Tesla Model 3 Market Dominance May Be Imminent

Tesla Model 3

MAR 31 2018 BY EVANNEX 96

TESLA’S MODEL S MARKET DOMINANCE COULD FORESHADOW MODEL 3’S FUTURE

Recently famed Apple analyst Gene Munster predicted market share gains ahead for Tesla based on a survey executed by his firm Loup Ventures. It turns out there are other indicators that point to market share gains down the line for Tesla. With so much riding on the success of Model 3, Seeking Alpha’s Victor Dergunov remains convinced that a stock “breakout appears imminent… and new all-time highs [are] very likely” for Tesla.

RELATED: The Long-Term Case For The Tesla Model 3

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

Blue Tesla Model 3 and Silver Model S

Tesla Model 3 on the same road as Model S (Source: Michael Schoening/EVANNEX)

 

Dergunov bases his assumptions on a variety of reasons, but one factor — Tesla’s pre-established Model S market dominance — could prove indicative of future success with Model 3. Across the pond, “Model S outsold Germany’s big three luxury sedan manufacturers on their own European home turf last year. Model S sales rose a whopping 30% yoy to 16,132 units in Europe. Model S sales came in well ahead of Mercedes S Class’ 13,359 units, and BMW 7 series’ 11,735 units.”

Blue Tesla Model S

Tesla’s flagship sedan, the Model S (Instagram: beatus100)

And it’s not just Europe where Model S is winning big. Back here in the U.S., “Model S dominated its market segment, selling more units than Mercedes S class, BMW 7 series, and Audi A8 combined. Furthermore, while Tesla saw its U.S. sales increase by about 10% over last year, S Class declined by 15.5%, 7 Series sales were down by 28%, Lexus LS sales declined by 25%, and Audi A8 gave up about 25% as well.”

Tesla Store: Red Tesla Model 3

cA look inside the Tesla store (Instagram: beautyoftesla)

Can all this success foreshadow future market share penetration for Tesla’s lower-priced Model 3 sedan? Dergunov points out five reasons why Model S market dominance could prove “significant” for Tesla shareholders moving forward…

  1. It shows that Model S is capable of not only competing with electric vehicles, but it demonstrates that Tesla vehicles can dominate their respective automotive segments whether it’s competing with EVs or ICE vehicles.
  2. It shows that ICE auto buyers have a “strong willingness” to switch to Tesla automobiles, as indicated by declining sales in most other major competing manufacturers.
  3. It shows that even on their home turf in Europe, German automakers are not immune from relinquishing market share to Tesla.
  4. It shows that if Tesla can achieve this level of success in both Europe and the U.S., the trend can continue to other regions, most notably Asia.
  5. It shows that if the Model S can reach this level of success in the large luxury sedan segment, the Model 3 can reach a similar level of domination in the higher volume mid-sized luxury sedan segment.

Gray Tesla vehicle lineup

All three Teslas parked together (Instagram: elonmusk.manofcentury)

And just in case folks thought that Tesla’s success (with Model S) was a “fluke” only possible in that particular market segment, Dergunov points out similar success (with Model X) in a vastly different SUV segment. Even on Germany’s home turf in Europe, he points out, “the Model X also sold extremely well, as European sales came in at 12,000 units last year. Tesla’s SUV outsold much of the competition, selling about as often as the Porsche Cayenne vehicle, and even beating out BMW’s popular X6 model.”

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Source: Seeking Alpha

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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96 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Market Dominance May Be Imminent"

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Just looking at the sales of EVs in other countries. I cannot see the Model 3 ever having market dominance in most countries. China for instance you have EVs being sold there from $20-25,000. Europe, the same thing. Not to mention you have Nissan claiming that they are selling almost 10,000 leafs a month.

In their market segment. Not the total market.

China has direct gov’t subsidies to EV makers, so their prices will appear much lower than the pre-incentive prices elsewhere in the world.

In worldwide sales YTD 2018 the Tesla model 3 comes in at number ten.
In the manufacturer’s Tesla is number five.

Tesla’s Supercharger network coupled with free use for the S/X vehicle lifetime has been a major selling point which will previsibly lessen as paying for it is introduced with M3 and the competition moves to catch up.

TESLA has a Europe network. No one else does.

Doesn’t matter.

It’s truly does matter unless you are not someone who likes to drive your car outside of a circle ⭕️

Doesn’t *

Does too. A lot.

In European EV sales YTD 2018 the Tesla Model D comes in at number 20.

A Model D hasn’t even been announced yet and it’s already selling in 20th place? Amazing news!

Sorry should have been Model S at number 20.

“Tesla’s SUV outsold much of the competition, selling about as often as the Porsche Cayenne vehicle, and even beating out BMW’s popular X6 model.”

I hope they meant BMW X5, because the X6 is low volume comparatively speaking.

In European EV sales YTD 2018 the Tesla Model D comes in at number 20.

Tesla is in a great position as ICE car makers “catch up”. Tesla has put all ICE car companies in a horrible position. The only way they can compete against Tesla is to build EV’s that are better than their own current ICE offerings. This converts more car owners from ICE buyers into EV buyers. The larger the number of EV buyers in the world, the larger the potential customer pool becomes for all companies who sell competitive EV’s. A growing pool of EV buyers simply increases the sales opportunities for Tesla. Currently Tesla has no chance to compete in a sale to a customer who is only looking at ICE cars to purchase. But suddenly Tesla has a brand new sales opportunity if that same customer goes to their ICE dealership and decides that EV’s are now an option they are willing to consider. Now Tesla has a much bigger chance of competing for that sale. As ICE car companies grow the EV market with their own customers by providing EV’s superior to their ICE products, they will grow the entire pool of EV buyers. Tesla benefits more from the conversion of buyers from ICE buyers to EV buyers… Read more »

+1

@ Nix

Well said

+1

Haha, you have to be able to build them to sell them…

My sentiment exactly. The biggest hurdle for Tesla success is Tesla itself, or Tesla incompetence. I can’t wait to see March sales report. I suspect it’ll be another low number when they should be producing 40,000 per month!

3,000 US sales for March will be enough to keep the MoM increase at 30%. Anything over that is gravy.
Another MoM increase of 30% for April would get the 3 to 4,000.
It isn’t what Elon stated earlier, but it would be good enough.
Tesla doesn’t have to hit it out of the park with the 3 sales. A steady series of singles/30% MoM increases will win the game.

What is generally missed is Tesla can sell 10K Model 3s each month but if their borrowing capacity, ST debt obligations, production process problems and overall autopilot issues cut into any revenue insolvency becomes a real possibility.

Anyone looking to acquire / partner with Tesla will check their ACTUAL finances and may determine their business case was flawed from the start and will be reluctant to sink money into a long-term losing proposition.

Tesla is operating under an Elon Black Box of hopes and aspirations.

Those Finance folks did not leave because they were bored. They have professional reputations to maintain and may not have been comfortable about what they were being asked to report for Q1 progress.

Would like to know if the senior employees who recently left Tesla are bound to a NDA. That would speak volumes.

There is absolutely no chance of insolvency. Tesla’s valuation is still high. At $260, even at $200, they can get billions with little dilution.
Some significant changes are possible though. There might be a move to put a grown-up between Musk and the company, the equivalent of Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX.
Also, if Tesla self-drive g fails to appear, a deal with Waymo is probable. Musk is a friend of Sergei. Remember that Google was the savior of last resort before. Shorts may hope Tesla goes away all they want, but it’s not going to happen.

Everything you mentioned is very real, and very important. But you forgot about one thing, BRAND VALUE. The Tesla brand carries significant value in the market, and like him or not that is in large part due to Musk and his marketing capabilities. Worst case scenario is that a real manufacturing company will acquire Tesla is the share price drops below a certain point. They will keep the brand and turn production around to make the operation profitable. Ownership may change, but the Tesla brand will live on.

Then you better not look at the latest production numbers if you want to keep your delusions.

Haha. They are ramping up production. They made more this quarter than last. They will make more next quarter than this one. They are assembling a second assembly line brought in from Germany which will double their output.

I find it amusing how this same scenario with Tesla plays out over and over and every time we have the same doomsayers with such short memories of recent history singing the same tune.

In January and February 16 Tesla stock dropped 100 points after Model X missed production targets in Q4 15 following a slow ramp up due to production growing pains. The exact same things were being said then. “Tesla bit off more than they could chew with the overly complex falcon wing doors” and “they can’t sustain borrowing this much money and will be bankrupt soon” and “they should have focused only on production of the Model X instead of getting distracted on starting on a new model now known as the Model 3” etc.

As we all know in the following month their stock climbed back 100 points and then kept going.

It is the woefully ignorant who don’t have a clue what they are talking about that are hurting Tesla and casting doubt.

1) The assembly line you describe is for batteries!!!! ‘Grohman has designed a new automated system for module production for its battery factory near Reno, Nevada’.

2) Tesla has indicated for quite some time that a second assembly line will require a capital raise (which has not been secured at this time)

When you don’t have the facts, maybe being quiet is preferred. You are doing Tesla no favors.

They are already building them and selling them. The Model 3 just outsold the Audi A4 in the United States last month. It is the best selling EV in the United States by a substantial margin. Some people are so dogmatically fixated on the target numbers that the Model 3 hasn’t achieved yet, that they have become absolutely BLIND to the massive sales achievements that the Model 3 HAS ALREADY achieved. FACTS: After just barely getting past half a year of production, the Model 3 has gone from near the bottom of the US EV sales list to firmly on top. That is quite an achievement. In fact, most EV companies have failed to get any car on the top of the list in all the years insideev’s has tracked sales, much less after only 6 months of production: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard The Model 3 has beat Audi A4 sales much faster than the Model S took to beat Audi A8 sales. This despite only one single variant is available for sale at a single price point, versus a variety of trim levels and price points available for the Audi A4. Sorry haters, it’s already happening. You are suffering huge denial.

A4 does not have 500K people waiting nor does any EV. If any company barely made 5K EV with 500K waiting after over half a year in production, people will be screaming “compliance car!” Tesla as a long term company is probably ok, but they need a swift kick in the nuts to wake the hell up.

Canceling reservation might be one way to do it; people are getting tired of waiting! We are not going to wait 10+ years if they’re “increasing production” the way they have been.

Plenty of day-1 reservation holders where I live, new to Tesla, are getting their Model III. Additionally, one thing that’s been unexpected is that the folks into driving are enjoying driving the Model III enough that they are selling their Model S used and buying the Model III.

I can’t imagine ever selling my Model S for such a reason, but I’m a different buyer. I am the sort to drive a car until there’s no life left in it for me. I don’t know what that looks like in an aluminum frame and paneling vehicle that has no transmission and a swappable battery.

Plenty of day 1, maybe. But I go by numbers: less than 2500 in whole month of Feb while 500K waiting means over 10 years of waiting. The excuse Tesla gave was some equipment or another; while that may be acceptable after 1 or 2 months into production, after half a year is just plain incompetence. I fear we have more incompetence to come. “Spare the rod, spoil the child” may apply here.

Spark, you are using last months 3 sales to predict what future 3 deliveries will be. That is the same sort of fallacious argument that Mackinac used when they said that the each Volt cost GM $250,000 by adding up all the possible tax credits & the development costs and then divided them by the amount of Volts sold to date. It isn’t a lie, but it is deceptive. The 3 production rate is going up every month so it is obvious that the 400,000+ reservation holders won’t see their place in line move up by by February’s production number of 2480 each month thereafter, they will move up much faster as 3 production numbers continue to rise. If Tesla increases their 3 sales MoM by 35% for just 5 months they will be selling over 11,000 a month. They may not get to 10k a month soon, but they will get there. And to put it another way, if not the 3 then who is supposed to dominate the BEV market for the next year or two? The Bolt is perceived to be a small Chevy with poor interior, a face only a mother could love and cra**y seats.… Read more »

I’m basing it on last 8 months of sale, yet still less than 2500 in whole month of Feb. Meanwhile, excuses come flying out.

Sure, Tesla 3 will sell most EV among all models from anywhere even this year. But against backdrop of 400K+ waiting, such slow progress after announcing 2500 per week is incompetence at worst; or at least I hope it’s the worst, which I hope to mean things could only get better.

“Canceling reservation might be one way to do it; people are getting tired of waiting!”

LOL!!

I love the logic of canceling a reservation in order to get something sooner, when the reservation is the only way to get that item sooner.

Funny how you think that growing to be the top selling EV in the US after barely over 6 months of production begins somehow is a sign of Tesla dragging their feet. Your comments are exactly the self-blinded comments I was talking about.

Self blinded is thinking Tesla is doing a great job after over half a year and barely 500 cars while having 500K+ waiting. Take your Tesla goggles off, and you’ll see how awful that is.

Just one canceled reservation from me won’t send any message, but you people canceling by hundreds of thousands will send a message: hurry the hell up or else the demand could dry up!

Your logic resembles a toddler who wants Christmas to come sooner, so he demands he will hold his breath until it comes sooner.

Take YOUR GM goggles off.. Tesla’s production is exponential it doubles every 2 years trying to respond to the demand of Model S/X, and now 3.
They had to build a second assembly plant just for the Model 3, and now it is slowly but steadily sarting to warm up.
You cannot compare this to GM with 99 already existing faciloties, or Nissan with 35, Toyota ~40, VW ~60, etc.

The dwarf is doing better than all the giants together!

US sales are good, but there’s ultimately a whole world out there. On the world stage, the Model 3 is getting outsold by at least the Leaf and probably will for some time.

WillTroll continues to parrot his hero the Trumpster here.

The Breitbart rot runs deep in our society by these fake American “patriots”.

Paint with a broad brush much? You may want to leave politics out of this, as you’ll find you are wrong about as often as you are right.

I’m a former Leaf owner, Model 3 reservation holder, and general EV and Tesla fan. I didn’t vote for Trump (Gary Johnson) but like and agree with a lot of what he says, and I listen to Breitbart radio almost daily.

Get Real is actually a Dump supporting nut job. He’s stating all these left-wing negativity that antagonize everyone fully knowing that will push people to vote for Dump. He saw how Antifa tactics pushed people to sympathize with Dump supporters, and he’s doing exactly the same to help Dump get re-elected.

Internet is filled with these Dump supports faking as left wing nut jobs, and I fear they are going to get Dump re-elected. If we get 8 years of Dump, we can thank the likes of Get Real.

Bingo.

Another Euro point of view

“Seeking Alpha’s Victor Dergunov remains convinced that a stock breakout appears imminent”.

Which side, up or down ?

If you had been paying attention to TSLA’s highly volatile stock prices, you would realize the answer is a clear and resounding:

BOTH

Based upon past trends, TSLA share prices are likely to go both up and down in the coming year. Or down and up. That’s the definition of a volatile stock.

The bonds being seven levels below
investment grade doesn’t bode well going
forward though. That debt needs to be paid out soon

Those are unsolicited ratings. Basically:

“You won’t pay us to rate your bonds, and you won’t provide the inside information to our bond rating unit that they would need to accurately rate your bonds? It would be a shame if your bonds got a low rating”

How do we know this is what happens? Because we know history. Because securities which are given unsolicited ratings, typically get rated 2-3 levels higher when they pay to have their securities rated. The new higher solicited ratings are typically excused with terminology like “with the additional information provided by XXXXXX ratings were adjusted to Y”.

Sorry you don’t know the difference between unsolicited and solicited ratings.

I can’t help it if you don’t know the difference

Still has 1.2 billion plus in bonds due and payable by 2019

Also what is the current factor rate they are
paying on new leases?

Those are convertible bonds. What is your point? Are you somehow under the delusion that Tesla will have to pay $1.2 billion out of their cash on hand in 2019 for those bonds?

Those convertibles are way out of the money. Unless Tesla’s stock soars they absolutely will have to repay in cash.

No. The way bonds are usually paid is by issuing new bonds. The success of the new bonds issue will depend on the state of Tesla at that time. If Model 3 production is running at full steam, there will be plenty of buyers for the new bond issue.
A bet against Tesla is dangerous because Tesla does usually come through. Late, or very late, but they do get their act together. Betting that Model 3 production will still be in trouble in 2019 is probably not very smart.

That’s correct.

+1

Sure, if…

-AP doesn’t get shut down by the NHTSA
-Tesla can actually meet Model 3 demand
-Tesla can meet its mounting financial obligations without going Chapter 11
-They keep customers in spite of quality issues
-Can satisfy customers with only a handful of service centers.

What a fluff piece. The Model 3 can go ahead and dominate without me; I’ll spend my $1000 returned deposit somewhere else until they build a car I can trust and afford.

Why did you deposit 1000,- if you lcannot afford it“?

Either because he planned on the $35k vehicle, like many folks, or he was doing it because it was a fad.

Actually the $35K buyer was probably hoping on the $7,500 Fed Tax credit, which would bring the price down to $27,500 which is very competitive for a 210 range EV. The funny thing would be if such a buyer gets their deposit refunded and the Government approves an extension, they’d be put at the end of the waiting list if they wanted the car again.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3 (soon)

Even if the $7500 starts to sunset, there will be a full quarter where folks might be able to buy the $35K version for around $31K, and possibly as low as 26 to 29K with additional state rebates.

Still a pretty good deal, even if the full $7500 isn’t available by then. Some people have poor impulse control, and math might not be their strongest skill.

Of that list, only AP is a potential problem. The rest is not a real problem. Customer satisfaction is high, chapter 11 isn’t going to happen, production will be resolved.
I honestly don’t know how many people are in it for the autopilot. I couldn’t care less about it, and I know others who feel the same, but some percentage of people probably care. We will find out how important this is in practice.

Tesls’s products are impressive though I for one would prefer a more conventional control/display system (like the S) in the 3.

They are not competing for the mass market though this is just as well because that would only loose money for at least the near future.

They have a big crunch that is still getting worse in their ability to maintain the cash and credit they need to keep going.

They may have to reorganize under chapter 11 or more likely, I think, will end up selling a majority of the company to a another large company with deep pockets (Alphabet/waymo?) at a large discount to the now current stock price. This would rescue the bond holders but seriously dilute the current stockholders. But better to have a smaller part of something than be wiped out in a bankruptcy.

“loose money”

It is hard to take the financial predictions seriously of someone who doesn’t know the difference between “loose money” and “lose money”. LOL!!!!!

Loose Or Lose (=LOL).

Tesla Model 3 is this decades most significant new car that will be known as the inflection point of the start of mass consumer adoption of EVs. This is not Tesla Cult talk… it’s numerical fact… starting with the current over 400K paid reservations for Tesla Model 3 which is unprecedented in automotive history.

Tesla currently is and will remain a successful car maker for many years to come even though Tesla is not principally a car maker. Those analysts that put heavy weight on evaluation of Tesla using quarter-to-quarter production numbers should be more focused on FYQ/FYQ production gowth momentum and also Tesla’s continued success of execution of building wide moat infrastructure (such as Tesla’s global Supercharger Network & Battery Giga Factory) .

The Model 3 just outsold the Audi A4 in the United States last month, as A4 sales dropped year-over-year.

We don’t have to wonder IF the Model 3 will repeat what the Model S did compared to Audi A8 sales. We are already seeing it in real time.

(based upon numbers provided by goodcarbadcar and insideevs)

„famed Apple analyst Gene Munster„

Pöease, he had one of the worst ratings and track records among AAPLanalysts.

Look, admitted Seeking Liars Tesla shorter trollftf finally posts here under his Trollftf username instead of one of the fake ones he uses to try and FUD people!

Are you referring to Tesla For The Future? I mean *Tales*, LOL.

This article seems very short sighted. Market dominance in the luxury and premium sectors does not mean Tesla will succeed. Traditional car manufacturing is a very low margin business and subject to health of the world economy and its days are numbered. Either you have to have a strong brand, lots of cash or you make your money on volume. When the economy turns sour, you better hope there is a government is there to bail you out. A strong economy is favoring Tesla now but this was 2009 and they are trying to transition to building vehicles en mass… they’ll go bankrupt. That is why if you are new to this game you need a completely different business model… either raise your margins by reducing labor or develop a new model to profit off transportation… i.e. sell trips and miles instead of cars. I feel that the VW, BMW and Daimler AG will be left in the dust when they try to compete against a new business model and Japanese manufacturers will follow. It’s almost certain, one or two of the big three will die as well.

I think one fact that shorters of Tesla stock seem to overlook, is that they seem to think that Tesla’s competition is EVs and that they’ll be under threat when other manufacturers enter the EV market siting the iPace as stiff competition. The thing is, Tesla is already competing with everyone, their sales are strong not because they are an EV and a bunch of eco warriors are buying their cars, it’s because their cars are better, both looks and performance. I’m British, and American cars are normally pretty awful, but Tesla is exceptional and the Model S is the best car I’ve ever driven. It’s only issue for me is it’s slightly big for some of the windy country lanes I drive down, so I look forward to the Model 3 arrival. Tesla is a relatively unknown brand over in the UK, but with no advertising they’re doing surprisingly well. Let’s face it an Audi A4 (the default go to car currently for mass affluent) or a model 3, from what I know, the model 3 will just be better than the German equivalents and so sales will follow. If I shorted stock, I’d probably short every major auto… Read more »

They make their money on pickup trucks and SUVs.

Chris L get it!

Meanwhile Honda announces that they are idling their accord production because of excessive inventory.

Another Euro point of view

It is cute to see that some still believe in father Christmas Elon 🙂

Well Another Euro Troll, you should ask MB about Tesla and how they have severely impacted their S class sales.

Anyways, keep driving your “Clean Diesel”!

I think Tesla’s advantage is/was that they are/were the only ones with a decent good looking fast car that is no comprise like electric cars used to be in the past. But now Tesla is no longer without competition in the luxury segment. So it is not really predictable how S and X compete to other luxury cars in this segment like in 2 or 3 years. But I still think that the Tesla Model S is a great car and with Tesla further developing it, it has a good chance to stay and has a fair share in the market. But it’s a little different with Model 3 now because many other car makers are getting into the market too with 30K-40K electric vehicles that have a decent range. So there’s definitely more competition than 2012. But again those hundreds of thousand of deposits show that there are huge interests in the car. And the Tesla brand stands for sexiness and fast electric cars with a good range and many people know that by now despite not advertising in a traditional way. That’s a huge achievement for Tesla and certainly helps to find customers for the company. Nonetheless Tesla… Read more »

Tesla has another advantage, which is that they are the only maker who really wants to sell EV’s in volume. Consider the 200+ mile-range competition: Bolt, Kona, I-Pace. GM is targeting 30,000 sales per year. Hyundai is targeting 30,000 sales per year. Jaguar is targeting 30,000 sales per year. They do not want to and will not sell any more than that! What they do sell is more often than not extremely expensive for its vehicle class, very weird looking, and very limited in distribution. The legacy automakers talk big, offer lots of press releases about how much they have committed to EV’s, and offer lots of odd looking concept cars, but actually do as little as legally possible.

Tesla is targeting 1,000,000 cars per year and putting both the manufacturing and charging infrastructure in place to support those volumes. They executing by offering sexy, fast, long range cars, that offer competitive prices within their vehicle class, and a worldwide infrastructure that makes them practical.

+1

+1

While I’m generally optimistic about Tesla’s future, one serious issue they still have to deal with is legislative hurdles. I’m in the Finger Lakes region of NY State, which is a ghost town for Tesla facilities. There are supposedly bills in the state gov’t here that would allow Tesla to open stores upstate, and I believe Tesla has said they want to add several along the I-90 corridor (essentially Buffalo to Albany) and elsewhere.

Given that the nearest Tesla shops are in Toronto and Cleveland, it’s encouraging to see any Teslas on the road here. My wife and I spot them from time to time, with NY plates. If they had facilities nearby, I’m sure they’d sell a lot of units.

And based on the nightmarish experience I had with a traditional car franchise lately, Tesla-like company stores can’t get here too soon for my preference.

Hi Lou – where are you located in upstate NY. I live near Canandaigua and should be getting my Model 3 in June (according to Tesla and the other web site that predicts delivery based on date and time of reservation, in-store vs. in line, etc). I wrote to Brian Kolb, my state representative. This is his reply: Thank you for contacting my office regarding your support for opening more Tesla stores in New York State. It is a pleasure to hear from you. Assembly Bill 8248-A attempts to undue an agreement made only four years ago that Tesla would be given exemption from State law mandating that new motor vehicles be sold through franchised dealers and generally prohibiting manufacturers from controlling those dealerships. Tesla insists that their cars cannot be sold by independent dealerships and must be sold strictly through Tesla-controlled stores. No other manufacturers contend that a change in State law is necessary to produce and sell electric vehicles. Currently, industry sources suggest that Tesla stores represent less than one percent of sales of its vehicles. A majority of their sales are done online. Thus, it is questionable whether establishing new Tesla stores would significantly increase sales. Consumers… Read more »

Absolutely vote that guy out! Furthermore, write a reply that (politely) lets him know you are going to do just that. And write letters to the editor etc to get the word out. Politicians who think we the people need our government to play nanny for us need to go. Franchise dealers provide significant benefit to consumers, really? Make the market free, and let the consumer decide what provides benefit!

This is a confusing article to me in that, from what people have been saying for the past several months at least, THE MODEL 3 ALREADY HAS MARKET DOMINANCE. I’m wondering exactly what percentage of new buyers are refusing to accept their Model 3’s due to the scratches and gouges problem mentioned on this weeks TMC thread. From what I’ve seen of the M3, I haven’t seen any innate design problems – on the other hand not much info has been released to date other than what individual owners say. The one liner seems to be, if you get a GOOD ‘3’, or one that can be ‘detailed’ by a Service Center, you’ve received a good product. Its the “S”, and “X” that always seem to have the wheels fall off or get lost during any collisions. But if any percentage of prospective owners decide to refuse acceptance, I would think there would be a problem – especially since the new directive is to throw the cars together even faster – THROW is the operative word, since Scratches and Gouges were unacceptable on a $3995 YUGO, and, as an ongoing issue, it is obviously being put at a very low… Read more »

Bill, nobody here cares what you think or for the bs you spread.

Not true, I care what Bill thinks, even if I don’t always agree with him. And I value forums like IEVs that allow people to express their opinions even when those opinions may be unpopular. Remember, group think is why the Challenger exploded.

Why would you want wheels to stay with the vehicle in a high impact collision? It is much better to have them break away instead of having them jam into the passenger compartment.

Wheels have zero crumple zone value. They compress very poorly.

Volvo demonstrated the clear advantage of having wheels break away in the small overlap crash test:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnRIwQn9SA8

Can anyone help me with a website problem. The insideev banner keeps dropping down and blocking text.. very irritating..

The banner is there to let you access the menu, take you back to the top of the page, use the search bar, and go to pages like the monthly scorecard and compare EVs. It has to be available since there is no bottom on the page, and once you scroll down through the virtual pages, you have no other way back up. It will only drop down when you attempt top scroll back up toward the top. If you don’t scroll up, it remains hidden. The devs are addressing other options and a way to get it to not popup or distract. They’ve worked out out a huge list of site bugs and suggestions already. This will be fixed in the next wave of adjustments. Thank you for your input.

On my samsung tablet in landscape position the keyboard takes up about 40% of the screen. When I tried to post the message the banner kept coming down and blocking the text fields that I was trying to fill in. I don’t have a problem on my pc. It is very frustrating on the tablet. At this point the old web page was far better for me.

It’s good to know about the tablet. We addressed desktop issues first and are dealing with mobile compatibility now. Specifically, different mobile phones. We haven’t received much feedback on tablets, so thank you very much.

I don’t use mobile, but at least on the desktop there are other ways to get back to the top. If you have a bookmark, just select it again. If not, just search for insideevs on the web and get back that way. Either way is better than having a drop down logo that sometimes appears and sometimes doesn’t.

On a mobile phone, the recent website update they did is just terrible. They say they are working on it, but after all this feedback it is still the same for me. Banners dropping over text, video content covered by advertising, social media icons at the bottom of the page (I’m using Facebook, why do I want to see these?), The input box is cut off and scrolls left and right, mostly just cutting off what I’m typing. And take a look at any comment thread, eventually it gets to just one word per line if enough people keep commenting.
I hope they fix it soon, it’s certainly a step backwards.

It’s definitely being addressed, but the desktop was first priority. We’ve done about 60 fixes to desktop. Mobile is next. We’ve fixed a handful of the mobile issues, but have a long list and it’s different depending on mobile platform, so each fix needs to address iOS as well as Android, and then also the different browsers. Our goal is for mobile to be amazing when it’s all done. Our last major overhaul was all mobile, so this one focused on desktop. Now, we have to adjust the mobile side for optimization. Keep us posted with issues. Send them to the site email and even include screenshots of what the troubles are. Thanks for your input!

Comparing Model X to X6 is equally moronic as comparing Model S to S class Merc. Those are 2 very different cars similar only in size. X6 is not “hugely popular”, X5 is – and sold 35000 units in Europe last year. X6 is a niche product based on X5 and still sold 10k in 2017. Model X outsold Cayenne by all of 67 units. The difference is Porsche actually made money on every single one of 11933 sold.

As for model 3 dominance. They have 400k pent up few years demand. Mercedes sold 415k of C class just last year. Without anybody queuing up for a whole day 2 years earlier to reserve one. The optimistic scenario is Tesla will make ~150k M3 this year. Tesla makes cool cars – but nowhere near as popular as author seems to think.

Well Raf, you should ask MB about Tesla and how they have severely impacted their S class sales.

I have stated comparing S class to Model S is moronic. Douglas DeMuro explains why here:

https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/the-tesla-model-s-is-absolutely-not-the-best-selling-luxury-sedan-in-america-258097

TL;DR Model S is a competition to E-class/5 series based on size and price. Just because Tesla calls it “full size luxury sedan” doesn’t make it true.

Don’t worry, people would also be waiting in the wings to see if the $35k model actually gets produced. If they do actually offer it then I think you will really see the flood gates open.

“stock breakout appears imminent… and new all-time highs [are] very likely”

Any assumptions about future stock prices for Tesla are mere speculation.
What we know for sure is:
– excessive and fast growing losses
– excessive and fast growing cash burn
– the need for an equity raise within the next months in order to survive (the largest equity raise ever btw)
– deteriorating conditions for debt financing (moodies downgrade, with the next downgrade already advertised)
– very serious problems with “Autopilot”
– severe quality issues with the model3
– the current stock price is still extremely high compared to other (much larger, and profitable) car manufacturers by any metric

so one might conclude, that there is very much room downside. And a very serious risk of bankruptcy

Personally I believe, the current stock market crash eventually was just the beginning.
(20 years experience in active stock market trading, and holding long term Tesla Put Options)

Tesla will have to raise money through the sale of new shares (debt seems unlikely). The question is at what price.

My guess is mid to upper two figures. Tough for the people who paid (a lot) more for their shares but it will keep the company going and growing.

The Model S is a great car and Tesla has been very successful selling it. But, it does not compete against the MUCH larger Mercedes S Class or BMW 7 Series. The Model S actually competes against the smaller mid size sedans like the E Class and 5 Series. In fact the Model S is slightly smaller than even those midsize vehicles by passenger volume, with only 94 ft3 vs 98 ft3 and 99 ft3 for the E Class and 5 Series respectively. Where the Model S excels is in luggage space. The combination of a hatchback which allows the area that would block the view out the back and the frunk mean that the Model S has basically twice the baggage area of competing and even larger sedans.