Tesla Model 3 Production Heating Up As Q3 Ends

Tesla Model 3


Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 Deep Blue Metallic

Tesla was aiming for the production of 1,500 Model 3 vehicles this September, which has now officially come to an end. How did the automaker fare?

For Tesla to have actually delivered 1,500 Model 3s this quarter would be an epic feat. However, to have manufactured them isn’t quite as big of a deal. Especially if the automaker is going to live up to CEO Elon Musk’s estimates of some 5,000 Model 3 sedans per week built in the month of December.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 – Interior

Sources familiar with activities surrounding Model 3 production told Electrek that the automaker worked out some early issues and has since upped production speed. This is to be expected since the “production hell” that Musk spoke of, as well as the S-Curve, called for slow, methodical manufacturing at first, as the automaker would still be working through potential issues. This would then be followed by a gradual “speed up” process, which would become exponential in nature as bugs were worked out.

There are still some real questions, however. When did Tesla “up” production? How many Model 3 vehicles were built in September? How many cars were actually delivered?

Normally, we don’t ever get clear-cut answers to such questions. Tesla doesn’t give out such specifics. New reports have shown Model 3s with VINs over 1,000 at this point (which doesn’t exactly inticate production levels). According to Electrek, VINs up to #1134 have been registered with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

However, this month is a ‘once-in-a-model’s-lifetime’ opportunity, as Tesla’s most basic sales information is given just after each quarter’s end.  Specifically, the company guides to net total global deliveries and production of each model.  And because we know a couple things already:

  • approximately 100 Model 3 deliveries were July and August and,
  • all Model 3 deliveries in Q3 will be in the US,

It becomes a simple math exercise.

Source: Electrek

Categories: Tesla

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23 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Heating Up As Q3 Ends"

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I will be happy with production of 1000 model 3 in September,it is too easy to sabotage model 3 supply chain by fossil fuel and ICE industries. Believe me.

Agreed. If Tesla can hit 5,000/week by end of year, I don’t think it matters what the 2017 ramp looks like until that point. IMO, even 3,000/week by end of year would be a good accomplishment.

I think Tesla has 3 major deliverables
1) Adjust sales so 200K USA sales isn’t reached until Q1 2018
2) Increase the production rate to maximize USA customers receiving the full tax credit.
3) Ship the base model 3 in mass starting Jan. 2, 2018.

Maybe they are gaming the system so that they can go gangbusters when they reach the point where the federal tax credit starts to go away.

I’m sure that figures large in Tesla’s current business strategy. However, don’t forget that Tesla can ship cars overseas or sell them in Canada to delay when they go over the 200,000 milestone. Only U.S. sales count toward that limit.

Great point about sending elsewhere.
Im actually kind of surprised that they are not doing that so far, but, I guess that it makes sense to keep it local to shake out bugs.
Once they have the bugs out, they might want to sell to Europe and Canada rather quickly. Then once they are up to 10,000 / week, then hit America hard and push those through.
After all, if they are getting tax breaks, I’m guessing that means more options will be ordered.

I think it would be nice if Elon could take ‘Guidance’ numbers from a figure = to about 80% of his Optimistic calculations! That would him some ‘Breathing Room’ to Show a surprising excess above ‘Guidance’ during Quarterly Report time! Or is doing something like that ‘Illeagal’ for a Public Company?

As far as I know, VINs over 1,000 have been “registered” but not seen in the wild. My X VIN was registered for at least a month before production; I’m not sure that means much.

So far, the highest VIN seen is in the low 500s.

Note that the 500 VIN was seen in the factory parking lot–so it may not yet have been delivered.

My understanding is that Tesla assigns a VIN number when the order is put into the production queue. So yes, a VIN number can be assigned long before it actually rolls out of the factory, especially if it has to sit around waiting for a custom paint job or one of the more rare combinations of interior finishes.

With the limited options available for the Model 3, I don’t expect that to happen often, unless it’s a custom job for a top Tesla exec or board member.

The Model X (that you definitely DO NOT OWN — stop the trolling BS) has very different VIN number processing than the Model 3. With the Model S/X vehicles, there are thousands of configuration options, and a VIN can be put on hold waiting for some specific option to be available. The S/X are also sold in multiple global markets.

The current Model 3 that can be purchased right now is the exact opposite. Buyers have few choices (basically paint and wheels) otherwise everything is the same. So no VIN holds for options.

The S/X also goes through global market shifts, where Tesla builds cars for different markets at different point in each quarter. This can affect VIN order and add delays. But the Model 3 is currently US only. No delays due to targeting deliveries in some other global market.

So no, you can’t compare X to 3 delivery speeds or VIN pace. It is like saying applesauce and orange juice comes from the same company, so applesauce and orange juice must be packaged and sold exactly the same way.

It should be fairly easy for Tesla to get that many out the door. They are just test/development cars going to employees. Quite different from shipping to John Q. Public.

Some interesting tid bits from the Electrek article:

“Among the early production issues, Tesla had to replace battery packs on Model 3 produced in July due to corrections on welds and it also had to replace ground terminal bolts on Model 3 produced in August.”


Thanks for the link, George! I wish InsideEVs had covered that article. Lots to discuss there.

It certainly was wise of Tesla to limit sales to those it could put a gag order on with an NDA. Tesla certainly didn’t need all that negative press and social media coverage of early production problems in cars delivered to regular customers, such as happened with the Model X. Well, it happened with Tesla’s earlier models too, but people were not putting Tesla under a microscope back then like they are now.

When exactly will Tesla publish the quarterly deliveries ?

Generally in the past it has been within 48 hours after the old quarter’s expiry – so in this case, should be no later than Monday (Oct 2)

…as always, we will have the numbers, statement and all the breakdown behind it up immediately.

Or maybe Tuesday, since Today (October 1st) is a Sunday!


the 200k limit was just a dumb idea, that is one reason why other car makers waited, it should have been the first million or something for any manufacturer. its not fair for say volkswagen first electric car in 2018 to get a discount for 200k models.

Maybe Trump can re-message this rebate program to be ‘More For American Companies’, or simply take the Total number of Mfg’s that currently sell in USA Market, multiplied by 200,00, and say, those rebates are open to all, but first come, first served! When they are gone, they are gone! No Brownie points for being Slow!

The poorly defined Trump tax plan is a plan to wholesale eliminate every tax incentive and tax break possible in exchange for lower base tax rates.

The $7500 is a tax incentive. I would be shocked if Trump did anything to improve it. Quite the opposite.

Trump’s plan is not his. It is grover norquest. And he is NOT kill off breaks/deductions. He is simply lowering the rates esp. for the rich, and then playing a few games with breaks/deductions.

This is one of the WORST ideas going.
Hopefully, it dies.
It is long past time to remove all tax breaks/deductions/exemptions and then go with a simple progressive tax rate that starts right at anybody with a livable wage (just 1%), and then goes up to say 20-25%.
However, the real key, needs to be having ALL INCOME rated the same.
100K of Inheritance? Pay X.
100K of gains? Pay X.
100K of wages or Salaries? Pay X.

Actually, that’s not a bad idea. To keep anybody from crying foul, I’d leave the existing 200K allotment given to each manufacturer untouched. But I’d say they should open another 1 million “wild card” refunds that can go to any manufacturer that has exceeded their 200K. To pay for it, just eliminate ALL of the 50% and 25% rebates that were supposed to follow after each manufacturer hit 200K units.

come again?
Each manufacturer has 200K worth of vehicles. Sadly, it applies to hybrids as well as EVs.
BUT, these car makers CHOOSE to apply the majority of their 200K tax breaks to hybrids, rather than real EVs.

So, as far as the rest goes, that is their problems.

Put 1134 into your calculator, turn it upside down. What does it spell? Coincidence? The joke may be on us. Coincidence that Musk said they’re in, “Production ‘Hell'”?