Tesla Analyst: First Model 3 Deliveries Expected “At Very End of 2018”
Though Tesla’s official stance still is “volume production and deliveries of Model 3 in the second half of 2017,” some doubters, including a long-time Tesla supporter, are suggesting that this timeline won’t hold true.
Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst assigned to cover Tesla, has often been favorbale of the automaker, but more recently, Jonas has viewed the automaker with a somewhat pessimistic eye.
In a recent note sent out to investors, Jonas put an “Equal-weight” rating on TSLA and reduced his price target to $242.
Additionally, Jonas predicts that the Model 3 will be late to launch by over 1 year:
“We continue to forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 (more than 1 year later than company target) with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020.”
It’s not just the delayed launch that has investors uneasy though. According to Jonas, volume will be significnatly lower than Tesla’s predictions. Tesla continues to suggest that somehow it’ll make 400,000 Model 3s in 2018 (a figure we too think is unachievable), while Jonas says the automaker will make just 60,000 units in 2019 and 130,000 Model 3s by 2020. Clearly the numbers don’t line up.
But Jonas does have a long hitsory of being accurate when it comes to Tesla, so…
“The bigger mission remains developing a sustainable transportation ecosystem. We estimate Tesla’s global fleet drives around 5 million miles per day with around 1/3 of these miles on autopilot. We also estimate the pace of daily miles traveled to double in just over 1 year, putting Tesla in a very unique position to push the state of the art of algorithmic driving and machine learning in personal transport… key pillars of accident free driving. The statistically significant safety data analysis can have a potentially powerful impact on perceptions of regulators, consumers and investors.”
Less than a year away from Tesla’s targeted launch date, we’ve still yet to see the production 3. It may be shown next Spring, but that’s not guaranteed.
Here’s our take…“volume production and deliveries of Model 3 in the second half of 2017,” minus “volume” from the statement and Tesla may be right. Add “volume” back into the equation and we tend to think Jonas’ “very end of 2018” may indeed end up being more accurate, as Tesla’s track record at hitting deadlines, and then achieving volumve production thereafter has not been the best.
Source: Smart Stock News