Tesla Falls Short Of 6,000/Week Model 3 Production Goal

SEP 3 2018 BY MARK KANE 109

Tesla’s quarterly Model 3 production goal unthreatened though.

According to the latest reports, Tesla missed its target of producing 6,000 Model 3 a week by the end of August, or even repeating 5,000 a week, but the automaker is producing enough Model 3 to achieve its quarterly goal of 50,000-55,000.

Electrek’s sources say that only 6,400 cars were made in the last seven days of August, including 4,300 Model 3.

Quarterly it was 53,000 (including 34,700 Model 3). With one more month until the end of the quarter, the outlook for achieving the anticipated growth marks are solid.

Earlier reports estimated that Model 3 production exceeded 6,000 at least for a while and that cumulatively 80,000 were made since the beginning of the Summer of 2017.

Regardless of the exact numbers, Model 3 is now the top-selling electric car in the world.

In just two days, we’ll report on August sales of all plug-in vehicles, including the Tesla Model 3. Anyone want to guess at Model 3 sales in the U.S. for August? We’ve got a figure in mind. How ’bout you?


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2. Tesla Model 3 Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.


Tesla Model 3 Performance - Dual Motor Badge
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Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance Tesla Model 3 Performance - Midnight Silver Tarmac Motion (wallpaper 2,560x – click to enlarge) Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Wide Tesla Model 3 Performance - White Interior - Touchscreen

Source: Electrek

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109 Comments on "Tesla Falls Short Of 6,000/Week Model 3 Production Goal"

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Tesla have a short window of opportunity (of about 4-6 years), before the major companies start producing BEVs. My prediction is that major Japanese automakers will commit seriously to the BEV market by around 2025, and rapidly come to dominate the market by the end of the 2020s. Tesla needs to take advantage of its current first mover advantage, while it still possesses it.

By 2020/2021 all the main automakers will produce BEV cars massively. You don’t need to wait 6 years.

Did anyone notice the reuter’s article about the “German EV onslaught” today where they claim Tesla is expected to sell 50k Model 3s this yr and about double that next yr? Talk about media manipulation… Q3 alone will be over 50k Model 3s sold!

I think that’s this one: http://archive.li/lEnZg

They’re at 38,000 by InsideEVs’s estimate and that’s just the USA. If they maintain the numbers from July they already broke 50K. Yeah, that’s some really vile reporting. They’ll hit “double that” this year, not next.

Reuters and BI are terrible. Yahoo is heading that way too. Excuse me it was UK finiacial times that scripted a low battery Tesla no overnight charge range anxiety

Why do you say it’s media manipulation, and not just a misunderstanding? Understating the Model 3 sales figures should in no way affect a future potential sale. And it’s a bit of a guess work if all you have are Q1 and Q2 sales numbers to go on.

it sounds cooler to claim that ‘MSM’ are a bunch of liars. Problem is, that most of the lies are coming out of just a few companies.

Model S/X combined should sell around 50K.

You’re seeing the headline and not digging into the details. “Electrified”, to them, only means a mild hybrid system, not an electric car. So, mostly there will be no competition.

nope. I am guessing that by 2021, That tesla will have the most models and remain on top. At most, other car makers will have 5 models.

The Model S was introduced over 6 years ago (June 2012) and there were similar comments heard then. Where are they?

Yes, and it is even worse than that. Tesla actually did their car show tour with the Model S in 2009, so other car makers have had nearly a DECADE notice on the Model S, and they are still struggling to put out a car that competes with that 2009 demo vehicle.

The reason is that they prefer to remain profitable.

Yes, how terrible that Tesla is following Amazon.com’s business model. They should remain a small auto maker and concentrate their efforts on making profits for investors, rather than on growing.


How short are the memories of short-sellers like “Seven Electrics”? Only three years ago, investors were saying exactly the same thing about Amazon.com.

They said the same thing about every dotcom company too.

yeah, but 7e is correct. The other car makers are desperate to retain high profits. They have NO desire to invest into the future. Except the Germans, they will wait until they are near death and then insist on getting billions from the feds again. OTOH, the Germans are getting billions RIGHT NOW, from their gov.

I will have to say that I want to see us bail out GM and Ford again, but only if we break them up into 3-5 companies EACH. In addition, none will be allowed to import from China to here or other nations. That way, there is real competition. If they do not like that, than get China to bail them out.

GM was bailed last time. What makes you think GM or F will not get bailed out this time (or again) if “we must”? They are relaxed because they have nothing to worry about.

yup. And not just profitable, but EXTREMELY profitable.
Right now, those car makers would take out a contract on Musk and blow up tesla if they could do it and not be blamed.

Not sure why some of you modded 7e down. He is spot-on.

Q: “Where are they?”

A: A casual look at Tesla’s financial situation tells us why – other mfrs aren’t interested in losing money on EVs when they can make money on their current products. They aren’t interested in spending *billions* of dollars on “maybe”.

They don’t have Gigafactories.
They’re stuck with the convoluted dealership sales model.
Developing an EV that’s *too good* makes their other products obsolete.
EVs comprise a miniscule market. Why should they gamble billions of dollars on such a venture when they can make billions on SUVs and trucks?

Sure, Tesla now owns the EV market, but the company’s survival is no certainty, and with subsidies drying up it’s going to be harder to sell product. Even the EV market is no sure thing.

How many billions did VW lose on pushing dirty diesel and getting caught cheating? How many times have US manufacturers been rescued due to lack of foresight and investment? How many subsidies do European manufacturers receive just for keeping jobs in Europe?
The industry is not really in a position to crow about rational or optimum decision-making, and Tesla is thoroughly embarrassing the German manufacturers especially. This will continue to be the case for quite some time, though I am not going to make any predictions about the mid 2020’s. Certainly the next two or three years Tesla has a large and growing advantage. After that, we’ll see, but it is unlikely that the company will not retain a role.

BMW and VW plug in EV sales to july combined is 130k

Tesla is at 90k.

Sneaky germans.

Lots of tiny battery plug-ins go in to that number.
So you are needing to combine 2 companies to beat Tesla even with the tiny battery plug in handicap.
And you are of course talking very old companies distributing a variety of models around the world. Tesla’s number one car is in 2 countries only.

Now compare BEV sales….


Tesla is just BEVs. How many BEVs do the Germany companies have combined?

Good thing Tesla is developing that EV that makes other cars obsolete. Then they don’t have to. Save those billions… oh, wait, that might be a problem for them in 10 years?

You are right, nothing is certain, but political unrest is about the only thing I see stopping them at this point. Tesla will be one of the top automakers in 10 years.

They are not obsolete yet, they still get thier sales numbers. When sales dip 25% per year in ICE sales and 200% in sales in EVs like the CD and mp3 then the ice is obsolete

Ford’s plan is already to shrink car sales instead of compete.

Fords plan is to drop low profit, low volume vehicles.

Well, however, lots of money to be made on EV sedans. Ford will miss out.

“Top Automakers”. Are we talking rivalling Toyota or companies like BMW? There’s a big difference in scale between the two.

Which part of top automakers does not make sense? You pretty much have to be in the top 10. Right now, they are in top 30+, but are growing fast.

Still they did e.g. Bugatti Veyron that was a hugely lossy project.

“Even the EV market is no sure thing.”

Barring the sudden appearance of perpetual motion devices, BEVs most certainly are a sure thing. What else could possibly make gasmobiles obsolete? The closest thing they have to a competitor is fool cell cars! 😆

What subsidies do you think that Tesla gets that helps them to survive?

Agree. It’s not too late to pull the plug on EVs. Some may think I’m wrong. They’d also be disagreeing with people like Chelsea Sexton. Heck, Ford decided no more cars. Is that how Obama’s “1 million EVs, by 2015” goal was supposed to pan out?

It sounds so naïve, when people post on Inside EVs how the EV floodgates are about to open. How so tight a group of companies, acting together to gimp better, cleaner, more costly vehicles, are about to have this epiphany and make them.

You get what you pay for in competitive Capitalism, but not global auto’s anti-competitive lipstick case.

I feel you. I will believe it when ice sales dip down 25% yearly like CDs did in 2000s

“…the EV floodgates are about to open. How so tight a group of companies, acting together to gimp better, cleaner, more costly vehicles, are about to have this epiphany and make them.”

The EV revolution will succeed even if legacy auto makers refuse to make them. If they do, they will be no more successful at stopping the EV revolution than Eastman Kodak was successful at stopping the digital camera revolution by refusing to make them.

The EV floodgates are opening. They’re opening with agonizing slowness for avid EV supporters like me, but they are inexorably opening wider and wider. Nothing can reverse the trend for long. Economic forces are more powerful than political ones. Shutting the floodgates would merely cause demand to accumulate until the dam overflows or bursts. If one country or another imposes restrictions to slow or stop sales of BEVs, that will only mean they’ll fall behind in competition with other countries.

Kodak invented the first Digital camera and rode the first wave of investment in it. They spent too much too fast and go heavily burned when the digital market didn’t pan out the way they expected. Something I’m sure many established manufacturers are very aware of. Don’t jump in with both feet, test the water first. Losing a small amount of market share is preferential to losing the “house”. EV’s are likely to become the dominant share of the market in future, but not in the next few years. Cars and the automotive industry aren’t like small relatively cheap domestic products like phones and CD’s. It takes years to build factories that only produce hundreds of thousands of a product (not tens of millions). People aren’t going to junk a perfectly reasonable $30k vehicle for another, unlike a tape/CD conversion, which cost significantly less. The biggest hold back of EV’s now, and in the next few years is likely to be cost. They’re still too expensive to for most mainstream buyers, even in most places with rebates/tax incentives. The only really successful countries – such as Norway – have massive incentives which drop the price of a vehicle by about… Read more »

Jag and audi are about to join the party.

With small production numbers, but never the less, the market is so huge real EV’s sell.

Until VW, Nissan, Toyota, Ford and Hyundai all start to build and sell BEV’s (and Chevy needs to build an attractive one in real numbers) the BEV market will be a small fraction of worldwide light duty auto sales. VW is talking a good game but not delivering squat for several years. Nissan seems to have lost focus and the Leaf is treading water. Toyota is a joke and Hyundai is building pretty good BEV’s but they aren’t building many. Chevy is building a good BEV but it is intentionally crippled with dorky looks, slow charging and horrible front seats. Ford has been found on the road dead, when it comes to BEV’s.
Jag and Audi are tiny niche market auto makers. They sell about 3% of the global auto sales each year. They aren’t even in the top 20 of global automakers any longer.
So there is no party yet. Tesla is sitting at a table alone, pounding the champagne, hoping some good looking young ladies show up soon. Or not. 😉
That metaphor doesn’t quite work.

There is no first mover advantage here and M3 is not even homologated yet in Europe, and this is a crucial market for EV.Germans & Japaneses are going to churn out better and cheaper cars than Tesla, while Chineses will flood the low end

So, we can expect Tesla to actually need to double production for the EU.

I don’t get why they say 6000/week and then 50-55k per quarter? Were they planning on making a last week effort this quarter too?

The 6000/week figure was for end of August, not end of the quarter… But yeah, this apparent discrepancy confused me too. I guess they meant 6000/week *peak* rate, but with a lot of slowdowns resulting in the lower rate over the entire quarter?…

The 50-55k per quarter includes all Tesla production, not just Model 3.

No, that is Model 3 units. This is from the Tesla Q2 update letter:
“We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3, which will
represent an increase of 75% to 92% from the prior quarter…”

Yes, what was that? AN INCREASE OF 75% TO 92% FROM PRIOR QUARTER.
This is why Wall Street is incompetent at numbers analysis.

My guess is that they saw no fast fix in the bottlenecks (paint shop, delivery process…) and instead of pushing for higher numbers, they were pushing for better quality and more efficient processes. I heard they were able to cut manhours per M3 by 30%

I agree on that concept

The 30% figure is correct but not really meaningful. Model 3 production was ridiculously inefficient in Q2. They scrapped a bunch of automation and brought in thousands of new hires that they had to train. They had 2x the planned people (by EOQ) but only made 0.4x the planned cars. Now they have 2x people making 0.8x cars. That’s why there’s no $35k car on the horizon.

Q1-2019 is the horizon

“30% reduction in labor not really meaningful.” WTF are you talking about? You must be hitting the pipe again.

“Regardless of the exact numbers, Model 3 is now the top-selling electric car in the world.”

Do you have the sale numbers for the Leaf yet? It should be close for YTD sales.

It won’t be close if InsideEVs estimate more than 20k. I think, it is the case

ev-sales (google it) said on Friday, August 31st, that through the end of July, global sales were at 49K for the Leaf and 41K for the Model 3. The Leaf has been fluctuating between 5K and 8K per month so far this year. With no reason to believe a jump happened in August, the Leaf is probably no higher than 57K.

Model 3 likely managed something in the 15-20K range for August, so likely no lower than 56K. At absolute best, Leaf might be leading Model 3 by 1K sales globally YTD, but I think it’s more likely it’ll be about 5K in Model 3’s favor

Yes, that’s why I said it will be close and wondered if they had any more info. The difference in sales fort this year is more than 8k, and assuming Leaf sells 8k, Model 3 would have to sell 16k+. They could do it, but it’s not certain. I think they’ll sell 16k Model 3 in August.


So we’re almost halfway to 10k.

“According to the latest reports” – hold on there!!!

Those are unverified claims by anonymous sources. You are just re-gurgitating nonsense from other sites. Before long, people think this is real information.

What/who is your verified source for this report?

Electrek has posted some pretty good exclusive info in the past — so when they claim to have a reliable inside source, I tend to trust them.

Especially since their numbers line up pretty well with skabooshka who reported very specific numbers through early August.

I’ll guess 17,000 in August.

I’ll guess 22k, as a conservative lower end number

Did Tesla deliver any vehicles to Canada in August?

Did you mean, any TM3’s? I’m sure that Tesla at least delivered some MSs and MXs in Canada during the month.

To answer what I think your question actually was, reports are that Canadian sales have dropped back to a low percentage, but have not stopped.

I previously said 30,000 now I’m still hoping they get over 20,000 delivered.

With all major German brand start to come in and compete in 2019. Tesla’s window is almost officially closed. It could still strive if it can keep its leadership on software and eco-system. There just no way that Tesla can compete the German’s on mechanical features of the cars. By the way, Chinese vendors will come in big time in 2019 on cheap, crap cars to take the bottom portion of the market.

No… on the contrary, we know that the coming German BEVs are not a match for Tesla’s technology.

Tesla’s technology ?? what Tesla’s technology ? Do you think German manufacturers do not know how to make high performance electric motor & batteries ? The issue is to make EV profitable, they are not in the loss making business, unlike Tesla LOL (Q3 is going to be another cracker)

Yeah, the Germans will make a ton of money with buying the relevant EV parts from other companies like Bosch, Siemens, LG Chem, Samsung, CATL. Tesla does EV tec inhouse… can’t see any profits there /sarcasm

Yes that s how they work, just in time, the proof is in the pudding, they are cash cows while Tesla does not make any money what so ever with their in-house complicated/expensive processes, and probably will never make any.

Everyone challenge is to profitably build EV, so far Tesla has failed to build them profitably or to sell anything without subsidies.It s going to be a very competitive/mature market very soon as there is a level playing field.No sure if Germans can make money either.Time will tell.

Why don’t they sell some of thier tech to other companies? Money is money

Cash does just like Nokia and blackberry. But sure Microsoft had deep enough pockets to turn this around when they bought Nokia :-)))

I’m sorry that you’re unable to tell the difference between “not making profits” and “reinvesting all profits in future growth”.

Fortunately, most of us are not so myopic.

Tech is tech.

This discussion reminds me of how the cell phone companies dismissed Apple’s iPhone early on. “Computer guys are not going to just walk in. Making phones is hard.”

Famous last words!

I owned a 2015 VW eGolf for 3 years. It was a nice upgrade from the Jetta it replaced but couldn’t hold a candle to any tesla made since 2009. Super happy I replaced it with a model 3 this January, epic Car. So no, they don’t yet. The infotainment system and navigation of the eGolf were infuriatingly mediocre.

We have expert opinion that Tesla’s EV tech is far ahead of any other auto maker, including the vaunted Germans. See article linked below.

But really, why do we need any expert to tell us what is so obvious? Gasmobile makers have had since 2012, if not 2008, to show they can do as well as Tesla can. Let’s not forget that the Model S not only earned more “Best Car of the Year” awards than any other car, it also earned several “Best car ever made!” reviews from professional car reviewers!


That plus only jaguar and maybe Audi will actually be put into customers hands in 2019 the rest is announcements for 2020

If they can produce them. So far we don’t have a single automaker outside of Tesla capable of producing real volume. What makes you think the new batch will be different?

what about BYD?

BYD is selling in a controlled market. Most of their cars built for China have the build quality of a slightly upgraded Yugo. There is a reason Chinese “middle class” car buyers yearn for a Buick. It is because BYD and Chery build so-so cars for the Chinese market.

Good point. Tesla and BYD. Funny thing, those are the only two EV makers which control their own supplies of battery cells. Almost like that wasn’t a coincidence…

When other auto makers control their own battery cell supplies, then maybe they can ramp up production too. But that won’t magically let them match Tesla’s superior EV tech.

No one wants that crap German “quality”…

Ipace arrived with battery tech that uses 41kwh vs Tesla 26kwh. And its software and ui is retrograde and will be stuck in place, by design.

Meanwhile model 3 doubles heat transfer rate over S. And will double supercharge rates by summer end. Talk is cheap. Vw can’t even diesel.

Cognitive dissonance those who still halo German car industry. They’re Nokias trying to outdo Apple

Incidentally I convince 4 this mo within my family circle to buy a 3. Me and my bro in law are getting performance. The word of mouth is epic with the 3. Love the bear brouhaha. Short shorts will be popular soon.

Please show me a review that shows that Tesla’s steering and suspension are behind the BMW 3 series for example. I have not seen one review that complains about the “mechanical features” of the car.
You can complain about the spartan interior, lack of soundproofing, the single screen, the lack of buttons if you want. But mechanical features – not sure that is a good argument.
I know of no sub $50k compelling car coming from the Germans in 2019. I am sure I am uninformed but please enlighten me.
I supercharged this weekend. How about the compelling charging infrastructure? I had enough flexibility to make a non Tesla work but only with 250 miles or so.

C&D said suspension didn’t dampen bumps as well as German sedans. Said Model 3 was louder than an A4 on the highway. Said the tires gave way at 7/10ths.

A British outfit called the steering numb and said there was too much body roll. I don’t agree, but let’s not pretend the reviews haven’t nicked the suspension and steering.

“C&D said suspension didn’t dampen bumps…”

That’s a choice on Tesla’s part, to give the TM3 a firmer ride. The Model S has a ride that’s much more soft and comfortable, if that’s what you want. Trying to portray either choice as inferior is flatly wrong. It’s nothing but preference.

Now, if you want to ding Tesla’s sound reduction as inferior, that’s a fair cop.

Audi is the *only* German brand to come in in 2019, with a single model. None of the others is slated to start deliveries before 2020.

I find it funny to read claims how the German brands will destroy Tesla’s market as soon as they start selling… You’d think all these Japanese, Korean, American etc. car makers should be out of business, if nobody would ever buy anything but a German car if they can help it.


15k-18k TM3

That’s was for the month of August

21k < x < 23k for August including Canada

It looks like they’re going to easily make it over 100k by year end. Earlier in the year I was skeptical, but now barring some unforeseen setback it looks guaranteed.

Another Euro point of view

Did I miss the info as when IEVS will publish the August sales figures ? Would that be today ?

We are publishing tomorrow. The long holiday weekend in the US means automakers begin reporting on the 5th.

“August 2018 EV SALES will be reported on Wednesday, September 5, 2018, beginning with Toyota Prius Prime and Nissan LEAF sales at 6:30-7:30 AM PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET) and continuing with Ford and other automakers into the remainder of the week.“

Honestly, who even cares at this point? Emotional stock investors? Tesla makes thousands of cars every week, it goes up and down like the stock market but trends upward over the long run. It has nothing to do with the fact that the product is desirable by more folks than cars that can be produced. The desirable product continues to be improved and made even more desirable. Call me a “fanboy” (gag) because I simply speak a truth, but sheesh, who really cares about the minutely, daily, weekly number?

I completely agree. The important thing is that Tesla has secured its future; it is now rapidly ramping up TM3 production. Short sellers may remain obsessed with Tesla’s week-to-week or month-to-month production, but the rest of us industry watchers can relax and just enjoy watching Tesla overtake one legacy auto maker after another.

The question is no longer whether or not Tesla’s going to be a success; it is a success. The question now is whether Tesla is going to stop growing when it’s the size of, say, Ford…. or whether it’s going to keep growing to be the biggest auto maker on the planet!

Keep Going Tesla!

The only way it’s ever going to be the biggest automaker on the planet (or even Ford sized) is if it compromises on it’s central pillars – high margin, high performance vehicles.

If Tesla start producing a small, low performance subcompact for $15k with a 5% margin then maybe, just maybe they’ll get to the size of a company like Ford (sales wise). If they do then goodbye Model S and X type cars. They’re premium vehicles, which rely on brand prestige as well as technology.

Will Tesla trade it’s prestige for mass market, low profit share? I hope not. They make more sense as a mid volume manufacturer like BMW/Audi selling a couple of million higher end vehicles with decent margins. Nothing wrong with that at all, and more achievable in a decade or two, in the real world at least.

They don’t have to sell them under the same brand. VW has everything in their range from Skoda and Seat to Bugatti and Bentley…

(Also, Ford just gave up on the “$15k subcompact” range — so clearly surpassing them can’t imply having such an offering…)

I think they’ll sell 16,000

And the Bloomberg tracker (regurgitated by InsideEvs) turns out to be garbage.

Oh, it’s not as bad as the quality of your comments. So, not quite as bad as you’re suggesting.

Something is very wrong, where are Bro and “David Green”? They typically are all over a topic like this FUDding it up to the max. Maybe keeping their powder dry for the sales report tomorrow?

Yeah, I was surprised yesterday how unusually fast I got through the various comment threads… Only to realise that David Green is missing.

He is literally responsible single-handedly for like half of all the noise here.