Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Close To 1,000 Per Day, According To Musk

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NOV 30 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 132

That’s high.

In an email sent to Tesla employees, CEO Elon Musk offered up congrats on this amazing achievement of some processes at 1,000 Model 3s  per day.

Earlier this month, Tesla’s CEO suggested that 1,000 per day was likely achievable by November 27 or 28. Sure enough, it now appears as though the automaker has hit that goal on some, but not all fronts.

In an email sent to Tesla employees, Musk is now reportedly encouraging employees to continue to push to keep production at high. Musk wrote:

“If you are able to help in any way with getting Model 3 production to a steady 1000 per day at excellent quality, everyone at the company should please consider this their top priority. Body production currently appears to be our limiting factor, so it needs the most support right now. Please focus on simplification and reducing cycle time first and then uptime.”

Musk apparently commented on the situation regarding the base $35,000 Model 3 as well. As he states, cost-wise, Tesla is not quite there yet:

“It’s important to bear in mind that the cost of the car is made up of about 10,000 unique parts and processes. depending on how you count it, the current cost of a standard range Model 3 would be around $38,000, so each part or process step only costs around $3.80. That means finding cost efficiencies is a game of pennies, even though it might not seem so.”

Musk had previously stated that the base Model 3 would likely enter volume produciton in Q1 2019, so there’s still some time to drive down costs. Quoting Musk’s September comment:

“We will definitely offer a $35,000 version of the Model 3. And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery pack, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year. We would definitely honor that obligation, and we would do so right now if it were possible.”

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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

Source: Electrek

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132 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Close To 1,000 Per Day, According To Musk"

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A game of pennies? Cue the cello 😉

25k a month alone will be substantial.

Wait until the SR comes out.

Game changer.

Not in US. I suspect most initial SR buyers already converted to MR to catch the fed credit. If they manage to extend the credit then watch out!

I hope they do extend it.

Then the lovely lease deals will come into play.

MR orders require premium package which is $5k. I think most SRs ordered will have steel roofs. $9k is a pretty big step up.

It’s not the roof that’s the main point of the PUP. Most will want the heated seats and other stuff that comes with the package.

There’s basics cars with seat warmers.

Most EVs do, but for whatever reason, Tesla never offered heated seats in a base configuration of any model.

Huh? The model S and X have always had heated seats standard.

Never mind the clunky user interface, but the SOUND system is phenomenal. If Tesla puts an “average” audio system in the base model, the SOUND system alone will entice a lot of folks to move up to the Premium Upgrade Package.

As my wife says, “You don’t have to worry about sneaking up on people in that silent car because they can hear your music a mile away.”

Steel roof for my mines. I seen it The rain with glass and it had weird orange, purple, and blue hues it was off putting to him

New production doesn’t have the iridescent coating anymore.

I like it. Makes the car interesting on rainy mornings.

Sad that that is off putting to this person… If they understand that those coatings are why you can sit under glass without roasting. But if the look of a car when wet is that kind of problem… Well… Love my Model X and it’s golden Ruby coated glass roof. Tech is beautiful in it’s function.

Exactly how the one I witnessed in the rain looked. Super cool from a distance.

The newest one I’ve seen is around vin 85k and had a cool red sheen to it.

@Mark.ca
I suspect quite the opposite.
I know a lot of folks who on any other day, would only consider the Honda Accord, Toyota Camry that are now considering Tesla. $45K+ is still too much for them. They want a nice, good looking, low maintenance, long lasting, low depreciation family car. Hence their $30K budget (and unwillingness to consider a Volt/Bolt/Leaf).

Show them a Tesla, they’d be willing to stretch to $35K.
In California, AWD, heated seats, glass roof are not highly valued options.

AWD is a highly valued option in California for anyone who likes to go to Sierra in the winter. There are too many people do that already.

Nah, not value in California

If you’re doing any “winter” driving the bigger battery is a must, especially in the mountains. My “not even that cold weather” range loss looks to be about 30 percent at 40 deg F and 40 percent at 30 deg F (about zero Celsius). I’ll let you know in January just how bad the range loss is when the temp drops to below zero.

Is that including mountains?

My regular commute is fairly hilly through the mountains. My 3 LR with dual motor averages 280 Wh/mile. which is fairly close to EPA highway range claim. On cooler days I’m averaging 360-400 Wh/mile over a 50 mile commute.

The tax credit and the lack of need to buy gas more than makes up for the difference between 49k and 35k. I believe the lack of gas AND maintenance would make up the difference even without a tax credit.

Extending the Fed tax credit will give GM breathing room to develop electrified vehicles,if that happens it’s going to be “Life Line Secured for GM”

I’m done with GM. Hopping on the kia bandwagon

Our 3 has been simply amazing since March 2018. They are putting their pennies to good use. I can’t imagine how they will be able to produce the Semi and Model Y in 2019 and follow with the Pickup and Roadster II. It’s a good thing GM is cutting jobs and factories so Tesla can gather them up for a few more pennies and keep rolling. My stock in TSLA is going to Mars and beyond.

Lay off Twitter and weed, and muzzle rogue Silicon Valley racist workers then there’s a tens of millions right there. NASA admin will school properly

NASA has a bunch of self-righteous people who think highly of themselves. I used to know a few of them, but tried to keep myself away from them (that was when I was working in aerospace many years ago). I suppose the same culture is still there.

it’s worse with the current Administrator, who had a somewhat radical “tough on drugs” attitude in his prior political career.

I’m curious, does anyone with half a brain really think all Nasa workers never smoke weed, drink alcohol or snort coke once in awhile? For Nasa to make a comment on Elon for that podcast shows me why they have never gone beyond LEO in the last 40 years and everything is way overbudgeted for what we get in return.
I think Nasa should let Elon due some Nasa house cleaning.

Don’t need to be a rocket scientist… To figure this out…

What is your excuse Sméagol, er Spiegel?

“Silicon Valley racist workers”????

Well the quoted email doesn’t actually say they achieved 1000 ina day. Where is the rest of the email?

He congratulates the teams who achieved the 1000 rate on his two day “walk the line” test. He does not say whether all teams hit 1000 or not. It’s his nature to say so if everyone hit the goal, but we can’t know for sure. Paint shop at a 1305 rate is interesting, though. It’s been named as a problem in the past, but that’s almost it’s full design goal.

Also, running a section of the process at a 1000/day rate is different than actually producing 1000 cars in a day. This headline is incorrect.

Fixed headline and tweaked article. Thanks for the insight.

Depending on the “take rate” of the Autopilot and metallic paint options, they could probably start selling the SR Non-PUP right now and make money on it. That certainly how I plan to order mine.

Except they don’t have the smaller battery yet.

Yeah – I want a 3 with no auto pilot, standard paint, no moon roof, rear wheel drive. I think this will be a really fun car and easily kick my Ford Focus Electric to the curb. We have bells and whistles on our Model S and will take that on trips. I am excited to use the new 3 to bop around locally and to enjoy a more pure driving experience.

👍🏼

Agreed.

👏👏👏👏

The most annoying thing about my focus electric is that it’s front wheel drive, and the weight bias is rearward. Everyday I tackle an over pass from stop and I have a hard time not spinning the front wheels. Also doing a turn from full stop is also a wheel spinner. Wish it was rear wheel drive. Looking forward to a M3 as well. 🙂

Exactly – Other than that I have really enjoyed the car.

The LR with AWD and nothing else seems the most appealing. I need range and traction. I guess I also need about $55k?

Me too

Maybe if steel/ aluminum tariffs were lower by 25% and 10% respectively.
That might help.

Buy American. If American steel had the economy of scale and subsidies that other countries get then will be no issues but the steel business decided to buy cheap steal and close factories due to no tariffs

That is true, but the damage has been done. Raising the tariffs now, particularly by such large amounts, isn’t smart.

Free market enterprise means you buy from the manufacturer who gives you the best product for the best price. Tariffs distort the market. Very un-American.

Wow nobody pointed out that this is the first time in recent memory that Tesla nailed a timeline, assuming this came out yesterday and referenced Wednesday’s production.

That makes me think the production issues are really getting sorted out and it is just a matter of fine tuning. Nice.

That’s because the mail didn’t actually say that they produced 1000 M3s in a day, just that some teams (i.e. parts of the line) achieved that rate.

We adjusted the wording and the title for clarity. Thanks!

I wish they would just offer a non pup version of the Mid-Range.

Tesla likes to tout these ever-higher production run rates on the TM3 lines, but as I understand it, the numbers they keep touting as the latest milestone are just burst rates. This latest milestone certainly doesn’t indicate a sustainable run rate of 6000-7000 per week, as it might suggest to the uninitiated.

In other words: it’s a nice achievement, but touting it is mostly spin.

Yes, and it’s not even a burst rate for the entire line. And we don’t know if all “teams” achieved the 1000/day rate or not.

Good point. Adjusted article.

GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP EARTHLIINGS

Man, I’ve never heard that before.

Especially not in all caps.

Mr. G is a long time poster who has been given dispensation to write his particular catch phrase, which happens to be in CAPS. Apparently.

Cut and paste was hi tech in the 80s…

Meanwhile, the build quality, fit &f finish is kinda lame.

According to whom? Last I heard the firt and finish problems were pretty much a thing of the past

“problem histories” – yes, in the past. The problems are reducing considerably, just as Tesla did with the S and X. The first year of production of the S and X, respectively, were atrocious.

Consumer Reports shows 2017 S took a step backwards. 2018 looks very good so far.

The suspension problems have nothing to do with fit & finish issues…

I picked mine up Saturday 25, 2018 and it is perfect. Blue with Black interior. Paint is flawless the panel gaps that everyone is always harping about are excellent. Interior is flawless and the electronics all work as expected.

What exactly are you talking about?

More BS from a loser.

The Model 3 I took delivery of last month is flawless and the 50 plus I looked had likewise flawless fit and finish.

Your anti-Tesla pravduh is several months out of date. Do try to keep up.

Man, where’s bro1999 been lately?? Sure been quiet these last couple months.. Same with SevenElectrics, wonder where they went..?

Probably bought Model 3 and nothing to complain about. Change of user name, could be praising Tesla for all we know.
But really, who cares? Much nicer to read forums when we don’t have these ceaseless anti posts. I mean, what sort of life does a person have if they are prepared to waste time dealing with something they don’t actually like? Wouldn’t anyone prefer to interact with things they do actually like? I can understand once or twice, but ceaselessly negative for months and years, wow that’s really something!

Agreed! It’s interesting how the success of Tesla has taken care of the anti-EV crowd. And it has been pretty refreshing to see the return of the courteous and objective dialogue.

True. However, what you don’t see is that since we have a massive influx of new traffic and new users, there are many that don’t understand how to act in this comment section. This list includes a long list of ICE car lovers and harassers that fortunately get sent to moderation due to their terrible fowl language, insults, threats, etc. I’d day it’s up to some 30-50 comments an hour now, where it used to be about 50 in a 24-hour period. Oh, if I could only share these comments with you. Wow!

I was just noticing the return of some old favorites, that seemed to have run away with all the ani-Tesla FUD being spread.
I did call Trump a horses posterior once, but aside from that I tend to view foul language as a sign of incompetence and an inability to use language properly.
You can say a lot with words and still keep things civil.

Jeez, Steven, that’s ridiculous. I think those same folks are the ones that thumbs you down, because I see it now- those can’t be moderated (the thumbs down button). And there’s no reason that anyone here to be constructive would have a problem with your comment. Keep up the good work!

I really appreciate that Steven and the rest of his crew who deal with these of ICEholes, Breitbarters and short sellers who have no interest in EVs and in fact are only trying to spread their toxic anti-EV ideology/propaganda here so we can have reasonable conversations without their pollution.

As I said a few months back, we were supposed to switch to a new platform this fall that would require an official login system for commenting. However, our platform is working very well, so we are not changing. With that being said, we do have some ability to turn such a feature on in this platform, but we have some concerns that changing more settings could result in a mess. Already, since we made the settings more stringent a few months back, we still have several comments going to moderation that should not be. We are working to resolve that before we consider making any other changes. Fortunately, as you pointed out, many of our biggest problems and haters have seemed to stop attending the party.

That’s great.

🚙

GM threads

I was going to ask, but I thought it might considered inflammatory, but since you brought it up…
I think like anyone he has feelings, and his hero, GM, has a lot egg on their face ATM.
For years I have been his foil, and do respect his dedication, but not his opinions, and viewpoint.

Disappointed with GM

“Disappointed with GM”

Perhaps, but he shouldn’t be. All incumbent firms have their sizeable current strengths along with a perilous route to navigate to a future of electric drive, automation and shared mobility. A few incumbent firms are clearly making the critical moves which allow their current strengths to extend while enabling some freedom to morph as needed to navigate to these future markets. With what they have done over the past few years, GM is now clearly in that basket. No incumbent firm will survive without making moves along these lines. The pace of industry change is already accelerating as the up-slope of the S curve has been reached. In a year or so we’ll be at the point where most of these pending changes can no longer be denied. Our politics will need to catch up to that reality cause there is no stopping it and it will be wrenching to much of the economy.

I had assumed they were just among the blocked users I don’t read. There are lots of them.

I’m getting sick of hearing the reasons why they haven’t made the SR yet. If they can make the MR, which supposedly is the same pack with modules missing, that indicates they could make the SR the same way. Just be honest and say they are making way too much money with the current offerings. When they announced the Model 3 they started it would be US$35k, no hesitation, no fiddling about, just flat out US$35k. You don’t make that sort of claim if you haven’t crunched the numbers. And that was based on expectations of about 100,000 reservations. With 400,000 reservations that objective actually gets easier as you have more scale of economy to drive down costs, “hey supplier, I want 100,000 of those screens”, “no problem, that’s going to cost this much”. Now I’m asking for 400,000 of those screens, that just got a whole lot better price, no doubt about it. So even the SR with PUP would still be US$40k, and that stomps all over the competitors product. Hopefully they do get serious and offer the SR. We all know it will sell like hot cakes, and they will still upsell plenty of AP, PUP and… Read more »

You are correct, but the numbers they crunched back in 2016 were based on Musk’s Alien Dreadnought automation plan which failed. They had to rip out most of that stuff and hire thousands of underrated humans to assemble stuff and move things around. Between GF and Fremont they may have 10,000 workers more than budgeted. An extra two man-weeks per car is $4-5k fully burdened.

The Alien Dreadnought talk started only as a *reaction* to the reservation flood, and the resulting increase in required production capacity…

Also, they didn’t rip out “most of that stuff” — mostly just the conveyor system and parts of general assembly. Most of the Gigafactory, and major parts of the Fremont line, are reportedly highly automated.

Do you really not understand that the unit cost for making a Model 3 is significantly higher than Elon planned for, because he was overly optimistic about increasing factory throughput by replacing all the humans with robots, and speeding up the robots to move at eye-blurring speed?

We EV enthusiasts should be expressing thanks every single day that Tesla has been able to show a strong profit despite the TM3 unit production costs being higher than planned, and despite the failure of Elon’s vision of an “alien dreadnought” factory.

Jason, if you think it’s so easy to make and profitably sell a compelling $35k, 200+ mile, street-legal, highway-capable passenger car BEV, then why not start your own auto manufacturing company and show us how much better you can do than Tesla is. I’m not joking when I say that if you can do so, then I’ll be happy to cheer you on.

More jobs for humans and society good for Tesla instead of those droughtnughts

Nope, lower productivity is *not* good for society. That’s economic nonsense. (Unfortunately, most election campaigns are based on that nonsense…)

Musk never promised the $35k model would be the first on sale. Just like the S and X, we all knew (and he said it, many, many times) that the top trims would be offered first due to profit concerns.

The $35k model will come. It’s only a matter of time.

From August-October 2017 Tesla web site said 35k would be available in November, before they hit 5k, before AWD, before P. I realize they had to change the plan to survive, but Musk announced 35k for 2017, not 2020.

It sounds like if Tesla could make the batteries 7% to 12% better or 10% cheaper that would get Tesla to the honey melon it wants to be at.

Man, I love honey-dew melon..

If the whole car was made of batteries, then yes.

Thank you. It gets a bit tiresome seeing endless discussion about reducing the cost of the battery pack, as if that was the only cost involved in building a car.

A couple of years ago, a Tesla spokesman said that the cost of the Model S battery pack was about 25% of the entire cost of the car. Perhaps for the Model 3 it’s somewhat more, but battery costs have fallen since two years ago, and I seriously doubt the battery pack is more than 1/3 the cost of the Model 3… and perhaps even closer to 1/4.

Auto makers find ways to make cars less expensive as they continue to be produced. That’s why the unit cost for a model goes down over time, and either the profit margin goes up or the price goes down… or both.

The question isn’t whether or not Tesla will be able to sell the Short Range Model 3 (without PUP) at a profit. The only question is just how long it will be until Tesla can make that happen.

My guess is deliveries in 2nd quarter of 19.

That will only take them to 0% gross margin. Then there is OPEX etc.

Actually, the exact wording Musk used was “standard range” when talking about it costing 38k to build. Not “base model”, but “standard range”. If we assume that includes the premium interior, the car would sell for 40k (+1,2k delivery), so they would already be making a profit on the car today – just not enough profit to cover other expenses.

So, Tesla should be on track to build approx 500,000 EVs in 2019?

No.

Even if they actually make 1000 Model 3s in a single day by yearend, which would be a real achievement, that translates to about 65k for Q1. They no longer plan to exceed 7000/week in Fremont, so let’s estimate Q2/3/4 are 70k/75k/80k. That’s 290k in Fremont, plus 100k S/X for 390k total.

Add to that Shanghai production, which I estimate will start in September and reach 2000/week by yearend. That adds ~20k for 410k global production across all models. Roughly 4x 2017 production and quite an accomplishment.

I kind of doubt the Shanghai will be make 2K cars/week by the end of 2019 – That’s a really aggressive startup time, considering they are starting from an empty field… Regardless of what Elon says – to quote Scotty, “I can’t change the laws of physics, Jim”

GA4 in a 300 meter tent does 1000/week. I figure they’ll start with that then extend or duplicate it.

Pretty sure GA4 does significantly more than 1,000 per week by now… It’s supposed to be on par with each of the GA3 lines.

I actually estimated 390K Teslas produced in 2019, so we have pretty similar estimates.

Well I think Musk said last month most of the problems with the Model 3 production have been resolved. That the lack of batteries was slowing production on the TM3 but they were working on adding 3 new battery production lines. So maybe the battery production lines are in operation and that’s why TM3 can achieve 7,000 a week production.

Tesla is a long way from a sustainable production of 7,000 Model 3’s a week. This is just like when Tesla first touted 5,000 TM3’s a week, but it wasn’t until months after that when a run rate of 5,000/ week became sustainable.

When Tesla hit 5k, the said it was a burst rate. When they hit 7k, they said sustained. That’s the difference.

They didn’t hit 7k.

There’s been quite a bit of fluff generated by this one. The Tesla fans and haters are both all over it trying to spin it their way. The first thing we need to understand is that this is (allegedly) an internal communication. It’s been leaked, but not by Musk himself. I say allegedly because there were some arguing that it wasn’t legit. I’ll assume that it is real for now because anyone faking it would get called out pretty quickly. The email is written to a specific audience and not to the general outside world, so it is vague on some details and unusually specific on others. Before trying to read anything into that, it’s important to understand the audience it is written for. It is also not clear (from what I’ve seen) what date the email was sent on. Many commentators are inferring that the email says that they’ve hit 1000 per day. I don’t see that. To me, it sounds like they’re almost there, but still a bit short in one or two areas. Body production is called out for attention, but this is where the detail is most lacking; we don’t know how far behind they are… Read more »

Now all The Shorts, Naysayers & Tesla Haters Can Eat* Their HUMBLE PIE ! ……………. 🙂

By Request. They don’t need no Doctor, just a good analyst.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2UIrxSgCpA

Bahahaha

It’s Bah Humbug ! It’s Christmas time !……… lol….. 🙂

Rite On ! Great Tune ! …………. 🙂

Elon is being more positive and upbeat that the base Mod3 will definitely be possible,even giving clues about the battery.
Mod3 SR by 1st Qtr. “Promise Secured”

Lol

” depending on how you count it, the current cost of a standard range Model 3 would be around $38,000″

This is my biggest take away.

Does that mean Munro report was full of BS?

Interesting question. I’d have to go back and read exactly what the Munro report stated. However, Munro could only provide estimates of costs. I’m sure many of those estimates are quite close, but there would be many assumptions that go into those estimates, and there is little that can be assumed about the details of Tesla manufacturing.

As it says, it depends on how you count it. Munro was likely counting the costs of parts and assembly. Musk may be including other costs.

“Please focus on simplification and reducing cycle time first and then uptime”

That is focusing on long term cost reduction instead of short term delivery goals.

I agree with Elon on that.

Just put a steel roof and regular cheap materials and boom a $35k car

20k-23k for model 3 these month

Congratulations to all those who worked hard to make this happen. 1,000 / day is really a great milestone which mean 21,000 – 22,000 vehicles / month @ 5workdays / week.

I hope they will start selling in Europe soon and give a chase to their dieselmobiles.

The factory is running 24*7.
When sustained for a month it is ~30,000 Model 3.

> the current cost of a standard range Model 3 would be around $38,000, so each part or process step only costs around $3.80. That means finding cost efficiencies is a game of pennies, even though it might not seem so. Take a second to reflect on that, and you’ll notice that there’s no logical connection whatsoever between the premises and the conclusion. Each step or process costs ON AVERAGE $3.80. That tells you absolutely NOTHING about whether it’s a game of finding pennies! It could still be the case that 2% of the processes account for 90% of the cost. Or literally ANY other distribution of costs. He might as well have said “it’s cloudy today; that means that finding cost efficiencies is a game of finding pennies”. Very surprising to see Musk, the radical who wants to reinvent the factory, talk in this way. Not just because of the extremely weak reasoning, but also the low ambition. It’s difficult to see how the “journalist” could fall to spot such deceptive technique, since he uses similar tactics himself. Here we got the headline > Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Close To 1,000 Per Day, According To Musk but immediately… Read more »

Tesla has yet to do just two consecutive weeks over 5,000 units (Bloomberg, Troy Teslike, et al).

I’m too lazy to find his exact quote, but I distinctly remember Elon saying during an earnings conference call something like, “No doubt we will be at 10,000 units per well by end of 2018.”

Not even halfway there.

As a new owner, I’m thrilled I got mine already. As a shareholder though I am very disappointed in these production numbers.

109 comments – is that a record in a 24 hour period?

Am I the only one that sees this as worrisome?:

“…the current cost of a standard range Model 3 would be around $38,000…”

Sounds pretty high compared to the fact that they have already seriously ramped up production. At what volume will they reach 35K and when?

According to the Bloomberg tracker, ramping up seems to have stalled (on average) for the last 2-3 months. Is this tracker accurate at all?

It seems to me we will have to wait at least 6 months for a $35K Model 3. Perhaps even a full year.
We will wait an see.