Survey Says: 40 Percent Of Global Respondents Likely To Buy An EV In Next Five Years

3 months ago by Steven Loveday 16

Tesla Model 3 – Upcoming affordable long-range vehicles entering the EV segment should prove to make people even more likely to go gas free.

Some 43,000 people in 52 different countries responded to a Dalia research survey regarding their likelihood to purchase an EV.

This is one of the more substantial surveys we have seen in awhile, and the results are quite promising.

Currently, the global market share for EVs sits around one percent. Timing for this survey is not necessarily in its favor, with the relatively new U.S. administration, lower gas prices, and still very few long-range affordable BEVs in the global market.

2017 Nissan LEAF

The pack of “100 or less mile range” vehicles available today are generally seen as overpriced, limiting (in terms of range), “oddly” designed, small, and often unavailable. Also, the general consensus in most places is that EV charging infrastructure is not up to snuff.

Nevertheless, in the U.S., 31 percent of those responding said that they plan to buy an EV in the next five years. In China, that number soars to 58 percent, and based on the country’s stringent guidelines to lessen carbon emissions, along with ever-increasing EV offerings in China, that number may end up even higher in reality.

Thailand’s results are even better than that of China, with 66 percent planning to go electric in the next five years. It comes as a bit of a surprise that Japan sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. Only 16 percent of Japan’s survey respondents plan to give up gas in the near future. The country tends to count more heavily on traditional (no plug) hybrids, and still has faith in a future hydrogen fuel cell revolution.

Back to North America … Canada‘s results mirror that of the U.S., at 31 percent, and Mexico sits at 39 percent. All in all, based on Dahlia’s research, North America as a whole has a lower percentage than the rest of the world.

While Germany is one of the top contenders in Europe’s push to lower emissions, its citizens may be too set in their old ways to believe in the future success of electric vehicles. This may be partly due to Germany’s major automakers – while they are all now announcing the EV push – having dragged their feet thus far. Only 22 percent of German citizens plan to be gas free by 2022.

Even in oil-rich Saudi Arabia, 45 percent of people surveyed plan to go electric.

Averaging all responding countries together brings us to about 4 out of 10 people worldwide are “likely” or “very likely” to get an EV in the next five years. If this holds true, or gets even better due to a change in conditions, we could see a considerable boost in global EV saturation by 2022.

The survey further proved the belief that range anxiety is still consumers’ greatest concern, so the upcoming longer range vehicles, and continuing infrastructure development, should help shift this. Also, respondents said that they will be more likely to buy an EV if fuel prices rise. In the U.S., gas is cheap right now, but in some countries where gas is very expensive, EV adoption is moving at a much faster clip.

Source: Green Car Reports

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16 responses to "Survey Says: 40 Percent Of Global Respondents Likely To Buy An EV In Next Five Years"

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “…in the U.S., 31 percent of those responding said that they plan to buy an EV in the next five years.”

    I’d love to see how the question was phrased, and how the survey was conducted. Was it a leading question? Was it a “push poll”? Was it a truly random sampling, or an internet opt-in survey?

    Without knowing more about the survey, it’s impossible to judge how much or how little it means.

    “It comes as a bit of a surprise that Japan sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. Only 16 percent of Japan’s survey respondents plan to give up gas in the near future.”

    Not at all surprising, once you realize that Japan has had a shortage of electricity due to foolishly shutting down almost all its commercial nuclear power plants. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

    1. Dave86 says:

      I had similar concerns about the survey

      However, I doubt the auto industry could ramp up to support this kind of volume in 5 years anyway.

    2. JIMJFOX says:

      Not any more?

      https://phys.org/news/2017-06-nuclear-wary-japan-restarts-atomic-reactor.html

      Most reactors will be re-started in the next, say 5 years. Why does Tokyo not have the pollution problems of other megacities?

  2. BillT says:

    I am very skeptical about that number for the US. Until we see readily available EV CUVs and mid-sized sedans with similar prices and usability to today’s ICE offerings plus most apartments offer at least L2 charging it is hard for me to see EVs crossing the 10% threshold in the US. I would be thrilled with 5% at this point.

    1. Mark.ca says:

      You assume that progress will be slow and will be left into the hands of the market….i bet at some time in the future ev will be pushed on everyone by policy makers.

      1. jlcii says:

        They would be absolutely foolish to do that, since as it is new car sales have been down the toilet lately. Force people into electric vehicles? You with single handily seen nothing but Mass protests, and total refusal, at best. V’s will not even be 25% of the market according to most analysts until the year 2050, so good luck with that…

      2. jlcii says:

        They would be absolutely foolish to do that, since as it is new car sales have been down the toilet lately. Force people into electric vehicles? You would single handily see nothing but mass protests, and total refusal, at best. EVs will not even be 25% of the market, according to most analysts, until the year 2050, so good luck with that…

    2. menorman says:

      I predict a 5% total out of California for this year and breaking 1.5% nationwide. Especially if the tax credit looks like it’s in trouble. Also, the oil industry is expecting a supply shortage and commensurate spike in prices around the end of the decade, which would be right around the time that everyone has announced that their EV will be hitting the streets anyway. If that comes to pass, a more perfect storm could not be brewing. If oil goes to $120 like some are thinking, we’re going to see at least 20% by 2020.

      1. Mark.ca says:

        “Also, the oil industry is expecting a supply shortage and commensurate spike in prices around the end of the decade”
        I’m not sure where you got that. There will be not shortage of oil especially now that consumption flattened and fracking tech keep advancing.

  3. Jim in Wisconsin says:

    Polls like this are a misleading. I remember reading Pew Research and also a Gallup poll around 2009. 55% of the 24-59 year old respondents identified as concerned about the environment. 35% of respondents were extremely concerned and claimed they would pay extra fees, taxes, etc. to help reduce the problem. At the time, there were 160 million licensed drivers in that age group. So what happened to the 35%? Of course many of them could not really afford the cars coming out. But there still should have been at least 2-3 million EVs sold in the first year, if you believe the polls from respected organizations.

    1. One says:

      Hell is full of good meanings but heaven is full of good works

    2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      Being willing to pay extra in fees and taxes is a group-level thing. If it’s an individual choice, people will act more selfishly.

      It’s a quid pro quo thing.

  4. Ken_3 says:

    Range and charging are primary concerns of people I know. Price is hindering more people in the lower income levels. I’ve tried to convince some people to buy off lease EVs because they are cheaper, and would cover their daily commute with ease.

  5. Murrysville EV says:

    Not a chance.

    After 7 years of EV availability, the US take rate is around 1% today. We’re supposed to believe it’s suddenly going to jump 30-fold in 5 years?

    There are many obstacles to EV ownership – charger cost and installation, winter range, battery degradation, long-distance travel concerns, and service support. On that last point, I never took my Leaf to the local garage for tires or inspection because I knew they wouldn’t even be able to drive it.

    My biggest concern about EVs (having already had one, and eagerly awaiting the Model 3) is depreciation, which directly correlates with battery degradation. Consumers who do their homework (which EV buyers do) will quickly realize depreciation on EVs can be dreadful.

    Such surveys serve only to whip up fanboy praise; they have no basis in reality.

    1. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      The Green Car Reports page indicates that the survey was about consideration and how likely it was that their next car would be electric.
      The 40% quoted was “Very likely or likely”.

      But most people aren’t well informed about EVs, so what they say they’re going to do doesn’t not correlate exactly to what they will do.

      They probably like the idea and

      I really don’t think that the depreciation issue is a big deal. Holding value can help some car sales, but there are plenty of cars that sell despite poor resale value.

      In any case, I expect the next generation of cars to hold value better. It’s the combination of incentives and rapid improvement that have killed resale values. As long-range BEV becomes the norm, the
      utility gap between generations will shrink and the utility of used BEVs will be much greater.

    2. Robert Middleswarth says:

      7 Years but how many EV are avabile today in the entire country? 4. 1) Nissan leaf, 2) Telsa Model S/X, 3) BMW i3, 4) Chevy Bolt.

      Of those 4 cars the closest EV I could go out and see in a lot is the Chevy Bolt EV at 69 miles, The Leaf is like 81 miles and I don’t remember actually seeing the BMW i3 in the list. Telsa closest cents is 2 1/2 hour drive away.

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