Tesla Delivers Record 24,500 Vehicles In Q3, Maintains 2016 Forecast

OCT 2 2016 BY STATIK 89

Tesla delivers the most cars in its history in Q3 of 2016, says Q4 will be even better

Tesla delivers the most vehicles in its history for Q3 of 2016, says Q4 will be even better

Tesla Motors has announced that it sold a record 24,500 all-electric vehicles in Q3, fulfilling CEO Musk’s earlier directive to employees to “deliver every car we possibly can“.  This quarter’s result was a 70% gain over the 14,402 moved in Q3 of 2015.

Tesla breaks down the sales between models as follows, while noting the numbers can still change slightly when the Q3 numbers are reported (although they have issued “conservative” numbers today).

  • Tesla Model S: 15,800
  • Tesla Model X: 8,700

We’d like to take a moment to note this was roughly the same splits we had earlier estimated between the two models for domestic deliveries in the first two months of Q3 (with a higher percentage of Xs arriving in September)…moving on.

Almost 9,000 Tesla Model X SUVs found homes in Q3

Almost 9,000 Tesla Model X SUVs found homes in Q3

Tesla also stated that during the quarter the company produced 25,185 vehicles in, an improvement of 37% from Q2 production of 18,345.  Tesla also noted that 5,500 vehicles were currently in transit, of which will be counted in the next quarter.

Tesla retails stores and delivery centers were extremely busy in September

Tesla retails stores and delivery centers were extremely busy in September

As for Q4 2016 specifically, Tesla estimates it will sell at least the same amount of vehicles in order to hit its 2nd half guidance.

“We expect Q4 deliveries and production to be at or slightly above Q3, despite Q4 being a shorter quarter and the challenge of delivering vehicles in winter weather over holidays. Guidance of 50,000 vehicles for the second half of 2016 is maintained.”

Current tally of Tesla sales in 2016:

Q1: 14,810
Q2: 14,402
Q3: ~24,500

Total: ~53,712

Tesla expects to deliver 50,000 EVs over the last 6 months of 2016

Tesla expects to deliver 50,000 EVs over the last 6 months of 2016

Full Tesla statement on sales:

Tesla Q3 2016 Production and Deliveries

PALO ALTO, CA — (Marketwired) — 10/02/16Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3, of which 15,800 were Model S and 8,700 were Model X. This was an increase of just over 70% from last quarter’s deliveries of 14,402. Our Q3 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.

The rush to get deliver as many vehicles as possible before year's end continues at Tesla

The rush to get deliver as many vehicles as possible before year’s end continues at Tesla

In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 5,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will not be counted as deliveries until Q4.

Production rose to 25,185 vehicles in Q3. This was an increase of 37% from Q2 production of 18,345.

We expect Q4 deliveries and production to be at or slightly above Q3, despite Q4 being a shorter quarter and the challenge of delivering vehicles in winter weather over holidays. Guidance of 50,000 vehicles for the second half of 2016 is maintained.

Finally, we note that starting in Q3, our quarterly financial releases will no longer include non-GAAP revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees. We will, however, continue to provide additional supplemental information to investors to provide insights into our business.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

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89 Comments on "Tesla Delivers Record 24,500 Vehicles In Q3, Maintains 2016 Forecast"

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mx

Amazing increase.
And these are high price vehicles, replacing a lot of high polluting high price vehicles.

Given the right vehicle, the top 10% do care about the environment and our future.

Anon

True, but don’t forget: Tesla has also become a desirable Prestige Brand. They are the iPhone of Automakers, right now.

Feeling the burn, Short sellers? Ahahahaha. 😀 Still waiting on Seeking Alpha to own up to its BS. My clock ticks for you…

georgeS

@Anon
” Still waiting on Seeking Alpha to own up to its BS”

Yes I subscribed to their news about Tesla but I had to make them go away after about 2 weeks of their BS in my in box.

tftf

” Still waiting on Seeking Alpha to own up to its BS”

Huh?

Except for very few news articles, all SA content is provided by external contributors (both positive and negative on Tesla).

You could submit your pro-Tesla to SA today, go ahead.

As for the numbers:

More deliveries don’t help Tesla long-term if they pushed cars with huge discounts.

This was a “window dressing” quarter to get new money from Wall Street – see Musk’s memo earlier in the quarter.

By 2020, there will be tons of EV competition for Tesla in all price classes. Tesla can’t even make money today with zero direct (long-range, high-end EVs) competition.

That’s disturbing because every car maker can get competitive cells from suppliers such as LG and make good EVs – especially in the mainstream segments (see Renault’s new ZOE for example. All other major car brands will follow.

As I have written many times:

This development (cheaper batteries and better charging infrastructure) is good or EV buyers and EVs as a car category, but bad for Tesla and other new entrants.

georgeS

@tftf
I think they hit the bottom of the barrel when they published an article explaining how Tesla was going to switch to air cooled batteries.

LOL clueless

jim stack

Our KIA SOUL EV has air cooled batteries. In the Phoenix area with no loss at all in capacity after 1 1/2 years and 30K miles. Compare that to any car with liquid cooled batteries.

Anti-Lord Kelvin

By 2020, we should hope that potential car buyers would be far more well informed about EV vantages against buying a new (but already obsolete) ICE car that they will not be able to resale for a good price few years later, as they have done for decades now.
So the size of the market should be far bigger than now, so with room for a lot of contenders, and Tesla has already win the heart and the minds of a lot of people and it is already considering one of the best car brands that more and more people will want to show of with buying one. So no worry about a ton of new EVs. And Tesla is doing money (more than 20% of profit in each one) but they are investing into the future, not only as an EV car maker, but above all as an energy company that should give eventually them more money than the car selling business.

Yogurt

Tesla has already weged there foot in the door far enough that they should be a ok when big auto starts competing…
Plus Tesla should have the lowest cost batteries and a battery suply no one else except BYD can match…
Once Tesla releases there quaterly numbers the amount of shorters will drop just like the shorters largely stoped coming to this site after a Tesla GAAP and Non GAAP acounting article was writen explaing to the shorters how wrong they are…
And Seeking Alpha is only as good as the contributing writer and whoever writes the BYD ones seems to always have a positive spin…

JeremyK

“Plus Tesla should have the lowest cost batteries and a battery suply no one else except BYD can match…”

Actually, I think I remember reading that Panasonic is not limited to selling batteries only to Tesla, from the GF. I think it’s in their contract.

RexxSee

The only reason they don’t show a positive balance sheet is because they invest most of their ~25% markup on their crazy growth, due to their very successful and desired cars.

Amazon didn’t show a profit for more than a decade.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’d love to see some other auto maker come up with an EV that would actually compete with Tesla.

But they’ve had eight years to do so, and the closest anybody has come is the Chevy Bolt, which GM very obviously has no intention of making in large numbers.

And contrary to your serial bashing of Tesla, tftf, your constant FUD, no battery maker is building out battery production capacity to rival the output of the Tesla/Panasonic Gigafactory. Nobody, and especially not LG Chem. See link below for details:

http://insideevs.com/ev-lithium-ion-battery-suppliers-outlook-h1-2016/

DrJJ

“…GM very obviously has no intention of making in large numbers”

Without resorting to unfounded speculation, what is the FACTUAL basis for your description of GM’s intentions regarding Bolt production?

Sure. GM only has battery capacity/committment from LG for 2500 units a month – or roughly what Tesla is now doing in a week.

http://gas2.org/2015/07/27/why-is-gm-only-planning-30000-chevy-bolts-per-year/

tftf

An article dated mid-2015 from an author who holds or at least held TSLA shares (but fails to disclose so in his articles) is now certain proof?

LOL.

I can also quote articles that say the opposite and quote GM:

“GM has never officially commented on volume, with Kevin Kelly from its advanced-technology communications group saying only that the company was not production-constrained, and could produce as many Bolt EVs as the market demanded.”

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1106402_how-many-chevy-bolt-evs-will-be-sold-in-the-u-s-in-its-first-12-months-poll-results

Vexar
Not production constrained says something about the demand if we know the agreements about production capacity, TFTF. The number of times I’ve told people about the Bolt who were eager to buy an electric vehicle probably cements that observation with their response: “really only interested in a Tesla. I’ve owned GM, and the Bolt is pretty much the Volt, except on what makes it go, right?” Just last night, a friend of mine came over to my place in his beater Honda Accord, and he said he’s going to drive that until it is dead, then buy a Tesla Model III. I said that was a good plan, because its resale value is going to be scrap metal prices in five years. He didn’t want a vehicle that was as cramped as the Volt. I don’t know if that’s fair, but that’s his perception. I try to sell people on the Bolt when I can, because at this point, buying the Model III means a very long wait. Given the pace of things, I expect the next major factory announcement from Tesla to be a new vehicle production factory. They haven’t applied the “building the machine to build the machines”… Read more »
tftf

“They haven’t applied the “building the machine to build the machines” principles to their automotive manufacturing yet, and they certainly intend to do so.”

You believe in every marketing blurb line from Tesla. The machine that builds the hype…

Toyota (still is) the leader in manufacturing mass-market cars at high margins.

It’s doubtful Tesla can catch up and it will take them years to build additional factories.

As I have written many times on SA: Making mass-market cars in California is not a good idea because of wages and all sorts of tight (environmental and other) regulations.

Building car and battery factories (not just final assembly) in both Europe and Asia/China will take years for Tesla.

Don’t expect anything before 2020-2022 even if they start with permits tomorrow.

Cash-flow is also a problem for these factories because SCTY will require lots of new cash infusion if the merger passes.

Miggy

For a start GM is not making the Bolt in RHD this alone will limit worldwide sales.

JeremyK

Granted, the UK and Australia are RHD, but what other countries are we talking about? India? Sorry, way too expensive for India. Most OEMs have a hard time selling even their base models in India because they’re still “too expensive”.

Most of Europe is LHD, so somebody obviously did the math and decided that development cost and timing were not worth the penalty.

John

It has nothing to do with production.
It has everything to do with their sales model.

Sadly, the vast majority of dealers have ZERO interest in selling battery electric cars. They are independent companies that need to turn a profit. At this time, the profit comes not from selling cars, but from maintaining them every 3-5,000 miles.

EV’s require MUCH less maintenance, therefor will provide MUCH less income for the dealer.

I don’t blame them for not wanting to sell them, it would put them out of business.

It just means that OEM’s should be allowed to sell EV’s direct.

Pushmi-Pullyu
DrJJ asked: “…what is the FACTUAL basis for your description of GM’s intentions regarding Bolt production?” Anybody watching for signs can see some pretty strong indications that GM plans to limit Bolt production, at least for the first two years or so: 1. The fact that GM has farmed out the entire EV powertrain for the Bolt to a new, inexperienced company: LG Electronics’ new automotive division 2. The fact that GM is dependent on a third-party supplier, LG Chem, for batteries 3. The fact that LG Chem shows a shocking lack of ramping up battery production, despite a growing list of customers 4. The fact that LG Chem makes contracts for delivery of batteries two years in advance 5. The fact that GM has stated they have no plans for a right-hand drive version of the car… obviously limiting international sales Now, it’s possible that if demand for the Bolt is as strong as I think it will be, then GM will take steps to increase production. But as long as GM shows no interest in building or buying battery factories which it controls directly, then we’ll know they’re not serious about building long-range PEVs (Plug-in EVs) in large… Read more »
Four Electrics

LG Chem has forecast EV battery sales of $6.5 billion by 2020. That’s 750,000 Bolts. I think it’s fair to say they’re building out capacity to meet their sales forecasts.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I think it’s fair to say that LG Chem ought to be building out production capacity for batteries as rapidly as possible. But as I pointed out above, the evidence says they aren’t.

http://insideevs.com/ev-lithium-ion-battery-suppliers-outlook-h1-2016/

JMIJON

Bla Bla Bla Bla..HUNGAWA..It’s the way Business is Done RIGHT!! They’ve only just begun!!

przemo_li

LOL. Panasonic, is the market leader by volume and price. Thus Tesla is the market leader by volume and price.

LG have less capacity with higher prices to be split over bigger number of models.

Even if there will be Tesla killer amongst them, LG will not have capacity for it to outsell Tesla. So Tesla will have plenty of time to improve their models. Wirhout there need to wait for mid lifecycle facelift….

It’s new entrants like GM/Mercedes/BMW/Toyota that have to catch up with the capacity and the price first. 😉

SJC

“..but don’t forget..”
I guess everyone would have forgotten if you had not reminded them.

Do the math, 100,000 units per year times two years means 200,000 units before even ONE Model 3 gets to market. NO tax credits.

EV1

The 200,000 limit applies to US sales only. The quoted delivery numbers are worldwide.

Someone out there

As EV1 says, only the US sales count towards that. Also, after the 200k the rebate starts tapering off, it won’t end abruptly.

SJC

They have been selling in the U.S. for years, you think “taper down” is going to sell all the 400,000 Model 3 reservations?

SJC

“We believe Tesla will hit their 200,000th U.S. vehicle during 2018”
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/tesla-model-3-tax-credit-worry.html

Mister G

I think tax credits will be available for first batch of model 3. Hopefully Americans will throw out global warming deniers in November elections and the tax credits can be strengthened and extended. But if strongman Trump wins say goodbye to all renewable clean energy incentives and say hello to fossil fuels.

JMIJON

They are cutting BIG into Mercedes S, BMW 7 series, Lexus , Acura, High end Cadillacs .etc: For the same money these Long Range Teslas are a Better Car , A wise Buy.&..Money Well Spent ! .

SJC

December 2018 no tax credits for S, X nor 3. We will see what the sales numbers are then.

MorinMoss

How Model X cars were sold so far this year? Does Tesla still have a backlog of X that were ordered before Q4 2015 or is it mostly new orders?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I recently saw a claim, and I presume it’s true, that a lot of the original reservation holders are holding off on converting their reservation to an actual order, because they’re still waiting for lower trim level options to become available.

It seems upside-down to me that Tesla has introduced the even lower trim level X60, apparently to boost sales, even while it still hasn’t put some lower trim level options into production. But apparently that’s what is happening. My guess is that there has been some delay in getting the parts for some of those less expensive options from Tesla’s suppliers, or that some of them didn’t pass Tesla’s quality control and had to be redesigned.

This is true. You can get an X60. You can’t get a 5 seat version nor can you get one without air suspension.

no comment

the behavior of tesla reservation holders on taking deliveries makes no sense to me – but then the behavior of tesla reservation holders on making deposits made little sense to me either. if their reservation slot came up, and you didn’t want to actually buy a car, why didn’t they ask for their deposit back?

this confirms some of my suspicions about some of these tesla “depositors” as being investors who are seeking to “juice” the price of tesla stock.

Rick Danger

You’re right. In reality, there are only 4 people that actually made deposits on a Model ≡, the rest are bogus.
Nobody can fool no comment, no way!

Nix

“if their reservation slot came up, and you didn’t want to actually buy a car, why didn’t they ask for their deposit back?”

So you are really so dim, that you can’t imagine a single other reason why anybody might delay buying a car?

Nobody delayed because they had a lease they needed to finish on their current car?

Nobody delayed because the options they wanted weren’t available?

Nobody delayed because they just wanted to see how much other buyers ended up liking their cars before they finalized their reservations?

Nobody had any of a multitude of personal or financial issues that have forced them to delay?

The only reason you can think up is some conspiracy about reservations that isn’t even possible, because Tesla went through their reservations and purged it of orders that were over the 2 reservation limit?

no comment

i understand not buying a car. what i don’t understand is making a deposit to buy a car that you’re not ready to buy.

if you had bothered to read the post by p2 before attempting to flame me, you would have realized that the reason that p2 gave for people not wanting to buy is that the price was too high and the depositors are waiting for lower price options to be available. but buy the time that lower priced options are available, tesla will have ramped up production to the point where you wouldn’t need a reservation anymore.

Nix

no comment — You make the reservation ahead of time so that when YOU are ready, you can buy your car on your timeline by finishing your reservation at your will.

What part of this is hard to comprehend?

no comment

the reason why your statement is so difficult for me to understand is because the statement makes no sense. if you are holding out for a lower price, then how can you “buy your car on your timeline” when you don’t know when that lower price will actually arrive?

furthermore, and as i stated earlier, when the car is in full production (presumably when the lower priced options are available), you won’t need a reservation; you would just place your order and wait out the production lead time. from what i can tell, that concept appears to be one that is difficult for you to understand.

Nix

You ASSume that the wait list magically will become zero people long the instant that all of the features are available to all buyers.

That is a false assumption not based on fact.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Seriously? You really don’t understand why someone would rather not give up their reservation slot, and so have to get at the end of the line again when the options they want are finally available?

Windbourne

If that is the case, then I hope that you are shorting Tesla in a big way.

ffbj

No Comment.

georgeS

All right. They should end up almost exactly at 80,000 for the year and meet their stated target. Now the question is: did they make a profit in Q3?

wavelet

Actually, AFAICS there’s a little backpedalling here. Guidance for CY2016 was “80000 to 90000”, so 85K as the midpoint.

If they expect to sell 50K in the last 6 months of 2016, and sold 24.5K in Q3, that means 25.5K in Q4, or ~79K total for the year… just below the lower end.

georgeS

Great reporting IEV’s. On a Sunday no less.

pjwood1

Wow! 24,500 deliveries with hardly any bump from a reduction of “in transit” vehicles between Q2 and Q3 (both about 5k).

Congrats Tesla. An amazing number, for this price bracket.

SparkEV-Fiat500-Leased - M3 Reserved - Bolt- TBD

exactly. That shows not so much gaming the delivery numbers and won’t be a variable for Q4. They better show at least the same, and hopefully MORE to show production continues to ramp and able to fill.

Any word of the breakdown of S sales–whether the lower entry was the reason, perhaps pulling in high end Model 3 reservations? 31K differential (21k differential if you factor in no fed credit in future and 2.5 for supercharger) – you may see a bit for bump from those sales

Loek

Friends of ours that ordered around number 12,000 just got their Model X 75D last week. I think they are still working on some old reservations while delivering some new orders. It all depends on options and customers delivery preferences. Still a lot of orders to be filled.

Anti-Lord Kelvin

And we have to remember that worldwide deliveries had only begun last month, so there is a lot of reservation cars that have not been delivered, not to speak about all RHD Tesla X for UK, Japan, Hong-kong, Australia, etc… that will only begin to be delivered at the end of this year at the best!

Rob Stark

Tesla needs to deliver 26288 vehicles in Q4 to meet 2016 guidance of 80k.

I think there will be Tesla salespeople working at 11:59 PM Dec 31 in China to make it happen.

no comment

this was a good quarter for tesla. the guidance for 2016 is irrelevant; present stock prices are based on a prediction of future performance. the focus of investors will be to look at how tesla did this quarter and next quarter to see what that says about the prospects of tesla going forward.

Nix

If you look at the numbers, Q3 EV and PHEV sales for all companies have trended upward at the end of the year. Then trend towards a drop in sales at the beginning of the year.

Part of this is due to state and federal tax incentives. You need to purchase by the end of December or you have to wait an entire year to get your incentives in many cases. (yea, I know there are ways to get around this, but that isn’t what the market does).

If this trend holds true, Tesla is very likely to beat this quarter’s numbers by a fair margin.

Just_Chris

So about 8150 pcm, does that mean we are expecting about 8150 as the Tesla surge at the end of the quarter. Will September be the first month to crack 16k sales and 1%? I do hope so.

Viktor

Where do you get the number 8150? Don’t forget that this is global delivery and we don’t know how many that have been delivered in USA.

Just_Chris

24,500 / 3 – assumes all cars made in the final month of the quarter are delivered to the USA and that Tesla make the same number of cars each month – clearly not all of this is true.

In reality I suspect that some cars will be made but not delivered and that more cars will be made in the final month of the quarter than the first month. These might roughly cancel each other out to give about 8k sales…. I guess but it could just as easily be 10k sales or 6k sales.

EVA-01

I am curious if there truly was an influence to the rise of delivered cars from underhanded discounts to customers. It has to be on you guys mind too no?

Rob Stark

We will see the effect of discounts, if any, on gross margins when Tesla delivers their financials.

It is Elon’s policy not to discount brand new undamaged cars but it is standard policy in the industry. Not underhanded in any way.

Everyone with an internet connection and any curiosity about Tesla knew about the discounts. If you are about to spend ~$100k on a Tesla and you don’t google “Tesla” and read up for at least one minute you are an idiot that deserves no discount.

Pushmi-Pullyu

EVA-01 said:

“I am curious if there truly was an influence to the rise of delivered cars from underhanded discounts to customers. It has to be on you guys mind too no?”

No, I hadn’t even thought about it until you brought it up. So far as I know, that’s only a handful of isolated cases, certainly not enough to significantly effect sales.

We can be sure the serial Tesla bashers will keep bringing it up from now until doomsday, but that’s no indication that this was more than just a few cases of overly enthusiastic sales reps.

Nix

“underhanded discounts”????

Why is it that when Tesla does a Q3 end of Model Year discount, it suddenly gets painted as “underhanded” or somehow a manipulation of sales numbers? While ICE car makers have been doing the exact same thing for literally decades?

GM notoriously threw $5000-10,000 dollars on the hood of Volts at the end of the model year. Are you going after them and accusing them of manipulating their sales numbers?

SparkEV-Fiat500-Leased - M3 Reserved - Bolt- TBD

You do realize GM and Tesla are VERY different companies and price/performance structures, right?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Nix has a point. Calling the unauthorized discounts “underhanded” shows an indefensible anti-Tesla bias.

Bacardi

Musk has said from day one no discounting and doesn’t even offer an employee discount…Many have reported that Tesla would actually reach out to buyers of the 5 seat Model X and offering them to 50% off discount if they got additional seats and the required air suspension…That seems very generous for a brand new car…It was reported that they are having to discount the 90s because they’re in low demand since now the 100 is out; that makes more sense vs discounting a brand new car…

Pushmi-Pullyu

Bacardi said:

“Many have reported that Tesla would actually reach out to buyers of the 5 seat Model X and offering them to 50% off discount if they got additional seats and the required air suspension…”

Just what do you mean by “50% off”? Surely you’re not suggesting Tesla is offering 50% off the cost of the entire car! Not happening, period. I’m guessing you mean 50% off the cost of those options only?

Furthermore, we’ve seen a pattern of serial Tesla bashers finding one isolated case of something happening, and repeatedly claim that it’s a widespread practice. This smells like one of those to me.

Day Walker

I agree Telsa are clean cars but remember, do they make the batteries in a green way as well? The top 4 thinking of the environment? Musk owns space X, Are the rockets green?

Mark

Reusable is about as green as it gets…

Pushmi-Pullyu

By what standard do you measure “green”? Batteries generally last the lifetime of the vehicle, whereas gasoline has to be replaced about once a week. That obviously makes batteries very, very green compared to gasoline. But nobody is claiming that batteries can be manufactured without any CO2 emissions, or without any contamination of air or waste water.

If you measure it very strictly, pretty much nothing people make is absolutely “green”. But certainly BEVs are greener than gasmobiles and even PHEVs.

And no, SpaceX rockets are not “green” by any stretch of the imagination. Rocket exhaust puts out a lot of air pollution. Note that SpaceX booster rockets burn kerosene, not hydrogen.

pjwood1

I think it’s fair game to argue how much upstream pollution comes before gas ever makes it to someone’s tank, in a much worse way than EV-haters construct arguments about how battery manufacturer is worse than an ordinary car’s origin.

RexxSee

The first stage uses 39,000 US gallons (150,000 L) of liquid oxygen and almost 25,000 US gallons (95,000 L) of kerosene, while the second stage uses 7,300 US gallons (28,000 L) of liquid oxygen and 4,600 US gallons (17,000 L) of kerosene.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

And it’s another reason why the Raptor engine will be a very good thing.

RedAntisocial

Hate to quibble (who am I kidding, I LOVE to quibble) but it’s 24,500 vehicles “delivered”, not “sold”. Tesla, unlike every other automaker in the world, reports vehicles delivered to customers, not how many they have a signed purchase agreement on, which is the “sold” metric every other automaker uses (which allows cars to sit on lots “purchased” by dealers to count as inventory sold).

RM

Exactly, and Tesla stated that there were 5,500 vehicles in transit that were not counted.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yes, but that’s somewhat of a red herring. It’s true in every quarter that there are some cars en route to customers; cars which have been produced but not yet paid for.

If there was a significant increase in the number of Tesla cars en route this quarter as compared to that, then it would be appropriate to take note. Or rather, it would be more appropriate to consider production rather than deliveries. But as I understand it, there are approximately the same number of cars en route at the end of the just-ended quarter as there were at the end of the previous quarter. Yes, production is up sharply this quarter, but there were an unusually high number of undelivered cars left over at the end of the previous quarter… which got counted as deliveries this quarter.

Nix

Pushy, that is correct. The upturn quarter was Q2. That is the quarter where they cranked up deliveries in the final weeks, and had a much larger backlog of undelivered cars than the end of the previous quarter.

This actually shows that Q2 was better than the numbers suggest, because it was that quarter where the end of quarter backlog grew compared to Q1 and previous quarters.

If Tesla did their numbers like any other ICE car company, it is really Q2 that was bigger than the numbers would indicate. If I had the numbers at my fingertips, I would fill in this formula:

Q2 = Reported Q2 sales + end of Q2 undelivered – end of Q1 undelivered.

Q3 = Reported Q3 sales + end of Q3 undelivered – end of Q2 undelivered.

Maybe somebody will fill in those numbers. But I think if Tesla booked their sales like traditional car companies, it will show that the carryover evens out for the Q3 numbers, while Q2 numbers would be higher than what Tesla reported.

Hopefully that makes sense…

Pushmi-Pullyu

Thanks for clarifying that, Nix.

(And thanks for using my preferred diminutive, “Pushy”, rather than some of the others that have been applied to me.)

Breezy

This is incorrect. Other manufacturers also report deliveries. Vehicles on dealer lots are called dealer inventory; they are not counted as sales until delivered.

andre

from the more OBJECTIVE viewpoint:they seem to have survived,or surviving the X blunder…..and demand is still there,or growing……well to do guys will want the last cry I phone,or E car……this is technological progress…….(besides a slowly greening world!!!)

pjwood1

Dunno. If anything, S-market is saturated as X-market gets close to full steam. To finish the quater with near 2, to 1, S-deliveries suggests to me X may not be surviving its expectations. In Q4, they had to originally expect they’d be even. We’re not 20,000 X, yet, all year.

SparkEV-Fiat500-Leased - M3 Reserved - Bolt- TBD

That’s not a demand issue on the X. Still fulfilling preorders down the line—Model 3 reservation holders take note of this!

If you don’t upgrade, you’ll be better off in the Model S 60.

What would be interesting is the S splits for next quarter with the 60 in there.

The more EVs that are sold means these individuals are giving up on gas guzzlers. This also means most likely these individuals will never purchase a gas guzzler again. This will continue to happen with all EVs. Less money used for fuel and maintenance is a big attraction once you have big problems with gas guzzler repairs

Scott Franco

I have seen this push first hand. I have been seeing Teslas everywhere here in San Jose (silicon valley), and note that many have new plates.

Another Euro point of view

24,5k is an excellent figure for cars priced that high, meaning that demand is not a problem. I hope other car makers take notice. Now I am curious to see the impact of those good sales on their results, sadly for me I am just way too financially literate to be nursed with the “we only make losses because of our huge capex expenses” narrative. So far a 5 min. look at their quarterly filings is enough to have this theory spiral down in flame to whomever has good accounting knowledge. Now this quarter may very well be different. Curious to see.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Another Euro point of view” said:

“I am just way too financially literate to be nursed with the ‘we only make losses because of our huge capex expenses’ narrative.”

Isn’t that the same thing that most financial analysts said about Amazon.com, during its growth years? And didn’t they finally stop saying that only after Amazon.com finished its rapid growth phase, and became cash-flows positive?

Of course, just because Amazon.com achieved spectacular success following that business plan, becoming the world’s #1 retailer, doesn’t mean that Tesla will achieve similar success. But I’m not at all convinced that most financial analysts are capable of properly evaluating a large company experiencing rapid growth.

Dany

Very good news for the EV World