Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimates Now Posted

4 months ago by Mark Kane 40

Tesla Model 3 production timeline

The Tesla Model 3 has entered the market, but now it’s time for a  long ramp-up through “production hell” till volume satisfies demand and fulfills some 500,000 reservations.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

A lot of reservations holders are wondering when they will be able to get a Model 3, but it varies a lot on the customer side:

  • market (U.S. first, beginning in California, and then international)
  • Tesla employee priority
  • Tesla S/X owner priority

…as well as on the manufacturing side, because the pace of the production increase for new features, AWD and right-hand drive is only estimated. And those estimates are very likely to change.

Here is what we know so far from the Tesla Model 3 FAQ:

Tesla Model 3 deliveries:

  • June: Production began with Long Range version only for employees
  • July 7: car #001 delivered to Elon Musk
  • July 28: total 30 first Model 3 delivered
  • August: ≈100 units to be delivered
  • September: more than 1500 units to be produced
  • October (late): Customer deliveries to begin
  • Fall: White interior option, non-Premium Upgrades
  • November: Standard version (from $35,000) to enter production
  • December: production rate to hit 5,000 a week
  • Spring 2018: Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive version to enter production
  • H2 of 2018: International deliveries of left-hand drive versions to begin
  • 2019: Production and deliveries of right-hand drive versions to begin

You can check the estimated delivery date of your Model 3 here, if you have a reservation, that is.

Tesla Model 3 production plan

One of the first 30 Tesla Model 3s delivered in July

Model 3 Reservations FAQ

I have a Model 3 reservation. When will I be invited to configure my car, and when can I take delivery?
You can find your estimated delivery date now here.

We are working hard to deliver Model 3 to reservation holders as soon as possible and will give you frequent updates on our progress to build and deliver your car.

Our production ramp will follow an S-Curve, meaning that it will begin slowly, grow exponentially, then start to trail off once we achieve full production. This is because we can only go as fast as our slowest supplier or production process (and the Model 3 has almost 10,000 unique parts). It’s difficult to predict which step this will be until we get further into the production ramp.

How will I receive an invitation to configure my Model 3?
We will send you an invitation to configure your Model 3 to the email address you used to place your reservation. Confirm your email address is up to date here. Invitations will be sent based on the date and time you placed your reservation, whether you are an employee, if you own a Tesla, and if we have started production in your country.

Production “Hell” is mapped out by Tesla for the Model 3

Which future options will be made available to order, and when?
We are planning to introduce the following options in the coming months:

Fall 2017: White interior option, standard configuration (non-Premium Upgrades)
November 2017: Standard Battery, $35,000 car
Spring 2018: Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive

Additional options will become available over time.

Will there still be a $35,000 Model 3 option?
Yes. Our first production Model 3 vehicles are preconfigured to ensure a smooth production ramp so that we can deliver more cars to more customers at a faster pace. The beginning configuration is a Long Range Battery with rear-wheel drive and premium upgrades, starting at $49,000. These vehicles come with three options for customization: wheel size, exterior color and Autopilot features.

Additional configurations, including the Model 3 with standard equipment for $35,000, will become available as production ramps, which we expect to be in November 2017.

We are shipping our first cars to employees now and expect to begin shipping the Long Range Battery configuration to customers in late October. The Standard Battery configuration will be available very soon thereafter.

Which features come standard with Model 3 for $35,000?
Model 3 is designed to be the safest car in its class, with 220 miles of range, and zero to 60 mph acceleration in 5.6 seconds. Standard features also include full self-driving hardware, Supercharging capability, a rear glass roof, a 15” touchscreen display, Wi-Fi and LTE internet connectivity, free over-the air software updates, full LED lighting, and an 8-year, 100,000 mile battery warranty.

Will I be able to see and test drive Model 3?
In the coming months, you will be able to test drive Model 3 on display in select Tesla stores. We will share more information on test drives soon. Sign up for the Tesla newsletter to receive the latest news, events, and product updates.

When will international deliveries begin?
Every country has its own set of rules and regulations, which means that we effectively must build a different car for different markets. This means international Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2018, contingent upon regulatory approvals, starting with left-hand drive markets, followed by right-hand drive markets in 2019. We wish we could do all this faster and get you your Model 3 right away. No action is required from international reservation holders now. We will contact you closer to the start of production for your country.

What type of payment options are available for my Model 3?
We currently support cash purchases and loan financing on Model 3. You can apply for financing through your Tesla account as your delivery day approaches.

Does Tesla accept trade-ins?
Yes. When your Model 3 order is confirmed, you can request a trade-in through your Tesla account.

Will I be eligible to receive incentives for purchasing Model 3?
You may be eligible for local or federal tax incentives when you purchase your Model 3. We recommend speaking with a tax professional for guidance, as some incentives may depend on your personal tax situation. For more information, please visit tesla.com/incentives.

Will I need to order Model 3 as soon as I receive my invitation?
For the fastest delivery of your Model 3, we encourage you to place your order as soon as you receive your invitation. The invitation to configure your Model 3 will have a link which will allow you to either configure your vehicle, or save your place in line and wait until later to order. We will continue to send invitations to reservation holders on a rolling basis, however delivery timing cannot be confirmed until an order is placed.

Where can I take delivery of my Model 3?
We will assign you a delivery location based on your registration address after you’ve confirmed your order.

I have relocated to a different state or country since placing my Model 3 reservation. How can I update my address?
You can update your registration address in your Tesla account here.

Can I use my Tesla owner priority on more than one Model 3 reservation?
Yes. If you own one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you own two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.

Is there a way to accelerate my Model 3 invitation and delivery?
Tesla owners receive priority Model 3 orders, so you can accelerate your Model 3 invitation and delivery by purchasing a Model S or Model X first. Otherwise, the fastest way to receive your Model 3 is by placing your order as soon as you receive your invitation.

What is the cost of Supercharging for Model 3?
Model 3 comes standard with the hardware necessary to utilize the global Tesla Supercharger Network. A small fee will apply for Supercharging—which is only a fraction of the cost of gas.

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40 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimates Now Posted"

  1. Taylor S Marks says:

    I’ve noticed that my AWD estimate seems to be earlier than almost everyone else’s (between July and September of 2018). I’m ahead of some owners in California and Florida… only employees seem to be ahead of me for it. I’m not an owner. I’m just a day one reservation in Massachusetts… I’m wondering if maybe Tesla will be prioritizing AWD for northern states?

    Or maybe they’re just prioritizing MA because they’re worried the incentives will run out soon?

    1. Taylor S Marks says:

      To clarify my last sentence, I mean the state incentive of $2500, not the federal $7500 incentive (although I think there’s a 60% chance that’ll be reduced down to $3750 by the time my car is delivered, if I choose to get AWD.)

      1. Kdawg says:

        I live in Michigan, and am not a Tesla owner.

        My dates are
        Dec 2017 – Feb 2018
        Feb – Apr 2018
        Sep – Nov 2018

        1. Moché says:

          “My dates are”

          ROFL reminds me of “my pronouns are” for BLT+ folks.

        2. Mjp462 says:

          I live in California. Not an employee. Not a Model S owner. Reserved on March 31, 2016. My RWD dates are the same.

          Big battery: Dec 2017 – Feb 2018
          Standard battery: Feb – Apr

          ??

          1. Assaf says:

            Just for the fun of it, can you try adding the premium package to the big-battery version (if you haven’t already) and see whether that makes delivery a couple of months early?

            Thanks!

            1. Kdawg says:

              There’s no adding or subtracting. The first date is for the big battery w/the premium options.. $49,000

        3. DJ says:

          So you have 3 separate reservations? Are you actually going to get 3 of them?

          1. Kdawg says:

            No, take a look at the twitter pic in the article. The 3 dates correspond to 3 different flavors.

        4. SJC says:

          December: production rate to hit 5,000 a week
          We will see, stay tuned to find out the real number.

        5. Josh Bryant says:

          Texas, not a current owner. Online reservation before the presentation.

          Long range Dec 17 – Feb 18
          Base Feb 18 – Apr 18
          AWD (both) Aug 18 – Oct 18

    2. Doggydogworld says:

      I’ve read a lot of reports about the delivery estimator being buggy, so you may want to re-check your date every so often.

    3. philip d says:

      I am also a non-Tesla owner in GA and reserved in the morning on day 1. I have the same Jul-Sep 2018 for AWD.

  2. Taylor S Marks says:

    It’s going to be interesting watching Model 3 rocket up the 2017 US plugin rankings.

    June: Bottom.
    July: 6th from the bottom, beating the Cadillac ELR.
    August: 9th from the bottom, beating the Hyundai Ioniq Electric.
    September: Middle, probably beating the Pacifica Plugin, maybe beating the Hyundai Sonata PHV.
    October: 8th from the top, between Ford’s top two plugin offerings.
    November: 5th from the top, tied with the Bolt.
    December: Top, with a decent margin between it and whichever is in second (hard to say how the Model 3 will shake things up.)

    1. Dan says:

      Easy tiger. Most companies would count these as pre-production test fleet. Don’t get wrapped up in the spin. Let them get to October first when they are comfortable enough with reliability to sell the cars to their customers. That is going to take time.

      1. ffbj says:

        Yeah. At least a few months.

    2. Neromanceres says:

      Not a chance. Tesla is only planning to build 1500 cars in September with customer deliveries starting in late October. Tesla will be lucky if they deliver (not build) 10K Model 3’s this year.

  3. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    I predict when my number hits, the Fed rebate will either be gone or minimal.
    No worries though, I’m still buying because I want and more importantly need the AWD for me to get to my mountain snow customers.

    I just hope a premium package is not required.

    1. Dan F. says:

      I bet many will be cancelling when they realize that the Fed. tax credit will be gone.

      I lease a plug in hybrid which I charge for free (came with the lease). Few people know what they pay for electricity and few know what it costs to run their EV.

      Here in CA, unless you are on a time of use plan and charge at night it costs the same (maybe more) to “fuel” your EV than to run a similar size hybrid. If you do have time of use you must have a PV system to offset the high cost peak and part peak charges or pay up which defeats the benefit of the off peak energy.

      A battery system that allows you to charge it at night along with the car and run the house from the battery during the day/evening would also work.

  4. georgeS says:

    Clear as mud.

    -October (late): Customer deliveries to begin
    -Fall: White interior option, non-Premium Upgrades
    -November: Standard version (from $35,000) to enter production

    So they are going to deliver to customers before they start production of the base version??

    1. Assaf says:

      Yes, they are… you might get your Model 3 this quarter, as long as you buy the big-battery version, and also the premium package, it seems.

      The 30 cars shown on Friday were all $59.5k cars, at least, unless they were black (less $1k) or their owners declined the autopilot features (fat chance given these are senior Tesla honchos).

      In short, almost Model S price. Precisely what I expected from Musk et al. Not that I don’t appreciate all they’ve done for the EV revolution, but they’ve never been in this business to sell low-margin cars – and they’re not starting to do it anytime soon.

      1. ffbj says:

        I think that is true.
        I worked mine up & it was 45k.
        Premium package & AWD.
        Not black paint.
        No autopilot.

        I will drive it very little, since I’m retired. Then when it is resold the person can add autopilot, since the hardware is included.

      2. jelloslug says:

        There are several of them that had the standard wheels and there is no way to know how many had FSD or even AP activated.

      3. Nix says:

        Assaf — some in the video could be seen with base wheels, so no, they aren’t all 59,500’s.

        Also, there was no preference given to management. They opened up the config tool to all employees, and the ones who got the first reservations were the ones who got in first. Just like the public reservations.

        Elon only got the first car because the employee who got the first reservation gave him the first reservation for his birthday.

  5. georgeS says:

    I guess the long range battery comes at the same time as AWD??

    1. Kdawg says:

      Long range battery is first. Then standard battery. Then your choice.

    2. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      I thought big battery first then small pack.
      AWD in very late 2018.

      1. georgeS says:

        kdawg, trollnonomous,
        Your right my bad. got tripped up.

        1. georgeS says:

          “The beginning configuration is a Long Range Battery with rear-wheel drive and premium upgrades, starting at $49,000. These vehicles come with three options for customization: wheel size, exterior color and Autopilot features.”

  6. Bul_gar says:

    That means no more than 25000 Model 3’s

    1. Mikael says:

      They are aiming for 10 000 per week sometime during 2018.

      I’d be very happy if they can hit 5 000 per week (or higher) in 2018.

      Hoping for 2 500 per week by december but I know that is pretty optimistic.

  7. Vexar says:

    Not even my low estimates were accurate. Less than 2000 units delivered for Q3. At least my September figure was accurate at 1500. I was expecting a steeper start by 1 month. This will matter when revenue needs to come in to pay for that short-term capital for initial manufacturing and very little else.

    The real question will be whether the GM Bolt, Leaf, and Volt will be outsold by the Model III in November or October. I expect August it will outsell the Ford Focus Electric and below (in the InsideEVs ranking), easily.
    The next date will be when the Model III outsells the Tesla Model S. My guess is that happens in December. Looking forward to increasingly desperate tones from TSLA short’sters out there!

  8. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    Anyone know when the new LEAF will hit the ground here and the specs?

    Just curious.

    1. jelloslug says:

      My guess is late September as an ’18 model and the range will be ~185 miles.

  9. fasterthanonecanimagine says:

    Don’t forget the tax subsidy aspect: Tesla might at some point stop delivering to the U.S. in order to a) build up a huge stock for US deliveries for in the following quarter in which they will reach the 200.000 units sold threshold and b) be able to produce at maximum rate (additional production lines)during 2 quarters, so as to let as many US customers as possible take advantage of the 7.500$ tax deduction.

    1. Chad says:

      Hoping Elon hasn’t forgotten his tweet about this! “Loyalty begets loyalty.”

  10. georgeS says:

    Looks like you can’t get tinted windows and UV glass in the first cars because they are in the premium package which isn’t available on the new cars.

    no good on glass roof in AZ.

    1. georgeS says:

      oops wrong again the 49K$ first versions DO have the premium upgrade package.

  11. Don Zenga says:

    If the Europeans have to wait until 2018-H2, then Nissan will have its way with the Leaf until then.

    Still we can hope that Nissan will price the Leaf right for mass market to ensure that Prius Prime / Hyundai Ioniq does not take away its market.

    1. Asak says:

      It’s looking more like the Renault Zoe will have it’s way, unless GM steps up Bolts (Ampera Es) sent to Europe.

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