Study: EVs Could Account For 21% Of Global Fleet By 2035

DEC 28 2017 BY MARK KANE 52

Bolt EVs outside Capital Chevrolet in San Jose/George B

According to a study conducted by Wood Mackenzie and GTM Research (which is a Wood Mackenzie Business), by 2035 plug-ins could account for 21% of the global car fleet.

The forecast is based on the carbon-constrained scenario“This is an alternative path to the future that focuses on the consistent, marginal change that will disrupt established markets long before a wholesale switch away from hydrocarbons occurs.”

“In 2017, EVs are attracting increasing attention, but they remain a niche market. However, the falling cost of EVs and their batteries will put EV purchase prices on par with ICE vehicles, and automakers are responding to this trend by developing new EVs. If this continues, we see EVs accounting  for 21% of the global car stock by 2035.

Although this is still less than a quarter of the global vehicle fleet, EVs will threaten the status quo in two ways: displacing oil demand as the EV fleet size increases and forcing ICEs to become more efficient as consumers demand comparable running costs from legacy engine types. Following exponential growth in EV use, we see oil demand hitting its peak by 2025 before declining.”

EV could account for 21% of global car fleet by 2035 – Wood Mackenzie

Wood Mackenzie also assumes that wind and solar’s power share will increase from 8% today to 30% in 2035.

“The most striking aspect of our carbon-constrained scenario  is long-term, double-digit growth for renewable energy , specifically wind and solar power. Combined, these two sources currently supply approximately 8% of the world’s power demand needs but will supply 30% in 2035 — constituting a seven-fold increase in the size of the renewables market. This will be driven by a dramatic fall in the costs of wind and solar capacity, as well as the cost of energy storage.

Wind and solar also cut coal’s contribution by 30%, almost obviate the need for new nuclear and eventually curtail gas. Because short-term energy storage technologies enjoy significant overlap with EV batteries, we expect that a feedback loop will develop as adoption of both accelerates, further driving down costs.

The transportation and petrochemicals sectors currently command approximately 79% of global oil demand, with the remainder consumed in industry and the residential/commercial arena. Under the carbon-constrained scenario, we remain confident that petrochemical demand growth will still remain positive, although to a lesser degree than in our base case. But the transport sector’s adoption of EVs will seriously disrupt oil demand.”

Future of renewables – Wood Mackenzie

Future of renewables – Wood Mackenzie

source: Wood Mackenzie

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52 Comments on "Study: EVs Could Account For 21% Of Global Fleet By 2035"

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Seems incredible. What’s the required year-by-year market share to get to 21% of the fleet by that time??

Even if Tesla were to suddenly start doing things on time, they will make one million cars a year in 2020. It seems like a lot to hope for an EV market share, globally, above 5% by then.

I can’t be bothered to make the spreadsheet myself right now, but the fact that they only show accumulated numbers and not how they get to them or what they imply for market share sure makes me skeptical.

Would be very pleased to be proved too optimistic though!

Their first chart shows not much over 2% by 2020.

Sigh. It really seems you don’t understand my point. Their numbers are showing the FLEET SHARE. That’s a completely different number from the market share in a given year – the percentage of the cars sold that year that are EVs.

Cars last about 20 years. The global EV fleet is less than 0.1% of the total, and the share of new sales less than 1% at present.

If 100% of global car sales next year are EVs, the fleet share would increase to about 5%. If 10% of sales are EVs the fleet share would increase to about 0.5%.

Do you understand now why a two percent fleet share doesn’t work in this timeframe with a 5% market share??

They are always wrong with renewables you can almost bet it’s going to be a lot more than 21%.

China is at 3% market share and Europe at 2%. 5% globally by 2020 is a no-brainer.

Replacing the fleet is hard though but 21% by 2035 should be doable. We will probably do more than that too.

What does it imply for market share year by year then? You ought to know, since you can say so confidently it’s a “no-brainer”.

Also, I’m very happy to take a bet on even terms that less than five percent of the global car fleet will be EVs (that is BEVs, no “electrified” hogwash) by 2020. That is against your no-brainer, so you really ought to take me up on it.

The world is at under one percent.

I realize now you were speaking of 5% market share, not fleet share, as the no brainer. I’m not being against that, but not so I think it’s a no-brainer. Battery supply may not grow so quickly and prices fall so fast as we’ve been expecting. Then again it may, which is why I won’t bet against that.

They mention this is probably their most optimistic forecast. Would be interesting to know what their base case is.

I think they must be accounting for plugin Hybrids in that number.

Several major automakers have announced transitions to all electric, or “electrified”, or having at least one trim level of a model be available with a plug.

Plus China as the largest car market, is pushing NEVs pretty hard via regulatory requirements. And European countries are starting to announce ICE sales bans in 2030-2040 time ranges.

I could make the standard point that disruptive technologies never follow a smooth adoption curve; every one we’ve seen (think electricity, cell phones, color TV, home video, the internet) follows an S curve: slow adoption at first, followed by rapid growth, followed by a plateau.

EVs will likely be similar. By 2035 I expect it’ll be all over already, with combustion engine vehicles being abandoned like tube TVs.

Yes, I believe that is what this report is saying. 21% of all vehicles means that only old cars are still using gas and all new cars are EVs and have been for several years.

Well, another standard feature of every technological revolution is that people overestimate how fast everything will change, but underestimate the long-term impact. The internet is a prime example, and one where many don’t realize we’re at the beginning of the beginning of the transformation it is heaping on society.

I’m in no doubt that EVs will replace ICE and to great benefit. This timeline however strikes me as not very realistic. In fact the text also mentions, in passing, that it is based on a “carbon-constrained scenario”. In other words political action that appears merely as remote possibility has been assumed. That’s as close as you’ll get to the author’s own admission this is the most optimistic, not the most realistic, scenario.

Well said.

And I still think the actual uptake will be much faster than this optimistic scenario.

Remember how the Greenpeace predictions about the uptake of solar were way more aggressive than any ‘serious’ analyst’s?

And they were STILL not optimistic enough…

The real reason for faster uptake is the fact that consumers are acting like a herd, and as soon as the EV is perceived as ‘the next trendy thing to own’, then they will buy EV’s, no matter what.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/

In 2017 the share of Plugins has crossed 1% mark in sales and Worldwide Plugin sales thru 2017-11 has crossed 1.039 million. If EVs should account for 21% of fleet by 2035, then the sales share of EVs should be at least 50% in 2035. This is more promising than many other forecasts, lets see.

And there are more than 3 million plugins by now.

17-18 years from now, only 21% of the cars on the road will be PEVs?

Wow, what a failure of imagination! Now I admit I’ve been too hopeful in the past about the rate of growth of the EV revolution, but still I think this figure is unrealistically low.

Also, it’s pretty clueless to predict North America will be adopting EVs faster than Europe. With Europe’s sky-high gasoline prices and stronger governmental controls, it’s a pretty safe bet that the EV revolution will progress faster in Europe than it will here in the U.S.

Canada may well keep up with Europe, but Mexico will likely lag even farther behind than the U.S., since so much of the Mexican automotive fleet is older cars.

Old fleets also exist in Europe. Average age of cars in Latvia and Lithuania is 14 years. So here’s hoping us Europeans can keep up. Probably we will beat Cuba.

Lots of new cars in Cuba are Chinese and the Chinese are doing more and more electric cars. Cuba might beat quite a few countries in adopting EVs.

“Probably we will beat Cuba.”

LOL! That’s setting the bar pretty low.

Well, we will see what we will see. I think there are large rural areas in the USA, where the population density is very low and the average income relatively low, are an upward drag on the average age of American cars, and a downward drag on the EV adoption rate, just like those Eastern European countries you mentioned. Areas where there won’t be much deployment of public EV charging infrastructure. The average population density in European countries is much, much higher than in the USA.

I’m counting BEVs only. In any case the PHEVs will probably only be a temporary blip – even if consumers want them, they’ll be far too expensive to make when production shifts to electric. With regards to US/Europe, the price of fossil fuels means Europe is a little ahead with stronger incentives. But because EVs are getting cheaper fast, the US is just a year or two behind. Once electric cars have a lower sticker price than fossil ones, I doubt it will matter much that the running cost savings are even bigger in Europe. Other factors will be at least as important. In the short term, if Tesla becomes the first true mass manufacturer of EVs, the US may well pass Europe. Cars are for some reason a patriotic purchase for many folks, or at least every manufacturer tends to do better in their domestic market than elsewhere. In the longer term other factors may matter more than cost. Right now Europe has better public charging infrastructure. The US is however about to catch up, using VWs money. A policy shift if the next election becomes a swing back from the Trump era could also happen. I really don’t… Read more »

A lot will depend on how fast the infrastructure grows. People living in blocks of flats with no private driveway will be reliant on private companies coming up with sensible solutions. How this develops will be particularly interesting in countries which are currently dominated by second hand imports like most of Eastern Europe. When new EV costs become comparable with ICE many will be better of buying a new EV instead of an old ICE clunker and saving a fortune on fuel. Fuel costs are similar to Western Europe while wages are a lot lower so it hurts more.
If the demand for used ICE cars starts to fall rapidly then it will affect their depreciation making EVs even better ‘investment’.

Upon reading your comment, I’m re-evaluating the importance of depreciation and the used car market on EV adoption. This report, like most people, focuses on sticker price. But long before there are cheap EVs, parity in depreciation combined with TCO may be the real drivers of EV adoption.

Unfortunately the data tells another story. Total cost has much less impact on buying decisions than sticker price, the exact reverse of rational decision-making. Corporations are better at it than individuals privately, perhaps simply because the people influencing purchasing decisions in corporations usually have some inkling about economics..! Most of the time we buy based on feelings, and paying less today feels better even if we know we’ll pay more later.

“People living in blocks of flats with no private driveway will be reliant on private companies coming up with sensible solutions.”

I continue to be puzzled that so many people think this is going to be a serious barrier to EV adoption in the future. Every one of those cars has some place to park at night, don’t they? Just think about how much easier and cheaper it will be to install L2 EV chargers beside those parking spaces than it was to put in all those parking spaces in the first place!

You will have to repeat this another thousand times.

The answer to “But where should I charge?” is “Where do you park?”

Here are three scenarios applicable in Switzerland:

1) I park in the streets: I depend on some public or private actor to install chargers

2) I have a space in an underground parking below the building: I depend on the owner of the building to pay for the installation of the chargers. They will only do if they can recoup the money.

3) I own an apartment in a building with underground parking: I must convince the other owners to share the installation costs, or pay for the whole thing myself

Another Euro point of view
Indeed, maybe they are a bit pessimistic but then again it might be that li-ion battery cells remains an expensive commodity maybe until 2025. I am still under the influence of what mining sector experts says about cobalt production in the short term and have no reason to doubt their saying. Another aspect is how cheap ICE are and how poor vast majority of planet population is. Renault’s subsidiary Dacia makes roomy cars that can easily seat 5 for USD 10K. When a comparable BEV will be built ? in 2030 ? Why those people should trade their Dacia with proven technology and cheap parts for an EV ? Because of climate change ? If it’s forced upon them like in China yes, if not, not so obvious they will rush to EV’s. My current ICE has a 600 miles range on highway and was bought for approx. $25K. Tomorrow I should have a BEV that costs more, has a third of the range and needs 40 minutes to refill against the 1 minute it now needs (3 minutes for 600 miles (65 liters) so 1 minute for 200). I will change to a BEV as I am fond of… Read more »

I don’t know about Dacia making a cheap EV but I know that 3 mln cars in Poland have been converted to run on LPG because it is over 50% cheaper due to lower taxes. Electricity is a lot cheaper than LPG so the moment these cars have a similar price to ICE I expect to see a lot of interest. First in rural areas where installing a charger at owners property will be easy then as infrastructure grows expect to see the same in cities.

You must be the only person in the entire world who considers commodity market forecasts when buying a car. And you go on at length about what your car can do, but not a word about what you actually do. If in fact you drive 600 miles a day then you are among the rare few.

The U.S Federal Highway Administration studied the driving habits of Americans. They found that about half NEVER drove more the 100 miles. The average person traveled more than 100 miles only 6 days/year; more than 200 miles only 2 days/year and only once per year did they drive more than 300 miles.

This is well known to EV owners. I believe that people are waking up to that fact, examining their driving habits and realizing that an EV makes sense, especially when they consider years of gas savings and cheaper maintenance.

Another Euro point of view
With all due respect this driving habit argument is just not valid for mass EV adoption. If you look at this sort of lab experience of EV mass adoption which is Norway, EV forum are full of questions about possibility or not to put a towing hook on an EV. This is one of the many reasons of the eGolf success there. How many time per year do Norwegians need a towing hook ? Probably not many. People just are like that. The day after tomorrow I will catch a plane 200 miles away from where I leave as I got a good deal there to fly to Morocco for holidays. My return flight is arriving at 1 a.m., Do I want to find a charger in the middle of the night to enable me and my family to drive the 200 miles back from Holland to Luxembourg. No. How many times a year will I face such situation, 2-3 times maybe. Is it enough to be pivotal for my car choice ? Sort of. People are like that, they want all situations addressed. The 2 times per year they need a towing hook and the 2 times per year… Read more »

Your car is parked at the airport in your scenario, is it not?
Is it impossible for the airport to equip the long term parking spaces with simple standard outlets (1 kW peak charge would be totally sufficient as the vehicle is sitting there for a few days!)? I don’t think so.
So, once installed, it is arrive, plug-in and return to a fully charged vehicle after the vacation.
For the short term airport parking (like 8 hours only for a short business trip) a 3-6 kw charger should do the trick. Make it 10 kw to accomodate for nearly empty Teslas…

Given that it was in Holland, I guarantee the airport already has L2 charging at the airport. Probably free of charge as well (as in you’d pay the same fee as for parking a fossil, and get the charge for free).

Another Euro point of view

“Is it impossible for the airport to equip the long term parking spaces with simple standard outlets”

This is a good example of those “little things” what needs to be done in order to have masses going from ICE to EVs. I remember reading about some tensions within a couple about a bad delivery experience of a Tesla Model S. The man was all about EV adoption because of environmental reasons mainly an the woman couldn’t care less. There was some big argument in between the two as the woman just wanted a practical/reliable/affordable car, would it be powered by electricity/petrol/unicorn fart she didn’t care. Most people are like this woman I thing.

I used to be a poor student. Given the choice, I’d have purchased a cheap, reliable EV that didn’t need gas or expensive repairs rather the sad assortment of beaters that I towed to the junkyards.

Another Euro point of view

Indeed cheap reliable EVs is likely a strong plus in favor of EVs but you also need a good reliable charging network, that could take time to put in place in developing countries.

Not worth the paper it’s printed on.

Best analysis of this report.

Trying to use my imagination a little bit here. If a country like Norway or France bans ICE cars, there will be no gas stations there. Now imagine if you are German or a Spaniard or an Italian or a Pole and you want to drive into France or Norway. You’ll have to have an electric car. Or, if you take the train or fly into France or Norway and then want to drive, your only choice will be electric and that will help sell you on getting one back in your home country.

Good examples but I think the most effective way to convince customers to buy EVs will be taxis. In UK taxi drivers who use Leaf instead of ICE save over £4000 a year. Let’s wait till 60 kWh model arrives next year. I expect taxi corporations to go crazy over them. This will be an opportunity for a big number of people to experience EVs for themselves.
Also, while EU still declines to set quotas on EVs they will have to introduce them sooner or later. Reducing reliance on imports of oil is a massive economic opportunity and an addtional boost to renewables promoted by EU.

And that’s why it could go faster than everyone thinks. If you have to drive 20 miles for some gas and other people can charge much cheaper at home, it’s not a hard choice. But many people don’t think to much, so we have to spread the word

China intents to ban sales of cars with a tailpipe by 2030. China market will be over 30 million per year.
Do you see Chinees fleet increase by 150+ million between 2030 and 2035?

Neither do I. That is the quality of this report

Inconsistent. 30 million per year for five years is indeed 150 million. And far, far fewer cars will be going out of circulation than into it, since the Chinese car market is growing fast and will continue to do so throughout this period.

It’s heartening to note that some oil and gas consultants are now atleast writing about impact of EVs on oil demand.
Consultants always base their predictions on the extrapolation norms and go wrong. They also know that their projections are forgotten once the new ones are made.
My thumbrule for such projections is to advance them by 5-7 years because the new technologies follow an S curve. The world bank recently announced that it will not fund oil and gas sector projects after 2019. The story of oil is as good as over. Anyone planning to invest in this sector in next 2-3 years is digging its own grave.
The share of NEV’s has crossed 2% in China and will cross 10% in 2019 because of the ZEV legislation being enforced. In Europe and US it has crossed 1%. With new LEAF and Tesla 3 coming on board in 2018, this may well cross 4% in 2018. The US auto sales are expected to decline in 2018 by 2-5%.
Let us review this article at the end of 2018 and discuss again where we stand! Till then Cheers and a Happy 2018.

I wonder what Tony Seba would say. If close to 100% of new LDVs sold are EVs by 2028, we’ll probably be well over 21% of the global fleet by 2035. Probably even well over 50%, given that it’ll approach 100% step by step over the next 10 years.

An extremely depressing forecast. That’s not a serious carbon constrained scenario. It looks business as usual, driven by commercial interests. The civilised world has agreed that with high probability global warming needs to less than plus 2 deg C, and to pursue measures targeting less than 1.5 deg C global warming. This means being carbon neutral by 2050 and draw down for the remainder of the century for something that is just a climate disaster rather than a catastrophe. Since we in the developed world have caused most of the problem we need to act before the rest of the world as they lift their standard of living and quality of life. That means in the developed world we need to be carbon neutral by around 2040 and in some countries by about 2037. Most of the cars at the moment are in developed nations. Car fleets in these nations need to be 100% low emissions by about 2040. 21% by 2035 looks like a defeat in the face of the climate emergency we have in front of us. It has to be said that a 21% zero emissions car fleet by 2035 is not consistent with what scientists and… Read more »

I for one remember what happend with having no cell phones at all, standard cellphones , CRT TVs and computer screens, analogue photography, music cassettes, VHS, and several other technologies that were the dominating technology, often for a long time.
In 1998, around here, cell phones were some expensive curiosity that the average person could see on TV, with the occasional user on the street. Just 4 years later, there were more registered cellphones than people in the country. For a few years the phones got smaller and cheaper and added functionality. Another few years later they are alomst vanished as by 2013 most peaople were using Smartphones…
The first flat screen TV I saw in person was in the late 90s. It was not really flat (like 20 cm thick) with like 30 inch screen, offered for a whopping 29,999. The store had dozens of different models of CRT-TVs on sale in all sizes and price ranges. By 2006, the store carried only a single model of CRT-TV, and stopped sales of those completely at the end of the year due to lack of demand.

Is there a point buried in this? If so, what is it? That EVs will be the only cars in offer in 2022?!?

Does this projection account for falling vehicle sales due to the rise of autonomous vehicles? If they haven’t factored that in, it’s pretty pointless.

Terrawatt makes a great point. Getting to 21% of the global fleet in only 18 years is a great accomplishment. 90 million new vehicles of all kinds are sold globally each year. The chart shows 350 million EVs in the global fleet by 2035 which is 21%. That means the global fleet is 1.6 billion vehicles. Current annual global EV sales are 1 million per year. If the global EV sales rate increases 30% each year for 18 years, my calcs show that annual EV sales in 18 years will be about 86.5 million, or 95% of the total annual market. Total cumulative EV sales will be about 372 million, or about where the W-M study suggested. So 30% annual increase in sales for the next 18 years will eliminate new production of almost all ICE vehicles and the total ICE global fleet will continue to decline at the rate the legacy ICE vehicles die or are abandoned and are replaced by EVs. That is GREAT progress, indeed.

I am quite optimistic regarding both the market- and fleet share predictions for EVs. I do not expect a linear- or even exponential adoption but a change in technology from one day to the next. EVs are the nicer ride right now, no doubt, but pricier and/or range constraint. This trade-off will have vanished in 2020, it seems. At that point, no one in their right mind will buy an ICE…think iPhone. The adoption will go from zero to a hundred in 1.9 seconds…eehhm.. in no time I mean:). As well, anyone who can remotely afford it will get rid of their ICE as well at that point… They are not going to wait for their horsy to die. Who wants to be so yesterday? who wants their kids to look at them with pity? At that point, refuelling and ICE repair infrastructure will enter a nose dive. Just like most other industries, these sectors depend on growth and cannot tolerate decline.

I’m with you. Track times, real “noisy” cars for real man…and all this stuff is crap. To me it’s like all this people talking about MT being the only chose for “real car lovers” still 99% of people buy AT, once you are able to buy an 100/150 mile basic electric car at say the same cost of a Toyota Corolla ICI cars will be history. Some have pointed it correctly, at specs/Costs parity no-one will be stupid enough to buy a comparable ICE “just because they love noise&vibration”. At this given point 99% of people would realize that it makes no sense to spend 2 or 3 times more in gasoline than in electricity and that the ICU car they purchase would have a terrible (if any) resale value. Most important at this point (some five years from now?) Electric cars will be “the cool thing” and the market for ICE cars will be close to 0%. The Renault/Dacia ICE car that seats 5 and could be bought for 10k in a third world country is a great example. Once people there are able to buy an electric car at teb same price and save money on gasoline and… Read more »
I firmly believe this percentage will be obtained much sooner than 2035. I can remember talk about electric vehicles and at that time it seemed so unbelievable that it was almost something you’d expect from a sci-fi film, that’s how out of reach it seemed. However, in just the past decade alone it no longer seems like a dreamer for a future generation it looks like it will be here sooner than we think. I mean this percentage or maybe even 25% and that is awesome. One thing I’ve always wondered about is the commercial fleets, like delivery vans, semi-trucks, school buses, etc. They must produce more environment harming gases than all of or most of the private vehicles on the road. Or maybe a good portion. Anyway, after doing some research online, for I came across Adomani Inc. which makes retro-fitted electric drivetrains for school buses. Long story short, I followed the company and loved it so I bought the stock when it went public so my point is. Is this an option for private vehicles? Can a company make retro-fitted electric drivetrains as in the case of Adomani Inc. NASDAQ: ADOM for private vehicles and switch over current… Read more »