Number Of Identified Tesla Model 3 Orders In Europe Close To 20,000

Tesla Model 3 in Europe

FEB 5 2019 BY MARK KANE 90

Almost 2/3 of the Model 3 were ordered in Norway, the Netherlands and Germany

The voluntary dataset of Tesla Model 3 orders placed in Europe currently indicates over 19,300 (as of January 31, 2019), which is roughly 5,500 more than a month earlier.

As not all customers were willing to add their order to the list, and only top of the line versions are available, we can safely bet that more than 20,000 people are waiting for their cars.

The latest data shows also that the number of orders increased in all major markets. Norway’s share – with over 5,100 – decreased from one third to more than one fourth. On the other hand, the Netherlands went up from less than 8% to 20% and becomes the second biggest market (over 3,800) according to the data.

So far, the best selling models in Europe (Nissan LEAF, Renault ZOE) had around 40,000 sales in 2018, so the Tesla Model 3 has a big chance to become #1 this year.

Tesla Model 3 orders in Europe โ€“ February 5, 2019

Source: Tesla Model 3: Europe Orders

Categories: Tesla

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90 Comments on "Number Of Identified Tesla Model 3 Orders In Europe Close To 20,000"

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> Market penetration per 1mio inhabitants: 971

1,000,000 / 971 = 1030.

So to put it another way, one out of every thousand Norwegians has already ordered a Model 3.


(I’m fairly sure that’s not right, of course, but can someone tell me what exactly this stat does mean?)

im fairly sure that more than one of 1000 Norwegians have ordered the car. Where i live is more like one out of 300
If just Tesla could share some light on the hitch option, ill place my order immediately. As a first day reservation holder ive been waiting for a while.. So please Elon.. bring it on!

There are aftermarket hitch options. I added one to my Model S 3 years ago and have been very happy with it.

Yes ive heard of some aftermarket parts, but in Norway and proberbly EU im only alowed to a bike rack with those for the time being
To USE a trailer we need type approval and Tesla has to do this paperwork

If this really is an accurate figure, it’s pretty mind blowing.

This is before the standard range or even medium range versions are available. It’s actual orders, not pre-orders, so this is people who want to have a Model 3 right now; there are bound to be a lot of people for whom the timing just isn’t right to buy the car immediately, but will want to order later.

I know Norway has some pretty sweet incentives, but all the same, that’s absolutely crazy demand for a single vehicle model.

How many vehicles are there in Norway per person? It feels like this time next year, every second car there is going to be a Tesla.

I think you’re right, Norway has a population of a little over 5 million, so with over 5000 orders that is indeed roughly 1 Model 3 order per 1000 Norwegians.

Yes 5000 orders in just one month where Tesla have been taking orders. When Tesla get the hitch option Norwegian Tesla sales will go bananas. Perhaps Tesla has delayed it deliberately to allow more time to build out Tesla sales and service center capacity in Norway.

I think Tesla is calling the “hitch option” the “Model Y”. ๐Ÿ˜‰

No the Model 3 will get one. I saw a You Tube video about how to install one by yourself and the vehicle is prepared for it. They just need to get to it and there are so many things to do and they want the production to be as simple as possible for now because it is easy to ship all they can make.

ยจThe car must be approved with a hitch option from the factory first. If not, it is not legal to add a hitch, no matter if another company makes a hitch that will fit the car.
Will result in a ticket, and the plates will be removed from the vehicle – and if have to be towed to a place where the hitch has to be removed, and then controlled again. . adding cost in every step of the way..

My point is just that it can be done so nothing to prevent Tesla from offering that option at some point in time. The video I saw was you tuber Ben Sullins Teslanomics . He added a hitch to his own Model 3 but got a professional to do it and made a video about it.

“The car must be approved with a hitch option from the factory first. If not, it is not legal to add a hitch, no matter if another company makes a hitch that will fit the car.”

It’s completely legal in the USA. You must be quoting European regulations. That’s appropriate for this article, which is about Model 3’s shipped to Europe, but we still should take care to note that’s not the law in the USA.

In the U.S., anybody can install an aftermarket or 3rd party trailer hitch on any car. Contrariwise, in Europe, a car must be specifically built for towing for it to be legal to install a hitch on one.

I suspect y’all are having an argument based on the difference in regulations, not on the actual engineering of the Model 3.

The Model 3 isn’t rated for towing, period. That is specified in the manual. And the idea that Tesla is going to re-engineer the car so it will be… well, seems to me that’s very clearly wishful thinking.

I believe you are right
Last week Tesla club Norway had an article where they showed some new drawings from Tesla where hardware were added from Jan. 9

So this is 19,300 people volunteering to add their name to an unofficial list, but not the actual list of people who have ordered the Model 3. Since the list does not help them get their car faster, I expect the actual list is much larger than 20k which is fantastic. And this is the high spec model before the availability of the base model that should be available next year.

What is your point with this old news about an already corrected sitiation? Trolling is lame.

OMG he’s linked to a re-post of a Tesla bashing FรœD piece from the Detroit News. Talk about lame!

Wow trolls ordering moderators to sanction links that are unrelated to the article. Only on insideEVs….

Posting ludicrous BS like this makes it a lot harder for everybody to point out real issues Tesla has.

It has become a running joke that diehard Tesla bashers are so obsessed with the number of cars in Tesla’s temporary storage lots. That is, the joke is on them, and they don’t seem to recognize how much they’re making a fool of themselves!

The only “story” there is how wildly wrong people were in forming conclusions about Tesla’s production and/or the demand for Tesla cars, based on counting Tesla cars in random temporary storage lots.

There is one, and only one, correct conclusion which can be reached by counting an increasing number of cars in various temporary storage lots: That the number of cars Tesla makes and sells keeps growing!

Hey, Tesla bashing dude: Tesla won; it’s now showing a net profit. You Tesla bashers lost. Get over it!

Keep going Tesla!

Yeah, remember Dave “Green” and his obsession with…satellite photos from Reeking Alpha showing lots of Model 3s or, my favorite, the dumpster fire at the Fremont Tesla factory!

Seeking Alpha also says that Model 3 will have a huge problem with European homologation , they will be stuck with loads of cars that they can’t sell. Oh wait, that’s right they passed already.

But then Tesla won’t have enough cash to pay their March debt. Oh wait, they do have enough?

Lots of noise out there.

lol “As customers revolted”

I heard that some GM Customers “ReVolted”, too…. When they added a 2017 Volt to the Driveway, to sit beside their 2012 Volt!

40k for the whole year? They’ll sell twice that many. They have to.

Some of these orders are probably for multiple cars, from leasing companies and such. The hope is 20k orders represents something like 30k cars. We’ll get another clue when they open up orders for LR or MR.

The netherlands figure is wrong. The netherlands has 2000 less orders.

Just because the oh-so green government decided to chabge the tax rules! More Model 3, less Model S/X. The latter implies more customers wiil stick to an ICE polluter car instead of going EV. Shame on the government!

If you include orders through leasing companies (which have another invoice sequence) the number will no doubt be correct anyway. Most people order through a leasing company.

20,000 sounds like a lot, but compared to the total number of reservations reported at one time, ~455,000, it’s not that large a percentage.

I wonder how many reservation holders are holding out for the lower priced Standard Range version? I’m guessing it’s a fairly sizable percentage.

Tesla’s customer deposits sits at 1 billion USD has so for a year going. That would be enough for 1 million Model 3 reservations but the picture is blurred by reservations for Semi and Roadster as well. I am confident Tesla still got over 350k on the reservation list for Model 3 mostly waiting for cheaper versions and a Model 3 with a tow hitch.

Customer deposits were 793m at end of Q4, down over 100m from the prior quarter. I figure the drop was mostly Model 3 since there’s little reason for Roadster, Semi, etc. depositors to get refunds (except those “journalists” getting free Roadster payola, ha).

They added some new items to Customer Deposits last year. Payments for maintenance plans, maybe? Anyway, those increased the total and hid the decline as reservation holders converted to buyers. Tesla’s said Model 3 reservations were 455k in July 2017 and 420k in Spring of 2018. I don’t see any way it’s still over 350k, but I might believe 300k.

AIUI the Customer Deposits figure includes not only reservations, but also non-refundable deposits paid when placing an actual order. It’s down most likely because there were few outstanding US orders at the end of Q4, unlike end of Q3.

Elon Musk himself let slip that affordability is a demand inhibitor which I take to mean a lot of the reservation list was for the $35K car. Still 20K reservations for a BMW M3 price equivalent is pretty impressive.

Affordability is inferred when the company surveys Reservation Holders, and get the response that they are waiting for the Base Model 3, easy enough!

But what does it mean, if they are just waiting for the Tow Rating Certification, but can’t select that, as a reason to delay commiting the order?

20K doesn’t sound like a lot – let’s think that potential buyers are waiting it for 2 years, maybe 3. An avalanche of orders was expected once they open the “gates”. It makes no sense to be a reservation holder, Tesla can deliver model 3 without problems by now. I don’t think there are many reservation holders by now. Tesla has a 7000k cars/week capacity, sales in the US for January are far from exciting, not only model 3 but also model X and S (both models sold a lot less compared to last January). If Tesla sell half of the cars in the US for 2019 quarters when compared to Q4/2018 (not very optimistic but I think it’s not insanely low) Tesla can sell around 150k cars in the US during 2019. With 7000 cars per week they will have more 214k cars to sell elsewhere… let’s round it to 200k cars. From those 200k cars, Europe seems the best bet, Japan doesn’t seem very keen about EVs, the car is still very expensive in China, rest of the world is “not that big”. Let’s assume 150k for Europe what gives 12.5k cars per month in average. So if… Read more »

Again, you are wrong. Model S and X sales are up from last January. Where are you guys getting your data? And, why does it matter one bit, unless you have short stock interest. They’re a hugely successful American automaker working against much adversity. Are you an EV fan and lover? Are you supporting the transition? If so, you should be jumping up and down and reveling in what Tesla has accomplished, even if you don’t like the company. Otherwise, you just spew and reiterate hate. But, for what reason? I’m just so confused by all the hate. I don’t own a Tesla and I’m not a huge fan. I have some issues with the company as a whole. But still, as an EV advocate I’m joyous over Tesla’s momentum and push.

You are right – or at least one site shows a different number from the other. Anyway I think 150k cars for 2019 for US seems a good estimate ๐Ÿ˜› (as I said maybe a bit pessimistic, but I was expecting quarter over quarter 70% for model 3 and January didn’t look good, so I’m being more pessimistic now).

I stand corrected, but yet again a site was showing probably wrong data.
I have no hate or love for Tesla. I think EVs are superiors in every aspect… except batteries.
Where there’s hate in my post?
Again 150k is not a very optimistic number, but I would be very surprised if Tesla could sell more than 200k cars in the US during 2019 – with current models without big discounts (discounts that probably can’t do as profits are already low and they started the year with $2k discount – not really but well… )

“I think EVs are superiors in every aspectโ€ฆ except batteries.” Aghh – wha?

Yes Alex – showing your Russian Bott short seller roots which is so very transparent to everyone who is a true EV enthusiast on this site; the poor english, the constant bashing. I don’t understand why you troll this site when everyone knows what you are up to.

Why don’t you do your own estimation? ๐Ÿ˜›
By the end of 2019 we see if I was having too much hate or you too much love (that is by all means more positive).
The winner gets a free beer ๐Ÿ˜›

I think you are spot on Steven
We must not forget that EVs, in particular Tesla impose an exitensional threat to many of the worlds biggest and mightiest industries.. some years down the line..
of course they wont die silently, and they wont change to be greener or better for consumers
The ev Disruption is getting momentum, ill put my bet on the companies driving the change,

Well said, sir… but you meant “existential threat”. #GrammarNazi

It appears to be down to the reputation “Alex” gained for himself on this forum.

Personally I don’t mind people being critical of Tesla but there is people making a career (maybe literally…)of posting negative views on Tesla. When the pattern becomes clear even comments that don’t sound too unreasonably become objectionable. Guess “Alex”is such a case.

Actually I believe Alex is Alexandra from comments she has made before – not that it really matters. It also makes sense with the Eastern block connection – just saying..

She said “how do you know I am a boy?” on one of my comments calling her “shortboy” – lol and uses the word silly more than any man I have ever met. I wish more women participated on this page – it is kind of a boys club.

Do you already knows my gender?
Careful, genders can be a complicated matter these days. If I were you I would rather discuss the influence of earth color when growing carrots.

Do you want do discuss my gender or EVs?

I would love to discuss EVs but unfortunately you seem to be more interested in bashing Tesla. What EV currrently produced do you deem to be superior? What current EV outsells Tesla in the US? My guess is you don’t even own an EV and that you troll this site to instill FUD in the whole concept of EVs. I personally own 2 EVs and am a strong believer in the transition to a sustainable future and away from petro -chemical propulsion. Where do you stand Alex? Enlighten us.

You know you haven’t said a smart think about EVs. But let’s decompose your post. First you take as giving that I want to bash Tesla and that I’m not ready to discuss EVs. If you read this discussion started because I made an estimation (guess based in my opinion) about Tesla sales, that were actually very optimistic for Europe, way more than the 20k delivers some are all excited about. A bit pessimistic for the US and explained. You after that seem to want to argue about the cars I own, how that explain my knowledge about EVs, clean energy, … ? Can you explain your reasoning. After that you seem to want to brag about your supposed moral superiority because you own 2EVs – I wonder why do you need 2, isn’t that a waste of resources?! It’s irrelevant if I’m for EVs or against (and I’ll say it again, electric vehicles are better in almost anything except batteries, but in time they’ll be basically all the cars), you should take my prediction, say why am I wrong, and why not make your own predictions. Again I’ll be the first one saying “I was wrong” if my predictions… Read more »

Do you know that? Or you use the same intelligence to say that I’m wrong?
Do you want to make a bet you’re wrong again?
The challenge was made ๐Ÿ˜‰

Why don’t you post your numbers for Tesla sales in the US.
For how much do you think I’m wrong?

insideEVs is a pro Tesla site far from being fair. More the so called journalist is silly making false accusation about me being a short – that I’m not. My mistake was to believe the site goodcarbadcar that have the monthly sales for Tesla messed up – although correct overall for the year. Tesla did many things right, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to sell half of the cars off the world. Sometimes I’m wrong but I’ve no problem to stand corrected like I’ve just did. I never write impolite comments and I never make silly deduction like the so called journalist did about me – and he is not right, he is WRONG! What kind of journalist is that? You decide that. ๐Ÿ˜‰ Plus I never down vote polite comments even if I have a different opinion. Again sometimes I’m wrong, but I’m more often right about Tesla than Elon Musk – and he must have more inside information ๐Ÿ™‚ I understand Americans want so bad that Tesla conquer the world, but I’m not American, for me Tesla to succeed is as good as rivian, VW, byd, Tata, … or any other. I’m a consumer primarily. In February… Read more »

You just confirmed all of our suspicions – thank you.

Thanks for saying why… that says a lot ๐Ÿ˜‰

Our? Are you a bunch of persons, or you’re a collective mind like the Borg (star trek)?

“why does it matter one bit, unless you have short stock interest. ”

It matters to those with a long interest, too. Also those who are thinking of a long or short interest.

Very true, indeed.

I don’t invest much in stocks, but recently I made a huge profit (percentage) with Tesla buying below $300 and selling above $350. It was the easiest money I did in a long time.
I never shorted any stock and I don’t even find very elegant beting a company will go down, even if I understand that in the end it’s all about money.

It’s also a bit silly that insideEVs has a history of deleting polite comments like it happened recently with a story about a Subaru using 400% more energy when using sky racks!
I’m a bit puzzled why they haven’t deleted my comments yet… I guess they’re having pleasure of all the Tesla fanboys trying to discuss if I’m a short or not ๐Ÿ˜‰

Sometimes the moderation settings inadvertently deletes comments. I try to catch them all and reinstate them, as long as they aren’t inappropriate.

You’re not being fair – sorry. The comments were deleted and blocked intentionally with the argument that the article was corrected, but it wasn’t, it was changed but the deceiving title was kept. The article was “attacked” and inside EVs instead of doing like I just did – admitting I was wrong – decided to silent the opposition.
I never posted an inappropriate comment, my comments are my opinion that sometimes it’s wrong, but is never my intention to make people belie I’ve a crystal ball.
I always try to base my posts on facts and reasonable thinking.

I try to spend time in the comments every day. If I make a mistake, I admit it here and fix the article. Sometimes I fix other people’s articles as well if something seems misleading or something is brought to my attention. However, the system is not perfect. I appreciate your comment and I appreciate your honesty. Thank you.

We’ll see. On one hand Europe should be an “easier” place to sell the TM3 for a number of reasons (e.g. high gas prices), on another hand they already have other – and cheaper – EV’s available, like the Kona and the Zoe.

No it’s not. Model S or X sell way more in the US than the leaf, not in Europe.
Model 3 will sell a lot less in Europe compared to the US.
Again I dare anyone saying I’m wrong.

“I donโ€™t think there are many reservation holders by now.”

What a serial Tesla basher like you “thinks”, or pretends to, has little if anything to do with reality.

Also keep in mind that Tesla is only taking orders in select countries, not the whole of Europe. So these “low” numbers aren’t low at all.

They are taking orders in all European countries that matters.

Uk is out as far as I know, UK is one of the biggest European countries – add Ireland.

Why this comment was down voted?! Can someone give a reasonable explanation?
Maybe Lichtenstein is the biggest country in Europe ;).

My guess is that for some people it is now a personal thing. They see “Alex” and it is automatic down vote no matter the content.

It’s good, Tesla just lowered the price of model 3 in the US by $1100… due to huge demand.
As I said my numbers were for the same models, without discounts, I’ll be happy to revise my estimates after this.
The problem is that Tesla profit was $150m last quarter and they’ve discounted about $3100 since 2019…

Pretty much, yeah. Just as some Tesla bashers apparently give all my posts a down-vote regardless of what I actually say.

There you go, you have a up from me ๐Ÿ™‚

Yeah, I wish the article would make that more clear. The 20,000 figure isn’t an indication of current demand for the whole of Europe, only for a few countries.

20,000 is just voluntary reporting. The real question is: how many people who ordered M3 in Europe cared to go to some website to report it? I would say not so many.

Like I said, Europe must have ordered a lot more model 3, in the first quarter it should be enough to absorb all Tesla production.
The big question is for how long and what are the sustained sales for the entire year.
People are complaining about but my prediction for 2019 is 150k for Europe, 50k for China and 150k (maybe 200k) for the US – those are the Elon musk numbers (360k to 400k).

360-400k is for all models, not just the 3. I figure roughly 290k 3s and 90k S/X.

I was referring to all cars, not just model 3.
I must admit that 150k for Europe is very very optimistic, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ll be below 100k.

Some (I think quite a few actually) are waiting for the LR RWD to return. Why in China and not in Europe? It canยดt be that difficult to leave out one motor. Common Elon, bring it back on and satisfy even more (potential) customers.

Tesla has everything in place for 3K Model 3 deliveries per week in the EU. It’ll probably come out lower than that, since I imagine they won’t deliver many in the first month of each quarter, but I think we’ll see at least 100K sold in the EU alone this year.

Model 3 is going to crush even bigger in Europe than it did in North America. They’ll beat 40k units by Q2 easily. In the meantime, orders in NA will continue where wait times are now around two weeks. And later in the year when the base Model 3 becomes available, god it’s just gonna be bonkers. I can’t wait to see it all unfold.

When were orders in North America not “around two weeks”? Do you have evidence wait times have increased? The web site says “February” for all three variants of Model 3, “late February” for S/X.

Careful Tesla fanboys will insult you and down vote your comment just because they don’t like the messenger – regardless of how wrong or right you are.

Apparently you enjoy being wrong… you do it so frequently! ๐Ÿ™„

Yeah, I will be surprised if 2019 deliveries in Europe for the Model 3 match the 2018 U.S./Canadian delivery numbers, let alone exceed them.

On the other hand, demand in Norway and Netherlands is apparently extremely high… maybe I’ll be surprised!

What is the fascination with this “voluntary sheet” anyway? Only Tesla has the real numbers…which are obviously higher that the sheet since i suspect many future owners don’t even know about it.

Tesla just discounted model 3 by $1100. I will be happy to revise my predictions in face of this.
But it’s not because of huge demand Tesla is doing this… or maybe it is, I’m the hater with twisted reasoning ๐Ÿ˜‰

By the way, source is electrek.

19 comments by Tesla basher “Alex” in one single comment thread. Are you getting paid by the post by some Russian troll farm?

Here’s hoping you get banned very soon.

Is there a limit for number of comments? Why would you like to get me banned? Was I impolite with you? Do you think this forum should be limited to Tesla lovers? Do you have something against Russians?
I would like you to answer those questions… not really… By the way, now they are 20 comments ๐Ÿ˜‰

Did they discount it in Europe? I thought it was only discounted in the US to compensate for the reduced Federal incentives.

If they discount it in the US too much (to compensate for the loss of tax credit) could the price disparity get to a point where it is cheaper to buy in the US and ship internationally? I have a real dislike of tax subsidies. At least where I live it tends to be that the price is artificially inflated to absorb that subsidy, so the end consumer doesn’t actually benefit the way the government intended. And the government is usually not smart enough, or have enough resources, to put the controls into the system to prevent the price gouge. I have no idea why Tesla dropped their prices, but given it only happened in the US it seems to be a tax related drop, so to my mind that tells me they always had their vehicle priced higher with the expectation that they can lower the price when the tax incentive reduced. I think it also shows that the Federal Government didn’t really think this incentive through very clearly as early innovative companies get penalised at the point in time when the product becomes viable and more options enter the market. You would have thought a better system would… Read more »