Tesla Model 3 Reservation Holders Willing To Wait For Dual-Motor, AWD Version

Tesla Model 3

APR 8 2017 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 40

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

As we have explained before, even though the Model3Tracker website shows us only a fraction of total Tesla Model 3 reservation holders (8,763 registered reservists or 2.3% of the latest confirmed total reservations).  Still, the tracker is the only resource of its kind out there, and it paints an interesting picture of what people may be considering in regards to their Model 3, and an abrupt poll change this week, did just that.

Tesla Model 3

However at this point, it’s pretty safe to say that the majority prefer Tesla’s “D” (dual-motor all-wheel drive) models. This is because there are plenty of reasons to justify such a preference, the most notable of which are longer range and improved performance. According to Model3 Tracker, about 70 percent or respondents initially planned on opting for the dual-motor Tesla Model 3.

Fast forward to now, and Elon Musk, as part of a recent Tweetstorm, shared that the latter models will not come to production first, but rather the rear-wheel drive models will be the first out of the gate. Tesla is aiming to keep it simple at first, and for good reason.

However, it seems that some people were quick to change their tune and opt for the rear-wheel drive Tesla Model 3, if it means that their reservation will move up the list. Model3Tracker saw a sudden “spike” in respondents changing their options to rear-wheel drive, instead of the “D.” Despite this noticeable shift, of the 7,000 respondents, the vast majority is still willing to wait for the all-wheel drive variant.

It seems that Elon Musk was made well aware of people’s sentiment over this new information, due to a plethora of comments around the media segment. The CEO was fairly quick to respond that the AWD version could be in the hands of early reservation holders, prior to the end of 2017.

Paul Carter, Model3Tracker’s manager concluded:

“As it stands now, 29% are wanting Rear Wheel Drive. From the year end report, it stood at approximately 25%.” 

“The large majority of Model 3 reservation holders want the dual motor configuration and willing to wait for it.”

Source: Teslarati

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40 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Reservation Holders Willing To Wait For Dual-Motor, AWD Version"

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Bacardi

No surprised the overwhelming majority want AWD…Only issue may be waiting for it could result in not getting the tax credit…Also wonder how they’re structure the queue if you’re selected very early and decide to wait for AWD…

georgeS

yes Bacardi. The tax credit is the wild card.

Here’s a great article that explains it.
http://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev-credit-expiry-date-by-automaker-estimates/

It’s a tad more complicated than just hitting 200,000 mark and well worth a re-read IMO.

Inside EVs has the sweet spot pegged at the second and 3rd quarter of 2018 and that still looks reasonable to me.

I’m thinking that if you want the tax credit you do indeed need to order RWD.

Kdawg

At least with only RWD, there’s less to go wrong 😛

Bacardi

Yup, understood how it works (once 200K is achieved you still get the rest of the quarter and the entire following quarter) but we simply cannot predict what number you’ll be when Tesla calls on you to convert your reservation to a pre-order…Even if Tesla has a pretty significant M3 ramp up, we don’t know when they build AWD versions, will it be a 50/50 split in production between RWD and AWD? Lastly, sounds like there will be at least four types of AWD variants…We know there will be at least two battery sizes then non-P versions and P versions…Tesla historically has releases the P version first…Odds are incredibly high that if you want an AWD base battery or an AWD non-P, you’re not getting the tax credit…

Rich

Musk already said the P version may come a year later.

georges

Rich,
copy on the P version coming later.

I’m thinking, if you want an early car and the tax credit, you will need to order the big battery and AP….not sure about full autonomous.

For Model S, AP is 5K$ and I think fully autonomous is 3K$.

and going from 60 kwh to 75 is 6500$.

https://www.tesla.com/models/design

Rich

GeorgeS,
It’ll be interesting to see what options Tesla defines as the “well optioned” 1st wave. I’m ready for the final announcement where these details will be officially announced. July is too long to wait!

georgeS

Rich
I think we configure in June.

pjwood1

I wouldn’t be too hung up on “200k”, since the credit phases down and doesn’t cliff down to zero.

I think a lot of people will drop. Perhaps even more come in behind them, but there will be acceleration of those with reservations, my bet.

georgeS

pjwood,
Yes that’s what I meant
That was the point of the IEV’s article,
Subsidy quits after the end of the 200000 quarter plus 1 so could be 1 qtr or 2 after hitting 200,000.

I think IEV’s estimate in the article is pretty good.

They are saying Qtr 2 or 3 in 2018

Rich

Slight tweak.
Assuming the current administration doesn’t kill it, all reservation holders should be able to get the federal tax credit (maybe not the P version). The question becomes how many will get the full credit vs. the 50% credit (6 months unlimited sales after full credit expires) vs. the 25% credit (6 months unlimited sales after 50% credit expires).

Bacardi

You’re forgetting the Model S/X sales in which last quarter counted 25000+ or one eighth of the credit…Add a launch delay along with a slow ramp up…

Rich

Model S & X USA sales totaled 121,334 at the end of Mar. 2017. This is based on IEVs numbers.

You’re right, there are scenarios that will push people from one tax credit level to the next or possibly no tax credit. If Tesla cannot fulfill US reservation holders (except for Performance) by the time the 25% tax credit expires, Tesla’s quoted production ramp rate will have Severely failed.

Let’s take one of the more aggressive scenarios.
Tesla USA S & X sales hit 200K in Q4 2017
Full Fed. tax credits would expire at the end of Q1 (Mar. 31) 2018
50% Fed. tax credits would expire at the end of Q3 (Sept. 30) 2018
25% Fed. tax credits would expire at the end of Q1 (Mar. 31) 2019

If Tesla cannot fulfill USA reservations by the end of Q1 2019, something didn’t go wrong … something went severely wrong.

Michael Will

I will rather get it earlier without it than wait, we will use the awd model x for winter travel anyways, but since my reservation is probably in the end of the first 100,000 since I didn’t stand in line it may be a nonissue. I so can’t wait to drive a model 3 !

georgeS

Michael,

If you have a Model X then I’m surprised you are willing to get one of the initial production Model 3’s.

ANewHope

The thinking part of my brain tells me that RWD M3 with winter tires will be more than adequate for the vast majority of winters that drivers face (and if you get one of those once in a hundred year storms you anyhow should have been paying attention to the weather channel and shouldn’t be on the road driving), but part of me remembers driving combustion engines with RWD that were scary to drive in winter conditions (admittedly without high tech traction control…). So the feeling part of me leaves me hesitant to go RWD.

Four Electrics

My i3 with RWD is atrocious in the snow despite a 50/50 weight distribution; it’s just too light. The Model 3 won’t be as light, but will be lighter than my Model X, which is decent in the snow, but not amazing. Four wheels of traction will always be better than two.

I actually prefer the fun of RWD only, but not in the winter.

nix

The BMW i3 didn’t do very well compared to a RWD Tesla in controlled standardized wet road testing. There is definitely something more going on than just the RWD:

http://insideevs.com/bmw-i3-tesla-model-s-nissan-leaf-vw-e-mitsubishi-miev-play-water-video/

leafowner

Move to Atlanta where we get snow once every other year and everything shuts down so you do not need to deal with it.

I would have gotten the dual motor if it was available — but certainly it is not needed for me.

Rich

Buying and then storing another set of tires and having to switch out the tires 2x year sounds like a hassle.

Mikael

I am one of those who don’t want RWD. FWD only at a cheaper price than AWD would have been my prefered choice, paying for AWD would be my second best choice.

LOL

+1 Non-professional drivers are responding intuitively correctly in dangerous road situations when having FWD. Every country has 95-97% of non professional drivers and for each automaker FWD should be their foremost offering.

William

I will always prefer AWD only for the purpose of regen and range. Any traction benefit, on or off road, is just pure Tesla icing (the sweet kind) on the Model 3 cake!

Worth the wait, no matter what!

I have no reservations against RWD. Our experience with our Model S 60 is just great, that little more range AWD gets is not worth a thought, the difference in traction is pretty much only noticeable uphill in winter conditions, and our RWD is way more silent (with AWD you can always clearly hear the front motor, however in our RWD it’s always dead silent in the cabin). So is it worth several thousand bucks extra? I’d say only if you are after max performance and don’t mind the extra costs.

Mister G

I just want fast acceleration without the toxic tailpipe lol

Bojan

For me at least, AWD doesn’t really justify the cost. I am one of those potential buyers in the market for an affordable EV, though, so I have a really small options budget.

Where I live, it snows maybe twice each winter and the roads, at least the ones I drive on, get cleared of snow quickly.

The range increase from AWD is rather small, if that were important to me then I’d get the larger battery option instead.

In addition to the larger cost, AWD comes with some other trade-offs. As I understand it, having that front motor eats into the size of the frunk, then there’s the increased noise that others have mentioned. Those are all factors that are more important to me than the acceleration of the car.

Waiting

Good, enlightening responses so far.

Traction?? Living in Phoenix for the past 48 years, I don’t need AWD for traction. I don’t plan to take road trips in the winter so I shouldn’t need AWD for any road trips I have planned. I grew up in the Chicago area so I fully understand the weather and why anyone living in that kind of environment would want AWD!

I was considering AWD for extra range but I agree with what BOJAN said, the few extra miles of range is not worth the cost. Not to me.

A shout out to TESLA BARGAIN for letting us know how quiet the cab is with RWD. I didn’t know that and that is something I really want…a quiet cab.

And lastly, the tax credit. For me it is purely icing on the cake.

I’ve burned fossil fuels all my life and have done my share of polluting this planet. It is long past the time to do something about it.

pjwood1

The RWD Model S has so much space it can replace an SUV. I would look at the AWD frunk, before being so sure that matching a small Model 3 trunk, in back, with next to nothing in front is going to be a good idea.

georgeS

@pj,
front drive motor assy eats into frunk space in the MS. Makes me like my RWD and in Az don’t need anyway.

but I now have the hots for it it would add a fun new direction. ….but I’m still not keen on an early car. I could milk another 3.5 years out of my 2012 but I want auto pilot.

Roy_H

Looks like about half to three-quarters of all reservation holders should be able to get the tax credit. The purpose of the tax credit is to allow manufacturers to ramp up production to take advantage of the ecttheyteconomies of mass production

PK

As a former owner of multiple Subarus I really enjoyed driving their AWD. And as an Ontarian I don’t have to worry about the federal tax credit. So I’m absolutely willing to wait to get the AWD version.

WHEN YOU BUY A TESLA MODEL 3 CAR WITH A LIMITED BUDGET AND INTENDED TO USE IT FOR A LONG TIME, AS THIS WILL YOUR OWN FRUSTRATION,IF YOU CANNOT HARDWARE UPGRADE IT TO AWD AFTER BUYING RWD??? This might force many early reservation holders to skip turning their reservations into orders until after the AWD option is made available because TM(AWD)3D will surely be more efficient in achieving higher Range on a single charge given the same Battery capacity in whatever Battery configuration.

Slotman1

Stop buying all the rwd models so some of us awd people can get tax credit too

Slotman1

I have a budget too ,but this will be my only car I will get before I pass away

RM

Ship Tesla’s to U.S. as usual until 199,999 is reached. If before Dec 31st, ship the rest to Canada and rest of the world for the remainder of the year.

Problem solved. Congrats Canada. 🙂

TomArt

I think it is a given that Musk will play the production game to the hilt, considering how Tesla plays around with production each quarter in order to make good sales numbers (emphasize global markets that have long delivery times in the first two months, then flood the US market in the third month).

I think it is reasonable to assume that Musk will make sure that the 200k Tesla sold (delivered) in the US will be at the beginning of a quarter.

Murrysville EV

I’ve only ever wanted RWD. But I am interested in more battery and the glass roof.

Mitesh Damania

You guys are missing the point on AWD. All 4 wheels are used to brake and regen on dual motors. Would you rather bake on 2 wheels or four? Also tire wear will be more even on acceleration and deceleration.

Scott Franco

Buy a freaking model S if you want AWD. Rear is fine for M3.

slotman1

not for me!!!