Tesla Model 3 Could Be The Next Toyota Camry

3 months ago by EVANNEX 135

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

UNIVERSAL APPEAL: COULD TESLA MODEL 3 BE AS BIG A MASS MARKET HIT AS THE TOYOTA CAMRY?

We recently profiled Gene Munster, one of the most revered Wall Street analysts that covers Apple. Munster has a five star rating and ranks a stellar 21 out of 4,592 analysts on Tip Ranks (99.5th percentile). He’s been showing up on the financial networks discussing his outlook for another tech innovator, Tesla.

His company, Loup Ventures*, argues that the “Model 3 could change the world” in their most recent research report. Munster chose a surprising car to stack up against the Model 3. No, not the Chevy Bolt — the Toyota Camry.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 release candidate spy photo (Reddit: Fewwordsbetter)

For 14 years running, Toyota Camry has been America’s best-selling car.

That said, Loup Ventures compared the Model 3’s total cost of ownership with “the Toyota Camry because it’s a good example of an affordable quality car sold in the U.S. At first glance, Camry is in a different segment than the Model 3, given that a Camry costs an average of 42% less than an average Model 3 and Camry is an ICE (internal combustion engine). However, looking at total cost of ownership, the price gap closes based on savings from fuel, insurance maintenance, and repairs, ultimately yielding a 13% price difference over 5 years.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

Tesla Model 3

Munster pits the Model 3 against the Camry (Source: Loup Ventures*)

The Model 3’s lower cost of ownership could allow Tesla to tap into a bigger market than ever before. Munster concludes:

“Owning a Model 3 is only 13% more expensive than owning a Toyota Camry over a 5 year period…. [so] based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model 3 expands Tesla’s addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in North America alone.” Could this mean mass market success for Tesla? “If Tesla captures 25% of this 11 million vehicle addressable market by 2025, Tesla would generate $105 billion in annual revenue from the Model 3.”

With a smaller-than-expected price difference, which car is the better value?

“Tesla wins over a Camry when it comes to customer experience, due to its acceleration, Autopilot, elimination of gas station stops, and the high-quality entertainment system. There is evidence of this in a Consumer Reports survey, where 91% of Tesla owners state they would ‘definitely’ buy their cars again, the highest rating of any automaker. The next two closest automakers were Porsche at 84% and Audi at 77%.”

Meanwhile, Toyota came in fifth place with 76%.

Tesla Model 3

Consumer Reports latest ‘Car Brands Ranked by Owner Satisfaction’ results (Source: Consumer Reports)

And don’t forget the viral nature of Tesla ownership:

“As more Teslas find their way onto the road, the general public will become increasingly aware of the benefits of Tesla ownership and likely view the 13% total cost of ownership difference as insignificant. We expect this ‘see it and want it’ phenomenon to cause an acceleration in Model 3 demand.” This, in turn, could open up the coveted Tesla brand to the masses. Munster predicts, “the Model 3’s value, in combination with its technology, has the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles.”

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

As Tesla’s Autopilot is perfected, Big Auto will be left behind: “Detroit, Japan, and German car manufacturer feature shortfalls will compound around the end of 2020 when Tesla adds autonomy to approximately 2 million Teslas on the road virtually overnight… Note that every Tesla sold today has the hardware for full autonomy. When Tesla turns on full autonomy, we believe the market will tip away from traditional autos to Tesla.”

A trip down memory lane might be in order — perhaps Apple vs. Nokia could soon resemble Tesla vs. Toyota.

Above: Munster thinks Model 3 could be the iPhone of cars (YouTube: Bloomberg)

As before, Munster draws a corollary between Apple and Tesla. Apple, once seen as a niche pricey brand, now enjoys massive mainstream success. The iPhone was what pushed Apple out to a universal audience.

And Munster forecasts, “we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift to mobile computing… Looking back at the iPhone in 2007 it was a stretch to envision the company producing 50m phones a year, but in 2015, the company sold 232m units.”

===

*Source: Loup Ventures

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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135 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Could Be The Next Toyota Camry"

  1. I think there is a good chance the Tesla Model 3 becomes the most popular car sold in the US. Keep in mind several additional points: the Model 3 is much quicker, and this will sell a lot of them.

    If people also get solar PV panels, the cost of driving the Model 3 goes down significantly (and so does their electric bill, even compared to before getting the Model 3), so the cost of ownership is possibly much lower than shown here.

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      He uses about 10 cents/kWh, residential solar doesn’t improve on that unless you get a very lucrative net metering agreement.

      1. Well, in Ontario, Canada, our province still has an early net metering program, but about 5-8 years back, we started the Feed-In Tarrif Program – FIT, and Micro-FIT for small installs up to 10 kW, or a large Home Solar Roof.

        Last numbers I heard on that, was 29.5 cents per kWh, for a 20 year cintract to buy the power produced, and last cost I saw was about $29,995 for a 10 kW Solar Roof Install. Average payback with these numbers should be about 8-12 years, depending on your costs for the finaning the installation. No other Federal or Provincial Installation Tax Credits Exist here, that I am aware of.

        So, better than some places, Ontario is a pretty good place to do a MicroFIT Solar Roof!

        1. Rainer says:

          This province is crazy!! I get 38.9 cents a kilowatt hr signed in 2016 and got $14,000 rebate for 2017 Volt I bought this year. Great car by the way.

    2. FISHEV says:

      Doubtful as it is an EV and EV’s are just not that popular with 95% of car buyers. Gas prices are low. EV prices are high. Lots of high mpg, low emissions ICE vehicles available.

      1. Terawatt says:

        According to what standard? I would claim the opposite, that not a single ICE vehicle on the market, and hardly any PHEV by the way, offers TOLERABLE emissions, never mind “low”.

        Didn’t you get the memo..? Must cut emissions by 90%? Why do so many people keep acting as if it’s not urgent, as if 5% or 10% would be a great achievement?

        It’s frustrating, that’s for sure.

        1. Asak says:

          Because most people don’t care about emissions. They just don’t care. I wish it weren’t true, but it is.

          1. arne-nl says:

            What a depressing thought.

            Especially since I will have to conclude that it is spot on.

          2. Robert Middleswarth says:

            EV will never get above 5% if all they have to offer is low emissions. People want something more.

      2. Windbourne says:

        And ICE sales, esp model S competitors, are down, while Tesla remains unable to satisfy demand.

  2. Pet says:

    It’s possible for model 3 to take the lead from Camry.

    I’ve never seen anyone lining up to get a Camry.

    Neither have I seen hundreds of Camry sold in a few days.

    The amount of pre orders for the M3 is almost equal to Camry sold last year.

    I know that not all pre orders are from US. But still that is real threatening.

    1. menorman says:

      Neither have I seen hundreds of Camry sold in a few days.

      Toyota sells around 1000 Camrys/day nationwide…

      1. Terawatt says:

        He’s clearly the “intuitive” type, not a boring number’s guy!

        Who needs facts when they have gut feel and wishful thinking?

      2. Windbourne says:

        Uh, if u want real numbers, then let’s skip the fake stories and use real numbers.
        Toyota sells a little over 100 Camrys /day in America.
        http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-camry/

        I would guess that you got your 1000/day sales over faux news?

    2. Paul Smith says:

      You haven’t seen Model 3 buyers lining up to buy either. Sales are online.

      1. MIcah says:

        Uuuuhhh tens of thousands of people lined up on May 31st 2016 to reserve the car…

        1. Terawatt says:

          Really? That went unreported in the “press”, including the EV blogs.

          I personally reserved mine on March 31, fully two months earlier. But I guess the queues were longer in the divided states. Everything’s bigger in America!

          1. Robert Middleswarth says:

            Heavily reported on this site and other EV sites. Some people showed up the day before getting in line. It was pretty crazy at some locations.

      2. arne-nl says:

        No lines? You gotaa be kiddin’

  3. rick says:

    Two reasons why it won’t, at least not for a while.
    1) $42K price
    2) Silly floating screen

    1. Dan says:

      3) It’s a car.

      If you’ve taken a look at sales numbers recently, cars are out and crossovers are in. Even Toyota’s sales numbers YTD show that its workhorse model in 2017 is the RAV4 and no longer the Camry.

      1. La Frennia di Mamata says:

        RAV4 = P.O.S. [Better than walking]

    2. Mark C says:

      rick, I find it interesting way you put these two comments.

      1) $42k price: Not the base price and not likely the fully loaded price. I watched a Chevy Equinox commercial where they said prominently that it starts $24.5k and in the fine print, the one shown is $36.9k. To play the way the traditional companies play, the price starts @ $35k.

      2) Silly floating screen: And it won’t even have a gas gauge, oil pressure or check engine light. Bummer for you.

      1. Hold The Presses!

        NO GAS GUAGE?
        WHAT IF I RUN OUT OF GAS?
        HOW WILL I KNOW BEFORE I RUN OUT?
        WHAT IF I RUN OUT IF GAS NOWHERE NEAR A GAS STATION?

        OOOPS! SORRY! It’s Electric! No gas needed! Sorry BP! Sorry Exxon! Sorry Shell! Sorry Sheetz! Etc. Sorry Oil Sands! Sorry Venezuela! Sorry Iraq! Sorry Daudi Arabia! Sorry Norway! I won’t be supporting you soon!
        ;÷)

    3. scott franco says:

      I like the dash. Its like retro 50’s combined with new age.

      I have a Bolt with lots of displays. I have to duck below the wheel to see the speedometer, which is the only thing I find useful in the dash display. If they offered a speedometer in the center display, I would use it.

      The only issues with the Bolt display are:

      1. Not high enough.

      2. Angled backwards so that it washes out in sunlight a lot.

      3. Locks up (as in the software crashes).

      All features that the M3 has improved on (giving it the benefit of the doubt on the last one).

      1. pjwood1 says:

        “have to duck below the wheel to see the speedometer”

        Welcome to “The Era of Lame”.
        -With Tesla, you’re stuck looking at a cartoon of sensors, whether or not you’re in AP
        -Did you see Audi’s new A8 touch screens? A feast of distraction:

        https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/11/15952078/audi-a8-2017-hands-on

        1. Paul Smith says:

          For the most part, when driving I’m looking at what is OUTSIDE the car.

      2. Jason says:

        Nissan Leaf has the Speedo just above the wheel, very convenient and sorry to see it looks like they are moving out back behind the wheel.

    4. Mister G says:

      Hey Rick sing along…I WANT MY TM3 I WANT MY TM3

  4. Mark.ca says:

    Tesla $42k fully loaded?! I wish! Not going to happen!

    1. $42,000.00!

      That was what Elon said he expected the Average Sales Price to be, based on his knowledge of anticipated options cost, average uptake on options with S & X, and he likely knew these numbers for some time now, even if we don’t!

      So, yes, fully loaded could well be higher, and $50,000 has been suggested via YouTube Teslanomics Videos. Still speculating, at that! We have minimal idea how many options will exist for the Model 3!

      However, we already know that Dual Motors will not be a choice on day 1, only Wheels and Paint. So that tightens it down quite a bit, in terms of initial price variance.

      Sure, initial deliveries could be standard with Glass Roof, Large Battery, and maybe even Advanced Autopilot Features, but Full Autopilot may not be even offered out of the gate yet. Same for Advanced Sound, Extra Tech Packages, even Performance Models, since they will likely be tied to the Dual Motor – which will be about 6 Months away!

      So, for the first 5-7 Months, $42,000 could well be an accurate average delivery price, as most will only vary by about $1,000-$2,000 tops!

      True, they may offer only the large battery, for more profit for them, more range for buyers, more bragging rights over the Bolt EV, or, they might save the bigger battery for later, if 1st cars can be rated at 250 miles range, with a base Battery, just to get more of them out, while they develop the Robotic Pack Assembly Ramp up.

      We are all guessing, and will be, until at least July 28th, 2017, from what I see!

  5. Joe says:

    It’s a pity the back trunk is so small. Even adding back and front trunk capacities, it’s smaller than any compact car.

    1. Unplugged says:

      Did you find the actual specification on capacities somewhere? Boy, that’s quite a coup! I hope you list them soon, because thousands of people are waiting for that info.

      1. La Frennia di Mamata says:

        Isn’t it strange that Some people’s Head is Much Bigger Than Other’s ., But they end up with Less Brains.. L o L..

      2. Rich says:

        Unplugged,
        While it doesn’t have a lot of specs, the cargo capacity of the Model 3 was released in a sales chart to Tesla stores. It was reported by IEVs here:
        http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-3-comparison-sheet-now-pricing-information/

    2. Mark.ca says:

      As far as i know the back seats fold down so you can extent the trunk space to some extent…we should just wait for the official specs.

      1. Kdawg says:

        AFAIK, this is not known. I’ve been waiting to find out about this for some time.

        1. WadeTyhon says:

          I have asked this in the past and was linked to a tweet where musk confirmed they fold. Also, there was a story about a month ago about a model 3 with a folded rear seat. This was good to see.

          http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-split-folding-rear-seats-spotted-near-fremont-warehouse/

          1. Kdawg says:

            Nice. I wonder if they fold flat.

      2. realistic says:

        How can there not be “official specs” for cars that are being built in the hundreds for delivery to customers in weeks?

        1. Stephen Pace says:

          @realistic There are official specs, Tesla just hasn’t released them yet. 28 July 2017, all will become known.

        2. Nix says:

          Realistic — What? Are you saying that Tesla does stuff without running it by you first?!!?

          I can’t believe you aren’t in the loop on everything Tesla does!!

          What an outrage!!

          *laugh*

          They announced the final reveal would be at the end of the month. What part of the final reveal finally revealing what is left to be revealed don’t you understand?

  6. SJC says:

    You can get a new Camry for $20,000, it is known to be dependable with a huge dealer network.

  7. scott franco says:

    Sorry, I don’t see it. The Model 3, as well as S, X and even the roadster were boy toys. I think I lot of women are going to pass on it just for the looks of it.

    1. Mikael says:

      The Model X is a bloated, “cute”, soccermom van.
      Not for the boys.

  8. Dan Z says:

    This doesn’t even seem to account for the $7,500 tax credit. If you include that, the numbers are even better.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Tesla’s slice of the full $7500 tax credit will expire at the end of the year, isn’t that what is being estimated? Or will it expire at the end of 1st quarter next year?

      Either way, altho some early reservation holders will get the full credit, most will have to settle for half or even a quarter.

      1. Rich Teer says:

        Sigh, I wish people would educate themselves about the US tax credit situation. First, there’s no cut off date: the clock starts ticking when the 200,000th car from a given manufacturer is sold in the US. From that moment, the full credit still applies for the next 6 months. It’s halved for the next 3 months after that, and halved again for the next three months after that. Beyond that, the tax credit is gone.

        So, if Tesla sells their 200,000th US car in January, all US Tesla purchases will still get the full credit until this time next year, and at least some until the end of 2018.

  9. DJ says:

    So someone who has no idea actually what it will cost, what it will cost to insure, the range, etc. makes a wildly unsubstantiated claim? Never mind that they conveniently left out repair costs on the Model 3.

    Hey, it’s a pro Tesla article so let’s run with it!

    Realistically though they sell 400k Camry’s a year. I just don’t see that many Model 3’s being sold. There is definitely a market for EVs, I just don’t think they’re there yet. You are going to convince the general public to go out and buy a less capable car for more $, even if you can show them that it costs less in the long run because a huge % of the population just aren’t wired that way.

    And ya. Camry’s for me on Truecar are going for $18,650 so a Camry actually costs less in the long run.

    1. pjwood1 says:

      Right now, a huge percent of the population believes a Model 3 is less capable than a Corolla, just like you.

      1. DJ says:

        That’s because it is. I was talking about a Camry but you’re right, it’s less capable than a Corolla despite costing much more.

        A huge % of the population wants to get from A to B as reliably and as cheaply as they can. They don’t care if they’re burning gas or not. They don’t care if their car is a status symbol or not. All they see is a car that costs less and can drive further and in less time than any EV out there right now. If there is a problem with it they can take it to a myriad of shops to get fixed too.

        The fact that all EVs fall short on those key requirements makes them all less capable. Just because you don’t like it doesn’t make it not true.

        There is also a subset of the population that right now are willing to put up with that for the benefits they provide but it’s by far not a bulk of the population.

        1. Paul Smith says:

          What it comes down to DJ, is that you’ve been predicting doom for Tesla for a long time, and for an equally long time you have been wrong.

          1. DJ says:

            I actually don’t predict that whatsoever. I am very confident there will be a market for them. I am also not sure how you glean that from my statement when I mention all EVs.

            Why is it that you Tesla fanboys can’t comprehend anything other than someone foaming at the mouth clamouring on about how great they are and how they can’t do any wrong. It’s like you are 13 and you just saw your first boob, not even a pair, just your first one…

            Sheesh…

            1. floydboy says:

              Why is it you’re so damned condescending of others, when you haven’t gotten a single thing correct yourself. But you sit around and berate and name-call like some self righteous know-it-all! Can’t you disagree with others without behaving like…. I don’t know… a 13 year old?!

              1. DJ says:

                Me? Sure. You, obviously not. You feel the need to step in to a discussion you are not part of and inaccurately call someone out. You must be so proud you took the high road here.

                Is it a wonder why people think you guys are part of some cult? That was rhetorical BTW…

                The real problem here is that Paul Smith thinks something that isn’t accurate and I corrected him on it. I have never said I thought they will fail. I have actually said that I think they will fill a niche at least and I wish them the best of luck but that isn’t good enough for you guys. You didn’t like that because it doesn’t fit your narrative of how I am some big bad person out to get Tesla but rather I am a person who can think through things on my own and not just believe whatever comes out of TSLA as gospel so you make up some more BS. Holy crap, it really does sound like you guys are part of some cult. Destroy the non believers!!!

            2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              DJ said:

              “I am also not sure how you glean that from my statement when I mention all EVs.”

              Hmmm, could it be because you only post EV-hater comments to articles about Tesla cars — like this one — and not to articles about other EVs?

              Now, stop peeing on our legs and trying to convince us it’s raining.

              You’re a persistent, Tesla-hating troll, who never makes any comment about Tesla cars that is either truthful or what you actually believe, and who only posts comments to Tesla articles in an effort to disrupt useful discussion and provoke outraged reactions. In other words, the very definition of an internet troll.

              At least have the honesty to man up and admit that much.

      2. Al says:

        Right now a huge percent of the population has no idea of what a Model 3 is. Don’t confuse the enthusiasm of the Tesla Cult members with the perception of the rest of the world.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Don’t confuse the trollish B.S. posted by a serial anti-Tesla FUDster with an honest comment by someone saying what he really thinks.

        2. Robert Middleswarth says:

          My mother who knows nothing about cars, EV’s, or the environment as a whole know about the Telsa and the model 3 when it was being premiered last year. She knows nothing about the Bolt, Leaf, or the i3 but she does know about Telsa Model 3.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “Hey, it’s a pro Tesla article so let’s run with it!”

      They did, thanks.

      Now, why don’t you take your persistent serial anti-Tesla trolling to some coal-rolling site where it might actually be appreciated? And don’t let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.

  10. Pantarei says:

    The longer I look at this comparison and the assessments behind it, the less sense choosing the model 3 makes. The new hybrid camry may actually in practice be cheaper on a ct/mile basis in certain states like California. It certainly is bond to have less issues. I’m all for the move to a more sustainable transportation but let’s be real here.

    1. Mark.ca says:

      “The new hybrid camry may actually in practice be cheaper on a ct/mile basis in certain states like California.”
      Why? The conventional hybrids get no credits or rebates so why would it be cheaper in Cali?

      1. DJ says:

        Perhaps because our electricity prices are so darn high and you can get a Camry for $6k less than what they claim. Plus no BEV “fee”.

        It all comes down to personal situation. For some, excluding all other costs, it’s more expensive to run an EV than it is to run an ICE.

        SDGE&E Tier 2 rate is like 50 cents a kWh. Say you get 4 miles out of that. That’s equal to 12.5 cents per mile. A Camry and it’s 29 combined MPG works out to $3.60 a gallon of gas. You can get gas for $2.60 at Costco, $2.70 at Arco, etc. so it’s definitely can be somewhat cheaper.

        Now, if a home owner has excess solar capacity then an EV is a lot cheaper per mile than an ICE.

        1. pjwood1 says:

          Assuming the extremely rare $.50/KWh rate for electricity is about as bad as assuming all watts come from coal. It just isn’t representative of a country whose average is 12 cents, with ~32% coming from coal (after the country’s middle averages out to its coasts).

          $2.50 gas in a Prius, that gets 40mpg, is still about twice as expensive per mile as a 12 cent KWh giving 3 miles, in most EVs.

          If this were only about economics, EVs would be selling where you can buy a KWh of electricity for a nickel overnight. They don’t. Coastal electric rates average over $.15/KWh, yet that is where they sell.

          1. ffbj says:

            I think that most buyers aren’t really all that concerned about cost to operate, which is very cheap as is TCTO, mostly it’s a lifestyle choice. Quiet smooth acceleration, OTA updates, no gas.
            It’s a sensible choice.

          2. DJ says:

            Tier 2 residential rates for SDGE are 50 cents and most home owners are easily in to Tier 2 even without an EV so I don’t know exactly how “rare” it is.

            You guys keep looking at the lowest possible cost and in the real world many people pay those ridiculous rates out here.

            I would agree that to many people the running costs aren’t really considered. What they see is a more expensive car that overall delivers less to the consumer and that puts a lot of them off. There are definitely people that it doesn’t, like many of us who frequent this site, but a lot of people don’t or can’t see past that.

            1. Robert Middleswarth says:

              My understanding is that SDGE gives special rates for EV to overnight charge that would bring that rate much lower.

        2. Mark.ca says:

          DJ,
          Sometimes i think you are high on meds when you post on here. You keep beating the dead horse of peak rates like an ev owner will actually charge on 50c peak electricity….it’s like you and your fricking Camry driving to Honolulu to fill up…how you like that?

          It’s easy man, if are on a tier pay then you switch to TOU if your consumption gets out of hand. On a TOU you can choose what you pay to charge. I’m not even going to talk about how great solar is if you pay 50c… and if you want to keep exaggerating then i will start too by saying that these ev owners can look for free chargers and charge there. How you like me now?

          1. DJ says:

            Sounds like a great idea until you realize switching to TOU screws people who are home during the day and run the AC or other things. For those people TOU usually costs more so factoring in the overall increase it still costs more to charge an EV. You can’t just say sorry your AC costs more to run but your EV is cheaper so hey it’s cheaper to run an EV. I would think that for a lot of people the electricity consumed to run their AC is way more than they would put in an EV. Not everyone mind you but the average AC will burn a heck of a lot more than say 10 kWh a day. There is a reason why the utilities want you to be on TOU. It is in their best interest, not yours.

            Now for some other people sure switching to TOU can make a lot of sense but not everyone goes and works in an office between 8 and 5 so for those people, which there are a lot of TOU is likely a bad idea.

            1. Mark.ca says:

              I hear you on the TOU issue, i myself choose not to be on it mainly because its base pricing was 1c higher than my Tier 1 pricing…go figure. However, you are getting screwed by SDGE unless you have solar…they still have a net metering option available. This is just for now anyway, from 2019 there will only be TOU…unless they changed this…
              From their website…
              “Timing
              September 2015: Consolidation from 4 tiers to 3 tiers

              Spring 2016: Consolidation from 3 tiers to 2 tiers

              2017: 2 tiers + “Super User” electric surcharge

              2019: Time-of-Use Rates”

            2. Bill Howland says:

              Yes, just because you calmly compare costs all the magpies here say that you are an EV-Hater.

              If gasoline was back at $5 / US Gallon, then its true that EV’s would be much more saleable in many more places. With it around $2.50 / gallon in many locales EV’s are definitely a hard-sell.

              I’m still surprised at what electricity costs in some parts of the states, and I’m quite surprised more people don’t complain they are getting ripped off.

              Of course, they are probably being screwed more by high property taxes than anything else.

          2. Mark.ca says:

            Lock like on the tired rate plan Tier 1 is at 20c and Tier 2 at 42c. Definitely high but still worth it for an ev considering SD gas prices.

        3. Windbourne says:

          Again, another fake news story. So many trolls here lying.
          https://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/ev-rates
          Let’s try .19 or .21/kwh.

      2. Pantarei says:

        Many Prius Prime drivers have only an environmental incentive to plug it in because driving on only gas is just as cheap, if not cheaper. The new Camry hybrid will get the same 52 mpg as the Prime. Of course this varies depending on your local rates.

        1. Mark.ca says:

          It’s right there on their website…

          “44/47 est. mpg”

          This will only get worse with years. My Lexus ES 300h started at 40mpg and after 4 years it barely gets over 33mpg.

          1. Pantarei says:

            That’s the SE and XLE, the LE will get 52 mpg combined.

  11. Kosh says:

    Maybe this will pressure Toyota to be reasonable on costs… just spent $380 (part only) for a toyota alternator… and that was dealer cost!

  12. Doggydogworld says:

    Camry lease is so cheap because it is discounted from MSRP and they have high residual values. Tesla claims they don’t discount and there is no evidence Model 3 will enjoy a similar high residual. I’d be very surprised to see a $305 Model 3 lease rate.

    1. ChuckVenice says:

      Agreed – Bet it is in the $450 plus range including tax with a $3500 drive off.

  13. Ethan says:

    “perhaps Apple vs. Nokia” Did you mean to say Apple vs Samsung?

    1. julio says:

      Funny thing is, no one compares Model 3 with iPad, that would vanish PC according to 10 in 10 “specialists”

  14. William L. says:

    No it won’t, not until Tesla can make a car as reliable as a Toyota, not just one year, but years after years of making reliable cars.

  15. WadeTyhon says:

    Ehhhh… funny, I have said many times that I think the Model 3 will be the Toyota Camry of EVs. The EV that is so common, no one bats an eyelash at seeing it. (Like a Volt of Leaf is now.)

    But I don’t think there is much chance of it getting anywhere near Camry sales anytime soon. If Tesla can manage 350-400k sales in the US alone… I will be very surprised. Excited, but surprised.

  16. MAF says:

    So… zero maintenance and repairs on Model 3 for 5 years? Really? And how did he get $500/year maintenence for Camry? Insurance should be a lot more on the 3, because it is a more expensive car to begin with.

    1. pjwood1 says:

      Good criticisms. The 3 is also a “Tesla”, and more headway needs to be made bringing repair costs down, and/or body-work inside or out to more shops (for competition). At least, it’s steel.

      Higher Toyota maintenance doesn’t surprise me, but Toyota’s customers tend to have “Toyota=low cost” tattooed to their brains.

      I bet M3 resale, at 7 years, is better than even a Camry. Just like hybrid batteries, including the Volt’s, having so many cars out there will rapidly bring even Tesla’s ~60-75KWh down. Many totaled cars will have perfectly good ones, or good blocks of cells as independents grow support.

  17. MTN Ranger says:

    Corolla is a more suitable comparison since the Model 3 is almost the same size.

    1. realistic says:

      Indeed. Comparison between the ’17 Camry and the Tesla:

      Measuring F/R Head, Leg, Shoulder and Hip (inches)

      Camry: 38.3/38 ; 42.1/38 ; 57.7/55.7 ; 55.4/54.7

      Tesla: 38.8/35.3 ; 42.7/35.4 ; 57.7/55 ; 55.2/54.7

      Out of the eight key passenger accomodation dimensions, the Camry is virtually identical, leading in the rear seat and within fractions in the front.

      WAIT A MINUTE:

      That’s for the Tesla Model S.

      Yes: the Camry has as much passenger room as a Model S, and considerably more than a Model 3, which is twelve inches shorter and three inches narrower externally than the S.

      Bets that the Corolla is in fact LARGER in most interior dimenions than the Model 3? You could of course just check Tesla’s site for Model 3 interior dimensions… except they aren’t there.

      So how does a jeenyus guy like ol’ Gene M just not bother to make a useful comparison?

      Or does anyone at EVANNEX care?

      1. realistic says:

        More:

        Passenger volume (using EPA measurement method) for…
        Toyota Camry: 102.7 cu ft
        Toyota Corolla: 97 cu ft
        Tesla Model S: 94 cu ft

        So, yes, the Corolla actually has more useful passenger space than the Model S (not including the MS kidnapped toddler folding seats, of course)

        Based on a Model 3 that’s 12″ shorter, 3″ narrower and with greatly truncated rear headroom, whaddya think it will be? I suspect under 90 cu ft.

        But yeah, of course, to make ol’ Gene’s numbers look better, it’s important to not only invent maintenance costs, pretend that insurance will be the same, assume a lease deal that Tesla cannot manage to create, and ignoring cost of money, he needs to compare the Model 3 to a car with >10% more useful passenger space to make his case. That’s why they call him a Gene-yus.

  18. Ocean Railroader says:

    As someone who can be a skeptic of Tesla sometimes I do think Tesla will have a winning car.

    I think this car will be popular in counties with extreamly high gas prices like England and Iceland and Europe.

    1. Mikael says:

      0/3 are counties. 1/3 is a real country. 😛

  19. realistic says:

    Nonsense numbers from Lord Gene:
    (1) Somehow, for all but year 1, insurance for the $42k Tesla is less than that for a car that costs 37% less, is slower, has a very well-established repair record and is supported by a variety of repair and parts sources

    (2) What in the world requires almost $1000 of maintenance in the first two years of driving? Clearly this includes rotations and balance which miraculously the Tesla does not.

    (3) As usual the cost of money for the additional $1800 in lease payments is zero.

  20. Brave Lil' Toaster says:

    Wow, that’s more than a little overoptimistic. I think a better comparison would be the 1965 Ford Mustang.

    See, the Mustang is a car you buy – or rather, would want to buy – based on passion, and that particular car at that particular time was relevant because it was cheap enough that almost everyone could buy it. It wasn’t the most practical car in the world, even at that time, but the target market wasn’t “accountants and soccer moms” either.

    The Camry, as well as it sells, most certainly *is* aimed at accountants and soccer moms. Which is exactly why the “TCO that’s 13% more than the Camry” isn’t going to take away any of the Camry’s lunch.

    No, like the Mustang, the Model 3 may well be everyone’s “I want to have” car, because it’s new and cool. The Camry is the one they’ll settle for because it fits their budget, and going 13% over just isn’t going to happen.

    Now, whether Tesla will ever see the sales figures of that original 1965 Mustang is a big, fat question mark that we’re going to see play out in the next 12 months.

    1. ffbj says:

      There is similarity to gotta have the car, the “it” factor, like for the Mustang, which actually wasn’t all that great of a car.

  21. darth says:

    Total sales doesn’t equal success. The iPhone has sales much lower than Android phones but it is still a very successful and profitable product.

    Tesla is analagous to Apple. Premium products that people want but will not take over the market.

    1. realistic says:

      Tesla is analagous to Apple in that both company names have five letters in them. That’s about it.

      1. Hans Wurst says:

        And three of those five letters are the same, it’s a sign, a sign!!!

  22. Tom says:

    Shouldn’t they have released some kind of info…let’s say official govt EPA performance for instance if they have ‘sold’ their first car? Isn’t that a requirement? Window sticker should be public? Or are these first couple months of hand built copies to their engineers really still just test copies officially.

    1. realistic says:

      No, Elon said the car was “delivered”, which means it maintains the pace of gates to additional stock option grants. Plus these cars must be “delivered” in order to assert revenue recognition.

      So the fact that it may or not be suitable for sale is not the issue.

      “When I use the word ‘delivery’ ” Elon said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

      So there you go.

      1. pjwood1 says:

        I had a sympathetic response to your humor, but then I couldn’t find your quote:

        “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

        When did Musk say this? Are you reading fairy tales?

        1. floydboy says:

          Yep, sounds like it.

          1. Get Real says:

            Camry comparison is ridiculous. Model 3 is meant to primarily compete with BMW 3 series, Audie A4, Mercedes C class and other luxury makers comparable cars.

            However, despite some of the hatred posted here by the usual serial anti-Tesla trolls, the Model 3 will be the PEV that really starts the process of breaking EVs into the mainstream sales figures.

            1. realistic says:

              Couldn’t find hip room for all but as you can see it normally correlates with shoulder room fairly well.

              Again, since we don’t have Model 3 interior dimensions you’ll just have to compare the Model S dimensions instead
              F/R Headroom; Leg Room; Shoulder room (inches) and passenger volume (EPA method, in ft^3)

              Tesla S: 38.8/35.3 ; 42.7/35.4 ; 57.7/55 ; 94
              BMW 3 series: 40.3/37.7 ; 42/35.1 ; 55.1/55.1 ; 96
              MB C Class: 37.1/37.1 ; 41.7/35.2 ; 55/54.8; N/A
              Audi A4: 38.9/37.4; 41.3/35.7 ; 55.9 / 54.5 ; 92

              So, as you can see, all of these cars have interior room quite competitive with the Model S (a foot longer and three inches wider than the Model 3).

              Therefore if the Tesla 3 is supposed to compete with these cars, it’s much too small.

              1. James M says:

                Not true. The Model 3 is shortened at the nose and rear only. Sight comparisons to the Model S show a nearly same interior size. Instead the Model 3 looses half the storage capacity, despite it being only a little smaller than the Model S.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          pjwood1 said:

          “When did Musk say this? Are you reading fairy tales?”

          Hmmm… based on your final remark, I’m guessing you didn’t need the help of all the king’s horses and all the king’s men to find the origin of that quote — or rather, paraphrase. 😉

  23. George Parrott says:

    As others have noted, this price comparison does not include:

    1. Federal $7500 incentive which WILL be available to at least the end of 2018.
    2. Various state incentives-California offers $2500 other states even more
    3. Regional incentives-one air quality district just south of Sacramento has its own $3000 further incentive
    4. Utility incentives-PG&E offers $500 cash across its region, and the local Sacramento MUD offers $599.
    5. Employer incentives-Some employers, especially in SoCal offer significant further incentives…up to $2-4000.

    1. ModernMarvelFan says:

      So, you are saying that they are ONLY competitive with all the incentives?

  24. George Parrott says:

    This price comparison does not include:

    1. Federal $7500 incentive which WILL be available to at least the end of 2018.
    2. Various state incentives-California offers $2500 other states even more
    3. Regional incentives-one air quality district just south of Sacramento has its own $3000 further incentive
    4. Utility incentives-PG&E offers $500 cash across its region, and the local Sacramento MUD offers $599.
    5. Employer incentives-Some employers, especially in SoCal offer significant further incentives…up to $2-4000.

  25. ModernMarvelFan says:

    This article is FULL of BS. Model 3 is pretty awesome and I hate Toyota, Camry and Prius. But let us not make up craps just to make a point.

    There is NO WAY that on average a Toyota Camry would need about $1000 of repairs and maintenance per year. That is just full of crap. If it did, nobody would have bought Camry and there is no way it would have sold 400K per year in the US. No freaking way!

    1. ffbj says:

      I have an ’89 Toyota Camry, as far reliability & maintenance best car I have ever had.
      4k over 27 years.

      1. ModernMarvelFan says:

        No way you spent most of that 4K in the first 5 years.

        So, this comparison is just full of BS.

        4K over 27 years is $150 per year. And I bet most of that happened in the last 17 years rather than the first 10.

        As much as I hate Camry and Toyota, you can’t argue against the lower cost of ownership there.

        I seriously even doubt FCA products would need about $1K per year in the first 5 years.

  26. ffbj says:

    People just love to compare, but in this case I really don’t valid historical comparison.
    The Model 3 is the only vehicle of it’s kind, as was the Model S & the X.

  27. Mike says:

    I have a 5 yr old Camry with 90k miles. In that time 1 set of brakes and 1 set of tires and 11 oil/filter changes: total $1700 or $425 per year.

  28. Michael French says:

    I have a 5 yr old Camry with 90k miles. In that time 1 set of brakes and 1 set of tires and 11 oil/filter changes: total $1700 or $425 per year.

  29. floydboy says:

    The only predictable maintenance costs for either car for the first four years while they’re still under warranty should be oil changes, gas and possibly brakes for the Camry, electricity for the Model 3 and tires for both cars.

    1. DJ says:

      So you are saying that the analysis is flawed and skewed towards the Model 3 in that regard?? Because ya, that is the sensible conclusion. Not to mention insurance on a family hauler will be cheaper than a more expensive and quicker car that usually costs more to repair. Repair costs should also be included for the Model 3. Well unless you aren’t going to drive it past the warranty period.

      1. floydboy says:

        I’m saying that the assumption of higher repair costs or relative insurance values for the Model 3 is currently an unknown WAG. In the long term, insurance costs maybe affected by such things as whether or not the car is easier to maintain or run. It could also be greatly affected by what level of autonomy and safety the car is able to achieve co-dependently or even independently of a human operator.

        Which is why I personally would shy away from those costs, until some Model 3s are running around the roads. From a simple non-repair cost to run, based on the initial variables I gave, the Model 3 SHOULD be cheaper.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        DJ said:

        “So you are saying that the analysis is flawed and skewed towards the Model 3 in that regard?? Because ya, that is the sensible conclusion.”

        Now see, if you had wanted to actually make a useful contribution to the discussion, instead of just taking trollish and repetitive cheap shots at Tesla coupled with directly and childishly insulting every Tesla fan, then you could have made the points that ModernMarvelFan and floydboy did, debunking this Tesla cheerleading article while remaining honest and not descending to childish pejoratives.

        But of course that wasn’t actually your intent, was it? You’re not interested in either honesty or meaningful discussion; you’re just here to post lies, bash Tesla, and insult Tesla fans.

        And apparently you are so clueless that you think readers here can’t see the difference.

  30. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Another stupid point to compare.

    ~400K reservation of the Model 3 is for the entire world and with maybe years of pent up demand.

    Camry sells at 400K per year rate in the US alone!!! Year after year!!

    Stupid comparison!

  31. Nix says:

    Actually, all the other car companies have already weighed in on this, and the consensus is clear.

    The Tesla Model 3 will be the first Model 3.

    Not the next Camry, not the next BMW; the Model 3 is its own benchmark in its own category. It doesn’t have to beat any other car in some other category.

    All the other car companies are racing like crazy to say they have a Model 3 competitor, just like they’ve been saying they will build a Model S competitor. A week doesn’t go by when some car maker brings up Tesla when they talk about their own EV’s. They aren’t saying their EV’s will take on the Camry.

    None of the car companies are saying that their future car will be quicker to replace the Camry than the Model 3. They aren’t saying they have a Camry-killer. They are saying they all have Tesla-killers.

    The war isn’t over who will be the next Camry, it is over who will be the next Tesla.

    If you are a fan of some other car and you disagree, don’t harsh on me. Go talk to the media folks for whatever car brand you favor, and tell THEM to stop talking about Tesla as the one to beat. THEY are the ones who keep talking about beating Tesla.

  32. Don Zenga says:

    That’s overambitious. Knowing the Model-3 threat, Toyota made significant changes to the redeisgned Camry and increased the mileage by 5 MPG while the Hybrid version gets a 12 MPG boost. But for the Taxis, certainly the Model-3 can gain some market from Camry-H because they drive 100K – 200K miles / year. Even the fleet and others who drive a lot can gain the ROI in few years. But for a common man who drives only around 12,000 miles / year, the ROI can never be gained. Anyway, lets see. After all an EV belongs to a luxury class.

  33. JoeInAlbany says:

    Toyota Care, free maintenance on all new Toyotas for the first two years.

    Author doesn’t know what he’s talking about discussing maintenance costs.

    1. realistic says:

      Nooooo! The author uncritically quotes Gene Munster, who (for the convenient case of EVANNEX and their sycophantic Tesla worship) is never, ever wrong. And how can you possibly expect two different EV advocate sites to spend five minutes fact-checking info favorable to the Tesla case? You oil-slurping, Russian hater of puppies!

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Tell us again, Realistic, about how you’re not a Tesla basher. It’s kinda hard to remember after tirades like that.

        Is the article’s analysis biased? Yeah, it is. But not even remotely as biased as your rant.

  34. Logan says:

    Did you remember to add the $100 road tax in the the annual Taxes & Fees?

  35. Terawatt says:

    > Munster has a five star rating and ranks a stellar 21 out of 4,592 analysts on Tip Ranks (99.5th percentile).

    OMG, they spoke to the chief astrologer!

    Just because somebody ranks high as a so-called stock analyst does not mean that stock analysis isn’t alchemy or in any case that they have any idea what they are doing. If you have a million people guess (“predict”) coin tosses, you should expect the “highest ranking” coin flipper analyst to be correct CA twenty times in a row! Clearly that’s not luck, not if you’re in the top 100.0 percentile…

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      He ranks in the 99.5 percentile among self-appointed financial analysts?

      Great Flying Spaghetti Monster, the abject incompetence in this field is even worse than I thought… which is a thing I did not even think was possible!! 😯

  36. Nix says:

    It is hard to find rental fleet sales broken out by car model, and not just by car maker. But some data from a few years ago indicates that Camry had 20% rental fleet sales:

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20130701/RETAIL01/307019977/toyota%3A-whatever-it-takes-to-keep-camry-crown

    I guarantee that Avis and Hertz didn’t get 80K Model 3 reservations.

    Yes I know I’m mixing US and global numbers, but that doesn’t change my point. Actual retail sales to actual individuals may be much closer to 2018 or 2019 Tesla retail sales than it may appear when looking at retail + rental fleet sales for the Camry.

  37. Someone out there says:

    Well the pump & dump scheme seems to have worked. TSLA has gone from a peak of $383/share back to $319/share. Still overvalued though.

    1. Mister G says:

      If it drops to $150 I’m buying

  38. Al says:

    There’s no way that anyone driving a Camry would consider a Model 3. It would be like getting my 96 year old mother to use a computer, not going to happen.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      I see this serial Tesla basher is keeping up his record of being 100% wrong. (Perhaps not about his sainted mother, altho one suspects she is as imaginary as the Tesla car he pretends to own.)

  39. BillT says:

    As much as I want the M3 to succeed and hope it will I think its chances of outselling mass market vehicles like the Camry, RAV4, CRV and Accord are very slim:
    1) Part of what makes those vehicles so popular is they have a reputation for going 10+ years and 200K+ miles without major repairs. That reputation also helps with resale value which keeps leases cheap. The article assumes the M3 will have less repair costs right out of the gate than a Camry. Color me skeptical on that given there are a lot of things outside of the power train on a car that can break and need repair and the
    model S has been anything but Camry reliable and cheap to repair.
    2) Price. While one certainly can option up a mass market car to $35K most sell for a lot less than that. And most consumers only look at upfront costs.
    3) In the US at least, the 40% or so of consumers who rent or otherwise don’t have the ability to charge at home are off limits.

    I think the M3 sales could certainly lead the BMW 3 series class vehicle market and that would be a great achievement. It also might lead to more apartments adding L2 charging which would pave the way for broader EV adoption.

  40. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    On the one hand, it’s nice to see someone comparing a plug-in EV to a gasmobile, because that’s the real competition for Tesla’s cars. Not the Bolt EV, not the new Leaf; gasmobiles.

    On the other hand, none of the logical arguments made in this article in favor of buying a Model 3, over a Toyota Camry have much impact on actual car buyers. If the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) had more of an impact than the sticker price, then EVs would already be outselling gasmobiles.

    The one thing that I think the article got right was a comparison to the iPhone. If the Tesla Model 3 is seen as the new “must have” car by the general public, then watch out! If that happens, the M3 will easily outsell the Camry. But that’s a big — a HUUUUGE — “if”.

    We’re really going to have to wait to see what auto reviewers say about the car, as well as any reports of just how the net M3 reservations are going: Up or down? (Not just the cancellation rate, despite all too many people obsessing over that. It’s the net sum which is important.)

    1. BillT says:

      The iPhone analogy (along with flat screen Vs tube TVs) comes up a lot in discussions about Tesla and EVs and I think it is pretty flawed. For most buyers of *mainstream* vehicles:
      a) a car is either their 2nd largest or largest purchase. An $800 dollar phone is another matter altogether.
      b) the number 1 priority is reliable get me to the job that pays for iPhones and flat screen TVs (Oh, and the roof over my head) transportation.
      Just look at the top 10 vehicles by volume. I don’t see the Mazda 3 and 6 in there even though they arguably drive and look much better than the equivalent cars that are in the top 10.
      c) the average age of a car on the road in the US at least is 11+ years. So, people expect cars to last a long time and reward with good sales and resale the ones that prove they can.

      As for the 400K+ M3 reservation holders, that is about 1 year of Camry sales and I am not surprised there are +400K people out there interested in buying a M3. But, I doubt many of them are typical mainstream appliance vehicle buyers. I think it is more likely they are entry level luxury car buyers. People who spend time reading EV forums are not mainstream buyers in my opinion. If once those 400K+ early adopters are sated the M3 sells at Camry volumes I will be thrilled to be wrong.

      I think we are quite a way from demonstrable evidence that over a 10-15 year time frame a Tesla M3 will cost less to own and have equivalent reliability to the Camrys and Accords of the world. To me 8 years / 150 miles is when the men and boys start to get separated reliability wise. All that being said, I really look forward to the M3 grabbing the crown in the entry level lux space.

  41. Mike Brennan says:

    Love to see the comparison over 10 years.
    Teslas model S have done 300k miles and battery is still at 90% Scandinavian researches suggest 500k on a battery.

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