Tesla Might Have Over 1,230 Semi Reservations

Tesla Semi

DEC 11 2017 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 58

If reservation numbers are sequential, there’s a chance that Tesla has logged over 1,230 Semi reservations to date.

As we’ve previously reported, Tesla (or other corporations placing Semi orders) have made it publicly known that Semi reservations are at least as high as 190 units. However, those are just publicly announced figures. Surely there’s a lot more orders that for one of several reasons have remained out of the spotlight.

Now it seems we may have a solid grasp on the actual reservation figures, provided reservations numbers are sequential.

Check out this Instragram post from Elemental Landscapes LTD. It appears to show that the company has reservation #1,230 for the Tesla Semi:

If in fact Tesla has that number of order or more, than the automaker is sitting on at least some $24.6 million  in reservation cash (provided all the reservations are for the lesser non Founder’s Series Semi) or up to some $246 million if all reservations to date are for the Founder’s Series. That amount of money will go a long way in funding such actions as tooling up for more Model 3 production and/or refreshing the Model S.

Source: Instagram via Green Car Reports

Categories: Tesla, Trucks

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58 Comments on "Tesla Might Have Over 1,230 Semi Reservations"

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There was a picture of a Tesla Pick-Up Truck.

When are we going to hear more about that?

When it is more than an art project in some SolidWorks design studio, is my guess. 18 months before the next vehicle announcement. It will be the Y. Then the pickup.

This is a no brainer. Walmart can even save the cost of electricity if it puts solar panels on the roof of ever facility. The average area is 97,00 sq meters. This is enough to produce at least 40 MWh per day. If the average Semi needs 1 MWh then there is enough for FORTY trucks to charge every day!

Walmart in San Diego has solar panels covering the parking lot. Not sure if they’re enough to cover the stores and truck, though. But it sure is nice to park under shade.

I hope the food prices will go down.

This could be a “smart move” now…and the “only way to go” in five years if they want to remain competitive…I can’t imagine any company ordering a Diesel Semi in 5/7 years…I would be suicidal

Quite the opposite…First Tesla doesn’t even have sleepers so if you need a sleeper you can’t even use the Tesla…Next we have to wonder about both the 1M mile warranty and the $.07/mile guarantee and how long they’ll be around…

Lastly like I’ll say in another comment, the other problem is the legacy semi maker may scramble to improve efficiencies…Various reports are that a lot of Tesla’s aero tricks are already out there and could be added to ICE…Things like a “super single” tires vs dual tires reportedly offers a 3% efficiency advantage…So what if a legacy semi maker in two years could to improve the MPG by 20-40%? Now Tesla loses a lot of its cost advantage…I believe there will be a day when semis are all electric but believe it’s well over a decade…

Nah. Tesla or others can make a cab with a sleeper. That’s not much of a hurdle. And I do think that diesel semis are doomed fairly soon. I think the main limitation is going to be how fast Tesla and other makers of electric semis can ramp up production. The ramp up will be constrained by battery supply. Still, I’m guessing that in 10 years more (ie more than 90%) of all newly-sold semis in the US will be electric.

But it’s still a better truck for 500 mile or less runs

Yes but also costs more…If you don’t drive hundreds of miles a day and it may be many more years before the payback period…

The largest savings is the “convey” mode which has one lead truck and driver then two driverless trucks since you save on not paying three drivers…Now this is yet to be even legal and you still need to ensure Megachargers are on your route…

With high up front costs and low costs per mile, the longer the drive, the bigger the advantage of the Tesla.
Tesla worse case scenario was a short run. Tesla best case scenario is a coast-to-coast.

The $0.07 per kWh is quite high in the long run. This is RE and the prices for RE are falling fast.

The efficiency of diesel semi’s is at its top. They have been competing on cost per mile for decades. Tesla might inspire them to try some new ideas, but more than 2%-3% is unlikely.

A Tesla semi is (hours) sooner on its destination, saves 20% or more on energy, is saver, has a higher availability.

In an industry where they compete on price with 3%-5% difference, a competitor that can double his margin and undercut you at 10% is unbeatable.

In a few years the choice will be getting a Tesla or quitting the business. That is how big the difference between Tesla and the competition is.

Once automated driving is a reality, there won’t be a need for a sleeper. This vehicle has the potential to completely disrupt the trucking industry! You are likely right that it could be 10 years from now, but it seems to be inevitable.

None of the Walmarts in Sunny Phoenix Arizona have an Solar panels.
With their big size they only ordered 12 Tesla Semi’s so far. More will follow once they save money.

Only ordered 12 so far?
Funny, I was sure I read it was 15, and 10 of those were for Canada, with just 5 for the USA!

First things first. Evaluation range and charging tests with their own cargo.

I’m sure delivering on the specs is part of these reservation deals. Since Elon Musk calls these specs “worse case scenario’s” that should be no problem.

Lots of Skeptics about the Semi, but even then, some are willing to put their name out there as trusting these Vehicle Specs enough to lead!

Next step we need to see, is Mega Charger installations beginning, and Fleet Destination Chargers getting installed for the Semi, to answer the question: “Where will these Trucks Charge?” Then the order rate will increase!

Outside of that, regarding Founders Series, is that option no longer available on Tesla’s website? If not, it gives credence to the order number being 1230, as the Founders Series, as I understand, is the 1st 1,000 Vehicles, same as for the Roadster!

If the option to reserve a Founders Series Semi is no more, it would be a solid indicator that they have sold 1,000+ Reservations, of which 1,000 have paid the $200,000 fee! That would be $200 Million in their account at Tesla!

Plus $250 million for the Roadster II. Not a bad couple of weeks.
You gonna get one? I’m sure it will not be the nightmare your first one was.

Two part question, how many semi’s are going to Tesla/SpaceX/Boring/etc and are those included in the 1230 figure?

Tesla certainly would not be charging itself reservation fees!

SpaceX? Maybe, maybe not.

The Boring Company? I very seriously doubt that appendage of Elon’s ego would need its own semi trucks, and won’t unless it grows much, much bigger. If such a need arose, they could just borrow one or two from SpaceX or Tesla, as needed.

“that appendage of Elon’s ego”
No it isn’t for ego.
Elon is maximizing usefulness of its enterprises with always Mars on his mind and in the boring company case there is an obvious link with Mars in the sense that you will need to make tunnels underground since most of the living place will be located there to avoid radiations. Tunnels will be used to connect spaces, to provide space on their own and to provide safe access to sometimes far located resources or deep located resources like underground water. Tunnels can also serve as free pressurization, free temperature buffering, storage tank for water, for aquaculture, for liquid hydrogen, liquid methane and liquid oxygen. A boring machine is kind of a must on Mars and on other places as well like the Moon.

I doubt Tesla would be reserving that many. A fleet of 20 could handle the transport of 500,000 battery packs per year from GF1 to Fremont. More likely is they use the truckers using Tesla semis. That makes the balance sheet look much better and is consistent with their current practice.

Incidentally I drove to SCal on Friday and was passed by half a dozen semis transporting Teslas. I asked a driver at a rest stop where he was headed and he said South Carolina. They didn’t seem to want to talk and abruptly departed as soon as I started taking pictures.

“half a dozen semis transporting Teslas”

Were these ICE Semi’s transporting Tesla Semi’s?

They were diesel not ICE. They were transporting mainly Model S.

Oooops! “They were Diesel, not ICE”…what made you think a Diesel was not an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)?

Imagine the founders series Semi and Roadster. Those 2*1000 vehicles will bring in another $4,5 billion in interest free cash.

By the way. In the reservation number it is likely that the first 1000 are just that, founders serie. So that the regular reservations starts from the number 1000.

It’s hard for me to understand why any commercial trucking fleet would pay the vanity price for a “Founders’ Series” truck. Commercial trucks are for work, not for show.

I suppose it’s possible that Wal*Mart and a few other companies which advertise their “green cred” might want a few for publicity purposes, but I think it’s safe to assume that very few of the paid reservations are for Founders’ Series trucks. I expect that most of the Founders’ Series will be used by Tesla itself, to advertise the truck.

Founders Series are probably made first, so it could make sense to pay extra to get an early copy.

Because the sooner you get your Electric semi, the sooner you start saving costs on diesel, oil, spark plugs…makes sense to me

Spark plugs LOL 🙂

ROFLOL!

GSP

Compression is what self ignites the fuel in the diesel, though for cold weather starts diesels have glow plugs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXVJG9n6BAs

If I were reserving let’s say 50 semi’s I would want 5 of them or so to be founders edition to get them early on and test them out.

I guess the combination of green cred and getting first in line will sell a lot of founders edition.

But they will definitely not go as fast as the 1000 Roadster 2.0 founders edition, that’s for sure.

You are off an order of magnitude. (one zero too many)

I am. I was thinking in a different currency. 😛 $450 million and ~4,5 billion SEK. S*** happens, thank you for correcting.

Well, we knew that Tesla had been in private talks with fleet operators well before the Reveal, so it’s not surprising that the number of reservations is higher than the 190 publicly reported ones. But I admit 1230 is a lot higher than I expected this early, when — so far as I know — no real-world testing by actual trucking fleet operators has yet occurred.

Go Tesla!

This is nothing. Nikola One has 7,000 reservations:
https://insideevs.com/nikola-motor-logs-7000-pre-orders-for-nikola-one-electric-semi-truck/

Clearly, the Tesla Semi is a total flop. Well, that is what Bob Lutz would say, right?

This is what Nicola promises it’s customers:

“The Nikola One truck leasing program costs $4000 to $5000 per month, depending on which truck configuration and options the customer chooses. The first million miles of fuel is included with every truck sale, offsetting 100% of the monthly lease for every owner.”

Now who would say no to a truck at a price they would normally spend on fuel alone? Now there is just the little matter of Nicola actually delivering on this promise that includes widespread, high capacity and extremely expensive hydrogen infrastructure. !

Which isn’t going to happen unless Big Oil companies come in and subsidize the H2 or they can get the govt to do it for them (always a possibility with the Trumpster’s kleptocracy I suppose).

I see one reservation number in the picture, but the quantity actually says 3 vehicles.
So if one number can perhaps be several vehicles, the total count could be way higher, considering that only few of the recent public announcements were for a single Semi, and not every fleet manager plays with open cards, i.e. press releases, so there might be larger orders hidden in there somewhere. Guess we have to wait for the next investors call, perhaps someone will ask and maybe Tesla will give a number.

Well observed!

Unless it is shorthand for 1230, 1231, and 1232.

I think the numbers are probably already in the low thousands. It’s a seminal change in the trucking industry and you want to be a part of it.

My daughter’s Social Security Number indicates over 6 billion people have been born in the USA.

That’s not how that works.

https://www.ssa.gov/employer/stateweb.htm

Well, yes. That’s my point.

Counting reservation numbers is as useful as counting VINs (which has led Electrek Fred and others to make forecasts that weren’t even close). The numbers aren’t random, but they aren’t sequential starting at 1, either.

If Semi reservations are strong, Tesla will tell us soon. If not, they’ll stick to their policy of “we don’t break out customer deposits by specific model”.

We do no nothing.

If the counter is incremented with every confirmed reservation and it did start at zero, then there are probably 1230 companies which made a reservation.

More likely, the counter is incremented every time a fan boy played with the reservation tool. In that case it tells us nothing.

Least likely there is one reservation for each semi-vehicle, in that case this company would actually have three reservation numbers.

What it does tell us, is that there is definitely interest, but not if this interest is from fan boys or serious companies.

You have to be a fortunate fan boy to put a $20.000 deposit only to gate a Reservation Serial Number only to help Tesla to show up good numbers…

On the day of the reveal it was $5K to reserve but the MSRP wasn’t yet listed so it could be quite a risk to reserve without knowing the price but it was refundable…

However, to your point, I believe there will be less than a 100 civilians who are willing to put $20K down on a Tesla Semi…

It’s pretty common, even when using sequential numbers, to start at something more than one, just because it makes the number look less pathetic.

My guess is they started at 1001 and this is really #229.

That is a real possibility, in part for the reasons you mentioned, or, since the image shows these are ‘Regular Semi’ deposits (Reservations @ $20,000.00), one of 2 other ideas may be in play: A) ALL Regular Ordered Reservations simply Start at 1001, leaving #1 to #1000 as ‘Reserved Slots’, only for the 1,000 Founders Series, no matter when they are received over the next 2 years, or B) Tesla has already Filled the full 1,000 Slots for the Founders Series!

If ‘B’, then this is indeed #1230 (1,230) Reservations to date!

If ‘A’, then this is just how many ‘Regular Semi’ Reservations to date, plus an unknown # of Founders Series Reservations!

{Possability C: none of the above, since each reservation might be an Order Sequence #, not the Truck Vin Sequence #? That image Does Not State VIN#, but rather ‘Reservation #’, so, as this was for 3 Semi’s, and we know of orders for 10, 15, 25, 40, & 50, there ‘Could’ be multiple Thousands of Semi Units Reservations already On the Books!}

Oh the Joy of Deciphering all these bits of info!
?????!

OK! I just checked Tesla’s website: https://www.tesla.com/semi/ and they are still marketing the Founders Series, and Still accepting the Full $200,000 US$ ($267,000 CAN$) Reservations!

So, it would seem those are not yet sold out!

@Doggydogworld, the French Social Security Number has 13 digits. Some are for where you was born, France or abroad, there is code for each “department” (an administrative unity in France), for the year you when you was born, for the month, for your sex, etc… I don’t think that the Tesla Semi reservation number reflects the sex of the clients…LOL

If this truck works as well as they say – I will be shocked, and tell them to make a sleeper version too.
They would not be able to meet demand.

I can’t help thinking there must be something wrong with it.

Do they plan to make other trucks then semi?

I also wonder how much of the parts they make themselves, and what they buy from suppliers.

What kind of telemetry system do they plan to sell with it?
Do they offer road condition data, so it can be shared with others?

Do they offer real time charger data, so a truck can see if there are trucks waiting to charge on any giving charger

Do they plan to offer wireless charging, as an option?

Where are they going to manufacture this?

Do they plan a bus as well?

You can rest assured knowing that there will be a sleeper version of the truck. They plan to make a pickup truck in addition to the semi. Tesla uses a mix of in-house and outsourced components. They’re well known for getting frustrated with third party suppliers and deciding to make the parts themselves. This is called vertical integration. Telemetry will be similar to what’s in the current Model S, X, and 3. The system is two screens from a Model 3. Tesla’s telemetry will integrate with fleet management systems. Tesla does offer real time charger data on their navigation systems. Each charging location shows a segmented illustration of how many chargers are in use as well as other notes like equipment that is out of service. Wireless charging is probably not going to be offered in the near future due to its inefficiencies. That wasted energy turns into heat. When you’re talking about 1 megawatt charging, wireless charging would generate a lot of waste heat. They are most likely going to manufacture the Semi at Gigafactory 1 in Sparks, Nevada. No plans on a bus that we’re aware of. Protera and others already have a pretty good handle on the… Read more »

GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY DIESELS ONE ORDER AT A TIME CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS