Reports Says Production of EREVs Will Exceed 8 Million Annually by 2022

5 years ago by Eric Loveday 12

Chevy Volt's an EREV....So Too Are 8 Million Other Vehicles to be Built in 2022, Says This Report

Chevy Volt’s an EREV….So Too Are 8 Million Other Vehicles to be Built in 2022, Says This Report

The market prediction types out there seem to pour out “research” reports at an incredible pace.  Often times, not a few days go by without some sort of plug-in vehicle predictor popping up on the Internet.  Seemingly every market “research” site out there wants in on the action and some, like Market Research, even try to charge thousands for access to their complete predictions.

We Doubt This EREV Will be Around in 2022

We Doubt This EREV Will be Around in 2022

We’re not willing to pay for others to predict the future.  That’s silly.  But, at least Market Research provided us with a brief summary of its latest report, titled “Range Extenders for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022.”

Most of the summary is mumbo jumbo, including some talk about how conventional engines are banned on lakes and in underwater vehicles.  What?  There’s a bit on why pure electric works in certain situations (aircraft), but not so well in others (larger road vehicles).  So, yeah, this summarized report is full of fluff, but one detail did jump out.

The point that Market Research is trying to make is that there’s a significant demand for extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs).  They make sense, says Market Research, in larger road vehicles (think any auto bigger than a city car).

Market Research claims EREVs will become so wildly popular across the globe that annual production levels will soar to an astronomical amount of 8 million units per year by 2022.  This figure does however include all EREVs operating on the water, under the water, in the air and on the ground.  Though we have to assume that most will be driven on roads.

Market Research continues by saying that pure electric vehicle will have a limited impact in terms of sales by 2022 and it’s the EREV that will easily dominate in the electrified vehicle segment, which leads us to our closing question: By 2022, will annual production of pure electric vehicles exceed the annual production figure for EREVs?  Or will it be the other way around?

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12 responses to "Reports Says Production of EREVs Will Exceed 8 Million Annually by 2022"

  1. Steve says:

    In the USA, there are around 12-13 million cars sold per year. So if they meant 8 million in the USA, that’s very optimistic. (or did they mean 8 million in the world?). And the EREV number doesn’t even include pure electrics.

    I am optimistic. Battery technology is steadily making things better and cheaper. Electrics are just starting to be mass produced. An electric (Tesla S) beat out the similarly-priced gas cars and is the best-selling large luxury sedan in the US. People’s attitudes about electric cars are slowly coming toward reality. Somewhere soon there may be a “tipping point” where electric cars are both better and cheaper than gasoline cars. (And we’re already at that tipping point for large luxury cars). I can definitely see total plugin cars being more than 50% of new cars sold by 2022. Or sooner. I hope.

    1. Eric Loveday says:

      8 Million is a global figure

  2. zilm says:

    USA,Europe,Japan – EV and PHEV will be both in demand up to ~2020 in the best case (later if not so best), after that demand on PHEV will go lower, EV will grow further. But there will be growing market for PHEV in 3rd countries where still there will be no infrastructure for move to pure EV.

  3. Kimmi says:

    Mmmm…Predictions tend to miss the target, what IT IS happening, unlike the previsions of many, is that this year pure electrics (BEV) are recovering share regarding plug in hybrids (PHEV), in 2012 the global electric market was split 50/50 between BEV’s and PHEV’s, now BEV’s have 60% share and PHEV’s 40%, thanks to the rebound of the Nissan Leaf (Again in #1) and the sales success of the Model S from Tesla (Now #2 worldwide).

    In the end of 2012, the two best selling EV’s were the Chevrolet Volt and Prius Plug-In, now they are #3 and #5, respectively.

    For more info: http://www.ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/World

  4. David Murray says:

    I don’t believe it. No way. That’s less than 10 years from now. Unless the cost of batteries drop, or the cost of gasoline rises, or a combination of both… I’d be surprised to see even 500,000 plug-in vehicles per year (including E-REV and BEV) But 8 million per year? Give me a break.

    1. kdawg says:

      Yeah, that seems aggressive. EVs & PHEV’s are selling less than 100k/year now. They are prediciting an 80X increase in only 10 years? I think its going to take more time for a lot of reasons, one example, many people are keeping their cars longer due to the economy.

      1. Mark H says:

        These are global numbers and easily off by 2x. A lot depends on the growth of the Chinese and Indian market. We here also see the transistion from EREV to BEV, but we do not talk too much about the transistion from hybrid to EREV.

        But maybe the largest paradigm shift of all is how we use the battery. The fact that we top off each day totally changes how we view energy storage. Our mind set continually evolves on this matter. IMO the BMW i3 is just the beginning of the smaller range extender. The extender will not necessarily even be fueled by gasoline. It may come in the form of an add on battery and possibly even with a different chemistry. Once a “low cost low weight” extender can be established, it may very well be a common accessory for the BEV. We chastise EV drivers for lugging around an extra engine but never complain about carrying a battery bigger than our needs. Weight is weight and money is money. I personally want to buy a battery that fits 85-90% of my needs winter and summer, but gladly will pay $3-$4K and give up some efficientcy to greatly extend that range.
        So yeah, if you think outside the box a little, the number could be closer than you think.

    2. Peder Norby says:

      10 years ago there was only crt TV’s at the store 🙂

  5. Warren says:

    There are so many environmental, economic, and political uncertainties now, that any prediction of how many cars, let alone, EREV’s will be sold in ten years is fantasy.

    1. Mark H says:

      Very true Warren. I read an article the other day that compared the (very distant) auto to the cigarette. You are the exception to the rule here who could see that. The extender is very American in the category of those who want it all. I am guilty as charged in that category. In a world where energy is more expensive, I personally like the scenario where I make my own and the costs are fixed. So the numbers of EVs are irrelevant in the short term but hey, counting is what we do and I love it as much as the next guy/gal.
      The 800 pound gorilla in the room is as you said enviroment but we refuse to talk about it

      1. Warren says:

        From age 12 to 22 I worshiped anything with a motor. Grew up in the Midwest building minibikes, go carts, and powerboats with my dad. Lived sports cars, and motorcycles.

        I remember a rare fictional short story, in either Road & Track, or Car & Driver, about a “dystopian” future where cigarettes and cars were outlawed.

        If only…

  6. Ed Cheung says:

    Have been researching to buy am EV for past 3 months. Have to say for the US consumer, the EREV will probably dominate in the next 10 years unless there is a paradigm shift in the battery and charging technology. The whole process feels like paying $1200 for the first IPhone and getting subsidies from the phone carriers.

    I initially was going to get the Tesla but then retracted my deposit because of the price and back log. Then I nearly bought the Leaf but am having a change of heart after driving over 70 miles for various meetings over a few days. Now I seem to be settled on the Volt mainly because the of the flexibility at the current time. I have to agree with the gentleman above. I commute about 40 mile round trip every day. Why drag around a large heavy battery when I do not need it 90% of the time?

    However, everyone needs that flexibility to go the extra distance when needed. It is also going to change the mindset of everyone. I am sure everyone automatically comes home and charges their phone as they walk in the door. The same will be true of EVs no matter what make of car.