Tesla Model 3 Delivery Push In Full Ramp Mode


It seems that people are going to be floored when they learn how many Tesla Model 3 sedans are being delivered currently.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has admitted that delivery logistics is the new problem for Tesla, especially in regards to its hugely popular Model 3. Now that the automaker is finally out of “production hell,” it has entered delivery hell. However, since the company is aware of the problem, and has been for some time, it’s able to get to work establishing a quick fix.

Tesla is notorious for delivering a large number of vehicles in the final month of every quarter. This is especially true for U.S. deliveries. While the Model 3 is being delivered in Canada, it has been delivered primarily in the U.S. since its inception, as overseas deliveries have not yet begun.

As most everyone is aware at this point, the automaker struggled with Model 3 production early on, which lasted for many months. For this reason, delivery logistics wasn’t a major issue since there just weren’t that many cars to deliver. Now, Tesla is on the cusp of consistent production of some 5,000 Model 3s per week. It’s also important to note that over the past several months, there has been a backlog of Model 3 vehicles produced, but not delivered. Some were stockpiled for one reason or another, while others were in transit at the end of the month, etc.

As we approach the end of September, the third quarter is coming to a close. According to recent news, Tesla’s goal is to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3s in the third quarter and deliver as many of these as humanly possible. After multiple complaints from reservation holders surrounding delivery delays, Musk has made it clear that Tesla is making quick work of fixing the problem and it’s much easier to fix than production issues. Over the past several days, we’ve seen and heard many indications that Model 3 deliveries are increasing exponentially in the U.S. and Canada. Delivery centers are staying open for longer hours and logistics seem to be improving immensely.

Soon enough, InsideEVs will have the more official scoop on Tesla Model 3 deliveries for September and for Q3 as a whole. Elon’s brother Kimbal Musk recently spoke on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” He said:

This month is an exciting month for us. You know, it’s really gonna blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, Musk sent a congratulatory letter to employees stating:

First, I’d like to thank you for your incredible efforts and contribution as we enter the final few weeks of this quarter. This is a very exciting time for Tesla, to say the least, and you are the reason for the tremendous progress we’ve made in a relatively short period of time. It is easy to forget that our company was almost unknown 10 years ago and didn’t even exist until after the start of the 21st century!

We are about to have the most amazing quarter in our history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as we did last quarter.

It will be interesting and very exciting to see what Tesla can pull off in the coming days.


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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.


Tesla Model 3 Performance - Dual Motor Badge
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113 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Delivery Push In Full Ramp Mode"

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In my “unofficial tally” of counting Model 3s on my 30 minute commute to Palo Alto in Silicon valley, I have scored 17 Model 3s three different times. Yesterday I saw 4 of them before even getting on the freeway. This car is in danger of becoming common here.

It’s selling in such high numbers no one wants it anymore.

Or: “no one wants it anymore, It’s selling in such high numbers!”

Yep, that’s a little better….

I don’t want One Neither …..I want Two Now! ……….lol

Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.
-Yogi Berra

Yes, the original….

Drat! You got there first. 😉

Who’s on second!

They’re Popping them off the production Line Like a PEZ Dispenser .. lol… It’s Great !

SF Bay Area is mecca for EVs. So, naturally Model 3 takes the lead in it.

Someone should, like, measure the air pollution. At some point it’s going to be noticeably cleaner.

I gave up counting. It is how many times I see two around me, at any given time. ..And I’m east coast.

I hope our patient European friends understand this is about the US tax-credit rush.

I do, but I am afraid most is not. Most people do not read US EV sites 🙂 It is hurting Tesla’s reputation that they are not up front with their strategic choices. (And Musk is getting a beating (or giving himself a beating) with the Twitter messages)

I get more negative comments on Tesla now than I did earlier. And many of the comments are related to Tesla’s business practice. Insanely bad customer support in many documented cases is also not helping.

Ron Swanson's Mustache

I don’t live anywhere near Silicon Valley or California, and last weekend I counted four Model 3s.

i live in the country and i see about one a day at least now

Not quite so dramatic, but it is becoming a common sight here in Berkeley, Kind of like Priuses back in the day but more quicker.


I love the high number of Tesla 3’s being produced and delivered, great work, but I visit my SC very day in downtown Las Vegas and the 3 is extremely rare,I’ve seen total of four, and the last two were weeks ago,strange,anyway,they’ll come.

Strange. I live in NC and haven’t been to a supercharger in the last 2 months without seeing a three.

Been woke for over a decade, doing what I can and trying to get people to listen. Making progress.

Scott – I envy you, I could see only 1 or max – 2 Model-3 and that too only on few days in my 40 minute commute in Chicago suburbs. I wish I join your ranks, but by that time, you will be surrounded on all 4 sides by Model-3. If only our cars are flying, you may see on 6 sides including top & bottom.

Well that’s good news. But the air won’t clear up until everyone’s driving one.

Elon Musk said: “…We are about to have the most amazing quarter in our history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as we did last quarter…”

Amazing indeed. Great job Tesla!

Demand for $49k+ cars is this high. I cannot imagine when $35k cars are available. Is there any place under the hell?

The average is now at $60k!!! I must say I’m surprised by this high demand.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Yeah me too……I thought to myself WTF???

…..and all the Big boys kept saying there’s no demand…….ROTFLMAO

N0 SURPRISE At All ! ..They are selling Dirty Fugly Gas Guzzling Polluting SUV’s , Trucks , Etc: for Much more $$$$ than The Model 3 Average Price..

I know a soon to be owner of a tm3 who was waiting for a SR model, but bought the LR model to get the tax rebate. That may be driving the demand for the rest of the year. Better to buy the LR at a discount than a SR without a discount.

Math failure, but I guess good for Tesla. Paying 14k for a $3750 discount seems strange. Sounds more like the person just talked themselves into spending more money.

Looking at it another way, they are getting $14,000 worth of upgrades for $10,250… Few people can resist such an offer 😉

Also, there are probably quite some people who hoped to get premium standard range, or non-premium long range — in the latter case especially, the premium upgrade effectively comes almost for free when ordering now…

Well, I expect the PUP to be mandatory until the middle of next year. It seems more like getting the $9000 range/power upgrade for $5250. That’s a pretty great discount.

Again, here is the math for CA…..
LR + PUP is $49K – $10k fed and CA credits = $39K
SR + PUP is $40K – $2500 CA rebate=$37.5k
If you buy the LR you get 90 miles of extra range for $1500!!!

That is true. But $49K will cost ~$1K more than $40K in sales tax and registration/tags/title cost before incentives.

$700-800 in tax difference… you were close.

In Q1&2 there will still be $3750 in federal credit available, so that makes SR + PUP $33.75K so 90 miles for $5250

But, but, where are all the “experts” that were saying, some years ago, that “there is no demand for electric cars” and that “Tesla, after the first months of rush in 2012 and 2013, will not be able to sell more than 3.000 cars A YEAR, and only for the “few tree-hungers” that exist still in USA”…?
I know, I know, they are celebrating at @$TSLAQ, or “selling the skin of the bear before they effectively caught him” like we used to say in France… Poor souls they are.

Presumably they are the same “experts” who are now saying the current level of Model 3 sales is unsustainable; that demand has dropped off a cliff, and that Tesla is now stockpiling Model 3’s because it doesn’t have buyers for them.

Hey, why should they waste time making up new FÜD, when they can just keep recycling the same old B.S. they were shoveling out about the Model S, and then the Model X?

Of course, now that the Model 3 is a runaway success, and is now the #5 best-selling “car” (not including light trucks) in the USA, the question is why anyone would actually care what the Tesla bashers say these days. Very, very clearly Tesla has won… and they have very, very clearly lost!

The only remaining question worthy of consideration, regarding the serial Tesla bashers, is just how long they’re going to remain in denial about Tesla’s runaway success. Some of them will no doubt go to their grave still whining that Tesla will decline and fall… real soon now!

The $35,000 cars, will be scooped up, and used as “City Runabouts”, 2 for 1, in numbers!
SSM! (So Says Me!)

Yea..,They keep on Pumping them Out !! But they’re Losing Money on every Car they Sell ! ! ! ! !……..rotf lmfao ………..Say, The SHORTS & F00LS !

The more impressive part of the demand is the mandatory $5K PUP…

Yea, I wish they offered it without PUP, but PUP is very important to the profitability.

Profitability Upgrade Package

Please have some mercy with shorters and Russian trolls……

There’s no point, they never had mercy on Tesla

This basically “cut corners” mode.

It’s getting uncomfortable is it?

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

The last time I bought a car from a stealership, I signed the papers after the 2hr haggle bull$h1t and when they handed me the keys, I left. No big show me anything on how to use the car.

The TM3, since the financing has already been done all that’s left is to sign paperwork, get the keys and hit the GO pedal.

They always showed me the car before handing over the keys…maybe choose a different dealer next time…or go to Tesla.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Most of the time I know more of the car than the greazy shark sales dirtbag.

It is also going to cut down a lot of shorters like you.

I told you guys the Russian trolls are back…..

Steven, you noted that InsideEVs will have an estimated count soon enough. Are you saying that by the end of Q3 reporting you will have an estimate on Model 3s delivered to Canada as well or will we have to wait on Tesla’s earnings report for the quarter?

It really depends on how everything plays out. We track Model 3 Canada deliveries to a point, otherwise, our U.S. numbers wouldn’t work out. However, we’ve never focused heavily on it. We did publish a story after the fact one month. I’ll have to talk with Wade and see exactly how we are going to handle this month and Q3. I just got back from SF and we haven’t sat down and dealt with the upcoming sales week yet.

Tell them to Reduce the Canadian Price , It’s killer without the $14000 ..rebate that the Idiot Doug Ford Eliminated in turn to give the Polluters More tax $$$Credits At the EV Buyer’s Expense… “IN CANADA , THEY REWARD CRIMINALS”

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous


When you buy a VW product you’re doing the same thing.

But I Don’t..ha ha !

Please don’t hold off on publishing your initial estimate, you can always come back later and adjust based on new information. Everyone is on the edge of their seats waiting for these numbers this quarter. We all want to know how many Model 3’s sold in September and Q3. Also, if you can provide any estimate on Canadian deliveries, that would be icing on the cake. I think this quarter will be the true start of the tsunami that will finally make BEVs mainstream.

For sure. We’ll get it out as quick as we can.

Steve I would be interested in you commenting on the Bloomberg Tracker numbers…currently around 3247 ish per week. Yet I see the number 5000 mentioned again. Any insite to the discrepancy. Methodology maybe, or is it something more tangible like supply chain problems.

Thanks Steve.

To quote a comment by Antrik on this subject:

“This is actually explained on the Bloomberg page… The nature of the data sources makes it impossible to estimate production at individual weeks precision.”

Bloomberg’s so-called production “tracker” isn’t really a tracker, it’s an estimator. Their margin of error is too high for the level of precision you’re looking for.

I’m famous! 😉

If Pushy gives you the green light, it’s the red carpet treatment from here on out!

I still think he takes 10% off the top?
I’m not positive, so it’s best to check!

You’ll be getting my bill for payola shortly. 😉

Bloomberg is not very accurate, they were high before so lower to get average right,Troytracker is about 4,100 a week,Important numbers are 51K for the quarter and deliveries a little more.

We know they’ve hit 5,000 a few times and come close a few others. There have been some lower weeks like the one you mentioned from Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s tracker is not a good model for short-term numbers. It’s simply an estimator based on info gleaned from VINs. Over the long term, it tends to be much more accurate. In terms of reasons why production may be close to 5,000 some weeks and lower others weeks, there are a myriad of variables. The biggest emphasis now really shouldn’t be “how many can they make,” but rather “how many can they deliver.” Telsa seems to be building every car that is configured and then some, but up until now, the automaker was having a hell of a time getting them to customers. We’ll have more insight in a few weeks.

The specific reason for the discrepancy right now is pretty clear if you look at their VIN registrations graph: Tesla registered a huge number of VINs some weeks ago, and very few more recently. As a result, the Bloomberg tracker estimations where high for most of August, and low for September. As Tesla narrows the gap between VIN registrations and actual production, the Bloomberg tracker swerves back to reality… At least until Tesla registers further huge batches of VINs.

Their VIN Registration model has tracked Electrek and Troy pretty closely. It’s also in line with Tesla guidance. It’s their VIN Spotted model that’s way off this quarter.

That’s not what their graphs look like to me at all…

So the Bloomberg tracker is inaccurate at the moment?

We don’t ever rely on it for short-term projections. We would only know if it WAS accurate by looking back at numbers from some time ago. As for current production, we don’t trust it. However, keep in mind that we don’t really care or follow Tesla production. What matters to us – and should matter to the masses – is how many cars the company can actually put in customer driveways. For us, it’s all about the deliveries.

Sounds about right! Parent’s Model 3 has been delivery delayed a week now. Logistics up here is crazy due to truck driver shortages and distances… 550 miles from the nearest Tesla delivery point. There is one Model 3 in town already!

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

hey, where’s my comment go?


The Model 3 delivery flood, is turning out to be a Tesla “CARtastrophy”, that is for the legacy ICE OEMs!

It’s funny how so many of the “problems” reported about Tesla are problems that most people would love to have…
-“Oh, we have so many customers and so many cars coming out of the factory that it is hard to deliver all the cars!”
-“Oh, the demand for the cars is so high that we have to drop a couple colors to streamline the paintshop.”
-“Oh, the collision body repairs are slow such that we need to build a new revenue stream of body shops.”
-“Oh, customers are upset because we can’t produce the product fast enough.”
-“Oh, customers are upset because they can’t get the low price version since we have so many people buying premium models.”

There are legit issues…like can they get costs down so that lower price versions can be built at a profit?…but so many of these “problems” are just things that will get solved and to be expected for a car company that is doubling its physical product output in just a few months.

Yes, the “problems” Tesla has which are related to demand being significantly higher than supply, are ones which most or nearly all manufacturers world-wide would love to have!

For many of these “problems”, Tesla is — as they say — crying all the way to the bank!

24,000 on Sep, + 14250+17800 == 56050

Delivering 500 cars per day would be a big task for any company.

On my commute home, 18 miles in Northern Virginia, I typically see between 5 and 10 EVs, most are Teslas. 4 years ago it was a novelty to see 1. More and more are model 3’s these days. Usually 2 to 4 per day. Also at least 3 in the parking lot of the office complex where I work, and I don’t have mine yet.

From the Q2 Update Letter:
“We produced 53,339 vehicles in Q2 and delivered 22,319 Model S and Model X vehicles and 18,449 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 40,768
deliveries. ”

Should we expect 85,000 deliveries?

Assuming 25,000 of those deliveries are S/X for Q3, will they have delivered 60,000 Model 3s?

I think that is about right. Triple the USA deliveries of Q2, that only doubled the deliveries of Q1.
While some keep harping on the management for the problems, I say this is a world class achievement of the whole team.

Tesla my guess is that S/X deliveries are closer to 27000.

Just north of 20k for a 50k quarter.

Are any of these being delivered outside of the US?

A small number in Canada. Otherwise, no.

I know I’m going to get lol at and I can look it up online but what is a “shorter” lol

A “shorter” is someone who takes electrical wires and puts one in each ear, and plugs the other ends into an electric socket and then flips the switch. It is all the rage on youtube among the same folks who were eating Tide Pods.

Sure, some people say it causes brain damage, but the jerking motions look really cool when you put a “Harlem Shake” music track with the video, and then end by throwing a bucket of ice water on the shorter and really watch him twitch and shake!

(that stands for “Seriously!”)

@Nix said: “A “shorter” is someone who takes electrical wires and puts one in each ear…”

You forgot to mention the guy best known for that stunt is named jimmy (with a small “j”)… and that he has recently suffered serious injury.

Sounds like a profitable maneuver

“Shorter” is short (no pun intended) for “short seller”. Essentially, someone betting on the stock price going down. (For full explanation, look it up… I’m lazy 😛 )

In this context, it is a person who has a ‘short’ position on Tesla stock. A ‘short’ trade is made when someone, believing the stock price will drop in the future, sells stock (usually borrowed) shares, and pays back the same shares by buying an equal number (at a hopefully-cheaper price) later. Trading short is a viable and legal strategy, and useful to have active in a market. Short traders take a risk (of potentially bottomless losses), in exchange for the opportunity to capture some of the value that would otherwise be lost when a stock goes down. This can add liquidity to a market, and help in the more efficient reallocation of capital. Problems arise when nefarious interests short a stock, and then manipulate the market in order to force the company into a much worse financial position — or even bankruptcy. There certainly ARE exactly such ‘bad actors’ today, and they are demonstrably shorting Tesla stock — the allegation (difficult to prove, nearly impossible to do anything effective about) is that they are illegally forcing the stock price lower through exaggerated and outrageously false claims in the news. Just as a point of comparison, ‘long’ investors can also… Read more »


Oh, THOSE shorters. Yeah, there are those ones too, but they are much less fun at parties. *grin*

Seriously though, that’s one of the best balanced layman’s terms explanations I’ve ever seen. +1

I am really enjoying the september fever, always knew this point would come. Stock seems very resilient now.

We went for lunch at a place about half a mile down on the same road as a Tesla delivery center. I saw three transport trucks full of Model 3’s just while we ate lunch. Sure, it is anecdotal, and the plural of anecdote is anecdotes, and not “data”. But there are definitely lots of cars in play.

Even if their delivery ramp-up is happening too late in the quarter to show full results, and they deliver around the same number as before, that would still leave them at the top of the Scorecard yet again. So anything even remotely similar to last month would be a huge win, and every additional car they deliver on top of that is just a big thick layer of icing on the cake.

To us, it doesn’t make much of difference whether they only somewhat exceed last month’s record, or completely shatter it… To Tesla, it might be crucial though in order to meet their unusually strong promise regarding profitability.

Yeah, Elon has really raised the bar of expectations by almost promising a net profit this quarter. If he doesn’t deliver… well then, I expect the next time he makes a round of fund-raising, he’ll find a lot more doors shut in his face than he’s used to. Not saying that Tesla won’t be able to find more investments if they don’t show a profit this quarter, but if Elon keeps promising net profits without delivering, it’s going to become harder to raise funds. Perhaps eventually a lot harder, but hopefully it won’t come to that.

Based on my quick math, it won’t take that many sales in September to make this quarter “more than double” last quarter. They just need to deliver more than 12,500 or so vehicles in September, which is fewer cars than they delivered in July and August. And considering Bloomberg’s tracker is showing a Model 3 production slowdown, approximately 12,000-13,000 Model 3s sold in September would seem reasonable. Of course, they could end up surprising me with a massive number of delivered vehicles. But for now, my expectations are on the lower side.

12,500 Model 3 in September puts them at ~45k for the quarter. Add 26k S/X for 71k total vehicles. Need 81k+ to double Q2.

Our family total 5 Tesla
1x, 2 S and 1 Model 3
going to be 6th soon!
Plus 2Tesla trucks for our company as soon it available! maybe semi too!

You have connected the dots thank you

Well I’m beginning to believe Tesla didn’t deliver a number of Tesla’s in the 2nd quarter to keep the numbers under 200,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have 30,000 TM3’s for September.

I wonder how Tesla is doing with new orders vs deliveries. Could new orders be being added at a pace equal to delivery rates? Wondering if Model 3 is holding at a roughly 400k backlog even as deliveries ramp up which would be a very healthy demand.

It’s pretty exciting right now. I’m in a smaller city in Canada, I can see one daily, if I’m driving around a lot. I think it will be a daily occurrence even for short trips at the end of the year.

@ all short position traders: Set stop loss or your postion will get liquidated!
The house allways winns.

Steven, I agree that there are a very large number of Model 3s being delivered now. But how about next month etc? According to the Bloomberg tracker, which has been very accurate in the past, production has fallen to only 3200 a week lately – only just over half of the peak last month – way below 5,000 per week…


Bloomberg Tracker weekly rate has NEVER been accurate.

Cumulative production has been pretty accurate in the past, but one of the two models they use went off the rails this quarter so it’s running high.

But… but… Tesla is going to the graveyard! It must be so, because Bob Lutz said so! /SARCASM

If my experience at the Austin Service Center where I picked up my model 3 yesterday is any indicator September will be a yuuuuuge month for Tesla. The place was packed with Teslas being received by their jubilant new owners. There was literally no place to park. Austin is already crawling with the cars and rapidly adding to the total.

You have connected the dots thank you