Will Tesla Be The King Of Market Share In The Electric Car Revolution?


MAR 23 2017 BY EVANNEX 88

Tesla Model S


Bloomberg* recently analyzed the electric vehicle (EV) segment to forecast how it would impact the overall automotive industry in the coming years.

It’s reported that: “Electric cars are coming, but how fast and who will be run over? Electric vehicles may be a niche now at just over 1% of global auto sales, but some manufacturers predict they will represent up to 25% of their sales by 2025. A seismic shift like this could shake up the auto industry, even affecting oil companies.”

With Tesla [NASDAQ: TSLA] leading the electric vehicle movement, how will Elon Musk’s high-profile efforts transform the industry? And… how will Tesla’s competitors respond?

*This article comes to us courtesy of Evannex (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman.

Bloomberg notes one automaker that can provide further insight: “Ford expects a roughly even split between electric vehicle, hybrid and internal combustion engine offerings by 2030, based on its analysis of market forecasts, with EVs [forecasted at] 20% of sales by then.” For more insight into what other automakers are forecasting for electric vehicle targets (including Tesla), Bloomberg published the following chart below.

Auto manufacturer electric vehicle targets; Tesla is only manufacturer with 100% battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales goal (Source: Bloomberg*)

Nevertheless, these forecasts might be heavily influenced by government mandates relating to vehicle emissions policy. Europe may experience a large uptick in EV sales: “By 2025, 10-17% of EU car sales may have to be electric to meet emission rules.” It’s no wonder Tesla has shifted recent promotional efforts to the European market.

So how large could the European market become for electric vehicles?

“European automakers have aggressive electric vehicle (EV) sales targets, while their U.S. and Japanese peers generally have been more reticent [excluding Tesla]. The difference in strategy may reflect goals to take an early lead in what is expected to be a significant shift to EVs — or a desire to avoid costly mistakes given manufacturers’ inability to find a profitable way to sell EVs.”

Tesla Model X and Model S

Some manufacturers, like BYD and Tesla, don’t have this problem as their business model is already built around electric vehicles. Yet, even BYD still focuses a majority of it’s efforts on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Only Tesla has chosen a straightforward all-electric approach for it’s business — shunning the internal combustion engine and amalgam hybrid approaches altogether. In any event, with first-mover advantage, it’s likely Tesla will gain significant market share as the electric vehicle market becomes increasingly dominant in the coming years.


*Source: Bloomberg

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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88 Comments on "Will Tesla Be The King Of Market Share In The Electric Car Revolution?"

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The next article on this site (France EV market) includes:
“…while Tesla has yet to find a way to crack the French market, noting just 55 Model S and 12 Model X deliveries.”

Apparently not everyone is so keen on Tesla.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

Yes, being blind to the rest of the world will not help. Taking example of France, Currently 23 Renault Zoe are sold for every Tesla. It is as if GM would sell 25,000 Bolt EV every month in the US to put things in perspective. Now who cares about France ? Right, but then look at China. On top of this didn’t Musk say he is not interest in selling cheap cars ?

Tesla sells more Model S in France than Renault sells Zoes in the United States.

Tesla has had a hard time cracking France but does well in Belgium.

Tesla has had a hard time in Germany but does well in Austria and does extremely well in Switzerland.

Sometimes it is hard to swim against Nationalist currents.

Not everyone is a rational.

The Zoe isn’t available in the United States. A better comparison would be the Leaf would it not.

Very few Tesla stores in France; not even 1 in Paris… Mercedes, Citroën, Renault have a store on the Champs-Elysees: if Tesla had a store here, what a buzz!

And some in France have 300 miles to do to get a service in a Tesla garage. Poor network! In fact today there is 4 garages in France, 2 around Paris, 1 in Bordeaux, 1 in Aix en Provence. For the stores, 11 for the whole country! Just verify at tesla.com!

Not everyone is a rational.

Or, as Bertrand Russell put it-
“It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this.”

“Yes, being blind to the rest of the world will not help.”

I find it almost hysterically funny how Europeans complaining about American parochialism only manage to expose their own! 😆

Dude, your countries are about the size of our States, and many with similar populations. Tesla’s success won’t depend on its market in France, nor any other single country in Europe.

Europe being the center of the world ended in WW II. That was more than 70 years ago. It’s long past time for y’all to get over it.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

PP, I included China in my comment in case you did not notice, is China the size of one of your state ? Not last time I checked.

But you are right by being small countries in Europe it forces us to lift our gaze from our belly button and take a look outside, to travel to foreign countries, to speak many foreign languages. Thus we may be naturally inclined to look at the bigger picture. I wish I did not have to remind others to do the same as to spare my eyes of all the nonsense I read.

“Another (Euro)…” said:

“…by being small countries in Europe it forces us to lift our gaze from our belly button and take a look outside, to travel to foreign countries, to speak many foreign languages.”

And yet, despite your claimed better exposure to international culture, you still somehow apparently manage to believe that Tesla’s international market share will remain quite limited if it can’t capture a large portion of the French market.

Look, I’m certainly not going to claim that Americans in general are smarter or better educated or less foolish than Europeans… especially not after we elected El Trumpo as president! But you rather undercut your claims for being more worldly and cosmopolitan by your apparent belief that the world revolves around France.

I’ll skip the obvious chance to post a joke about the French here; you doubtless know more of them than I do! 😉

Nice. I recall the Allied powers saving France during WWII. Tesla will do fine in Europe in the long term, especially with in countries with gov’t incentives.

Normally we compare EU28 (soon to be EU27 after Brexit) sales to USA sales. That are comparable markets.

Thank you! I didn’t know the term EU28, with that Google was able to point me to EU sales stats. Now I can geek out!


USA? What is USA? Ah yes…this country in which the people thinks their are the gratest. USA ist just the biggest criminal country. Starts wars everywhere just to throw all other countries into war to make them weak. Further to claim all banks around the world for their tax reducing strategy, but the gratest tax reducing happens in Delaware

I think GM has done a great job with the Volt and Bolt. They sell decently despite any advertising. I suspect they simply exist for the sole purpose of hedging their bets. If Tesla takes off like a rocket, GM can easily respond by moving those drive trains to other more popular body styles, and can overtake Tesla in EV sales anytime they want. But we need Tesla to make that happen, otherwise they will be happy to sell their existing dinosaurs.

David – did you notice that GM and Ford were NOT on that list???? Curious or on purpose?

Maybe they didn’t post sales targets?

GM and Ford are dead

As far as I am concerned they are.

GM has sold more plugins in the US than Tesla. Ford isn’t far behind.

Agree 100%

But let us remind that Tesla is a Premium brand, it will hurt first other Premium brands like BMW, Audi, etc.

Others will not be so affected, but then again, if they don’t step up, the Chinese will come and eat their lunch.

No, GM doesn’t have access to the battery cells to do that. They can’t make much more than about 50,000 Bolts as it stands today and in 2018. Likely all the additional capacity in 2019 already spoken for, so they’ll have to scramble for 2020/2021.

I’d be willing to get that GM, Audi and others could spin up a battery supply deal faster than Tesla can spin up new factories.

For GM, who is now more US focused, the biggest factor will be profits. Americans will buy waaaaaaaaaaaaay more high profit gas pickups and SUVs than people buy electric cars with little to no profit. The US will not implement a gas tax to influence a change.

Sad but true…

Still takes time to build out the capacity. You can look at the timelines for LG, Samsung, SKI, and Panasonic on how long it takes to build gigawatt-hour sized plants.

Right now, if the money isn’t set and the construction hasn’t started, no new capacity until well into 2019 or 2020.

It doesn’t help GM if they don’t actually spend the money to get the new battery supply. They will not have access to the cells. Worse is that the remaining supply will command higher prices…

Thank you.

I find it astonishing that so many EV fans simply handwave away the amount of time it takes to build out new production capacity for lo-ion cells. Tesla very obviously is building out their capacity quickly. So far as I can see, other than BYD, nobody else is attempting it on that scale, or even anything in the ballpark of that scale. LG Chem certainly isn’t, which is odd, considering their growing list of customers.

Tesla can very likely buy up mothballed auto assembly plants, and get them up and running, faster than legacy auto makers can (partner with existing battery manufacturers to) build their own high-capacity battery factories from scratch.

GM is more China focused than US focused.

GM has to give battery makers purchase guarantees at specific prices over long periods of time for them to quickly build out capacity.

At best they can do it as quickly as Tesla.

Because Tesla is going as fast as possible.

Battery Gigafactory 2,3 and possibly 4 announced later this year.

Not going to happen. No $$$ for that kind of expansion.

That’s what Tesla bashers said in 2008, 2009, 2010… right up to 2016.

How is that working out for them, again? 😀

It’s cheaper to buy a few congresscritters and and EPA chief hell bent on getting rid of anything vaguely “green” which completely coincidentally helps his friends and donors.

David Murray – totally agree with you. But question for you and the other people here about your statement that “GM can easily respond by moving those drive trains to other more popular body styles, and can overtake Tesla in EV sales anytime they want.”

Hasn’t GM already overtaken Tesla for plug-in electric sales (I’m including PHEV’s like the Volt)? Tesla first sold the plug-in Roadster in 2008, and GM started selling the Volt in 2010, and from what I can see, there have been more plug-in’s sold by GM than Tesla. Yes, we all believe that the Model 3 will be smash hit but to date, in actual sales numbers, GM started later and has sold more plug-ins than Tesla.

(I just realized that I’m forgetting the GM EV-1, but then again none of those were ever sold by GM, so my analysis still stands that plug-in sales.)

Another possible oops: I may be just counting U.S. sales. I can’t seem to quickly find manufacturer-to-date sales data for worldwide sales.

Total US Plugin Sales as of last month

GM: 129,846
Tesla: 114,636
Nissan: 105,406
Ford: 86,565

GM, Ford and Nissan do it mostly for compliance, Tesla does it because that is their strategy.

Let’s review the list again at the end of 2018….

The numbers are what they are, no matter how it is spun. EV market is small now, 1%. If it becomes 25%, all the players will be there. And any time the #’s are out, people can always say “Well let’s look at them again 5 years from now”.

Tesla’s worldwide sales, and Nissan’s for the Leaf, are very roughly twice their North American sales. GM? Not so much.

Citing only North American sales figures is most definitely cherry-picking to favor GM. So is doing a direct comparison of sales of the Volt to a car (the Tesla Model S) which costs about two-and-a-half times as much.

Let’s wait a couple of years, and see how sales of GM’s EVs vs Tesla’s EVs compare. I think by then, you’ll have to do some pretty extreme cherry-picking to find somewhere that GM outsells Tesla in EVs.

Maybe in Lower Slobbovia. 😉

Yeah, that is probably true.

But it is not as easy as they might want to think. They will not have the battery supply they need if EVs take off. They do not have a good DC charging infrastructure for the Bolt & other pure EVs.

I think they could do BIG number if they put that Voltec drivetrain into an SUV or crossover though.

“GM… can overtake Tesla in EV sales anytime they want.”

Well, any time they want to start selling EVs without any battery packs. 😉

We’ll know GM is serious about building and selling compelling EVs in large number if and when they move to build or buy their own high-output battery factories. Currently, they’re quite clearly not serious about it.

GM can move the Volt and Bolt drive trains to other car bodies. But to overtake Tesla they have to pass to other hurdles.

First they have to find someone willing to start building large battery factories.
Second they have to solve their dealer problem.

And at that time, Tesla could be the bigger of the two carmakers.

Well put, David. Without Tesla, none of the major manufacturers would bother offering any other than small numbers of compliance cars. Tesla doesn’t need to “win” the race to fulfill its mission. Without them, there wouldn’t even BE a race – and if they stopped, the race would surely be over. GM, Ford etc. would be back to normal within weeks.

Unless some other auto maker wakes up and really begins to make the shift to EVs other than giving it lip service, Tesla will become king of this market….

Remember when the iPod killed the Walkman then the iPhone killed the iPod? Well the BEV will kill the ICE — either you do it yourself or someone else will do it for you….

I believe an electric motor will kill the ICE.

How that electric motor gets it’s electricity may differ…

I.e. PHEV may deal the biggest blow and then be phased out as batteries get cheaper and charging stations more ubiquitous.

I remember when the iPod killed the Diamond Rio and other MP3 players that existed long before Apple got into the market. :-/

and when Android killed iOS – woops, never mind.

You can still get iPods. I use mine a lot still.

No way they will be the king of market share. With huge behemoths really getting in to the game how can they be? Then you’ve got Elon’s ego and the problems that creates (along with the positives).

Tesla bashers whistling past the graveyard of their short-seller hopes.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

If world = USA, then maybe yes. Now for people aware of the existence of other countries beyond the oceans then probably no. It depends.

Whoa whoa whoa! Are you saying the civilized world exists OUTSIDE these United States?

I’m gonna have to google that.

Didn’t know there was a civilized world INSIDE the US 😀


Even with the deep pockets other companies have Musk is a first mover from Paypal, to SpaceX reusable Rocket landing it on a barge, Electric Vehicles even though GM had one but threw in the towel. Battery Storage which could be bigger than there car business. To the innovative solar panels that are the roof and look great. I think there will be huge demand for this in new home construction.

EVANNEX posts are far too pushy and I can’t take the use of caps. I didn’t come here for a stock pumper.

I won’t be reading any of these posts anymore.

Just thought you would like the feedback, insideevs. Nothing against anyone else who does like this stuff.

Poisoning the Well:
This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Gregory Elders and Shaheen Contractor. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.

I don’t really understand what you’re saying. What “well” is being poisoned?

If this was a 20 lap race then Tesla will be leading for maybe the first 5 laps or so, then Nissan will start outselling them and finally VW and the rest will probably dwarf their sales in around 5 years or so from now once battery prices come down.

If it wasn’t for Tesla though, none of this would have been likely.

Nissan, seriously? Nissan had six years to make significant improvements to its Leaf before GM debuted the Bolt EV.

They chose not to do so.

Nissan, just like every other legacy auto makers, will be caught trying to play catch-up as Tesla, possibly GM, and probably BYD surge ahead to capture the majority of the international EV market. But GM will be a serious player only when they move to build high-capacity battery factories whose output they control. So far at least, they’ve shown no interest at all in doing so.

Not quite correct about Nissan. They made a mistake six years ago when they bought / build battery capacity for 250k-500k cars per year. Only to find, like Tesla with the Model S40, that to sell you need a far bigger battery.

They had no choice but to wait for battery prices to come down to a level that the Leaf could have a 60kWh battery. The MY2018 Leaf II with Pro-Pilot will be a more attractive car than the GM-Bolt. And with the e-power hybrids they will be the biggest power in the transition to full electric cars.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that you’re 100% correct to say that the only reason the Leaf didn’t sell better (and not as well as expected) was a combination of the battery pack not having enough capacity and batteries being too expensive.

That’s no excuse for Nissan allowing its tech to become obsolete by refusing to put an active cooling system into the pack. Even aside from the problem of premature aging, the lack of active cooling will limit Nissan’s packs from being fast-charged at a rapid rate, which also causes overheating.

There is no way Nissan is going to compete with the new generation of BEVs, unless it puts an active cooling system into its battery packs.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

The thing is, with current low petrol prices and US politics, USA is probably not a very good market for EV’s.
This means that an outsider as Tesla could achieve great things regarding EV market share due to absence of competition.

Now in other markets with high petrol prices (Europe) or where EVs benefit from strong favorable political winds (China mostly) then an outsider has just about 00% chances to achieve a high market penetration.

As I have said before, due to high Petrol costs & shorter travelling distances, Europe is simply waiting for affordable EV’s with 200 mile range before they take off like a rocket.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

I agree, in Europe all the pieces of the puzzle (that includes a strong fast chargers network )are slowly but surely being put in place for an explosive growth (sometimes between 2020 and 2025 I would say). For the time being we marvel at 1.5% market penetration but it has no economic significance, it is just nice in the way that at least people are made slowly aware that EVs do exist.

Well currently Tesla sells close to half it’s production overseas. Also its adding new markets like Dubai, South Korea and India.
Also Tesla has plans to build a factory in Europe possibly one in China and another in the US.

And half its production is just not that much.

If Tesla continues to grow its production at about 45% per year — not counting the next couple of years, during which it plans to increase it much, much faster — then how many years will it be before your statement is outdated:

Here’s a hint: Not that many! Other than possibly BYD, no other auto maker of significant size is expanding its production even remotely that fast.

Another (Euro)… said:

“Now in other markets with high petrol prices (Europe) or where EVs benefit from strong favorable political winds (China mostly) then an outsider has just about 00% chances to achieve a high market penetration.”

I’m sure that will come as a great surprise to all the Tesla owners in Norway, which is another country “where EVs benefit from strong favorable political winds”. At one time, the Model S was the #1 seller in Norway. Mind you, not just the #1 seller among EVs, but the #1 seller among all cars including gasmobiles.

Last time I looked, Norway was indeed located in Europe. Has it moved? 😉


I believe the estimates of legacy car-makers are far too optimistic in that they think that people will be even buying ice decades from now.

Tesla is the leader in market share already in their segment, and will do the same with the Model 3 in that segment for evs.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

“Tesla is the leader in market share already in their segment”

I fully agree with that, indeed I do not know of any other EV at that price point.

Yeah, (oops, almost swallowed my gum, we agree), and things are not going so hot for the legacy makers who all this great competition is supposed to come from:

“Big auto names like Ford and GM (NYSE: GM) are both down 6 percent in the last week, as new data point to growing trouble for the space. The compounding pain stems from a drop in used car prices, growing auto loan defaults and bearish Wall Street sentiment.”

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

😉 I also agree that, unlike Tesla, it seems old/large car makers are having difficulties to adapt to what people do really want as far as EVs are concerned. The somewhat dull looks of the Bolt is a “living” testimony of this probably. This indeed gives a window of opportunity to Tesla but it is likely to be closed tight very quickly.

I think the jury is still out on the Bolt. Sure it’s one of Cinderella’s step sisters when it comes to looks, but looks aren’t everything.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

Actually I am inclined to believe that some sort of EV “VW Beettle” career is possible for the Bolt. Starting slow but then people finding out the many qualities this car has and at the same time prices going down. A steady, slow but certain raise in sales figure.

Yes, and I think it’s too bad that GM has concentrated so strongly on domestic (U.S.) sales for the Bolt EV. Based on a lot of comments on InsideEVs from Europeans, I think the body style of the car would be a better fit to what Europeans want in a car.

Here’s hoping that in future years, GM expands its exports of the Bolt EV to Europe. If it can overcome the problems with public perception about the Opel name plate, it might sell much better there than here in the USA.

But then, GM will almost certainly need to control its own supply of battery cells to significantly expand Bolt EV production (past ~50k units per year), rather than rely on LG Chem.

VW has always some nice target far ahead..how many EVs has sold yet?

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

It is indeed very difficult to see clearly within VW, probably for VW themselves it is difficult. Now on the other hand we should also be cautious with the Germans when they do something slowly. It often results in something deeply thought, beautifully planned and rather successful (they are my neighbors, I got to know that positive aspect of their working culture ;-)).

So I did some “market research” here in Austria earlier today:
Out of 4 people:
2 will never buy ICE again.
1 is not sure (so let’s say no BEV in his future)
1 is considering doing some BEV surgery on his Youngtimer.

And the 5th is myself, Model 3 reservation holder.

I wonder where the big names get their numbers.

Presumably not from a small group of descendants from criminals 😉

J/K, well not really I am sure they didn’t but you know what I mean.

Well, ignoring China and for at least a few years?….YES!

1) No one else has a world-wide network of 100+KW DC fast-chargers that enable long-distance travel.

2) No one else has made the big investment into a gigafactory to push down battery prices.

3) No one else has the very strong brand name in EVs that has become synonymous with performance AND style.

“Will Tesla Be The King Of Market Share In The Electric Car Revolution?”

Hmmm, I think that needs an asterisk:

*Outside China

One thing is certain: So long as other auto makers don’t control their own high-volume battery factories, as BYD, Tesla, and (to some extent) Nissan do, then they aren’t going to be serious players in EV market share.

Does Nissan still make their own batteries? I thought they started outsourcing that?

After a surprisingly public internal debate, Nissan is once again making batteries in the factories it controls, but is now also buying some cells from LG Chem.


What differentiates the ICE manufacturers? Their engine/drivetrain technology that they hold very close to their chest.

What will differentiate the EV manufacturers? Their battery and drivetrain technology, which they should hold close to their chest. Every one has poor words to say about Faraday Future, but what if their battery technology was really as good as they claimed? No way would you want your opposition to get that! Tesla is smart, they partnered with battery expert and have propriety formula. Nissan had this opportunity as well. GM, probably not. Sure it is risky, but the payoff could be huge.

As to France and Tesla, that makes perfect sense. Tesla is a large car that is very expensive. French are patriotic. Once Tesla releases their smaller, less expensive car I think you will see an improvement in France, as you will in all markets. 400k reservations would indicate that.

The earth if flat = Musk SpaceX is a fraud. Do you want to buy into a lie? Is NASA behind chemtrails? (A: Yes) Now you cannot just hehe about it. Any EV is better than Tesla EV.

Who wants an EV with that complicated battery loading and the batteries which are not nature friendly? Wait for fuel cell cars

Judging from Model 3 reservations that would be a lot of people. Meanwhile Toyota’s fool cells are not doing that well ^^

Fuel cells might have their place, but at the moment BEV have to advantage and focus. You really can’t compete with home charging.

When home battery storage becomes affordable and readily available it will disrupt the electricity companies the same way Ev’s are disrupting the oil companies.

Over 10yrs I’ll pay $10k in electricity costs. If I can put in solar and battery storage for $10k, or less, that lasts 20yrs, that is a significant cost saving.

It’ll happen and it will be huge.