What Does The Future Hold For Tesla, According To Elon Musk?

Elon Musk

MAY 10 2018 BY EVANNEX 14


In the short term, Tesla continues to struggle with Model 3 production delays. However, if you look at the long-term, once Tesla overcomes its factory bottlenecks, an aggressive set of initiatives is planned for the future. Visual Capitalist reports on “Elon Musk’s future vision, and what it holds for the company once it can get past current production issues.”

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

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Above: A look ahead for Tesla (Instagram: worldoflars)

Part of Musk’s plans are new vehicles from Tesla. What can we expect? The new Roadster and the much-hyped Tesla Semi “which can go 0-60 mph with 80,000 lbs (36 tonnes) in just 20 seconds. Fully electric, and with a 200 kWh battery pack, Musk says that it would be ‘economic suicide’ for trucking companies to continue driving diesel trucks.”

That’s not all. Expect updates soon on the forthcoming Model Y which is “expected to go into production in 2019. It will round out the ‘S3XY’ product line of Tesla’s first four post-Roadster vehicles.” And although details remain sparse, plans are in place for a pickup truck which “will be Tesla’s priority after the Model Y, and Musk says he is ‘dying to build it’. Musk says it’ll be the same size of a Ford F-150 (or bigger) to account for a ‘game-changing’ feature he wants to add, but has not yet revealed.”

Above: A look at the 2020 Tesla Roadster and Semi trucks (Image: InsideEVs via TheTeslaLife)

Of course, Tesla still has to get their production processes under control prior to expanding to more factories. However, “Tesla said in 2017 that there will be ‘probably four’ more battery Gigafactories in locations that would ‘address a global market’, including one in Europe. This makes sense, since the need for lithium-ion batteries to power these EVs is exploding.” This is in addition to Tesla’s “Gigafactory I in Reno, NV (Batteries), and Gigafactory II in Buffalo, NY (Solar panels).”

As China removes many of its restrictions on foreign auto companies, “make no mistake about it, Tesla wants to own a large chunk of… China [which] accounted for 24.7 million passenger vehicle sales, amounting to 31% of the global auto market.” At this stage, “Tesla already owns about 81% of the market for imported plug-in EVs in China.” With new policies in place, China could represent a big opportunity for Tesla in the coming years.

Above: A look at Tesla’s Model S and X (Instagram: quad001)

And there’s plenty more on tap for Tesla. Its foray into stationary storage and solar roof tiles is “democratizing green energy by creating a self-dependent ecosystem of products.” And plans are in place for a proprietary ride-sharing service, the Tesla Network, to complement its efforts to achieve vehicle autonomy as Autopilot steadily improves. And there’s more. For an expanded look at Tesla’s plans, check out the infographic below…



Source: Visual Capitalist presented by Global Energy Metals

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers, free of charge. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX. Check out the site here.

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14 Comments on "What Does The Future Hold For Tesla, According To Elon Musk?"

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What is not love? Well, it would be this: “The competitive strength of Tesla long term is not going to be the car, it’s going to be the factory.”

Tesla has earned its place in automotive history by developing a car that customers are passionate about. The competitive advantage of Tesla is: Product, Product, Product! It is not, and will likely never be the efficiency of its manufacturing process. Musk has recently been obsessing over efficiency and debottlenecking during the ‘M3 production hell’ phase, and it has affected his priorities and clouded his judgement. Is manufacturing efficiency important? Of course. But reinventing the automotive manufacturing process shouldn’t become a strategic priority.

Tesla needs to continue to develop and offer groundbreaking products, and they need to do it within reasonable constraints for cost efficiency. That is the key to their long term success.

There is a small but important correction to make in the infographic. The Tesla semi battery will most definitely not have a 200 kWh battery pack, it will probably be in 800-1000 kWh range.

“… to pump out EVs at a pace never seen before”

Tesla has already done that. If he wants this to be revolutionary, he’d have to replace EVs with vehicles:

“… to pump out vehicles at a pace never seen before”

VW is currently at 3800 vehicles per day from one factory. Yes that is per day.

3900/day might set a new record but would not be revolutionary.
10,000/day certainly would be.

Musk, you have your new target 😉

Where is the “ultra-low cost model” information coming from? I’ve never heard about it and would love to know how and when Elon or Tesla talked about it.

I’d love to see a Golf model Tesla. Model G? 😛

There is couple of mistakes, i think that is one if them. I think Elon said that they will never produce cheap cars, and in the near future nothing less expensive than model 3

What do you expect? It Evannex which is nothing more than a blogger from a questionable source.

Not only have I never seen a Tesla/Musk reference to it, Musk is on record saying that Tesla is _unlikely_ to make a car cheaper than the Model 3:

The reasoning is of course silly, since if you can share a 5-seat car to reduce costs, you can share a smaller, cheaper 4-seater (sub)urban-only commuter car that doesn’t need to go fast or good aerodynamics or lots of luggage space.
A-Segment (mini cars, like the Citroen C1) cars are 8% of the European car market, and Kei cars are 39% of all Japanese passenger cars.
Not to mention, it’ll probably be 25-30 years for fully commercial L5 autonomy.

That’s right, Elon has been quite adamant about Tesla never making a lower-priced car than the Model 3. He has, however, suggested that Tesla can bring down the cost of TM3 quite a bit, with his vision for vastly increasing the output of factories. But now that his vision has been brought down to earth, we can hope that he’ll rethink that position.

Perhaps more realistically, we can look forward to the day when Elon Musk is no longer so firmly in control of everything at Tesla, and hope that those in charge will pursue a plan for a lower-cost, truly “Everyman” plug-in (or wirelessly charged) EV. That would be the EV equivalent of the Volkswagen Beetle.

My guess is that much of Tesla’s savings will show up as longer batteries for the same price, and slower than the national average year-over-year price growth on similarly speced units. This has been their pattern.

Und ‘Volksplug’??

“The third revolution in auto manufacturing hasn’t happened yet.” And despite Elon’s bold claims, I don’t see any strong evidence it’s going to happen at Tesla. Sure, Elon Musk talked a lot about his vision for using “basic principles of physics” to revolutionize factory production, to speed up the pace of the production lines by as much as 5x or 10x. But Elon’s vision was based on eliminating human workers from the line, allowing machines to do assembly at eye-blurring speed; so fast that he thought wind resistance from moving parts around would become a limiting factor! Well, Elon has been forced to face reality, and that reality is that — as he now admits — humans are better at doing some parts of the assembly work than are robots. So, no auto assembly lines moving at eye-blurring speed, and no factories with 5x or 10x the output of existing factories today. Now, that’s not to say that we’ll never see fully automated auto assembly lines moving faster than humans can. After all, many small products and small assemblies are made with touchless automation, especially in the field of electronics. But there’s no reason to believe that Tesla is going… Read more »

Having to do less automation in the current production line is just a hiccup. A year from now the Model 3 production line and battery production will probably contain automation again for most parts that are now switched to humans from automation.

Tesla is pushing automation from A to Z, for example design of the product is also important, something roboticists can’t do.

Model Y production line and the next battery production lines will again be a major step forward in production. It is just a matter of time untill Tesla has a clear cost advantage because of automation.

Tesla is best positioned to do this because it has more knowledge in software and is more innovative that other car companies.

Thank you for pointing out the conflict between Musk’s vision for a quantum leap in production line speeds and his newfound appreciation for humans. Elon is a victim of his own intelligence and ambitions – always looking for the next opportunity to address – the next ball to juggle. He has enough balls in the air right now to focus on.

He said during the most recent earnings call that Model Y production won’t start for “at least 24 months”. That would put it in 2020 at the earliest not 2019 as the infographic and article state.