Study: 1/3 New Trucks In Europe Must Be EVs To Satisfy Paris Agreement

Tesla Pickup Truck

SEP 12 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 10

Wouldn’t it be fabulous if one-third or more of trucks in the U.S. has to be electric soon?

While the Trump Administration has decided to forego the Paris Climate Accord, many other countries are still on board. With that comes a new study commissioned by the Dutch Environment Ministry and prepared by TNO (Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research). According to the research and data collection, one out of every three trucks manufactured will have to be zero-emission by 2030 in order to comply with commitments made in the Paris Agreement.

Not surprisingly, the new study revealed that in order to meet the “intermediate CO2 reduction target for the EU road freight sector for 2030 consistent with the 1.5 ̊C goal” provided within the agreement, several factors will be necessary. Green Car Reports shared those factors:

  • Improved logistics to reduce vehicle kilometers;
  • The full available potential for reduced fuel consumption in conventional HDVs together with an increased share of sustainably produced biofuels or other low-CO2 fuels; plus
  • An additional contribution from employing zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the road freight sector.

In addition, the study discovered that with reference to specific vehicles and parameters, CO2 emissions can be lessened by five percent by 2030 without increasing costs to “society and end-user.” Rather, it actually shows that costs could be reduced.

Moreover, the study asserts that battery-electric heavy-duty vehicles have the potential to be “technically” and “economically” viable by 2025 in some markets and economically competitive for multiple uses by 2030.

Source: Green Car Congress

Categories: Trucks

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10 Comments on "Study: 1/3 New Trucks In Europe Must Be EVs To Satisfy Paris Agreement"

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silversod

That’s great news, I’m a member of a classic car club here in the UK and most of the members who own Trucks i.e. Ford F150’s Chevy Blazer,Bronco etc have had them converted to run on LPG, 8 quid a gallon gets old pretty quick.

Andy

Pretty sure this is aimed at HGV’s and LGV’s not pickup trucks.

Gabriel

In Europe goods can be transported in electric trains and only the last mile delivery done in trucks, so the need of electric trucks there is much smaller than in the US. I heard from a logistics director of the Coca-Cola company, however, that usually deliveries of less than 400 km are done directly using trucks, so I guess that there a lot of room of improvement in multi-modal logistics.

Windbourne

It is because of distributor plant to plant is typically under 600 miles. That means for companies like Bud/Coke/Walmart/etc. that is cheaper to go to electric and then have them drive that truck some 600 miles and unload/re-charge and then either go to next plant or head back.
This probably accounts for about 1/2 of America’s commercial trucks. That is why Tesla is targeting it.

Alex

I think electrification in heavy vehicles (trucks) will happen very fast.
Fuel costs for my car are like 25% of total costs, for trucks it’s way more significant. Paying 1/2 or 1/3 (maybe less) for the energy will have a huge impact on costs.
I suppose for 2030 sales of electric trucks will be ahead of fossil fuel trucks… maybe already with a good margin.

Windbourne

For trucks it is something like 33-40% of the costs. Oddly, maintenance or driver are next. EV is much much cheaper than ICE. And with automation coming, well….
Yeah, I think that by 2022, it will be obvious that nearly all ICE vehicle sales will be near zero.

antrik

Another strangely pessimistic study. Feasible for some use cases in 2025… So all these electric trucks available now or in the near future are not feasible?

I wonder what the authors of such studies are thinking. Reality doesn’t match their estimations, so reality must be wrong?…

From a glance, they are using some very questionable assumptions, most notably regarding battery price: 200 Euro per kWh in 2025? 120 in 2030? Tesla should be close to 120 *today*.

(These estimates are supposedly based on three different third-party studies from last year… Which in turn must have been based on severely flawed data.)

G2

Economically speaking, once 1/3 of trucks are EV there will be no way for non-EV trucks to compete.

Windbourne

Even before.

Windbourne

ugh.
Steven, you blew this article.
Europe is going to force the commercial world over. They will put regs in place, while truck makers are already moving towards EVs.
Once Tesla hits the market next year, and has prices even CLOSE to what they claim, it will be over for all semis that travel under 1000 miles / day. This will be true in the entire western nations. The reason is economics. Sadly, companies will switch over due to Tesla forcing the pricing so low, but then nation gov will try to claim their regulations deserve the credit.

With that said, I am hoping that Northern Burlington will get smart and introduce a brand in which only 3-4 lines go across the US. Basically, each has pick-up/drops every 1000 miles. Assuming they can do this, and have switched to nat gas (or ideally to pure electric), they could change the economics of shipping freight via train/truck mix. This would do more for America.