Tesla: Market Cap Rises To 88 Percent Of Ford’s $49 Billion


Tesla gets top marks from consumers in satisfaction (San Francisco store shown).

Tesla gets top marks from Consumer Reports’ 2016 Annual Owner Satisfaction Survey (San Francisco store shown).

Tesla Model 3

The Model 3 is due for production in the middle of 2017 and Tesla hopes to produce 500,000 vehicles per year after 2018

Ford stock has fallen 23 percent from 2015-2017, and now sits at $12.65 per share. Tesla stock is on the rise, approaching an all time high, at about $281 right now. This accounts for a market share of $43 billion for the electric startup, compared to Ford’s $49 billion.

Tesla made a little over 80,000 cars last year and has sold about 191,000 vehicles to date. Ford built over 6.5 million vehicles last year and is approaching 400 million sold since its inception.

Does it all boil down to customer satisfaction and impressed, confident investors?

Some investors believe that Tesla stock is overvalued. However, there have been many positive reports as of late, and the rise continues, despite the recent presidential election. Tesla’s current stock price is on par with 2014 and 2015 numbers and the market cap is said to be resilient.

Perhaps it’s because Tesla is much more than just an automaker. The company is an outlier, as it is the first successful U.S. automaker in 113 years (since Ford ironically). It’s an electric-only car company. It’s the foremost company for self-driving technology, and let’s not forget about the solar energy, solar roofs, Powerwalls, and Powerpacks. Oh … and Superchargers. The automaker is destined to be future-proof.

Consumer Reports’ 2016 Annual Owner Satisfaction Survey chose Tesla as the number one company. According to the publication, 91 percent of Tesla owners would purchase from the automaker again. Ford is 15th on the list of 29 automakers.

Ford has seemingly just begun to “see the light.” The company is now investing in artificial intelligence, autonomous technology, and ride-sharing. Ford makes a few electric cars as well, but the company doesn’t advertise them, nor can any of them come even close to competing with rivals’ current or future offerings. Ford’s plans for long range electric cars and its self-driving pursuits are set for 2020 or 2021.

Maybe this is due to the fact that Ford CEO Mark Fields is a key advocate for relaxing emissions standards and his company wants to persuade other automakers to use data to realize that hybrids and plug-ins are a better option than all-electric vehicles. Maybe investors just aren’t buying it. Maybe Ford isn’t future-proof. Hmm …

Source: Teslarati

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65 Comments on "Tesla: Market Cap Rises To 88 Percent Of Ford’s $49 Billion"

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Tough times for the shorters. Speaking of which, I haven’t seen Mark Spiegel around in a while…

Ford stock is Quantity Not quality . Billions of shares small value. Ford Sucks.

Kind of like their cars then.


Ride the wave while it lasts. There is nothing “future proof” about Tesla. The stock market in general is overheated right now. remember Pets.com and Webvan.com? Everybody thought those shares were the golden bomb too.

The crash is coming people, get ready. When it does come, Tesla and all of Musk’s enterprises will be on the ropes. Of them, Space X is the most suited to survive because I think even in a bad recession, we will need stuff to go to space.

I have no doubt that Tesla will have its ups and downs but IMO if it were to suffer a crash for what ever reason it is most likely to be split up and sold. Panasonic is not going to just let Tesla disappear into thin air. I think the market capitalization is actually a pretty fair representation of the value of Tesla. They are right at the front of electric vehicles, home storage and solar. These are very attractive industries with a lot of growth potential. I dare say a company like BP or maybe someone like Eon would be very keen to purchase Tesla if the price was right. It would be very expensive to catch Tesla from a standing start right now. If Ford went belly up who would want it? The brand isn’t that sought after, it has a lot of assets but really how much is a 2nd hand car factory worth? I suspect most car manufactures would rather Ford left the market rather than for them to take it over. Ford would have to be seriously undervalued before someone tried to take it over. It won’t provide anything other than more mass there is… Read more »

I’d just like to add, Ford isn’t a bad company or in dire straights it is just not got any advantage in any of the fast growing markets. Ten years from now Ford will be a little bigger or a little smaller but it won’t change dramatically. Tesla (or what ever it becomes) should be huge.

“Perhaps it’s because Tesla is much more than just an automaker.”
What a nice pump. Perhaps it is a Jack of all trades, master of none. With a dilettante CEO who also makes lots of false promises and resorts to false advertising to make few more sales.

So, not only are you the world’s worst stock shorter — buying a volatile stock like TSLA when the price is on its way up — waaaay up! — instead of when it’s on its way down; you also think “dilettante” is a synonym for “workaholic”!

I’m not sure which of those is the more clueless.


Either Tesla is too expensive or Ford is too cheap. Probably both.

Quite the opposite is true.

Tesla is grotesquely undervalued while Ford is grotesquely overvalued.

Ford is whistling Dixie on the road to bankruptcy.

TSLA is peaking on expectations of Model 3. It has nowhere to go but down.

The Model 3 is just the beginning. Follow-ups include (but are not limited to):

Model Y CUV
Gen II Roadster
Tesla Pickup

Sounds like you don’t know much about Tesla. How many shares have you shorted?

The Tesla the value is expensive because the added in the future growth, ford don’t have the capacity of growth than tesla have.

Ford..Fix Or Repair Daily = Ford… Dead in the water nowhere to go but down…They had their turn.

“The company is an outlier, as it is the first successful U.S. automaker in 113 years (since Ford ironically).”


With all due respect, the jury is still out on that.

They survived on capital raise after capital raise (not surprising given cap-ex intensive nature of car industry).

February 2012 reminder: ” $TSLA does not need to ever raise another funding round” Musk said back then.

A successful Tesla would be mature, generate cash (maybe even a dividend) and make a profit.

The jury is still out on that for 1-2 decades.

In the meantime, Tesla could be sold for pennies on the dollar or fail altogether – especially in a downturn / recession.

That^s when cyclical automakers struggle the most – and Tesla has struggling SCTY attached to its balance sheet now (requiring more cash and rooftop solar getting squeezed by large solar farms).

FORD…., “The Next Kodak”

Clueless, as always, eh?

“FORD…., “The Next Kodak””

Because Ford is unable to order cells from Samsung, LG, Panasonic or CATL (or insert your supplier here) when more EVs are demanded?

Meanwhile Tesla (even with wildest projections) is at a 1% marketshare by 2020.

In general, tech and CE analogies (Nokia and smartphones, Kodak and digital cameras etc.) and timelines don’t work in the car sector.

It takes decades (not years or months) to really shift marketshare in the car sector.

Slow replacement cycles, higher cap-ex per unit of revenue etc. etc.

Every time Ford contracts out their EV’s to Magna, and gives them a roller and Magna does all the rest, Magna pockets the profits. And it just isn’t the batteries that Ford loses the profits on, it is much, much more than that.

There is a lot of BS about EV’s supposedly being huge money losers. But the approach that Ford has taken is by far the hardest path to EV profits. They have to pay Magna for a huge percentage of the work, and then if Ford drops cash on the hood in sales incentives, that all comes out of Ford’s pocket.

Well, other large companies won’t. They build their own EVs. Maybe Ford will too as volumes grow.

We will see which strategy is best on the insourcing vs outsourcing scale.

Even TSLA doesn’t make their own cells, they buy them from Panasonic.

Pana, LG, Samsung, BYD, Lishen, CATL etc. are happy to supply cells to car makers.

The rest of the car production know-how is well-known to car makers and their suppliers (including battery modules, packs and associated BMS….).

“Even TSLA doesn’t make their own cells, they buy them from Panasonic.”

Clearly you missed the news that the Gigafactory went online building batteries way back in December. Do you seriously not know what Tesla is doing at all?

You don’t even know that portions of the plant are operated by PANaSONIC?

Instead of shipping the cells from Japan they simply hand them over a few yards to the Tesla portion.

That’s important legally, there are P portions of the plant and T portions (lines inside the plant).

Your answer shows me that you aren’t familiar with contracts and ownership structure in the Gigafactory.

PS: You do know the difference between CELLS (what Panasonic does) and the rest of the battery (what Tesla does)?

Tesla is the car of z future.

tftf repeated his FUD yet again:

“Tesla could be sold for pennies on the dollar or fail altogether…”

Currently that would be exactly 27,926 pennies on the dollar. 😛

tftf, you’ve been repeating this literally thousands of times every year, for some several years now, on Seeking Alpha and other places on the Internet. I’d have thought by now, you’d have gotten tired of being proven wrong so very frequently and so very thoroughly.

Just how much money have you lost over the years, betting against Tesla?

Just to add a bit more… I’m way bullish when it comes to Tesla, I think they will be a tremendous success, but there is way way too much hype in this company and stock right now and nothing justifies 88% of Ford’s market cap. Even if you make the argument that their business is more diverse with things like solar city and battery storage being part of the model, but as it stands right now, they are primarily a car company, and even at that, they are a company that cannot even begin to sell enough cars to compete with Ford or other major auto manufacturers. Even at their wildest production estimates they are pumping out 500k cars a year? maybe? In order to justify this valuation, their solar production would have to be 5x what it is now, they’d have to prove that they can make and sell 1M cars a year, and they would have to prove that battery storage is a potential profit machine. Add to this the fact that with EVs, the length of car ownership will extend, and with autonomous driving and the rise of UBER and other ride sharing companies, you’ll have a… Read more »

Tesla has a huge potential but it’s certainly far from a guaranteed success. Tesla has done some things really well and some not so well. The model S is awesome, the supercharging network is a winning move. The SolarCity merger not so much. The jury is still out if the Gigafactory is a great move, I suspect it is.

However, I think Tesla’s window of opportunity is slowly closing. They really need to start churning out cars now. The Bolt beat Tesla on their home turf by delivering a (somewhat) affordable long range EV. Any significant delay of the 3 is going to hurt Tesla badly. Also on the top end the established manufacturers will be coming out with their own 300+ mile high end EVs in 2018-2020. Volvo, Jaguar, VW, Mercedes and more will have cars that will challenge Tesla for real. Tesla must start showing a profit from car sales (that would be a net profit, not gross) soon or it will be game over.

“February 2012 reminder: ” $TSLA does not need to ever raise another funding round” Musk said back then.”

That of course didn’t happen. Tesla had to raise billions between that date and today.

And before Tesla bulls scream “Growth company”, these investments diluted the company and raised risk and debt.

The share count is one reason why Tesla’s market cap is approaching Ford’s – and passed that of Nissan recently.

Which makes no sense imho given Nissan’s EV sales and outlook:


10 million cars, sales leader in EVs, stakes in Renault and Mitsubishi…generating billions in profit – but market cap smaller than Tesla ?! Right.

PS: And yes, I’m short Tesla. Unlike certain EV blogs *cough Electrek* who own Tesla shares and report that the sky is super-bright quoting investors that Tesla may be worth one trillion $ by 2025.

That’s trillion with a T.

Yes, I see that an article on Tesla and its value has attracted serial Tesla-basher tftf again to come here and again attempt to carpet-bomb his pathetic anti-Tesla FUD.

No dice tftf.

The market has spoken.

The big institutional investors see Tesla as a tremendous growth opportunity as the penultimate disruptive tech/company in automobiles/personal mobility and making all the right moves compared to another laggard legacy OEM that offers virtually nothing new for future growth and has HUGE potential stranded assets.

Have fun going broke.

Get Real, why don’t you dispute any of my arguments? “FUD” is a tired response when there’s no answer discussing my argument ?

Did you look at Nissan’s numbers (see my link above)?

And Nissan’s unique positioning in EVs (and now PHEVs, thanks to Mitsubishi joining the alliance)?

Why should Tesla be worth more than a proftibable Nissan-Renault-Mitsu selling 10M cars and a leadership in EVs?

PS: I’m aware that proper valuation should take into account Enterprise Value, not just market cap. But let’s keep things simple and just compare market caps…

tftf said “PS: I’m aware that proper valuation should take into account Enterprise Value, not just market cap. But let’s keep things simple and just compare market caps”

I see that knowing the comparison is a false comparison doesn’t stop you from using it to attack Tesla anyways…..

But thanks for admitting your own attacks are built upon a grossly incomplete comparison.

Do you think that by comparing Enterprise Value Tesla would look better?

LOL. Besides, market cap is used all the time by analysts to compare publicly traded companies.

I just added the disclaimer for people interested in all the gritty details.

Here are the explanations and numbers:

“Think of enterprise value as the theoretical takeover price. It is more comprehensive than market capitalization (market cap), which only includes common equity. Enterprise Value is calculated as the market cap plus debt and minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.”

“EV/EBITDA ratio is calculated as enterprise value divided by its EBITDA. As of today, Tesla Inc’s enterprise value is $44,641 Mil. Tesla Inc’s earnings before depreciation and amortization for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Sep. 2016 was $83 Mil. Therefore, Tesla Inc’s EV/EBITDA ratio for today is 538.44.”


I didn’t say that Enterprise Value was the end-all of comparisons. Enterprise Value also has its own faults, such as it being a backward-looking measure of a company, and completely fails to account for a company’s growth.

And TSLA is a massive growth company. None of the companies you have spoken about have anywhere near the rocket-like growth that Tesla has seen in the last few years.

If you want to compare TSLA to a fellow automotive growth stock, please produce such a stock and we can compare values.

“And TSLA is a massive growth company”

It’s already valued at more than Nissan.

Don’t you think all these growth scenarios, possible profits (or DCF) are long accounted for?

What about execution risk?

What about all the incumbents not just dropping out and vanish?

What about dilution (because cap-ex needs are so high in the car sector)?

What about SCTY dragging down TSLA for years to come?

Like I said bring me an automotive company growing as fast as Tesla, then we can start looking at how to make a valid comparison, after adjusting for such things as dealerships, etc. Let me know when you have that company. As for risk, my god, did you just realize that running a company involves risk? Say it isn’t so!! /sarc As for Solar City, their entire business model just did a 180, with the Solar Roof only months away from sales in California, moving east by December. Tesla has brought the inverters for Solar City in-house, building them based upon Model 3 inverters designed a year ago from the ground up with 25% improvement over Tesla’s previous inverters. (all sources previously posted – ibid) Sadly, you know none of this, and don’t actually understand that Tesla Energy is raking in big bucks for Tesla, building out huge grid-level battery backup facilities. Tesla’s automotive side Model 3 spending will actually be carried by Tesla’s various non-automotive profit centers. How tight are those shorts getting? Your little list stinks of desperation. Go ahead, show me more about how desperate you are to find something negative to say about Tesla.

“Like I said bring me an automotive company growing as fast as Tesla….”

Useless, of course it’s easier to grow faster starting from a small absolute number base.

The hard part is making the mass-market Model3 with high QA, good margins and on time. Tesla has poven none of that yet – large car makers do this for decades.

And my main question still is why Tesla should be worth more than Nissan or other car-maker with a full EV portfolio in 5-10 years.

(Especially Nissan since they outsell Tesla in EVs).

As for SCTY inverters: They split with SEDG – before that Tesla split with MBLY on Autopilot. Tesla keeps breaking up with strategic partners, not a good sign.

Keep believing that moving everything inhouse somehow raises their net profit down the road…SEDG knows how to build good inverters and related HW:


And the fact remains that large (cheaper) solar farms are eating residential solar. SCTY business model is broken and low-margin – be it lease or sales.

“That’s trillion with a T.”

I too think that’s conservative.


Still bvtt-hurt about being laughed off of Elektrek forums I see….

tftf said:

“And yes, I’m short Tesla.”

You should form a self-help group with Mark B. Spiegel, zzzzzzzzzz, “Four Electrics”, DonC, and a few others. Help each other with your gambling problem.

You see, tftf, the goal for short-selling is to buy when the stock price is high — for example, now — and sell when it’s low. Not to buy in at any old price and stubbornly stick to it no matter how high the price goes, which apparently is what you’re doing.

Since you’re not doing that, I can only conclude that you have a serious gambling addiction.

The Feb. 2012 quote was specifically in the context of the Model S. This reminds me of the often misquoted Oct 9 2016 Elon tweet where he said:

“Would also like to correct expectations that Tesla/SolarCity will need to raise equity or corp debt in Q4. Won’t be necessary for either.”

And everybody ignored the pivotal “IN Q4” context, and keep pretending that Elon said TSLA was going to raise equity at all.


Funny how you later admit that comparing market cap was not the right way to compare companies, yet you do exactly that in this post….

No need to defeat your point, when you’ve already admitted it is based on an improper comparison already.

Maybe it’s time for Tesla to do a 2 for 1 stock split.


“Tesla stock is on the rise, approaching an all time high, at about $281 right now”
This is when I buy, right?

Yes, when the overall market is at all-time highs (just like in 1999 and then for some stocks in 2007) it’s time to buy 😉

/Sarcasm alert.

And double-down when investors appear on CNBC and predict that Tesla may be worth a TRILLION $ within a decade.

/Sarcasm alert.

PS: For a quick comparison, not even Apple (the most profitable/valuable publlic company EVER at the moment) is worth that much – not by a long shot. AAPL ‘s mkt cap is around $700B at the moment – and remember we are in bull market cycle since 2009, few of those lasted longer.

PPS: Admittedly, spring 2009 was a low base to start coming from a severe downturn in 2008 so the current cycle might last longer than historical averages.

Is that your valued opinion? Oh wait, I suppose first we will have to determine if it is off any value.
So we will see in a decade or so if your were correct. Of course most people, if they are wise, will forget about what you have said in 5 minutes.

Tesla drops as Citron reveals short position Tesla drops as Citron reveals short position
Tuesday, 1 Mar 2016 | 2:32 PM ET
Tesla Motors shares slid Tuesday as Citron Research revealed a short position in the electric automaker’s stock.

In a tweet, the short-selling firm contended that Tesla shares could fall to roughly half their current value by the end of the year due to supply and demand problems. The “news flow all around does not look good” for Tesla, Citron wrote.

Famous analyst predictions that were not very good. Lest we forget.

“Citron Research @CitronResearch
Citron shorting $TSLA Supply AND demand problems should take down to $100 by years end. News flow all around does not look good for stock
1:26 PM – 1 Mar 2016”

Ford is mismanaged. CEO Mark Fields is a dud if you want to be a market leader. He has no vision. He is too wrapped up in politics of the Republican party, and the oil industry to be an effective person at leading a company into the future. Their stock price reflects their future ability.

Does anybody have any Tesla stock I can borrow? I promise to give it back.

Trying to compare F and TSLA in this way is a mistake. For example, Ford has been ramping up their dividends, and that actually depresses stock price, because you are no longer effectively reinvesting that cash into your investment. Ford Year-end Yields (dividends) for 2011-2016 1.54% 2.59% 3.23% 4.26% 7.01% Meanwhile Tesla does not give out dividends. Also, Ford doesn’t own their distribution layer (local dealerships), so while Ford makes millions of cars, they hand the profits for actually making sales to consumers over to their dealerships. Tesla on the other hand owns the entire business from end to end, so they keep a larger share of the money that comes in from each car sale than does Ford. In fact, Tesla has been increasingly keeping more and more of the money that comes from selling each car, by expanding and bringing more of the parts in-house, including things like buying a company that builds manufacturing robots, and building huge grid level storage, etc. While Ford has done the opposite, spinning off companies like Associates First Capital, and selling off entire brands of cars, and mortgaging off their factories and IP to raise close to $20 billion. Remember, when you… Read more »

Ability to pay dividend is a plus for stock price. Tesla obviously cannot pay a dividend because it is not making any profit.

Tesla is not making money from selling each car, so it cannot keep “more and more of the money” in house.

You need to take a class in accounting 101 and read Tesla financial reports to see where they are.

Yes, paying a dividend does indeed make a stock more popular to investors. You noted a market pressure that influences how popular a stock is, and I noted a stock fundamental that dilutes the value of each share. Cash that is handed out to shareholders, is cash that is no longer on the books for valuing the stock going forward the day after the dividend is issued. There is no contradiction. One does not invalidate the other. If you are not aware of this relationship, please do your research. You clearly don’t understand the concept I’ve posted about. When Tesla sells a Model S for 100K, Tesla keeps a significant percent of that 100K sale for themselves (this is regardless of profit). When Ford sells a car, they don’t sell it to a consumer. They wholesale it to a Dealership. If a Ford dealership sells a 100K car, Ford may only get 90K out of the sale. The dealership takes the rest. If Ford contracted Magna to build a 100K EV like Magna has done for previous EV’s, Ford then takes a large chunk of that money and hands it to Magna, who built the EV for Ford. Then they… Read more »

agzand said:

“Tesla obviously cannot pay a dividend because it is not making any profit.”

Or maybe Tesla has chosen not to pay dividends because it’s investing revenue in growth.

“Tesla is not making money from selling each car…”

Nope. Tesla’s gross profit margin from selling cars is substantially higher than the industry average.

“You need to take a class in accounting 101…”

Somehow I doubt they teach you enough to properly evaluate whether GAAP or non-GAAP accounting methods are more appropriate for a given company in Accounting 101.

“…and read Tesla financial reports to see where they are.”

Seriously, you’re telling Nix he needs to read Tesla financial reports? Do you also lecture your grandmother on the proper technique for sucking eggs?

PS I don’t like Ford shares because of huge debt, but that doesn’t make your assertions true. Ford is still much less likely to fail due to their debt than Tesla. S&P rates Ford as BBB but Tesla is B- (might have changed recently, I didn’t check the latest ratings).

Then I’m not sure you actually read my whole post. Because I covered how Ford’s huge debt pushes down the value of Ford stock. And that is one of the reasons why just comparing market cap is a mistake, because market cap doesn’t account for debt. You just validated what I posted. You and other investors don’t like F because of the debt load, that drives down F share value. ——————————– Tesla is not facing bankruptcy due to their debt. Just like the typical homeowner isn’t facing bankruptcy just because they happen to have a mortgage. Don’t be silly. Also, S&P’s rating on Tesla is an UNSOLICITED rating, and hasn’t proven to be an accurate predictor of either Tesla risk, or Tesla rates. In case you don’t know, how S&P ratings usually work is that Ford (or some other company) goes to S&P and pays S&P a big chunk of money to get them to rate their debt. Then Ford opens up their books to S&P, and then S&P publishs a rating. Ford then takes that rating to investors in order to justify the rates Ford is offering. Is is a sales tool. Tesla gave all the rating agencies the… Read more »

Casting pearls of wisdom…at the feet of those that will not be pick them up.

FORD…., “The Next Kodak”

Tesla the next Yahoo, AOL,…

Since you don’t know Jack please keep on shorting it!

I thought Jack fell down and broke his crown…maybe that was a different Jack, though this one seems to be off his rocker.

Ford is still trying to figure out how to fit enough 18650s into an 18 gallon tank to get a 300 mile bev.

I’ll just leave this right here: Ford made 10 Billion this past year and the year before, pays dividends on their stocks, has given their employees record profit sharing the last 2 years ($10k for 2015 and it will be $9k for 2016) and is the number one selling brand in America. Say what you will against them, but they certainly know how to do something right. They employee 56000 people and can certainly scale vehicle production at will. Nothing against Tesla but they will need quite some time before they are anywhere near Ford. No reason to bash an automaker that is actually moving in the right direction, even if it’s a bit slower than what we would like. Ford is investing in the future, because they have the money and the resources to do so. They don’t have everything riding only on the next model or only 1 production plant. Anyway you slice it Tesla is “currently” worth more than it should be. Let’s hope the next few years and models change that.

Model 3 will debut with all the usual pomp and fanfare but ultimately there will be no profits for TSLA. They will be bought in 3-5 years, probably by Uber or some mobility tech play to vertically integrate the production of electric taxi cabs. So, is the EV dream coming? Probably but you won’t make a dime by buying TSLA shares here and it won’t happen in the way you think it will.

It is actually the other way around. Tesla is breaking into Uber’s space, with plans to operate an all-Tesla Uber/Lyft style ride sharing app once the TM3 goes into production.

Uber will be losing market share to Tesla, not buying Tesla.

Ford doesn’t sell energy like Tesla.