchbreak in fact.

Matthew Kennel

California: the question is not how many I see in on the road, but how many there are in my office parking lot. I think 4 i3’s, about 7 S/X and maybe 5 3’s now. I bet 15 by next year.

TM3x2 Chris

Depending on where you are in California, you might be able to see dozens TM3s in single parking garage (Silicon Valley).

Michael

I saw two in Austin a few weeks ago. See them quite regularly in Chicago.

Ziv

I started seeing 3’s occasionally last month in the NoVA region near DC. This past two weeks I have been seeing a LOT more 3’s but I have also been seeing a larger amount of Volts as well. Bolts, S’s, X’s and Leafs, not so much.
Anecdotal evidence, but the trend is our friend.

BroncoBet

I check the SC daily here in downtown Las Vegas and the only two 3’s I’ve ever seen here was months ago, they may be filling for free at the casinos,I assume all the S’s I see are charging free.

Kay

I’m in DFW and commute on the Dallas North Tollway every day. I see 3-5 model threes every single day now! Uptown Dallas is filled with them too.

Shaun

See them regularly here in SE Minnesota. Just saw a white Model 3 at Costco yesterday actually.

Brian

I see five or six a day in Atlanta. More common than Model X, Volt, Bolt, Leaf 2, and i3. Not as common as Model S a d Leaf 1 yet.

Djoni

I don’t see any Bro1999 comment here?

So sad right?

No sir!

bro1999

Sorry, I have a real life and have to work and stuff and can’t spend 100% of my time surfing internet comment sections looking to troll, unlike you it seems.

Djoni

But you are kind enough to take your real life time to reply?

We appreciate your devotion but probably not like you wish.
Don’t be thin skinned and just say it simply, it’s an accomplishment from Tesla and EV and enjoy it.

Is this asking much from you?

Stand up and do it or keep being perceived as a Troll is your call.

Taylor Marks

It’s looking plausible that the Model 3 could reach #4 for monthly US sales either late this year or early next year… they’d beat out everything but the Ford F-150 (typically manages ~74K/month), the Silverado (normally ~45K/month) and the RAM Pick-up (normally ~40K/month). The next highest vehicle would be one of the Rogue, CR-V, or RAV4, each of which typically have 32-42K per month.

It should solidly crush the Camry, Carolla, and Civic which each typically manage 20-30K.

Billy G

and those legacy mfg numbers are only falling, Camry saw sales fall by 18% year-on-year in August

Viking79

Exactly, and these are new designs. The great looking new Accord has lower sales than the outgoing model did. Not a great trend.

Andy

Everyone’s buying CUV’s. The Sedan market has been shrinking for years (peaked around 2013/14), one of the reasons several manufacturers have or are in the process of jumping ship.

It’s one of the reasons Tesla need to release their Model Y.

Viking79

Sedans are still a huge market.

Andy

It is, but sales have been falling in double digit % for several years. Long before the Model 3 was released. Conversely CUV/SUV sales have shot up a corresponding amount.

Robert Weekley

Elon said 2019 unveiling, on “The Ides Of March”, or March 15th, for Model Y! Production Location and Dates unknown yet (By us “Po Folk!”).

Andy

Presumably it’s at least three years before you’ll be able to buy one though – they haven’t even announced a factory location yet, let alone started building unfortunately.

Nix

They will begin to divert Model 3 production to foreign markets before they hit those sales numbers in the US.

M Hovis

It all depends on when they start shipping to other markets. If they shipped all Model 3s to the US market in January, they most likely would take the pole position. It would be meaningless but so cool at the same time.

Doggydogworld

January is never a good month and will be especially tough in the US this time around as the tax credit halves on 1/1/19.

vdiv

“Perhaps it’s time to give Tesla proper props for its plug-in progress.”
Was this intended for specific readers? Wonder who those may be… 😉

Michael

Languid lovers of ‘lliteration?

Prsnep

Everyone expected higher numbers than those of July. I’m not sure I’d have called those numbers “epic”. When sales reach 20k, are we gonna call it “mega epic”. 25k is “super mega epic”?

Michael

The car has a $49K starting price and it’s the #5 selling passenger car in the US. Bow down and show some respect.

It’s fantastic. This is an EV. They don’t sell …

JJG

Not just an EV but highly optioned ones with a hefty price tag. Has to make you laugh or choke at the absurdity reading the articles saying there’s no demand.

Yep!

Andy

With a large pre order list – so condensed demand.

Nix

17,800 units would be considered a good YEARLY sales number for other BEV’s other than Tesla.

Haha, right!

BayAreaMech

Those are big numbers, but I’m not sure why this surprises anyone. Tesla had 400K pre-orders for the Model 3! These aren’t new sales of people coming in off the streets like every other carmaker has to contend with. These are basically all pre-sold cars that Tesla is finally delivering. The bigger news here is that Tesla is getting close to being able to churn out 20k cars a month on its production line. These sales numbers are absolutely not sustainable long term, but it’s a big deal that they are finally getting their production problems dealt with. Good for Tesla!!

Viking79

I think the sales might be sustainable long term, but not at the price point. I.e., I think they might sustain 20k a month but many will be the $35k model. I think the Model 3 will become the American Sedan of the 21st century ousting the Accord and Camry, especially more premium versions of those. The car is eating into all premium sedan sales, despite truck headlines, sedans are a very large market.

TJKR

I beg to differ, I don’t think Tesla will have any problems selling 20K a month from now on. I know one person, who drives a BMW 5 series, who just put in a order for Model 3. The dude is a diehard climate change denier and conservative as it comes. He can’t even spell electric car. He just test drove co-worker’s Model 3 and learned it only costs $30-$40 bucks a month in electricity to go 1000+ miles compared to $100-$150 a month in gas. Imagine next year, if there are half a million of these on the road. People will get smart real quick.

Viking79

This is exactly right, make a car that goes faster than a gas car for less money and people will buy them. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the Model 3 be the best selling sedan in America (and worldwide) given enough time. Maybe next year in America.

KumarPlocher

Why on earth do you think they’re not sustainable long-term?

Michael

Quite a few of these sales are new orders. You don’t need a reservation to order a car today.

Matthew Kennel

The company hasn’t started to sell the 3 at all in Europe or Asia, or started to lease it anywhere. At that price, many new cars are leased.

I think the sales numbers are sustainable long term because of the above but the average selling price will decline somewhat.

Robert Weekley

Every one of these sales was “Off The Street”, but they came off the street about 2 years ago! Just getting their cars now! A patient lot!

thebosz

I read the number and thought it sounded pretty good. It wasn’t until I looked at the report card and saw the stark difference: 55k vs the Prime at 18k for the year.

Holy cow.

It’s like the rest of the pack isn’t even trying.

I hope that Tesla keeps the momentum going. I know I’ve been seeing more and more Model 3s around here in Portland.

Billy G

but Jaguar I-pace, Hyundai Kona, and Porsche Taycan are all Tesla killers coming later this year, once they each deliver 30k next year, that will show Tesla! s/

Pushmi-Pullyu

The rest of the pack doesn’t have access to battery cells at the volume Gigafactory 1 delivers, nor within an order of magnitude of that.

Tesla planned ahead, and spent much time and effort, ensuring a very large volume supply of EV battery cells. The other auto makers don’t care, so haven’t yet made that investment. But those who want to survive the EV revolution will have to, and they can’t wait too long to do that, either.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Damn a Holy Sh1t Batman!
How many times do they need to tell you people these are Deliveries and not production numbers!!

Michael

Eleventy hundred times!

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’ve told you a million times not to exaggerate!

bro1999

Did you know deliveries are not production numbers?

will

I was right on my estimates 15k-18k. It was on the high side. Next month it will finally hit 20k

Mark.ca

Me too….i had 10K-50K.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

LMAO!

Mark.ca

No, really… i did! I’m thinking on applying for one of those “analyst” positions at Forbes….i’m qualified now.

Speculawyer

So that’s as many Model 3s AS EVERY OTHER PLUG-IN CAR (PHEV & BEV) FROM EVERY OTHER CAR COMPANY COMBINED.

That’s amazing.

Benz

More than 50,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q3 2018 seems very likely.

More than 60,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q4 2018 seems very likely as well.

Kootenay EV Family

Very impressive! I’m having a hard time waiting on the fence for the Model Y (or e-tron quattro maybe…) The temptation to get a M3 to be able to stop having to charge my Leaf 2x per day is pretty high!

Viking79

It is hitting me too, and that Model 3 Long Range RWD is derated for range so it is actually better than Tesla implies and faster charging too. I think it would be a great long distance traveler. Y likely won’t be as efficient. I was really waiting for Y though, and since I just bought my used i3 I have to wait… 🙂

Pushmi-Pullyu

Regarding Tesla’s deliveries for August — not just the Model 3, but also U.S. deliveries for the Model S and Model X — there is only one thing to say:

comment image

Assaf

My hat is off. Respect.

daniel a cashmer

maybe we’ll see that $35k version sooner than expected?

Matthew Kennel

The other way around. If they are selling metric tons at high prices, they won’t stop until those sales stop. The 35K version requires a newly designed battery pack not yet in production, and they will sell expensive models to Europe before that.

antrik

Actually, they claim they will start both at roughly the same time; so expensive global sales will make up for falling average prices in the US…

Quebec 100% EV

For the sake of Tesla’s profitability in the near term, I sincerely hope not.
I really think that they should start shipping the current version (LR+PUP) to left hand drive countries in Europe/Asia/Australia/Mexico first before starting to sell the base version. Anybody who cares about the long-term viability of Tesla as a company will be happy to wait a few more months for the base version.

Ron M

I’m not sure what’s gonna happen with overseas sales and to Canada and Mexico because of the Trade War Trump started. Hell he could impose another $200 billion on China tomorrow.

William

Try not and give him, or his administration, any more “bright ideas” on furthering the imposition of “Trumpariffs”, and the trade war “balance” agenda!

ModernMarvelFan

That is great. Tesla is holding up the entire EV sales by itself.

Dima

Well wait until more BEV models will be produced over the next two years, including from other manufacturers. By the end of 2020, total annual US EV sales could reach 500,000 a year. (Compared to only 199,000 in 2017).

echoalphapapa

Looks like it’s gonna reach 350K this year – don’t see why it won’t be 500K for 2019, not 2020

antrik

AFAIK no new high-volume models will be introduced in 2019 (aside maybe from 60 kWh Leaf?) — so any increases will have to be carried by Tesla pretty much alone. I don’t think 500,000 for 2019 is likely, nor 350,000 for 2018 🙁

Doggydogworld

350k is borderline possible for 2018. So far each month has been averaging 1-2k above 2017 excluding Model 3. So that’s ~218k ex-Model 3. Add 56k for Model 3 so far and 20k Model 3s each remaining month and it’s 354k total.

2019 looks more like 250k ex-3 plus 200k Model 3s for 450k total.

Prsnep

One reason might be that the rebate will have ended for Tesla.

Matthew Kennel

Do you have an estimate of average selling price? Would be interesting to rank by revenue. Probably only the large trucks would seriously exceed it.

Quebec 100% EV

I think I saw somewhere it hit $60k for August… maybe it was Electrek, cant remember

Nix

Yes, $59K was the number reported by Troy based on a self-selecting sample of buyers reporting their own orders on a spreadsheet:

https://insideevs.com/asp-tesla-model-3-59000/

M Hovis

Some more fun numbers. Tesla Model 3 estimated 55,882 deliveries through August 2018 just outsold the entire US EV market in 2012. By the close of 2018, it will have outsold all US EVs for 2013, 2014, 2015 and most likely 2016. Next year it will consume 2017 and very possibly 2018.

Benz

It’s getting more and more likely that the global annual total deliveries of Tesla EV’s in 2018 will be about 240,000.

Wow

antrik

I still think that’s the *minimum*; more likely 250,000 – 260,000 🙂

antrik

Or was that my production estimate? Not sure any more… Let’s say 250,000 deliveries is likely; 260,000 might be a bit of a stretch.

Doggydogworld

Assuming 100k S/X here’s how many Model 3s they need to average each month for each milestone:

230k requires 18k Model 3s/month SEP-DEC
240k requires 20.5k Model 3s/month SEP-DEC
250k requires 23k Model 3s/month SEP-DEC
260k requires 25.5k Model 3s/month SEP-DEC

SJC

The numbers they were using a year ago should be recalled from memory. I remember 300,000 per year.

Ron M

In the past for the TMS and TMX the March, June, September and December quarter had huge increases over the preceding two months. Hopefully this history will repeat itself with even bigger numbers for September TM3.

Dima

Good news that there is some increase from last month.

Hopefully total plug-in sales will reach into the high 200,000s for the year. (I could see a 50% increase compared to last year).

We’ll be near 200,000 already after August reporting is complete. 190k ish. 200k will be easily surpassed this month.

Terawatt

Do you also have a global list for YTD sales..? Presumably it would only be up to date for end of July, but it would still be interesting.

In Norway, the best-seller list of all cars currently have electric cars (BEVs) in first place (LEAF), second place (e-Golf), third place (i3), and forth place (Model X!). Then Toyota spoils the fun with Yaris in fifth. I can’t wait for bigger markets to have lists like that!

antrik

https://insideevs.com/august-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicles-sales-report-card/ has global YTD estimates; but only up to June. You can however see a figure including July at http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/08/global-top-20-july-2018.html . (Their figures are slightly different; but not substantially: only about 11,000 difference up to June.)

We will have July global in the chart very soon.

Sustainable2020

Better but I will only give Tesla props for coming much closer to Musk’s production goals….20K + model 3s a month, every month, through the year 2022.
Only then will Tesla and model 3 be the ubiquitous bev in the states and the vast majority of reservation holders supplied.

The irony is the goal numbers I wrote above are likely to be smashed some time late next year with regular monthly model 3 production, worldwide, of 40k or more.

P Roppo

What is the definition of “sold”? Delivered?

From our sales card and report card:

Every month InsideEVs tracks all the plug-in EV sales/deliveries for the United States by automaker and brand. Below, readers can find all the historical EV sales charts for the “current generation” of electric vehicles. Keep in mind that the words sales and deliveries are synonymous. In order for a car to count as SOLD, it has to be paid in full and be in the possession of the consumer.

Doggydogworld

That gets a little dicey with direct leasing. Although technically an OEM “sells” the car to its own leasing subsidiary, it’s a stretch to say the car is paid in full.

True. But, really, people were arguing that a car is SOLD once a deposit is paid. It has to be delivered and in the owner’s possession for an automaker to report it as a sale. Commenters were arguing that automakers were reporting sales of a car based on a reservation but no actual delivery.

proud dem

not exactly a time to dump tesla stock

Chris O

????? So where are madbro and “David Green”? It’s customary for threads like this to be carpet bombed with anti-Tesla FUD but only a few minor FUDsters have shown up? What changed? Change in moderation policy or maybe mission accomplished with TSLA in steady decline?

bro1999

Tesla Fanboi or hater or anything in between, 17k (or whatever the final number is) is impressive. Now imagine what the company could accomplish if their CEO could actually stay 100% focused on the cars and not get distracted by petty Twitter arguments every time someone tweeted something negative. 😉

Mark.ca

Not much more but i do agree he should get off TWTR….it’s troll infested anyway.

Mister G

GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS

Steve

InsideEVs just got mentioned on-air on CNBC. Congratulations 🙂

Hmmm, good to know. Can you find the clip? We’d love to see it!