Tesla Deliveries Now Exceed 230,000, Including 100,000 Outside US

4 months ago by Mark Kane 21

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) – through June 2017

Tesla recently reported delivering more than 22,000 Model S and Model X during the second quarter of 2017, which is 53% more than year ago.  Of those, the Model S sold around 12,000 copies, while the X touched about 10,000.

Tesla Model X

The 22,000 Q2 sales when combined with the 25,051 sold in Q1, plus a forecast of stronger sales for the two models overall in the second half, keeps Tesla on track for 100,000+ premium sales in 2017.

Of course, with the start Tesla Model 3 sales starting on July 28th with the first 30 cars being handed out,  working up to ~1,500 in September, then upwards of 20,000 being produced in December, there shouldn’t be any problem to well exceed 100,000, or even 120,000.

Our tracking of Tesla sales this year clearly shows more EV sales are now being made outside of North America, (around 12,000 in Q2 compared to about 10,000 in the U.S.).

In the first half of the year, we see the breakdown as follows:

  • around 20,000 deliveries in North America
  • around 27,000 deliveries outside North America

As always it is easier to see the trends in automotive sales when all the data points are plotted on a handy chart:

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) – June 2017 (InsideEVs estimations)

And here is the cumulative results of combined Tesla Model S/X sales worldwide:

  • North America: >130,000
  • outside North America: >100,000
  • Total: >230,000

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (cumulative, data points by quarter) – June 2017 (InsideEVs estimations)

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21 responses to "Tesla Deliveries Now Exceed 230,000, Including 100,000 Outside US"

  1. Ron M says:

    Goldman Sacks still trying to cripple Tesla sales were down because of battery supplies for 100P batteries not demand.

  2. georgeS says:

    article:
    “North America: >130,000”

    That matches the number I get from adding up IEV’s scoreboard.

    Add another 20,000 MX and MS for this year plus 22k M3 and we are at 172k at years end.

    Barring some big hick up in production that puts the 200k subsidy mark in Q1 of 2018.

    Will Tesla purposely drag their feet and delay #200,000 till Q2 just to milk the subsidies?

    1. Taylor S Marks says:

      I anticipate Tesla will be able and willing to send a lot of Model 3s to Canada, China, and Mexico to avoid crossing the 200K mark in late February or March. Crossing the mark right at the start of April means the full incentives will be available all the way until the end of September, and the half incentive will be available until the end of 2018 (at which point I think the program ends anyways, regardless of sales volumes, unless congress extends the program, which I doubt they will.)

      1. F150 Brian says:

        The Model 3 should do well in Canada. The BMW 3-series / Audi A4 have been the go-to cars for young professionals for a long time due to brand cache(eh) at a reasonable price. I predict the Model 3 will do well in this crowd, maybe with a bit of a delayed start due to lack of Superchargers.

      2. Mikael says:

        I would ship them to Norway. Then it is easy to change any flaws not yet discovered by keeping the sales centralized to the vicinity of Oslo.
        And since the shipping takes time they can probably find and figure out a fix for eventual problems even before delivering them to customers.

        1. GeorgeS says:

          Seems like Elon put out the sched..

          I think US deliveries were first..yes?

  3. Tom says:

    Tesla sales have been flat for a year now and S decreasing. Just take a look at 4 quarters in a row. The S is a luxury sedan when it boils down to it and the X is in even more rarefied air. There’s just only so much market share you can expect them to conquer. The sad excuse of ‘oh in June we had battery issues’ is a sad excuse to disguise the obvious which is your sales have stopped growing. Which is fine. This is not a bad thing. It is just all there is for >$100,000 machines right out of the gate into a market. So now the 3 is well timed to create growth. Lessons learned hopefully on design and roll out from the roadster, S, and X and it will be less ‘lumpy’. You don’t have to be a nay sayer to see the obvious though of the S is just tapped out. It will probably grow gradually with time from here on out with fewer gimmick options and more just standard. X? Well dude….how many $130,000 SUVs did you think would sell? It’s done fabulously but we’re looking at the top side of demand.

    1. Some Guy says:

      Flat sales? They are growing tremendously. The world is bigger than just the US of A. Compare to Q2 in 2016, when global deliveries were what, like 15 k in that quarter?

      22 is quite a few percent more than 15 (at least in Europe, baut there we have the metric system). And that’s with the lowest priced option from last year, the 60 kWh version is not even made any more.

      Last but not least, the communicated production capacity for the two combined models is about 100 k per year in total (+some gains in efficiency maybe, when everything runs perfectly smooth). When they need more S / X, another production line might be required. If Tesla builds one, they sure could move the cars as well, but 100 k capacity in US of Model S and X might be enough, so the production line for aditional S / X might be elswhere, like Europa or Asia, freeing um the capacity used for Export in Freemont for further local growth.

      I also think that the shift into export is on purpose, to max. out the rebate (like any other manufacturer would do). Tesla is just subtle, and does not jack it to 199999 and then stop all sales until the quarter ends.

      1. F150 Brian says:

        It does appear that the US sales (1H16 to 1H17) appear flat. If Tesla’s guidance for 2H17 plays out, then the 2nd half will also be flat YoY.

        It may very well signal the start of saturation in the US, and hence the increased availability globally.

        And the battery supply thing is either an excuse (or a sign that they are not managing the supply chain very well)

        1. Gasbag says:

          Tesla has one production line that operates at capacity and produces both the model X and S. Increasing production of the X results in a decrease in production of the S. Similarly increasing international shipments decreases domestic deliveries. Without adding another line it would be difficult for them to produce a significant increase in production and with only one line at full capacity any interruption is going to decrease production.

          An analysis which points to domestic sales falling or model S sales falling without acknowledging the fore stated is either embarrassingly ignorant or deliberately dishonest.

          1. przemo_li says:

            Hmm. I thought that nobody will be surprised by Model 3 debut latter this month.

            Tesla sales & production departments simply must have felt it already. No other option.

            Tesla had to train some technicians at M3 assembly, tech support was busy purporting new assembly line. Those test mules required by hand assembly, etc.
            Slight dip in production in Q2 is to be expected.

            Sales on the other hand had to contest with people choosing to wait for M3. Especially those who would otherwise buy S/X in Q1/Q2. Expanding to new markets and reshuffling segmentation helped. But Tesla basically need more new markets and more new features on S/X.
            Do note that Tesla cars where so good that significant % of sales went to people who would otherwise buy cars below 50k$. Model 3 will take over those buyers now.

            Sum up:

            Let’s wait till M3 disruptions are in the past before we form opinions about S/X performance.

            1. Jay Cole says:

              Just to speak to the “Tesla sales have been flat for a year now”/something is up meme. This is actually an oft repeated discussion this time of year.

              When you look at Q3 (16), Q4 (16), Q1 (17), Q2 (18) it appears flat, but it doesn’t account for the month-to-month demand profile of plug-ins in America (end of year vs start of a new year), and Tesla’s ability to continually offer a “must have” upgrade (bigger batteries, faster acceleration, re-styling) or entirely new offering (Model X, Model 3).

              Here is the overall chart (as above):

              But if one looks at the comps from prior years, the same basic trend is there. H2 of a previous year is about equal to, or outsells H1 of the current year. The past 12 months is actually an improvement over the prior 12 months in the trendline:

              ie)

              Q3 (16), Q4 (16), Q1 (17), Q2 (18)
              =
              Q3 (15), Q4 (15), Q1 (16), Q2 (16)
              =
              Q3 (14), Q4 (14), Q1 (15), Q2 (15)

              To better illustrate the numbers, here is that same chart deconstructed for the past 36 month periods, over 12 month periods:

              Once again, Tesla is guiding to have better H2 sales of the Model S/X in H2 (~53,000 v 47,000) and they will start popping a new offering on top. ~1,630+ Model 2 in Q3, then another…uh, lets just lightly pencil down 20k for Q4 to try and stay conservative.

              So one is looking at, 25k,22k, 28k (26.5+1.6), 46k (26.5 + 20k).

              Could/should this projected H2 number be higher given original expectations for the M3? I think many would say so…and that is probably the more valid argument/discussion to have.

              In the end however, the Model S/X are uber-premium offerings, and quite frankly this is a limited pool of potential sales, one that Tesla already has the largest market share in (and gained itself that 50 billion+ market cap via)…to speak candidly, its mostly “job done” for the Model S/X on Tesla’s original/wider goals for these vehicles (especially so in the US). The future, and the relative value of Tesla, will now completely ride on the shoulders of the Model 3 (and Y in 2019).

              The real question now is…can this achievement by the S/X be even close to repeated by the Model 3?

              The 3 will compete in the “everyman’s”/high volume automotive segment. The Model S/X were technological/performance giants compared to their petrol peers in the luxury segment, almost demanding the full attention of that market (and forgiveness for any hiccups along the way)…it really wasn’t even a fair fight. These circumstances are not likely to be the case with the Model 3, Tesla will rely as much on the cache of the brand, created by the S/X, to sell the 3 in volume…barring an unexpected announcement on specs/pricing/unknown “must have” features on the 3.

              1. Josh Bryant says:

                Great analysis Jay!

                1. Jean-François Morissette says:

                  +1

              2. Dave86 says:

                Thanks for the analysis and numbers.

                It’s great to see that sales of Model S & Model X are increasing given that Model 3 is almost here. I had been very concerned about the “Osborne Effect” negatively impacting Model S & X sales.

          2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “An analysis which points to domestic sales falling or model S sales falling without acknowledging the fore stated is either embarrassingly ignorant or deliberately dishonest.”

            It’s also the exact same FUD that has been, and still is, posted over on Seeking Alpha pretty much every single day, for years.

            Now, it’s possible that “Tom” is innocently ignorant of the actual facts. But odds are he is just another Tesla basher desperately flailing around to find something, anything negative to say about Tesla.

            I feel sorry for these trolls, who apparently have nothing better to do than to waste time in futile attempts to manipulate Tesla stock prices. Honestly, does “Tom” think all his FUD posts together will affect the stock price by even so much as a single penny? Does he really value his time so little?

            Sad.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Tom said:

      “Tesla sales have been flat for a year now and S decreasing.”

      Perhaps that’s true for U.S. only sales/deliveries, but certainly not international sales. Just a few days ago, InsideEVs’ Jay Cole wrote:

      “Internationally, the early returns/ impressions are that June volumes were decently in excess of April and May’s results.”

      In any case, if Tesla really wants to push up demand, it can start using paid mass advertising (internet, magazine, and TV ads) as other auto makers do. But in the near term, the media “Buzz” over the new Model 3 will do that without Tesla needing to spend a dime.

  4. Hans Hammermill says:

    Tesla finally surpassed Pontiac Aztek sales in the US.

    1. Murrysville EV says:

      That’s true!

      Not bad for the difference in price point, however.

    2. Nix says:

      If you ever find yourself wondering if JD Powers awards were bogus or not — in 2001, J.D. Power awarded the Pontiac Aztek the “Most Appealing Entry Sport Utility Vehicle” award. And GM paid 300K to advertise that they won that award…..

      JD Power awards are never wrong. So therefore, the Pontiac Aztek is the “Most Appealing” SUV, so anybody who says the Aztek isn’t a thing of beauty is obviously mistaken!

      /sarc

  5. MaartenV-nl says:

    It is clear that the production numbers of the last four quarters are about flat, not the spectacular growth of the time before Q3-2016.

    The growth of the production capacity has also stopped, apart from going to three shifts in stead of excessive overtime, there did not change much in production.

    The third thing that has stopped is the growth of the Tesla sales force. If you look at the map of Europe and all the places where Tesla is not trying to sell cars, the only conclusion possible is that Tesla has no intention to sell cars it can not produce.

    You want 1,000 extra sales next quarter? Open shops in 10 large European cities like Lisboa, Porto, Madrid(2x), Barcelona(2x), Rome(2x), Napels, Turin.

    One shop in every 2m agglomeration in Europe.
    One shop in every 5m cluster of people in China.

    Probably the best description is the growth has been paused because all management energy, attention (and money) was focused on the Model 3.

    Model S&X sales can probably grow another 50% if the sales expand to areas not yet serviced.

    But where is Tesla going to build to production capacity to make those cars?

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