Tesla Model 3 Production Car #1 To Be Completed Friday, First 30 Deliveries July 28th

5 months ago by Jay Cole 128

Tesla Model 3 arriving soon! Finally!

The Tesla Model 3 has long been promised to arrive starting in July.

But as the calendar flipped to the month the car was to be delivered, and there was still zero information from Tesla on the actual release date of the EV (let alone the pricing or specs), some of the ~400,000 reservists were starting to get a little nervous – taking to Twitter to ask CEO Elon Musk ‘what was up?’ and ‘when would the Model 3 officially be released’.

The CEO’s only reply was “News on Sunday”:

Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk notes Model 3 “SN1” expected to be completed on Friday (July 7th)

And here we are, it’s Sunday (just barely, as the Tesla boss loves to late-night Tweet) and we finally have the “news” on the Tesla Model 3, specifically that production car #001 should be completed on Friday, July 7th, as all the reg requirements are out of the way a couple weeks early!

“Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday”

Musk added that the first 30 deliveries happen July 28th, with production growing exponentially.

With that said, the Tesla CEO’s estimate of 100 deliveries in August and 1,500 in September might be below the expectations of some of more ambitious forecasters out there (but just about in line with InsideEVs’ expectation for 25,000-35,000 odd deliveries in 2017 of the Model 3 when the production targets were first announced in February).

One assumes these 30 cars will be for ‘friends’ and employees of Tesla/SpaceX, along with the bulk of Model 3s delivered in August and September.  We reckon true public/retail deliveries won’t happen until October; which is why the online Design Studio and pricing have still yet to be revealed.

As for longer term production, in December Elon Musk sees 20,000 being built.

This 20k unit production for December, and the roll-out of production in July is basically bang on to Musk’s estimate during Tesla’s Q4 report last February:

Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”

Who will be in line to get VIN 0001?  Will there be a big party event? I guess we will need to stay tuned!

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128 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Production Car #1 To Be Completed Friday, First 30 Deliveries July 28th"

  1. Alan says:

    Thunderbirds are go !

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      You just won the internet! 😀

      1. floydboy says:

        That brings back some memories!

    2. Sy Gung Ho says:

      So, you are thinking the Model 3 will be powered by supermarionation. Cables hanging from satellites put up by Falcon 9? Nah, Musk is smart but not that smart.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Insiders have passed along this spy photo of the actual production Model 3:

        https://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/thunderbirds/images/0/0a/TB3.png

        1. super390 says:

          Well, that looks better than that 6-wheeled Rolls-Royce Lady Penelope runs around in.

    3. CDAVIS says:

      …This is Assembly Control calling all Zero X units. Assembly Phase One – go!

  2. CLIVE says:

    Tesla lets get this party started

    1. CLIVE says:

      Let’s get this party started ha

  3. Euro point of view says:

    That’s a little short

  4. Jay Cole says:

    …I’d like to say, tweeting news at 1:51 AM (ET) on July 4th weekend should not be allowed (let alone the day before sales), (=

    1. Euro point of view says:

      feel free to commute to Europe 🙂

      1. Jay Cole says:

        We do actually have our ‘man in Europe’ on the case now (Mark Kane), but I generally “hold down the fort” until ~2 AM before tagging out. I swear though, it’s like he knows when I start getting ready to pack it in for the night, (=

        1. cmina says:

          Hey, Jay! In the light of this latest announcement, when you’re done with the “Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard” and whatever else is on your plate currently, would you care to update this ?

          http://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev-credit-expiry-date-by-automaker-estimates/

          1. Jay Cole says:

            Yes, now that we have some I think reasonable expectation of M3 sales, it is probably time to revisit.

            Although I have to say, it is looking like we “totally nailed” (technical term) Model 3 sales for this year (/back pats)…so as far as Tesla goes, doubtful there will be much (if any) change.

    2. ClarksonCote says:

      Aww calm down Jay, it’s July 3rd! Hehe. That makes a 1:30am tweet only mostly unacceptable. 😉

  5. Euro point of view says:

    exponentially ? so in October it will be ? 20 K cars ?

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Unfortunately, describing the ramp-up as “exponential” doesn’t help much in predicting how swift the ramp-up will be. That just means that the increase in production every month will be a greater number of units than the last increase.

      You could, for example, describe a growth rate of x 1.01 every month as “exponential growth” and be mathematically accurate, even though that’s growing so slow as to be barely noticeable!

      It’s the same problem with “exponential growth” of EV sales. If sales every year are 20% larger than the year before, that is indeed exponential growth. It’s just not very fast exponential growth. If PEV (Plug-in EV) sales last year were (approximately) 1% of total car sales, then a sustained 20% exponential growth rate would take 4 years to reach 2%, and between 12 and 13 years to reach 10%. That’s not exactly taking over the auto market in a tidal wave!

      I hope that the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 will usher in an era of faster growth in PEV sales.

      1. Asak says:

        Yes, but even at that rate you get to the vast majority (or nearly all) cars being EVs in 25 or so years. That’s not actually that shabby. That being said I do think we will hit 10% EVs in less than 12 years.

        1. Kdawg says:

          Let’s go with “geometric rate”. This vid describes how Tesla AP will take over the world, and learn at a geometric rate.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “…even at that rate you get to the vast majority (or nearly all) cars being EVs in 25 or so years. That’s not actually that shabby.”

          I’ve been hoping to see the gasmobile become obsolete in favor of electric cars ever since I was a teenager, in the late 1960s. I don’t want to wait another 25 years to see that happen! I’m not even sure I’ll be around that long.

      2. ffbj says:

        Lets say 100 in August & 20k in December, as Musk suggests is possible.
        Aug: 100
        Sep: 100 x 10 = 1k
        Oct: 1k x 5 = 4k
        Nov: 4k x 2.5 = 10k
        Dec: 10k x 2 = 20k

        For a total of 35k.
        Anyway something like that.

      3. Davek says:

        I -think- that this isn’t quite correct, although I’m not a mathematician. Exponential growth means that the growth in each generation is raised to the power of the time elapsed, following the formula x(t)=x(0)*(1+r)^t (says Wikipedia, in any case). This is actually kind of fun, since with two data points Elon has already given us enough information to extrapolate as far as we want! x(0) is 30, and x(1) is 100. The next month, September, ends up being x(2), with a slightly disappointing 1111 cars produced. The good news is that 9 months in, Tesla will be producing over 1.5 million cars per month, and sometime in 2030 they’ll be making more cars per month than there are particles in the universe! Probably by the mid-2020’s they’ll have had to scrap the entire planet and turn it into TM3’s. Thanks Elon!

        Maybe that’s why he’s so interested in Mars? More TM3 feedstock? Hmmm…

        1. Davek says:

          I meant, of course, to say that our esteemed Pushmi-Pullyu wasn’t quite correct, as I understand it.

          Everything I wrote, on the other hand, is gospel 😉

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            You can make it more complicated if you want to. I chose to keep it simple. My example is mathematically correct for a fixed rate of exponential growth. My example isn’t realistic in that real-world exponential growth is rarely if ever an exact fixed rate over a long period of time, if that’s what you mean. But then, neither is any real-world growth rate.

            There are more complex examples of exponential growth that require a more complex formula than the simple one I used, but that doesn’t make my example wrong.

            * * * * *

            Quoting from Wikipedia’s “Exponential growth” article:

            For instance, with a starting value of 50 and a growth rate of r = 5% = 0.05 per interval, the passage of one interval would give 50(1.05 )^1, or simply 50×1.05; two intervals would give 50(1.05 )^2, or simply 50×1.05×1.05; and three intervals would give 50(1.05 )^3, or simply 50×1.05×1.05×1.05.

            That’s exactly the sort of math I used.

            source:
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

            1. Davek says:

              Sure, but while we sit here arguing the finer points of mathematics, Elon Musk is putting the finishing touches on his evil plan to smash the universe and everything we hold dear and then turn the bits into impractical cars with silly interiors! Is no one else concerned about this?! WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!

              But, you know, not THIS sheeple: https://xkcd.com/1013/

              😉

        2. TM says:

          The more general expression is:

          x(t)=x(0)*(1+r)^(a*t)

          or x(t)=x(0)*e^(t/tau)
          where e=2.71828 and tau is the time constant and t is the time in units of your choosing as long as tau uses the same units.

          1. Rick says:

            You guys are such math geeks.

        3. Loboc says:

          Exponential growth, at any rate, cannot exceed the physical limitations of the assembly plant. Unless Elon builds sufficient plants to sustain this wild growth,it will peak out at ~500k units/year @ Fremont. In addition, there would need to be a bunch more staging area than they have now.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            There are multiple real-world constraints to exponential growth. Actual production/sales growth of a new type of product replacing an existing type of product, in a disruptive tech revolution, generally follows the classic “S”-curve, which of course isn’t a simple exponential growth curve, but rather exponential growth to the point that about half, or a bit over half, of the existing product is replaced, followed by exponential decay (the exact reverse of exponential growth) as the new product approaches 100% of the market.

  6. Systembolaget says:

    What a let-down. Elon Musk estimated to have 100,000 – 200,000 Model 3 in customers’ driveways by the end of 2017. With such a slow production ramp-up it cannot happen.

    No proper testing apparently ever took place.

    Still no configurator online.

    I think we won’t get our reserved Model 3s in Europe until the end of 2018. Might as well get the Jaguar i-Pace or Audi e-tron SUV that arrive at the same time.

    1. marciemarc says:

      For less than 40.000 euro ? Forget it !

    2. Viktor says:

      Didn’t he said 100-200 000 first production year wish should be counted until June 2018?

      1. Doggydogworld says:

        No – Musk said 100-200,000 cars in the second half of 2017. This was in the 2016 Q2 conference call. You can find the transcript on Seeking Alpha.

        No one believed him then, but bashers like to call up the quote to “prove” he’s a liar.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          Just as some background, that number was via Tesla Q1 2016 earnings conference call held in May of 2016, Musk was referring to Tesla’s aspiration goals for Model 3 production in H2 2017.

          “… as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year — that’s my expectation right now.”

          Was quickly walked back pretty quickly to a target of ~100,000 produced in H2 2017 after the call. Still, I think if we see ~40,000 produced in 2017, most people will be fairly satisfied with Tesla’s follow through all things considered. Not sure anyone took the original aspirational forecast too seriously (I know we didn’t here at IEV).

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “…Musk was referring to Tesla’s aspiration goals for Model 3 production in H2 2017.”

            Thanks, Jay.

            Yeah, I always considered that goal to be aspirational rather than realistic. From what you personally have said, it seems clear you share that opinion.

            Sadly, yes, serial Tesla bashers will — already are — using that quote from Elon to “prove” that Tesla can’t reach its goal for Model 3 production.

            Actually, one has to feel sad for such trolls, grasping at straws in their increasingly desperate and futile attempts to discredit Tesla Inc.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Systembolaget said:

      “No proper testing apparently ever took place.”

      Ah yes, that explains how Tesla got all the needed regulatory approvals two weeks earlier than expected: Because they didn’t bother to properly test their cars.

      Oh, wait…

    4. floydboy says:

      Cute. The guidance was for 100,000 cars in 2017!

    5. Will Davis says:

      Lol. End of 2018? Way to completely over-exaggerate, bro.

    6. bogdan says:

      At the same time? Dream on. The 2 stand a good chance of being cancelled, because of their lack of competitiveness.

  7. gannettguy says:

    Dear Systembolaget,
    I sincerely hope you enjoy one of the other vehicles you pointed out, that you might as well be driving. We will be thinking of you,… not so much, when we get our model 3 Tesla’s.

  8. unlucky says:

    Wow, that was last minute.

    30 cars sold, even to friends, is about the same as their past releases. The rumor was only employees would get to buy them at the start. Selling them to friends would be a big step up from that (or not step down, as that never happened).

    Even the slow rates listed seem optimistic. Announcing a car’s ship date before you’ve even built the first one is bizarre. What happens if you experience problems? Are you going to just ship it broken? I hope not.

    We’ll have to see range figures before it ships, you can’t ship a car in the US without a Munroney on it. I can’t wait to see the pricing, range, performance, etc.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “The rumor was only employees would get to buy them at the start.”

      So far as I know, that’s not just a rumor; it’s fact.

    2. Christian says:

      That’s not a rumor, it’s an official statement. Employees are the 1st people that get the car and customers close to the factory.

    3. R.S says:

      I think “friends” means friends of the company. Long term investors, board members, maybe a politician or so.

      You know, the kind of people a company is friends with.

      After that it will be:
      -employees of Tesla/SpaceX
      -CA Tesla owners
      -CA reservation holders

      After that they will probably get the rest of the west coast, then the rest of the ZEV states and then the rest of the US

    4. georgeS says:

      @unlucky,

      Another significant announcement is the implication that these cars WILL have Munroney stickers.

      ““Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule.”

      1. unlucky says:

        I wouldn’t expect otherwise. As I said, you can’t sell a car without one in the US.

        I’m sure they’ve already selected 30 customers who don’t care what the Munroney says, but I do. It’ll be really interesting to see what the stickers say. Also, to see what was selected as the intro config (which surely isn’t the base config, it hasn’t been before).

        1. Tom says:

          Given that we already know they are employees, it is probable that it’s the engineers that designed and built the car plus some marketing wonks and execs. Certainly nobody who isn’t already intimately familiar with the car. These first 3 months are really the true ‘pre-production’ models. Nobody cares what the configuration is going to be for these. They’ve got until at least September to have options figured out. And then probably only a couple choices.

    5. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “Announcing a car’s ship date before you’ve even built the first one is bizarre. What happens if you experience problems? Are you going to just ship it broken? I hope not.”

      For those who haven’t been following the “story” of Tesla Motors/Tesla Inc. as long as I have, here’s a bit of history:

      When Tesla was developing the Roadster drivetrain for production, back in 2007, they tried to use a two-speed transmission. This proved problematic; the first prototype from a supplier couldn’t handle the high torque involved when shifting gears, and the transmission broke down after a few weeks of use in a test car.

      Tesla then hired a second supplier for another shot at a two-speed transmission. Same result: The prototype didn’t hold up under use more than a few weeks. Of course, by that time months had passed, and it was well into 2008.

      Rather than hold up the entire production line on the (already three times delayed) Roadster for just the problematic transmission, Tesla started delivering Roadsters with the transmission locked into 2nd gear, with a promise to customers that Tesla would replace the transmission when they had the drivetrain problem worked out. Those customers who didn’t want to pay for a “beta unit” were of course able to wait until later to take delivery.

      Now, flash forward to 2017. Given that Tesla will limit the earliest sales to only Tesla and SpaceX employees, people who have already signed an NDA with one company or the other, and who almost certainly would agree to sign a further NDA specifically about the Model 3: Given that reality, do you really think Tesla would have trouble finding at least 30 people not only willing, but eager, to take delivery of a Model 3 even if it meant they had to bring it back in to have something (or even 2 or 3 things) replaced after a few weeks?

      You call it “going to just ship it broken”? I call it “Not letting early problems hold up production and sales.”

      Thunderbirds are Go!

      1. Tom says:

        Exactly. And they aren’t going to ‘ship’ anywhere. The employees ‘purchasing’ these things will be right there at the factory quite convenient to swap out.

  9. Benz says:

    Q3 2017: 1,630(+)
    Q4 2017: 30,000(+)

    Q1 2018: 60,000(+)
    Q2 2018: 75,000(+)
    Q3 2018: 90,000(+)
    Q4 2018: 120,000(+)

    Too conservative?

    1. R.S says:

      Looks right for this year.

      Q1 2018 could be a bit lower, holidays, winter in general and the fewer days in February might slow them down a bit.

      1. Terawatt says:

        120k Model 3s in Q4? I doubt it, unless another factory is also making it by then.

        1. R.S says:

          That too. After Q1 2018 I disagree, but this year’s prediction seems right.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Hmmmm… maybe, maybe not. Tesla is projecting a maximum of 400,000 M3’s per year, which would be 100,000 per quarter, except that car sales are seasonal. So 120,000 in the final quarter of a year may be reasonable, even if it’s just from the Fremont plant. Now, I rather doubt that Tesla will be able to ramp up that fast; Murphy’s Law can’t be ignored, so expect the unexpected when it comes to production delays.

          And I seriously doubt that Tesla will get a second auto assembly plant up and running in only a year and a half from now. That takes about two years, altho they can get a jump start on that if they start with an abandoned plant, as they did with the Fremont plant.

          For the record: Tesla officially took possession of former NUMMI assembly plant on October 19, 2010; the first retail delivery of the Tesla Model S was on June 22, 2012. So, about 1-3/4 years. We could assume that a 2nd Tesla auto assembly plant could be started sooner, since they would be for the most part replicating existing production lines. But I’d guess it would still take a year and a half, even starting with an existing plant. If they have to start with ground-breaking and erecting a building, then figure on the full two years.

          On the other hand, Tesla is reportedly close to signing a deal for a manufacturing plant in China. Will it be a full auto assembly plant, like the Fremont plant? If they start now, it’s only a year and a half to 4th quarter 2018…

          Stay tuned for more breaking news on this subject! 🙂

          1. Kirk says:

            Tesla’s goal is 10k / week production rate before 1/1/19. This would be 520,000 per year.

        3. Asak says:

          I’m not sure the price is actually low enough for them to hit 120K per quarter. This are mass market, competent but no frills numbers, like what you see with say a Honda Civic.

  10. Terawatt says:

    I think Elon is doing his usual thing, trying to lower expectations in the short term while maintaining them in the sightly longer term. He will repeat this over and over, just like he has in the past.

    Elon must have spent a lot of time pondering the ramp-up. His seeming “spur of the moment” estimate of a 3x increase to next month and then a 15x the month after seems like simply a way to give themselves to more months to get started with production.

    But… what about the final reveal, the real reveal? Not happening? I guess if they didn’t fix the boot and it has no interior (hihi) and there’s not really anything new since March 2016 then there’s not very much to reveal either. But I think this landmark achievement deserves a party!

    Hard to remain patient; we won’t really start to see the impact of Model 3 until November…

  11. Martin T. says:

    Well done Tesla, It is happening and it is real. VW could learn something from this.
    Go Tesla III

    1. R.S says:

      Why specifically VW? They are one of the most positive, when it comes to EVs.

      FCA, Mazda, Subaru, Honda, Toyota, Ford…
      There are many that need to be convinced waaaaaaay more.

      Only BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, GM, Hyundai, Volvo, Nissan/Renault and VW seem even interested in EVs. If you only count legacy makers.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “Why specifically VW? They are one of the most positive, when it comes to EVs.”

        Probably because Volkswagen has a truly embarrassing history of announcing it’s putting an EV into production, and not making even the slightest effort to actually follow through. I believe the “BUDD-e” alone has been announced for production about a dozen times?

        1. Asak says:

          To be fair that’s still more than not even announcing an EV, or actively criticizing EVs like Toyota.

        2. R.S says:

          As far as I know, excluding the low volume Audi R8 e-tron, VW, or its subsidiaries didn’t miss any deadlines, yet. They are still developing their MEB and while they are late, they will be, by far, not the latest to the game.

          But in any case, they at least announce to bring more competitive EVs. The companies I mentioned aren’t even thinking about building them any time soon.

          I rather have VW announcing 10 EVs for 2020+, than FCA’s Sergio telling the world that EVs just don’t work and never will.

          I think especially VW being so pro EV nowadays, has had a big impact on Teslas stock price. It shows that Tesla is on to something. If everyone else would say EVs don’t work and never will, many people (investors) would be way more skeptical.

          And since that stock price made it possible for Tesla to acquire one billion of credit over the last 6 months, which will help building the GF and the Model 3 assembly line, I am pretty happy that VW keeps telling the world EVs are the future.

    2. Dav8or says:

      Maybe Tesla could learn from GM. Set a date, stick to that date, tell people and show people what they are getting long before it’s available. It establishes you more as a real and honest company rather than a Barnum and Bailey dog and pony show.

      Of course to the fanatics here, Elon and Tesla can do no wrong. It’s Silicon Valley after all. Nobody expects companies there to be durable, permanent or even honest. Nearly everything in the Silicon Valley is expected to be unconventional and transitory in nature. Here today and gone tomorrow when the next new amazing thing comes along.

      1. Nick says:

        Yes!

        That’s innovation and capitalism for you!

      2. RPadTV says:

        “It’s Silicon Valley after all. Nobody expects companies there to be durable, permanent or even honest.”

        As opposed to American car companies that are “durable, permanent or even honest” thanks to federal bailouts?

      3. Mark.ca says:

        Dav, if you think of GM as being honest then you really have a twisted way of thinking. I’m not even going to bother tell you why because if you don’t know that then you must be under 10 years old. And what the hell do you know about Silicon Valley anyway? Some of the worlds most dominant companies reside there.

        1. R.S says:

          Not that I’d agree with Dav, but “I won’t tell you why”?

          That actually sounds like a 10 year old…

          1. Mark.ca says:

            It goes like this…
            If you’re 10 you were born 2007. The first 5 years of life you don’t remember much and the other 5 years GM has been honest. Get it now?

      4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “Of course to the fanatics here, Elon and Tesla can do no wrong. It’s Silicon Valley after all. Nobody expects companies there to be durable, permanent or even honest.”

        Says the serial Tesla basher, representing a — thankfully — incredibly tiny minority of EV industry watchers.

        When it comes to the long-term prospects for Tesla Motors, I’m happy to be one of the “nobodies” you trolls claim don’t exist. 😀

  12. Someone out there says:

    Well finally it’s happening. I’m glad I was wrong about the model 3 being delayed at least. Now let’s see if the car is any good. I guess there won’t be any reviews of it until August then?

    1. Dav8or says:

      I wouldn’t expect any real reviews until next year at least. Tesla doesn’t care about reviews and doesn’t supply cars to the automotive media. If they want to write about a Tesla, they have to either buy one, or find somebody to let them use theirs. In the mean time, we will get loads of enthusiastic fans making glowing YouTube videos for the faithful.

      1. Get Real says:

        You mean like the time that Musk let Motor Trend test his personal Model S?

        Your bitterness about Tesla is really coloring everything you write here.

  13. Gazz says:

    How many cars will be flipped?

    1. Mister G says:

      Oh I see your point…it could be many or a few but we will never truly know LOL

    2. ATX Leaf says:

      With their low center of gravity probably not … Perhaps that is not what you meant.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Kinda hard to do this in a Tesla car, with its very low center of gravity. But I don’t think this is actually what he meant by “flipping” a car… 😉

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAfKwDiVJ-o#t=00m25s

  14. Alan says:

    Q3 1,630
    Q4 30,000

    Q1 2018 45,000
    Q2 2018 60,000
    Q3 2018 75,000
    Q4 2018 100,000

    Q1 2019 120,000

    1. James P Heartney says:

      By these numbers they don’t get through the backlog till Q1 2019. (That assumes reservists don’t cancel.)

      Could bite them in the ass if there’s not continuing 6 figure monthly demand once all the reserved cars are delivered.

      1. James P Heartney says:

        Oops, I mean quarterly demand.

  15. WadeTyhon says:

    Exciting news! I am looking forward to seeing the first Model 3 delivered this month! It will look good in the garage next to our Bolt sometime in 2018.

    I had thought a final reveal was coming before first deliveries, though. Will the final reveal be the same day as the first deliveries, maybe? Seems like a good day for a huge event and PR push!

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Certainly Tesla will create a big media event for its first delivery ceremony. Whether or not you call that the “final reveal” I guess depends on how you define “reveal”.

      Personally, I’d say that once they make their online configurator available to actual customers to look at, the car has been pretty much revealed. Not much still hidden at that point! But that’s just me.

  16. bro1999 says:

    Whelp, EPA ratings should be imminent. May appear a few days before the 1st official “delivery”, since those Monroney stickers need to be approved before then.

    1. pjwood1 says:

      Well before EPA certification should be tech specs. “<6 seconds" and a 250KW max front inverter say little. Before EPA, we should know:

      -STANDARDIZED motor power ratings, front and/or rear.
      -Maximum battery amps/duration
      -Range, "at 65mph"
      -Weight
      -Horsepower / Torque, at the wheels, over speed
      -Acceleration/Braking times

      Not too much to expect at this point.

      1. Scott Franco says:

        Yes, I look forward to real specifications. My most important is weight.

  17. Bob Nan says:

    This still makes perfect sense.
    Better for a small company like Tesla to start with a smaller volume, ensure quality and then ramp up. If any issues found can be quickly fixed.

    Go Tesla.
    I’am excited. Let the drumbeat begin.

  18. Vexar says:

    Wow, fell below my estimate of 1000 for July, 1000 for August, delivered. See here: http://insideevs.com/record-ev-sales-in-may-for-us-lead-by-the-toyota-prius-prime-again/

    Looks like Pushmi-Pullyu called me overly optimistic and was right. Elon’s not even holding onto his goal run rates for September. However, the figures of 5,000 per week by December seem to be consistent.

  19. leafowner says:

    This news makes me happy!

  20. M3-Reserved - Niro- TBD says:

    With historical distribution–all 2017 allocation to West coast probably with 30,000 anticipated.

    Let’s hope no bumps in production. Still 50/50 on our Christmas delivery I suppose being 1st day instore and West coast.

    Good news that at least production is happening and they’re taking it correctly on the ramp up instead of plowing out cars for buyers to be the Beta

  21. Lou Grinzo says:

    [graphic of an immense valve slowly being opened]

    And just yesterday, in the heart of the Finger Lakes area of NY, I saw a Tesla X. I’m still smiling about that one.

    1. ClarksonCote says:

      I’ve seen that one too, on the Thruway I think. 🙂

  22. Mister G says:

    HALLELUJAH I HAVE SEEN THE COMING OF THE LORD

    1. georgeS says:

      Coming of the Lord.
      Remember:

      “Clapton is God?”

      Now it’s :

      “Musk is God”

  23. Mister G says:

    410 ppm of CO2…can Tesla save the human race?

    1. ffbj says:

      Yes it can, and at the same time they can win valuable prizes. As in an infomercial I saw:

      “Save the human race. Win valuable prizes!”

  24. Ron M says:

    Anyway you look at it Tesla is going to produce and sell more American made Electric Vehicles which is great news.

  25. philip d says:

    So the next question we will be awaiting an answer for is how long do we have to wait after the first deliveries at the end of this month to be able to know what options are even available for the rest of us waiting and when do we actually get to configure?

  26. Murrysville EV says:

    What’s the latest estimate for reservation quantity?

    If the early reservation decoder trick was correct, I’m #61025, which I’m guessing puts me into Q1-2018.

  27. georgeS says:

    Looks like the WSJ has this story right at the top of the page.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-set-to-deliver-first-model-3-cars-july-28-1499068230

  28. needa says:

    The actual is a FAR CRY from what the resident YouTube hack on this site stated.
    “According to Teslanomics’ Ben Sullins and his “data diving” expertise, along with a hefty deal of research, Tesla will deliver about 83,000 Model 3 sedans in 2017.”

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      I predicted in the comment section of that article that they’d need to change their name from Teslanomics to Teslafantasy.

  29. Poor says:

    I guess Musk goes by the motto that: “If you have to ask the price, you cant afford it.”

  30. Scott Franco says:

    I get about the results with a 2.7 multiplier:

    Tesla model deliveries

    2.37 Month to month multiplier

    1500 September
    3555 October
    8425.35 November
    19968.0795 December
    47324.34842 January
    112158.7057 February

    33333.33333 Yearly target (400k/12)
    33448.4295 Total year shipments 2017

    Of course past the end of the year the multiplier goes past the yearly ship rate of 33k, so in January we expect the ship rate to be limited. So 33k is about Jay’s estimate of 35.k.

    1. Scott Franco says:

      Sorry should read 2.37 multiplier.

  31. Scott Franco says:

    Looks like January for me boys, at about the 50k level (based on my place in line).

  32. AlphaEdge says:

    I was checking his Twitter last night, waiting for that tweet.

    I guess the first cars can be claimed to be “Hand crafted” beta test cars. 😉

    Anyway, the biggest CONGRATULATIONS to Tesla to meeting their incredible tough goal!!!

    Now people can stop claiming, they are always late.

    Woohoo! Can’t wait for the party on the 28th!

  33. Bacardi says:

    Use SN1 as an opportunity…North Korea has 25ish days now to denuclearize their country…If they can do that Kim Jong-un can take delivery of SN1 and get a photo op with Musk…As crazy as this sounds, Kim is an ego manic, a photo with Musk may be worth it to him…

    1. scott franco says:

      From what I have read, a couple of Blonds would be more likely to do it…

  34. Kdawg says:

    I wonder when the people who reserved on March 31rst find out what their “small prize” is?

    I also wonder when the official M3 reveal will be, and if the first 30 “customers” will have a gag-order, or will they be able to talk about the car.

    1. Loboc says:

      “if the first 30 “customers” will have a gag-order”

      Pretty much all deliveries for 2017 will have an NDA. Because pretty much all deliveries will be for friends, family and employees.

      Someone will probably sell one to Ford though.

      1. unlucky says:

        Past history has shown they don’t need to have an official gag order. They get to pick who gets the first 30. They’ll just people people who won’t say anything negative. Employees, investors, good friends.

        1. Kdawg says:

          They personally might not say something, but what if their reporter friend wants to go for ride?

  35. Mark.ca says:

    Release the specs, you twitter dork!

  36. Scott says:

    Everyone has to remember that this is the first car company in 90 years to accomplish anywhere near what Tesla has done. Big manufacturers can make things happen fast. Musk had to build plants, assembly machines, stores, Supercharging network, etc., in a very short time. The Supercharging system was brilliant as that really expanded sales for the range anxiety people. GM was asked if they would help build charges for their new Bolt. GM stated that should be left to the public/government. So you can see GM is not interested promoting its COMPLIANCE car. If Musk had waited for our government to build Supercharging stations, it would still be grid locked in our dysfunctional Congress and Tesla may have had a different story today. Right now the BMW i3, Leaf, and Bolt will have to wait in line to share charging stations scattered around the US with only 1-2 stalls per station! Tesla is one stop shopping especially with its class leading wifi updates/new features downloaded every night!

    1. Bacardi says:

      While we can conclude that the Bolt is mostly a compliance vehicle, it’s not for the reasons you presented with GM not supporting charging stations…What we have learned from various datapoints, posts and surveys is that the majority of EV owners do not have ICE-free households, most have access to an ICE vehicle…Therefore when it comes to long distance roadtrips even if you had a guaranteed vacant charger, most don’t want to sit there for an hour or longer and want to take their ICE…

      It’s a compliance vehicle because someone greenlighted a sub compact hatchback segment which is the lowest MSRP segment…GM routinely stated their Equinox is the hottest segment and had to get it right, for their “eco” offering is not a EV/EREV but rather a diesel…

    2. super390 says:

      First AMERICAN company in 90 years. The barriers to entry in the US have been high for a long time. The Big 3 used to build very solid cars for excellent prices, and it was brutal for smaller companies. A study in the 1950s found that it would cost Studebaker $800 more to build a car than Chevy. You could buy a basic full-size Chevy for not much more than than $1700.

  37. georgeS says:

    So where will this put us at the 200,000 subsidy mark?

    InsideEVs predicted we would be at 156,00 at the end of this year

    http://insideevs.com/when-will-the-7500-us-credit-expire-for-the-tesla-model-3-and-everyone-else/

    I have us at 130,000 now based on Jay’s scoreboard.

    At a conservative 10,000 per quarter for the rest of this year that puts my number at 150,000 excluding M3 production.

    So tag on another 22,000 and I’m getting 172K total at the end of this year.

    That’s a little more than Jay’s number of 156K at the end of this year.

    So perhaps we may hit 200,00 a little sooner than Jays estimate of Q2 18???

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “So perhaps we may hit 200,00 a little sooner than Jays estimate of Q2 18???”

      We can hope so, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Looks like at this point Jay has the bragging rights about estimating ramp-up!

      Thunderbirds are Go!

      1. georgeS says:

        “We can hope so, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Looks like at this point Jay has the bragging rights about estimating ramp-up!”
        -PMPU

        Actually, if I have added them up right, they are Jay’s numbers. Using 22,000 for M3 production for the rest of this year and assuming 10K per quarter for MS and MX that puts us at 172 K @ this years end.

        So all Tesla has do do is 30K for QTR 1 of 2018 and they have hit the 200,000 mark in Q1 of 2018.

        Unless I’ve screwed up the numbers which is quite possible.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          It’s an odd one, because in this case, it really isn’t about the sales/demand themselves…its about the numbers.

          Just to speak to our prediction from the first of this year for Tesla. We actually also came up with an estimated number “on paper” for Tesla sale #200,000 coming in ~late February of 2018 (or well inside Q1).

          However, when thinking about it further, and given the way the credit works (specifically that the OEM gets an unlimited amount of $7,500 credits for both the quarter the 200,000th car is registered in, and the next quarter)…we figure Tesla would be ill-advised to plan to sell EV #200,000 in Q1 inside the US.

          For this reason, we went with Q2 2018. If Tesla “manages” the number, and thus diverts surplus deliveries internationally in Q1 2018, then Tesla not only gets the full $7500 for the entire 180 days period, but it would also have ~6 weeks+ to build up US inventory heading into the quarter.

          In this way Tesla could enter Q2 with 10,000+ cars ready to be registered + the full 6 months, instead of just tripping past the number in Q1, then only getting 3 months worth of full credits. This subtle action could mean the difference in netting 50,000+ additional $7,500 credits in the US.

          Nutshell: If Tesla is smart/aware (and we think they are), they will “manage” the business to NOT register EV #200,000 in Q1 2018. We have already noted that Tesla’s AWD option/tooling is expected to come online at the end of 2017/early 2018 – which makes a lot of sense with the US credit timing in mind. Past the tooling, one expects they will divert production away from the US in Q1, then “flip on the switch” and almost completely forsake international deliveries for the Model 3 between April 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2018.

          So if you wanted a “original spec”/optioned Tesla and you don’t live in the US, I’d say one has a real good shot at seeing that in Q1/early Q2 (as it takes ~8 weeks to get to Europe/Asia)…but if you are waiting for “el cheapo” or the AWD, realistically, its probably going to be near the end of 2018/early 2019 for any real volume on those (provided of course Tesla has enough US reservists/live retail demand in its queue to keep busy in Q2/Q3 2018).

          1. Jean-François Morissette says:

            Sometimes Jay your little analysis in the discussion are even more interesting than the main articles. Thanks for taking the time to comment and complement the different stories!

            1. Jay Cole says:

              Appreciate that JFM,

              Truthfully, I would much rather be able to write deeper articles about the business of EVs, random insider info, and the mechanics of what is happening behind the scenes.

              There is lots of little tidbits out there that are perhaps not popular to the widest/casual demo, but would be interesting to the daily, more hardcore reader.

              The unfortunate reality is that InsideEVs has become a very large operation, with a large readership; and while that is “good” (we can do more, cover more, etc), for myself personally (as Editor-in-Chief) the behind the scenes action, the unseen “dance” if you will, that keeps the IEV wheels moving as I would like them to, has gone from only taking 30 minutes of my day (in ~2012), to easily 5-6 hours now; which leaves less and less time and energy to actually pen more colorful/in depth pieces.

              So now if I have a moment or two, I just try to participate in the discussion a bit if I feel I have something I can add.

  38. GM Bolt says:

    With such low numbers, the Model 3 is a compliance vehicle.
    Plus Panasonic can’t make enough batteries.

    1. Mark.ca says:

      M3 is nothing yet but the Bolt sure is a compliance car.

  39. Get Real says:

    Dream on you too cowardly to post under your real username troll.

  40. Nix says:

    The numbers are hard to project, because “production” and “delivery” numbers keep getting used as if they are interchangeable, while in reality deliveries can be weeks behind production.

    If 4000 cars are built in Sept, but production is backloaded into the last weeks, then only a fraction of the cars built will be delivered.

    The same goes for Dec. If they build 20K cars in December, likely only around half will actually be delivered by year end.

    It makes it about as hard to figure out as when battery price numbers are thrown around, without specifying whether it is pack or cell price.

    Tesla will likely be publishing an actual guidance number in a little over a month. I’m personally not even going to try and wade through the production vs. delivery stuff. Easier for me to just wait for the official guidance. It is just too messy at this point to try and sort through it all for it to be worth my effort.

    It will definitely be interesting to see Tesla’s guidance on numbers with their Q2 report.

  41. mxs says:

    Good to see Tesla actually launching production in 2017. I always thought if they manage that it would be a great surprise to others.

    Step 1 sort of completed, now I want to see step 2 …. reliability of the produced cars and ability of Tesla to deal with issues/repairs on much larger scale that thy ever needed before (not that I wish them high repair rate, but it would be silly not to expect that with a brand new car and production line …)

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