Tesla Model 3 Production Tracker Zips Up Towards 2,500 A Week

Red Tesla Model 3 driving

APR 10 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 58

It’s been a tough road for Tesla Model 3 production, but it seems the floodgates are starting to open.

We can only hope that there are no more setbacks or delays, as everything points to Tesla Model 3 production finally being almost where it should be at this time.

Related: Does The New Tesla Model 3 Tracker Jibe With Our Sales Estimates?

Yes, there was a time when CEO Musk estimated numbers way in excess of the 2,500-a-week guidance, with a timeline much ahead of now. However, for some time now, the story has been that Tesla would hit 2,500 Model 3s produced per week by the end of Q1.

Just before the quarter came to a close, Musk sent out an email to employees stating the 2,000 Model 3s per week seemed imminent. Much to the automaker’s satisfaction, that number was, in fact, achieved. Tesla provided Q1 global sales results on April 3, 2018.

The automaker set a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2018, with a production total of 34,494, of which 9,766 were Model 3s. Model 3 deliveries for Q1 hit a whopping 8,180.

All-in-all, Tesla delivered more EVs for the quarter than any other automaker in history, as well as setting the record for the month of March (estimated at over ~10,000 U.S. deliveries).

Bloomberg recently joined the Tesla Model 3 production tracking game with its own Model 3 Tracker. At first, it was hard to know exactly how successful it might be since the model relies primarily on VINs. But, as we previously pointed out, the system seems to be pretty accurate.

At the end of the quarter, Bloomberg’s Tom Randall Tweeted about just how successful the model has become:

After Q1 sales were in, the team calibrated the data with the model:

Now, after just one week, Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker is showing about 2,400 cars produced per week. Randall says that the model will prove even more accurate going forward since it now has an additional validation point.

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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58 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Tracker Zips Up Towards 2,500 A Week"

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Another Euro point of view

I wonder how will Tesla combine that increased production with the equally important goal to safeguard consumers best interest in keeping under the 200k figure of cars sold in the US at least till 7/1/2018 ? By selling all of the Model S & X Q2 production outside of the US ? I do not think that selling some M3 in Canada will allow Tesla to achieve that goal. I would not be surprised for Tesla to stock a good part of their Q2 production and make massive sales in Q3 (if that complies with the spirit of the law).

Vexar

Yeah, I think that is out the window, EuroDude. Don’t bank on it, OK?

menorman

Canadians has already reported getting configuration invites months ahead of schedule, so they’re almost guaranteed to be shifting some demand around. They’ll probably also send some to Mexico and other international destinations and as you surmised, ship a record number of S/X vehicles to international buyers too. A 2500/week rate is nothing to sneeze at, but if they can be cranking out double that by start of Q3, that’s a lot more happy people.

pjwood1

Exactly. Rented lot space near my closest Tesla store has sat vacant. It won’t, come June. “In transit”, and “inventory” will be ways to avoid 200k in Q2. Especially in Model 3’s limited, high demand, configurations.

With ~2,500/wk M3, MS and MX production, and only about ~25k tax credits left, arm-chairing production, domestic/foreign delivery, inventory, and foreign/domestic in-transit is gonna get pretty interesting.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

“Unfortunately, delivery of your will be ‘delayed’ ;). We are extremely confident that the delay will be resolved by July 1st 12:00:00.00000am. ;)”

Prad Bitt

How to turn a good news into a bad one.

JoeInTheUK

Its not necessary to comply with the spirit of the law, just the letter

John Doe
They must keep working hard to produce as many as possible. Gain as much capital as possible. They have to get funds for Model Y, the truck assembly line, the new Roadster assembly line. Takes a lof of time, tooling and equipment. They will also have to kill the debt as soon as possible. Since the credits don’t apply to me, I’ve little interest in it – but they could of course start to export cars to Europe… and maybe be quick about it before some trade war starts to escalate in a new direction. They could probably sell 75% of the Model 3 in Europe. I’m just not sure what specs are ordered the most. I would guess the cheapest model would be in highest demand. I’m not sure Tesla makes enough profit with the promised price on the cheap model. We have preordered a Model 3 at work, and was given a date for delivery in mid to late 2019.. so I guess Tesla will continue to produce for the US market first, and maybe add high spec cars around the world after that, before they offer the cheaper models. Sooner or later, everybody will reach the tax… Read more »
Ziv

If Tesla does hit 2500 3 produced a week relatively soon, it will be hard for them to push enough sales out of the US to save tax credit in the Q4. If they do get to 2500 produced this month that means they will be delivering 2500 a week by the end of May/early June. They would then need to move a lot of 3’s, S’s and X’s to Canada and would probably need to start sending 3’s to Europe’s assembly plant in Tilburg for European sales.
I am kind of torn on this. I want Tesla to sell a boat load of cars, both here and in Europe, but I also think that they would benefit a great deal from having the full credit in Q4 of this year.
I think Tesla has less than 1 chance in 4 of keeping the credit through Q4. They are building up production fast enough that the shift of sales abroad would be too hard to do without taking a significant hit on profit.

Another Euro point of view

Yes, looks like they will bust the 200K limit this quarter. Tesla is probably lobbying hard to have the $7.5k rebate extended so this could at the end not be a problem at all.

windbourne

Nope.
Tesla/musk are pushing to end all subsidies, including on oil. Sadly, the far righties love their subsidies, while gripping about all others.

Prsnep

Do you have a source for this claim? Not saying I don’t believe you, just seems counterproductive.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

C’mon dude, just google it…

Politicians want to cut the subsidies…
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/609312/the-us-government-might-cut-its-7500-subsidy-for-electric-cars/

….and when was the last time, if EVER, was it brought up to cut the sloppy Petrol subsidies????

Prsnep

I see. It’s kind of convenient now that Tesla has nearly sold 200k cars in the US and they wouldn’t have benefited as much as other manufacturers from the subsidy’s continuation.

Elon doesn’t want the credit extended. He’s fine letting it expire.

Asak

A mistake, IMO. Not that it’s going to be extended regardless by this Congress.

Mark.ca

+1
It’s in Tesla’s interest for the credit to be axed now since they will run out anyway but that’s definitely bad news for ev adoption. Way too early to pull out the iv.

yves laurin

‘ Tesla is probably lobbying hard to have the $7.5k rebate extended so this could at the end not be a problem at all.’

With Trump as your president forget it

scott

Just give Dumpster Fire a few billion for his border wall if he agrees to extend the tax credit past 200,000 vehicles.

Alonso Perez

I bet they manage to do it. The hit would be much greater from losing Q4 full credits, than from storing or exporting a few thousand cars in Q2.
Remember, in Q4 they will be able to take the credit for any quantity they make, and by that quarter they will be able to make a lot of cars per week.

Adam H.

Once the second production line is running, Tesla will ideally be producing 5,000 Model 3s/week at the beginning of Q3. They will be in a fantastic position to maximize their production before and while the tax credit is phasing out.

There has been less analysis on Gigafactory status, but anecdotal evidence says Tesla is making a LOT of powerwalls and powerpacks. I wonder if they have the current production capacity for industrial and automotive applications of 21700 batteries? Not throwing shade, genuinely curious.

pjwood1

I’m w/Alonso. Tesla has the working capital to park a bunch of cars, and is smart enough to time the release of its budget Model 3 (35k) with access to the credit.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla still needs to finish/design portions of the 35k car. The budget interior, without motorized steering wheel, leather and power seats, etc., represents changes no one should sneeze at. When I think of their past over-sights, it is this kind of development short-fall I would not rule out.

Knut Erik Ballestad

They could even more easily send a couple thousand M3’s per month to Norway – no ‘detour’ via Tilburg assembly plant needed to evade import taxes here 🙂

Already, the MS and MX goes directly from the US to Norway production/assembly-wise.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Yes, they’ll do that because they really appreciate blah blah blah Norway whatever blah.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“If Tesla does hit 2500 3 produced a week relatively soon, it will be hard for them to push enough sales out of the US to save tax credit in the Q4.”

No, not hard at all. That’s what is going to happen.

The full tax credit does not expire until the end of the 2nd quarter after the end of the quarter in which the 200,000 sales mark is passed.

Tesla will pass that mark sometime in the current (2nd) quarter, so the full tax credit will last until the end of 2018. The credit will go to half starting 1 Jan 2019. Barring a major disaster at Tesla, there doesn’t seem to be any doubt left about this.

(Credit to WadeTyhon for crunching the numbers, several weeks ago.)

https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/model-3-production-ramping-up.404/page-4#post-5122

Ziv

I hadn’t seen anyone say that until recently and it is completely different from the illustration that has been on the Federal Tax Credits for All-Electric Vehicles page that has been on the fueleconomy dot gov page for the last 7 years.
We can believer our interpretation of the verbiage or the governments own example.

” 200,000th vehicle sold Feb 12, half credit starts July 1, quarter credit starts January 1st of following year. ” Paraphrased a bit, but the meaning is clear. If Tesla sells 200k before July 1st, the half credits start October 1st of 2018.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

WadeTyhon

Yes, if Tesla hits 200,000 in Q2, then the full credit would end October 1st.

There was an article posted on Inside EVs a few weeks ago that could have been misunderstood. I think Pushmi-Pullyu might have read it to mean ‘2 quarters’ after rather than the ‘next quarter’ after.

Nix
Tesla has a 100% chance of doing it if they choose to do it, and are fine with holding cars for delivery. Which by the way, IS THE INDUSTRY STANDARD for new cars. When a car company is getting ready to launch a new car, or a new model year, or a new facelift, or a new major option package, they launch production and then put a hold on delivery and display that each dealership is required to honor. They may even build up a couple of month’s worth of inventory that is then stored at ports and in dealer secondary lots until the hold is lifted. For example, the first full production Bolts for customers came off the assembly line in October 2016. It wasn’t until mid-December that these were actually delivered to customers at a press event, followed by a larger number of sales later that month. GM didn’t stop building between Oct and Dec. They stockpiled those units for later delivery. And it isn’t just GM or just the Bolt. This is actually how much of the automotive industry works: 1) Start production 2) Stockpile cars 3) Have a major press event releasing the vehicle 4) Release… Read more »

Are Their lines even tooled to produce the European Model 3? The charge plug is different…

lo

Australia has the Euro charge plug – yet Ausi Model s and x don´t come from Tilburg.

tony Konte

Profit? are you serious

CDAVIS

Tesla Model 3 will be King Kong of INSIDEEVs Q2-18 Sales ScoreCard.

By this time next year seeing a Model 3 in the wild will be as common as seeing a Model S/X.

Will be interesting to see if once upcoming Model Y goes into volume production if it knocks Model 3 down to 2nd place.

windbourne

In fact, I suspect that America will jump to the lead on buying EVs. Then add in MY and trucks, and ford, GM, and dodge are then in trouble.

menorman

They already are, they just don’t know it.

Asak

Yeah, I guess we’ll know in 2023 or so when the Model Y is actually out.

The mainstream auto-manufacturers are not remotely in trouble. Tesla can never make enough cars to displace them. I’m not sure people understand just how piddly 200,000 car sales are in the scheme of things. It’s great for an electric car, and perhaps enough for the other manufacturers to take notice, but it’s not remotely enough to actually threaten the auto industry in any way.

Gasbag

“Tesla Model 3 will be King Kong of INSIDEEVs Q2-18 Sales ScoreCard.”

If that is so then Q3 they will be Godzilla. I wouldn’t be surprised if they take a breather in late May or early June. That combined with increased shipments to foreign countries and stockpiling 10kvehicles should allow them to finish the year with full tax incentives for customers. With the stockpile being recognized in Q3 and Q3 resuming March to 5k per week Q3 would be huge.

Delta

From now on, every second EV sold will be a Tesla.

Janey

Got my Model 3. Love it!
Can’t “wait” for the Y!

Nix

Congrats!! Good to hear of more deliveries!

“Can’t “wait” for the Y!” — LOL! gonna have to wait!!

Kbm3

Bloomberg tracker was laughable. They were estimating a production rarte of 1100/week the day Tesla announced they had just produced 2000 in the last week. This is a huge error. The model’s filtering was too strong to respond quickly enough in a fast ramp.

There quarter total was only accurate because they overestimated January and February.

Nix

The short term weakness of their methodology is also their method’s long term strength. Because it self-corrects for earlier errors from prior weeks.

It is true that their estimates for any given week will absolutely be very inaccurate. Their method simply fails like you said.

But it makes up for it in the long term, because they aren’t simply estimating a week at a time, without a feedback loop in their data. Because of the feedback loop in their methodology, if they are high for a few weeks, the data self-corrects in later weeks.

The result is accurate data at the quarterly level. Which is what their readers care about.

SJC

2000+ per week is HUGE production for a small company. It took them since July 2017 but they got there, now they need to keep quality and worker morale up.

Chris O

Tesla’s ramp up is actually pretty good since January. Looks like Tesla is basically 6 months behind on a target that nobody including Elon Musk ever considered realistic anyway.

All in all not bad at all.

Ron M

President Xi talked last night about lowering Tariffs for autos sooner than later. He didn’t specify but; I bet he’s means for BEV’s. He’s serious and the people want a clean environment. I think Bolt, Leaf and Tesla will end up with zero % tariffs by the end of the year. Maybe sooner.

Mike W

Day 1 reservation holder, non-previous owner, Atlanta…got the invite to configure last week. Not bad…almost 2 years to the day.

TwoVolts

Congratulations. I expect that you will be thrilled when you take delivery soon.

In some ways, that 2016 Model 3 event seems like it wasn’t that long ago. Just imagine the dominant position Tesla is likely to enjoy two years from now.

Nix

To put these numbers in proper perspective, here are the top “Small and Midsize Luxury” car sales for last month according to goodcarbadcar:

Infiniti Q50 5,085
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4,984
BMW 3-Series 4,845
BMW 5-Series 4,397
Mercedes-Benz E / CLS-Class 4,024
Acura TLX 4,014
Lexus ES 3,938
Audi A4 3,296

Even at the current 2,000/week, the Model 3 instantly rockets to the top of the list. Tesla has no problems mass producing the Model 3. They are already doing it, and doing it better than any other car maker selling small and midsize luxury cars in the United States. The only problem they have is hitting hugely ambitious targets in the exact month they were targeted. But actual success itself is already in hand.

morrisg

Gee, lots of speculation about when Tesla hits 200k US sales, but everyone seemed to think 2,500 / week was where the ramp would go flat until the first day of Q3. No chance of that. The ramp will continue to go up, then flat when a problem occurs, then up when the problem is fixed, rinse, repeat.

I think there is no chance Tesla will finagle the deliveries to push the magic 200k mark into Q3. Sorry folks, but higher production numbers is more important than whenever the tax credit runs out. If you want it to last longer, then write your Congressional representative. GM and Nissan are up for extending these tax credits, too.

Adam H.
“Sorry folks, but higher production numbers is more important than whenever the tax credit runs out” Let’s do some math, shall we? For the sake of argument, assuming a 20% gross margin, Tesla clears $10,000 on each $50,000 Model 3 sold, no matter what country in which they are sold. If Tesla eclipses the 200,000 mark prior to July 1, they will arguably have to reduce price by $7500 an entire quarter sooner as competitors will have a significant price advantage due to their tax credits not yet expiring. Tesla will be selling a $42,500 car with a $2,500 gross margin, or less than 6%. In your theory, Tesla gets three months of sales at production rates of 5000/week. If they can hold the 200,000th sale until July 1st when production will be running at 5,000/week, they can sell 20,000 Model 3’s a month domestically at full price for an additional three months. If you consider the value of the tax credit as a vehicle markup, 20,000 vehicles x 13 weeks (3 months) x $7500 = $487,500,00. Simple put, Tesla would pass up an additional half billion dollars in revenue. Now back to my original point. Tesla makes a gross… Read more »
Scott Franco

Orrrr, they can just figure with 500,000 orders, they will have backlog for quite some time, and can afford some attrition to the list, which is going to happen anyways, with people getting impatient.

I’ll go you one better. They produce a few 10,000 model 3s at $35,000 then announce a price increase.

Asak

And then go bankrupt as they exhaust the pent up demand and are selling a car that is so expensive that few are willing or able to buy it. If a $50K+ car could move hundreds of thousands of units they wouldn’t have had to make the Model 3, the Model S already filled that role.

M3 owned, Spark leased; Niro TBD

Actually Tesla gets none of that Federal Tax Credit back to them. It goes to the buyer’s tax credit. Tesla sees the exact same revenue. The revenue math is the same for Tesla (but not for the buyer).

To take it further, it behooves Tesla to simply run full steam and sell every single First Production car it can and run through all 450,000 reservations people willing to to that as quickly as possible — then move onwards to the Dual Motors which it will have a continued captured audience since there is really no alternative EV to that.

That is how Financial Elon would maximize Tesla’s earnings.

Fred Worth

Telsa indirectly collects the tax credit, it lets them keep prices higher.

Mark.ca

So is everyone else.

Fred Worth

Deferring sales a few weeks and getting to sell and additional 60-100k cars in Q4 with the rebate is a FAR smarter decision.

Which is why Elon will be pushing sales into Canada and filling the pipe at the end of Q2 and Q3 will be a monster month

Scott Franco

Got my invite to configure today, stood in line at 10am on mar31. Getting basic black, standard wheels, premium package, autopilot. Here we go!

Mark.ca

So they started configs for the short range too? Delivery estimate?

EJ

While this is an impressive development, it adds more disappointment for customers waiting for the promised $38k basic version. It is now clear that they will never get the tax credit, and that Tesla never had serious intentions to offer an affordable mass market car that could make a huge environmental impact. Tesla reserved all benefits for their most affluent customers. I expect large sales in the next quarters, but when affluent buyers needs are fulfilled, followed by many recalls, there will be a dramatic decline in sales numbers and order cancellations.