Tesla Model 3 Sales Shatter All Records In December 2018


Tesla Model 3 sales soared to new, record-shattering heights.

Never before has a single plug-in electric car sold at this high level of volume in a single month.

The big Tesla Model 3 push was definitely on as Q4 came to an end.

In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July, which amounted to 14,250. Then, in August, sales shot up to 17,800. Then, September closed out Q3 with a real blast as sales hit 22,250 units.

Q4 started out predictably softer with Tesla Model 3 sales at 17,750 in the U.S. in October. For November, InsideEVs estimates Tesla sold 18,650 Model 3 in the U.S.

Well, now it’s end-of-quarter reporting time so we return back to a sales explosion. InsideEVs estimates that Tesla sold an astounding 25,250 Model 3 in December 2018 (*this figure doesn’t include Canada). That’s a new all-time high for the Model 3 and the single highest monthly figure for a plug-in electric car ever. Let that sink in for a moment…


If we look at year-over-year for the Model 3, the gains are ridiculous. In December 2017, Tesla sold 1,060 Model 3. Compare that to last month’s 25,250 and you’ll notice there’s more than just a wee bit of growth there. In fact, it may be the highest YoY growth of any major seller in the U.S. market.

The YTD tally is in now too for the Model 3. That figure for all of 2018 checks in at stands at 139,782. Cumulative sales now stand at 141,546, which is way higher than all of the plug-in vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2015.

The highest previous volume of sales ever for an electric car in a single year was back in 2014 when LEAF sales hit 30,200, so the Model 3 obliterated that record and almost matched that number in a single month.

Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X

For December, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 3,250
  • Tesla Model X – 4,100

More Model S & X sales info for December here

Automotive Group 2018 Yearly Sales

Tesla easily grabs the YTD win. Our tally puts the automaker at a combined total of 191,627 sold (Model 3, S & X) in the U.S. for all of 2018. We need not even list any other automaker here, as none were even close. That figure is well over 50% of the U.S. plug-in electric car market for the year. Even more impressive, Tesla likely accounts for over 2/3 of the revenue for EVs in the U.S. last year.

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182 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Sales Shatter All Records In December 2018"

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25,250 for December. Prior to 2018, the highest number for EVs sold in a YEAR was the Nissan LEAF at 32,000. That really puts things into perspective.

Tesla is the LARGEST EV Maker in America.

Tesla is making ‘Merica great again!

Oh Yeah? They are now a Made in China brand.

Not just America, but worldwide, they have 14,000 lead over BYD at the end of November.
For sure, they will take the 2018 crown even if BYD sold 35,000 vehicles last month.

Dec. figures aren’t online yet for Honda and Nissan, but comparing to Nov. figures, the Tesla 3 outsold every model of Honda except the CRV and every Nissan except the Rogue. And for Toyota, also for Nov., it outsold everything except the RAV4, and nearly outsold the entire Lexus line.

no, the leaf sold far more than 50.000/year already and there where chine models with more than 80.000/year.

Not in the US. Their is a reason Tesla’s federal tax rebate got cut in half before Nissan’s.

Great to see Telsa getting this out. However remember, yes the sales are “record setting”, but not unexpected! They built up a backorder thru reservations of about 500,000 worldwide. So they need to ship out 150K or more a year just to fulfill these backorders, never mind taking new orders along the way.

This is all good for Tesla as I said, but let’s put this in perspective. The vast majority of these deliveries are just filling reservations still. They’ve got about another 350,000 or more to go globally yet and need to get the RHD versions out this year!

It was “unexpected” by many, because people continue to say that once Tesla is done filling the reservations, it won’t be able to keep filling new orders and selling these cars. However, most of the Model 3s sold in Q4 had nothing to do with reservations. This is all new demand after reservations have been filled. It’s pretty fantastic and surely “unexpected” by all the haters and shorters that continue to say Tesla is only filling reservations and will soon die and fail. This false narrative continues to be shared with people and some tend to believe it.

Thanks Steven for the clarity. I am in no way trying to portray a “hater” or “shorter” view, as I am neither. I am also not one to believe that once all the reservations are filled they won’t sell any more Model 3s. They will of course continue to flourish with this and other models offered. After I had posted my comments I came across some further information that mentioned what you had stated in the majority of deliveries were NOT from reservations. I agree with others then that there is still a pretty big contingent of reservation holders who: are in U.S. and waiting for the $35K Base Model 3 as well as those who are in RoW areas and are waiting for their orders/orders to be opened in respective regions. I had thought that the number of folks waiting for the Base $35K would be a smaller group hence why I thought the majority of Q4 deliveries would be reservations fulfillments. My mistake. Since this is the case and new orders are gaining momentum and a bigger majority of Model 3 production allocations, this of course bodes well for Tesla’s future in helping to fund the Model Y… Read more »

Tesla has stated that over 75% of sales in Q4 was non-reservation holders. But as you point out there are likely many us reservation holders left who are waiting for the 35k USD model 3.

And or: Towing Rating, Full Self Driving (Tesla / Uber option), North Dakota Superchargers, Canada Superchargers!

North Dakota. The one true Tesla Supercharger Dead Zone. ..three coming though. …and then we can all visit. Just not in winter!

I canceled my two reservations a month ago. Would like to replace my 2012 PiP with a Tesla to keep my model S company, but I think the model Y would be a better replacement for the hatchback. Toyota’s Prime with only 4 seats and less cargo room, caused me to say no to the Prime.

The Y is going to be tremendous for Tesla.

I hope they make a hatchback 3. That will give 3 sales a kick in the pants when demand slows down a few years down the road.

I cannot wait for people to dump M3 for MY. I will be able to pick up a M3 for cheap.

The Model Y is going to be the hatchback version of the Model 3, more or less.

Oh no, you canceled reservations?
No 35k Model 3 for you!

Kenneth, Remember that Tesla Opened North America for General Sales of the Model 3 to the General Public, over 3 Months ago, as people waited not just for the lowest cost ($35,000) Model 3, but Also for a Towing Rating, which was hinted at it having, about a Week after the March 31st, 2016 Reveal event! As neither are yet available, it was a smart thing to do!

Also, many People in the USA & Canada, Lease Vehicles, and most of those don’t have their own Leasing partner, as they use the Leasing Arrangement offered at the sale, of which Tesla also is not yet offering, since only cash paid and bank financing are the current sales levers, beyond minor bits like less cost to include Enhanced Autopilot at the order, versus adding it later.

Then, there are a few other things, like: How will the Specs for the Model Y compare; Full Self Driving not quite ready yet; Supercharger expansion not yet covering North Dakota, Canada, and a number of N-S connections between them, and so on! Some of which, if addressed in 2019 will add more demand, both from Reservation Holders, like myself, and new buyers!

Thanks Robert for the additional info! All good!

” However, most of the Model 3s sold in Q4 had nothing to do with reservations.” Not sure that is a true statement. My reservation was over a year old and I just took possession in Dec. Tesla reached out to me, and other reservation holders back in June offering purchase earlier than the expected Fall 2019, based upon our put for the standard range, $35K+ vehicle. When they realized a substantial bite from reservation holders, they opened it up to those not waiting. A VAST majority of vehicles sold from June to December, were in fact, original reservation holders.

Tesla’s press release said that more than 3/4 of the Model 3s sold in Q4 were new orders, not previous reservation holders.

Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

Thanks Steven. I stand corrected and missed that info. Where did you find it?

After reading more carefully, it says more than 3/4 of **ORDERS** were new rather than from the reservation list.

Q4 deliveries in October and well into November were mostly for orders placed in Q3 or earlier, when they still had 2-4 month wait times. I’d estimate they had 20-30k orders in Q4, of which 15-23k were not from the reservation list.

Makes sense. Tricky wording for sure.

If demand is so great, why do they reduce the price by 2k? They are running short of premium orders and are not ready to sell base price models.

The $2k price adjustment has to be one of the most over-analyzed business moves in recent years.

Let me simplify it: Tesla dropped the price by $2k because they thought that change would make them more money.


As soon as you go beyond that you risk reaching some wildly wrong conclusions based on assumptions.

My assumption is that Tesla thought the reduction in US tax incentive would hurt sales, so they cut the price to lessen that effect. If they thought there would be no reduction in the quantity sold without the price cut, then they just gave away $2k/car for no reason. And since I doubt they’re selling the cars at a loss post-$2k cut, they almost surely could have dropped the price a few weeks or months ago, which lends more credence to the long-running view that subsidies tend to prop up prices.

LEASING. People could have reserved and though LEASING would be available.
when it is available that will UNLEASH the full Reservation List.

Sheesh. This is Autos 101.


They need to ship much more than 150K per year if they expect to convert most of the 500K reservations into actual sales. Many reservation holders have been waiting for more than 2 years now and everybody has a limit on their patience.

Tesla is lucky that there are no viable, affordable EVs on the market, shipping in volume (liquid cooled 50+kWh battery for ~$35K). Thus, they get away with their relative lack of volume (compared to the demand).

BTW, the current rate, 25K/month = ~6K/week which is ~300K per year leaving some weeks for factory upgrades and such.

Tesla is not lucky, they worked their ass off to get to this

In the face if critics,shorts ,haters and criminals

Don’t forget the cheats and liars unless they’re included already!


Indeed! Tesla has made its own “luck”. 🙂

Why do people keep saying there’s still five hundred thousand reservations?
If there are, that must include other countries now waiting and frankly, even Tesla considers these numbers irrelevant.

The number of total reservations reported for the Model 3 has always been the global number, not just U.S. reservations.

Tesla has stopped taking domestic (U.S. and maybe Canada?) reservations, but as I understand it, is still accumulating reservations for overseas countries.

“Luck” has nothing to do with this revolution. “Timing” is everything!

That’s not luck, that’s the point.

Tesla said less than 25% of sales came from the reservation list.

There’s a lot of pent-up demand beyond the reservation list, so these numbers will soften going forward, but not to the extent many believe.

only an idiot could say demand is softening with no Tesla Leasing Program.
You know Jack-xxxx about autos.

Tesla is now producing cars in 2~3 weeks after receiving the order. Indicates an inventory build this quarter or next. When this happens the cash flow takes possibly an unsustainable demand for cash.

@Limp said: “Tesla is now producing cars in 2~3 weeks after receiving the order. Indicates an inventory build this quarter or next. When this happens the cash flow takes possibly an unsustainable demand for cash.”


Tesla producing cars in 2-3 weeks is an indicator Tesla has worked out many of its early production bottlenecks. Prior to this, the Tesla naysayers were saying Tesla long production wait was indicator Tesla is not able to sustainably ramp up production to make a profit.

Early indicators are that Western Europe and Asia demand for Mobel 3 is huge and those markets are soon coming online for Model 3…

Limp, And, that “Inventory” will be getting Shipped (Literally – Put On A Ship) for Europe & China Markets, as well as Australia & New Zealand markets, if not Also South Africa & India Markets!

Possibly, even to R… R…. Russian customers! While anyone in USA is waiting for a Model Y, instead of a Sedan!

Also, South America, was also mentioned as being a Market Tesla was considering opening, in recent comments from Elon! So, USA is not the only place with Millionaires, that would like a Hot Sedan!

Yes – Take me as an example. I don’t have a reservation but am serious about getting a 3 which will be my second Tesla. I currently have an S and a Ford Focus Electric. I was going to wait until things settled down and they got all of the production kinks worked out.

My friend was going to buy a BOLT to go with their Model 3, and then they realized, why not just buy another Model 3?

They should consider the upcoming Model Y – unless they are desperate to get another EV right now.

The TMY will have the advantages of a “tall car”, but without the limitations or the charming little idiosyncrasies of the Bolt.

Once Towing, Base Model, Leasing, and more Service & Supercharger sites are located, even that “Softening” of sales, will likely still exceed Annual Bolt EV Volume. (The “First Affordable 200+ mile Range BEV!”)

Or, there will be so much pressure on Tesla to push Model Y production, due to massive Reservations for that, such that it effectively “Dwarfs” Model 3 Reservation List Numbers, of which more Service and Supercharger sites can only help increase interest!

Shall we start the Model Y Reservation Guessing Game now. Mine is 1 mill in the first week of announcement.

Don’t forget:
worldwide <– reservations
USA + CAN <– shipped so far

And they aren't done with the US & CAN yet either. They have a lot of back log still sitting there. They may be getting through the people not wanting the lower priced one in the US, but it's like they planed for that slack to be taken up in the rest of the world

Party pooper!

Sparky, what do you see as the Model Y versus Bolt EV comparison?

Since the Bolt EV came out and started deliveries about 7 Months before the Model 3, which has now reached about 10x Bolt EV Monthly sales, just 2 Years Later!

Do you see an All Wheel Drive Bolt EV coming? Any larger AWD Chevy EV?

The Model 3 deliveries were less than the analysts were expecting:

“The 63,150 Model 3s handed over to customers in the fourth quarter trailed the roughly 63,700 average analyst projection.” Bloomberg

And it seems that many Q4 sales where to non-reservation holders, suggesting that many of remaining reservation holders are waiting for the $35k version, or maybe that they’ve already eaten through the majority of the US reservations and the rest are international. 2019 will be an interesting year as we will no doubt find out the answer to this question.

Yep. Complete failure. Stock will plummet, Tesla will go bankrupt. If they only could have delivered another 550 cars. Geez!

Bloomberg needs a lower stock price to buy in.
Fake News.

Big boys are buying and selling the whole time and driving up and down the whole time. Works for them. I’ll stick to being long.

No one is calling it a failure. But tech companies get hammered when you don’t meet analyst expectations. I’ve been living the “record revenues/profits but stock goes down due to not meeting expectations” thing for many years. It’s frustrating, but then again public companies need to manage the expectations or accept the volatility and negative reports.

I wasn’t referring to you. I just meant people were talking about a drop in the stock price. I don’t follow the stock or any stock really. But, we get all sorts of nasty comments on Twitter about how Tesla has failed and it sucks and these delivery numbers are BS and fake, etc. It’s just somewhat amusing.

Well, the stock’s down 7% today, or roughly $22.00 per share, while the broader market is flat on the day. So F150 is right in that not meeting average projections takes a hit on stocks, as it has on TSLA today.

Doesn’t mean Tesla won’t succeed. Doesn’t mean TSLA can’t soar in the long run.


Almost every time a stock goes down on a “good” news day of a company, is because, all these things are priced in a head of time, and on the news day, it’s profit taking day.

Check any major company’s announcement over the years, and will never see a direct collation of the stock going up on good news everytime, which is contrary to what you would expect.

The price drop is significant and probably unexpected. If Tesla produces 100k cars next quarter, that will chop $200 million from their revenue, which could halve earnings or even flip them from profit to loss.

That’s the kind of thing that would hammer stock price in the future, so it makes sense to see a ~5% drop today. TSLA’s valuation is all about speculation of future sales and perception of value.

In the end, not a big deal. The biggest moment for Tesla is the Y reveal.

A price drop of ~7% is almost utterly insignificant for a stock as volatile as TSLA. It may be back up ~7% or even ~10% tomorrow.

“This is — maximum of investing should not be focused on short-term things. You should be focused on long-term things. We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders, like we couldn’t care less. Please sell our stock and don’t buy it.” — Elon Musk, 2 May 2018, responding to a time-wasting investor question during a conference call

Tesla could give a “Quarterly” Financial Report, showing Filings Stating a Billion $ in Profits, but if, “So Called Analysts”, “projected” they “Should” make $1.1 Billion”, stock Price could Still Drop! That is how fickle, and Manipulative, the “Markets” are!

It’s not “manipulative” or “fickle”, it’s just math and human nature.

Look, investors expected 63,700 sales. What’s the stock value for sales of 63,700? OK, that’s the price I pay or accept in a stock trade, since that’s what analysts believed Tesla had actually sold. It’s the best info we had at that time.

Then we get the actuals, and it’s 63,150 -slightly less. What’s the stock value for sales of 63,150? Slightly less, so the price of the stock drops slightly. Not because “manipulation”, or “fickle” – because we learned something new, and when we learn, we adjust.

It has nothing to do with Tesla per se, it’s simple how all markets work.

It certainly is manipulative if the “market movers” deliberately overestimate a company’s performance in order to manipulate the stock price. That happens quite literally all the time; it’s one of the typical “pump and dump” strategies used by large financial firms. It’s one of many ways in which the stock market is rigged to extract money from the small investor and give it to the large, super-rich investors.

I love Tesla but I buy and sell in the same day if raise sell and when cost only 300 buy.
Isn’t not love only bussines

Good plan! I have no issue with whatever people choose to do with stock. It’s investing and whatever works, right? What I do take issue with is when people purposefully try to spread misinformation in order to make a company look bad and bring its stock down to benefit their position. It shouldn’t be legal for people to flood the internet and social media with propaganda in order to attempt to make a company fail or to impact its stock price negatively. The same can be said about news that is falsely positive with a goal of elevating the company and its stock price.

Yes, misinformation is a rampant problem on the interwebs these days.

To say the least!

Great if that works for you and your heart can take it. :^)

“F.TESLA. Me and my big truck want to be stuck supporting terrorists and buying gas and diesel forever.”

(That’s a joke folks!)

Intel’s stock often goes down after a record quarter – buy on the rumor, sell on the news – profit taking perhaps.

Yup, this may very well be the case.

I once studied Apple’s product announcements , and how the market reacted, and it’s really quite unpredictable.

I guess we should’ve been working harder on our referrals.

With no current lease and no global shipments, the analysts are wankers at this point. Manufacturing is hard and Tesla hasn’t mastered that yet for the Model 3. I think they are making good steady progress though not as fast as Elon, investors, production control, or analyst would like. As a retired manufacturing engineer who wrote code for many an inspection robot for the automotive, I will repeat that you just can’t predict when statistical process control will arrive. As I was fond of telling production breathing down my neck “You will get it when you get it.” As for the Model 3, the manufacturing growth is not stagnant. They will achieve 1000 per day sometime in 2019. Why aren’t they there yet? Could be the added battery machines translate a new vibration in the floor, or an added room has changed the humidity. When you change the process the process changes. Deliveries were less than tappy tap analyst were expecting. geez

Wall Street certainly not liking Tesla’s Q4 results!

@bro1999 said: “Wall Street certainly not liking Tesla’s Q4 results!”

Hence why Wall Street is giving Tesla a market cap of over $50B… $20B more than Ford.


The new board member, Larry Ellison, thinks Tesla has gobs of upside. He’s not exactly stupid.

He also said it’s his second largest position after Oracle, with another 8,000+ shares a year coming.

Thanks, Larry!

They’re in the business of making money off of lending and financing, Tesla says they don’t need any right now, Wallstreet sees room for changing their minds.

I have doubts their gamble will pay off at this point. But they’re trying.

Bro1999’s comment is perfectly true, so shouldn’t be down-voted, even though we Tesla supporters don’t like it. This is really diluting the value of a down-vote.

Personally, I refuse to allow a no doubt very short-term dip in Tesla’s stock price ruin the absolutely fantastic news that Tesla’s 2018 sales/deliveries are up by 142% over 2017! That’s the most wonderful news, and this is the best day for Tesla’s outlook that I’ve seen in ages!
🙂 🙂 🙂

Volatile stock is Volatile and Profit Takers Took Profits. News at 9.

These are the very definitions of these terms, happening in real life just as the terms are defined. It always cracks me up when folks are surprised when the well-defined terms actually happen in real life exactly the way the terms are defined.

Word is delivery of new model 3 come 2~3 weeks after receipt of order. This would indicate reservations are fulfilled or cancelled.

No. It doesn’t indicate that. It indicates that Tesla hasn’t yet produced the Model 3 that many reservation holders are waiting for. It also indicates that people are placing new orders on vehicles that are currently available.

Sorry. Apparently Tesla misspoke or was misquoted.

Limp, Or clues you missed?

No, you’re just basing your opinion on either very incomplete info, or more likely you’re getting your Tesla-related news from the wrong sources; sources which deliberately misinterpret facts and figures because they’re trying to manipulate Tesla’s stock price.

Here are a couple of Truths:

(1) Tesla has stopped taking new domestic (U.S.) orders, so of course most new orders are not from reservation holders.

(2) There are plenty of people in the U.S. still holding onto their original reservation, waiting for Tesla to start selling the lower-priced Standard Range Model 3, or waiting for Tesla to offer leases on the Model 3, or waiting for various other things we can expect Tesla to do which it hasn’t yet.

I agree that many are waiting for a cheaper offer and while there was 500K+ on the list, now that the federal tax credit is sunseting you wonder about mass cancellation…

Folks may be waiting for…
1. The removal of the “PUP”/premium upgrade package, which at one time was a mandatory $5K option but its quietly bundled in as standard equipment without a price reduction…
2. IEV had a story that 80% of folks lease their EV, you still can’t lease one…
3. The SR battery…
4. Any combo of the above three

Do Not Read Between The Lines

EVs have particularly high lease rates because of heavily subsidized leases for compliance. Tesla won’t be doing that.

Musk said on 6/2/18 he’d lease them 6-9 months but him missing a deadline shouldn’t surprise anyone… https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1003142000307154944

But when Tesla finally starts leasing in 0-3 months, I’m sure the trolls will say the decision to start leasing that happened more than 6 months ago was done in Q2 2018 because of supposed “demand” problems in Q4 2018 when Tesla is hitting record sales numbers!! LOL!

Trolls are so predictable.

So Tesla will start Model 3 leasing by the end of Q1 2019…wanna bet? 😉

I’m still waiting for you to pay off your LAST bet you lost. Heck, you’ve even already admitted you lost, and you STILL refuse to pay up unless I DOX my RL identity to everyone.

You literally BEGGED for someone to bet you over Bolt vs. Model 3 production numbers, and even trash talked that Tesla fans wouldn’t pay up if they lost.

Now here we are, 6 months after you lost that $100 bet, and you want to bet AGAIN? Silly child.

Remind me again. What were the total number of Bolts that GM sold in the first 12 months of production, after they started production in Oct. 2016? What was the number of Model 3’s sold in the first 12 months?

Yes but $50k cars have very high lease rates also.

Especially Teslas, since they officially offer 0 “discounts” and Tesla screws customers on the application of the $7,500 (now $3,750) tax credit on a lease.

Tesla discounts all of their “New Inventory” cars based on age and mileage. Anybody can get a discount on a Tesla (even one with less than 50 miles on it) by simply purchasing from inventory.


It is only when you special order a Tesla to your custom specs that everybody has to pay full price. This has been true for years, and has been explained to you so many times it isn’t even funny. But hey, why would you let a little thing like facts get in the way of a good rant?

Please read the Tesla Quotes in the “Tesla Delivers 63,150 Model 3…” post.

Tesla states:
“More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.”

Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

Exactly. And Tesla hasn’t Popped the LEASING Demand Curve yet either.
This is Incredible without a Leasing program.

Apparently 3/4 of the cars sold were from new customers this quarter, so NO, the majority were not backorders reservations.

Kenneth, you may have missed Tesla press release that said more than 75% of the model 3 orders this month were not from people with reservations.

Total combined Tesla EV deliveries in the US in December 2018 is 32,600.

All Plug-In models of all brands combined should be higher than 50,000 in the US in December 2018 (for the first time ever in one single month).

6000 per week! Go Tesla go!

Math fail. About 4700 per week

25,250/31*7 = 5,701. If you’re going to call someone out, then at least get it right.

@reader, how did you get 4700?

Average of the quarter. Which is more accurate considering that Tesla push of deliveries that is more than production at the last month of the quarter.

We have yet to see a 5k/week on average production month.

Maybe in Q1 2019 we will finally get there and can start pushing toward 10k/week.

From Tesla press release 61,394 Model 3 produced in Q4 / 13 weeks = 4,723/wk average for the quarter.
Zoom’s 5,701 number is based on sales not production and it valid only if number of in-transit and inventory cars was the same at end of November as December. This is not true as we know Tesla worked hard to blow out all inventory, including demonstrator cars and kept sales stores open til mid-night Dec 31. Now I do expect the actual December weekly production to be higher than Oct and Nov, but not 5,700.

1,000 a day. Go Tesla go!

Would be nice, but unfortunately it doesn’t look like they are anywhere near that yet. Average for Q4 = 4,723/wk or 674/day and I’d be surprised if it is above 850/day now.

No, Tesla sold 90,700 vehicles in 92 days. That’s darn near 1,000 per day.

Unless it has changed, the last I knew Tesla did not build cars 7 days a week. So you can’t just divide weekly numbers by 7 to get daily numbers.

A possible explanation for today’s stock action – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsd8S5nys3g and this is mostly what happened today with around 150 Million and 2 negative twist on Tesla great stories to bring down the stock 7% in futures market

Maybe a good time to go Long on long options?

And yes, for some reason, this accomplishment means the stock took a nosedive. Tesla hit their own guidance, on top of it. Thanks, stock market.

I suspect a big swing later in the day when more people know of the official figure. But meh, there’s no worry no matter what happens today, because it’s a long term game.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

I suspect the price drop is the reason for the bigger hit.

Tesla lowers the price as production costs are reduced to continue getting more buyers. This isn’t a profit hit or a demand slow down. Tesla has always wanted to get as many EV’s on the road as possible.
Tesla is different than the oil companies and OPEC when a barrel of oil was over $140.00 a barrel and US oil companies fought to keep there subsides. They said they couldn’t survive without the 4 billion a year subside they were receiving and said that at $100 a barrel they would be losing money.
Tesla’s aim is to fight Climate Change and remain profitable so it can achieve the goal. They will succeed.

Total annual Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in 2018 is 139,782.

How many units of the Tesla Model 3 will they deliver in the US in 2019?


Maybe more, a lot of demand is still there beyond reservations, as suggested by the fact that 75% of new Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers. And SR version and leases will boost demand again. Maybe 200.000?

As for Europe, if every week of the year 3000 Model 3s really cross the ocean, beginning from March (maybe earlier but I try to be conservative) we have 3000*44 weeks = 132k. At least 120.000 should be delivered there.

Already 320k. I think is fair to say another 100.000 will be split between Canada, China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, UAE and other markets reaching a total of 420.000 deliveries.

Adding 100.000 units of Model S and Model X, Tesla will deliver 520.000 cars in 2019. A bit too optimistic? 480.000 should be within reach. If my prediction realizes we’ll have a nice 1 million Teslas driving in the world by the end of the year!

Tesla will definitely sell 500,000 Tesla’s worldwide in 2019.

Maybe. Possibly. Optimistically. Hopefully.

Nope. There’s no place for them to make that many. Production at Fremont is about maxed out, and Tesla’s own plans say the Shanghai Gigafactory won’t be producing in high volume until 2020 or 2021.

My guesstimate for worldwide sales in 2019 (all three models, not just the TM3) is 325,000-350,000, and almost certainly no more than 400,000.

Caveat: If Tesla installs TM3 production lines at Gigafactory 1, at Reno, then production and sales will be higher than my estimate. But I don’t see any other way for them to meet or exceed 400,000.

Elon said that they can get production to 7,000/week on the Model 3 plus 2,000/week on the S+X with mostly efficiency improvements. That’s a rate of 450,000 per year.

Their *current* rate is 346,220 produced/362,800 cars delivered based on Q4 so your 325,000-350,000 estimate suggests that Tesla downsizes in 2019. I don’t see that happening.

They sell that much model X or model S

I’d guess well over 150k, possibly 200k, for one simple reason: A lot of American consumers are just now learning that [1] you can buy a Real Car that’s 100% electric, and [2] there’s this company called Tesla that will be happy to sell you one or more of three different models.

People here keep talking about how well Tesla is doing without leasing, which is certainly a valid point. The most interesting thing to me is they’re doing it without advertising. You can’t watch TV in the US, including ad-supported streaming channels, without being carpet-bombed by car and truck ads. Yet Tesla just had this eye popping quarter without ads.

Fun image: Tesla runs a Superbowl ad. A Model S does the smoking, howling sideways slide to take its place next to an X, a 3, and a sheet-covered Y. Guy wearing a tux and a full-face helmet gets out of the S, pulls off the helmet to reveal (of course) it’s Musk, who says, “Do try to keep up.” It would be a bigger deal, by far, than the Apple 1984 ad. (Youngsters: Google it.)

What’s a Tesla?

Even if such a Video was just Fan Made, only on YouTube, and it was Gwen Shockwell Getting Out, and Elon walked over and said “Thanks for coming, Gwen, shall we Launch the BFR, now?” It would be just as much fun!

Either video cold be picked up by mainstream news channels, boosting its views!

You’re joking right?
Let’s bet double that. At least!

150k in the US would be a good result. I estimate ~300k production in 2019. Normally that would be 50% US, but they will favor overseas deliveries in Q1 and Q2 to satisfy pent-up demand for higher end versions. As such I’d closer to 130k US and 160k overseas, plus 10k of inventory build.

Total US sales will be a hard number to predict, because Tesla is intentionally shifting production to overseas markets, and supply to the US will be artificially limited by the need to sell in volume in overseas markets to make the opening of new markets for the Model 3 work logistically.

That of course won’t stop a ton of stupid comments all throughout 2019.

You can say that again. It’s endless and ridiculous. Be thankful there are about 200-300 comments every day that you don’t have to read, because they never make it through moderation. Pffft.

I could never be on your end of the business!! I couldn’t put up with all that. It is hard enough for me to keep my cool with just the ones that get through. LOL!!

Probably fewer Model 3 deliveries in the U.S. in 2019, because domestic demand for the higher (more expensive) trim levels has plateaued, whereas Tesla hasn’t even begun to tap the overseas market for the most expensive trim levels of the TM3 (Model 3). For the TM3, I expect Tesla to concentrate on oversea sales during 2019.

But, contrariwise: Tesla will be doing all it can to increase TM3 production. Personally I doubt we’ll see much of an increase, because I think the Fremont assembly plant is about maxed out, and there doesn’t seem to be any other place that Tesla can assemble the Model 3 during 2019. But I may be wrong; Tesla may install one or more full assembly lines at Gigafactory 1, at Reno.

(Some Tesla cheerleaders say Tesla will start TM3 assembly at Gigafactory 3, in Shanghai, this year. They are wrong. Tesla said the Shanghai assembly plant won’t achieve high production for 2-3 years. Tesla may do some “final assembly” in Shanghai, and will certainly want to produce TM3 battery packs there using Chinese battery cells, as soon as they can. But we won’t see TM3 glider or “body in white” production in Shanghai this year.)

191,000 YTD is more impressive.
And model 3 sales Still with NO LEASING available.
Tesla could easily DOUBLE Sales with Leasing.

I don’t know leasing I would think would bring Tesla short term gains at the expense of the long term gain. Tesla then has to sell thousands of used Tesla’s.

In all other automakers the finance division is a major source of profit, not loss.

Current auto dealers make money by selling formerly leased vehicles, often more profitable than the initial sale. As Tesla Corporation is also its own dealership, it will earn that money. The risk taken is if the used cars sell for less than the depreciated prediction—-and of all automakers Tesla has the least to worry about in that scenario. Imagine having huge inventories of unsellable P-950000 Machismo Man Ain’t Nothing But A Hound Dog Dirk Diggler Edition trucks in a recession.

For leasing there are startup cash flow issues—-you need to run subdivisions which can issue bonds and manage the cash flows and inventory of cars, but this isn’t rocket science. Essentially the main company sells the car to its finance division, which gets its cash from issuing bonds. Those bonds should be are non-recourse to the main company but are backed by assets (cars) and cash flows from the leases.

Once the upcoming bonds are repaid and refinanced, the financial outlook will be clearer and let the money people arrange it properly.

Dirk Diggler. UBUYGAS. LOL.

A direct leasing subsidiary can’t sell nearly enough bonds to pay full price for the cars. The parent company must make an equity contribution. And it must keep injecting more capital as long as the lease fleet grows.

Exactly leasing is there money making especially if they they ones themat get into the credit game. Collect interest and depreciation and then resell the car at higher market for use cars

Holy Cow! That’s amazing!!! I’m channeling Huell Howser right now. But keep on building the Super Charger Network because the future is coming quickly!

Amazing how a new company out of nowhere makes the safest, fastest, all new tech in a matter of a few years. The EV revolution has started because of one man! Congrats to Tesla/Space X. An Escalade costs $100,000 with old school tech vs a Model X for the same price with all new tech. I own 2017 Model X that if I bought one today is $7000 less expensive.

That obviously does not make sense and I would think you know it.

Pretty soon they’re going to be as common as Camrys. By my calculation, right now there are about 21,000 cars identical to my Black Model 3 with Aero wheels. With about 800 more coming off the line every week maybe it’s time to consider a few new colors, offer more wheel choices, and maybe even offer some other factory customization options.

Why would they do that or pull the leasing lever? They are in a unique position in the automotive industry: More orders than production capacity. Creating more demand is the last thing they want.

Almost like the aircraft behemoths. Years, not months, of backlog.

Yeah, I don’t see Tesla offering leases on the Model 3 in 2019. Too much demand in Europe, as well as other markets such as China and Australia, to satisfy, all without offering leases, which would lower Tesla’s quarterly income, right when it desperately needs cash to continue building more production capacity.

Tesla didn’t offer leases on the Model S until a few years after production started, and I expect to see the same pattern with the Model 3.

Would be interesting to see what would happen if they painted outside of California.

A red Audi made by the sneaky cheats of VW won’t even cost extra, but who wants to support them? Not me.

It would have been nice to know the Model 3 type breakdown or ATP. Headlines like this are not helpful:
Tesla shares plunge as price cuts signal a ceiling for costlier models
Tesla shares plunged after disappointing Model 3 deliveries and an across-the-lineup price cut prompted concerns that the carmaker may bump up against a ceiling for demand.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Not _really_ a demand problem. The problem is lowering production costs to allow sale of the SR, for which there is a lot of demand.
They haven’t release the SR yet.
Until the 2018Q4 ER we won’t know where they are on margin.
So, the market responded negatively to the high-spec demand and margin cut.

So…why cut pricing when you have such a “tremendous order backlog”? Why do these people a favor when you are in a position to really need the income (I’m thinking about the upcoming bond redemptions)?

You are right, there is a softening of demand, for high end versions. Tesla has exhausted the USA Model 3 reservation of people willing to pay $45k+ and now has to get the $35k version both profitable and into production. I thought they would be working hardest on getting M3 production to the 10k/wk goal and apparently they are struggling to get to 7k/wk. I now think they are focusing on reducing cost while keeping production near 7k/wk. Elon stated that they figured out how to significantly reduce the cost of packaging the batteries for the SR version, and I expect this to be available before the month is out.

I’m going to stick my neck out even further and add to that prediction. Tesla will discontinue the Medium Range version before introducing the Short Range version so if the MR is discontinued then expect SR after a couple of weeks.

I think only reservation holders can buy the 35k. If you look at the model S, they slowly got rid of the 40 and 60 kept the whole line a premium brand. The smallest they sell now is 75.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

The Model 3 is very different to the S and X. The S40 would have been a $50k car with relatively short range, so-so performance and no DCFC. For a long time

“I thought they would be working hardest on getting M3 production to the 10k/wk goal and apparently they are struggling to get to 7k/wk.”

There simply isn’t room at Tesla’s single assembly plant, in Fremont, for a run rate of 10k/wk. Elon hoped to get to that with his idea of high-speed touchless production lines, with robots working at eye-blurring speed.

Now that he’s been brought down (somewhat closer) to Earth on the subject, Tesla is no longer claiming it can do 10k/wk using only the Fremont assembly plant. Maybe they can get to a sustained rated of 7k/kw, but that will likely be the limit until they can get the Shanghai Gigafactory up and running, in 2020 or 2021.

The wild card here is that it’s possible Tesla may start Model 3 assembly at Gigafactory 1, at Reno. I won’t say it’s likely, but I think it’s a possibility. And if Tesla does that, then maybe it can get to 10k Model 3’s per week… or even more, and do that before the Shanghai Gigafactory is up and running.

One thing is certain: 2019 is going to be a very interesting year for Tesla and its fans!
🙂 🙂 🙂

They cut price in the US only. The main reason, IMHO, was so people can buy in Jan/Feb without feeling like a chump. The chump effect is a serious sales deterrent.

The second reason is because they have no more US backlog for $46k+ cars. They’ll send most Q1 and Q2 cars overseas, of course, but they can’t let the US side drop 75% or whatever. They need to keep all those new shipping and delivery hires reasonably busy.

Are you seriously surprised that an EV car maker is doing price cuts the instant the Fed Tax incentive starts to sunset?

This has been talked about literally for YEARS!!! The timing and amount of the price cuts (almost exactly half the amount of the drop in fed. incentive, and price cut only in the US) should be no surprise to anybody who has been paying attention.

Saying it has something to do with demand slowing, when we just saw record deliveries simply ignores years of history on discussion of the Fed incentive that led to predicting these price cuts years ago. Tesla is simply splitting the difference between itself and their customers for the reduced tax incentive.

Why are they doing this? Because it is the right thing to do for customers. Nothing to do with demand.

I don’t think this is a case of “right” or “wrong” about domestic (only) demand for the Model 3 plateauing, or “softening”; it’s more of a case of how you look at it.

The glass half full/ Tesla fan viewpoint: Tesla is lowering prices to partially (but not fully!) offset the dropoff in Federal tax credit, to prevent domestic demand from falling.

The glass half empty/ Tesla basher viewpoint: Demand for Tesla cars has fallen, and Tesla is trying to prop it up by lowering prices across the board.

Being a Tesla fan, of course I prefer the “glass half full” view.

The problem with the Tesla basher viewpoint is that they always, always want us to think Tesla is in trouble. But perhaps for the first time in its history, Tesla is now on solid ground financially speaking. It can afford to pick and choose which demand levers it wants to pull, which gives the company a cushion against disaster, and perhaps that gives Tesla more room to wait before pulling more demand levers.

At least, that’s how I see it.

Yep, really makes no sense. If that many people are lined up to give Tesla their money for a Model 3, a $2k price cut makes no sense, even with the fed tax credit phasing out (afterall, all the TSLAheads have said all along the tax credit doesn’t influence the vast majority of Tesla buyers). Only other explanation is demand is softening, so a price chop was in order to keep the orders coming in at rates Tesla wants.
Plus, as millions of Americans see their 401k’s tanking due to the orange assclown in the White House, many people are probably much more sensitive to 50k+ purchases these days.

Model 3 reaches lower incomes than the S and X, so it makes a difference, particularly since there are still anywhere from 75k to 100k people waiting for the base model because they can’t/won’t stretch to the MR.

Including the S and X in the discount is just a goodwill/marketing ploy. No matter how rich you are, everyone wants to think that they are getting a better deal.

If their financials continue to improve, I would not be surprised if they do it again starting July 1st.

“…the carmaker may bump up against a ceiling for demand.”

Analysts who say that are downright ignorant. They should be too embarrassed to call themselves “analysts”. Tesla hasn’t yet offered Model 3 leasing, nor has it put the Standard Range Model 3 into production. It hasn’t even made the $5k PUP (Premium Upgade Package) optional yet.

There are plenty of demand levers left for Tesla to pull.


over 32K for Tesla alone!
Hopefully the other makers did well too.
could we see the first month ever with over 50K of EVs sales

Oh new sales record means Tesla stock must drop… sigh.

Stock market needs to see profit numbers to convinced…. Again!

Missed production numbers and a $2k price cut out of nowhere indicating softening demand will spook investors usually.

It’s just buy on rumors, sell on news. It’ll happen again in the run up to their quarterly earnings call.

Almost 2x the yearly sales of the Leaf in just December for the Model 3. Time to wake up Nissan…..

It is interesting that the year-over-year sales for the Model S is almost unchanged – indicating only a very slight cannibalization of Model S sales by the Model 3 – and the Model X actually increased some.

I saw that, as well. It bodes well for the 3 and the Y.

Here’s hoping that model 3 will top the Camary in December 2018 sales!

Bell XS-1 is the world’s 1st jet to reach 1,200 km/h which is Mach-1 or speed of sound.

Tesla is the 1st company to sell 1,000 electric vehicles / day. A different type of record.

Excluding 2 mandatory holidays (Thanksgiving & Christmas), there are only 90 operational days in 2018-Q4 and Tesla sold more than 90,000 vehicles which averages to 1,000 / day.

And the big thrust is given by Model-3.
Congrats Tesla.

Musk’s historic achievement is very similar to Ford’s Model T of 100 years ago. People forget that Ford made many cars before the Model T, but they were mostly commercial or rich men’s toys. Ford and others killed off the horse and buggy within 10 years of the Model T. The same is happening to gas cars, which will be mostly gone (except for collectors and exotics) within 10 years. What critics fail to grasp: The Model S of 2013, is just 6 year old toddler. Within 10 years, the EV revolution will enter the teenager stage. The next generation of EVs will make most gas cars look like the horse: kept for racing and pleasure riding.

How much longer until they make the $35k Model 3?

Where’s the sales chart?

GM EV Sales: 4Q18/2018 Total
Bolt: 6212 18019
Volt: 5063 18306

Interesting to note that while Tesla/Elon has been referencing Model 3 production rates up to 7k/week for a while now, Tesla is still not even consistently hitting the 5k/week rates Elon said Tesla could hit by December 2017. Tesla produced 63,150 Model 3s in Q4’18, or 63,150/13 weeks = 4,857 Model 3’s average production. And the $35k Model 3 remains “in 3-6 months” purgatory….probably forever. Lol

As of 1/3/2019, no Model 3’s sold at the claimed price of $35,000. They have recently come down to a $45,200 true MSRP stripped. While I agree with the Model 3 pricing strategy, they should have been more truthful in their marketing. It does call into question earlier claims about Model 3 production costs. Being told the Model 3 was profitable at $35k, but was originally sold at over $50k smacked of salesmanship like a used car lot. In Q4, I received several contacts by Tesla including multiple telemarketing calls, trying to get me down for a sales meeting. So I also question the widely repeated theory the Model 3 is supply constrained. Why spend money calling people if you cannot make the cars fast enough? Telemarketing is not cheap.
Disclosure – I hold no position on TSLA. I did not receive a queue-based invite to configure a Model 3. By the time Tesla was actually selling Model 3’s to the public, the specifications of the Jaguar I-Pace were released so I purchased one.

Tesla salespeople are salaried – they are there and being paid whether they are engaging people in the showrooms or making phone calls. I doubt that Tesla hired, or contracted out, any telemarketers.

Fact check: the MR is not “stripped”. It still has the premium package as standard. As others have noted above, Tesla has many demand levers to pull, if they were, in fact, desperate.

The only real problem was that Musk was anticipating lower costs through automation. As it turned out, they were not able to go as far in automation as he had planned, and ended up having to hire more people. Therefore, the manufacturing costs are not, and may never be, as low as what Musk was planning on when the $35k price point was announced years ago.

That’s not to say that a base model won’t be profitable at $35k, it just means that it may not be as profitable at that price point.

It’s not lying, it’s not even a sleight of hand. It was a reasonable projection based on plans that turned out to fail.

If they called you, it is because you selected call by phone as your preferred method of contact in your profile. If you had selected email or text, you would have received emails or texts instead.

Your choice of communication is entirely up to you, based on what selections you made when you created your profile. Your profile setting choices does not mean Tesla is not supply constrained.

AFAIK, they had my phone number from my Day One Model 3 reservation form. I receive both emails and phone calls.
I normally do not release my phone #. I get very few calls, but a couple hundred emails daily.

By stripped, I am referring to the industry standard meaning of the term. Zero option if it pleases you. Base plus options if it that works.