Tesla Gigafactory Pumps Out More kWh Than All Other Automakers Combined

Tesla

AUG 3 2018 BY MARK KANE 44

The production of lithium-ion batteries at the Tesla Gigafactory has reached an annualized run rate of ≈20 GWh.

According to Tesla, that’s more kWh than all other carmakers combined… but well, it’s at the same time not enough to fully support the needs for Model 3 and production needs to be expanded. Additionally, carmakers aren’t often battery makers, so Tesla’s comparison here is weak at best.

Output is increasing and Panasonic stepped in with additional investment to add cell production lines for 35 GWh annually by the end of this year.

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44 Comments on "Tesla Gigafactory Pumps Out More kWh Than All Other Automakers Combined"

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BoltEV (was SparkEV)

That sounds great until you realize 20 GWh / 60 kWh is only 333K. Even if every Tesla only has 60 kWh battery, that rate of production will still take almost 1.5 years to fill existing reservations, and the way they are stuffing’em with 75 kWh+ battery could take 2+ years. They really need to step it up, because they are slackers completely lagging even after 2 years of known demand.

William L

Agree, but that’s the output today, GF1 is only 30% complete. I see GF1 has so much potential when it reach 150 GWh in 2020. Let’s over 830k 60 kwh cars per year.

Viking79

Panasonic just announced they were increasing battery production 4 days ago to match Teslas production rate. There is no shortage in cells, just Panasonic waiting to add capacity until it is actually necessary.

antrik

Well, that’s mostly true, but not entirely: just recently, they mentioned occasional temporary shortages; and on the conference call, they said at some point they diverted production capacity from the storage products…

Pushmi-Pullyu

I don’t have inside info here, but I suspect that if you graphed Panasonic’ Gigafactory 1 production, it would show a more or less smoothly increasing curve, whereas Tesla’s Model 3 production would be much more uneven, with surges and dips. Hard for Panasonic to predict exactly where it needs to be with production if Tesla’s production is rather unpredictable, as I think most would agree it has been.

Doggydogworld

Tesla is making ~200k Model 3 per year, so Panasonic is making more than enough cells. They have lines in place to build more than 20GWh/yr already, but are labor-limited.

They exhausted US/Canada reservations for $49k+ Model 3 already. Remaining reservations are for overseas or sub-49k, neither of which they plan to deliver this year (plans can change, of course).

Sub-$40k reservations will not be exhausted for a long time, if ever.

Viking79

They still have a 2-4 month delay in delivering new orders and they raised prices of popular options and colors (a sign of strong demand)… they still are getting through reservation and order list.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

THIS! I don’t know why people continue to say there’s no demand or reservations are filled when 5000 (or 3000) per week production still require 2 to 4 Tesla months (probably 4 to 8 real months) for delivery.

windbourne

huh. You were doing so great until you had to call them names.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

Name calling is completely warranted. If GM had 400K+ reservations for an EV in matter of days, and then they dilly-dallied for 2+ years and then their production is so anemic that it’d take another 2 years to fill the reservations, folks would be up in arms about how GM is fossil fuel shill and they’re not serious about EV. Tesla doesn’t get a pass for being slackers.

Kbm3

Too funny! GM with 400k demand.
‘Thanks. That was a good one!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Sorry, you missed it. Tesla has Gigafactory 1 providing them with huge wodges of battery cells; GM has nothing equivalent, or even in the ballpark. GM has far less ability to ramp up to meet high demand for long-range plug-in EVs than Tesla does.

antrik

They aren’t slacking: they are late by about half a year on what they originally projected — which was a crazy production plan that was about two years shorter than normal in the industry… I wouldn’t call that slacking.

Kbm3

So if Tesla is a slacker, what do you call every other automaker? Catatonic?

John

And the shorters still think Tesla’s simply gonna go away..

theflew

I don’t own any Tesla stock, but the question I’ve always have asked is what will Tesla’s yearly output be when the reservation list has been exhausted. That’s the output Tesla needs to be building too.

Benz

Demand for the Tesla Model 3 in the US is enormous.

There will be at least 100,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US per year, for many years to come. In 2019 it could be even as many as 250,000.

Viking79

The nice thing is the backlog is international, so even if they build to 10,000/wk and that exceeds US demand, once the US demand has been met they can fill international orders and 10,000/wk is fine.

John
Here’s the deal, this is just my view- Tesla spends ZERO dollars on advertising, yet they’re about as known as a brand as any out there. Every person who’s ever ridden or driven in my Model S has been blown away. If I could count the times I heard, “Man, I never knew it would be like that!”. My point is, every car that takes a name off the list is another free, rolling advertisement for Tesla. Nothing attracts a crowd like a crowd (Tesla). And word of mouth grows daily. Tesla owners are like kids with a really awesome secret- they wanna share with everyone. That’s why Tesla doesn’t have to advertise. (And why do you think Elon tweets so much?) I’ve had multiple folks decide to buy a Tesla after driving mine- imagine quantifying that effect on a large scale with so many Model 3’s flooding the market daily. If I were a shorter, I’d think about that for a minute. Every day there’s more Teslas on the road. Every day.. I don’t think the Model 3 list actually decreases with every car delivery. I think it’s a word-of-mouth snowball that’s increasing by 5,000 – 7,000 mouths per… Read more »
drpawansharma

Fundamental superiority of an electric cars combined with Insistence of Tesla to make only sleek sexy and desirable cars will ensure that M3 will keep selling for a long long long time.

antrik

And the answer always given is that the same concerns were heard regarding Model S and later Model X, yet demand didn’t wane when the reservation lists were exhausted.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Likely sustained demand for the Model 3 will be higher than initial reservations indicate, just as it has been for the Model S and X. Of course, we don’t know how much competition the TM3 will face in the future from other plug-in EVs, but unless and until other auto makers (with the exception of BYD) take control of their own battery cell supplies, Tesla has little worry about volume sales from the competition.

antrik

No matter how often you repeat this, it won’t make it any more true. Car makers don’t need to control the battery supply — they just need to place the orders in time. Just like Tesla had to plan their capacity in time.

Kbm3

Horrible decision, not owning TSLA.

Sympathies.

arne-nl

That same question was asked about the Model S and X. Look where demand of those vehicles is. That’s gonna give you a good indication of where Model 3 demand will go. Also take into account that the 35k base model is not yet available and that overseas markets are yet to be served.

Vexar

TSLA stock is up 18.5% for the week, and they are already turning a profit on their least expensive vehicles available today, something GM isn’t able to do with the BoltEV (without ZEV credits, due to accounting magic). With margins increasing, Tesla will improve to being profitable by Q3, meaning no more cash burn. And yet, they are adding a factory in China and next year working on one in Germany. There are no supply chain problems, no demand problems, they are leaders in their market segment, a significant backlog of reservations to work through.

If you’re short on TSLA, you are an anti-EV or anti-Elon zealot and there is no calm rationale behind your thinking anymore. You’re doing this in a risky investment strategy of short-selling stocks, which mean you are a fool and your money is soon parted.

William

Don’t forget about the Tesla Bond market as well. Tesla long dated Bonds and obligations are roughly priced currently at about a 25% discount. That suggests a Wall Street market value forecast of about a 75% survival rate for Tesla by 2023 (+or- one year). Try to consider investment years, not weeks, when going Long TSLA!

Nix

No, the discount implies inflation is happening and interest rates are increasing and are expected to continue to increase between now and maturity.

The resale value of a bond depends upon the original issue rate compared to what rate buyers can get for a newly issued bond. If you are holding a bond with a lower interest rate than current rates of newly issue bonds, you either need to hold it until maturity and get your full bond rate, or you need to subsidize the price to make your old bond competitive with new bonds if you want to sell it in the secondary market

This SEC consumer warning explains secondary bond market pricing:

https://www.sec.gov/files/ib_interestraterisk.pdf

Doggydogworld

Bolt has positive gross margin if you calculate it the same way Tesla does.

antrik

How would you know? Munro certainly didn’t think so.

Nix

Since GM doesn’t publish those numbers that break out the Bolt, how do you know?

antrik

To be fair, Tesla also sells ZEV credits… (Not accounted under gross margin, though.)

While clearly there are some zealots among TSLA shorters, I believe there are also genuinely naive investors who just don’t realise the position Tesla is in right now… (Vastly improved Model 3 production in Q3 completely changing the financial outlook.)

Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. At least for the next two years, a medium- or long-term “short” investment in Tesla isn’t merely a risky one, it’s a positively stupid one. Someone might be able to make money with a quick in-and-out, since TSLA is such a volatile stock, with lots of ups and downs. But over the course of months or years, a “short” investment is guaranteed to be a money loser.

Nix

Actually, Tesla’s GAAP numbers include ZEV credit sales (because that is what GAAP requires), and their non-GAAP numbers exclude ZEV credits. So they both include ZEV credit sales in margins, and don’t include them in margins. Having both sets of numbers provides more information to investors vs. having only one set of numbers.

BoltUp

Panasonic doing a nice job!

Get Real

You mean the Tesla/Panasonic, or if you prefer, the Panasonic/Tesla partnership doing a nice job!

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

ROTFLMAO
I was going to post that just to poke the Bear here…….you beat me to it.

William

Was that your Russian Bear, that was potentially going to do all of the poking?

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

No, that Bear is busy writing code to traverse US firewalls in voting machines………….BLAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
😛

Another Euro point of view

Are there other car makers making batteries except BYD ?

Alaa Sadek

Some are dreaming about it

Ron Morrell

Nissan/AESC

SJC

“All Other Automakers Combined”
Not many make their own cells, Nissan just sold theirs.

Pedro Coelho

I think more important than the 20GwH milestone is the announcement of 35Gwh for next year. amazing growth rate! As for how many cars that is I think 60 is not a good reference since they are already at 5k and will grow to 7k with supposedly LR model 3. so be a little conservative I would use (0.6 * 75) + (0.4*60) = 69Kwh battery average size for the 10k week programmed.

35Gwh/ 69kwh = 507K cars a year, the surplus is intended for power wall and pack that should almost up 2 GWh end of next year