Tesla 2017 Sales – Model 3 Disappoints In Record Year

Tesla Model 3


Tesla model X P100D

Drumroll, please.

Every previous end-of-quarter sales report for Tesla has been hotly anticipated, but none quite like this one for the 4th quarter of 2017 — a period of time in which the automaker has been desperately trying to ramp up production of its new Model 3 after experiencing a battery manufacturing bottleneck and missing its delivery targets in the previous quarter. Well, the time for guessing is over, for now.

Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

The magic numbers for the last three months of 2017 are thus:

  • Tesla Model S –  15,200
  • Tesla Model X – 13,120
  • Tesla Model 3 – 1,550
  • Total Q4 deliveries: 29,870

For the electric automaker, the result is their best quarter to date, even without the Model 3 component, and is a 27% increase over Q4 2016. It also marks an increase of  9% over last quarter.

For the year, total production amounted to 101,312 vehicles, a 33% improvement over 2016’s production.

As usual, Tesla was left with some vehicles built, but not yet delivered that will go towards the first quarter of 2018’s numbers. Lumped together, that number for the Model S and Model X is 2,520, while 860 Model 3 sedans were left awaiting delivery to their new homes. That’s certainly a lot fewer than at least one analyst had predicted.

Speaking of Model 3, it seems like that although the bottleneck has been eased, production targets have been pushed back somewhat. Previously, CEO Elon Musk had said the production rate of this important new car would reach 5,000 per week by the end of Q1 2018. Now, Tesla has pushed that ramp back to the end of the 2nd quarter.

As of the last week of December, the company says it only managed to build 793 examples of its smallest offering, though finds a silver lining, pointing out that the production rate at the end of the quarter had reached 1,000 per week. Since it can talk up the rate of production, the statement from the company (below) brings up its “focus” on  “quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time.” Certainly, no one can say that Tesla doesn’t need to make improvements in quality, as the same could be said for any company, really. But, there is no doubt that this flattening of the “S curve” will disappoint waiting customers and investors.

Tesla’s statement on its Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

In Q4, Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles, of which 15,200 were Model S, 13,120 were Model X, and 1,550 were Model 3. This was once again our all-time best quarter for combined Model S and X deliveries, representing a 27% increase over Q4 2016, and a 9% increase over Q3 2017, our previous best quarter.

In total, we exceeded our previously announced guidance by delivering 101,312 Model S and X vehicles in 2017. This was a 33% increase over 2016.

In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018.

Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3. As we previously indicated, we slightly reduced Model S and X production in Q4 because of the reallocation of some of the manufacturing workforce towards Model 3 production, which also caused inventory to decline.

During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week. As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3’s since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point. This is why we were not able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Model 3 deliveries to non-employee customers are now accelerating rapidly, and we’re confident our customers will love them.

As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2.

We’re very grateful to everyone at Tesla who has poured their heart and soul into helping with the Model 3 ramp and creating the progress we are seeing. We’re also very appreciative of our Model 3 customers, who continue to stick by us while patiently waiting for their cars.

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

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176 Comments on "Tesla 2017 Sales – Model 3 Disappoints In Record Year"

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Guess the next few days are a great opportunity to buy more Tesla stock?

Perhaps. I just want to know if they’ll deliver a single $36,000 Model 3 before the end of Q2, when the tax credit is halved.

I have a Day 1 reservation and a Model 3 for $30K after taxes and fees would be great ($36K base Model 3 + $4,000 sales tax and registration – $7,500 tax credit – $2,500 CA rebate).

My fear is that they’ll only produce the Long Range cars until demand for Long Range cars start to wane. Same with the $5,000 Premium Upgrades; 90% of that is pure profit. The owners manual doesn’t have the diagrams and specs for the base center console (no lid) or manual seats yet; who knows if they’ve even been produced.

Wouldn’t their revised delivery schedule make it possible to postpone the tax credit phaseout by one quarter?

It is TOTAL number of cars delivered by a car maker not by model, so Model S and X count toward the maximum.

Yet, funny enough, on the first half of my shopping trip today, I saw 2 Tesla’s: both Model X! No Model S’s!

I suspect, in Q1-2018, we will start to see Model X sales % start to surpass Model S sales %! Basically, as the Demand for the SUV grows, and production grows, it can pass the Sedan finally! If not by Q1, watch for it in Q2!

Dr. Miguelito Loveless

It looks like the timing for 200K cars is going to be April, so you will have full credit until the end of September.

You should be fine.

Tesla has made ~161571 vehicles deliveries in the US so far, ~40K away from tax credit cutoff. I’d surmise they’ll try to cross the 200K threshold at the begining of a quarter, most likely Q2, at which point they’ll have the remainder of that quarter AND the full quarter following at 100% credit. So as it sits, full credit is in place at least ’till end of Q3, with Q4 being halved and Q1 ’19 offering final credit availability at 25% of original.

Walt, the $3750 and $1875 tax credits will last for 2 quarters each, so if Tesla or GM sells their 200,000th car on 9/29/2018 (end of 3rd Quarter), they will see their credit reduced to $3750 on 1/1/2019 and to $1875 on 7/1/2019.

But if they sell #200,000 on 10/1/2018 (beginning of 4th Qrtr), they will see their credit reduced to $3750 on 4/1/2018 and then reduced to $1875 on 10/1/2018.
Given how slowly Tesla has ramped up the sales of the 3, they will have at least another quarter of full credit in 2018. And I will bet that foreign sales of all Teslas will jump next summer, thereby giving Tesla an additional quarter of full credit to really get the 3 sales up to speed in the 2 quarters following Tesla selling #200,000.

Ooops! Per: “But if they sell #200,000 on 10/1/2018 (beginning of 4th Qrtr), they will see their credit reduced to $3750 on 4/1/2018 and then reduced to $1875 on 10/1/2018.” Add a 1.

Becomes: ‘But if they sell #200,000 on 10/1/2018 (beginning of 4th Qrtr), they will see their credit reduced to $3750 on 4/1/2019 and then reduced to $1875 on 10/1/2019.’

Dont believe it. It’s all fake news. Tesla is building more cars than expected. Their stock is doing good, their beating the competition. Trump is great. Honestly, I don’t know what to believe, I just hope I get my Tesla soon.

5,000 per week in Q4 2017. I mean, 5,000 in Q1 2018. I mean, let’s just shoot for Q2.

I’m so disappointed.

They are producing at a rate of 52,000 cars per year right now, twice the next highest US EV.

Not 52000 completed cars for sure. There are thousands of partially finished cars that people have shared photos of in various lots. That’s what happens when there isn’t a completely proven and hardened supply chain. You need to double back and finish those that are piling up upstream. The current sales rate in December is only 12,000 annualized.

52,000 per year rate (1000 per week) based on last few days of month, according to their financial report.

The wording of that claim makes it suspect. And I’m sorry to say but at this point you need to pay attention to that sort of thing with Tesla.

They achieved a rate of 1000 cars per week over a few days, but that doesn’t mean they have achieved sustained production at that level. It could very well have been another “short burst”.

When we see a whole month with 4000 cars produced then they’re actually achieving that production. Until that point skepticism is still warranted.

Wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla cranked out those 793 Model 3s (probably many not 100% finished) just so they could feed the “1k cars/week” line to investors. They’ve cooked the financial books in the past (see Q3 2016 earnings), so would not be a surprise if they “cooked the line” as well.

So, if they were ‘Only’ able to produce 750 (not 793) per week, each and every week in January 2018, they could make at least 3,000 for January!

However, since they made over 2400 in this past Quarter, but only 260 in Q3, that is 90% of the way to 10X the production! Or a ramp up to 9x the capacity in production!

Or, going from just over a simple linear average if 80 per Month in Q3, to 800 per Month in Q4, with the last week almost doing that on its own, at 793 units!

Pretty sure they can make 1,000+ per week starting next week (1st full week post new years break!), and about 800 were likely built this week, so 3,800+ in January is my Target! 4,000 is very possible, if then, only the last week of January builds 1,200!

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

“That’s what happens when there isn’t a completely proven and hardened supply chain.”

Kind of like the huge company that’s been building cars for many many years suddenly has a bottleneck and exhibits the same problem?


Totally unfair. VW has been forced to tell the truth for a change.

VW is not building 52,000 e-Golfs a year, nor are they claiming to.

“There are thousands of partially finished cars that people have shared photos of in various lots.”

Hey, let’s just express poorly informed opinions as if they’re facts! 🙄

More like, there are hundreds of completed Tesla cars awaiting shipments in various lots; a sign that Tesla’s production is growing. Larger auto makers have thousands or perhaps tens of thousands sitting in lots awaiting shipment at any time.

Trying to mis-characterize an obvious and straightforward result of increased production as somehow “strange” or “bad” just because Tesla is doing it, is a favorite trick of serial Tesla FUDsters.

Go Tesla!

This final figure was low by my expectations, which were based off the number of folks who took delivery whom I knew.

That said, Tesla vehicles sitting in lots not in owners’ hands is their usual delivery team chaos. Worst case, they need delivery detailing. The postulate that they are unfinished at a delivery center is not something I understand. Why would you do that?

Considering the fact that They were between 2000 and 2500 Model III’s manufactured, I’m OK with that, but man, how hard is it to do a delivery, anyway? You define a business process, you model it, you automate it to a user interface, and give every delivery agent a tablet that can access that interface. They take it home, sleep with it on their night stand. I’d be running a tighter ship if this were my to-do here.

While Tesla can deliver software updates ‘Over The Air’, they are not generally doing Military Air Drops to get cars out quicker! Trains, and Auto carriers might be overbooked at this year end season, too!

If they had snags that got cleared a couple weeks faster than they expected, this combination of start a good ramp up, could deliver a bunch of vehicles not strictly able to be shipped!

Elon said some 800+ Model 3’s were ‘In Transit’, which at year end, was only about a weeks production, but 3 weeks earlier, could have been 3-4 weeks production!

Meaning, that even then, did anyone do a hard count of these ‘Random Sightings’ of various Model 3 ‘Holding Locactions?’

Did All The VIN’s get identified and logged, and rechecked, day after day, for the last 6 weeks?

How motivated, were these witnesses? How much time did they have to go back and review and recheck each day for a week, even? (Never mind at least 6 weeks fir a more complete picture and data collection!)

I agree, Viking79. I wish that they had been able to meet their super high predictions, but as long as they keep increasing their weekly production I will be a happy camper and their bottom line will eventually benefit from the increased sales.
Elon is his own worst enemy some times. He is bombastic and kind of likes to blow his own horn a bit too much.
But the fact is that 1,000 3’s a week is a lot of BEV’s. Given the demand for 3’s, they will be sold out into late 2019 at the very least.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

That’s good news. I plan to buy in 2020.

Of course, that is based, mostly on a static 455,000 Model 3 Reservations! From Last Quarters Summary Tally!

Might have been one or two more come in since then!? Elon said a net increase of about 1,800 Model 3 Reservations per day back then, some 6-8 weeks or so ago! Until the production rate exceeds that, the lineup is just growing!

So, now it seems like Early to Mid February, just to balance incoming interest! That interest is also starting to grow, as the Tesla Model 3 stories keep getting press! In about 5-6 weeks, Elon should be able to give updates on this activity, with the Financial report and investors call! If the right questions are asked!

Even at 52,000, not even close to double. The Bolt came in at 3227 for Dec. (average over a whole month – a much better measurement than Telsa’s claim), which is about 39,000/year.

Add those Bolts sold abroad and you have the total production comparable to the Model3 output.

Don’t worry 🙂

Sooner or later they will be at 5000 cars per week.
And when they do, they will own 25% of the luxury car market in the US. Many haters will choke on that 🙂

Tesla’s ~500k reservations are worldwide. We don’t know what the percentage is in the US.

‘So Disappointed’?
Did Elon skip your Appointment?

Oh, he’s disappointed all right… disappointed at how much money he’s losing by shorting TSLA stock!

Go Tesla!

As in: ? ? ? ?

If you really are dissappointed you are naive.

At this point Tesla must manage their delivery schedule so as to hit 200,000 U.S. deliveries very early in Q2 (or Q3???) and then go as fast as they can while the full credit lasts. Based on this financial reality 5,000/week by the end of Q1 would have been too much.

When the credits are gone and the true believers have gotten their cars we will see what the real demand is.

@dan, I’m naive because Tesla doesn’t want to produce a lot of Model 3’s until they hit the US 200k mark. So, they really aren’t trying to produce in volume, yet.

Gotcha. Thanks for the education.

“…and the true believers have gotten their cars…

I remember the same line of reasoning about the Model S in 2012.

Dream on, man.

It’s OK! For Every dreamer like that, another Nightmare for them comes along, in the form of More Buyers!

Hardly a surprise. When he said 5k a week end of the 1st quarter, I balked at that, saying if they hit 3k a week by then it would more in line with my expectations.

This is also more in line with my predictions. I figured they were more than 3 months behind schedule–more like 6–and that the ramp up wouldn’t happen until mid-2018.

That being said, I think Tesla could benefit from being a bit more forthright in their predictions. Making promises they obviously aren’t going to be able to keep doesn’t help the company’s reputation.

“…I think Tesla could benefit from being a bit more forthright in their predictions. Making promises they obviously aren’t going to be able to keep doesn’t help the company’s reputation.”

Yes, that’s a lesson Elon Musk seems incapable of learning. 🙁

I agree. He needs to step back off the big predictions that are way, way, off.
There is, like Nimzovich wrote, Theory & Practice.

Juuuuust a slight miss of the 100-200k Model 3 sales goal in 2017 Elon made.

Elon’s mouth is in overdrive while his companies production level for the 3 is barely into 2nd gear. Situation normal.
But they will get the 3 production rate into overdrive eventually. And the car is simply an outstanding vehicle. So there is that.

Maybe that’s why he stutters so badly. His brain processes speech faster than his mouth can move.

Nah. Let’s not devolve into that.

Keep concentrating on the schedules never met.

How can they do this with a one speed reduction gearbox????

Best get used to that – people still “run out of steam” despite the fact that we haven’t had trains with boilers and pistons for 50 years.

There is also some irony that “overdrive” is used to refer to traveling or speaking at high speed in an uncontrolled manner when an overdrive gear is essentially there to allow you to drive slower and more efficiently.

It is not so You Drive more slowly, but so the Engine, while you are cruising steadily, is Turning Fewer Revs! Less RPM = Less wear & less fuel pushed through! (But less power, hence used for steady state cruising!)

I have been amused by my own oxymoron when I write about Tesla “shifting into a higher gear” on its production. 😀

No doubt people will still talk about stomping on the “gas pedal”, too!

I have, finally, gotten used to saying accelerator pedal, but it took a couple years. Don’t expect me to stop using “overdrive” as well!

It’s just “the pedal” for those of us who drive an i3! I haven’t touched the brake in nearly 6 months.

From the clip in ‘Who Killed The Electric Car’, “….they have this thing…called …a Pedal….!” ?

“outstanding vehicle”. Yeah it’s standing outside in the rain. And it’s pouring.

“an outstanding vehicle”
Apart from an autonomous interior, inside a car that has to be driven, you’re mostly right.

And they evolve there cars incrementally.
They just get better and better, even those on the road.

And MadBro….the best quarter ever for Tesla.

A win-win for everyone not a hater.

Not a best quarter for the Model S. YoY sales down. Demand seems to be waning for the S.

Probably that is why I am seeing More Model X’s in traffic these days!

Yup. The performance of Tesla, the company, continues to outstrip most analyst predictions, and is a win-win for everyone except Big Oil shills and Tesla haters.

Go Tesla!

People seem surprised that Elon talks as an optimist. Is it possible that it takes that kind of personality to do what he has done with Tesla and his rocket company?? Gasp!!!!! If there is a down-side to being an optimist, then I’ll take Elon any day. People with pessimistic attitudes don’t seem to accomplish such great things. Right 1999? Seems like Elon’s downsides (and, are they really that bad???) are a fair trade-off.

Wow! One of the few comments that actually makes any sense in this whole forum!

Nailed it!

That’s a great observation.


Most haters won’t achieve in a lifetime what Elon Musk does in an average working week.

They know that very well, hence all the criticisms from the peanut gallery.

If you’re fine with the countless broken promises and lies Elon spews, more power to you! Keep feeding Elon your money so he can keep the cash incineration engine going. 🙂

Cash Incineration, is what VW is doing, by Paying big fines, instead of just fixing their products, or moving to PHEV’s, when GM did, or to a decent EV back when Nissan got out the Leaf!

Can’t tell me they never heard of the first generation Tesla Roadster, by 2008-2009, either!

Sure, they didn’t pay it much attention, but even BMW was working test EV’s back then!

Bro will never understand this fact.

Yep, like all bitter narcicissts–MadBro is a “legend in his own mind”.

Yes, but the Model 3 is now at a production rate much higher than the Bolt EV already.

For a couple of days? How do you know the output for the best two days of the Bolt?

The M3 will get there and be a great car. I don’t know why people need to make up fairy tales to justify their enthusiasm.

Look at it this way, they will need only 2-3 more months to overtake the total sales of your beloved sh***y Bolt.

Yeah, MadBro’s Tesla hater campaign is gonna look more and more silly and irrelevant as Tesla takes over the lead in PEV sales; a lead which will only widen over the coming year!

But hey, if serial Tesla bashers want to keep reminding us of what LOSERS they are… We can just point and laugh!

😆 😆 😆

you forgot your Go Tesla!

It’s implied. 😉

Yes, coocoo1999 looks more and more silly as time progresses. Funny how people like that can’t even find one compliment. Really, truly, is there really that much to complain about here?

Short term, myopic thinkers are rarely that successful.

I guess it’s more fun to urinate on a true success than to be your own.

Honestly, he should get out of mom’s basement more.

And there’s people just as bad on the Tesla side, hating on GM constantly despite the fact that they’re the lead maker of EV’s in BigAuto land.

Their progressive development and future plans is very commendable. Yet people hate on them as bad or worse than what you’re faulting here.

Plenty of biases on both sides to go around, lots of Hatfield and McCoys infighting.

GM has a checkered past.

You’re absolutely right that they should be praised for good things and panned for the bad things they do.

Companies which produce no EVs are obviously worse.

They do and they don’t. Yes, they lobbied against CARB when EV mandates in the 90’s just weren’t cost effective yet.

But they have led the charge in the latest tech now that it is commercially viable.

They are a business and their first responsibility is profitability for their shareholders, so they won’t go “all in” on EVs and lose money doing so, but they’re far more committed than any other mainstream automaker.

They want their EVs to be successful so long as they maintain their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders.

They made the Volt as a response to the Tesla Roadster. How much credit do they really deserve?

I DO give them credit for being far better than most legacy automakers, but they aren’t even close to Tesla. Their best selling models are all trucks and SUVs. When they start adding plugs to ALL of those then I’ll be thinking about them as getting close to Tesla.

Stimpy, you can Thank Bob Lutz for moving GM off the dime – especially when he had to argue against an entire engineering team that electric cars of any kind were ‘Impractical’.

The Gen 1 Volt seems to me to be the SAFEST production vehicle ever made. GEN 2 I’m not so sure.

Now I part ways with MR. Lutz when he says Tesla will be bankrupt in a year, or that autonomous sales will kill the car dealership business in only a few years.

Current Dealers and current GM executives themselves would disagree with the latter statement, and, as far as Tesla going bankrupt, I’m Sure Tesla will do Just Fine as long as the stock market keeps going up.

They made the Volt in response to the Prius, not the Roadster (which should be obvious given the Volt’s target market). Bob Lutz wanted to make an expensive, high-tech BEV supercar as a response to the Roadster, but his subordinates convinced him that the Prius was the more important competitor.

False equivolent. GM (and it’s dealers) are currently lobbying against CAFE standards and for a dealership sales model that is loathed by most people. Until they stop these activities they are a bigger obstruction to progress than a solution.

GM is not their dealers. That, is a false equivalency. Different companies and management.

GM has spent money in a variety of states, and away from larger dealer networks, to thwart direct sales. That is pretty close to “GM is its dealers”, by action.

It’s not a bad car. No Model 3, but it gets a B from me.
I think the GM 20 bev’s by 2020, is a crock, but that’s GM for you.

ffbj the ‘hedge’ there by GM is ’20 electrified vehicles’ – defined here at least as NOT being primarily gasoline or Oil powered.

My hope is GM does *NOT* satisfy that forward looking pledge by coming up with 18 H2 powered vehicles (which of course won’t be available by me since we have no dispensing stations even planned – nor could anyone in poor Buffalo NY afford the cost of refueling), and then 2 ‘Badge-Engineered’ Bolt evs to be sold as a Buick and a Caddy, since I already own that car.

Of course GM is to be commended by defining ‘electrified’ vehicles that way. Other companies call vehicles electrified when all they are, are non-plug-in Hybrids. I just don’t want the ‘plug’ to be a 15,000 PSI Hydrogen hose.

Bill: “’20 electrified vehicles’ – defined here at least as NOT being primarily gasoline or Oil powered.” I still think when Automakers think of the Vehicle, they see it as a collection of Systems, just as the Prius is ‘Electrified’, and the Fusion Hybrid is!

Drivers, or users like us here, think of Hybrid, as being able to plug it in to a power socket, for cleaner operations, or on fuel if more range is needed: ELR & Volt Style! I frequently add a qualifier, though: ‘Plain Hybrid’, for cars like the Regular Prius I had!

Electrified is an umbrella Term, that covers from 48V micro start-stop, all the way to pure BEV, without being Clear, as in…”Chrystal!” It is a PC Term (Politically Correct), used on purpose, to distract!

1500 in three months, and 1000/week? seems like a very theorethical weekly rate. Maybe they built 140 one day and extrapolated?

They handed over to customers 1500 cars and produced around 1000 cars in the last week of December that could not be delivered yet. Remember the 860 model3 that are in transit.

So they produced around 2400 in 3 months, with a final run rate of 1000/week. Estimation: Makes the week before 600/week. Makes the week before 300/week. Makes the week before 200/week… Meaning 2100 in December. That would be reasonable. And 300 until December. Well ok…

Actually it says: “In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week. ” Which if you bother looking at a calendar ‘working days’ is not 7 days per week. That’s a carefully parsed set of words. Parsing is not a very impressive thing but every single press release is heavily parsed. Roughly translated that is: 1. 7 working days and 793. That’s a little less than the last half of December. OK. 2. So the ‘1000 per week comment is as follows. a. There was no week they made 1000 cars. b. There was no week that they did a pace of 1000 cars per week (such as shortened Christmas week). c. There was no day that a pace of 1000 cars per week was made. d. last few days…hit…rate…on each…that extrapolates. They tested the lines varies segments of production with bursts. See also statements from previous months about such ‘bursts’. And not all at the same time and not all on the same day. So the last week… Read more »

Depending on how you interpret working days, that “last seven working days” quote could potentially encompass 12/20-12/31.

Even then, it looks like 2,400 could be built in January!

Looking like these are closing at $75K+ on ebay; considering the original buyer keeps the federal tax credit (if you qualify) and since 99% have been California deliveries, you get the $2500 state incentive…

So even if you hired a professional ebay auto service where they do everything for you to list the car, it’s pretty easy to clear $30K per new model 3…Biggest winner here are those who received their cars in 2017…

Once again: The original buyer does not qualify for the federal tax rebate. If he applies for it, that’s fraud. The rebate is only offered to those who plan to keep their car for at least 12 months after purchase.

There is no stipulation for 12 months in IRS paperwork. It is extremely gray: “The vehicles must be acquired for use or lease and not for resale.” Can you never sell your car? How long do you have to own it? What if I don’t like it and sell it a month later?


The Golden State will come asking for their rebate back if the original owner doesn’t keep the vehicle for at least 30 months…

That State $2,500 + the Fed $7,500. will be cutting into those lofty Tesla Model 3 profits.


Not a disappointment at all but rather part of their strategy.

They are smartly setting up the Model 3 production to absolutely maximize deliveries to take advantage of the tax credit wind down.

They will do everything they can to have their 200,000 US sale coincide with the end of a quarter and then make the push to manufacture and deliver in the US virtually every car they can make at surge production numbers until the credit goes away.

Working up to that point I’m sure they are optimizing for quality control and efficiency/fine tuning/training for the surge which I’m sure will include the first base models towards the end of the credit phase out.

And yes, the shills, shorters and haters will choke on their own bitterness and bile when it happens.

You’re being satirical right?

Let’s put the whole company at risk so that the guy posting on InsideEV’s named “Get Real” can get his $35,000 Model 3 with a tax credit. The stuff that goes on in your mind …..

I’m not going for a base model so there goes your argument.

I’m simply pointing out that Tesla will ramp production to move as many cars during the credit wind-down and in order to do that they will at some point when LR reservations start to tail off, start making the base battery versions.

This will in no way hurt Tesla.

Ok, now back to reality: they’re having trouble ramping production. It’s not part of some grand plan, it’s just a problem they have to work through.

“As of the last week of December, the company says it only managed to build 793”

Wow 🙁

I’m disapointed yet again. I was starting to think my conservative estimate of 1000 was a sure thing…

C’mon Tesla. My wife isn’t gonna wait for her Model 3 forever! 😛

I totally misread this! 793 in the last week of December. 1060 for the month. YAY! lol

That still is not a terribly impressive number… but at least I feel better knowing that they bested my guesstimate!

793 per week is 38k per year. Sadly that would make it the top selling BEV.
At this point the question is how much of a lead.

Possibly none if the Bolt’s sales keep increasing as they have been.

Of course, you got to think: Bolts Sales keep increasing, but Tesla can’t exceed 800 Model 3’s a week! Through All of 2018!

The model 3 numbers are a bit of a relief for me – 1000 car in a month is a mass production rate and probably, hopefully, means that they have one fully functional line now moving.

Everyone gets really excited at the beginning when looking at a new anything. Out come the hockey stick graphs and every predicts the war will be over by Christmas. Mixed metaphors aside, if Tesla can gradually increase production over the next 6 to 12 months from 1000 cars a week things will be pretty rosy next year. 5,000 cars a week is massive, 20,000 cars a month is more than the entire EV market in the USA at the moment. It might not be exciting for the stock market but a sustained steady push from here will be pretty transformation for the auto-industry in the USA.

Is that 20,000 Tesla’s a Month, or 20,000 Model 3’s (Plus S & X)?

“1,550 were Model 3”

Wow, that is really low. I thought they would be doing at least that much in November alone. With the delay, I thought they would have hit that rate by December at the latest.

It is really hand building process then. That is really concerning since the delay will cause potentially more “churns and changes” in the car in the next few months. Maybe it is a good thing that I won’t get my Model 3 until later this year.

But I guess the tax credits might run out sooner at the current pace.

Hopefully, it will be up and running by June! I want my blue Model 3!!!

Relax. Ford only sold 675 police interceptors and they aren’t hand built. Only 1416 c-maxes and they aren’t hand built. For Dec.

“It is really hand building process then.”

Seriously? 1550 cars in a quarter is “hand built”?


“For the year, total production amounted to 101,312 vehicles, a 33% improvement over 2016’s production.”

So now I can update this chart:

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

Go Tesla!

😀 😀 😀

Hi PP, do you know if there is any breakdown by country on Tesla global sales?
or even RHD Vs LHD Sales?

Nice graph – almost perfectly linear

Y = 20000x + 2000

Love it, so much for exponential growth. I never really understood why people think exponential growth is so important anyway. Going from zero to 100,000 in 5 years it pretty bloody good.

Is not it stupid fat fingers

I Model 3 production was at about 700 per week and rose by just 150 a week during the 12 Weeks of Q1, they could produce 18,900 this Quarter!

Oops! It would actually be 13 weeks in the Quarter, so 20,800 would equal 700+850+1000+1150+1300+1450+1600+175to+1900+2050+2200+2350+2500; assuming the first week of January is just 700, and they add just 150 more each week, for 12 more weeks!

So, if right on a straight line increase of just 150+ each week: they could make 20,800 Model 3’s, nail the 2,500 per week in the last week, and be progressing well to the next step up of 5,000 per week, in another 13 weeks!

It seems you are mixing production numbers and delivery numbers.
2017 deliveries are 103084.

The increase in 2017 is a bit low for Tesla, but I can’t wait to see the results of 2018 and 2019 🙂

According to the press release: “In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week. As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3’s since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point. This is why we were not able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Model 3 deliveries to non-employee customers are now accelerating rapidly, and we’re confident our customers will love them. As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2.” That means Q1 rates of 1000/wk, Q2 2500/wk, and Q3/Q4 of 5000/wk (it says “by… Read more »

PS that means mine will come in July-Aug, which is what I have been predicting for a while now (I am in the 50,000s).

“175500 Total for 2018”
That looks like a doable best case a.t.m., if nothing makor goes wrong.
Objectively, it’s quite a decent number for first full year of production of a new EV.
Problem is, it’s ~half of what Tesla was planning and promising (since overall stated prediction was 500K for all models globally in 2018, say 150K at most of those were to be Model S/X).
That’s a big shortfall. Tesla management need to start behaving like a public company and not like a startup.

The best US sales rate was the Leaf selling 30k a few years ago. If Tesla sells half their 177.5k 3’s this year here in the States and half abroad, that would be 87k 3’s vs. 30k Leafs. More than double the previous record. I will take it.
Time to separate Elon’s bombastic boasts/predictions from what is not only good enough, but great. 87k sales in the US in 2018 would not only be a record, it would be great for the eventual electrification of the US Light Vehicle Fleet.

I can’t believe, Ford Focus Electric sales surpassed Model 3 sales for ALL OF 2017!!! I thought the FFE would get blown away in the first month if not the first week of Model 3 sales. I know the lead won’t last but Ford will always be able to say that it sold more FFEs than Tesla sold Model 3s the first year Model 3 was on the market.

Go ffe! The 3 did manage to cream the leaf in sales for Dec. They also destroyed the Ford G T which only had 9 sales.

By the end of Feb. The 3 will likely be the top selling plug in vehicle in the US.

Ha! FFE could beat LEAF for Dec. sales. The LEAF sales are way more disappointing than the 3 sales.

The Leaf basically isn’t being sold right now. It’s hard not to do better than nothing.

The 2018 Leaf will absolutely destroy the FFE in sales, by the end of February here in NA.
Take your victory laps now, when the getting is good for the FFE.

I have to say that I am really disappointed with EV sales in 2017. I thought this was going to be the breakout year for EVs with the Bolt EV leading the charge. 1965 was a breakout year for Ford with some 400,000 Mustang sales, no EV model even came close to that number.

I think Chevrolet dealers are going to continue to stifle Bolt EV sales in 2018. The only EV model that I think has a chance of a breakout is the Model 3 and now a Model 3 breakout is starting to look very unlikely. I was thinking EV sales would at least double in 2018 but now I think another 20 or 30 percent gain would be more realistic.

Bolt is production constrained.

Sort of hard leading the charge with less than 25k. Ford Fusion redesign scotched.
Peak auto is upon us. Expect sales to drop between 7-10%, for legacy makers.

Yes. GM targeted 30K, said they could make as many as 50K without reconfiguring other production at Orion, and came in at almost 40K in a year where the first half was a ramp. That’s about as good as can be expected. If they continue to move well, they can easily add a second line at Orion (since they have well developed tooling and process) and double to 100k/year if they like.

Interesting times.

I am still betting for doubling plug in sales in 2018 to 400k.

Just the (1-2%) ZEV mandates kicking in for 2018 should be enough to boost sales by a six figure value, across CARB states.

>breakout year for EVs with the Bolt EV leading the charge

this sentence doesn’t compute logically. the only way to be breakout year was for early leaf 1.9 and model 3 launch which didn’t happened.

Well, FFE, where electrics are popular, the electricity is expensive.

And gasoline currently is very cheap.

Of course if the idiot powers-that-be start a good war against people who can fight back, that will drastically raise gas prices and ev’s will shine in comparison.

I just wish it didn’t take a war to do it.

This is great news and not a disappointment.

They produced “793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week” and this is a lot. Easily the Model 3 sales in 2018-01 will cross 4,000.

Forget those analysts; they are just con-analysts who made high prediction so that they can say disappointment later.

Remember, all that 99,000 + vehicles they sold are luxury expensive vehicles with the price tag of $75,000 +.

Tesla is rocking.

Agreed. Most thought tripling Nov. MODEL 3 sales in Dec. Would be great news.

Some stock shorting analysts way over predicted sales to help them make more cash.


I confess I got all excited by the so-called “analysts” predicting 2000, 3000, 4000 or even more Model 3 deliveries in December, but now I realize those were all (or at least mostly) just stock manipulators trying to pump up the stock, so they could dump it later.

I should have stuck to my own more modest projections for Tesla ramping up TM3 production. From ~345 deliveries in November to ~1060 in December; that’s excellent progress!

Go Tesla!

Really the news is better since they built almost 2000 in December but only delivered 1000 since production spiked at the end of the month so they did have time to deliver yet.

This doesn’t mean they’re going to hit 4000 in January at all. It’s possible, but frankly with the clever wording used in the statement I would doubt it. They haven’t achieved sustained production of 1000 per week. It will happen eventually, but it may not be in January.

So, if instead of 1,000 per week for each week of January, for a month total of 4,000 units, how about this:

1st Wk: 700
2nd Wk: 850
3rd Wk: 1,000
4th Wk: 1,150
3,700 for 4 Weeks.

It’s not much of a ramp up, compared to the pace reported from December 9th, but it gives a potential example that could be easily digested!

“Forget those analysts; they are just con-analysts who made high prediction so that they can say disappointment later.”

Con-analysts like Elon Musk you mean? He claimed only a couple of months ago that Tesla would make 20k cars in december. Whoops! I guess he is a Tesla hating oil company shill then?

LMFAO at Some troll out there.

There is a big difference between people like Musk who make something of value with their products that many people want to buy and people like you who short stocks and simply move money around.

M3 - reserved -- Niro/Leaf 2.0/Outlander - TBD

Minus Nissan, there’s no real intention to sell mass quantities of EVs by the major auto makers as long as they can squeeze profits out of their ICE.

Consumer demand simply hasn’t forced their hands.

Model 3 MAY do that if sufficient quantities are produced to change the conversation and create a mass market vehicle by a company willing to throw production behind it.

GM CAN do it and make a vehicle that with their upcoming Buick EV, but WILL they do it to siphon off their current CUV sales?

Fiat made an interesting change with the Pacifica and looks like a good move. Perhaps Honda Odyssey will stepup? 🙂

I think China is going to be a major game changer here. I think a lot of European countries are going to look at what China is doing in the way of promoting PEV sales over gasmobile sales, and say “We ought to be able to do at least as well as the Chinese!”

The USA will hopefully follow suit as soon as the Democratic party is in control of both the White House and both houses of Congress, which hopefully will happen in 2021. However, I doubt the carrot-and-stick approach here in the USA will be as draconian as it is in China.

GM doesn’t care where a sale comes from EV or ICE – it’s the same thing for them. And looking at the statistics many of their EV sales are conquest sales so that’s even better. What they can’t do is build EV’s at a rate that out paces demand. That’s the balance automakers are trying to balance between ICE and EV’s. A problem Tesla doesn’t have.

If the Buick EV is a small SUV/CUV it will definitely signal a shift with the balance since it hits right in the bullseye of demand right now. Also like with the Bolt GM will be a year or more sooner than the Model Y.

So, Tesla is pushing GM and their Buick CUV EV, even before revealing their own Model Y! Super! Master plan from Musk is working! Now, will GM bring an EV Pickup out before Tesla does, too?


Can the Monthly Plug-In Sales reports be split between the pure EVs and those with ICE so we have the clear monthly, yearly sales of pure EVs. It could even be the same spreadsheet, but with separate sections/totals and a grand total at the bottom.

I have often wondered about that too. It would be nice to see them separated. However, at the same time, it is also nice to see how their sales compare to each other. And even though PHEVs and BEVs are different, they do still compete with each other as people do cross-shop them. So if we are only given a single chart, it is probably best that it stays the way it is.

I agree, but how about different colours to distinguish the two?

I don’t know. According to the sales chart, they managed to deliver 1,060 Model 3s in December. While it isn’t anywhere near what was originally predicted a year ago, it isn’t bad compared to the previous months. That would put it 7th place for the month (unless the Fusion Energi surprises us tomorrow). While that doesn’t sound too great, it’s certainly better than 24th place, where it has been the last few months. And it sounds like they are ramped up to 1,000 units per week. So that’s 4,300 units per month or 52,000 per year. So that’s already a production rate twice as much as most other EVs. I would imagine in a few months time you’ll be seeing these all over the roads.

Well if there’s 860 in transit and they can build a thousand more in January than in December, Tesla should get to 3400 in January.

They moved employees from producing S to M3 and did not produce as many S-s as demand. So making 760 M3-s requires taking employees from S line?

You still think Tesla is production limited for the model S? Then why are they selling new inventory cars on their homepage? Tesla hasn’t been production limited for a long time.

So hopefully February will be the month that The Tesla Model 3 surpasses the Chevy Bolt in monthly delivery numbers?

Tesla needs to get the Model 3 production numbers out in front of both Chevy and Nissan. Maybe May will be where the Freemont factory turn rate gets Tesla Model 3 production in front of The Chevy Bolt and the Nissan Leaf combined, at least for North America.
Come on Elon, start cranking the M3 out in bigger numbers.

How many of the non-profit $35k M3s have been sold?

You want a base model to be built for you? “Ain’t nobody got time for that sh*t”

If they release a car in 2017 and state that it’s base price is $35k, then I assume they should sell at least one at that price during 2017?

A token base model just to say I told you so. It didn’t appear that they felt the need to make even that effort.

They’re busy and having a hard time producing and delivering the profitable Model 3’s to meet the lengthy demand. There is no motivation for that non-profit Model 3, despite some fan boys thinking that Elon wants them to have a cheap version of his car sooner than much, much later. The base model customer is essentially “Just wait over there. We’ll get to it when we have time. Next!”

As batteries become cheaper, perhaps the $35K version will become profitable.

To those who canceled their reservations, how soon did they get their deposit back?

Oh, they’re having a bit of a production hell with that one

“For the year, total production amounted to 101,312 vehicles, a 33% improvement over 2016’s production.”

The release says that number applies to S & X, and doesn’t name the 3 (don’t know if that’s a mistake or not). Not a big deal, but does this mean the total is 103,082 (S/X + M3’s 220 Q3 and 1550 Q4)?

It’s still the battery that is the biggest problem as yet. The bottle neck at the Gigafactory affected the entire supply line forcing a massive slow down of vender parts. The battery is the biggest most massive assembly to produce. It takes time to ramp up an assembly line like that and get enough battery’s shipped. They are big and bulky and you only ship so many at a time.

It’s looking increasingly likely that Tesla will fail to ramp Model 3 production more quickly than a traditional automaker would have.

Recall that M3 design was completed in mid-2016, but real volume won’t appear at least two years. That’s similar to the Bolt. Comparing time from prototype to initial production, the Bolt took a year, and so did the M3, if you’re generous when counting Tesla’s initially pathetic, hand-built output.

As an aside, I would take “burst” numbers with a grain of salt. To achieve peak production rate, hundreds of production steps have to be working perfectly. That occasionally happens, but it’s not the norm, and as the line speed increases, more things break. Production speed is very much a bell curve, and quoting a rate you can achieve only a fraction of the time is not useful.

First 6 months of sales:
Bolt – 6,529
Model 3 – 1,772

Just sayin’. 🙂

Ironic. It’s a first and a last all in one.

Did yor start that Bolt count from December 2016?

all these comments and not one person has pointed out that Tesla Model 3 PRODUCTION was nearly 2500 this last quarter.

Production is what we care about at this stage of the game.

ie…how fast has tesla got the line running.

IEV’s is quoting deliveries.

But out of those 2,500 produced, how much rework required? Only Tesla knows. One thing for sure, only deliveries put money in the bank.
At least it seems they are making progress but every month that goes by without really big production numbers, there is absolutely no way they can hold any kind of margin on this car.

How much rework?
Can’t be more than the ‘In Transit’ Vehicles, at worst!

Just for the record.

Good news sure brings out the trolls!

They’re making enough to cover the bonds!

Those that drive the car LOVE IT!

Those 2 things are all that will matter 5 years from now.

Once solar starts shipping, they wont have to carry the capital cost of that build out.

“[The] company says it only managed to build 793 examples of its smallest offering, though finds a silver lining, pointing out that the production rate at the end of the quarter had reached 1,000 per week.”
How do you build 1000 per week but only 793 per month?

Ron, check again: Actual Production for the Whole Last Week was 793, but since each day of that work week produced more cars than a previous day, they reached a point that 2 or 3 days production, extrapolated out to a full work week was, or exceeded, 1,000 Model 3’s per week!

As the week progresses, people get faster in hand operated activities, which are still part of the line; plus, they have worked on increasing the Robot Speeds, as well!