Tesla CEO: $35K Model 3 Pre-Orders/Debut In March, Model X Deliveries Sept 29th

SEP 2 2015 BY JAY COLE 207

Once Again, Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tells Us Everything Is A-OK With The Model 3!

Once Again, Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tells Us Everything Is A-OK With The Model 3!

Tesla’s CEO took to his favorite venue (Twitter) to both re-confirm and add some new information of the long-anticipated Model 3, as well as the pricing and release date on the Model X.

Namely that it will debut in March of 2016, that it will be $35,000…and that you can reserve one as soon as it is unveiled!

Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tweets The Good News

Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tweets (@elonmusk) The Good News

The CEO also added some more background on the production timelines, saying that a fully functional Gigafactory was a must:

Model 3 Production Update (via @elonmusk)

Model 3 Production Update (via @elonmusk)

And while logged in, the Tesla CEO must have figured why not add some clarity to the pricing of the upcoming “regular” Model X?   Of which the Signature Series edition Design Studio just went online for.

Tesla CEO Musk On Model X Pricing (via Twitter of course)

Tesla CEO Musk On Model X Pricing (via Twitter of course)

The Model X in P90D configuration is good for 240 miles of range, and a 0-60 time of 3.8 seconds (3.2 with Ludicrous package).  More details, pricing and specs on the Model X Signature Series can be found here.

First deliveries for the Model X?  September 29th!

First Model X Deliveries To Happen On September 29th

First Model X Deliveries To Happen On September 29th (@elonmusk)

Really, is there any other/better confirmations you could ask for?

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207 Comments on "Tesla CEO: $35K Model 3 Pre-Orders/Debut In March, Model X Deliveries Sept 29th"

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Oil has no chance in hell now.

Oil down 0.25% just today based on this news 🙂

6,000 products are made from oil
everything taken from the Earth is done using machines using oil energy
food is farmed & transported using oil energy
we have a long way to go to get off oil

70% of all the oil produced is brunt by Internal Combustion Engines. Now by the time the Model 3 is out there are two main things that will happen. The demand for these electric cars will be much more than it is today. The second thing is that Saudi will not be able to sustain the low price of oil for that long. Saudi is already suffering, thus it will start to raise the price of oil which will make demand for EVs even more. Not even OPEC will be able to stop the demand for EVs by then.

Saudi wont rise the oil price. They’ll try to hold their market share, so it’s going to be a price war. And the key for sucsess will be low production cost. The russians have very hi production cost (because of old tecnology, hi corruption, bad personal, hi taxes), so they will be the main looser. As I know they spend 35$ a barel to pump it out from the well.

Is that why the King of Saudi is sending his foreign minister to Moscow to make a deal with them?

Today I read that Obama asked the king nicely to fly to the US on Thursday!

Everybody point at USA shale extraction industry.

For it to be profitable oil need to be 100$ per barrel.

With 60$-50$ its deep in red.

Russian on the other hand have big BUDGET cost. Namly that cash is used to run state. No cash – no cash to run state.

So its USA fraco industry and russian government that have troubles 😉

Very OT but I have read that Saudi is trying to run frackers and others out to get back their monopoly… Just keep installing Solar and driving electric… forget big oil.

Russian cost for oil ( Lukoil) is less than $3 per barrel.

Their costs are not that low. That’s ridiculous. Perhaps some old existing wells that are still producing. But if they want to drill a new well, it is going to cost much more than that.

Lifting cost maybe, but not finding cost.

Only 15% of each barrel of oil is used to produce gasoline.The rest are other industrial products. Don’t be naive

I have no problem with products made from oil. That is what we should use it for. It is the burning of oil that is the problem.


That should be true but why aren’t Leafs and Volts flying off the car lots now? People could save hundreds to over a thousand dollars a year on fuel costs now even with low gasoline prices. Of course Nissan and Chevy don’t advertise their plug-in cars.

Nissan is relying on the Negative Carbon Roadtrip and National Drive Electric Week to sell their Leafs.

It’s a cheaper option lol


That will change in 2017 when sales have to double to meet 2018 CARB ZEV requirements. The OEMs who have 200 mile range cars won’t need to though, because they will probably be supply constrained. 80-100 mile EVs will get very, very cheap. A fantastic deal for folks who don’t need to drive long distances. I expect to see high school parking lots filled with lightly used BEVs.

correction: Oil has not chance in at least 2 and a half years.

So Model 3 is still over two years away?


And, if the Model X is any indication, you would have to make a reservation as soon as possible, or it will be 3 years.

While I’m not discounting the possibility of delays, I think it is less likely, and that there would be fewer if it does happen, with the Model 3 than with the Model X. The Model X is a much more complicated design…
*cough* falcon *cough* wing *cough* doors *cough*
The complicated design is probably a large part of the reason for the delays. Elon has said that the Model 3 would be a much more simplified design than the Model S, let alone the Model X.

I suppose if you wanted to nitpick, you could say that it is already 2 years late since it was originally slated for this fall. I suspect that is mostly due to getting the Model X off the ground and not because of the Model 3 by itself. I suspect that the Model 3 by itself won’t see too many delays (if any). But I guess we’ll see in a couple of years.

And that represents a window of opportunity for Nissan to double down on their commitment to EVs. Bring out a 150 -200 mile Van, truck, and car. Sell them for the same as current LEAF after half of incentives… since incentives are going away to punish the success of early EV sales…??? They will be able to soak up alot of Tesla’s potential customers and maybe even hold them into the release of Model III. 2 EVs and a Hybrid in the garage… ready to pass those to my kids and drive the next cool thing!

Any guesses about how much they will need down to reserve one?

Most likely $5k

Reservation for the Model X was $5000, so I’d guessing $3000 for the Model ≡.

Better yet buy stock with the $35 K that car will be like I did and you get a free car by the time orders are accepted in March 2016. Even a profit and you can pay cash like I will.

Given the price range, I would assume $1k, just like new Model S orders are now.

I would guess that Tesla will not charge for initial reservation. Something like they are doing with PowerPacks. They will most likely get way more reservations and good PR in return…

They will.

Its “free” loan to the company after all.

Tesla will have much bigger demand then supply for quite a few years to come.

Limiting demand by cash for reservation, etc. is most certainly possible.

And its free cash to company…

I wondered the same thing Scott and am guessing the same as Jon $5K. ]

If it is around $5K, how many preorders will there be? That is the really interesting question. I bet there will be 100,000++ and that has to be some kind of automotive record.

Then there is the question of sig series down payment.

Put my money on 25,000 pre-orders within the first 6 months! Another 50,000 or so pre-orders before the first one rolls off the line.

5000 within a day.

10,000 within a week.

20,000 within a month.

If we’re predicting the future, I’ll say very few reservations will be completed in the first day, as their webpage collapses under heavy load.

50,000 reservations after they bring back up their website.




It will probably have several hundred thousand reservations before anyone sees one.

I’ll buy that…

This is Tesla, not the launch of Obama Care. No crash.


No! $5K would be stupid. They should take $7.5K that would give them $250M more to work with for the 2 years waiting time…

$7777 would be even cooler!

Go Tesla Go!!!

Even better:

Super early signup (first month): $15K
early signup (month 2-12): $10K
regular signup (month 12-20): $7.5K
last-minute-signup (month 20-xx): $5K

That will be fun! 😉

Model S reservations were $5k so 3 should be less

Model S = 5 ($5k)
Model 3 = 3 ($3k)


Thats more or less how it’ll work out anyways – the Model 3 signature series will likely require a 10K or more up front payment to reserve a spot. The regular reservations are likely to be 3-5K.

Model S Signature Series deposits were $40,000, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Model 3 Signature Series deposits to be $20-40K

I’ll take a Signature fully equiped Model 3, take my money….

How about 1337$? Because they are “leet”! 😉

My guess is less than $5K. This is a mass consumer car. Your average Model S or X buyer has $5K to spare for a few years, but not your average $35K car buyer. My guess would be $2.5K or less. There is no harm in a smaller deposit. In fact it only helps them. They can hype the hell out of the amount of pre-orders they took, and they are able to get the jump on the Bolt, Leaf2, etc… If I put down money on a model 3, I’m likely not gonna go out and buy another competitor car, or at least I will think twice about it. Even if its refundable, the lower the reserve amount, the longer the list will be and the less likely someone will give up their spot on the list. Furthermore, the further down you are on the list, the more likely you are to miss out on a portion of the Fed Tax credit, which will start rolling off sometime soon after Model 3 launch. The long and short of it is that a smaller deposit doesn’t hurt them much, except in that they get a smaller free loan from us.

Model 3 confirmed! Too bad I cant say the same thing about Half-life 3! 😉

Now, witness the power of this fully armed and operational Gigafactory!

Bonus points for a Valve joke!

(Gimme L4D 3 and Portal 3 while you are at it.)

All your battery are belong to us.

So with the usual delays and ramp-up, let’s say 2019 for the Model 3. That will give me time to buy a 2016 Volt in between. 🙂

Well, the GF isn’t supposed to be at full capacity production (50 GWh) until 2020. So the full ramp to 500,000 units per year wont be until then at least.

I do agree it will be late, Elon says two years, but he is on Martian time, so that’s about 3.7 earth years, which is mid-2019.

“fully operational” is different than “full capacity”

Don’t describe your girlfriend that way! /j

Well, if she’s at “full capacity” that’s a really nice complement.

If your girlfriend is at full capacity for 2 1/2 years, she will yield 3+ children – which will cost you more than a Model 3.
If any are twins, you will need to get the Model S or X instead, so you have additional seating.
You should really think twice about reserving a Model 3.

My girlfriend is at full capacity and due to start production in February. I could really use a Model X. Do they come with a child seat?

Hopefully GF never reaches “the full ramp to 500,000 units per year”….

“Martian Time” the release schedule finally makes sense.

It’s funny, but I hold to my old predictions of first US deliveries in Q2 or Q3 of calendar year 2018.

Gigafactory is ahead of schedule… phase 1 is due to come online in the first half of 2016 to make Tesla Energy products. They still need to finish up the assembly of vehicle battery packs. Likely phase 2 would come online before Model 3 launches, but there’s no reason to think that the Model 3 would be delayed at all.

Yes, but the batteries aren’t the only thing that goes into a car. Tesla will be expanding from the current 50K units/year to 10x that… And that’s selling heavy-industry items, not copies of software.
Everything looks different when you’re jumping an order of magnitude: Supply chain, assembly process, delivery logistics… Even marketing and sales, not to mention support. Not saying Tesla won’t handle it, but it’s far from trivial.

Open-Mind said:

“So with the usual delays and ramp-up, let’s say 2019 for the Model 3. That will give me time to buy a 2016 Volt in between. :-)”

Lease the Volt, buy the Model ≡. (Date the blonde; marry the brunette.) You can always renew the lease for another year or two, right?

-$5,000 in March it is!

So if you can reserve in March 2016, but production doesn’t start until Sept of 2017, that is 19 months minimum wait time. Not sure I want to put a reservation down and wait 1.5 years, which will most likely be delayed to 2 years.

I think I’ll just keep driving my Volt into the summer of 2018 and see what we see.

kdawg –

I’m trying to figure out this Model 3 deposit thing myself. I want the AWD CUV version of Model 3. GM’s Bolt comes close to what I want.

So do I lease a Bolt for 2 or 3 years and then maybe Model 3 will finally be out?

I do a lot of driving on snow, and our snow in the PNW is wet, slippery, and on hills. AWD is really appreciated. Also, 250 miles of range would be great. (Elon said 200 miles and “hopefully a fair bit more”.) More likely to get 250 miles with the Tesla.

Also, would hate to miss out on the $7500 rebate.


The Bolt is not AWD or CUV. It is a compact car… Tiny.

Yeah. It should be Chevrolet Sonic size and all.

It’s not CUV size, but it’s not tiny either. FYI the interior of the Sonic is pretty spacious considering its external dimensions/look.

You are comparing the Sonic to Dr. Who’s TARDIS???

Oh my goodness, this is too funny.

I’m in the middle of one of my 170 mile Seattle to Portland trips. Normally I do these trips non-stop, but I’m right now I’m sipping a soft drink at a McDonald’s.

I just noticed there’s about 8 Tesla supercharger stations across the street from me.


So, you’re not a hipster that want’s the first one.
But, you’re driving a Volt.

I don’t want the first one, for the simple sake of it being the first one, but I would like a 200+ mile BEV soon (the soonest?) and that is *affordable*. I like driving in EV mode, and this would be a 100% EV car. So what will be first and most affordable (I’m not going to use the C-word, it’s overused)? The Bolt or the Model 3? I think GM will hit its target date for the Bolt. I don’t have a lot of faith in Tesla hitting the date. I’m also leery of them hitting the price. But if I’m going to buy a new 200 mile BEV, I’d like to at least be able to choose between 2 of them. So that’s why I think I’ll be driving my Volt into 2018. If all things regarding the cars we know today remain the same, then in 2018 I’ll give the advantage to Tesla on the SC network, and the advantage to GM on reliability/serviceability and probably a better interior.

Forgot to mention, about my Volt. I followed it from 2007 and could have purchased in 2010/2011, but waited till late summer of 2012.

If you are happy with your current vehicle, and willing to wait longer if you end up deciding you would like to buy a Model 3, then by all means don’t put down a deposit.

Putting down a deposit is more for folks who urgently want to get a Model 3 as soon as possible than for general consumers. If that isn’t your priority, there is nothing wrong with waiting until it actually comes out.

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!

Great news indeed. But I suppose he has to diffuse some of the flack from introducing a more expensive EV.

When the Model 3 is in my driveway, and the electrons flow to the wheels, on that day, I shall futterwacken…. vigorously.


Lol. These tweets are Elon’s way of saying to the auto industry and Tesla shorts “Let’s Play Ball”…


So this is an announcement that 1/2 year from now, you’ll be able to put a DEPOSIT down on a model 3 either 2 or 3.7 years hence?

There must be some people who really want one.

Maybe he wants to get people to commit to it before Chevy actually releases the BOLT.


And I was ready to do that until he said “2 years out”.

Looks like a Bolt for us.

The Bolt appears to be a pretty small car, but we won’t really know until GM parades around a production-intent model. Musk said the Model 3 would be 20% smaller than Model S, which makes it a mid-sized sedan (and the CUV would follow suit, I would imagine).

They are probably going to have to raise more money so taking deposits gets money plus then he can brag about all the orders for Model 3 cars that he has so he can go to the stock market for another offering.

I expect this is a likely scenario.

It is all of this. Tesla will test the market on deposits, ahead of Bolt and LEAF 2.0.

Generate substantial cash from deposits, be able to leverage that into a major funding round to pay for Model 3 tooling.

If buyers later take their deposit back and buy a Bolt, Tesla will have already proved the market for long range $30 – $40k EVs and be well on their way to delivering their own. GM won’t produce enough Bolts in the first 3 years to match the reservations Tesla gets on Model 3 pre-delivery.

Elon knows there are plenty of Tesla fans that absolutely must get the 3 as soon as possible, he might as well take advantage of that. The cash injection will certainly come in handy.

Bill: My thoughts exactly. I am hoping to be able to afford a $35K car, and I’d love the Model III, but putting $3000 or more down on it? And waiting possibly 2 years for it? Not me. I believe that the car will be worth every penny it costs, but putting down payments on a car that we have not even seen a diagram of, sorry, no can do.

WIth me, Lou, its “Once Bit, twice Shy”. And as far as their dealer-less service, initially it was quite good. Then it went down to mediocre and horrible (when the service center guys broke extra stuff on the car that wasn’t broke). The center manager just suddenly quit in the middle of this and the new manager made sure during repeated calls to him he hung up the phone as soon as he could, not waiting 0.1 seconds longer. THAT was irritating since HIS center caused the damage. Then they tried to get out of the BETTER warranty that Roadsters had, shoveling me into the standard S warranty which rather Sucks. I sure wish someone would take the EVORA which is the only legal Lotus made these days for the states because of the airbag issue, and put a battery and motor in it.. Or, even a Mazda Miata with battery and motor. Eberhardt got it right by putting a 240 mile battery in the Lotus. Since no one else besides Tesla still hasn’t done this (and I feel they’ve dropped the ball on the upgrade, since 360 miles is under 90% of what was promised (400+)), it looks like… Read more »

i think this is a case of elon musk playing p.t. barnum. the cars don’t exist, but even it they did, the distribution network to sell a presumably “mass market” car don’t exist at tesla either.

what is so funny about this is that people are being asked to commit to buying a car before they even know *what* they are buying or *when* they will actually get it. i find it hard to believe that battery costs are going to plummet on the day the gigafactory opens.

on the plus side, from musk’s perspective, this gives the fanboys an opportunity to establish whether they are actually willing to put their money behind their comments, or whether they are just rhetorical fanboys who only make “free” comments on fora like this one. the fanboys are going to lose a lot of credibility if they aren’t going to be willing to pony up with some deposits.

Geez…who beat you up on the playground every day? Where is the crime for being a fan of a superior technology, or a forward-thinking company, or an outrageous personality? Chill out, dude.

“no comment” said:

“…the fanboys are going to lose a lot of credibility if they aren’t going to be willing to pony up with some deposits.”

Right, just like all those sports fans who are gonna “lose a lot of credibility” if they don’t buy season tickets. [/snark]

I can be a fan of Tesla while still being too poor to afford to give Tesla a free loan of a few thousand dollars, thank you very much.

can you imagine elon musk’s reaction if you expressed to him, in person, the sentiment that you wrote???

for your information, there is a big difference between the economics of sports franchises and tesla motors: in major sports, most of the revenue does not come from ticket sales; television revenues are, by far, the largest source of revenue (because there are more fans that are watching on tv than are sitting in the stands). merchandise sales are also a bigger revenue source (this includes all the fans that wear lebron james jerseys, &c.).

Still didn’t answer if it would be $35,000 before or after tax credits.

He has said ‘before’ several times.

That said, they’ve never delivered a car at the target price (or on time).

That said, I still want it.

Yes, he has said it will be $35 w/out tax credits. But take it w/a grain of salt. And Tesla options are not cheap either.

Tesla delivered the Model S within the promised price (about half of the base Roadster) – they simply eliminated the 40kWh base model shortly after deliveries began, citing low orders.

They never actually made one, but to satisfy those few S40 orders, they just software-limited S60s.

They now know that their customers will not shell out for less than 200 miles of EPA range. And, that 200-mile threshold is quickly becoming the industry standard, thanks to the Model S.

If they are certain that they can put the car out there for $35k in what will be 2017 dollars, then they are either wild gamblers on future costs, or they aren’t playing all of their cards (both is probably likely).

Meh. I’m still skeptical of their excuse not to make 40KWH models. I think they felt they were not sufficiently profitable and thus dropped them. This ‘no one wanted them’ excuse still rings hollow to me.

I think a fair number of people would have bought that model but they were waiting to see if Tesla would be viable company. The very rich can buy a car from a company that might go bankrupt. But for people that would be stretching their budget to buy the 40KWH, if Tesla went bankrupt it could have been a financial disaster for them being stuck making payments on a car that could breakdown and not be fixed.

Of cause after. All prices on the Tesla webpage are after 7500$ tax credit.



Musk has stated many times that Tesla expects to be out of tax credits by the time Model 3 delivers in the US. $35k with no federal tax credit available. State credits, who knows.

How about the $10k “estimated gas savings over 5 years”?


Can any one estimate when Tesla will hit the current 200k mark for the federal tax credit?

They are almost at 50k now, with a full two years before M3 comes out I would say 20-25k each of the X and S for the next two years is doable. Sometime in 2018 would be my best guess.

I think the S and X are going to sell a bit more than that in 2017 especially. I think the 200,000th US delivered Tesla could be delivered as early as July of 2017. But it will probably be delivered before the end of 2017. I think Tesla is going to sell 50% more cars in 2015 than they did in 2014. And 2016 and 2017 will see similar improvements in sales figures. Part of this is increasing supply to meet demand and the other part is that the sales price will start to drop.

iirc they said the MS and MX lines could handle 50k per year going full tilt. Around half of those cars are earmarked for Europe and Asia so that will almost always cap them at 25 NA cars unless more production for them is added.

production is 50k each Model S and X full tilt. So 1/2 to US means 50k per year, or 3 years to hit the credit limit. That will be before volume deliveries of Model 3.

If you want the credit on Model 3, you better reserve on Day 1 and cross your fingers.

Yup, that’s been the prediction for some time. Tesla’s slice of the tax rebate pie will likely disappear about the time they start actually selling the Model ≡, so only those who get in early have a chance of getting the ≡ with the federal rebate.

That may make up people’s minds for them that are deciding between a Bolt and Model 3. If you can get a tax credit on one, but not on the other, that’s a big price difference.

I think they need to rethink the tax credit setup.

I hear you, kdawg, but I think they ought to start the phaseout of the tax credit two quarters after the third car maker hits the 200,000 wall. I don’t think that we are getting as much bang for our buck with the credit going to the laggards.
Tesla will get there first, then a close run race between Nissan and GM and then close the gate a couple quarters later.
Maybe phase it out after the 4th auto maker gets to 200,000 but not much later than that.

If it works like they hybrid tax credits worked, then during the first full quarter after they sell their 200,000th vehicle, the credit will be cut in half. The following quarter will see a 75% reduction, and then that’s it.

The tax-credit situation is very tricky. Hitting that wall is harsh. I wonder if perhaps it could be extended. Or perhaps modified to a lower level after 200K cars. It seems a bit harsh to penalize those that worked the hardest to get EVs onto the market.


Where is the ‘Like’ Button?

Take my money now.


I know were my christmas bonus is going this year….

Good news and I like Tesla as a company, even own stock, but it’s not going to be easy for me to choose between Model 3, Bolt and Leaf 2.0. And if Model 3 is delayed as it probably will be, that will tip me a little in the other direction.

Don’t forget the Tesla supercharger network in your equation…

And – by the time the car is actually available – at the earliest – mid 2017 – even more Superchargers will be sited, both in between existing cities, and near existing sites!

Also – don’t forget the Destination Chargers for Tesla’s, and the CHAdeMO Adapter, too! http://www.chademo.com/ > “The number of CHAdeMO DC Quick chargers installed up to today is 8549.
— (Japan 5418 Europe 1838 USA 1238 Others 55) last update 2015.06.30” And – that last update is now a bit old, too; 2 months in fact!

Yeah, at $450, the Tesla Chademo adapter is a pretty neat device. It can certainly provide you with a fast-charge from the many chademo chargers out there.

It really helps make the Tesla an EV you don’t have to worry about running out of a charge.

There are no facts on the ground that overwhelming prove Bolt will offer a value proposition as good as Tesla and will be delivered substantially ahead of Tesla.

GM’s said production of the Bolt will be limited. The other downside, is having to deal with a Stealership– and any markups they’ll place on a “hot” new car. 😉

GM plans to build 30K the first year. I’m sure if demand is more, they will build more. Let’s see where demand ends up.

@ Robb Stark – I’d say the history of the Volt & the Model S/X should give us some clue. GM hit its release dates and has Bolt mules testing now. Tesla consistently misses dates and price targets, and hasn’t even shown a drawing of a Model 3. Tesla has higher prices, but better performance, however their interiors are lacking (IMO, but +1 for the screen graphics). I don’t know what Tesla will produce for $35k or when it will happen, but I’ll wait till 2018 to see.

I recall when the Volt first came out. Stealerships added 2K to 10K to the price and they gave that markup some dumb name other than what it was, a “Stealership Rape” add on to price.

Sure, that was added value……lol

When I bought my ICE from a Stealership, it had a 3500 dollar “Market Adjustment Fee”, added to the MSRP, clearly listed on the itemized list of costs for the vehicle.

F’ers. I fully expect the same thing from GM’s Dealers.

Kinda difficult for Tesla to prove anything with not even a mule in existence.

One thing that Robb Stark forgets is that there *IS* overwhelming proof that putting ZERO down on a BOlt for a deposit is an overwhelming better ‘facts on the ground’ value than putting $3000 to $5000 down on a car that, to my knowledge, either doesn’t exist, or else they are keeping it more secret than the Manhattan Project.

People said that about the X.

Now here we are with the first delivery end of this month…


And as Elon said, the production vehicle will “…be better than the prototype, in almost every way.”

And it has. For example: Insane mode didn’t exist when the X was being first shown to the public. The latest “Ludicrous Mode”, is now an option for it. The battery pack is larger, at 90 KWh. So many tweaks and refinements to list…

So, based on Elon’s word and what he’s actually delivered on– I’m all in with Elon. A Model III is a more sure bet, then GM’s Bucket of Bolts sitting on a Sonic Frame, will ever be.

Yeah, treating vehicles as upgradeable products is another non-trivial contribution by Tesla to the auto market…easier to do with an EV, of course, but still, Tesla’s are the ONLY vehicles I know of that are upgradeable in any way by the OEM.

Or that the Bolt will be sold in whatever state you live in. Unless something has changed recently, the Spark EV is only sold in 3 states in the US. I don’t think the Bolt will be a 50 state vehicle.

I’m sorry but the Model 3 will destroy the Bolt. The Supercharging network is a trump card.

I think the phrase ‘Trump card’ has become too tarnished to use these days.

I do not want a tupee on my car. 😛

When it was revealed, GM said the Bolt would be sold in all 50 states.

Just 2 mire years for Model 3? I will believe it when I see it.

Tesla missed almost every important deadline by years, not months, in the past.

After the F’kd up Model X schedule delays, Tesla went much more conservative with Model III. These delays should make everyone (except Model X owners with a deposit) happy.

Because of the delays, they’re basically scaling down something that already exists, and finding ways to save money / weight with these smaller designs. This is not at all the same thing as developing smart multi-hinged gull wing doors or fancy motorized second row seats from scratch.

It should be a pretty straightforward (and relatively quick) process for them to translate something that already exists, down to about 20% smaller. Most of the work for Model III is probably all the bean-counterie-stuff, for cost reduction, possible exotic materials, process & supplier acquisition; not ground up R&D + design.

It amazes me how many people are in total denial about how the Model ≡ will be designed. When an auto company wants to make a model which is half the price of another, it does not take the more expensive model and trim away bits here and there.

The Model ≡ will be a clean sheet design. It will use a mostly steel body, rather than an aluminum one. Sure, the design will be simpler, and it’s easier to work with steel than aluminum. But all this will be new for Tesla. So don’t kid yourself.

More problematic for Tesla is controlling costs on a model with a thinner profit margin. Musk is good at controlling things to get what he wants (if micro-managing can be called “good”), but he doesn’t have a very good track record with controlling costs. Tesla has proven to be capable of making very well designed complex cars. Making a simpler car with a thinner profit margin, in a lower price market where controlling costs is mandatory, may actually be a more difficult challenge for them.

Space X and solar city are the lowest cost in their industries.

Well, the fundamentals are already there – the skateboard, the touchscreen and excellent user interface, control electronics, programming needs, scalable pack sizes, etc.

They also learned what it takes to get a production line going.

I realize that changing scales may introduce wrinkles – they won’t be able to take every Model S dimension and simply subtract 20$% 😉 Things do not typically scale well, but they know what to do – they’ve been through the process before.

However, it will be delayed until 2018 because they’ll want to keep doing new things and packing new features into it.

It’s not just the design of the car that the schedule is riding on. Elon tweeted that the Gigafactory must be operational. So any hiccups there will also cause delays for the Model 3.

And if they cheapen up the car too much (which is already pretty spartan) I think you lose the C-word that is used so often.

I’m sticking to my Q2 or Q3 of 2018 prediction…I know I’ve been saying it for way over a year, and I have seen nothing to convince me that 2017 will actually be a delivery year.

We wil not deliver a car before it’s time. So they wait a bit longer just to make sure. A lot of new technolgy goes into a Tesla. So it takes longer to work out the details (bugs).

Humbly offer:
NO sig edition.
$2k down, precisely when refunds arrive, resulting in no-brainer, “ahh, what the hell,” deposits when people are flush.
Further expect, as commented above, that reservation numbers will be stunning, particularly when you can lease a bolt-leaf-volt for the two years of wait.

“Fire in the Hole!”

Suddenly, millions of Americans started hording money more than usual, almost tanking the economy as much as the lower oil price has helped it.


I’m guessing we might see the car in 2018, but I’ll happily give them $500 or $1000 now. I leased my Volt 2 1/2 years ago in anticipation of it being here next year, but looks like I’ll just get an old Leaf until then. Whatever it takes, it will still be worth the wait.

not the leaf!

Okay, I’m renting my house for a year and living at work.

Model III Points of Reference: Tesla’s 4th Vehicle – but – about the 5th or 6th rendition of vehicles – since the Model S came in Single Motor models first – then in Dual Motor Options, with Autopilot developments, etc! $35,000 Is to be at least 200 miles range, Supercharger Access – and Free (for Long Distance Travel only, unless something changes by then); and also – will have access to a more fully developed Supercharger Network (The Map only shows out to 2016 so far, we have no information in what they will add in 2017, 2018, etc.!) as they are continuing to expand and fill in gaps, and add additional sites near other sites! Plus – with all the design and build experience with the various Model S and X renditions, I would expect a higher probability of improved quality in mfg areas.

It’ll be 48-60 after all the add ons.


Isn’t that true for *ALL* car models and Trims?
The more you add on the more the cost goes up……..duh

So what’s your point?????

One other thing:

It will be a shrunken Madel X without Falcon doors.

Wanna bet it won’t?

Given that the Model X will ship in volume four years after the prototype was revealed, does that mean the 3 will ship in 2019? It’s a significantly more challenging car, with a Gigafactory on top.

Tesla has said it has simplified the design of the Model ≡ in order to get it developed sooner. We can at least hope for a 2018 debut, but 2019 is entirely possible.

However, I don’t buy the argument that Tesla “has” to get the Model ≡ into production soon. Whenever it finally debuts, it will almost certainly sell as many as Tesla can make, and that will remain the case for some years. The Bolt and the Volt 2.0 and the Leaf 2.0 won’t steal that much of the Model ≡’s market, because those other auto makers aren’t interested in making a compelling EV in large numbers. They aren’t interested in making cars which will eat into their own gasmobile sales. And they won’t, until the market for plug-in EVs is much, much bigger than it is now.

Others have other problem.

Battery supply.

That and price tag of battery pack.

This opposite is true from a design and production standpoint. The only significant complication is cost. That means using more conventional materials, supplies, designs, etc.

98% absolutely negative ,mostly cynical ,unhappy people…..They should go to Range Rover,Lambo or Maserati….or to BYD!……… Go Tesla!!

The further I scroll down, the harder I laugh. I’ve never seen anything like it. The more this company delivers on its promises and exceeds expectations, the more people moan like they’re the least trustworthy company on earth. Luckily, the internet is forever, and all of these comments will provide entertainment for generations to come.

But Tesla consistently misses targets, not hits them, when it comes to dates & prices.

The negative comments are from people that are once bitten, twice shy regarding Tesla’s announcements.

Don’t take it as anti-Tesla. Most everyone would love to be surprised.

I agree with Push-Pull on this one.

Conflict of interest = EV ( low margin ) vs. Gasmobile ( high margin ). So it’s funny when people predict GM, Ford or Nissan is gonna kick into high gear to trump Tesla.

A lot of things would have to happen for EVs to shoot ahead of conventional cars. Surely a big price hike on oil would help.

The whole dynamic of who buys EVs will have to shift. Those seeking a Camry/Accord/CUV family car aren’t running to an EV. While higher income folks are still the core EV customer, it will remain a niche. A true $30,000 EV without a tax credit incentive is still pretty far off. Add to this discussion the buildout of enough charging opportunities for the Camry/Accord/CUV people to even consider one – and we’re talking a decade, at least. I know it’s not what you want to hear – but it’s plain fact.

* a true $30,000 EV ( with 200+ mile range ) is still far off.

I’m not discounting a possible “perfect storm” of events happening. Say if gas goes way up, economies of scale drop battery prices faster than expected, and Musk surprises us all with an early 2018 delivery of the first Model 3 to customers.

That would send ICE-makers into panic mode, thus the infernally-combustible profit machines would take a back seat to new EV development.

$35,000 for a Model 3. An EV for the middle class… and they will probably want a $15,000 deposit. Signature Model 3’s will probably go for $55,000.

My prediction is that affordable Model 3’s will not be available until after 2020. Nissan will probably clean up with the 2017 LEAF.

Well, for those of us who want a car from this company, it would behoove us to put the money down right away, if any of us have it to spare, to show support and expectation of success by the masses (and free multi-year loan of the cash).

I’m sure people will drop out along the way, but if they get 300k reservations by the end of 2016…a reservation in January of 2017 will get you a Model 3 in late 2019 at the earliest, assuming my prediction of Q3 2018 for first US deliveries (I sincerely hope I’m wrong, and that they actually do deliver before the end of 2017).

I think I’ll start looking now for $5k to set aside by March…then we’ll see what it actually will amount to…I would hope that it’s only $1k for a base price of $35k and a 2-3yr wait.

For those who are considering the Bolt or Leaf II as an alternative to the Tesla 3, you really need to consider the Supercharger network. Without that a 200-mile EV is only marginally more practical than a 80-mile EV. It makes regional trips possible, but long distance trips will still be out of the question.

For me, the Volt II is the only practical alternative. Furthermore, it has the added advantage of being available now, or almost now.

For all those who think 35K EV by 2017-18 is not possible.

Seeing that the Bolt will go into production in late 2016, it’s totally possible.

It’s target price is $37,500, not $35,000, but there will still be tax credits available, so net price is $30K.

When do deliveries start to Australia?

Waiting Waiting…

Well, my thought is, Tesla is like Apple…everybody want to have an iphone..everybody looks at the Model 3…all in one company..that was a dream..

I wonder how the time horizon compares to Hyundai’s BEV?

Some people forget that not everything is perfect with Model S (drivetrain & battery issues, but service is good). And when Model 3 is available, there is time for other EVs to get cheaper, or more range. The supercharger is Teslas trump. But quality ? No…Material interior ? No… I really love Tesla, but if imagine 35.000 Dollar Model 3 interior, like a Spark EV ? (with a touch display) I mean Model S interior quality is comparable with a good middle size car.

Who cares if the interior looks like a Spark or not. The point here is that it can take you across the USA for free for life. You can’t take a Mercedes out of the parking lot without paying for a full fuel tank plus extra charge for filling it for you!

The Model 3 at $35k won’t have ‘free for life’ supercharging. It’ll be a very pricing option and probably cost each time used.

Your be wrong. The keywords are sustainability and solar. Charging will be free not for life but forever.

Which will come out first, Tesla Model III or Elio Motors? At this point it’s neck and neck.

The unexpected scenario is 5 million réservations. How would Tesla and Elon react on that?

When I look at the Gigafactory I just can not believe that it will make batteries for JUST half a million cars. I just can’t. It is too big. I suspect that Elon always played it down but this factory can make batteries for 5 million cars easily if not more. I say this because the energy density of the batteries is getting better. In simple terms, if one 18650 cell doubles the energy density then the factory will double the number of cars it can support. QED

Doubling the kWh capacity of the gigafactory could be as simple as doubling the size of the battery. Instead of 18650’s, just build a larger size battery, and build half as many.

(I realize it isn’t exactly that simple, but you get the point.)

Guys….for real do you understand how friggin big this is?! This is THE gamechanger we’ve all been waiting for! I actually had doubts about this becoming a reality…seems to me I was wrong. And I’m so happy about that!! Tesla just took over the whole auto-industry.


Think in Model S SC is not standard like in Model S60. Than you pay 2500 Dollar and in average it will pay off for Tesla.

I still have doubts. I doubt it will ship on time. I doubt they will hit the $35K price target.

But I’m still very excited.

If they hit those targets, it truly will be a tipping point. Plug-ins will no longer be a sub 1% of the market.

Any *Official* word on SC capability?

I don’t think you even need to ask.

SC capability is a given. The $64k question is will it be free or and an option (my guess is at least $2k).

I am sure it will be a good product but they will have missed the mass adoption of plugins by a good one to 2 years. I it takes the discomfort to look beyond the east coast on one side and the west coast on the other side but world is gearing up with plugins and sales figures do not lie. Both BYD and VAG group started from nothing few months ago and already sale more plugins than Tesla. Not to speak of Nissan/Renault. Big car can say thank you for all the time it took Tesla to put the californian soccer mom car on the road.

I’m really anxious to know what it will look like. They knocked the MS design out of the park by looking like a sleek “normal” car. The appearance competes quite well with iconic, luxury, sporty brands like BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, etc. Tesla has done the same with MX (comparing to the BMW X-series and the Audi Q-series, it’s no uglier, IMO).

I sincerely hope that they don’t pull the same stunt that BMW did with the i3 – the i8 is a cool-looking sportscar, as it should be, but the i3 is a goofy-looking gimmick car, making wild assumptions about what millennials are looking for in a car.

Just build a damn car – a car that looks like a car, but cool (like the MS is). The frunk is handy and a cool conversation piece. But, then again, I’m not a millennial…

hmmm…well, since MX is AWD only, then the base will be $80k, since the S70D starts at $75k.

With the falcon doors, 3rd row seats, and additional functions/design issues for the 2nd row seats, I’m pleasantly surprised that the premium is only $5k over the MS.

Wow, over 150 comments in less than 24 hours. Is that a record?

OK, about model 3 reservation deposits… I believe it will be lower than people expect. No more than $2K perhaps. Why ? Because to finish the GF Tesla will yet need a big amount of good cash. Then to raise this cash it is better to report a 200,000 long list of $1k deposits than a 50,000 long list of $5K deposits.

Good point. If $5k shows serious commitment to purchasing a $90k car, then $2k does so for a $40k car. And now I’m off to sell blood plasma!

I see all this enthusiasm here and that’s good.

I’m disappointed about the timing. You guys better get ready for a 3 year wait.

I’s signature series delivered in 2 years. How many of you enthusiasts are going to pony up for the sig.????

My guess is not many. I’m not waiting that long sorry.

You might as well pony up for a used 85 or a new 70D.

Even the gen 2 leaf will be out before then. Don’t forget Elon misses all his targets.

Don’t forget that factory needs to be up and running first…..and Elon misses all his targets.

I bet you could buy a 30kwh Leaf, a Gen 2 Leaf of a new Bolt before this thing hits the pavement.

Who says we are not already driving some type of electric?

Beats me spec. I’m Voltless now and in the market. I hate being without an EV and I don’t want to wait 2.5-3 years. I’m 66.

Not gonna happen. Sorry, but there’s no way there will be a $35k Model 3 before the end of 2018. Early “Signature” versions, possibly.

Tesla is unable to deliver things on time, or even fashionably late.

Still, I may get one when it finally rolls around.

A couple 2 year leases and we are there 🙂

George –

Good points by you and other posters about Tesla coming out initially with signature editions initially of Model 3. It might be a few years from the initial Model 3 release until Tesla releases the CUV version. A lease of a Bolt (or heaven forbid Leaf Gen 2) might be the ticket until the desired Tesla is available.

Of course by the time Tesla finally gets that AWD CUV Model 3 out, GM might do the same as a Buick…

My predictions are Q3 2018 for Model III sedan, then add 2 years minimum for CUV.

I was pretty over-enthusiastic in my previous comment….the timing is a little bit of a concern. I would say 2019-2020 would be a time when delivery time is down to 1 month weither you live in Australia or Sweden. Nissan 2.0 will hopefully be a huge success and ON TIME to be shipped to customers around the globe in late 2017 to early 2018. The Bolt will only be sold in selected markets.

As long as gas is below 2 dollars a gallon EVs will not sale very much. However when a long range battery comes 500 miles a charge will be a game changer. Lack of education on EVs is another big factor also a big unwillingness to change is another factor. Not many people understand that an electric motor can last way longer than gas engines. There are not many vehicles out there in the million mile club with the original engine. Usually a gas engine has to be overhauled several times along with transmission to get close to a million miles. There is a 2012 Volt with 200,000 miles already logged and has wheel bearing replacement as the only repair besides tires. The electric motor or traction motor is doing all the work. The prius is exactly opposite where the gas engine is doing all the work and the nicads give maybe 10 miles of slow speed at the most. People need to get away from Toyota. Toyota does not even want to make an EV.

Elon Musk and Tesla is shocking the oil industry and OPEC. That is why gas is so cheap now. Gas is not cheap because of fracking or a big surplus of oil. Since 2005 there have been a lot of hybrids sold mainly prius and some Fords. However the gas never went down but up and than going down in 2014. In 2014 EVs were selling until the gas went down. When gas goes down to 1.60 as what happened in Missouri old vehicles are easily repaired. When gas was going up that is why they came out with cash for clunkers. Why repair an older vehicle when you can get a new vehicle with a good tradein and better mileage. However EVs get you away from all the problems of gas and diesel engines. There are lots of mechanical issues that are not there with an EV. Most people today do not understand this difference between ICE and EVs. Also a hybrid is just another ICE vehicle with an electric motor similar to an oversized gas engine starter. The Volt is not a hybrid like prius which most folks especially prius owners do not want to understand. I am… Read more »

Need to move onto electric aeroplanes as this is where most oil is used when looking at transport costs 🙂