Tesla Deliveries Peak In Q3, Led By North America

OCT 5 2016 BY MARK KANE 26

Preliminary Tesla-reported sales data shows record production and deliveries of both the Model S and Model X in the third quarter of this year.  In total, 24,500 vehicles were delivered, while 25,185 were produced over the three month period.

Tesla Motors car deliveries – Q3’2016 (click to enlarge)

Tesla Motors car deliveries – Q3’2016 (click to enlarge)

When we combine these numbers with IEVs’ estimates of US deliveries (see monthly US sales scorecard here), we see a picture of more than 15,000 domestic deliveries, leaving about 9,000 outside North America.

For the most part, the high slant to US registrations on Tesla vehicles for 2016 so far has been a result of the initial domestic production/delivery focus for the Model X, as well as the addition of new trim levels for the Model S (both in 60 kWh and 100 kWh versions).

It is quite simply easier to deliver new products in your own backyard first (and subsequently repair them if any teething issues pop up) – especially when you are attempting to hit aggressive sales guidance; of which, Tesla is aiming for 80,000 EV sales in 2016 … and has achieved ~53,712 so far.

With that in mind, and despite the Model X’s arrival in volume internationally (finally) for the first time in September (such as 601 X’s in Norway, 201 in the Netherlands, and 129 into Sweden during the month), Tesla’s domestic deliveries could stay elevated into Q4, as the demand for plug-ins for the last months of a calendar year are always accelerated in America – as a product of the way the $7,500 federal credit program works.

Our expectation would be for the delivery demographic mix to balance itself out again starting in Q1 of 2017, through the introduction of the Model 3 in volume production (likely in late Q3).

As foreshadowed by the company itself, Q4 sales are expected to be slightly higher globally over Q3 results.

In total, Tesla has now delivered over 96,000 S/X in North America and about 64,000 outside NA.

Tesla Motors car deliveries – Q3’2016

Tesla Motors car deliveries – Q3’2016

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26 Comments on "Tesla Deliveries Peak In Q3, Led By North America"

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Great to see Tesla achieving such production numbers.

And a big raspberry to the Tesla haters who pronounced the Model X a “failure”! I rather suspect that most if not all auto makers wished they had a $100k “failure” that sold as many as Tesla did last quarter!
🙂 🙂 🙂

The Model X is in no way a failure. However, the Model X project most certainly was, producing a hard-to-manufacture car, with lots of defects, incredibly late. They managed to overcome this, but that doesn’t make the process itself a success. My car alone has spent roughly five weeks in the shop. By the standards of any other auto manufacturer, the architects of the MX project should be taken out behind the woodshed.

Meanwhile, there will be two, possibly three, ~200 mile affordable EVs on the market before the Model 3 gets going. I think the “3” in “Model 3” could well refer to how many other mass market EVs will have beaten them. It may need to be renamed the “Model 4.” If the X caused delays in the 3, it could be considered a failure from opportunity costs alone.

Dude, this thing where you keep posting FUD about Tesla, yet pretend to own a Tesla car…

Not working for you. 🙄

It is not a failure . . . but certainly no big success either.

Those doors still haunt them.

“Big raspberry”? Wait until you get a load of the margin massacre when the financials are filed.

Tesla deep-discounted vehicles to pump Q3 deliveries for the coming equity raise(share dilution). They blew out most of their backlog in the process.

Q4 deliveries bigger than Q3? Not a snowball’s chance in hell.

Gigafarce not completed. Model 3 nonexistent. SEC & NHSTA poking around. Bolt here. The rest of the bigs on the way with their own offerings…


The big question is whether they will show a profit this quarter like Elon wanted… I hope they do.

There are three factors that should allow them to report GAAP results that look like their old non-GAAP numbers.

1) Tesla ended the guaranteed resale value program. That was causing a GAAP vs. Non-GAAP disparity, because they couldn’t book the entire value of the sale until after the guaranteed resale value period was over.

2) Changes in how their lease program now works is also allowing them to now account for the entire value of the sale in GAAP results, instead of just in non-GAAP results.

3) The carryover of cars built last quarter, but delivered this quarter is about the same as the number of cars built this quarter, that won’t be delivered until next quarter. In previous quarters, when Tesla had large production growth in a quarter, they had to book expenses in a large number of undelivered cars. But since the ramp-up in production actually happened in Q2, that expense was already baked into the Q2 numbers.

This should be a very good quarter for Tesla, and it will be in GAAP numbers, so nobody will be able to complain. Well, they will probably complain anyways…..

GO TESLA GO! I am sure they will show a Profit ! Let’s not forget that their Profits are & have been being put back into Tesla to Build & Expand the Company .) Elon is getting Zer0 pay…. Cheers ..

Well, the general rallying the troops seems to have worked, though I’m not ready to shower the cobblestones with rose petals for the returning conquering hero. I have to admit that Elon Musk needs no such person or personages to lay accolades at his feet, and that like Napoleon he will crown himself emperor.

As in Pres. Obama’s “Car Czar?” Well, I do find it ironic you would suggest that, given how hated Tesla Motors is by much of the political force out there.

Guidance on 2016 deliveries was originally 80k-90k. The goal for the bottom end is 7% more deliveries than Q3. With 5,000 in transit, and the remaining back-log on Model X orders originally at 29,000, they should have no trouble hitting the bottom end. Their in-transit figure was 350 higher this quarter. That means manufacturing increased by what, around 10,000 vehicles? I do hope they manage to apply some of the Gigafactory inventiveness to the Model III manufacturing. I suppose batteries are easier to build a factory around than cars.

I meant in the realm of the evs, Musk has no peer.
Napoleon crowned himself since he felt no one else was worthy to do so.
Napoleon was hated and despised by the crowned heads of Europe, yet he defeated their armies.
So I think analogy is a reasonable one, but perhaps needed more exposition.

Between higher expected global Q4 deliveries and the potential to reduce the in-transit back log, Tesla may not have to do the things it did in Q3.

If you think about cash flows for a second, Tesla could lose significant margin and still do better than 2015, on its ~70% growth. Their 75kwh cars represent fewer cells, with deeper “ah” discharge depths. They most likely save more on fewer cells, than they are paying up for those additional amp-hours per cell.

Lastly, they still have nobody in the luxury touring space to compete their margins away. Model S, a cash cow.

can you imagine the work load at the Tesla Service centers!!

Tesla Humour…I’m allowed I own one:)

Ever see the movie Gung Ho?

Maybe some of the cars are like the last ones of those to ship out of the factory.

Did I see Gung Ho?

Is a frog’s ass water-tight?

No, since he can poop.

“through the introduction of the Model 3 in volume production (likely in late Q3).”

I wonder when reveal #2 will be. I’m guessing (if it’s good) it will spur more $1,000 reservations.

In the 2Q 2016 shareholder letter Elon stated the following:
“We exited Q2 consistently producing nearly 2,000 vehicles per week . . .”

“Barring any further supply constraints, we plan to exit Q3 with a steady production rate of 2,200 vehicles per week, and plan to increase production to 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4.”

In the third quarter, Tesla produced 25,185 cars in Q3, which averages out to only 1,937 cars per week. That means that Tesla didn’t maintain its 2,000 cars per week production rate for Q3, and almost certainly didn’t finish the Q3 with the expected 2,200 cars per week production rate. This puts in doubt, Elon’s estimate that Tesla will enter Q4 with 2,200 cars per week steady production, and finish Q4 with a 2,400 cars per week production rate.

Why did Tesla’s production rate drop in a quarter that Tesla was supposed to “pull all the stops” to ramp up and maximize production? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Meh. Looks pretty close to me.

Production rate at the end of the quarter goal was 2200 /week. Given thirteen weeks, though, even if only the last week was 2200 /week, the quarterly average should be 2015 vehicles per week if they exited last quarter hitting 2000 / week.

If they can get through that 5500 vehicle delivery back-log, and maintain <2000 vehicles a week, they can still hit their delivery target, though.

I don't see Tesla as production constrained, I see them as delivery constrained.

They also said they had 5K cars “in transit”, but those still got built in this quarter.
That makes the build total somewhere around 2300 per week.
Not sure how to spin that as a “production drop”, but go ahead if it makes you happy.

Tesla Fremont factory almost always takes the first week of a quarter off… so that’s 12 production weeks, or about 2,100 a week.

Congrats to Tesla.

And congrats to all the new Model S and Model X owners! Thank you for buying the future.

What would have come of tesla if they just built models S and X and built out the SC network even faster instead of such a huge battery factory? Maybe just do a battery factory 1/3rd the size for S and X and worked on getting the low end prices down . Say from 50K to 150K before incentives.

To hit the mass market, Tesla must build the gigafactory FAST, lest the big guys (GM, etc.) flood the market and even absorb a loss for the sole purpose of squeezing Tesla out. I personally will pass on the Bolt and wait for the Model 3, but I’m not sure other members of the “mass market” will wait.