Tesla Model 3 Mid Range Deliveries Underway

NOV 1 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 47

Short delivery times may fuel impressive Mid Range Tesla Model 3 sales.

When earlier this year, Tesla sold its 200,000th vehicle in the United States, it triggered a phase-out period for the $7,500 tax credit. This means that all electric vehicles that are to be delivered from January 1, 2019 on, will only be eligible for a $3,750 tax credit, 50% less than those customers who would take delivery of their new Tesla electric vehicle before the end of this year.

With the current production shortcomings seemingly sorted out, Tesla decided to offer a more budget-friendly mid-range Model 3 – mostly designed to hit reservation holders who, if they decide to switch towards the Model 3 mid-range, would get the vehicle before the full tax credit runs out.

When the U.S.-based carmaker first announced the Mid Range Model 3, it stated that deliveries would begin in some 6-10 weeks. However, if the recent reports from the Tesla community are any indication, Tesla is seemingly under-promising and over-delivering as far as the Mid Range Model 3 is concerned: the deliveries of this vehicle have already started, less than two weeks since the vehicle was initially launched.

This was revealed in a recent post over at the Tesla Motors Club, where member ivan801 revealed that he had already taken delivery of his Mid Range Model 3. The vehicle’s VIN was also in the 150k-range, which suggests that Tesla had registered the vehicle back in October. This goes in line with a huge batch VIN registration effort by the carmaker, where Tesla registered more than 61,000 new Model 3 VINs.

Currently, according to Tesla’s communication, “current delivery timelines are 4 weeks for the west coast, 6 weeks for central and 8 weeks for the east coast.” But those estimates may be pessimistic.  The Model 3 Mid Range could well become the top Model 3 seller this quarter.

Source: Teslarati, Tesla Motors Club

Categories: Tesla

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47 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Mid Range Deliveries Underway"

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Assaf

Great news!

Benz

Tesla will soon allow customers in Europe to order the Tesla Model 3.

How many customers in Europe will order the Long Range, the Mid Range, and the Standard Range version?

Tesla will probably receive more than 100,000 orders for the Tesla Model 3 from customers in Europe in December 2018. And Tesla will receive many more orders for the Tesla Model 3 from customers in Europe in 2019.

Tesla will soon need to make more investments in order to increase the production capacity of the Tesla Model 3 at their vehicle factory in Fremont California to 10,000 per week.

fasterthanonecanimagine

Europe will presumably first receive the version with the highest margin. Tesla could even publicly and temporarily increase the prices for Europe by $10k for the first 10.000 or 20.000 cars, at the same time announcing a three month delivery gap thereafter – and the buyers would still queue up. 200 Million extra profit ….

drpawansharma

Not his style. A few thousands may be to account for currency fluctuations and transport.

eject

That is exactly the Tesla style. They did it with the Performance version which did cost 5k more on introduction than now.

Starlord7

There is no precedent for what you are stating. The pricing structure will follow existing European Model S and Model X orders.

I will agree that Performance and AWD orders will be prioritized and the first ones delivered to customers

fasterthanonecanimagine

Well, it’s done with the Semi limited founder edition. 33% higher price than for the not-a-founder edition – probably with some extras, but IMO foremost a premium to be among the first.

ffbj

One nice thing is they can use Grohmann Engineering to build lines in Europe, rather than flying them into the U.S. air freight in waves of aircraft.

antrik

They might open orders gradually, as they originally did in US?…

Either way, there will surely be quite a lot of orders from Europe. Question is, how many exactly? This will likely inform the decision whether they will go ahead increasing capacity to 10,000 per week in Fremont as originally planned, or keep it at 7,000, with the accelerated Shanghai plant filling the rest… (They seemed undecided about that on the earnings call.)

Dav8or

It’s refreshing to see Tesla deliver a new product in a timely manor. Maybe things are working smoother over there. I think this MR option is going to be pretty popular. Hopefully they don’t decide to suddenly delete it. I don’t expect that though. What I do suspect is that they are setting up for the midrange to be the new base model and after a short run of the SR, that option will be yanked.

chacama

Actually your rationale makes enormous sense: at $40k the MR becomes a no brainer against the new Leaf or Bolt.

Spoonman.

Pretty hard to justify a Bolt Primier at its current price against this.

Dan F.

Bolts get discounted. Mid range (see above) is $49k.

Spoonman.

Bolts are also available in Shock (aka Driver Confidence Package III), and they’ve finally allowed the safety features in the LT trim, so that’s two more points for the Bolt.

If I’m getting a Bolt it’s with all three Driver Confidence Packages.

tester

Mid Range is $46k.

Dan F.

The mid range is $46k plus delivery and a color; about $49k plus tax.

antrik

Obviously he is assuming that non-premium interior will be available at some point, bringing down the price to $41,000. $40,000 was presumably based on the original $45,000 price for premium mid-range.

(And what tax exactly are Bolt and Leaf exempted from, that you’d have to bring up in a price comparison?…)

antrik

FUD. The only reason they’d yank the short-range variant, would be if it didn’t get any meaningful number of orders. Unless the mid-range gets discounted at some point to cost barely more than the short-range, that’s extremely unlikely.

Also, they wouldn’t be pouring resources into a dedicated architecture for the smaller pack, if they were planning only a short run.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

USA ASP on entry-level premium cars is $42.5k. That’s right where SR + PUP + paint + delivery is.
At launch Elon Musk said expected Model 3 ASP of $42k.
There is no way that Tesla will not want to make the SR.
They will prioritize higher orders, but deleting the SR would be a failure.

Viking79

I think they can’t build the quantity they want without the standard version. It really is crucial to what they are doing.

F150 Brian

So there was the “order by Oct 15” to get full tax credit and now we see a mid range model 3 delivered quickly after we were thinking this would be the model that starts post full credit.
something seems amiss here.
Shouldn’t the pre-October 15th orders consumed the build capacity for the rest of the year?
Shouldn’t all of those orders be LR, since they hadn’t launched the MR then?

arne-nl

The “the “order by Oct 15” to get full tax credit” was a guarantee by Tesla that you would get it this year. They never gave the opposite promise: “order after 15 Oct and get your car in 2019”. And mind you, delivery times for the east coast are longer, so they had to draw a line somewhere that would work for all customers.

Ron M

Did Tesla sell any TM3’s in Canada in October

Yes. From report card:

“Finally, remember that some Model 3s are still going to Canada (perhaps as many as 1,000 are/were headed that direction in October).”

Gabriel Donda

I currently see about six or seven model 3 a day in Oakville, Ontario (outside of Toronto)

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD -Past-500e and Spark EV,

Let’s see if the battery cells were truly the new bottleneck with the reduction of the cells — if they can ramp up past 7000 units/week

Doggydogworld

Cells aren’t the bottleneck. Musk said so in the call.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. And Wade Malone said Tesla’s rate of production (at least for the Model 3) has stabilized. So I don’t think we should expect any significant increase in production until Tesla starts shipping to Europe, probably in January next year.

Looks like Tesla has turned its focus to improving other things: Reducing delivery times, expanding capacity for auto service and repair, and improving availability of replacement parts. Presumably also reducing production costs and/or streamlining the production process.

antrik

Why would they be ramping cell production if they didn’t intend to ramp vehicle production as well?…

Doggydogworld

They do plan to increase Model 3 output gradually. They also need cells for energy storage, they’ve had to buy most of those from 3rd parties.

scott

I wonder if Tesla will produce 500k cars in 2019. Maybe 2020 is more realistic.

Manuel

It’s completely possible. For having 500k cars produced per year you need to have 500.000/52 weeks per year = 9615 cars per week. Let’s take 2000 cars per week for both Model S & X and you have a medium production of Model 3 for the whole 2019 of 7615 per week. Tesla’s goal is to reach 10k per week, so totally doable.

Manuel

In 2020 Tesla’s yearly production would be at least 12k*52 = 624k, but in the meantime Model Y production will have already started, maybe in China… and who knows about the pickup. Who knows about the fact that Model S & X could increase from the current 100k/year, or about the Model 3 production that could even exceed the planned 10k maximum. Then there’s the Roadster, which will be for sure a low volume a car but not as much as the first generation… I think in 2020 Tesla will definitely produce more than 700k cars and more than 1 million in 2021. And without considering the Semi which obviously isn’t a car.

antrik

The pickup definitely won’t come in 2020. Not sure about the Roadster, but doesn’t seem too likely either…

However, between the Model Y starting production, maybe some increase in Model S + X, and possibly higher demand for Model 3 (it was pretty clear on the earnings call that they haven’t fixed the exact volume, since ultimate demand remains to be seen), I think the 700,000 or 800,000 cars in 2020 that Elon estimated on the previous earnings call are perfectly plausible.

antrik

450,000 is my low estimate for 2019 — though it could easily be 500,000 or more, depending on how fast assembly in Shanghai will ramp up, and whether they decide to keep ramping production in Fremont beyond 7,000 per week. (The latter presumably depending on how well non-Chinese demand keeps up…)

Doggydogworld

I can’t see assembling more than 1000/week in China until they get a local battery deal and onsite body and paint lines. That’s late 2020 or early 2021.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Not 500k cars in 2019.
On the call they suggested that they should be able to ramp to 7,000 Model 3 per week without significant capital expenditure, which would be about 325k per year. Add in 100k S+X and that would be only* 425k.

Given the current focus on repaying debt, and the focus on the Shanghai GF3, I think that we wouldn’t see 500k until 2020 at least.

* Hehehe

ffbj

First impressions really count, Tsuga, President of Panasonic, shares his of Elon Musk, and some sundries.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/panasonic-says-gigafactory-profit-in-sight-as-tesla-ramps-output?srnd=premium

ModernMarvelFan

MR will dominate the volume between now and end of the year.

antrik

It terms of orders, probably. In terms of actual output, it depends on how fast they scale production of the new variant…

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Well, given that it’s an LR RWD with fewer cells, I doubt they’ll have trouble ramping.

Bolt driver

Probably since the LR is now only for awd and orders placed prior to the MR release.

Mike I.

The Mid-Range Model 3 is still not at FuelEconomy.gov. How did Tesla deliver cars without the formal EPA ratings being released?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Presumably, by using a temporary (or interim) EPA sticker, just as they did with early production units of the Model 3. Apparently the EPA does not publish numbers for their interim stickers.

Spoonman.

Same way Jaguar delivered that one I-Pace to a guy earlier this month.

antrik

Perhaps the most interesting bit is that he was a first-day reservation holder — so contrary to what some naysayers were claiming, it seems Tesla is still honouring reservation order when introducing new variants, just as they promised 🙂

Tom Harrison

Under-promising and over-delivering — a new strategic angle for Tesla after SEC muzzled Elon 🙂 My assumption was that there was very little new engineering to make the MR model happen: software/firmware mods to correct for unexpected voltages or BMS states, perhaps, a fair amount of configuration and retesting of battery assembly process, etc. But most of these are “settings” oe “properties”, not new software or hardware development. As a result, the whole testing process has been established and executed probably thousands of times per day. Retesting is vastly simpler.