Tesla Model 3 Depositors Seem Willing To Wait Out Delays

4 days ago by Steven Loveday 79

Tesla Model 3

Tesla CEO Elon Musk at the Model 3 handover event.

Even if a handful of Tesla Model 3 reservation holders cancel, the automaker still has hundreds of thousands of orders to fill, and it appears few are even considering canceling.

Bloomberg News asked 20 Model 3 reservation holders if they intend to cancel, and at this point, not a single one is doing so. Two of the 20 have considered it, but are still holding out. The publication interviewed dual reservation holder, Brian Lawley, who was one of the first in line to deposit money for two Model 3s some 20 months ago. Lawley shared:

“I just want Tesla to get the Model 3 right, even if it takes them an extra six months. I view any delays as a good thing to make sure that the quality is excellent.”

Tesla Model 3

Inside the Tesla Model 3

Many people uphold an incredible passion and continued understanding toward the brand despite its shortfalls and battles with timeliness. People are willing to support Tesla even if it’s not going very well at the moment. Edmunds analyst Jessica Caldwell said in an email:

“It seems to me that people would be willing to wait since they were never given a firm date when they would take delivery in the first place. The long wait seems to be building anticipation.”

Romit Shah, an analyst at Nomura, believes that people will continue to love Tesla and its products. In fact, his note to clients sustains Nomura’s $500 price target, which is the highest on Wall Street. He added:

“We believe there is a real passion for the brand. It is bigger than loyalty because much of the enthusiasm comes from people who have never owned a Tesla. The only comparable we see is the iPhone.”

Reservation holders weren’t really aware of Model 3 production issues for months following the handover event in July. The successful event and the timeliness of initial Model 3 production gave people a false sense of security that perhaps the automaker would be on target this time. However, those that are aware of Tesla’s past would have been wise to assume (and they probably did) that production might not go as planned. However, they placed a reservation anyway.

Tesla

The Tesla Model X was delayed and had its fair share of problems, yet 500,000 people flocked to reserve a Tesla Model 3.

Now, it’s become abundantly clear that Model 3 production is way behind. Tesla is saying that it could be March before it hits the 5,000-a-week mark that it guided for December. Some reservation holders have only seen their estimated date moved back about a month, while others have been delayed three months. Based on Tesla’s current situation, these delays are likely not a true indication of how far behind some people’s cars may be.

The recent announcement that House Republicans intend to immediately eliminate the federal EV tax credit may complicate the matter even further. However, even if the rebate isn’t repealed, Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles sold in the U.S. soon enough (which harkens the wind-down of the $7,500 crdit 91-180 days later). If delays continue, a majority of those tax credits will go to Model S and X buyers, rather than Model 3 buyers. Nonetheless, Baird analyst Ben Kallo insists:

“Even if 10 percent cancel because of delays and 10 percent cancel because of tax credits, Tesla has hundreds of thousands of reservations. And very few people have actually seen, much less ridden, in the car yet.”

Some of the Model 3 reservation holders interviewed by Bloomberg seem to be okay with not getting the credit. New York attorney, David Tayar, said:

“It’s not like I would be getting a tax credit if I bought an ICE.”

Nissan LEAF owner and Uber driver had really hoped for the credit. He made a point of getting in line overnight to assure an early reservation. He shared:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Despite numerous issues over the years, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has secured a notable fan base and people believe in him. They want Tesla to succeed and they want to be a part of it.

“I wanted to be early in line to get that tax credit.

If it goes away, I’ll just have to adjust my budget and pay. I’m not happy about the delays, but I’m willing to wait. We know that Tesla has made a few hundred Model 3s, so we know that it is real, and we know that more are coming.”

It continues to appear that some people are so enamored with Tesla and CEO Elon Musk that it honestly doesn’t matter what the company does, they will continue their support. Tesla fans don’t see the automaker in the same way that they see legacy OEMs, and they don’t hold Tesla to the same standards. While this may not be fair in some people’s eyes, there’s an attitude that Tesla is a new automaker, a startup, something different, and its path is a difficult one, so Tesla should be cut some slack.

What do you think? Have you kept your reservation? Let us know in the comment section.

Source: Bloomberg

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79 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Depositors Seem Willing To Wait Out Delays"

  1. Mark.ca says:

    20 people? What’s the margin of error on that? 50%.

    1. Terawatt says:

      Where did you learn statistics..? If the 20 are representative, the error is tiny!

      The 95% confidence interval for sample size 20 from a population of 500 000 with 100% responding the same is just 4. Hence, you can be 95% confident that no fewer than 96% of the entire population would have responded “keep” if you asked them all.

      https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

      1. Terawatt says:

        That said, you would probably be right to question if their sample was actually representative! But the sample size itself is fine for an estimate like this.

        1. Dav8or says:

          I’m not sure about that. It sounds like they interviewed the folks at the top of the list. I’m not sure they interviewed anyone from the end, or even the middle of the list.

          The people at the top of the list are the most dedicated Tesla fans and also the most likely of the group to get the tax credit. These are fans that would have put the deposit down even before the reveal. These are buyers where only Tesla will do. People later on down the list are likely not as dedicated.

          1. L'amata says:

            I think people wanna give Tesla a Chance ,because ,Tesla is trying to do something GOOD Unlike traditional Auto maker that care only about Profit & couldn’t care Less about the well being of People or the Planet that we all live on..BIG AUTO ICE MAKERS , JUST DON’T GET IT! They’re chopping 0ff their noses to save their face., by carrying on business as usual..

            1. I know 2 coworkers that reserved. Then later cancelled a Model 3: one reserved on Roll Out Day, but cancelled some 6-8 months later, said he needed the money for a Transmission Job; the other reserved about 6 months ago, and cancelled about 1.5 months ago, said he couldn’t wait, needed a car sooner, bought another ICE!

              I also have a coworker with a Model S: 90D, his second one! I don’t think he cancelled as of yet!

              Another coworker only reserved about 4 months back, and is still anxiously awaiting for ‘Late 2018’ to come!

              I am another worker there that is akso awaiting a date of ‘Late2018’, even though I reserved on Mornin of March 31st, 2016 @ 09;36 AM, #66 at Toronto, Lawrence Store!

              So, of us 5, 2 have cancelled: So dies that mean I have any level of accuracy predicting that 40% will cancel their model 3? As in 200,000 out of 500,000? Since we already knew that 66,000 cancelled when Elon announced, that Net of those Cancellat3, there were 455,000 Reservations, and they were coming in at a rate of some 1,800 a day, inspite of their ‘Anti Selling’ efforts!

              Or you could add my 5 samples to those 20, and out of 25, just 2 cancelled, or 8%!

              8% of 500,000 is about 40,000, so pretty close to what Elon Reported!

              So, long term, it would seem that about 8%-10% Cancellation, would be Typical. That means, of the 9,000 per week coming in, give or take, 700-900 will ultimately cancel!

              Or Not!

              Statistically speaking, numbers can be made to say most anything, when guesses, sample size, geography, and other matters, are not accounted for! (Like Tax Rebates, HUD, Towing (of the Single Motor Models), Price of Options, Delivery Delays, local Politics, Friends choices, etc! Plus, ones personal Financial Needs, Patience, and Resolve!

              So, there is only the end result of how many ship by December 31st, 2018, that counts, now! And if Canada will be shipping before, or along with, Europe Left hand Drive Models! (Since we seem to be listed under “International” for Tesla’s Delivery Timetable!

              1. Dave K says:

                I think few will cancel, but if they do it just moves me up the list! I think L’amata has it right, reservations send a message to OEMs that we are not going to take their ICE crap any more!

              2. Null says:

                Your data says more about your sample then it does about the population of reservation holder.

                You hopelessly biased the sample by how you selected them.

            2. Mykl says:

              Soo true! Tesla’s mission isn’t from greed unlike the traditional automakers! They need electric 4wd and commercial vehicles so i can buy one. I would happily pay much more for the same car from Tesla then another manufacturer.Might have to build a ute myself out of Tesla parts.

          2. Paul Smith says:

            ” It sounds like they interviewed the folks at the top of the list.” What do you base that assumption on?

          3. Mister G says:

            I reserved 3 days after reveal date so I might be in the middle of the list and I’m will wait until the fat lady sings LOL

            1. Evan says:

              I reserved day 1 – before the reveal but didn’t wait in the early morning line. I plan on keeping my reservation but eventually test driving both the 3 and the S before making the final decision.

              I have another friend at work who reserved a 3 and cancelled it recently and bought the S.

              I have a second friend who reserved the 3 in August 2016. He’s very excited for his late 2018 delivery

              1. Mister G says:

                Evan if you have the income for an S why wait…in my case I have to wait for the 3 because I don’t have the income for an S.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Terawatt said:

          “…the sample size itself is fine for an estimate like this.”

          Wow! Just wow. The depth of ignorance on display here, on the subject of statistics, is breathtaking. Both by you and by the Bloomberg News reporter(s).

          The sample size was so small that it lead one or more Bloomberg News reporters to conclude that there would be at most only “a handful” of reservation cancellations. That alone is sufficient to prove the sample size is too small!

          But hey, Terawatt, you’re in good company. Most people are quite ignorant about statistics. I don’t know that much about the subject myself, but at least I know enough to appreciate how little I do know.

          1. Then, you might appreciate my comment above, discussing the 2 cancellations by coworkers! Typo’s and all!

      2. bro1999 says:

        A sample size of 20 for a population of 500,000 is NOWHERE near enough to draw any valid conclusions about the population. You would need 384 respondents to have a 95% confidence level with a 5% margin of error.

        And even if you did get 384 respondents, you would need to account for the various types of sampling bias.

        I am currently enrolled in a Predictive Analytics Master of Science program at Northwestern University, in case you want to question my background on the subject at hand.

        1. CDAVIS says:

          @bro1999 said: “I am currently enrolled in a Predictive Analytics Master of Science program at Northwestern University, in case you want to question my background on the subject at hand.”
          ———

          That’s good… hopefully the class will somehow teach you to be more fact-base critical with your own general anti-Tesla rant postings… then again “Predictive Analytics” applied to that proposition would suggest not.

          1. Stimpy says:

            “hopefully the class will somehow teach you to be more fact-base critical with your own general anti-Tesla rant postings”

            Funny AND true!

        2. SparkEV says:

          Keys to his arguments are

          1. “100% responding the same”

          2. Samples taken represent the true population (ie, mean/variance are the same for sample vs population).

          If both are true, 20 would be quite significant. Unfortunately, I don’t think one can claim that in this survey.

          1. SparkEV says:

            Forgot to add my qualification: some random poster in internet forum. 🙂

            1. Or, a current lover of his Spark EV! Or, an active Blogger! Or – one who hates Nissan’s ‘Free to Charge’ program! Or, one who lives in a country that will Get the Model 3 First, no matter when the Orders came in (Reservations)!

              These are all part of your Qualifications: as part of what makes a judgement call in your analysis!

              1. SparkEV says:

                Well, those qualifications don’t mean much in statistical comment. Better qualification might be someone who will lose tons of money in craps table. Fortunately, I’m ahead so far, but it’s only a matter of time.

        3. ffbj says:

          A few more surveys would be in order, to get a more exact representation. For instance one that selects from a more random sample.

        4. Kosh says:

          My qualifications: Minored in Statistics in college 30 years ago… 😉

          IIRC, the Central Limit Theorem requires only a sampling size of 30 to accurately represent the population… PROVIDING that the sampling is truly random.

          1. SparkEV says:

            In terawatt comment, one can think of it as ideal fair coin flip (50-50 chance, aka known mean and variance), and having it come up 20 heads in a row. But as we all agree, the “coin” chosen is probably not ideal nor fair.

            As for “everything will turn Gaussian eventually” (central limit theorem), I still have hard time accepting it; yes, math works, but it’s so weird why Gaussian instead of some other continuous function.

  2. Dav8or says:

    It makes sense. If you have your heart set on a Tesla Model 3, there really is no replacement of that in the market place… yet. Other than buying a used Tesla Model S, there is nothing else comparable. The Bolt and the new Leaf just aren’t that comparable to the Model 3 if you really want that hip and cool supposedly “cutting edge” Tesla sizzle. These poor folks just have to wait until Tesla gets it’s act together, but with an wacky ADD CEO and prophet in charge, it might take a while.

    If Mercedes, BMW, Audi or even Buick and Cadillac were smart right now, they would be working overtime to get a fully functional production prototype comparable to the Model 3 ready for the NAIAS in January. Something sexy, but makes up for the short comings of the Model 3 and then you would see reservations cancel.

    1. What would that be like, technically?

      Something Smaller, but with More Room, Comes Standard with Roof Racks, and can drive 300 Miles per charge, on a Base Model, for $30,000! Something you can plug into a CCS, CHAdeMO, J1772, Supercharger, and charge up in 10 Minutes; be able to Tow 3,500 Lbs, be able to take Delivery in 30 days, service at ANY OEM Dealership that Sells EV’s today; and can be shipped to Any Country with minimal changes, and Driven and Charged there?

      Yes! That would (Maybe) take 20% to 30% tops, of the top of the Model 3 Reservation List! For now!

      Basically, BMW, GM, MB, FORD, FCA, LAND ROVER, HYUNDAI/KIA, JAGUAR, TOYOTA/MAZDA, & NISSAN, Would have to all get together on such an EV, PLUS, Strike a Deal to work with Tesla, to use and Expand the Supercharger Network!

      I just don’t see it happening in the next 2 months to bring such a Killer App, or EV, to even Concept Stage, to show in Detroit, this, or any other year!

      1. Dav8or says:

        You know it doesn’t have to be all that. It just has to be a Model 3 competitor and most importantly, be available in a timely and scheduled fashion. Not all car companies take forever, make mistakes and miss deadlines like Tesla. GM and Nissan have proven this.

        Other car companies could reveal fully functioning production prototypes in just two months IF- they have already been quietly working on it. Not every company has a CEO that tweets everyday about visions of the future and feels compelled to send out black, shadowy teaser photos. They just work and get the job done.

        I’m not saying that there is going to be any big surprises next year, because I have no insider knowledge or anything, but I do think it’s possible given the attention the Model 3 has gotten and recent global government mandates on the horizon. I’m saying that if other companies were smart, they would be working hard now to steal Tesla’s thunder. They are vulnerable now as they stumble along and Elon continues to extend even further than he probably should.

        1. stan1 says:

          They are ahead of schedule.

        2. Stimpy says:

          “Not all car companies take forever, make mistakes and miss deadlines like Tesla. GM and Nissan have proven this.”

          I somewhat agree with you, but half the equation with a BEV is the charger network. Nissan is holding out on the dead-man-walking (in the US) Chademo and GM flatly said they’ll never build one out.

          Yeah, they’d all be perfectly happy if Telsa never came along and forced them to start considering BEVs and their (for the short-term anyway) lower margins at all. They are in the uncomfortable position of having to sell newer, expensive, just better BEVs against their outdated ICE vehicles simultaneously. How can you really promote a BEV properly without also pointing out exactly why your ICE cars are worse? You can’t!

  3. Terawatt says:

    I’ve kept my reservation, and the estimated delivery is the same as it was before – late 2018. I reserved hours before anyone in the US, thanks to time-zone advantage, but it was always clear we would have to wait a bit longer over here…

    I don’t have much issue with the delay. But I very much agree with the analyst who considers the customers’ passion a huge asset for Tesla, and I have to say I am not impressed with how Tesla is managing that capital. While their difficulties ramping up may be understandable and easily forgiven, their less than perfectly honest communication has definitely frustrated me, and reduced my goodwill towards Tesla.

    If the 60 kWh LEAF had arrived now instead of the 40 kWh one, I think there’s a very real chance I would have cancelled, in part to eliminate uncertainty but mainly to eliminate the wait. My 2012 LEAF with 80% capacity remaining works well in daily life but really does limit my traveling in summer, and I would also like a bit more oomph and the improved sound-proofing…

    I’ve also reserved a Hyundai KONA. It might prove a string contender, with 64.2 kWh and by far the best warranty of any car brand in Norway (7 years everything), affordable insurance, lots of equipment including CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as being my best shot at getting a wife (“Kona” in Norwegian means “the wife”, a funny coincidence if not quite as funny as that of Honda Fitta, which decency prevents me from translating).

    1. Even if buying another EV, I see no reason to cancel a Model 3 Reservation, at least until the last minute, & After having taken a test drive! The $1000 would not substantially change or benefit my finances enough to drop the spot, and many things in the Model 3 may change by ‘Late 2018’ when my Ontario, Canada Delivery is slated for!

      Obviously, Dual Motor information is still not out: Price, or Performance, or Range! User interface is still being Tweaked! Towing is not yet proven as ‘Never will Happen!’ Option prices may Change by then, as well! 12 Months worth of Unknown elements, yet, how I see it!

      1. Leeg747 says:

        Agree 100%! That’s why I went and bought a Model S before November 10 so I would have a guaranteed delivery before year end to get the $7500 USA tax benefits. I can then order a cheaper version Model 3 than I had originally planned since it’s would then be the second electric car in the family and the range issues will have been met by the Model S. My delivery date was January to March and was only backed up a month. But with the change to a cheaper battery delivery estimate will move to Summer and I possibly will have recovered financially from the $20,000 more that the S cost me over the 3 I had originally planned on. The expected tax benefit reduces the spread to $12,500. Not too much on a monthly basis.

  4. Stuart says:

    I stood in line and reserved, sight unseen, before the reveal. I canceled my reservation last month. If the car had been more what I was looking for, I would have waited. If the options I wanted had been cheaper, I probably would have waited. But ultimately it wasn’t close enough to what I wanted in a car to justify the price and wait.

    So I canceled and bought a used EV for much less than a new 3, and I’m very happy with it. When I stopped to think of it, a new car (of any kind) just isn’t a very good value, and I’m not in a place that I can be paying that kind of premium. The 3 looks great, but it’s just not for me at this price and this time frame.

  5. Mikael says:

    Why would we cancel? We knew what we were signing up for.

    And it’s not like there is any competition out there.

    1. Warren says:

      And, when it comes to our fantasies, “Two in the bush is always better than a bird in the hand.”

      1. So buy another EV or 2! What does that have to do with cancelling?

        Especially so many months away from even being invited to do a test drive?

        The car can be ReSold after buying it, and you could get a premium on it, most likely, as well, for some pocket change!

      2. Mikael says:

        We have two EVs so it’s more like two in the hand and one in the bush 😉

    2. L'amata says:

      Maybe by a used cheap EV at a fraction of the cost? That’s a huge compremise ..

  6. ffbj says:

    Great Comments All. While we wait here are some electric buses. All in in Shenzehn.

    1. Mikael says:

      Added info to that is that all buses in Shenzhen are all electric by next month.

      No, not new sales…the whole damn fleet of a 12 million people city.

      Impressive…

      1. ffbj says:

        Right. That’s what I meant by all in. All buses are now electric there. 14k, Really Cool.

  7. hpver says:

    I canceled not because I dislike Tesla, but simply because I didn’t have the time or the money to wait another year and for the tax credit to go away. Bought a Bolt for about 22K and change out of pocket and it serves us just fine. I could not care less about looking hip or cool or whatever. The car is very good and does all we need and then some. I plan to keep it a long time.

    I hope Tesla does well, and I think they will — eventually. I own some of their stock and I’m not selling it at this point.

    1. Reddy says:

      Huh? Where and how can you get a half-priced Bolt when most of the country can’t even get them. Everyone in my state is OVER MSRP.

      1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

        Most likely the price after fed rebate and probably state incentives.

        Just keep that in mind when peeps post what they paid.

      2. hpver says:

        $3,950 dealer discount
        $3,000 Chevy private offer discount
        $3,000 local air district rebate (San Joaquin Valley)
        $500 electric utility rebate (PG&E)
        $7,500 Federal tax credit
        $2,500 California clean vehicle rebate

        So a total of $20,450 off MSRP.

        Kind of a no-brainer to buy it.

        1. Mister G says:

          WOW…in Florida we don’t get s__t and Florida is already underwater during king tides LOL

        2. Mark says:

          Where/how did you get that $3k Chevy private offer discount? I’m in the middle of trying to get a lease, but if I could get as much of a discount as you did, I’d consider a purchase instead. Fantastic deal!

          1. hpver says:

            We leased a Spark EV in 2016 and still have it until 2019. I think I got the private offer because of that, but honestly it just showed up in my email.

            The Spark was also a great deal. Low lease cost combined with high local and state rebates made it basically a no cost car for three years (except insurance, electrons and registration).

            1. Mark.ca says:

              Now that is a deal! Great job, man!

    2. Klaus says:

      I also cancelled and got a Bolt. The 3 wasn’t a perfect fit for me anyway as I prefer hatchback design, want AWD or FWD, and needed to replace my leaf and I have little confidence in Tesla’s timeline for AWD.

      So far I really like it and range is better than advertised. No doubt there are advantages with the 3, but the Bolt has advantage for me and also has features I like that don’t come with the 3.

      1. Mark says:

        Same here. I stood in line on day 1, reserved 2 sight unseen. Have since cancelled 1, and still holding onto the other, but in the meantime, I’ve decided to lease a Bolt since its such a practical car and so damn cheap to lease. Hell, these 1-pay leases end up being less than the sales tax on $50,000 LR Model 3. My co-worker leased a base Bolt for $8,200 for 45k miles/3 years. He will get back $3,700 in rebates, so his total out of pocket on a 3 year Bolt EV lease is only $4,500!!!! My sales tax rate here is 9.5%, on top of the $49k price tag of the LR premium Model 3, the sales tax alone is $4,655. His entire lease is less than the sales tax I’d planned to pay on my Model 3.

        1. Klaus says:

          Nice deals to be found for sure now that the Bolt is hitting the rest of the states.

          I figure I’ll have the Bolt a few years and then can move into a used Tesla or start waiting again on the model Y 😉

  8. Reddy says:

    I’m keeping my reservation, and didn’t expect delivery until late 2018, maybe early 2019. My 9-bar 2011 Leaf still works fine for my in-town use. The next bar should be lost in late 2018, but even still, it should be good for another 5 years (I was hoping for 15 years). Heck, with the rapid depreciation of cars, and especially EVs, I might cancel and wait an extra 3-5 years for the used ones to start showing up.

  9. Eco says:

    My next car will be a Tesla so I’ll keep my Model 3 reservation unless I can somehow afford a Model S or X.

  10. Ramblin' Rod says:

    Money talks, and I hear $7500 loud and clear. I stood in line on the first day to get an early reservation so I’d qualify for the tax credit. If the credit survives I’ll buy the base model early next year, but if there’s no credit I’ll buy a used car and come back for a Tesla in a few years when prices are lower and the configuration is more flexible.

  11. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    I’m an outlier.
    I’ll wait till till 2020 knowing the Fed tax credit will most likely be gone and the State may be reduced. 2020 will give me 1 full year to save after both cars are paid off in early 2019.
    Not in a rush.

  12. Scott Franco says:

    Kept my reservation, but now assume delivery at late 2018. If they told me tomorrow it was ready, I would consider asking for a 6 month delay, because I don’t really want a first production unit.

  13. Mr. Obvius says:

    Asking reservation holders if they, well, are reservation holders? They should ask/find who already canceled the reservation to get useful statistics.

    If they stick with this pattern and ask 20 pregnant women if they are pregnant, the result will be 100% of all pregnant women are pregnant!

  14. Brett says:

    Well yeah, the deposits are not refundable. Why cancel? Where’s the profit motive?

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Wut? The deposits are fully refundable.

    2. bro1999 says:

      They are refundable. It just takes anywhere from 1 week-6 months to get it back.

      1. Nick says:

        Oh no! Better get a Hummer then.

      2. Recoil says:

        Yo bro still mad that no one want the bolt and they are ton sitting on dealers lots with huge price markdown to try and get people to buy them?

        Or maybe you’re mad that there are people willing to put $1,000 down on a car that comes with a lot more options and looks a lot better than the bolt.

        Or maybe you’re mad that the model 3 MSRP is less the the bolt yet it looks better and comes with fast charging without paying an additional $750.

        Or maybe you’re are just mad because you came home early one day and found a tesla unexpectedly in your driveway.

        Or maybe your just mad that without even trying Tesla has more pre orders than 12 years worth of bolt sales.

        The point is you seem very mad at Tesla with an irrational hatred of Tesla to the point you should seek psychological help.

        1. Steve Townsend says:

          Yes, it takes a very strange individual to spend so much time each and every day spitting venom about a car he is not even interested in. Normal psychology would seem to produce indifference in this situation.

      3. Recoil says:

        BTW it is taking a lot less than 6 months now you are just a FUD stuck in the past trying to put the worst light even while you lie about it.

  15. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “Bloomberg News asked 20 Model 3 reservation holders if they intend to cancel, and at this point, not a single one is doing so.”

    ::facepalm::

    Do we really need to point out the danger of relying on such a very small sample size? Heck, we’ve seen people posting comments to InsideEVs reporting that they cancelled their reservation.

    Reality check: It has been reported that about 25% of Model S reservation holders cancelled their order, back when the MS was new. It’s reasonable to expect something on that order for TM3 reservation holders. Suggesting that nobody is going to cancel their TM3 reservation is downright silly.

    Besides, the actual number of cancellations isn’t very relevant. What’s important is the ratio between cancellations of existing reservations and the number of new reservations coming in. For all we know, Tesla is still getting new TM3 reservations faster than old ones are being cancelled.

    1. Nick says:

      Haha!

      You have a statically valid sample? Well I have an anecdote from an anonymous web forum! Check mate!

  16. Nix says:

    The Bloomberg stuff was pointless, but the actual hard data supports the conclusion.

    Tesla’s total deposits for Model S/X, and 3 are up yet again this quarter.

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      “Yet again”?? Customer deposits were down three consecutive quarters prior to this one.

      Customer deposits were 680m on 6/30/16 and 686m 15 months later on 9/30/17. There may have been a decline in Model X deposits offset by modest growth in Model 3. It’s also possible Model 3 deposits declined for a few quarters then started growing again as the Launch event neared. We don’t know for sure since Tesla lumps all deposits together.

      None of this sheds any light on cancellations since the delay. The most recent customer deposit data is for 9/30/17, more than a month before the delay was announced.

      1. Nix says:

        You have failed to account for the fact that Tesla cut the deposit for the Model S and Model X in half since 2016. It dropped from $5,000 to just $2500. If you reverse the deposit difference out, you will see that Model 3 deposits are likely up (unless there is some massive S/X backlog of deposits.)

  17. koz says:

    A cornucopia of passive aggressive negativity toward Tesla and Tesla customers in this article. There are a lot of people with a lot of different reasons that made and have stuck with their reservations for the Model 3. Most of them probably didn’t pay much attention to the media’s and pessimist’s obsession with defining Tesla’s commitments and then gleefully holding them accountable for making “false” promises. The fact is Tesla always said it would take perfect execution to meet their admittedly lofty goals. They’ve missed and will be 1-3 months behind at the least. Big friggen deal. Where would other manufacturer’s be at this point in time given the time constraints and what type of product would we be looking at from them?

    1. Dan says:

      Not to complain about T but established car makers build the cars and test them, revise things as needed, make sure the assembly line and supply chain are in order and then push the big green GO button.

      Tesla probably WILL do it this way when (if?) more established and not under so much time and financial pressure.

      They are operating at the leading edge of EV tech and, for those who are set on their product, deserve (and generally will get) a break.

      1. koz says:

        Yes, and how long does it take to do those things the way they do them? You are most likely right that Tesla will more testing and build more betas and release candidates once they have more scale and more working capital. Hopefully you are wrong in the implication that they will allow that to affect their time to meaningful production to the public. Time to market is one of Tesla’s critical advantages.

    2. bro1999 says:

      They would have already released the cars (and not via a sham delivery party).
      Look at the Bolt. Announced as going into production by the end of 2016 in Jan 2015, and it was launched and delivered in December 2016 to the public.

      1. Stimpy says:

        As I’ve said before, the Bolt took a full freakin year to make it all US states.

        They just showed up by me last month!

  18. Leon says:

    Just noticed the there is no new inventory for the Model S on Tesla.com. Does that mean Model 3’s are on the assembly line and Model S’s are not?

    1. Nix says:

      I see inventory. maybe try another zip, or try a third party site that links to the Tesla site, like ev-cpo.com

      1. Leon says:

        Thanks, there seems to be new inventory if you live in California. I live in Reno, Nevada.

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