Sunshine Is The New Gasoline

JUL 4 2016 BY PEDER NORBY 57

My Fuel Station, 14 cents for regular, 9 cents for TOU.

My Fuel Station, 14 cents for regular, 9 cents for TOU.

It’s about the economy and the emissions. 

  1. The cost to power our two BMW i3’s by solar is the equivalent of $0.14 per gallon of gas.
  2. The GHG’s caused by our collective transportation choices are the largest source of emissions in California.
  3. In California, there are over 500,000 solar PV installations and 50% of all EV’s and PHEV’s sold.
  4. The emissions reduction of driving an electric car powered by solar energy (solar used as a transportation fuel) is 400% greater than the emissions reduction of the same amount of Solar used to power our buildings (solar used as utility fuel.)

Untitled

Sunshine is the new gas.  

Your home is the new gas station.

California is the Golden State,  basked in sunshine and leading the world in solar PV and electric vehicle adoption, development and manufacture.

The writing and case study herein is based on our “real world” experience as solar and EV pioneers over the past decade.  It just is what it is, put into practice in the real world, in our real lives…. and it’s getting cheaper and better with more EV&PV combos every year.

It’s a California located story, and this is not typical across the 50 states, but there is an old saying:  “So goes California, so goes the Nation.”

Today, California has over 500,000 homes with solar PV on the roof tops (data here) and over 50% of the National EV & PHEV sales, (data here)  both these numbers are rising exponentially.

Our state’s success is a sweet California Cocktail mixed with portions of innovation, entrepreneurialism, regulation, legislation, adaptive utilities, risk, incredible cities and self reliance.   It’s a cocktail best served warmed by sunshine.

This “California Cocktail” is slowly becoming popular in other states across the nation as renewable energy and EV adoption rates increase.

If you don’t want to drink the Kool-Aid California Cocktail, feel free to abstain and mock, but know this:

The rigid status quo will yield to a better and cleaner future.

Economics:

Julie and I completed our one year Driving to Net Zero energy challenge in May of 2015. (Article here) From the challenge we documented to the last kWh, the total miles and kWh’s used driving our two BMW i3’s for the year.

Here is the cost (in the image below and here) of a solar PV system in San Diego California.

Screen Shot 2016-06-10 at 10.16.04 AM

When you add the Driving to Net Zero Energy Challenge data to the cost of solar PV this chart is the result.

Screen Shot 2016-06-10 at 11.07.32 AM

The purchase of a Solar PV system when used as transportation fuel, has a payoff of two years and an ROI of 50%.   Simply take two years of gasoline cost and you arrive at the general cost of the solar PV system. It’s slightly higher than two years, however when Time Of Use Rates are factored in, it becomes slightly less than two years.  Of course your results will vary depending on location and the type of EV you drive.  The BMW i3 is by far the most efficient EV on the market (data here)

The cost of Solar fuel is 4% of the cost of gasoline averaged over a 25 year span. This translates to $0.14 per gallon flat cost and $0.09 per gallon when SDG&E favorable Time Of Use rates are factored in.

The solar PV system is warranted for 25 years including the micro inverters, it will last much longer than that.

Emissions. 
One gallon of gasoline when burned in a car emits 19.64 lbs. of GHG’s. (data here)
7 kwh of solar electricity (this will drive an electric car the same distance as a gallon of gas) emits zero GHG’s.

The same 7 kwh of electricity from the current SDG&E grid mix when used in our buildings contains .7 lbs of GHG’s per kWh for a total of 4.9 lbs of GHG’s.

(data here) The SDG&E grid mix is 37% renewable energy with the remainder Natural gas, thus the reason for the lower .7 lbs number.

As cities in California and elsewhere make Climate Action Plans to lower their emissions, the 100% renewable energy platform as relates to our buildings energy use is a very popular tool with the public as the public understands solar as a utility cost savings.  What is lessor understood is the use of solar as a transportation fuel.

If we are to use emission reductions as our number one goal, and we use science and common sense, not populism, to guide us, we would come to a strategy that uses 100% of renewable energy generation to offset transportation emissions resulting in a reduction of total GHG’s that is 400% greater than a strategy that uses 100% renewable energy generation to offset utility supplied electricity for our buildings.  Of course doing both is the best answer, but the fastest and best path is clearly transportation.

Focusing on a strategy that targets the 59% source at a 400% greater yield in GHG savings is preferable to focusing on a strategy that targets the 15% source at a yield that is 400% less.

Solar is getting less expensive, EV’s are getting better and less expensive,  Range is going up across all models with 200 miles of range as a new standard. our homes are becoming our gas stations,  our cost of fuel is getting lower.

*Editor’s Note: This post appears on Peder’s blog. Check it out here.

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57 Comments on "Sunshine Is The New Gasoline"

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Great report.

This is eco-troll :
Some young engineers from the ÉTS, High Tech School in Montreal, have built a system to replace the ICE of 9 out of 10 light trucks. So far so good, but the beauty of it is that this drivetrain (+1,000,000 km life span) can BE MOVED to another truck when it becomes too old!

(in french)

Too opinionated.

Here in North Carolina where we don’t have TOU yet, I am only achieving $.25 cents per gallon from the Carolina blue sky mine. As you say Peder, that is not from prediction rather actual data. Though not as impressive as $.14 cents, it’s pretty darn good for the opposite coastline. We too are offsetting our total energy emissions for both household and transportation. Our goal over the next five years is to add a smallish battery in the 7-15kWh range to do our part to eliminate peak load demand. We will do it for a lot of reasons. For one, we are not offered net metering so our cost is higher. Furthemore, when a utility minded person argues how we are straining the grid or not doing our part by paying transmission lines yada yada yada, then we want to look them cold in the eye and respond, “I thought the real cost was about TOU and peak demand?” The first phase of energy storage is not based on independence yet only supplying the ultimate peak demand storage. While everyone can not put up their own array due to physical limitations, ask your politicians what they are doing about… Read more »

Hi Mark H.

Just to add my experience relative to solar PV for any that are considering it:

IMO don’t go with micro inverters if you want battery backup. These micro inverters are usually installed one per panel and they make it difficult to add battery storage later. It can be done with our older enphase inverters but it is quite expensive. I have these enphase micro inverters and I wish I had gone central inverter.

Go with a central inverter that is designed for battery backup.

Want to save $ over a Tesla power wall?

Buy a used Leaf pack and DIY.

A least part of the array on a central inverter. Like most of us DIYs, we did the micro inverters for easy installs. I put my array 200 ft from the house so a long AC run vs a DC run made for less voltage drop, thus the micros. I have three branch circuits in my array. More than likely I am going to replace one of the branch circuits with a central inverter when I ultimately add a battery.

I don’t know how cheap a used Leaf battery is yet, but I went to a dealers auction in Atlanta Ga where there are a lot of used Leafs for sale. On that particular day they sold 170 Leafs, one every 30 seconds. There were some that could be purchased for as low as $6K. I gotta believe the used battery could be found for $4K.

Now I need your electrical know how George to re-package them to work with a controller. Don’t you want to make a vist to the east coast? =)

One other thing to add for people looking into doing this. You can figure out how much electricity you will get out of your system by taking the nameplate rating and assuming 5 hours per day at that power.

The 5 hour number is good for Az. So adjust accordingly.

Once you know how many kwh’s your potential system will put out you can run the numbers on payoff.

georges said:

“Want to save $ over a Tesla power wall?

“Buy a used Leaf pack and DIY.”

Is anybody out there selling a BMS* that can be set to control a used Leaf pack?

I’m impressed when I read a report of someone who has the skills in both electrical engineering and computer hacking to program their own BMS for a home solar system. But few people are capable of that.

The rest of use, even those with the interest and ability to do some DIY, would probably need a 3rd party BMS and clear instructions on how to program it to control a Leaf pack.

*Battery Management System

There’s some bad “science” here. Measuring the GHG from the panels after they are installed, and the i3 after delivered, leaves some GHG, ahem, up in the air.

I guess you could make a similarly specious argument about the GHG from the grid, once the electricity is already on it.

Julius Cesar is happy you mentioned his people … as goes Carthage, so goes the empire.

Yup! I agree, bad science… So let’s measure also GHG from extracting, shipping, refining, distributing and (ahem) conquering territories for the black poison, the difference would become a 1000% instead of 400%.

Then let’s do the same for dollars spent on wars and externalized pollution 😉

And lets not forget the hidden but additional costs of social, economic and political terrorism and counter terrorist activities …

Go Solar!

Don’t forget the GHG from flatulent dinosaurs.

I can’t also help but notice that this is a grid-tie system, so as a result of that, you’re still belching GHGs to charge your car at night. Sure, your panels are doing their job at reducing the necessity of belching GHGs during the day, but there’s only so much they can do. There’s just no way they’ll ever cover the morning and evening peaks.

Unless you work nights and park your car to charge during the day?

An even better way to do it would be to put the solar panels at work, and only charge at work. Then you’re guaranteed to maximize your GHG reduction. Getting permission to do so would be problematic though.

People wanting efficiency will drive Prius or the like, not 24 MPG car. Then the gas car would be about 1/2 the cost (about 80K)

You’re using base rate for SDGE, but most people will pay much higher tier. You can get TOU, but unless no one’s home during the day (ie, no kids), TOU will cost more than tiered billing. Adding an EV will push them over to much higher tier, as much as $0.40/kWh. Then SDGE could be double at about 90k, more than gasoline.

Two i3 using 6.6kW will need 13.2 kW to be entirely on solar. Then even at $2.1k/kW (which is way low), that’s 26k. At 5% compound interest (in form of GM dividend), 25 years would be about 60k. Since you’re comparing future cost of gas + SDGE, you have to do the same with solar.

One could argue that you don’t need 13.2kW, but only 3kW by having SDGE take up the slack. Then you have to include SDGE cost in solar. Then you run into the problem of when to charge and if (when?) netmetering will go away.

My point being, the difference is not as dramatic as you make it out to be.

I love articles like these that completely try and fool you. As you said the tiers are what kill you, especially with SDGE. No matter what I was in Tier 3 without an EV so any additional electricity used was gonna cost me 40 cents or more. At that price point a Prius is considerably cheaper to operate! Hell, running a Volt on gas even was cheaper to operate.

I actually never charged my Volt at home until we put in solar, thankfully I could more or less charge it at work. Now that we have solar and went on the TOU rate it is great though. We get credited at 50 cents per kW overproduced during the day and I can charge the car at night at 18 cents. A 2.5 ratio. With our system and TOU we have more than enough power to charge the car now but these things that make charging your EV so cheap really just are inaccurate. Now if we weren’t paying some of the highest rates in the land it may be more accurate but that isn’t the case…

That’s why you call your utility and get put on the “EV-1” schedule (or whatever yours calls it). As such, we are charged a flat rate (.10/kwH) for charging our Leaf between 11 pm and 9 am).

All of this is, of course, offset during the day by the 43 solar panels we have.

In reality, I think our electric ovens and washer/dryer tend to use more electricity than the car.

Driving to Net Zero? We arrived quite awhile ago!

I am on the TOU EV plan. They have one that is dedicated just for EV charging but it requires a different meter and installation costs and it still runs you the same TOU kW cost basically so why bother. Doing what we did is better for us as we turn an extra kW from the day in to 2.5 at night. Maybe if we sized our solar array just to meet our house needs but we did it knowing we would need more for the car so it is even more affordable.

No 10 cents rate whatsoever with SDGE for an EV or not.

SparkFiatOwner-M3reserved

SDGE: Was on DES with PV3.8Kw system and moved over to EV when got our 2 EVs. Ironically, there’s more Daytime Pk hours on the EV schedule.

No tier for the entire house. Single meter. Pk credit $0.49 kwh; off peak $.19 Run the AC at 78 and translates to about 1.5 hours in the late afernoon before the breeze kicks in for the whole house fan to be effective.

> Since you’re comparing future cost of gas + SDGE, you have to do the same with solar.

Why is that? The solar is paid for upfront at today’s prices.

Opportunity cost of not investing the money used to pay for the solar array.

That can be calculated too. First off, let’s compare apples to apples, and use an investment with equivalent Risk level. That would be the international standard for low risk investment, which is the US Treasury Note. Keep in mind that you have to buy gas every week or so with the median gas vehicle. So the Cost of Opportunity isn’t based upon 20 years. You’ve already blown through all of that gas money you could have used to buy solar long before that. Based on this story, his numbers are 2 years. So to calculate HIS cost of opportunity, the correct comparison would be the US 2 year Treasury Note (currently 0.5457%): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y But every month you cut into your “principal” by purchasing gas. So you don’t even get a full year of interest on you money. Each month your principal shrinks, so you won’t even ever get that half a percent back on your investment. So let’s apply that to his 14 cent number. One half of one percent of 14 cents is .07 cents. So with his cost of opportunity added in, Peder’s “real” cost is…. Drum roll please… 14.07 cents. Or as normal humans would call that,… Read more »

“Two i3 using 6.6kW will need 13.2 kW to be entirely on solar.” True, only if you want to insist that all the electrons going into the cars come directly from the Nordbys’ panels. Their excess production, of course, directly offsets SDG&E production to provide their neighbors’ loads. The third line in the 3 column graphic is confusing, but the blog article linked to contains the following explanation: “Our 8.5kw Solar PV system generated 13,546 kWh for the year. This equals 1593 kWh (per year) per kw system size.” Thus, 3.2 kW of the system (about 38%) is used to power the vehicles.

The problem for renewables has always been matching supply and demand, and I think that the author is clamoring for solutions that better align the two, so as to maximize the benefits of solar in terms of GHG emissions.

Short of ubiquitous home and public charging infrastructure for EVs, so that when the sun shines, the opportunity to charge is there, along with smart charging technology that can control the timing and duration of the charging, I don’t see what else could specifically be done in that regard.

Think ahead. 🙂

When EVs reach the end of their useful life, the battery packs will have perhaps 80% remaining capacity on average. They’ll go into a second life as an energy. If get integrated into the grid.

EVs will not just make transport much more efficient. It’ll enable us to switch to 100% renewable energy.

True Dat!

“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that. I wish I had more years left.” ~Thomas Edison Manufacturing gasoline causes GHG emissions not only in the refining process but again when the fuel is burned in a combustion engine. The GHG emissions involved in the manufacture and installation of solar panels occurs just once, then ceases for the life of the panels, let’s say 25 years. In comparison refining and burning gasoline for a period of 25 years will continue to generate Greenhouse gas emissions non-stop. There is no GHG left up in the air here, simply because no GHG is emitted by the panels. Since the BMW i3 runs on petrol part of the time, there are some GHG emissions from the car due to the use of some refined gasoline. On the other hand, a pure battery electric car would have zero GHG emissions just as was the case with the solar panels. Norby has a good point about using solar for cars instead of the grid. On thinking about it, rooftop solar is… Read more »

I think he has the pure BEV i3s (as do I). No petrol needed.

Brian,

I think Peder had the hybrid version originally. He may have swapped it out for the all electric version.

Mac

Close, and not to quibble, but the saying goes: As goes California, so goes the nation.

On the cost side of the solar panels you’ll have some maintenance and you’ll likely need replace the power electronics so that will add to the cost. But yes, solar is definitely less expensive.

The problem is that people don’t do the analysis this way. They want a payback in six months and solar costs more up front. It’s a cost flow versus balance sheet issue.

Let’s leave net metering out of this for a moment.

How many extra solar panels would it require to charge 2 electric cars every night and is your roof even big enough to hold that many?

How many Power-Walls will be needed to store the daytime solar PV electricity for all this nighttime charging ?

How much is all this going to cost ?

I suspect that just a limited few have the resources to finance all this “free” solar gasoline.

Clearly it depends on where you live but in the Southwest lets say you drive 15,000 miles a year. 2 cars would require about a 5kw system which lets say costs $22k on the high end. After rebates it would run you about $14k. Financing that isn’t gonna cost you much with today’s interest rates, even better if you can use the HERO program or pay cash. That $14k gets you basically free “gas” for 25+ years.

Seems like a no brainer. However not everyone can put solar on their roof and for some the climate may not make it as easy of a payback.

If you can’t really afford to pay cash or finance $14k one has to wonder how you got a car in the first place 🙂

Again though this may not work for everyone say people in Alaska for example 🙂

Well, $14k of GM stock would earn you about $750/yr in dividend (about $560 after 25% tax). Gas at $3/gal and 50 MPG Prius would get you 9400 miles worth of free gas in one car.

There’s another question if they’ll allow netmetering forever. If you move and have to do it again, it may not be the same, and it could end up costing more.

SparkFiatOwner-M3reserved
Great article. Yes, it skews the #s to most optimal conditions — wouldn’t catch eyeballs otherwise. TOU + Netmetering are crucial for this as PV folk in Cali all should be on. Spark gets about 4.2 and Fiat gets 4.0 miles per kw. Tesla’s a bit lower. PGE and LA have better off peak rates than SDGE. New Netmetering rules cuts into this, but still very nice. Even at $0.49 kwH charge, the costs are a little ahead; hence me not minding charging during pk if absolutely needed. Kids at home during the day should be outside — as should adults, IMHO. The daytime run on a house typically is low unless a business is there; otherwise most generation is netmetered. Vehicle to home (V2H) is what EV+PV owners should be pushing since most car companies won’t be doing this—they want to sell you Powerwalls instead. Peak power shaving to avoid the duckbill can heavily leverage the EVs coming home from work and plugging into their home system. No need to powerwall. Discharge the EV battery and recharge at night. Those arguing the power cycling hurts the battery, yes, but the ROI time of powerwall NEW battery vs % drain… Read more »

Please leave the utilities out of this !!!

The reason is simply that whenever solar intrudes on the bottom line of utilities, net metering and other pro bono gestures to solar power will end.

Solar Power is eventually going to have to stand on its own without props like net metering agreements, subsidies, tax breaks, rebates, etc.

Please stop including Net Metering in Your Grand Fantasy Plan, because when the old line utilities really begin to see solar as the real threat it is to them, then there will be enormous push-back, as has already happened in Nevada.

Stop trying to run the bogus math using net metering because it will soon end just like electric car subsidies.

electric-car-insider.com

Why ignore reality, jmac? People shoulf calculate ROI using the rates available to them.

Net metering ratepayers usually get grandfathered in for a coupe of decades.

30% tax credit is real. Use real numbers, not fake numbers.

Putting a system on your roof, or a community “solar garden” so you can get 25+ years of zero emission fuel for house and car is simply the right thing to do.

@ electric-car-insider I’m a huge fan of both solar and EVs. The problem with solar is that it’s only efficient for about one third of the day, about 8 hours or so. Not only that but solar is weather dependent and seasonal. As of Dec. 2015 installed solar capacity was about 185 gigawatts. But this figure is nameplate capacity only. In other words, at maximum generating capacity solar could theoretically generate 185 gigawatts of power, e.g when the sun is shining brightly on all the world’s solar panels. The real capacity of solar is therefore about 1/3 of so-called “nameplate” capacity. Additionally, when you account for seasonality and bad weather, then actual solar production may only be about a quarter of stated nameplate capacity. Global nameplate capacity of about 185 gigawatts thereby shrinks to about 46.25 GW. That’s about the equivalent of about 45 nuclear plants or 60 coal fired 750 MW plants. To give you some idea of scale, solar is less than 1% of global electrical production. Because solar is severely constricted by time of day, weather related and seasonal variations, the only way it can contribute is to jump on the grid during daylight hours or be… Read more »

jmac said:

“…when the old line utilities really begin to see solar as the real threat it is to them, then there will be enormous push-back, as has already happened in Nevada.”

And even moreso in Hawaii.

But the very negative tone of your post is highly inappropriate, jmac. Peder was talking about real-world numbers here and now, and net metering is part of the here-and-now where he lives.

Will net metering go away, or at least be greatly lessened? Of course it will, as home solar installations become more common.

But at the same time, the cost of batteries are coming down. And as home solar installations become more and more common, the economy of scale will reduce the price of inverters and other needed equipment.

It’s not very meaningful to talk about the end of net metering without also taking into account the falling prices of home solar installations, and the fact that we’ll almost certainly soon see significant reductions in the cost of li-ion battery home energy storage systems.

@ pushyu-pullmi

Apologies for sounding harsh. I really loved Peder referring to solar as gasoline. Hilarious. I also realize that the price per mile comparisons were set up using the current TOU and Net Metering schemes offered by various utilities.

I’m fine with all that except to say these perks may not be around forever and that the real core problem for renewables is finding an economical way to store the stuff. I kept hearing storage brought up in TED talks and in renewable energy articles and one day it finally dawned on me that they were right.

But, no one wants to talk about storage solutions because it boring. It’s much more fun to talk about a Model 3 sighting in the wild. Storage is the Achilles heel of solar, the elephant in the room that everyone pretends isn’t there.

“Kids at home during the day should be outside”

That’s funny. When I was a kid many decades ago, I (pre-teen) went all over the city alone riding the bus and bicycle. Now that the crime rate is lower today, there are some places that ban kids from being outside alone! Even the nosy neighbors could report on you. That’s why I love this concept.

http://www.freerangekids.com/

Unfortunately, this is not what everyone I know with kids will allow. It seems we’ve become a society of helicopter parents with no change in sight.

SparkEV said:

“It seems we’ve become a society of helicopter parents with no change in sight.”

Yup. Statistics show that “stranger danger” for children isn’t any greater today than it was in the “Leave it to Beaver” days of the 1950s. It’s only the perception of danger which has changed, due to the constant barrage of child predator stories on TV these days. Parents are being indoctrinated to believe there’s a child molester lurking around every corner.

But I don’t think it’s very realistic to say that if a kid is home and awake, then he should usually be outside. Beaver didn’t have Internet access, nor cable TV with 200+ channels.

$2.99 per watt installed is a bit too much. I would say it is closer to a dollar and that is with a battery pack, for the home too. It cost me less than that here in Cairo Egypt. I admit it though that I did it myself. It was not difficult at all. I say to my self how will we look at ourselves in say 10 years time? We will ask ourselves how on earth did we put up with this dirty oil business?

I’m surprised nobody touched on this, gasoline today in NJ is only $1.77 a gallon not $3.50. Is it really $3.50 in CA? Electricity is 18 cents a kwh here. If you weren’t driving an electric car, you’d be driving a 50mpg Prius not a gas hog 318. Right now at these prices it costs my friend with a Prius less per mile than it does with my Leaf. The price of gasoline needs to go up! 100 miles in a Prius right now $3.54 (2 gallons) 100 miles in my Leaf, $4.00 (22.2kwh) If i added solar, then it would eventually be cheaper for me but right now the gas car is cheaper until we ralj oil changes, maintenance, etc.

Looks like current NJ price is $2.081. http://www.newjerseygasprices.com/

If your current electricity is 18 cents per kWh, then you could easily cut that in half by going solar.

If you commit to the change that Peder challenges, then you would be cheaper than your friend with the Prius. Not just cheaper this year while gas prices are low, but cheaper for life! AND you have reduced GHGs. It is a commitment. If it is too much cash out of pocket, start slow. Nothing says you have to build your array all at once. You have about $100 to resubmit changes to you utility, and some small cost in an additional inverter.

You are preaching to the choir. I’ve already travelled over 100k miles in electric vehicles. Been driving electric before Peder. 1991 Geo Metro Conversion, 2008 Mini E, 2012 Leaf, 2015 Leaf, 2012 Imiev, another 2012 Leaf, and 2013 Zero S electric motorcycle. My one 2012 Leaf had 64,000 miles on it in 2.5 years when it was totaled in an accident. Electric is definately the way to go. Even my lawnmower is electric! And the average price for gasoline in NJ may be $2 but the station at the end of my street is $1.77 TODAY. I wish it were higher.

Ken
July 4, 2016 at 1:10 pm

I’m surprised nobody touched on this, gasoline today in NJ is only $1.77 a gallon not $3.50. Is it really $3.50 in CA?

But that price of $1.77 is only good for today. It may change tomorrow, or next week.

When considering the cost of home solar, we need to consider costs over several years, or even decades. Most people are going to pay for a solar installation over time, not all upfront. So it makes sense to average out the cost of fuel over the same time.

The average cost over the next several years is certainly going to be higher than $1.77 per gallon for gasoline. Probably significantly higher.

Hey Ken… yes..U can get gasoline in Nj @ $1.779 both @ Bjs and a few local retailers here in So. Nj…I am finding it near impossible to find any of the Tesla “fuel saving” in Nj with my Tesla MS 90D..I’ve calculated a 6.5 cents per mile cost using my 18.6 cent per kWhr PS&G power rate while my 42 mpg Acura ILX hybrid is actually under by a few tenths of cents per mile using $2.20 for 93 octane .. having a heck of a time getting a solar carport pushed through here in mid central Camden Co.. now going into 6th month of local township zoning BS.. fatboy Christie will eventually make gasoline higher.. and Nj is lower compared to other states.. so far as I am concerned Tesla’s promises of cost savings do not apply in many cases.. only in their dream scenarios posted on the window sticker..

At 5.5c/kWh and slightly higher for 100% wind from the utility, I still can’t pencil out 25yr solar in tornado alley.

Peder, Excellent data and information. You are setting the path for other everyday. Thanks.

@Peder Norby

Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to do this detailed report, with hard data!

I wish we would see a lot more reports like this. When it comes to home solar power, there is a lot of variation by location, roof size and angle, type of solar panel, shade, and other variables, so that it’s really impossible to describe a “typical” installation.

So, real-world numbers are appreciated, even if it’s only for a “sample size” of one.

Linear projections out 25 years don’t account for disruption. In Germany, grid power is going into negative cost for the end user at times. In 25 years CA will probably be 100% renewables at less cost of production.

Good numbers for today. 25year projection is a wild guess. Tony Seba’s 10year projection blows these numbers out.