Sales Of Light-Duty Electric Vehicles To Reach 6.4 Million Annually By 2023

FEB 23 2015 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 18

Nissan LEAF Is World's #1 Selling EV

Nissan LEAF Is World’s #1 Selling EV

New 2016 Chevrolet Volt

New 2016 Chevrolet Volt

Them forward-lookers over at Navigant Research have released their latest light-duty electric vehicle prediction:

“Sales of Light Duty Electric Vehicles are Expected to Reach 6.4 Million Annually by 2023, According to Navigant Research”

Light-duty basically translates to passenger vehicles, excluding heavy-duty trucks.

Here’s the rest of the Navigant Research press release:

Electric vehicles face more competition as additional technologies that improve fuel economy emerge, report finds

BOULDER, Colo. — A recent report from Navigant Research provides a comprehensive overview of the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market, including global forecasts for annual vehicle sales and vehicles in use through 2023.

The use of EVs, which now account for a small but growing share of the world’s LDV market, has been promoted by governments around the world because of the economic, environmental, and energy efficient benefits they provide. Although they make up a small portion of the overall LDV market today, the hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) that contribute to this market are becoming a significant part of the global automotive industry.  According to a recent report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of light duty EVs are expected to increase from 2.7 million in 2014 to 6.4 million in 2023.

“Historically, governments have pushed automakers to develop EVs and have also encouraged citizens to buy them, but it’s likely government incentives will begin to decrease in most developed regions as the market begins to shift,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “EVs are expected to become more available in the luxury class segments, where the plug-in vehicle (PEV) premium is lower than comparable vehicles due to higher overall vehicle prices.”

The market for conventional vehicles with reduced fuel consumption is also expected to become more competitive, as other fuel-efficient and alternative fuel technologies begin to enter the LDV market, according to the report. In particular, fuel efficiency advances made to internal combustion engines are likely to threaten HEV market share in economy class segments, making growth contingent on EVs expanding into larger vehicle formats, such as sport utility vehicles (SUVs).

The report, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts,” provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), world region, key country, drivetrain, class, and automaker, extend through 2023. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

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18 Comments on "Sales Of Light-Duty Electric Vehicles To Reach 6.4 Million Annually By 2023"

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So they are counting standard hybrids in that 6.4 million figure?

It seems they are counting HEVs as “electric vehicles” (see “Although they make up…”), which bugs me to no end.

I think it makes sense to draw the bright line between “electric” and “non-electric” vehicles at the point where the former have a plug and the latter don’t. We can then proceed to argue endlessly about subcategorizing EVs into PHEVs vs. BEVs, but that’s another point. (And I have no doubt that we plug-heads will have that secondary argument a few thousand more times.)

If it has a tailpipe, its not an EV. Why did Chevy take such trouble to HIDE the Volt’s tailpipe? QED.

Meh. Such purist snobbery is not good for vehicle electrification. I also prefer the term ‘Plug-In’ to make it clear when referring to both pure electrics and PHEVs.

Such stupid obfuscation does not serve potential customers nor the public good.

An ICE is an ICE.

A hybrid is a hybrid.

And an electric vehicle is an electric vehicle.

Yep. Headline is a bit misleading if you assume ‘electric vehicles’ only means plug-ins.

“worldwide sales of light duty EVs are expected to increase from 2.7 million in 2014 to 6.4 million in 2023”

That explains that really weak prediction of sales. I am guessing they see the plug-ins eating all of the HEV volume as part of their growth curve.

They really should separate HEV, PHEV, and BEV.

That’s not unreasonable. The US is on-pace for 623k annually by then and we’re slow to adopt (especially in the interior states.)

This is a prediction of linear growth. By 2020, we will see a takeoff curve setting in. Put it this way. If EVs simply double in sales in about 10 years, you won’t see EVs take over in your lifetime.

True. This is an extremely conservative growth rate projection. I think they are just another one of those big oil supported research firms.
Lets how well they did in predicting the recent decline in oil prices, in an article from last May 2014 for instance:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/pikeresearch/2014/05/09/oil-price-deniers-distort-the-case-for-alternatives/

It does seem like a lot of forecaster pundits went to sleep in statistics class after the part on linear extrapolation.

Meh. Everyone is just making wild guesses to the best of their ability. In reality, no one has a clue. It is all very heavily dependent on oil prices, battery prices, climate change legislation, CAFE standards, CARB rules, technology improvements.

I think that oil prices will rise back up in the next 2 to 3 years and battery prices should come down when the gigafactory comes online such that plug-in sales should accelerate. But that is just my personal WAG.

Also if vehicle count is only going to double then why do they also predict Lion battery use will quadruple? I added in a few billion to update from 2013-2015.
Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty consumer vehicles will grow from $3.2 billion in 2013 to $24.1 billion in 2023.

1) Bigger cars require bigger battery pack. So if/when EV expand from smaller (city) cars to bigger (SUV) cars, battery demand will increase *above* linear increase of cars made.

2) Better battery tech mean more use case scenarios. Just like Musk “near” entrance into home solar-powered batteries.

3) With cheap batteries on the market, some car manufacturers may opt for long-range EVs. Where given car get even bigger battery pack.

I’m expecting at least 8 million plugins to be sold per year by 2023.

Don’t know nor care about the traditional hybrids but I know they can’t be a negative number at least 😛

Why do the EV blogs keeps posting projections from Navigant Research?

They have made some of the most ridiculous projections I’ve ever seen and yet, they keep getting quoted.

Please stop for everyone’s sake. Your credibility on this blog is taking a tremendous hit.

It’s a meaningless forecast, doubly so for accepting the auto makers’ own classification for what is an “electric vehicle” and what isn’t. There’s a spectrum, from pure gas guzzlers to micro-hybrids to mild hybrids to PHEVs, to pure EVs aka BEVs. (Also, different auto makers try to confuse things even more by inventing unnecessary terms such as “EREV” and “BEVx”.) Where you draw the circle for the Venn diagram is purely arbitrary, and different auto makers draw it to encompass different things.

Even aside from that, it’s still a meaningless prediction. Different companies forecast wildly different growth rates for EVs. You’d do as well to use a dart boar for a “forecast”.

The speed at which the EV revolution grows, or doesn’t, is almost entirely dependent on the technological advance of mass produced batteries. That’s a wild card which nobody can predict.

If you feel forecast from research firms-consultant firms are pointless then you are free not to click.

I want insideevs to keep posting this studies.