Tesla Model 3 Production Might Hit 5,000 Per Week Soon

1 month ago by Eric Loveday 171

Tesla Model 3

Might is not the same as has, but there seems to be some indication that Tesla will soon be ramping up Model 3 production by a significant amount.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 Production

A couple months back, we learned that at least one supplier was told by Tesla to cut back on production of a certain (or perhaps some) Model 3 parts, most likely gears and axles. Now, it seems a reversal order has been given by the automaker.

In was back in October when we reported that Hota Industrial Mfg. Co had been told by Tesla to reduce supplies of certain Model 3 parts by some 40%. The reduction was supposed to begin this December. Here’s how it was reported:

“Shares of the parts maker dropped nearly 9 percent after the Economic Daily News reported, citing Hota Chairman Shen Kuo-jung, that Tesla had told the firm orders would be cut to 3,000 sets per week from 5,000 sets starting December, due to a “bottleneck” in the production of Model 3.”

“Tesla may delay scheduled weekly shipments of 10,000 parts in March by a few weeks until May or June.”

Now, a new report out of Taiwan suggests a complete reversal. Hota is now saying that Tesla increased demand for the parts in question back up to 5,000 units per week sometime this month.

With virtually no forward notice though, Hota may not be able to meet this increased demand. Hota Chairman Shen Guorong says the supplier is working around the clock now in a race to fulfill the newly raised volume. Parts are even apparently being shipped out by all means possible, including by air, which is not a common method for delivery of bulky automotive parts.

Taiwan media is further reporting that other suppliers have noted increased demand for parts from Tesla for the Model 3, so maybe production will bust wide open soon.

Source: Money.udn  via Electrek

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171 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Production Might Hit 5,000 Per Week Soon"

  1. bro1999 says:

    Hopefully this supplier isn’t taking shortcuts to meet the number of parts being ordered.

    Has the first non-employee 3 been delivered yet?

      1. bro1999 says:

        Ok, nice story, but that seems to be a 1-off exception. So that’s the only one to date? Have the “floodgates” opened, so to speak?

        1. WadeTyhon says:

          Not that I’m aware of… >_<

          https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-non-employee-deliveries-commence-next-week/

          The guy who prompted this story posted an update and said his delivery been delayed. But that according to Tesla it is currently in production.

          “They did not deliver today or last Thursday as originally scheduled. They said they’re very sorry and don’t want to give me another specific date yet because it’s still stuck in manufacturing and they have to inspect it and detail it after that. They’re now “aiming for Thursday or Friday”. It’s disappointing, but in the scheme of things I guess it’s only a few more days.“

          1. Myst says:

            They best check his car 110% if he has any honesty, rather than being a Muskmaid, he will Report ALL issues openly and transparently, unlike blindfolded cheerleaders here and NDA-gagged and Fear of Shame stock pumpers.

            1. floydboy says:

              Well, you can name-call, berate, throw tantrums, even do the boogaloo if you like. It ain’t gonna stop them 1970s tight SHORTS from putting the SQUEEZE on, in all the right places! LOL!

            2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Another idiot troll kl🤡own komment from “Myst”… I guess “Mystery” was too many syllables for him to keep using it as his screen name.

              Dude, you really need to find some other way of dealing with your stages of grief over all that money you’re losing betting against Tesla by shorting stock.

              Tesla started deliveries of the Model 3 on July 28. Whining about that and trying to deny it isn’t going to change anything.

              1. SJC says:

                400 in four months is not really mass production.

                1. Mats says:

                  712 in 5 months it is now. Rampong up slowly but probably faster soon. December should show 4 digits in single month.

                2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                  You need to look up the definition of “mass production”. Go ahead and argue with the dictionary, if you want to. 😆

                  1. SJC says:

                    Come on, in the context of auto making 100 per month is not mass production.

            3. Bill Howland says:

              Myst, while I greatly appreciate an honest appraisal, Someone with terminal-cancer would be greatful to get any kind of electric car at all.

              He’s going to be thankful just to be able to drive an EV for a few more months… Money or Value is of little object when one finds oneself in that situation.

          2. Scott Franco says:

            Your car is in production.

            There are M3s gathering dust in parking lots.

            Somebody open a window, it stinks in here.

            1. Myst says:

              It’s all the Smoke (and mirrors)!

              1. Nix says:

                Yes, Tesla cars do often smoke their competitors and leave them shrinking in Tesla’s rear view mirrors as they pull away.

                1. Asak says:

                  Only for the first quarter mile though.

                  1. Nix says:

                    To quote bro1999 (Improved version):

                    “Go Tesla!”

        2. ffbj says:

          Let see, something you may understand. They will probably produce more Model 3’s than GM produces Bolts this month.
          That seems to be an amount that you view as significant.

          1. floydboy says:

            Well played!

        3. vicxh says:

          At the Tesla factory, there is a notice: “If you want a non-employee, non NDA Tesla 3, come tomorrow.”

      2. WadeTyhon says:

        Awesome story! 🙂 Go TMC and Tesla. I’m glad he was able to get his!

        1. FuzzmanX says:

          Woo! Sweat shop Inc!

      3. FuzzmanX says:

        Wow, such mass production!

    1. stimpy says:

      I’d hate to see a QA issue like the Bolt had where a single failed battery cell disables the entire car!

      1. bro1999 says:

        Based off all the stories leaking from the Gigafactory, that’s a very real possibility for the Model 3’s battery! Good thing Tesla’s Q&A is much better than GM’s and they will be able to catch such flaws.

        …….oh wait

        1. Nix says:

          You do realize that Tesla’s QA DID catch the problem very early, and Tesla resolved it with no recalls.

          Meanwhile GM’s QA let the problem go through for around half a year of production, and didn’t figure it out until customer cars had to be recalled.

          1. bro1999 says:

            The Q&A team must have been on leave when they let that Model S with the cracked a pillar get delivered.

            Just one of many examples of imperfect Teslas reaching owner hands.

            1. floydboy says:

              Still swinging eh, bro!

            2. Nix says:

              You mean like the 30 million GM cars and trucks that went out the door with faulty ignition switches that GM says killed 124 men, women, and children?

              Oh, wait. You are right. GM’s QA actually DID know about that one, and the bean counters said to keep shipping anyways, even if it kills people. Yea, GM is so much better…

              1. Myst says:

                Nor is TSLA in Uber-sweeping the first Autopilot death, and pompously Still refusing to change its deceptive name despite calls from foreign govts and USA safety watchdogs. Hubris to the max. Where did it occur? That’s right, China, so good luck with yr intl sales there as it sells 2 of Every 3 cars globally. Model 3 production Best not reach 5K a week because They will have a Waterfall flow of Inventory when CA Waitlist evaporates to Zero.

                1. Sans-Ice says:

                  Let it rest and troll another site please. You short sellers bore me.

                2. Nix says:

                  NHTSA has already made their ruling on AutoPilot. It SAVES lives. In fact, it cut collision rates by 40%!!!

                  https://insideevs.com/nhtsa-closes-tesla-autopilot-death-investigation-no-recall-necessary/

                  I bet you also don’t wear your seatbelt, because somewhere somebody died because they had their seatbelt on.

                3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                  Myst continued his idiot troll kl🤡wn komment FUD campaign:

                  “Nor is TSLA in Uber-sweeping the first Autopilot death…”

                  Well, how many lies is that?

                  1. It’s not TSLA, it’s Tesla. Altho it’s understandable that your obsession with shorting the stock has caused you to mix up the company and the stock.

                  2. Tesla investigated the one-and-only confirmed case of a death in a car operated by Autopilot promptly, and made changes accordingly… unlike some other auto makers.

                  “Where did it occur? That’s right, China…”

                  3. That’s a lie, too. The one and only confirmed Autopilot death occurred in Florida. A family in China filed suit against Tesla, claiming that their relative’s Model S was operating under Autopilot when he had a fatal accident, but offered no actual evidence and refused to allow Tesla to examine the car.

                  It’s certainly no surprise that a Tesla hating troll like you would cite that as if it’s fact, rather than an unsubstantiated and likely false claim.

              2. Murrysville EV says:

                @Nix: That’s not how the GM ignition thing went. At least 50 people die in GM cars every day. GM didn’t understand the linkage between a tiny fraction of these deaths and a tiny fraction of their ignition switches until very late in the story.
                It’s bad business to knowingly kill off your customers, and it’s unfair and inaccurate to describe the timeline that way.

                1. Nix says:

                  Murry–

                  Fact: GM knew their defective switches were causing deaths and even AFTER discovering this hid the defect from current owners who continued to die.

                  GM themselves admitted to this, and agreed to pay a nearly $1 Billion dollar CRIMINAL fine. Directly from the United States Department of Justice website:

                  “GM engineers knew before the Defective Switch even went into production in 2002 that it was prone to easy movement out of the Run position. Testing of a prototype showed that the torque return between the Run and Accessory positions fell below GM’s own internal specifications. But the engineer in charge of the Defective Switch approved its production anyway.

                  By the spring of 2012, GM knew that the Defective Switch presented a safety defect because it could cause airbag non-deployment in certain GM cars. Specifically, GM personnel investigating the cause of a series of airbag non-deployment incidents learned that the Defective Switch could cause frontal airbag non-deployment in at least some model years of the Cobalt, and were aware of several fatal incidents and serious injuries that occurred as a result of accidents in which the Defective Switch may have caused or contributed to airbag non-deployment. This knowledge extended well above the ranks of investigating engineers to certain supervisors and attorneys at the Company.

                  Yet not until approximately 20 months later, in February 2014, did GM first notify NHTSA and the public of the connection it had identified between the Defective Switch and airbag non-deployment incidents. The Company thus egregiously disregarded NHTSA’s five-day regulatory reporting requirement for safety defects.”

                  You can white-wash it all you want, but GM knew from the beginning that the part was faulty, and decided to use it anyway remaining willfully blind to the consequences. Even when the facts that they were killing people became indisputable even to them, even up the management chain, they STILL acted criminally to hide it.

                  https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/manhattan-us-attorney-announces-criminal-charges-against-general-motors-and-deferred

                  1. Gasbag says:

                    @Nix
                    Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge.

                  2. Jeffrey D Songster says:

                    I have personally been harassed for weeks by GM over a QA issue that they knew about when they shipped a car in their past. They are more worried about lawyers that bully their customers than QA or fixing problems when they occur. I finally forced GM to admit the problem in arbitration because one of their dealer repair shuttle drivers leaked to me that they knew about the problems and were not negotiating in good faith. I got a replacement car out of them and was able to fix the defect myself. But GM is no friend to their customers nor the well being of the earth. They are a large ugly corporation with all that that entails. When they crushed the EV1… When they pulled the Opel version of the BOLT as it was about to start selling in europe… they also tried to keep China from banning ICE vehicles… It is clear where their greedy, nasty corporate behavior leads. I am happy they released the BOLT… it is a OK ev. Needs work… needs a charger net but a good start. Now show us you actually want it to succeed GM… advertise it… promote it… release an EV pickup truck and eat your own lunch!
                    I will be enjoying cruising in my Tesla Model X and spending the earnings of my Tesla stock which is up massively against the likes of GM or Toyota… the monoliths. They need to wake up and license the Tesla tech and charger nets to catch up… otherwise they will remain years behind for many years to come, even if it takes a few months longer to deliver Model 3. Count me as still enjoying the ride!

                    1. Asak says:

                      I don’t disagree with you, but this goes for basically all corporations. Tesla is probably also included, although it’s not clear Tesla actually exists to make money, so it could be an exception (for as long as that lasts).

            3. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

              GM sure did a great QA job on the frozen screen on the Bolt didn’t they?

              http://www.chevybolt.org/forum/178-2017-chevy-bolt-ev-issues-problems/14354-infotainment-center-freezing.html

              1. Al says:

                At least the instrument cluster still works. Wait until that starts happening on Model 3s!

                1. floydboy says:

                  Push and hold both steering wheel buttons simultaneously, system resets. Simple.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          We really should feel sorry for Bro1999 and his zero-sum attitude. He can’t view Tesla succeeding with its Model 3 as anything other than a loss for GM and its Bolt EV.

          There’s room in the market for both cars, and more choices with the Model 3 and the Bolt EV, as well as other EVs, is a win-win for all prospective EV buyers.

          Too bad Bro1999 is wearing Tesla hater blinders and can’t see that.

    2. R69D420 says:

      I live in Michigan. A couple weeks ago, I saw a blue model 3 driving down the road near my neighborhood. Tesla does not operate much in Michigan, to my knowledge, and we’re 2 hours away from a Tesla distribution center in Ohio. Highly unlikely it was an employee.

    3. Dan says:

      Rather than arguing the merits of Tesla vs. whomever I think the interesting issue here is the arithmatic of when T delivers its 200,000th car in the US. In order to get two quarters of maxed out production they want to do it at the beginning of a new quarter. It was supposed to be 1st qt. ’18 but that won’t happen with the slow ramp up of M3 production.

      I don’t know how many are left until they get there but it would seem sensible that they would constrain deliveries to 199,999 total by Mar. 31 and then let it rip. Does anyone know how many they have to go until they get to 200K?

  2. pjwood1 says:

    I didn’t realize it was Hota, that was the one being asked to (re)-up its production. That makes it more credible, to me, that bottlenecks are lifting. Otherwise, it seemed like the anecdotal sightings were all we had.

  3. Doggydogworld says:

    These numbers really don’t work. This vendor’s original ramp schedule would have him shipping 5000 sets per week back in October so they’d arrive in Fremont in time for December’s fully ramped production. Tesla told this supplier to reduce to only 3000/week “starting in December”.

    Tesla has produced at most 3000 cars to date, and probably less than 2000. They received thousands of these parts pre-November, another ~20k in November with another 20k hitting loading docks this month, 12k next month, etc.

    Why would they need to ship parts on planes?

    1. FuzzmanX says:

      They will have lots of quality issues. When you use slaves, it’s inevitable.

      1. mx says:

        Apple says your speculation is wrong.

        1. Myst says:

          Apple gets Foxconn to fix their problems right away. Tesla still has problems 5-6 years Later making Modrl S fit and finish. No LiDar in Autopilot, no solid state lithium batteries

          1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

            “no solid state lithium batteries”

            Who’s using those in their EV’s to sell to the masses of at least hundreds of cars?????

            What dumbaz$ statement.

            1. WadeTyhon says:

              Come join us in the forums where the only trolling is of the trolls lol. 😉

              And you can use ‘Ignore’ on the nonsense posters if you’d like.

              https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php

        2. Fancy a Bev Mate? says:

          I wouldn’t use Apple to prove a statement, they have had their fair share if issues with their products from bad reception issues to terrible software on their products to resting on their laurels for years whilst the competition caught up.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “Why would they need to ship parts on planes?”

      That jumped out at me, too, as not making any sense. As you say, Tesla should already have thousands of each part on hand, so why would there be anything that needed to be shipped in such a rush as to pay for air freight?

      Maybe that’s just a rumor; maybe there isn’t anything being shipped by air freight. But if Tesla is paying for that, then there’s almost certainly more to this story than is being reported here. If Tesla is paying for air freight, it’s likely for some part that had to be redesigned after production started, and so is holding up the entire production run.

    3. Asak says:

      You’re right this really makes no sense. Tesla should have parts coming out of it’s ass if that many parts were coming in while so few cars were coming off the line.

      I’m starting to think Tesla is just badly managed. Even taking this story at face value, frantically ordering more parts like is being describe basically speaks to incompetent planning.

  4. bro1999 (Improved version) says:

    Great! Go Tesla!

    1. Another Euro point of view (improved version) says:

      +1

      1. ffbj says:

        You guys. Simple but effective. At least one quality of those whom you mock.

    2. bro1999 says:

      Go cash incineration engine, go!

      1. mx says:

        There are two sides to a balance sheet.
        If you’re not hearing about the asset build, the geometric asset build, on your financial channel you’re being fed fake news.

        1. Ambulator says:

          Yes, the assets of Tesla are rapidly going up, but not as rapidly as the liabilities. That’s what operating at a loss does.

          On the other hand, of course they are losing money during the ramp up. That should surprise nobody. The big question is how will they do after production is ramped up?

          1. Myst says:

            All you people have Drunk the Koolaid in Believing that there is No Demand Side issue ( you hear the Musk boy cry wolf and believe the 400k+ numbers of $1k Reservations will turn into Orders). It is DJT level misdirection.
            Nix admitted Model 3 has priced itself Out of Toyota/Honda/GM/Ford/Hyundai market, and believes model 3 Can survive to sway BMW Mercedes Audi Lexus loyal owners, yet cannot believe USA 2018 sales can reach 100k in 2018. At 5K/wk production, inventory of unsold orphaned cars would flood the Holding lots and Rework parking garages.

            1. Nix says:

              Yes, the Model 3 is not a $20K car after incentives, and the incentives ARE going away one way or another in 2018. Anybody can look at the price tag and figure that out for themselves.

              But the median price for a brand new car in the United States is actually $35K. US consumers purchased 17.5 million cars in 2016. That means there were somewhere above 8 MILLION vehicles sold in the US with price tags starting at the price of the base Model 3, and going higher from there. State incentives bring it within the price for even more than that ~8 million buyers who are already paying $35K+ for their cars. And people who can do long-term math and calculate savings combined with solar bring that number up even more.

              Pricing is indeed a challenge to EVERY electric vehicle. We all realize this. This has been known for decades, dating back to the EV1. And yet around half the new car buyers in the US as much or more than the starting price of the Model 3.

              Keep underestimating Tesla, that’s exactly what large luxury car makers did. Now Tesla owns roughly 1/3rd of that market segment.

              You just keep posting stupid, I’ll keep posting the facts, and Tesla will just keep ramping up production no matter what you say or do. There is nothing you can do to stop them.

              1. Will says:

                Nix did you include SUV, trucks, and CUV. Becuase its the whole market segements not only sedens in 17. Million. That includes fleets, so your 8 million in 35k is way off for compact sedan segment

                1. Myst says:

                  Again, Musk has skillfully played All You People, into Burning $35K price point into yr Poorly Educated heads. There is No. Such. Thing. period. As comrade Nix pointed out ~ $50k is the real price point, else Tesla will burn more losses into the Bonfire Cash incineration Machine.

                  1. Nix says:

                    I think you must have me confused with somebody else. Because I certainly didn’t say $50K.

                    The Model 3 will be available in the same price range as the BMW 330i through to the same price range as the BMW M3.

                2. Gasbag says:

                  The market for sedans in the US is about 3 million per year but with the US being A bit over 20% of the world market and two out of three cars being left hand drive the world market for LHD sedans would be about 10 million per year.

                3. Nix says:

                  Will, yes I included all vehicles. But since I also only included the US market and excluded the global market, it evens out when it comes to total demand.

                  The total size of ICE market that Tesla can penetrate is just so huge that it doesn’t even warrant going into pedantic detail.

                  1. Nix says:

                    *laugh* gasbag understood while I was still typing! In other words, what gasbag said….

                    thanks.

            2. Asak says:

              Frankly, I question whether Tesla even hits 5k/week. That ramp is just too aggressive. I suspect natural demand is much less than that at the price point Model 3 is going for.

              I suspect they’re also going to have trouble with the ramp up. Tesla has never made this many cars per month, and so far things haven’t been going well. It’s wishful thinking to believe that suddenly a bottleneck goes away and they hit 5k/week without encountering more problems.

              I think they’ll slowly work their way up to 1-2k per week, but this may be a blessing in disguise in the long run as they don’t end up over producing.

              1. Nix says:

                ASAK: “I question whether Tesla even hits 5k/week… I suspect natural demand is much less”

                Exact parrot of the 2011 anti Model S talking points. We all know how wrong those talking points turned out to be.

                ASAK: “they’re also going to have trouble with the ramp up. Tesla has never made this many cars per month”

                Ramping up production of any product is simply the process of continually fixing issues. Of course they will run into problems, and then fix them. Every single year Tesla hits production numbers that they have never made before. In fact, they have been nearly DOUBLING production numbers every year, each year hitting numbers they have never made before. Hitting productions numbers they have never made before is the norm for Tesla every single year.

                ASAK: “they’ll slowly work their way up to 1-2k per week”

                Now you are going backwards, from claiming Tesla won’t be able to hit production numbers that they have never made before, to claiming that somehow Tesla won’t even be able to hit production numbers that they ALREADY produce with the Model S/X. Tesla already builds ~2K per week Model S/X units. What magical force do you believe will hold them back to production levels less than what they are already capable of with much more complex vehicles?

                Sorry, but you just sound reactionary without actual facts. There is no factual basis for there being any reason why Model 3 production would be magically restrained to as little as HALF the current Model S/X production numbers like you claim. In fact, all the available evidence shows that Tesla is indeed capable of hitting production levels greatly in excess of numbers they have ever hit before, because they’ve done it every single year.

          2. Nix says:

            Actually, The trend (excluding new product production ramp-up) has been very strong that Tesla has been accumulating assets FASTER than they have been increasing liabilities dating all the way back to 2013.

            Tesla is currently has roughly $5 Billion more in assets than liabilities. That is up from 2013 where they had roughly $1 Billion more in assets than liabilities. (I’ve posted the source on this info many many times, ibid).

            They are negative on cash flow, but part of that cash is going to pay for Assets. The amount of cash flow going to build assets each year is larger than the amount they are going negative each year. The net result is that Assets grow faster than Liabilities. (AKA, the very definition of building a company)

            1. Doggydogworld says:

              Tesla’s assets grow faster than liabilities because shareholders donate more assets (cash) every 9 months or so. It has nothing to do with internal cash flows.

              1. Nix says:

                Yes, Tesla gets investment dollars from investors to build Tesla in exchange for shares. Those dollars are invested, and have resulted in Tesla producing $5 Billion more in Assets than they have in Liabilities.

                That is all part of the cash flow I was speaking of. Cash flow includes all source of cash, and all spending. Including spending that results in Tesla accumulating more Assets than Liabilities.

                Investors invest in Tesla building a company. Tesla takes those investments and build Assets. This is the definition of building a company through investment.

                1. Asak says:

                  People buying Tesla at this point aren’t really “investors” and that’s pretty much regardless of how the company actually does. It’s so expensive you’ll never make any money on it.

                  1. Nix says:

                    Let me guess, you missed buying Amazon in 2015 at $300/share too. (it is now $1200/share)

                    If you can’t make money on TSLA shares, why have investors made roughly $6.4 BILLION DOLLARS just between Dec 1st 2017 and today?

                    That’s a lot of profits, for a company you supposedly can’t make any money on.

      2. ffbj says:

        Incinerating the cash of all the short-sellers.

      3. Daniel Lavia says:

        Don’t feed the troll.

        1. Nix says:

          You would think that would work, but when ignored they continue to post, and simply respond to each other and pat each other’s backsides.

          Every EV website has gone through this. It has even badly damaged many green websites, leading to mass exodus.

      4. floydboy says:

        Bro! You’re drifting man! Remember, ‘bad things about Model 3’… ‘bad things about Model 3’….

      5. Hauer says:

        Sounds like the stuff between your ears already has been incinerated.

    3. floydboy says:

      HA HA HA…. I like the new you!

  5. FuzzmanX says:

    They label parts made in Juarez MX as “Made in USA”.
    $35,000 is a silly price for that car.

    1. MTN Ranger says:

      The Moroney sticker shows 25% parts from Mexico. So they are at least reflected there.

      1. FuzzmanX says:

        …and this implies that the remaining 25% comes from CHINA, TAIWAN, and THAILAND. You see, 50+25=75 and 75<100.

        1. Nix says:

          You clearly didn’t read the sticker. It also says 50% comes from the United States, then 25% from Mexico. The final 25% comes from a mix of European and Pacific Rim nations.

          1. Nix says:

            Typed too fast. 50% US/Canadian

    2. floydboy says:

      Which parts? Or are you just flinging crap to see what it sticks to?

      1. FuzzmanX says:

        Hate to burst your bubble, but I know former Tesla employees who performed vendor audits in Mexico.

      2. FuzzmanX says:

        …I didn’t perform an interrogation, so I can’t report on which parts. But you can TRUST MUSK not to lie to you.

        1. floydboy says:

          Hmmm… Musk or internet pop-up basher dude? Let me think!

  6. georgeS says:

    Remember the song by Bob Dylan:

    “You know there’s something happening but you don’t know what it is”

    I still think there’s issues with cell production and it’s all being hush hushed and code named “pack assembly automation”.

    @Doggydog,

    yes if it takes 3 months to get those parts in cars then that jives up pretty well with the end of quarter 1 as the start of 5000/week production rate.

    Therefore bottleneck is still in place.

    1. mx says:

      No, not bottleneck not in place, just long lead time for production and delivery.

    2. M Hovis says:

      “Ballad of a thin man” is the Robert Zimmerman tune.

      As a retired manufacturing engineer that supplied automation to many a plant, it is a familiar tune. Rush rush to start production, stop to catch the inevitable variables that you can’t predict, and then cautiously begin production. I agree with your time assessment George.

      1. Kdawg says:

        I always love it when we rush to complete equipment and ship it, only for it to sit under a tarp at a plant for a couple months.

        1. William says:

          Besides the slow ramp up of Model 3 production, the production line, of automotive sized blue tarps, is going at full tilt.

          It looks like a significant quantity, of slightly used blue tarps, will be available come next month. Be sure to get them while they last!

        2. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

          We rush built 1200piece order to Qualcom once and they didn’t get to start using them till 4 months later.

          But here’s the kicker, they decided to change the specs and sent them back to get tuned to the new specs…….lol

          1. Kdawg says:

            We had someone pay us $250K for some equipment. It sat in their parking lot so long they scrapped it before ever installing it. Others have paid us to hold their equipment for over 2 years.

            1. Josh Bryant says:

              Gotta love those end of year “you better spend this money or the budget goes away.”

              Engineers are not very smart spenders in that scenario.

              There is close to 7 figures of testing and computing equipment sitting in storage at an old company of mine due to this syndrome.

              Why not just roll the money over until we get to the end of the project and know for sure what we need?

    3. HVACman says:

      Two Gigafactory insiders who post comments on Disqus, one on the Panasonic side and one on the Tesla side, both report significant temporary re-assignments of Panasonic employees to Tesla to help at the 80 newly-constructed hand-build module and pack assembly stations. Both used the phrase “voluntolds” when describing the Panasonic employees’ enthusiasm when asked to help. Both note that Panasonic has temporarily slowed down cell manufacturing until the existing on-site cell inventory is used up. It’s not cells. It’s modules and packs. It’s Tesla, not Panasonic. And 5000 a week in a month? I’m very skeptical.

      If their reports are true, it is likely that if we see a Model 3 production ramp-up, it is because Tesla now has sufficient man-power and tooling to hand-build the modules and packs at a faster rate until they figure out how to re-tool the automation equipment and/or re-engineer the modules and packs.

      1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

        “Both used the phrase “voluntolds” when describing the Panasonic employees’ enthusiasm when asked to help.”

        I’ve never understood why employees think they should not do what their employer asks of them when it’s well within the job scope doing the same thing.

        1. Myst says:

          When you are asked to run around like crazed fire ants to follow your pied piper into the Cash incineration Bonfire, maybe use the atom-size brain to at least twitch a bit first.

          1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

            If you don’t like your job then GTF out and go flip some burgers.

            Wa Wa, I want to only do what ~I~ want to do and not what my employer asks me to do…….Wa Wa…..

        2. FuzzmanX says:

          Oh so that’s what a “Gigafactory” is.

        3. Asak says:

          it’s because putting these cells into a battery by hand is probably a mind numbingly boring job. Not really surprising that employees wouldn’t be thrilled about it. Yeah, sure they have to do what they’re told, but that doesn’t mean they’re not still human with emotions.

      2. georgeS says:

        @HVACman,

        I’m happy to be wrong. The last thing we need is a lot of cars with defective cells and a massive recall. So far we’ve been lucky and Panasonic seems to ship quality cells.

        1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

          “and a massive recall.”

          Hasn’t every car manufacturer gone through that more than once?

          It’s just business as usual if it happens!

        2. Nix says:

          Tesla, like every single car company, budgets for recalls and warranty work at the beginning of building each car, and recall expenses are already calculated into their margins.

          They already have contingency plans for such an event, and they disclose these numbers in their SEC filings.

    4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “I still think there’s issues with cell production and it’s all being hush hushed and code named ‘pack assembly automation’.”

      What would lead you to think so? Even that anonymous claimed “Tesla insider” posting to Reddit, the one everyone is citing, says that the Panasonic side of Gigafactory One is humming along just fine. It’s only the pack assembly side where chaos lately ruled, but that seems to have finally been straightened out, at least enough to allow a sudden surge in finished Model 3’s awaiting delivery.

      “Therefore bottleneck is still in place.”

      The report of hundreds of Model 3’s sitting in a depot awaiting shipment, rather strongly indicates otherwise!

      Go Tesla!

  7. ogden lafaye says:

    There should be no doubt that Tesla will eventually ramp up production to meet demand. It is more at “soon” than “someday”…

    Elon Musk is not in the business of ill-gotten gains, fraud or theft. There are people out there that want to see him fail…badly. The envy and jealousy of these sick people should be obvious. The MainStreamMedia just loves it, of course.

    1. serial anti tesla troll thomas says:

      Yes because the main stream media (and the government) is always telling fake News.

      1. Get Real says:

        Go back to Breitbart you Brexit loving and anti-Tesla UK troll named Thomas.

  8. HVACman says:

    The elephant question in the room: Will Tesla queue up even a a single Model 3 unit for production that has not been through the actual ordering/configuration process, with non-refundable deposit, purchase agreement executed, and been pre-configured?

    Anyone who knows diddly about automotive production knows that a unit is not entered into the production process until there is an executed contract with the future owner to take delivery and pay for the unit when it rolls off the line – a dealer, a company, an individual, or the manufacturer themselves (going to inventory).

    With Tesla’s marketing model, there are no dealers and there are no companies, so unless Tesla is now building Model 3 units for inventory, the FIRST sign they are ready to ramp-up will be a MASSIVE increase of “configure” invites to the reservation holders. Tesla will only PRODUCE 5000 per week when there are 5000 PURCHASE CONTRACTS per week flowing into their system. Note that even if 5000 invites per week are released, they will not translate to 5000 Purchase Contracts per week. Many, many reservation holders may opt to either get a refund on their deposit or “hold their place in line” for a future, more cost-effective version. Anyone know what the current invite-to-purchase contract ratio is?

    Yes, we continue to see signs of new invitations going out, but those still are a trickle.

    1. Nix says:

      “Tesla appears to be increasing the rate at which it sends out batches of Model 3 configuration invitations to regular customers.

      After the automaker sent out the first two batches 3 weeks apart, we are now getting reports of several more reservation holders getting their invitations over the last 2 weeks.

      The company seemingly sent another batch of invitations last night, as we confirmed with several more reservation holders.”

      https://electrek.co/2017/12/15/tesla-model-3-batch-configuration-invites/

      1. Myst says:

        Yes, the guillotine or victory moment of truth is fast approaching as to when Model 3 California trendsetter Waitlist evaporates to Zero

        1. Sans-Ice says:

          Go away

          1. Myst says:

            Try an Apple Watch for your heart condition (some real innovation)

            1. Sans-Ice says:

              Ha ha – apple watches – interesting comparison actually. Apple and Tesla are both game changers in the technology sector. Unfortunately the apple watch seems to be a dismal failure despite the dominance of the ipad and iphone. The Model 3 by all indicators, and much to your dismay will be a resounding success as is the X and S models. It is such a shame you are a hater. Some day maybe even you will see the light.

              1. Sans-Ice says:

                UGh – a lot of business people smarter than me disagree:

                http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/09/apple-watch-series-3-ultimately-failure/

                I bet you were a big betamax guy as well.. lol – want to buy a bridge?

                1. Myst says:

                  Apple could sell ICE to the eskimos at 1 Million units a Month (like Apple Watch does), without any defects and failing to make the machine that builds the machine and still have defects 5-6 yrs later like Tesla.

            2. Sans-Ice says:

              OK lets review Mr Apple stock holder – Tesla shorts seller. Apple watches have gotten all kinds of negative reviews but Apple customers will buy a cube of ice becasue it has an apple on it. Teslas are peices of crap despite winning tons of awards, the product proliferating, them having a loyal follwing, and all of the other manufacturers are trying to play catch up. Name one single answer to Tesla thus far that can compete – the Chevy Bolt? ahhh yeah – here is a sampling of all of the awards garnered by Tesla:

              https://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/18/many-awards-tesla-won-infographic-tells-us/

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S

              the first link is 3 years old so….?

              1. Myst says:

                Apple products are innovative and lead in their premium high end segment. Model S and X (despite its design flawed gullwing doors that can get ripped off by passing trucks on errant FOB press) are innovative but Have No More Growth, Period.
                Model 3 is the Saving Grace to avoid Kodak EOL moment, but pricing will make CA Waitlist demand evaporate (per being priced out of Toyota/Honda/Nissan/GM/Ford/Hyundai market per yr comrade Nix)

                1. Nix says:

                  “Waitlist demand evaporate (per being priced out of Toyota/Honda/Nissan/GM/Ford/Hyundai market per yr comrade Nix)”

                  You are falsely conflating multiple things.

                  1) The waitlist is the start of demand, not the end of demand. The Model S, and Model X both went on to sell way more than the original wait list. You are wrongly conflating the end of the waitlist with the end of demand. Same mistake you nutters have made with S and X and were proven wrong.

                  2) Not being in the low $20K price range doesn’t mean there is no market. Half the vehicles sold in the US are $35K or over, just like the Model 3. So it is entirely affordable, even to somebody who might normally buy a truck or an SUV, but want an EV this time. And that’s just the US market. BMW, Audi, and a long list of other premium brands exist just fine without competing with Toyota, Ford, etc in the low 20K price range. You are wrongly conflating that car companies must have low $20K cars in order to have demand. That is false, proven false by the long list of premium brands that don’t sell any cars in that price range.

                  3) Tesla has a long history of bringing buyer UP in price who would have NEVER spent that much on an ICE car. Or even on some other EV. We have a poster here who did that for a Roadster, and now owns a Bolt. The Model S drew in a ton of Prius owners, despite being double or triple the price. Finally, there are people who can to the long term math and see that with home solar they can afford a more expensive car over 5 year TCO. You are falsely conflating them not being in the same price bracket, with there somehow being no way that anybody would ever jump up to a higher price range than they would otherwise pay for just another ICE car.

                  You don’t seem to know much about Tesla sales. But keep posting stupid stuff, and I’ll keep exposing your stupidity. You do you.

        2. Nix says:

          The vast majority of cars are sold in the US without any wait list at all. What imaginary problem is there with waitlists?

          1. Myst says:

            Agree, No problem with No Waitlist Because that means Transparency and Reality to Demand, Rather than blown up fantasyland make-believe Hyperbole Like 400k $1k reservations of an Unprofitable non-existent $35k promise when it is really ~$50k (prices out of Toyota/Honda/Nissan/GM/Ford/Hyundai market). Will see what happens in 2018 On the Ground, esp CA/LA

            1. Nix says:

              There is no problem with waitlists. Because the Model 3 will be similar to the Model S that started with roughly 12,000 Model S reservations and has now sold two orders of magnitude more.

              The number of reservations prior to ramp-up is simply the starting point of demand, and will be dwarfed with actual demand after going into full production. Just like with the Model S.

              Sorry you can’t understand these simple concepts.

              1. Myst says:

                Or Evaporate Way Quicker than Expected Like Model X.
                Nice try at misdirection, you learn well from yr leader.

                1. Nix says:

                  Yes, Model X sales continue to grow well beyond even the initial 24K pre-rampup reservations. Tesla is on track to increase global sales of the Model X by more than 30% over last year, crushing the 24K initial reservation number from before ramp-up began in 2014.

                  That’s exactly my point. Reservation numbers are just the starting point of demand, which is later dwarfed post-rampup.

                  Is there anything more you want to say about reservations to help prove the point that sales will dwarf reservation numbers in the coming years?

                  1. Myst says:

                    Flatline No growth in USA for $100k, Pinocchio

                    1. Nix says:

                      I’m a liar because I clearly state GLOBAL SALES increases, and you come back with US sales?

                      Do you even know what the difference is between the US market and the GLOBAL market?

                      Besides, sales are far from flat in the US also.

                      Total Jan-Nov 2016 US sales was 14,350
                      Total Jan-Nov 2017 US sales was 18,015 for the same 11 months. That is more than 25% increase in sales in the comparable time period. Only in your completely nutter crazy world is 25% INCREASE in sales “flat” sales!!!!

                      https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

                      So not only are you wrong about the Global Sales numbers I referenced, you are wrong about US 2017 sales vs 2016.

                      Anything else completely idiotic you want to contribute today to make a complete fool of yourself? Bring it on. I’ll keep posting the facts, you keep being you.

                    2. Myst says:

                      You always pull that phony global nonsense, just like yr leader who blantanlty refuses to report Intl per country sales to pull the wool over the Poorly Educated. Tencent saved their arse with 5% stake into the Bonfire Cash incineration pit. Use yr single brain cell

                    3. Nix says:

                      Tesla reports global sales numbers every quarter. sorry you can’t read.

            2. Gasbag says:

              If the waitlist evaporates as you say then the 35k model will be available with the same tax incentives as the Bolt and Leaf. Here in CA that is $10,500 so for under 25k I could get a Tesla M3!!!! I do hope you aren’t blowing smoke out your arse again under yet another handle.

              Why do you feel the need to keep creating new handles to post under?

              1. floydboy says:

                To give the appearance of ‘many’, when in fact it’s just a few paid bashers. For some strange reason, they believe their ridiculous machinations will change hearts and minds.

                1. Get Real says:

                  And…those few paid FUDsters are having to resort to hiring mentally ill now as the Mystery troll’s posting proves!

    2. cab says:

      That’s a good question. Given the relatively modest configuration options, it is somewhat conceivable they could produce cars for what they to be “popular” configurations ahead of time. As an example, if black and “aero” wheels are the only “no extra cost” color/wheel combo, I could see them producing a few black/aero/pup cars (note: they all have AP hardware so that could just be a matter of “activating”). They can look at either industry trends or their own Model S ordering patterns to easily predict “color” choices (although the smaller Model 3 might have a slightly higher “take” rate on “sportier” colors like red and blue). Heck, other than colors…nothing else changes in manufacturing right now that isn’t alterable after-the-fact (although I suspect they don’t want to do that as it screws stuff up in terms of tracking which VIN had what from the get-go).

      1. HVACman says:

        Why would cash-hungry Tesla possibly build to inventory when (based on their massive pre-order reservation list) they can easily convert tens of 1000’s of $1K refundable reservations to non-refundable status, get additional $$$ with the non-refundable configuration/order deposit, and have signed full-purchase contracts in-place PRIOR to ordering (and being on the accounts-receivable $ hook for) a massive bunch of parts?

        Building to inventory is what a cash-rich manufacturer does to keep surplus production capacity going and good employees off the unemployment line during a temporary lull in sales. That is not Tesla’s situation.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Yes, Tesla would be both crazy and stupid to build Model 3’s for inventory at this time, with the wait list so very long.

          Despite the enormous amount of B.S. FUD posted here by a handful of idiot Tesla hating trolls, those haters who are only exposing their jealousy of Tesla’s success and their fear of losing even more money from the TSLA shorting, Tesla is neither crazy nor stupid.

          Go Tesla!

      2. HVACman says:

        Why would cash-hungry Tesla possibly build to inventory when (based on their massive pre-order reservation list and apparently boundless enthusiasm for their product) they can easily convert tens of 1000’s of $1K refundable reservations to non-refundable status, get additional $$$ with the non-refundable configuration/order deposit, and have signed full-purchase contracts in-place PRIOR to ordering (and being on the accounts-receivable $ hook for) a massive bunch of parts?

        Building to inventory is what a cash-rich manufacturer does to keep surplus production capacity operating and good employees off the unemployment line during a temporary lull in sales. That is not Tesla’s situation.

        1. HVACman says:

          oops. Sorry for the duplicate posting.

        2. Nix says:

          The only reason would be to shorten the turn-around time between when they allow a buyer to finalize their reservation, and when they take delivery.

          But all evidence points to Tesla increasing their external finalization rate, while at the same time opening up more deliveries to internal customers by now allowing SpaceX emplyees to finalize along with Tesla employees.

          All the evidence points to a significant ramp-up in both internal and external customers finalizing their reservations, so it seems like it is moving exactly the direction it should be.

          *shrug*

    3. HVACman says:

      And the off-topic nature of most of the replies to my comment illustrates that the business reality of balancing production levels with actual executed purchase contracts is STILL the elephant in the room.

      1. Nix says:

        then what does it say when you completely ignore all of my completely on-topic posts showing that reservation finalizations ARE rapidly increasing? Both with buyers external to Tesla, and with internal buyers such as SpaceX employees now being allowed to purchase.

        You say X must happen, I show that all evidence points towards X.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Not only is your “point” not the elephant in the room, HVACman, it’s so obvious that it’s a moot point; unworthy of discussion.

        I don’t know why you have chosen to obsess over this painfully obvious point. It’s like saying “every car must have four wheels, so the elephant in the room is getting tires from tire manufacturers.” No, it’s not at all the elephant in the room; it’s just one of thousands of factors that every auto maker has to deal with.

        The only time that Tesla ever did much building to inventory was fairly recently, when the demand for the Model S dropped off. A better response to flagging demand for one model is to put another model into production — hence the push to get the TM3 out the door ASAP.

        As Nix has quite correctly pointed out, building to inventory is totally irrelevant to Tesla trying to ramp up TM3 production to meet amazingly high demand.

  9. TM says:

    Maybe we will have a shot at 200,000 this year after all

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      lol………..doubt it.

      1. ffbj says:

        Yeah, that won’t happen. But it does bring up an interesting question as to what that number will really be.
        Maybe half that. 100k-120k.

        1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

          IMHO, 100k.

          1. Nix says:

            100K would be averaging 2,500 per week starting in March. That would be half their target number, and no further ramp up for the entire year.

            Sounds like a very conservative estimate. On the good side, next year you will probably be able to say “I told you they would sell 100K cars in 2018” while it is still warm enough to sit out on the beach and bask in your victory under the hot sun. *grin*

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “Maybe we will have a shot at 200,000 this year after all”

      Not even 20,000 Model 3’s this year. But next year… Hold onto your hats!

  10. Leon says:

    Mars colony coming soon too.

    1. floydboy says:

      Judging from the rate he’s launching and landing these rockets, you may be right.

  11. ffbj says:

    12 Days of Model 3, Day 5: (autopilot 2.5)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-oMxz-54BU

  12. Nix says:

    Another win for Elon:

    “SpaceX launched and landed a used rocket today (Dec. 15), pulling off yet another spaceflight double play during a delivery mission for NASA that gets the company a big step closer to its goal of complete reusability.

    SpaceX’s two-stage Falcon 9 rocket lifted off today at 10:36 a.m. EST (1536 GMT) from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, sending the company’s robotic Dragon capsule on a resupply run to the International Space Station (ISS) that just might include some Christmas presents for the station’s crew.

    Both the rocket and its payload have previous spaceflight experience: This Dragon visited the orbiting lab back in April 2015, and the Falcon 9 first stage launched a different Dragon toward the ISS in June 2017. Never before had SpaceX launched a pre-flown spacecraft atop a pre-flown rocket — and never before had the company employed a used rocket on a cargo mission for NASA.”

    https://www.space.com/39063-spacex-launches-used-rocket-dragon-spacecraft-for-nasa.html

    I smell a two-fer set of announcements coming soon with Model 3 delivery news being part 2. Elon tends to like 2-fer announcements.

    1. Nix says:

      Tesla dumped Solar City’s old unsustainable model of going door-to-door getting people to lease solar, and switched to a sales model of selling solar roofs and selling solar panels from their stores.

      This is putting them on a path to making their solar sales profitable, even with less volume.

      Sometimes you have to break some eggs to make a cake. This is the natural and known process that Tesla is going through to turn Solar City around. They published this plan in their SEC filings, and they were very open about the fact that changing to building panels in the US in partnership with Panasonic was their plan to make solar panel and solar roof sales profitable. After making those products profitable, THEN they will grow sales.

      Do you have a problem with Tesla fixing a broken business, and turning it into a profitable business before growing it? Or are you just clueless about what Tesla is doing to relaunch their Solar portfolio?

      1. Nix says:

        Note to anybody confused by the non-sequitur jump to solar city. My solar city posts were in response to posts that no longer exist.

    2. Nix says:

      Yes, Tesla cut back on unprofitable leases while they completed this GigaFactory2 facility:

      https://insideevs.com/panasonic-starts-making-solar-roof-cells-at-gigafactory-2/

      Only a troll would whine about Tesla bringing the Gigafactory2 online.

    3. georgeS says:

      can’t wait for Falcon Heavy….triple reland!!

  13. Al says:

    Yes! Like EAP and FSD!

    1. floydboy says:

      I’m not so sure about FSD, but people are using the crap out of EAP! Videos of its use almost every day.

  14. jim stack says:

    Articles say a few batches of model 3’s have gone out to non employee’s of Tesla or Space X. I don’t know how many is in a batch but they are coming.
    It does look and sound good for now. We have a friend that owns 4 Tesla ,lives in Arizona near us and ordered 4 at the 3 Reveal. I’ll post when they get their email to config. It’s DEC 15th 12:30 MST time now.
    DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH 2 LONG

    1. floydboy says:

      Good deal! Thanks jim stack.

  15. georgeS says:

    God I hate the format for posting. It makes for the most disjointed discussions.

    The old GM-Volt format is still the best.

    Where’s Lyle:)

  16. Nix says:

    What does it matter whether the sales are in the US or overseas? A sale is a sale.

  17. staff says:

    Notice to Myst/Mystery:

    While we have been very tolerant of your comments/positions in the past, the volume and frequency of your posts has gone past an acceptable limit, and is causing the site moderators far too much time attempting to keep threads in check.

    While we have no issues with opinions against the mainstream, we can’t have the community being over-run with one voice, and in the manner in which you conduct yourself.

    Unfortunately, this means you will have to have an extended time-out from commenting from here on out.

  18. Mjp462 says:

    Why is it a car company who has been in business for 14 years does not know how to build a car?

    They have been planning this car for years. Everyone fixates on the wait list of 400k but they can’t even make 10k in 6 months.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Perhaps you missed the fact that Tesla advanced its timeline for putting Model 3 into production by two years!

      I would guess that any auto maker, even those with a century or more of experience, would encounter serious problems with advancing production by two full years.

      Tesla could choose to play it safe, like other auto makers. And it could also fail to capture as much of a growing market for EVs as possible, by playing it safe.

      Tesla’s aggressive growth plan certainly is giving it growing pains. And its approach to putting models into production before they are “fully baked” would be questionable if not disastrous for an auto maker with a more-or-less stable market. But as you may or may not have noticed, Tesla’s market isn’t stable; it’s growing rapidly!

      Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
      2012: 2650
      2013: 22,300
      2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
      2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
      2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Edit: I wrote “…Tesla advanced its timeline for putting Model 3 into production by two years!

        That should read “…Tesla advanced its timeline for production of the Model 3 by two years!”

        It wasn’t the start of production that was advanced by two years; it was the goal of hitting ~400k cars in 2020 that was advanced to 2018. I’m not sure how far the start of production was advanced; probably something like 6-12 months.

    2. arne-nl says:

      “Why is it a car company who has been in business for 14 years”

      Oh, the ignorance.

      The first 9 years of that they spent designing and fitting their drive train in gliders built by Lotus.

      Only since 2012, a mere 5 years ago, they started mass producing cars on an automated production line.

      You must be thinking “there are so many start-ups in Silicon Valley that produce these great smartphone apps and sell a million per year or so, why can’t Tesla do this with cars?” Yeah, right, building cars is really super simple.

      But yeah, I’m sure you would do things a lot better.

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