Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Estimated 100,000 Units

OCT 12 2018 BY MARK KANE 48

Production pace still below 5,000 a week?

Bloomberg’s counter, which estimates production of the Tesla Model 3, today shows 100,050 units produced since August 2017 when the car hit the market.

The rough journey to 100,000, with a few significant delays, took 14 months. Assuming 20,000 cars a month, Tesla will now need just 5 months to reach 200,000.

Estimates indicate that Tesla has been unable to increase the production pace. Currently, Bloomberg shows 4,223 Model 3 a week. Of course, we all know the tracker has some issues, so don’t rely on it too much.

In total ,some 136,483 VINs were registered.

Production and deliveries of the Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and ≈55,840 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – already >5,782 produced (estimated)

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Bloomberg, Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Categories: Tesla

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

48 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Estimated 100,000 Units"

newest oldest most voted
Vexar

Meanwhile, Electrek is saying over 5,000 units a week was sustained:
https://electrek.co/2018/10/12/tesla-model-3-production-strong-quarter/

Gasbag

“Meanwhile, Electrek is saying over 5,000 units a week was sustained:”

The article says 7,400 TM3s. The date of the article is Oct 12. If that is for 11 days then that out to about 4,700 TM3 per week ((7,400 / 11) * 7).

Robert Weekley

Gasbag, Looks like headline math is your thing! Details say there was Columbus Day, as a day off, making 7400/10 = 740 per day.

740 x 6 days = 4,440;
740 x 7 days = 5,180.

Whereas you missed that day off, hence your difference in results.

Plus 4,440 + 5,180 / 2 = 4,810 (Average)

But, 5,180/Week @ 740 / day is a decent rate, since one week of Model 3 Production = 2-3 Months of most if its “Competitions” rate of Production!

BenG

So, holidays off don’t count? In the real world they do, unfortunately those get in the way of hitting unrealistic production estimates for longer time periods that generally will include a holiday or other down-time.

Joe Martin

They can both be correct. The Bloomberg tracker averages across a longer time period. It’s been very accurate at predicting average quarterly production, but it’s no good for determing what Tesla is producing in any one week.

Get Real

All in baby, with large scale comes excellent margins and profitability since Tesla can easily sell all it makes of this revolutionary auto that just so happens to be a compelling EV that will become as important as the Ford Model T in automotive history.

noleaf4me

And virtually 0 advertising costs!

GenSao

And the TesLike model is 4,443 units in the 1st week. Last quarter’s accuracy was 98.8%.
https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/model-3-order-tracker-spreadsheet.6219/

John

I wonder what the next Bar of Failure will be now that Model 3 production is exploding? The gnashing of teeth will be legendary.

EV Tart

No one wants M3. People all waiting for Audi (and waiting and waiting )

Pushmi-Pullyu

Nobody buys a Model 3 anymore; that car is too popular.

(Apologies to Yogi Berra.) 😉

Stanislav

And here you are with that stupid tracker…
Use Troys for gods sake not that of a FUD spreading bloomberg.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Bloomberg’s production estimator (mis-named a “tracker”) isn’t itself FÜD; it’s merely used to create FÜD by serial Tesla bashers who pretend it’s accurate on a weekly basis — contrary to Bloomberg’s own disclaimers. The estimator only somewhat approaches accuracy on a quarterly basis.

John Doe

As long as they can hold a stable profitable production with OK quality, it’s all good. Numbers will add up over the years this EV will be for sale. It will probably get a facelift in a few years, but may be on the market for 10 years or more.
If they manage an average volume of 100K over these 10 years, they will have produced a million cars.
Model S and X will also add up over the years, and then Model Y – which may be the biggest seller (if it looks good, and have good specs).
Add the EV volumes other manufacturers will produce (eventually) over time, lets say the next 10-15 years. . EVs will replace a lot of ICE models.

Dan F.

100k/year sounds very low. They are at 50+k/quarter already.

Ron M

They also built 4,100 TMS and TMX in the same period.

arne-nl

if Tesla get stuck at the 100k/year level (for the M3 alone I presume), they are in serious trouble since that’s nowhere near the volume to be able to produce it cost-effectively and compete with other EV offerings.

ziv

They are already at around 240,000+ a year for the TM3, even if they fall off from Septembers 22k sales by around 10%. Maybe his comment about 100k was for quarterly sales in 2019? 😉 Or the “average volume of 100k over those 10 years” is including the 5 years between 2013 and 2018?

Michal

I still don’t see why Model Y should be a good seller or even that great car that everybody is talking about, what am I missing?

Ziv

Because there are a lot of people that want the space and utility of a small to mid sized station wagon but wouldn’t be caught dead in a station wagon. Hence the popularity of CUV’s and SUV’s.
The X is just too large and too expensive for 90% of the car buying public.

Ron M

Well I’m hoping for 25,000 TM3 sales for October. I want them to beat Septembers number.

antrik

25,000? That would require significantly cranking up production over the next days, and/or significantly reducing in-transit cars compared to end of Q3… Neither seems very likely.

I suspect October deliveries will be similar to September.

Ron M

Well they sold 22,250 TM3 in September so hoping for 2,750 more is that much of a stretch.

antrik
It may not seem much of a stretch — but I think it is. By October 12th, reportedly they had produced 7,400. To get to some 26,000 (assuming about 1,000 go to Canada), they’d have to produce an average of ~6,800 per week for the rest of the month. Of course deliveries trail production. Going by the production rate of 5,300 cars over the last week of September, the ~8,000 cars in transit by the end of September would equal about 11 days of production. So the ~8,000 cars they had entering October, plus the 7,400 they made by October 12th, plus the rest they will make in October minus the last 11 days of October production, would have to add up to about 26,000. That would mean >10,000 cars would have to be produced in about 8 days… Even if production ramps very nicely, I think they’d need at least 3 or 4 more days for that. Of course if they further improve logistics, the back-log of in-transit cars by the end of October might be a little less than 11 days. On the other hand, considering the extreme delivery push at the end of September, I don’t expect… Read more »
Ziv

I would like to see 25k but suspect it will be 23k or 24k. But I would love to see Tesla prove me wrong, again.

PaulLee

I think Tesla cannot reach more than 5000/week model 3 now is due to most of the order are AWD. If you look up their delivery time, RWD is at 4 weeks while AWD stay at 8 weeks for a long time. This is unexpected to Tesla since most buyer are Californian. Why do they need AWD?

stimpacker

All the better to smoke you, my dear.
Well actually dunno why even my wife falls into this trap, but they all care about that 2-3 times a year going up to Lake Tahoe. So yea, we got the AWD too.
Funny thing is I drove to Lake Tahoe many times on my ICE V8 with Summer Sport Tires and had no issues. Blew past the slowpokes in their AWD SUV’s all hugging the fast lane.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…most buyer are Californian. Why do they need AWD?”

You’re confusing need with want. But then, so do a large percentage of car buyers. If only people who actually need AWD bought a car with that, then the number would be smaller. Quite possibly a lot smaller.

Jason

AWD has two motors. The motors are where the regeneration happens. Do two motors give better regeneration?
AWD should be slightly more efficient as you are driving all wheels rather than pushing/dragging one axle.

antrik

Yet it’s less efficient according to EPA testing…

(Not sure whether anyone has done real-world comparisons yet?)

BenG

You’re also dragging around more weight, and how often is the amount of regeneration actually limited by how much current the rear motor can generate from braking? Not often. Then, can the battery accept that much extra current for very long in those times when you’re braking harder than the rear motor can provide? No. You’re going to run up against limits of cooling the system.

In the Model S they did get more efficiency from two motors, but the Model 3 includes higher optimization including different types of electric motors on front and rear, which makes the rear motor more efficient alone.

antrik

The extra motor not only adds weight, but also friction. I suspect that might be single most decisive factor…

antrik

Keep in mind that AWD orders opened fairly recently, so there still is more pent-up demand to fulfil…

Tedfredrick

Fun

Milfan

Producing 100,000 vehicles is really a great achievement. First deliveries took place in July-2017 which means nearly 15 months presuming that the actual production started in mid-July and now it’s mid-October.

Having overtaken Model-X in sales, the next target for Model-3 to chase could be Chevy Volt which stands much higher at around 180,000 vehicles. Or probably Renault Zoe which is somewhat lower than that.

If Team insideevs can present an article on those plugins which has crossed 100,000 mark in sales, it will be nice. Thanks again for all your great work.

Jason

Even at 4,000 per week you’re looking at 200,000 per year.

antrik

IIRC production started in late July, and first deliveries were in late August?… (Though some would argue that deliveries didn’t *really* start before December…)

Regarding cumulative sales, I think you might be mixing up US vs. global figures. The Volt isn’t anywhere near 180,000 US deliveries; while Model X has been surpassed by Model 3 in the US, but probably not yet globally?… (Though getting very close — should happen before the end of this month I think…)

Milfan

More than 90,000 plugin vehicles were sold in China and this # combined with the sales in USA, Canada and rest of the World will definitely exceed the 176,000 mark set in December 2017. For the 1st time a non year end month may have the lead.

Despite a 12% drop in overall vehicle sales in China, the plugin sales increased by 58%.

antrik

Are you sure September sales never surpassed previous years’ December sales before?…

Roy_H

Reported production of about 4,700/wik is surprisingly close to my chart. It was an effort to understand Bloomberg’s first model chart based only on VIN registrations. I am using the same raw VIN data and the same 13 week trailing average, but get dramatically different chart. I must be missing something Bloomberg does that I don’t. However mine agrees closer to Electrek’s report.
https://insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?attachments/model3vin-png.2563/

However, I don’t agree with the people who think this rate is ok, we have been promised by Elon that production will be much higher and I expect this. Ultimate target is 10k/wk and I expect to see at least 8k/wk before the end of the year. My chart shows a fairly steady increase in production and hope it will continue.

Bryan

I would imagine that the production level is constrained as they figure out the delivery hell they are in. Unlike a legacy manufacturer they can’t just lay them in a dealership’s parking lot. They have to deliver everything they build If they can only move 4700 per week it doesn’t help to build 5000 per week. It only adds to the cost for storage and extra parts for cars you can’t deliver. So production has to follow delivery capabilities.

Christian Thomsen

If that really was s problem then they could just send a ship load of them to Europe.

Tedfredrick

They would be glad to have them

antrik

It’s not that easy. The cars for the European market need to be slightly different; they need to be homologised first; and they’d have to ship them before final assembly, which is done in Europe. Not something they can just do on a whim…

Roy_H

Just another bottleneck that is or even has been solved. I am sure Tesla is managing the ramp up as best they can, all areas must ramp up together. We hear about motor production ramping up, battery production with 3 new lines, pack assembly with 3 new robots, and problems with paint and delivery. These bottlenecks are areas where ramp up has not been as fast as expected. But don’t think that Tesla is standing still, 10,000 motors/wk is just a milestone, not an end.

BenG

They are struggling to break a sustained 5k/week and you expect to see 8k/week before the end of the year?

Maybe in ‘burst mode’ for a couple days, but other than that a sustained rate of 8k/week will probably take longer than the next couple months, in my opinion.

Bryan

At this point I don’t think production is the problem. They seem to be dealing with delivery more than production. I expect that that will continue through the end of the year and then the next hell will be service, support and charging infrastructure. By then the Y will be starting up and possibly the Semi. So it starts all over again. Just easier this time.

YVES LAURIN

100K!
Lets celebrate