Study: EVs Could Account For 21% Of Global Fleet By 2035
According to a study conducted by Wood Mackenzie and GTM Research (which is a Wood Mackenzie Business), by 2035 plug-ins could account for 21% of the global car fleet.
The forecast is based on the carbon-constrained scenario – “This is an alternative path to the future that focuses on the consistent, marginal change that will disrupt established markets long before a wholesale switch away from hydrocarbons occurs.”
“In 2017, EVs are attracting increasing attention, but they remain a niche market. However, the falling cost of EVs and their batteries will put EV purchase prices on par with ICE vehicles, and automakers are responding to this trend by developing new EVs. If this continues, we see EVs accounting for 21% of the global car stock by 2035.
Although this is still less than a quarter of the global vehicle fleet, EVs will threaten the status quo in two ways: displacing oil demand as the EV fleet size increases and forcing ICEs to become more efficient as consumers demand comparable running costs from legacy engine types. Following exponential growth in EV use, we see oil demand hitting its peak by 2025 before declining.”
Wood Mackenzie also assumes that wind and solar’s power share will increase from 8% today to 30% in 2035.
“The most striking aspect of our carbon-constrained scenario is long-term, double-digit growth for renewable energy , specifically wind and solar power. Combined, these two sources currently supply approximately 8% of the world’s power demand needs but will supply 30% in 2035 — constituting a seven-fold increase in the size of the renewables market. This will be driven by a dramatic fall in the costs of wind and solar capacity, as well as the cost of energy storage.
Wind and solar also cut coal’s contribution by 30%, almost obviate the need for new nuclear and eventually curtail gas. Because short-term energy storage technologies enjoy significant overlap with EV batteries, we expect that a feedback loop will develop as adoption of both accelerates, further driving down costs.
The transportation and petrochemicals sectors currently command approximately 79% of global oil demand, with the remainder consumed in industry and the residential/commercial arena. Under the carbon-constrained scenario, we remain confident that petrochemical demand growth will still remain positive, although to a lesser degree than in our base case. But the transport sector’s adoption of EVs will seriously disrupt oil demand.”
source: Wood Mackenzie