Tesla Model 3 Production Estimated At Above 110,000 Units

OCT 27 2018 BY MARK KANE 59

More than 110,000 people are apparently driving in a Tesla Model 3.

Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker indicates that production of the Tesla Model 3 exceeds 110,000 and today stands at 111,968 since August 2017.

Despite the progress, the estimation tool still shows that the average production rate is below 5,000 a week, currently at 4,579. Of course, it’s not necessarily the true production rate, but it gives us a glimpse at how difficult it is to expand beyond 5,000.

In total, some 177,554 VINs were registered, which is 65,576 above the Tesla Model 3 Tracker production or 13 weeks of 5,000/week worth of production.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – already >17,700 produced (estimated)

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Categories: Tesla

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59 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Estimated At Above 110,000 Units"

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marshall

I saw another black one with Washington state temp plates on the road two days ago.

M Hovis

The number is meaningless but still interesting to see if October US deliveries will break the 100,000 mark for the Model 3. No matter, the number of LR and AWD demand for the US market proved to be over 100,000. That likely translates into a similar number for another 100,000 for Europe, Canada, Austrailia, Mexico combined. Trump tariffs will affect the China market in the short term, but it doesn’t mean that a significant number will still be sold there as well. Then comes the MR and SR market right behind it. That takes Tesla production into 2020. Of course, more LR and AWD will be sold along the way holding demand throughout that year. At some point then, the Model Y hits production. Stir and repeat.

wavelet

Extremely unlikely that Tesla will offer 3 battery options in parallel.
We’ll also have to wait and see about Europe… Not being a hatchback could seriously hamper sales if the price (as expected) will be high; most Euro households have a single car.

Tony Gaillard

Yes or 0 cars, really depends on the region/city and country, for instance in France:

60% of households possesed 0 cars in Paris for instance.

But in some regions, more than 40% of households owned 2 cars,

Source here:
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2012694

przemo_li

Sedans in europe are way more popular.

arne-nl

Hatchbacks are actually most popular.

Svein Hanssen

There are 40,000 reservations in Norway alone. With just 5,5 million people.

Chris O

That’s right, keep the good news show going. Much needed in an age in which the entire MSM make a point of spinning everything Tesla in the worst possible way.

Ziv

It is going to be interesting to see October sales numbers. I hope they can come in over 24,000. But even if they plateau at 22k it is still good. And Tesla has nearly always exceeded my estimates on monthly 3 sales this year.

Taylor Marks

I think you’re going to be disappointed if you’re expecting something in the 22-24K range. Tesla always does everything they can to pull deliveries forward from the start of one quarter into the end of another. This always results in the last month of a quarter getting an artificial bump and the first month of a quarter getting an artificial dip.

I expect October to be around 18K, November to be around 22K, and December to be around 28K (I expect December will be when we get a noticeable bump from the production of Mid-Range batteries.)

ffbj

That’s typically what they do.

Ziv

Taylor, I think the quarterly loading of sales into the final month is on the S and the X, not on the 3. It is due to the timing w regards to shipping vehicles overseas. So yes, we have seen huge spikes on quarter ending sales figures in the past, but it may not affect the 3 sales nearly as much because there are no 3 sales outside North America right now.

MABUS

Canada is part is USA???

ziv

No, but it is part of North America last time I looked.

Gasbag

“I expect October to be around 18K, November to be around 22K, and December to be around 28K ”

Those numbers seem reasonable but I believe there are still surplus vehicles in the pipe from Q2. If you look at Q3 deliveries they were in excess of production numbers. That is due to the vehicles built and not delivered in Q2 but the delta was less than the delta of Q2 production andQ2 deliveries.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Huh? Tesla was trying hard to sell off every possible inventory vehicle at the end of Q3. If there is any unsold inventory — i.e. “surplus vehicles” — left from Q2, it must be a vanishingly small percentage of Tesla’s quarterly production.

Gasbag

Huh? Tesla was trying hard to sell off every possible inventory vehicle at the end of Q3.”

trying is fine but the numbers say they failed to come close to achieving that goal and that is a good thing for Tesla Q4. According to the naysayers there was something like a 10k gap between Q2 deliveries and production numbers. I’m too lazy to validate that for you. The Q3 numbers were only a few thousand more than the Q3 production numbers. As has been noted with all deliveries in North America it the pipe can’t legitimately have that many vehicles in transit. The good news is that this will help Tesla pump up their financials in Q4. 2019 Q1 is going to have some challenges in matching the financial results from the prior 2 quarters.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…there was something like a 10k gap between Q2 deliveries and production numbers…The Q3 numbers were only a few thousand more than the Q3 production numbers.”

I presume all that is true, which means Tesla did a good job of catching up with the backlog of deliveries by the end of Q3… with some volunteer assistance from Tesla car owners.

The cars left undelivered at the end of Q3 would mostly or almost entirely have been from Q3 production, not from Q2 production. The only “inventory” that Tesla is gonna let sit around for 3 months or more is some of its demo and/or service loaner cars, and even most of those receive turnover fairly frequently.

What is that K you are talking about?

Roy_H

Should be lower case k, meaning thousands (of cars produced). Upper case K is Kelvin degrees temperature.

Gasbag

I think you need to infer the meaning from the context. He probably did mean to use a lowercase k as in 1,000 but he may have correctly meant K as in 1,024. It could also have meant the Boltzmann constant, Kelvin, or gold purity. Based on the context I’d infer he meant one of the first two. The delta is not that significant.

Will

No. I see them pulling in 28k this month

Roy_H

22k sounds about right. Tesla is still ramping up production rate. There will be a reduction when they shut the production line down for a number of days to upgrade the assembly line to push the rate higher probably next month.

rey

looks like some SHORTS are going to be burning, call the Fire Dept.

ffbj

Call the Coroner.

Jeff

Most short sellers would have covered their positions earlier this month when the stock price was $250.

Chris O

Really? Looking at Nasdaq numbers I don’t see any change in short interest.

Pushmi-Pullyu

A few months back, the “shorts” were using the image below to mock how Tesla fans were claiming everything was fine while Tesla was having some serious problems.

comment image

Now the shoe is on the other foot; it’s the “shorts” who are ignoring the fact that their house is burning down around them!

Karen

It’s perfect in every way

Dave S.

Once Tesla demonstrated they could build 5000 cars a week they turned their focus to reducing cost and changing the product mix. The first 5000 were all lr rwd cars with all hands on deck. Now they need to support 3 variants at a day to day labor rate. It took longer to get there, but I’m impressed. I’ll give them a year before I give them my money.

Roy_H

I believe the Bloomberg numbers are jus plain wrong. Elon said during the Q3 stock report that production was 5,300/wk at the end of the quarter. Meanwhile Bloomberg was claiming 4,200 with a disclaimer saying they don’t really know. Using the same VIN registration data and the same 13 week trailing average, I get a much different graph showing they are now about 5,700/wk and about 118k total production.

https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?attachments/model3vin_2018-10-27-png.2732/

Pushmi-Pullyu

I continue to be surprised that anyone who is following the “story” of Tesla is still paying attention to Bloomberg’s so-called “production tracker”, which should be renamed “Production wild guesser”.

Seems like a waste of time.

Prad Bitt

Why is the dotted curve going down?

Roy_H

Bloomberg’s downward curve must be because they believe production will be reduced in the coming week, possibly because they have info or assumption that Tesla will temporarily shut down the assembly line for more upgrades.

Dante

Bloomberg’s model is purely based on VIN reports and isn’t determined by short-seller fantasies.

Dante

Because the maximum reported vin # from owners have stagnated a little in their data, but part of the issue is that only a trickle of people are reporting and they’re slow to record the ones that do.

Rusty

Electrek has an insider reporting weekly production:
Total for October 25 000 and 4400 last week.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/26/tesla-model-3-production-week-q4/

Roy_H

I wonder how reliable their anonymous inside source is. I would think that someone inside Tesla would be risking their job to inform electrek of actual production rates.

Pushmi-Pullyu

From previous reports, it very much appears that Tesla feeds inside info to Electrek on a regular basis. I wouldn’t assume that Electrek is getting any of that info without the blessing of Tesla’s top executives.

But with Electrek’s chief editor Fred Lambert recently going into a meltdown over Tesla reducing the price on the Model 3 variant that Fred bought, leaving him with a severe case of buyer’s remorse, I wonder if the spigot of insider info is going to be shut off, at least until Fred walks back some of his over-the-top rants against Tesla.

John Doe

This is really good. If they can make that volume on average every year (at that factory), for the next 10-12 years with a facelift after 5-6 years . . The stock owners will be in happyland.

Roy_H

Tesla has now registered all the VINs they expect to produce by the end of the year, and probably some into next year. That means about 175k total production – 94,269 at end of Q3 = ~82k/13wks = an average production target of 6,300/wk

Roy_H

I wish those down voting my post would explain why. Do you think the VINs registered now include production far into the new year?

Dante

It’s probably because you say things that you make up as if they’re facts.

Roy_H

Number of registered VINs is widely accepted as fact, and | always use words like “probably” to make it clear that is my opinion or best guess. The math is real, the assumptions are my own, I thought I was making that clear, but thanks for pointing that out to me.

Roy_H

It just occurred to me that maybe it is my statement that “Tesla has now registered all the VINs … end of year.” Elon stated last week that people only had a few days to get their order in to qualify for full federal tax credit, and now we have seen a massive registration of VINs and the deadline has passed. Also my math shows 82k M3 for this quarter which is higher than most estimates. I think these facts strongly support my initial statement. So I guess I regard that part as fact, but it hasn’t been officially confirmed.

Threader

What modern ICE 4 door sedan weekly single factory production record could Tesla break? They obviously won hands over for BEV.

Roy_H

Interesting question. I think a fair comparison would have to include world wide production by other manufacturers as Tesla intends to sell M3 world wide in the near future. M3 outsold Toyota Corolla in the USA last month, but I am sure Toyota has many other plants in other countries.

Will

Camary and Accords

Threader

All Camrys or Accords coming from one factory each?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I doubt either Honda or Toyota makes any of their more popular models at just one assembly plant, worldwide.

If your point is that Tesla is probably now making more Model 3’s at its Fremont plant than any other auto maker is making of any individual model at any single one of their assembly plants, then likely you are right, so long as we’re talking about 4-wheel cars which are street legal in first world countries.

I wouldn’t be too sure that Model 3 production isn’t exceeded by some El Cheapo car made in China or India; cars which would not pass either U.S. or EU crash testing.

Doggydogworld

I believe all North American Camrys now come from Toyota’s plant in Georgetown, KY. The plant also makes the Avalon and Lexus ES variants. It can make 550k cars/year and 600k engines.

Ford makes a million pickups per year spread over four plants. Dearborn is the biggest at ~400k from three shifts on a single line.

Nissan claims 640k/year capacity at their Smyrna, TN plant. They make a bunch of different models there.

Modern auto lines run a 50-70 second takt time. Ford Dearborn is 53 seconds. Tesla’s GA3 is about 2.5 minutes these days. Toyota in KY and Nissan in TN have multiple lines.

John P

It’s the cumulative number that interests me. So that’s 100,000 cars that will never ever use a drop of gas. If I am doing the math right, if each does 10K miles per year that’s a billion miles per year. If the car they replaced did 25 mpg that means they are not consuming 40 million gallons per year. That must be beginning to show up in the oil company’s numbers. Does anyone know if they are noticing? And its getting worse for them at 5000 cars per week and that’s just Tesla. I mean soon we will see gas stations closing down right?

DJ

My neighborhood gas station is doing brisk business with Tesla owners, selling automatic car washes.

Ron M

We use about 400 million gallons of gas a day though so were a long way off still.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“That must be beginning to show up in the oil company’s numbers. Does anyone know if they are noticing?”

I seriously doubt it. That should show up first with an effect on oil futures prices, and so far as I know, there’s no sign of that being affected yet.

We should expect the increasing sales of gasmobiles in China and India, and other developing nations, to exceed the rate at which EV sales are eating into gasoline sales, at least for the next few years. I think that EV sales have finally entered the classic “S-curve” of growth, but we’re still near the bottom end. It will be a few more years until sales really start to eat into sales of new gasmobiles, and it will take a few or several more years after that before the new EVs on the roads displace a significant fraction of gasmobiles.

Gas stations has been closing in most developed countries for decades. But not because of EVs, EVs are not making any dents and probably will not for at least a decade.

Will

Saw a white one in shieffield Ohio

DavOHs

Friend just got one a few days ago. So much fun, hit 80 without a thought or a feel. Can’t wait for the rain to abate!

Benz

Tesla will probably reach a steady production rate of 10,000 Tesla Model 3 cars per week in Q4 2019.