This Is When You’ll Get Your Tesla Model 3 … Maybe

4 months ago by Steven Loveday 23

Initial Tesla Model 3 deliveries are right around the corner, and finally, you can get a pretty good idea of when you might get yours.

Tesla and SpaceX employees will get their Tesla Model 3s first because they had the opportunity to reserve theirs prior to the general public. This only makes sense, not only because they work for Elon Musk, but also because the group of employees can function like a pilot group, reporting early issues before production ramps up significantly.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

Ben Sullins of Teslanomics combined all of the other factors to create an interactive calculator. Aside from the Musk employee perk, it takes into account, reservation time, battery size, rear- or all-wheel drive, and location. From this information, Sullins’ algorithm gives you your estimated production and delivery dates.

Sullins jokingly claims to have spoken with Tesla CEO Elon Musk regarding this venture. Note the emphasis on jokingly … but there may not be a better resource than Sullins, along with his close collaboration with “those in the know” from the Model 3 Owners Club and Tesla Motors Club forum.

Video Description via Teslanomics by Ben Sullins on YouTube:

We’re all wondering… “When am I going to get my Tesla Model 3!?” I’ve built a tool to help you figure out when you’re going to get your model 3! It all started when…

I got call from Musk the other day, and he let me know there was a disturbance in the force. He told me people were getting restless waiting for their Model 3s, and I was chosen to help ease their concerns. So, I decided to give you the power of the force by creating a tool to help you predict when you’ll get your Model 3.

All kidding and Tesla superpowers aside, there are several factors that go into determining when your Model 3 will end up in your driveway. Step one in predicting when you’ll receive your Tesla is remembering when you made your reservation. During the Tesla unveiling event, the number of reservations was revealed, and this helped buyers calculate exactly where their place in line is. If you’re an existing Tesla owner, you’re in luck. You will get your Model 3 before general public.

According to Musk’s recent comments at a shareholders event, there are several other clues about how Tesla plans to deliver the Model 3. In a recent tweet, Elon shared:

“[There will] just be a single motor to begin with. And then, we will have the dual motor config, if we are lucky, toward the end of this year or more likely early next.”

So, which options you want with your Model 3, may impact your delivery date. Additionally, based on their previous roll-out strategy and the fact that California is where the Tesla factory is, Californians will likely be the first to get their Model 3s.

The last bit of information needed to determine when you’ll get your Model 3 is your location. This helps to understand the natural delay from their roll-out plan as well as shipping time. For example, in Japan, I’m estimating it takes 41 days just for shipping.

After you’ve entered all your information in my Tesla Model 3 delivery tool, you just need to click the big button. Then, “Tesllllll-YeAh!” You’ll get an estimated delivery date on a beautiful, printable page that you can hang on your wall and share on social media.

A big thanks to Troy and the other folks at Tesla Motors Club for providing the data and algorithm to come up with these estimates.

Source: Teslanomics via Teslarati

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23 responses to "This Is When You’ll Get Your Tesla Model 3 … Maybe"

  1. DJ says:

    What about Tesla and Space X employees that don’t want a black interior, a larger battery, dual motors, etc? Is Tesla somehow going to be able to handle the crazy difficult supply chain requirement to have more than one interior color in the beginning? Or is it that employees who want the one config they are going to make get it? Because if that’s the case a lot of non employees may get their Model 3 before the employees do.

    1. GeorgeS says:

      DJ
      A more interesting question is what are the terms of this “employee purchase”.

      That would be a breaking story…..to find out what tbis purchase agreement really says.

      1. Bonaire says:

        And will Tesla Finance hold the note? Is the lending “leveraged” at all and any secondary backers?

        1. SJC says:

          Even if they deliver a thousand to employees fourth quarter they will be forgiven. Potential customers have cut this company a LOT of slack.

  2. SparkEV says:

    “I was chosen to help ease their concerns” and then the Romans came and tied him to a cross and put thorny “hat” on him.

  3. Bonaire says:

    Perhaps dual motors use-up the supplied parts faster than dual-motors would (ie. smaller supplier order for some reason).

    Most buyers since late 2014 have wanted DWD Model S. What is strange is how RWD is the only choice for Model 3 initially.

    DWD options have saved this company – if all the cars were RWD only, things would look very different today. DWD also allows the rocketing performance that was a sell for so many.

    1. Stimpy says:

      Why are you trying to force a new unknown term for the longstanding term “AWD”?

      1. Bar says:

        Hmm, “dual” wheel drive. Aren’t most cars DWD?

    2. Robert Middleswarth says:

      More Likely they don’t want to get takening to task for only having a 60k version vs the 35k version. If they only provided the AWD version they wouldn’t have been able to get close to the 35k price tag they have been talking about.

  4. Stimpy says:

    The time field doesn’t include any reference to time zone, so what am I to assume here? PDT or my local time?

    Teslonomics must not be aware that the majority of people in the world don’t live in California.

    1. Stimpy says:

      Further, I don’t know what time the event was in PDT and would I know that? I only cared about what time it was locally.

      1. Nix says:

        It was scheduled for 8:30 PM PST:

        http://insideevs.com/tesla-raffling-off-model-3-launch-invites-online-orders-and-live-stream-begin-march-31st-at-830-pm/

        I seem to remember they started late?

        FYI for anybody who made an online reservation before the reveal event, online reservations began at 7:30 PM PST:

        https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/31/11340290/tesla-model-3-preorder-time-online-reservation

  5. Bret says:

    I sure love the look of the white Model 3 with those black rims.

    I would love to have a new Model 3, but I’m only 7 months into a 3 year lease on a LEAF. At least when my lease is finally up, I won’t have to wait in line for a Model 3 or buy a stripped down version. I’m also hopeful to avoid the bugs in the initial production units.

    1. DJ says:

      Swap a lease 🙂

      1. Bret says:

        I don’t have a Model 3 reservation, so it will probably be two years before I could even get one.

  6. creamcityjw says:

    I’m calling major BS. Changing no other options, selecting 4/1 vs 4/8 results in December 24, 2017 vs September 17, 2018.
    This is for a first-time Tesla buyer purchasing a RWD 75kW in US central time zone. I don’t buy that there are at least 150k reservations (given the base 5k weekly production) or upwards of 300k reservations (given the projected high-end 10k weekly production) in the course of that week. And finally, changing the reservation from 4/8 to 4/22 doesn’t affect the delivery date. What this tells me is there is really nothing behind the calculator but a few lines of code giving the same date for certain combinations of data.

    1. Mikael says:

      There were almost 400 000 reservations made during the first week. April 1st vs. April 8th will make all the difference.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “…changing the reservation from 4/8 to 4/22 doesn’t affect the delivery date.”

      There certainly doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe this “calculator” will give a result which will match reality. We don’t now what weight or priority Tesla gives the various factors involved, and neither does whoever created this “calculator”.

      I suggest the date given by this “calculator” is about as likely to match the real thing as one of those amateur Model 3 render eyesores, previously seen on InsideEVs, matches the real thing! 😉

  7. Terawatt says:

    My estimate was April 12, 2018. I don’t think that’s gonna happen. But if it does, it happens to be my brother’s birthday, which was a funny coincidence.

    1. Mister G says:

      April 2018 will work for me…my final mortgage payment is 3/2018:)

  8. FISHEV says:

    According to the calculator, Tesla will produce 180,000 Model 3’s by April 2018.

    That’s sounds optimistic.

    If someone were to order today, they’d get theirs January 2019, eight months later.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      If you make a reservation now, the wait time will be only 8 months?

      Hmmm, I’m pretty sure Elon has indicated the wait time for new reservations is longer than a year. A couple of years is probably a far more realistic estimate.

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