Tesla Delays Model 3 Deliveries

NOV 2 2017 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 58

Electric Cars

Tesla Model 3

Following last evening’s Q3 earnings report, Tesla issued emails to Model 3 reservation holders noting a delay in delivery timeframes.

Per the earnings report:

“While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear. Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January.”

This production set back led to social media being abuzz with Model 3 delivery delay emails. Most reports note a delay of one month or so. The email notice is as follows:

Tesla Model 3 Delay Email

Those who’ve logged in and been able to find an updated delivery timeframe report a push back from expected delivery of Nov 2017 – Jan 2018 to a new timeframe of Dec 2017 – Feb 2018. The notice appears to have only been sent to those expected delivery in Q4 2017.

A delay, even if only by one month, is still a delay though and we’re already hearing of reservation holders starting the cancellation process.

Categories: Tesla

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

58 Comments on "Tesla Delays Model 3 Deliveries"

newest oldest most voted
“A delay, even if only by one month, is still a delay though and we’re already hearing of reservation holders starting the cancellation process.” A certain amount of cancellations are expected. As I recall, about 25% of the pre-production Model S reservations were cancelled. So, “we’re hearing about some cancellations” isn’t exactly news. The question is just what percentage of reservations will be cancelled, and how that compares to the number of new reservations coming in. It’s the sum of reservations at any time which is the important number for Tesla, not how fast new ones come in or how fast old ones are cancelled. That said, the announcement of a three month will certainly increase the percentage of cancellations. The number of cancellations can’t possibly affect Tesla’s immediate income. Tesla had so many reservations that it was going to take years to work through them, and likely this will remain the case even with an increase in the percentage of cancellations. But in perhaps two years or so, the number of cancellations will start to be a very important factor for Tesla’s business. There is no question that Tesla has had a major stumble. Going forward, the question is… Read more »

“There is no question that Tesla has had a major stumble.“

FUD! (That’s what PP tells others if they wrote this).

Drink more Kool-Aid.
Tesla is a tech company. No problem ramping up.

No, it’s a car company.

And my projections about Model3 delays have just been confirmed.

TSLA propaganda spin machine at full blast here.
Only outdone by Tesla’s cash incineration engine! $600+ million in losses Q3, and on track for $2 BILLION in losses this year.
Posted their worst quarter EVER in Q3.
Ouch.

Wow. What happened to you Bro?

Did Elon kick your dog or something?

No it’s the bias here. 4 articles on tesla losing 1 billion dollars but commenters like pupu, real s***, NUTS, think it’s ok to lose 1 billion dollars and it will magically appear when investors are figuring them out

They didn’t “lose” anything. They invested it into the manufacture of a product that is projected to generate 120 BILLION dollars in revenue.

Sorry you don’t understand how investing in manufacturing works, and how the return doesn’t come until later.

I think we have different ideas of what immediate means. To me immediate means now and for sure not delivering cars affects their income right now. Every car not delivered is a car not sold and that’s a loss of income.

Even going slower than expected would reduce their income right now because you’re selling fewer cars now.

To me there’s no question it affects their income in the now. The only real question is how much income is merely delayed and how much is lost due to cancellations.

Killing the $7500 fed incentive is probably more of a threat to Tesla than a 3 month delay early in the ramp-up.

Here is the math. The Model 3 is projected to produce 120 Billion in income in the first roughly 5 years of production. Even if Tesla spends another billion dollars in the extra quarter, that is less than 1% over the long term.

Now if you are a short term thinker, and invest based on quarterly results instead of the long term investor, you might go running for the hills.

But those same short term thinkers are the same investors who failed to predict Tesla delivering their 250,000th car in Q3 2017. Heck, they failed to predict them building 2500 cars. They said the Model S would never make it to market for the same reason they are whining now. Cash burn. Those are the same investors who failed to predict TSLA breaking $30 dollars, $50 dollars, $100 dollars, $200, etc.

So you can certainly go with the short term thinkers who have failed over and over to see the forest for the trees. Your call.

Nix, that’s a ridiculous argument. Just because you introduce new information and want to make an unrelated relativistic argument doesn’t mean the argument before was wrong.

Selling fewer cars in the quarter will hurt their revenues in the short term. Certainly. It has less effect the the long term but it is big in the short term.

The competition must be rubbing their hands together as we speak, any delays will afford them the chance to catch up.

The sad part about this is that before the last of the reservations has been fulfilled, the car will probably start to look dated and in need of a refresh.

And no, i’m Not Tesla hater or shorting any of their shares ! If it wasn’t for Tesla, the rest would not even be forced to produce EV’s in any great number.

The competition isn’t interested in producing EVs, they want TESLA to fail and they will all go back to making gas guzzlers that spew toxic fumes LOL and 99% of Earthlings will be happy to buy a gas guzzler.

Yup, the competition is filled with Execs who built their legacy on ICE vehicles, they can remain employed just a little bit longer…

Actual reservation holders will most likely not care about the vehicle being dated…

Tesla better get it together, and quick. So much is riding on the Model 3 and it concerns me that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew.

And ‘Alan’ above makes a great point about the car looking dated. How long can the basic Model S appearance last with a public that is always chomping for the ‘next great thing?’ By the time the Model 3 production catches up to demand (YEARS from now) is the car already gonna be yesterday’s news?

“Get their act together” lol…You make it sound like the company is intentionally being lazy…

Unintentionally incompetent might be better terminology.

Who didn’t see this coming.
More reservation holders will be #Bolting soon. 😀

Don’t know about that, I’m waiting for model 3.

I dunno, at this rate, the Moller Skycar may be available first. 😉

http://moller.com/moller_skycar400.html

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

They need to take that to Area51 and go for a full test flight.

Those are some pretty strong and efficient Wankel engines.

“At this rate…”

Be real. 3 months delay for production ramp from an overly aggressive schedule that was always described as a stretch goal is not some unforeseen calamity

I’m considering Bolting. Your blog has been helpful, also.

What I *really* want is the Bolt’s user interface inside the Model 3 body. 🙂

You wouldn’t regret a Bolt. Its fantastic. Love mine. Lots of room for passengers in the back. Fun to drive!

I prefer the larger size of the Bolt personally, but have you thought about the Volt?

My wife has only two cars on her list so far to replace her 2013 Volt: A Model 3 and a G2 Volt. Since we bought the Volt rather than leased we are able to wait out for the Model 3 to at least test drive it before she decides.

The Model 3 is the better looking vehicle and has great performance. But the Volt is a good alternative. We haven’t used gas since February!

Be sure to test drive the Bolt before buying paying attention to the front seat to see if it’s comfortable enough for you. I’m getting the Model 3 for my wife and was about to get a Bolt for myself until I test drove it. The seats killed the deal for me. I’m probably going with the new Leaf instead.

The seat certainly won’t get more comfortable over time as it breaks in.

But I think if it is that bad, it is only a matter of time for the secondary market to come up with some sort of fix. If not them, then the blogosphere should come up with some sort of fix. In the end it’s just a seat, and I would be surprised if there were absolutely no way to mod it.

I remember Audi folks modding some of their seats in order to solve not having enough head room to wear a helmet for autocross. It definitely wouldn’t be the first time a car was modded.

Yes, if they are bothersome, there are already multiple simple solutions for increasing padding. And plenty of pillow or cushion options.

Some forum users had some good suggestions in the link below. But suggestions can be found all over gm, volt, and bolt forums online.

http://www.insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/a-new-ev-forum-the-inevitable-bolt-ev-seat-complaint-thread.100/#post-733

I suppose for me the idea of having to take a brand new car in to get the seat “fixed” seems odd. But with such limited options in the EV market, it seems like an option.

The car seat cover idea seems like such a Mickey Mouse fix. I’ve always hated seat covers.

At this rate it would only take the Bolt 15 years to go through the initial Model 3 reservations….

Assuming you can even buy one, like you can’t do in almost every Model 3 reservation country.

When most Model 3 reservists having already been waiting years for this car, why would a couple months delay be a concern. And all other alternatives are compromises. The Model 3 makes it affordable to have a stylish & sustainable performance car, in other words have your cake and eat it too.

Anyone more familiar with pack design (“Station 1 & 2”), care to weigh in on how automating cell installation into modules could be such an issue?

Speculation based on the conference call, but there are 4 modules in a model 3 pack.
within each module are hundreds od cells that must be interconnected in parallel and series , this requires welding of the tabs or contacts on the end of each battery and might be where the complication exists. Maybe not the weld itself but the process of loading and connecting the cells. ???

I’m waiting for mine. There just is no other car as compelling on the market except maybe a Model S and its just a bit to large and a bit to much $$ for what I like.

I’ll wait. and my guess is most reservation holders will as well.

I got that email last night.

My previous window was Dec – Feb for first production, now Jan – March.

Standard model was Feb – Apr, now “Early 2018”

AWD was Aug – Oct, now Sep – Nov.

This still sounds optimistic to me, since I am neither a current owner or in California.

I had been expecting March all along. I am shifting my expectations back to June now.

I was one of the first in line in Atlanta to reserve and my new dates are the same as your original dates. But what I’m confused about is where the premium upgrade as an option fits into these timelines.

We want to order the long range version but that’s it. We don’t want the premium package or autopilot activated or sport wheels. Just essentially the base version but with the longer range.

I read somewhere that the premium upgrade would be available later as an option which I took to mean that the first builds are not only mandatory as being long range but also you must pay for the premium package meaning it starts at $49,000.

I would assume that when the base $35,000 model becomes available next the premium as an option will also be available to both those that want to add it to a base model as well as those that don’t want it for the long range model.

I hope this is the case and instead isn’t a third build category that comes even after the standard model without premium interior release.

So little information

One month slip here for a day 1 reservation (now Aug – Oct ’18).
This in Oregon (California’s little cousin-next-door).

It was updated overnight.
Anyone who jumped the gun yesterday might want to check again!

Same here (Q1-2018).

But as Lawrence said below, a 3-month slip in production doesn’t add up to a 1-month slip in ordering.

Actually, the way I read the e-mail, it looks like configuration is projected to be Jan-Mar 2018, but delivery could be 1-3 months after *that*.

If we assume Tesla is overly optimistic (again), that means I might not actually get a car until the end of Q3 (September).

I was expecting March 2018 when I reserved in March 2016, but I’m not sure I want to wait another 6 months.

Perhaps. But it this were the case, they need to change their heading from “Your Model 3 Delivery Estimate”

It appears Musk has decided that while they are behind now they will catch up later. That is, the ramp is delayed but then will be steeper.

And while this is possible, the idea you’re going to assume you make up any slips in your schedule is exactly what led them to be late in the first place. You can’t really count on catching up even if you hope for it.

I hope you guys only see a 1 month slip but I would count on 3 if I were you.

My guess is that Tesla is basing this on their successful burst tests in the rest of the factory besides this one critical bottleneck.

They aren’t totally in the dark anymore on what the rest of the factory is capable of. Not like they were in July. They have been able to do tests and establish benchmarks for what they expect once this one bottleneck is resolved.

So it won’t be a case of peeling the onion, where solving one bottleneck will just immediately expose another bottleneck. They’ve successfully tested the rest of the line and know what to expect.

Because all this work is already done, ramp-up should jump fairly quickly to a moderate level, before they are back into the slog of continuing the ramp-up to 5K.

Once they fix this, they should basically be able to skip over what would have been the month of Sept. ramp up, and go directly to the ramp-up they normally would have done in Oct. Then into the slog that would have been Nov/Dec. So more units early in the delayed ramp-up than scheduled, then straight into the hard part of the ramp-up.

Every part of the ramp up is the hard part. Assuming it’s all downhill from here is exactly how they got into this mess. It’s a bad idea.

I got my email last night and then checked this morning. The standard range reservation has been changed to early 2018. The LR, AWD reservation is still AUG – October 2018.

Can u wait till Sep- Aug of 18 when the car monthly bill will be 700, I guess not

They are a few months behind as their 5000 units per week target that was set for Dec is now move to March, but estimates were only bumped a month. It doesn’t add up.

It rarely adds up … you just have to wait and when it happens it happens … LOL

It does if you need to buy time due to constant overpromising, then kick the can down the road a bit later.

Sadly, Elon is losing credibility which can only be a bad thing, he just needs to stop the BS and get on with fixing the problems before making promises he can’t deliver.

Elon math is like Elon time. i.e. detwhed from reality.

If Tesla chose to be honest, instead of claiming “No fundamental issues with the assembly line …” there would be no discussions necessary. Ton of bandwidth and time saved, waiting for the drip-drip-drip to happen …

Just, fix the issues and move on already, without hiding anything.

Soup sandwich

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Iron out the kinks and get rid of the bugs.
Those should be gone by 2020 when I buy the M3 AWD.

Keep moving forward…….

No big deal for me either. My original battery 2011 Leaf still works fine for my use. I’ll probably still have 25-30 mi range for all my in-town use until 2025. I was planning to use the one-time extension on my M3 reservation anyway, waiting until Tesla got most of the kinks and bugs out of the way. Yup, I’ll probably wait until 2020 for AWD too.

I’ll point out the same thing I pointed out in the other article:

Model 3 “deliveries” started at the end of July, 3 months ago. Tesla claims it is “3 months behind” on Model 3 production. Therefore, Tesla has made no progress at all on Model 3 production since the car was “released.”

++

Except of course the part where you are wrong.

Tesla has successfully burst test the other parts of their assembly line at 2000 cars a month. So while they are stuck waiting for batteries, they are indeed still making progress across the rest of their assembly line.

No, they aren’t sitting on their hands while this bottleneck limits production to 145/month. They are continuing to test and refine the rest of the factory, and making measurable, tangible progress far in excess of the 145/month number that this issue is limiting them to.

I made my reservation in Norway March 31, 2016 at about 9AM (UTC+1), which is several hours before anyone in the US (thanks to the time zone difference), and haven’t received any update to my estimate. Logged on to Tesla to check right now and it’s the same as before; “late 2018”.

My guess is spring 2019.

Oh well. I’ll probably have to wait at least a year anyway as none of the potentially interesting options seem likely to be available any sooner. It’ll be very interesting to see if the waiting list remains long for long. I still think it will.

You might get lucky, and have current party in power kill the fed EV incentive prematurely, and have some production slots open up earlier for overseas sales…..

I don’t get this battery issue.

Since there are so many BOLT ev’s laying around chevy dealerships, why doesn’t Tesla just buy up all the excess model 3’s – take them to the corner garage and place the LG battery and hvac system en masse in the Model 3? Since they have a ROBOT installing the seats maybe they could have it then glue in the LG battery and cooling.

(They could call it a ’73 kwh’ battery (59.9 kwh useable by my testing in my BOLT), and call it the 3ALR (almost long range).

Oh, slip of the tongue, I forgot there were more ‘excess’ Bolts than 3’s.

Still making history in the history books. Look how long the Model x was delayed. Who wants recalls. Let’s get it done right from the first place. Most other manufacturers would keep on rolling and worry about recalls tomorrow! Remember the mass market is more picky about little things vs the wealthy that are willing to look over problems for the future and make it available to the masses later! The wealthy are willing to take risks so they bought the first plasmas TV or microwave!

I’m on the waiting list. I’m located in S.Cal reserved on day one….the decision now is to either keep this or not…is whether or not I am able to get the 7500 federal rebate plus the 2500 Cali. Rebate.

If I’m not able to get it then I may have second thoughts and sell my spot.

Originally reservations Nov-Jan…then Dec-Feb. Now it’s Mar-May. To build the Model 3… Then another 4-6 weeks for delivery