Report: Tesla Model S Demand Continues To Outstrip Supply


Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S in Australia

Tesla Model S in Australia

It seems like every time that supply of the Tesla Model S begins to catch up with demand, Tesla Motors responds by making the Model S available in more countries or by adding new feature sets to the Model S to reignite demand.

Therefore, it seems that demand for the Model S almost always outstrips supply.

Global Equity Research’s Trip Chowdhry believes that demand for the Model S still outstrips supply.  Here’s how he explains the current situation (via Barron’s):

  • Tesla’s Factory in Fremont is currently manufacturing about 1,200 to 1,250 cars per week
  • The shift to 85kWh version of Model S is very significant. 85kWh version of Model S is $10K more than 60kWh version of Model S
  • This quarter, probably between between 3,000 to 4,000 P85D’s will be delivered, with an average ASP of $129K
  • We estimate that the above will probably increase the ASP by about 5% to 8%
  • Demand continues to outstrip Supply: Everyday probably between 170 to 200 of Model S are being booked
  • Tesla’s Autopilot, Instant Torque, Safety, Designer Looks and Driving experience, are the primary reasons Tesla’s Demand is outstripping Supply
  • Starting last week of December’2014, some stores may have P85D for test drives, with probably all the stores having P85D available for test drives by March’2015
  • Once TSLA starts giving the Test drives on P85D, the demand for P85D could just continue getting strong
  • Every data point we have indicates that Demand is outstripping Supply

Gauging Model S demand is tricky business and with Tesla’s refusal to report monthly sales, it’s hard to put an exact figure out, but we agree at least in part with Chowdry’s insistence that demand still exceeds supply through year’s end and into early 2015.

Source: Barrons

Category: Tesla


45 responses to "Report: Tesla Model S Demand Continues To Outstrip Supply"
  1. Stephen Hodges says:

    Oh, I thought they were supposed to be on the decline, ah well, anyone like to do an article about the nay-Sayers and predictors of doom and how they have fared?

  2. Mikael says:

    1250 a week? That’s at least 5000 per month.

    So when are they going to start delivering more than 2500 per month on avergae then?

    Well, not until the demand is higher than that because it’s in their strategy to keep a certain buffer of demand even though they could build and deliver a lot more.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      no, today Tesla is building exactly as many Model S as Panasonic can deliver battery cells for battery packs.

      1. ffbj says:

        So wait times for your negative comments are decreasing. Does that mean that demand for them is falling? Probably not since demand for them was already negative and clearly there is an oversupply of said comments.

        1. ffbj says:

          Wrong person, sorry that was meant for See Through. I was going to give plus 1 to Jouni comment.

        2. See Through says:

          So you are saying that demand for Model S is also negative? Makes sense.

          1. ffbj says:

            Not exactly. Though personally I find your obstinate contrariness refreshing, thereby disproving my own assertion that there is negative demand for your views.

      2. Mikael says:

        It must be a very hard battery to increase the production of. Since production is still at the same level as it has been since september/october 2013.

        Then it might have been a battery constraint. Now it’s rather that they have adapted to the current demand level.

        1. Fredrik says:

          The reason the production is similar between 2013/2014 is because the factory was runing fine in early 2013 and was running 24/7 the entire year. This year, 2014 they have closed down the production several times to create more room for cars to be produced and finishing the model X productionline.
          2015 they plan to significantly increase their production.

          1. Mikael says:

            You totally missed the point. 🙂 The point being that Panasonic have had plenty of time to up their production capacity, which they also have.
            Tesla has also increased their production capacity. Yet the numbers are not increasing more than slightly at best.

            So the most likely reason why they aren’t delivering in higher numbers after all the upgrades is to keep the order stock at an even level by producing as much as the orders that come in.

            A demand level that might rise since they have plenty of markets to explore and to develop.

            1. Fredrik says:

              Well we have to also keep in mind that with the new Iphone that came out recently and the apple watch which is currently being mass produced the availability of lithiumbatteries might not be perfect at the moment. But i still agree that the batteri issue might not be as severe as Tesla makes it out to be. It seems logical not to expand their factory since it’s not really needed at the moment, they can hade a 2 month queue without it causing any issue.

            2. Lensman says:

              See Through said:

              “So you are saying that demand for Model S is also negative? Makes sense.”

              Let’s see… Tesla sold (well, delivered) the largest monthly sales of plug-in EVs in North America, for -any- PEV maker, ever, in December. More than the Volt ever has; more than the Leaf ever has. And this for a car with a base price -twice- as much as a Volt! Tesla did this after increasing the production capacity of their factory by 25%.

              I guess we have different definitions of “negative demand”. (^_^)

              But all snarkiness aside… it’s getting to the point where we should just pat the Tesla bashers on the head and say “That’s nice, dear.” Because by now, their increasingly desperate and increasingly absurd attempts to pretend that EV sales in general (and Tesla sales specifically) are falling or are flat, when actually sales are growing significantly every year, have become as ridiculous as claiming the Earth is flat.

          2. Three Electrics says:

            A time of slowing demand is also the perfect time to take down your factory for retooking, so the fact that the factory was offline isn’t really evidence either way.

    2. Brian says:

      Don’t forget that would be total production at the Fremont plant. That includes making cars for Asia and the components for the EU chassis.

      1. Mikael says:

        I’m always at total level unless otherwise stated. That is the combines Asia/US/Europe level and has been so for quite a while.

  3. See Through says:

    This guy is bogus. When he says “Every data point we have indicates that Demand is outstripping Supply”, he means the Tesla factory lobby seemed busy when he visited it near end of quarter.

    When this guy predicts $400 target, stock tanks to $200! He meant, at the end of December, Tesla produced 1250 cars in sSOME week, to meet Musk’s statement of “run rate of blah at end of year’. Rest of the year remained dry.

  4. See Through says:

    “… insistence that demand still exceeds supply through year’s end and into early 2015.”

    If that was the case, wait times should have been increasing. Instead, we see wait times dropping to 3-4 weeks.

    1. Brian says:

      The current wait on a newly built car is at “Late March”. Can you please point to the 3-4 week wait that you know of? I’m sure some people would love the car sooner. That wait is for every model, including the P83D.

      1. Mike says:

        Trolls don’t want No Stinken Facts.

        1. Anon says:

          He seems to be off his meds today… Witness his multiple frothing posts, below:

      2. See Through says:

        You are too gullible, and are easily fooled by Tesla gimmicks. They jump the delivery date to end of next quarter once the car can’t be delivered in current quarter.
        Just scan the TMC forums. Cars ordered in early December in US were delivered in Q4. Then, suddenly, the estimate jumps to March.

      3. See Through says:

        Check the thread “Thread: Model S Order & Delivery Tracker” on teslamotorsclub dot com. See line # 174 in the google doc in the first comment. Ordered 25 Nov. Delivered 29 Dec for 85. 85D orders for Dec delivery were open till Dec 5th.

        1. LuStuccc says:

          It depends which model you order, it may also indicate that the production line gets quicker.

    2. jone says:

      The 4 wk wait time is only for the P85D, other cars is much longer. And, the S85D hasn’t even been delivered yet, many, many people have it on order.

    3. Lensman says:

      Seriously, See Through? Do you think anyone can’t see thru the gaping hole in your (il)logic and basic math here?

      Since the factory increased production significantly, then wait times should go -down-. The fact that wait times have -not- gone down significantly is an indication of -increased- demand.

      Dude, if you’re gonna try to bash Tesla, at least try to come up with something that isn’t so -obviously- wrong.

  5. See Through says:

    What fact did you or your analyeast friend Trip produce? Not a shred of fact, only baseless rosy predictions.

    1. Les says:

      Oh See through, you think your telling it like it is, trying to turn grey into black and white (incorrectly all the time). I don’t think you have any idea, and by everyone else labelling you a troll, they don’t either. Wait times in Australia are at March. But that could be because that is the next time they are sending RHD models this way. Any information not from Tesla is always going to be a guess, as Elon has previously said.

  6. Well I agree Autopilot is definitely important. When people realize the demo was staged and the features Tesla advertised are never coming to the real world, yes, that will influence demand.

    1. Keef Wivaneff says:

      What…you mean like the Great Battery Swap Illusion?

  7. Brian Henderson says:

    Some like to complain that “demand is tricky business and with Tesla’s refusal to report monthly sales, it’s hard to put an exact figure out”.

    The quarterly figures are available and have been consistent in growth over the past 6-8 quarters. Asking Tesla to provide monthly production data is like asking a larger volume manufacture to provide weekly production data. The problem with a shorter reporting periods is it involves smaller sample volume and the data picks up a lots of noise … great for speculators as it gives them lots to discuss as noise changes from period to period. With larger timeframe, larger production volumes reduce minor timings from batch to batch.

    Beside the just introduced Model D in the recent quarter, Tesla has a backlog in Model X stretching into 2016. How many manufactures have this level of backlog across multiple products? Remember once Model S deliveries started in 2012/13 the backlog grew longer as many customers watching stepped forward to queue up. I’m expecting we’ll see similar with the Model X in 2016/17. The over-all demand is not likely to decrease much before 2018 when reservations for the Model 3 start.

    The trick as volumes increase is maintaing a high quality produce. Maintaing quality is just as much a control value to volume as is the the speed at which the supply line can grow.

    1. See Through says:

      Demand is so high, that Tesla shipped out the P85Ds with old seats, just to make the numbers in Q4. A total recall is in order here.

  8. Mike e says:

    Fact is fact. no profit. Period. If u long, get out. Economy is going back down

    1. LuStuccc says:

      All directions expansion is good news. Accouting profits will come later.

  9. Keef Wivaneff says:

    The only thing that is outstripped is the cogs in the drive-train.
    What a piece of plop!

  10. jim a says:

    I own two Tesla Model S purchased 10 months apart, the difference in VIN# is 40,000 which indicates an average of 4,000/ month.
    The time from order to delivery of the 2nd Model S was over 4 months. I live 700 miles from Tesla, Freemont factory.
    What does this true story tell you.

    1. See Through says:

      It tells me:
      1) You ordered in the last month of quarter, so your delivery got pushed to end of next quarter. Tesla didn’t care much to keep you waiting so long without a good reason.
      2. The VIN numbers are also bogus. According to Tesla itself, it never produced 4000 cars/month over 10 months. So, how do you explain the difference in VIN?

    2. lzl says:

      When will you be ordering a third one?

    3. Priusmaniac says:

      When will you be selling your used first one, as a second hand, to someone that would happen to be around here?

  11. Tftf says:

    Good old Trip. He had a terrible track record on stocks like Apple:

    Now he unleashes his magic on Tesla.

    He even refers to Sanyo as a potential future battery suppplier for Tesla. Maybe someone should tell him Panasonic bought Sanyo years ago…

    I could go on but I don’t want to waste my Sunday.

    Reat these reports for entertainment value only.

  12. picard says:

    Was at a particular delivery center over last week where they were pumping out Q4 cars. They said they were doing 50 deliveries a week, and this pace was something like 4-5 cars a week just 8 months ago.

    1. See Through says:

      Notice the comparison was with a week EXACTLY 8 months ago, not 6 or 3 months ago. Did they deliver 50 cars for just a week, or many weeks? Why don’t you pay a visit this week and see how it’s going?

  13. Spec9 says:

    Well, you still can’t find used ones for cheap prices. I’ve tried.

  14. martinwinlow says:

    If anyone cares to look at the data provided here … … (Table VEH0120), you can see for yourself just how many MS’ have been registered in the UK (474 by the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014). Doesn’t every civilised country do this? If so, you can find out for yourself and ignore the trolls – of which there are many!

    Interestingly, if you compare Tesla’s sales with all the BMW cars whose model number starts with a 6,7 or 8 registered in the UK in the same 6 month period it totals just 70… (but 1168 X5s & 104k Range Rovers! – I thought we were in a recession!).

  15. david_cary says:

    Just ordered P85D and estimate is Late March. It is well known that first 2 months of quarter go international and last month is US. This does help optimize quarterly numbers but they have been doing this for several quarters and the effect is minimal – little bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

    Used prices are down a bit for sure but nothing dramatic. There is a ton of demand at the $50-$60k price point I suspect so it may still be 2 years before you see used under $50k reliably. In a year, I suspect it will happen with high mileage 2013 cars but moderate mileage will stay above $50k

  16. Get Real says:

    Well sEE tHROUGH, it does appear that your incessant Anti-Tesla negativity is really becoming an obsessive-compulsive disorder for you. You should probably see a doctor about that unless of course its just a lifestyle choice for you.