Tesla Model 3 Estimated Delivery Timeline Pushed Back to 2-4 Months

Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion


Opening the Model 3 ordering books to anyone in the U.S. has probably contributed to a bit of a backlog.

It was only a week ago today that we reported Tesla Model 3 delivery windows were being pushed up. Tesla had just hit an all time high in production with over 10,000 Model 3’s in transit. The U.S. EV Tax Credit was officially safe through December. And Model 3 ordering was recently opened up to anyone in the U.S. interested in the long range models. Had the floodgates opened? While the Dual Motor Model 3 was still being listed with a 2-4 month delivery timeline, the Rear Wheel Drive and Performance models were given quicker turnarounds of 1-3 months.

Unfortunately for buyers, delivery estimates on teslamotors.com are back to 2-4 months for RWD, AWD and P models. InsideEVs reader CCIE alerted us to the change Wednesday morning:

I’ve been looking at Model 3 ordering and noticed late last night that all models now show availability in 2-4 months. Earlier yesterday the RWD and P-AWD models showed 1-3 months.

Model 3 Delivery Estimates Increase

Buyers of the Model 3 have probably realized by now that the estimates given on teslamotors.com should be taken with a healthy bit of skepticism. It is not uncommon to place an order and have a delivery scheduled in under 2 weeks. It is also not unusual to place an order and be waiting several weeks past the expected delivery estimate.

However, from this change we can infer that orders have increased on the RWD and Performance models. Many buyers are hoping to take delivery by the end of the year and decided to take the plunge as soon as they were able. We also have not seen production levels in July quite reach the highs from the end of Q2. So demand continues to far outweigh supply and the short range model has still yet to launch.

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88 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Estimated Delivery Timeline Pushed Back to 2-4 Months"

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Well i guess with the base model pushed to probably next year some realized that you either wait and get it for $40k with the premium package or get the long range now for $41.5 after full fed credit. Man, this is a thought one!…not!

SR+premium in 1H19 will get 3750 credit, so it’s 36,250 vs. 41,500.

But you’re getting better value with LR. You’re getting LR option that’s normally $9K more for only about $5K more.

…. ****if**** you have the additional $5k to spare, after already being squeezed out to $9k above your original $27.5k (or less in many states) budget.

($9k assumes as the commenter above shrewdly guessed, Elon rolls out a $40k base-plus trim first before the true base trim)

It’s actually $14K more, not $9K, since you need PUP upgrade, so pre-subsidy is $49K ($41.5K post tax credit, $39K with CA rebate). If you were counting on any amount of tax credit for base model, that isn’t likely. Just look at Tesla’s track record of always being late. That’s why one should compare $35K (haha!) to $42K.

$5K for 100+ miles additional range and sub 5 second 0-60 is well worth the cost. And $2K for PUP upgrade that’s normally $5K is also a very good deal. Biggest complaint is that foo_ing Tesla announced this _after_ I got the Bolt.

In spite of all the delays, I think it’s still a pretty safe bet that early reservation holders will get partial tax credit on the base model… Without a reservation though it doesn’t seem likely indeed.

For a larger battery that cost about $1k more.

Try again.

Elon said that he hopes to bring cell cost down below $100/kWh later this year, which means currently it’s more than that. And we’re talking about a difference of 20-25 kWh for the larger pack, so that’s a minimum of $2000-2500 just for the cells. Pack level costs will be something like 20-30% higher than cell costs, so for Tesla the total difference in cost (not price, but cost) between the smaller and larger packs is likely something in the neighborhood of $2400-3250.

Yes, for H1 but i would bet that they would give priority to LR production wise and not many SR will be delivered…. as they should. It comes down to bird in hand or fast wild chicken.

Yup. That’s what I’ve been saying. But the lead time is cutting it really close to end of the year, some who order when it was shorter was cutting it close. This new lead time might make some to go past Dec. 31 and not get the full tax credit, because Tesla is always late.

The big question is when will they release the non-PUP interior in the Model 3 LR? Tesla has already added on interior option (white). They have also unbundled the wheel/brake package out of “P”. So interior changes and unbundling are on the table already.

Will Tesla to make the PUP optional and start building Model 3 LR non-PUP’s this summer ahead of SR in 6-9 months?

Then it is $35,500 after rebate for non-PUP Model 3 LR vs. an SR at half rebate. I think if Tesla offers that option by the end of summer, it will be a keyboard race to see who can finalize their orders fast enough to get one before New Year’s Eve.

Supposedly the original reservation order should still play a role when placing orders for options not available before — so I’m not sure racing to place the order would actually matter…

True, it might just be a race between you and the folks in line with you to put down the reservation in the first place…..

At the end of the day, the only folks who care about these timelines are folks waiting/hoping for Tesla’s failure. The fact is that Tesla makes a good product that people want. Their popularity is what causes a backup- there’s more people that want the product than the amount of the product. I’m no apologist, I’m simply the messenger. And this fact has NOTHING to do with Elon’s tweets, delays in manufacturing, Jim Chanos doom-and-gloom about timelines, tent-structures, the price of tea in China, etc.

Only Tesla Doomers care about delivery timelines? Really? Strongly disagree. In general, a wait time of months for a car is going to matter a lot to at least some customers, and throwing in the tax incentive complication makes it all the more interesting.

Timelines matters if you’re currently leasing a car or hope to take advantage of the full tax credit.

WRONG! Timelines only mattter to TSLA-hating FUD spreaders. Didn’t you read what John posted?? /sarcasm

Thank you for bringing balance to this site. You’ve changed my mind, thanks.

You’re very welcome.

While I agree that the Tesla Death Cult tends to read too much into minor delivery schedule changes, I think it’s safe to say that other people care about delivery timelines, too…

Tesla will never die. The brand is too valuable. Worst case, it is reconstituted after bankruptcy.

How much is that “Tesla Tea” in China, after all?

We already know how much the “Texas Tea (that is)” costs here in the US!
Props to The Beverly Hillbillies, and of course, Mr. Drysdale!

Tesla makes a good product because they sell it at a loss, and is too difficult to manufacture.

It’s easy to create demand for something which is too good to be true.

#1 on Zachary Shahan’s list of Big Lies from the Tesla Death Cult (our term, not his).

1. Tesla’s finances — investing vs. burning: As we’ve tried to explain meticulously in previous articles, there’s a difference between “burning cash” and investing cash into rapid, transformative growth. Tesla isn’t “burning cash” with nothing to show for it. It has gone from producing zero cars to an annualized production rate of approximately 300,000 in the course of a decade. Each quarter shows dramatically more production and deliveries than the quarter a year before. Last July, Tesla delivered 30 Model 3’s. This July, it may end up delivering 20,000 or so. Is that “burning cash” or is that ramping up production of a mass market car?

I appreciate Zachary Shahan taking the time to list and debunk the most common Big Lies from the Tesla Death Cult.


This is a race to $7500 now. I have a family member who is thinking about going ahead with a current model instead of waiting for the $35000 model. Why wait just to lose the incentive?

+7500! With Tesla being always late, I have my doubts if SR will qualify for any tax credit. Get it now is best value for the buck.

Tough pill to swallow for those people that thought waiting in line for hours on 31 March 2016 would allow them to snag a $35k Model 3 for potentially $27.5k (after taking the $7,500 fed tax credit). Illusions of Grandeur. Now they have to decide if they can stretch for a $49k ($41.5k after $7,500 credit) LR 3.
Or they may just decide the hell with it and lease a Bolt or Leaf for 3 years and hope Tesla has their sh!t together by the time that lease ends.

I am confused as to why they thought this. Elon always stated the Model 3 would start at $35k, he was very specific never to mention tax credits in the price and he also stated early on better equipped models would ship first. I think the problem was bloggers with the Tesla blinders on spouting that the Model 3 would be $27,500, etc. Elon could of course emphasized this back in the day.

The Model 3 LR RWD looks to be an incredible deal. Real EPA range of 349 miles with aero wheels due to requested derating of figure to make AWD models look better and incredibly fastcharging at least to 60% or even 80% charge. It is really the first long distance EV I could see myself driving (even much better than any of the Model S cars). Expected 270 mile range at 80 mph is amazing. First EV you won’t lose much timetraveling across country with properly timed stops. Bolt EV is 44k MSRP up front for model I would want. Like my i3 Rex, the Bolt EV will make a great value used car.

I Think You Are Choosing to Be Confused
You are on EV sites frequently and to project your Tesla awareness onto the masses who don’t frequent Tesla focused blogs is not realistic. Elon purposely used the $35K headline and sold the notion ‘why buy a Leaf for $35K’ when you can buy a Tesla instead’.

Problem: Three years forward, there is no $35K Tesla to be had.

Tesla Unveils Model 3 – Event 2016
@17:02 Deliveries begin at the end of next year (no asterisk provided)
@17:21 $35,000 displayed prominently behind him and states even the base car is very well equipped

Why would those who waited in line (vehicle unseen) and reserved with the intent of buying the base configuration not expect to use the $7,500 tax credit?

When a base Model S was going for $60K+ at the time, he swept up tons of folks looking for entry into Tesla at 50% of the going price. I hope each and every person who reserved and specified the $35K car is able to buy the base car with zero up-sell.

If Tesla had advertised a “$49k Model 3” at the unveil, I bet you there would have been less reservations than what they got unveiling it as the $35k Model 3. Elon knew exactly what he was doing.

You make the assumption that you will get a $7,500 tax credit. I don’t see him talking anywhere there about a $7,500 credit. With Elon, look at what he leaves out. The $35,000 is accurate and what people will pay. Those that reserved early will get some credit, those that did not likely won’t get any (although it is possible they still will get some). When he mentions deliveries he did have an asterisk. He was fairly confident they would start in 2017… There was no certainty there.

Bottom line is the $7,500 credit will help move higher margin cars, which is critical for Tesla right now. People stretching to get a $35,000 car (to where they can buy it with a credit but not without) are probably not even eligible for the credit anyway. Who knows, maybe he delivers early with the $35k car and a few get the higher credit.

One more thing, my hunch is the 220 mile range model is not derated as much, so the real difference might be larger than 90 miles. I think the AWD is only available with LR battery? If so, it would make sense to not derate the 220 mile range, so really the difference is more like 110 or 120 miles difference between the two.

” I think the AWD is only available with LR battery? ”

Not according to my option selection. As far as that page shows, SR with Dual motor is still available. Of course they can remove that option when they actually work on that option.

I believe all the model 3 s are software downrated to 310mile range to prevent oitshining the Model S & X premium line until. they can start producing with the new batteries.

Model 3 Battery packs are 30% larger volume than Model S, and use larger cells, so higher power density, less interstitial void volume, so must have a software cap like the Model 60S did vs the model 70S. I suspect near a 50% range increase on existing Model 3’s 8s in the future, so >450mile range for LR after the S & X longer range model, new battery roll out.

“Elon purposely used the $35K headline and sold the notion ‘why buy a Leaf for $35K’ when you can buy a Tesla instead’.

“Problem: Three years forward, there is no $35K Tesla to be had.”

Curses! You have revealed to the world Elon’s deep dark secret: That he is in reality Dr. Evil!
😆 😆 😆

The overwhelming number of Model 3 reservations took everyone by surprise, even Tesla. Elon had no idea that there would be anywhere near 455,000 reservations for the Model 3, and thus no idea of how long it would take for Tesla to work its way down the reservation list to the $35k base model.

You write as if Elon could foresee the future in detail, and executed an evil Super-villan Master Plan to frustrate the hopes of hundreds of thousands of would-be Model 3 buyers.


349 miles? No way.

Recent You Tube (Been Sullins) showed zero range left after 268 miles. Not aero wheels, but still.

And here on insideevs is a video of a Model 3 being hypermiled for 606 miles. Other drivers report getting well into the 300’s without the extreme hypermiling and still having range left.

What is your point? That like ICE cars and any EV, your mileage may vary?

“I am confused as to why they thought this. Elon always stated the Model 3 would start at $35k…”

Yes, but that didn’t stop many ill-informed reporters from writing about the price of a $35k Model S as if buyers would get the full tax credit.

As you say, Tesla spokesmen never quoted a price for the Model 3 that had the tax credit subtracted out.

Elon onew that the the tax credit was likely to be gone, before the base model came out. It made sense that he wouldn’t advertise the $27.5k cost.

Speaking of rebate there was talk of congress allowing intant rebates, and on unlimited sales numbers, but cap the deadline at 2022 or 2023. Any update on that? The intent is to further incentivise EV buildout, as one of the biggest suppliers of the most motivating EV was going to drop order rate when $10k 8ncentive is lost.

“I have a family member who is thinking about going ahead with a current model instead of waiting for the $35000 model. Why wait just to lose the incentive?”

I believe this is exactly Tesla’s sales strategy for U.S. customers. Tesla hopes they will opt for a higher priced version of the Model 3 sooner, rather than wait for a less expensive version and lose out on part or all of the tax credit.

Because, if you haven’t already ordered, the incentive already got cut in half or more

A must watch for anyone that has any interest in EVs/Tesla.

Fairly balanced video – The noise level has gotten completely out of hand…

Not sure why YOU are posting this… when was the last time you saw the middle?
I agree with her however, the entire ev industry is being intentionally dragged into this fight.

Huh? I don’t see her saying anything about the entire EV industry being intentionally dragged into this…

Indeed. Let’s see you taking it to heart 😛

As soon as the TSLA-heads change, so will I. 😛

By any chance, are you suggesting that the proverbial “rolling heads” scenario, become an option, on the long range upcoming Tesla “Plan”? 🤡

I see, so you have no personal responsibility for your own behavior? Thanks for making that clear.

Talking about taking personal responsibility, when are you going to pay your $100 bet you made on Oct. 19th of last year?

What is this bet you speak of?

Terms of your bet on Oct. 19th 2018 (posts condensed to exclude your mindless taunting, too long to fit in a single post):

“Who wants to wager that Model 3 production will outnumber Bolt production? Anyone want to put money where their mouth is still?….$100 bet for anyone that thinks Model 3 sales in the US will be greater than Bolt sales….We can compare similar time frames. I’m a flexible guy!”

Time frame I took your bet: “Bolt will outsell the Model 3 over the first year.”

How do you want to send that $100?

Until you link the article and my comment, it is all #fakenews.

If I link it, will you pay?

Link it so I can review exactly what I said.

No linky linky, which means it was just more #fakenews from Nix.

As expected, you entirely missed the point of the video. She is calling out *both* extremes — your trolling is PART OF THE PROBLEM, not part of the solution.

Via kid submarine.

Whoops, reply fail.
And by “Trolling” you must mean posting of inconvenient facts the TSLA diehards can’t swallow.

Elon's Mini Submarine

From the Transport Evolved YouTube video:

Nikki: “On the flip side we’ve got Tesla supporters. Most are sane, objective people. . . . But then there’s a small and much, much more vocal minority of uber-fanboys, who will spare no trick as to those who suggest Tesla isn’t doing well or isn’t a awesome car company. Those fanboys, many of whom I should note don’t even own a Tesla or a car, will descend on anyone who even dares to question Tesla or even imply that Tesla has made a mistake or there is something that Tesla needs to work on. And they protest vociferously about the person or company in question . . .”

Nikki hit the nail on the head. She has just described to a tee InsideEVs resident Tesla uber-fanboy Pushmi-Pullyu, who not only doesn’t even own a Tesla or a car, but doesn’t even drive. Pushing-Pullyu launches incessant, non-stop personal attacks and engages in name calling against ANYONE who even mildly criticizes Tesla. A while back, Pushmi-Pullyu even called either Steven or Eric Loveday (I forget which one) a FUDster when one of them published an article mildly critical of Tesla on InsideEVs. ☹️

Lol PP’s name flashed in my mind as soon as I heard her say that part.

I’m famous! (Okay… infamous.)

@ Elon’s Mini Submarine,

You sure surfaced all of a sudden, out of the blue abyss, Mariana Trench possibly?

From which Transport EVolved depths, did you suddenly emerge?

By the way, St. Elon does have a Lotus Elise car movie prop submarine conversion (a design that can’t actually convert from a car, to a working real world functioning sub).

Lotus Esprit. Elise is what the Roadster was based on.

My bad, but it was a cool movie prop auto-sub, that has in the movie, a dog (Brittany Spaniel) running away scared from the vehicle, as it drives out of the water, and up onto the sandy U.K. “Spy Who Loved Me” beach.

Thanks for the refresher course, from the Lotus Position!

Yelp she very honest and I love her live feeds and chats

I don’t know what happened in the past — but over the last several weeks, I have only seen him attack people who are obviously trolling, not people who “mildly criticize” Tesla.

You see, I immediately thought of Nix but I digress.

That is also a correct answer.
Only real difference between the 2 is Nix may actually own a Tesla and doesn’t use exclamations. Otherwise 2 peas in the TSLA pod.

Oh no, NIx is much better informed than I am. But he doesn’t use emoticons, so that makes my comments distinctly better. 😉

Well, to give credit to Nix, he does address with facts and knowledge but with a heavy dosage of personal attacks (sometimes well deserved, sometime not). If he would just remove the personal attacks, he would have been far more pleasant. Nix is also a fan of all EVs in general. He loves Tesla more than others, but he is at least a supporter of all PEVs. So, I don’t really mind Nix and he does offer some very helpful information most of the time.

PP on the other hand, delivers heavy personal attacks and most of the time have little facts or knowledge to back it up. He is often a Tesla fan boy who actually attacks other EVs sometimes…

So, there is actually a big difference between the two.

“but with a heavy dosage of personal attacks (sometimes well deserved, sometime not). If he would just remove the personal attacks, he would have been far more pleasant.”

That is an honest and fair critique of my posts. I will take that advice to heart, and will try to cut back the insults down to just those who are very clearly “well deserved” as you say.

However, I don’t intend to be pleasant back to those who are quite clearly only here on Insideev’s to intentionally make this site a very, very unpleasant place.

“PP on the other hand, delivers heavy personal attacks and most of the time have little facts or knowledge to back it up.”

Seriously? I probably back up my claims with more facts and citations than anyone here except Nix.

You might try doing that sometime yourself, MMM. As it is, you’re in no danger of challenging my reputation for facts or accuracy.

The Tesla Death Cult keeps whining about people being fans of Tesla who don’t actually own a Tesla, as if somehow that was a prerequisite.

Do they have the same attitude towards sports fans who don’t actively play the sport they follow? If someone was a baseball player for decades but had to retire due to an injury, would they say such a person had no right to express their opinion of current games?

Of course they would not be such an a@@hole on that subject! Yet in the Bizarro mindset of Tesla Death Cultists, it’s somehow “okay” to castigate someone like me, who has had to give up after decades of driving, starting when I was 14.

I dare say that I have more years of driving experience than some of those saying I have no right to express my opinion!

Or, to put it more succinctly: Bite me!

And we can clearly see PP will not heed any of the advice given in the video I linked above.
And I retract my statement about Nix and PP being the same. Nix seems to have some very very very slight redeeming qualities. Gross, almost threw up in my mouth a little typing that last line.

Can´t wait to see the Nurburgring lap time of the Tesla Model 3 Performance!
If it´s better than the BMW M3 we will no longer have to listen to those that say that the Tesla’s are only good in straight line!

I’m still a bit surprised they opened up the LR-PUP reservations to anyone in the US versus shipping them overseas to original reservation holders. Just my 2 cents….

Still in love with mine tho!

There are various issues with that. For one, the vehicle has to be homologised to any new market; so it needs a considerable lead time. Also, the long shipping times mean a major delay in revenue coming in, which wouldn’t be good for the current focus on positive cash flow. Furthermore, building up the support infrastructure for the much larger fleet (service, supercharging, delivery centres etc.) takes both time and money. And last but not least, with the expiring tax credit, US deliveries are now more urgent than anywhere else.

The upcoming expiration of the US $7.5k tax credit, has to definitely be the biggest constraining fence around Tesla, in at least the next 6 months, keeping their exports to a token % of 2018 annual production.

Deliveries in N.A. need to be fulfilled first, before the European Tesla onslaught!

I expect there will be an increase in actual Model 3 orders through 2018 as people race to the gates to get the $7,500 US federal tax credit. One can reasonably ask will orders slow dramatically and the tax credit lessens in Q1/Q2 2019 as production Model 3 volumes ramp higher?

I think there is a massive number of reservations for the base car otherwise Tesla would have proclaimed ‘the majority of the reservations are for our $50K and higher configs’

Bracing for the best

Why would Tesla out of nowhere proclaim highly proprietary forward-looking inside sales information? Do you have any examples of any other car company handing out this sort of forward-looking sales information?

Proprietary data like that is reported as historic data in SEC filings after quarters have closed, if they are ever disclosed at all.

Tesla announced long ago that they would be pivoting to global sales in 2019. The flood of reservations and orders from overseas will keep the Model 3 at full production capacity regardless of what lawmakers eventually do with the Fed. tax incentive. The only question at hand is how many units will Tesla be able to produce in any given quarter in 2019, because demand is not an issue in 2019. Claiming orders will fall is FUD.

1) Reservations are not Sales
2) Tesla disclosed the reservations received – and has disclosed cancellations
3) Your SEC filing comments make zero sense – sorry – reservations are not sales
4) Elon stated at current production volumes Tesla would could not make a profit producing the $35K car. Do you know how many reservations from overseas are for the non-base Model 3?
5) There have been ZERO orders for the Model 3 from overseas
6) When states / governments have ended tax credits / rebates on EVs, sales have fallen (Illinois, Georgia, etc.). This is not FUD be quantifiable information. The question is pertinent as it relates to Tesla in 2019.

They have zero overseas orders for the Model 3 only because they haven’t allowed anybody to finalize their reservations into orders.

Any claim of Tesla seeing a drop in orders when they finally open up international orders is FUD. Just stop.

Reservations not being sales is yet another reason why Tesla wouldn’t just go blathering about the details of reservations. They would risk having actual orders not match reservations and have stupid people claim Tesla were “lying”. In fact I’m sure you already have an attack you have ready to cut and paste into multiple stories if such a thing ever happened… LOL!

To the extend that reservations reflect their sales PIPELINE is proprietary sales information. Everything I said still applies. Go watch Glengarry Glen Ross if you don’t understand sales.

“6) When states / governments have ended tax credits / rebates on EVs, sales have fallen (Illinois, Georgia, etc.). This is not FUD…”

You’re using irrelevant facts to support your FUD insinuations here.

Quoting from Zachary Shahan’s handy-dandy list of the most common Big Lies from Tesla Death Cultists (my term, not his):

3. Tesla vehicle demand: If scare tactics about Tesla’s finances don’t work for you, people trying to twist the narrative in favor of Big Oil or Big Auto instead of Tesla have another favorite up their sleeve — a claim that comes around semi-regularly that demand for Tesla vehicles is dropping. We saw this with the Model S even while demand was rising. We saw this with the Model X even while demand was rising. And we see this now with the Model 3, despite claims from Tesla that it has over 400,000 reservations for the Model 3 and more coming in every day.


“the majority of the reservations are for our $50K and higher configs”

Reservations aren’t for a specific config, only orders. Tesla does have some survey info, but its not firm.

Can you ever believe Elon Musk? I don’t think so. Four months from now a new excuse will popup. If any other auto maker did this continuously , they’d be making headlines on the major network everyday.

You can believe whenever he promises a deadline, it’s a deadline that will be busted.

You mean the wait has gone from 16 months to 18-20 months.