Report Says Electric Cars Will Match ICE Range, Refilling Times By 2024

JUL 8 2018 BY MARK KANE 85

Australia lags in terms of electric car sales (0.1% market share), but there are hopes that the situation will change sooner or later.

According to a new report by Energeia (commissioned by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), both federal green banks), electric cars are expected to become more like internal combustion engine cars in terms of range and recharging time by 2024. That would help push the path of fast growth.

It’s not like any of this is new news to us. It’s always been the case that lower prices, faster recharging and a robust public charging network will push electric cars past ICE. It’s just a matter of when that will all happen in countries around the globe.

The forecast says that sales will grow slow for the next 10 years or so, before starting to take off in 2027. That’s the base scenario, without additional support.

As Financial Review states:

The report by consultancy Energeia says sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase sharply once a two-year payback – based on fuel savings compared to the initial EV price premium – is achieved. After this point, they will come to dominate sales of new vehicles.

If the government introduces subsidies (manufacturers would be happy), sales will take off as early as 2021. Plug-in cars would take 50% market share by 2030 and 90% of entire fleet would be switched over to electric by 2050.

The report adds this comment by Clean Energy Finance Corporation (corporation that commissioned the report) chief :

Australians have traditionally been early adopters of new technology, but we’re lagging when it comes to EVs. This research shows that we can increase the uptake of EVs in a way that benefits drivers as well as the environment. It’s about lowering prices, supporting more models and creating a charging network.

The reality is that the transition to EVs is inevitable. We’re already seeing vehicle makers confirm they will stop producing pure internal combustion engines over the coming years.

With Australia’s vast expanses of open land, charging will always be a concern. There needs to be a public charging infrastructure in place there, or else EV adoption will not take off. Unlike in some countries where the population is packed tightly together, Australia is rather spread out, meaning that getting in place a proper infrastructure may be challenging.

Electric cars are currently just 0.1% of new car sales in Australia.

Another hold back in Australia is lack of charging infrastructure along main routes.

Source: afr.com

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85 Comments on "Report Says Electric Cars Will Match ICE Range, Refilling Times By 2024"

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Rick

Sounds accurate, I don’t have a hard time believing that.

Putradude

It’s doable but it won’t be true for each new car model before at least 5 more years.

John

It’s happening. ICE curmudgeons would like us to believe that EV technology will be the the first tech in the history of invention that doesn’t improve, it’s already reached its maximum potential- which we all know is in its beginning stages still. It’s amazing to see how fast the progression is happening!

David Green

Wow, that would really be something if true parity could be achieved. I am not as confident this will happen.

Viking79

Honestly, I don’t think it needs to. I think 15 min for about 200 miles is plenty fast. Tesla Model 3 LR is the slowest I would want (170 mi/30 min), but still fast enough for me.

R.S

I recently had a discussion about EV charging times and brought up the Porsche 15 minutes for 200 miles.

The person I argued with said that’s still too long and she wouldn’t know what to do in those 15 minutes, so we made a bet on how long she and her family would stop at their next long trip. Munich to Garda (Lake Garda, Italy). In total the trip is about 250 miles and when she came back, she told me she really stopped the time of each stop. None quicker than 15 minutes and 3 of those on the whole trip.

Sure, she has children, but she admitted, that she would have needed at least one stop and for at least 15 minutes.

So IMO, if you can charge at home and your destination(!!), 15 minutes for 200 miles is enough, so that your car isn’t the limiting factor anymore.

But once we start talking about people w/o guaranteed access to a charging spot, I think quicker charging will be necessary. Just for the peace of mind.

LS

Interesting, but I don’t think we necessarily need to match gas fueling times. EVs have so many other advantages that most people will accept a somewhat longer fueling stop. So even if it takes 20 min instead of 10 3 times a year on a roadtrip but the remaining 340 days a year you are never waiting to refuel, that’s a huge net gain.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I agree that it’s the totality of perceived value, usefulness and convenience (as well as more emotional factors such as style and comfort) that are the basis for people’s choices on which car to buy.

But there’s also the psychological factor that Americans, in general, won’t wait for any delay of more than 15 minutes. I think the psychological barrier to waiting 15 minutes or longer is going to be a serious impediment to the growth of plug-in EV sales. When BEVs are engineered to charge to 80% in, let’s say, 12 minutes or less, then I think we’ll finally see sales really take off in a big way.

Sure, some people will willingly wait 20 or 30 minutes (or even longer) for an en-route charge. But will sales of such cars ever break out of the very small “early adopter” market segment? I think not. But I’d be quite happy to be proven wrong on this subject! 🙂

Heisenberght 3.0

“But will sales of such cars ever break out of the very small “early adopter” market segment? I think not. But I’d be quite happy to be proven wrong on this subject! 🙂”

Thanks to Norway you are already proven wrong 😉 Around 50% of all cars sold there are “such cars”. It’s really a cost thing.

In the coming years we will finally start to see increasing competition in the EV market -> Falling prices + better tech -> higher adoption rate.

Future is bright!

antrik

To be fair, half of them are PHEV; so “only” about 25% actually have the recharging time issue… Still, that’s clearly beyond “early adopters” 🙂

God/Bacardi

While its inevitable EVs will happen, but Norway is not the U.S…

R.S

Sure, but people with no access to home charging will probably want the assurance, that they can quickly recharge, if they can’t park at a slow charger overnight. Just like you would refuel a car today.

Maybe it might not happen too often, but I think EVs would sell much better to those customers, if they knew they might just have to spend 5-10 minutes at a charging station, instead of 40-50 minutes, for example. For long distance driving 30 minutes would probably also work for most.

Though, I think people often fear the waiting times are a lot worse, than they actually are.

Taylor Marks

Charging stations can be anywhere that you park your car for 15 minutes a week. Work and Home are common things that people bring up, but I think that grocery stores would actually be a fantastic place for EV chargers. I’d guess the typical household has a weekly grocery trip of at least 15 minutes.

BriBrn

Generally I agree and recharging time below 30 minutes (for 200-300 km) is fast enough for me but I do worry a bit about peak charging periods like when everybody seems to go on vacations at the same time in the summer possibly through areas with low population and you can sometimes wait for more than 30 minutes just to refill the gas. Maybe a new business case/opportunity for portable fast chargers (maybe with bunch of batteries on trucks) will solve these issues.

ga2500ev
I think an interesting question here, as in waiting in line during holidays, is what the passengers in the waiting EV gets to do while waiting. It’s certainly one thing to have to sit in a line and wonder how long it”s going to be before you get to the front. But with EV charging another model is possible where the family just parks, plugs in, and walks away into the surrounding environment. The car may not start charging instantaneously. But the family doesn’t have to sit in the car and wait either. They can go eat, use the facilities, shop, or other activities nearby. When it’s the cars turn to charge it starts automatically and informs the family when its finished. So the experience becomes park and go do something while the car charges as opposed to sitting and waiting in line to get to the charger. I can be done by having each fast travel charger service 6-8 parking spots with a smart queuing system that suggests the faster charger to park and plug. It should even be possible to have an app that tells the average wait times for various chargers along the route along with the… Read more »
antrik

I’m not convinced having many more plugs than actual chargers would save all that much cost… I suspect installation costs for the stalls (along with cabling) are higher than the costs of the chargers. So you’d be putting money in a lot more plugs for more effective queueing, instead of installing just a few more chargers to solve actual throughput problem…

The biggest problem in some areas might be getting a powerful enough grid connection.

antrik

Of course the real solution is making sure everyone gets guaranteed access to a charging spot 🙂 AFAIK the city of Amsterdam actually does that?

David Green

Agree… if you can get 200 miles in 15 minutes, that would be awesome. The issue I have is most don’t want a low slung RWD sedan, we need to be able to put 200 miles in 15 minutes into a crossover sized vehicle what a majority of people want to own.

Viking79

True, but everything needs to be larger in SUV to get same performance. The power needs to be higher to accelerate as fast, the battery needs to be larger to provide added power, which will also equalize the range, and a larger battery can handle more charging power, so all it really means is the larger vehicle will cost proportionately more. No real additional technical challenges.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Sure, a larger vehicle with a higher capacity battery pack will charge faster, all else being equal.

But that also requires the charging station to provide more power. That’s the other side of the ultrafast charge “equation”. It takes both: Cars which can charge faster, and chargers which can provide sufficient power to take advantage of that.

BillT

I am a sedan guy myself but I agree that most people want CUVs these days and probably aren’t willing to trade off much ride height / interior space for aerodynamics. So, we need 100-150 kWh batteries plus 100k+ kW chargers to become affordable and ubiquitous to reach parity with ICE. I would love to see that by 2024 but that is only about 5 1/2 years away so color me skeptical. I think we will be there for *sedans and small hatchbacks* by 2024. US mass market vehicles will get there later.

mzs.112000

Right now, Electrify America is deploying charging stations, they will eventually have at least one station every 50 miles, on every major route in the US. AFAIK each of those stations will have at least 4 stalls, and most of those are 150kW and 350kW, with some 50kW ones scattered through there to serve the current crop of low-range EV’s so they don’t clog up the faster stalls with slow charging.

Next, we have the Kia Niro EV(239 mile range, 100kW DCFC, 64kWh battery), Hyundai Kona EV(239 mile range, 100kW DCFC, 64kWh battery), Jaguar I-Pace(240 mile range, 150kW DCFC, 90kWh battery), 2019 Nissan Leaf(225 mile range, 100kW DCFC, 60kWh battery), Audi E-Tron(248 mile range, 150kW DCFC, 95kWh battery), and the Chevy Bolt EV(238 mile range, 50kW DCFC, 60kWh battery).
Do you notice the trend? We are already at the point where EV’s that are competitive with ICE in the US market are possible. Within the next 5 years, we will see even 60kWh batteries go away much like the old crop of 24kWh to 40kWh ones are going away, soon everyone will be using 100kWh batteries for over 300 miles of range.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Exactly! The trend is clear: Larger capacity battery packs and shorter charging time. That trend isn’t going to stop anytime soon, altho the “5 minute charge by 2024” assertion seems far too optimistic.

antrik

I’m pretty sure a two-year payback should be achievable even for oversized vehicles by 2024. A 100 kWh battery might cost something like $6000 by that time; and the rest of the power train being cheaper than for a combustion car, the total markup should be less than $3000. I doubt many SUVs get away with less then $1500 for fuel and maintenance per year?…

Ziv

This. Even if we don’t get to 300 miles of additional AER in 5 minutes, there are charge speeds short of that will satisfy a huge portion of the car buying public. 15 minutes of charging for an additional 200 miles of driving will get you 2.5 hours down the road. That would satisfy more than half of today’s car buyers, I believe.

David Green

Agree….

ga2500ev

But will it match in price? Honestly neither range nor refilling times are the crucial factors.

Make EVs 30% cheaper than their ICE counterparts. Offer EVs in the top 20 of car styles. Create a useful EV charging infrastructure.

Then and only then will the uptick occur.

ga2500ev

Link

Norway proves exactly that. The government incentives don’t speed up charging times or extend the range, all they do is making cars cheaper. And just with that BEVs already gained 30% market share in Norway.

antrik

To be fair, from what I gathered public parking spots generally already have outlets in Norway (originally installed for electric heaters), which is not the case in most of the world…

antrik

While EVs should eventually undercut combustion cars in many segments (depending on battery size vs. power of combustion engine they replace), 30% is outright impossible AFAIK, since the power train makes up less than 30% of the cost of a typical car…

Gasbag

Price parity by 2024 is plausible. Recharge parity is not. Most ICEVs refuel at rates well above 12,000 mph while most BEVs are below 200 mph.

A 10 fold increase in C rates for batteries and doubling of average battery capacity would still leave BEVs at a fraction of the vast majority of ICEVs. Given the projected battery costs at price parity and a 10 C charge rate we would actually expect this to lead to smaller capacity batteries Due to the cost.

With that said it isn’t necessary for EVs to match ICEV recharge rates. At 900 mph charge rates are a non factor for 96% of those surveyed and at 450 for about two thirds of drivers surveyed.

GuyMan

Source for the survey that your quoting? – I’m mildly interested in reading this, as I’ve never seen charger rates referenced in mph before..

Gasbag

I’ll see if I can locate it for you. You are correct in that it did not express charge rates in mph but rather in minutes that they were willing to wait.
10 minutes was the 96%. Combining the minutes with with range requirements allows us to determine charge rate in mph irrespective of the efficiency of the. EV.

Scott Franco

Sure, so that is flawed from the getgo. If you ask people “would you be willing to wait: 10 minutes” for a charge, non EV owners are assuming that the car fits the patterns they currently use their gas car for. I.e, you go to the gas station once a week, fill it up for 10 minutes. When on the road, you fill for 10 minutes every 2-3 hours.

Now ask them: “if you NEVER had wait to fill up your car again, but the price of that was waiting 20 minutes to fill every 3 hours while on the road, would that be acceptable”? You would get a different answer.

There is no pat solution here. EVs are not gas cars. They don’t work the same, they are not used the same. People will get that in time.

Gasbag

“fill for 10 minutes every 2-3 hours.”

The survey contradicted this. Few people drive for more than two hours at a stretch. A super majority typically will drive from 90-120 minutes before taking a break. Some even less. To be certain there are those who will drive longer but they are a distinct minority.

Senna

But you cannot always stop magically at a charger!

antrik

Neither can you always stop magically at a gas station 🙂

Chargers should eventually outnumber gas stations (since they are easier to install); and even if they don’t, at some point the extra reserve you need to consider becomes a minor factor in range/charging time calculations.

Derek

When I take a road trip (couple times a year) I usually go around 5 hours between stops…and that’s because I need to fill up.

EVShopper

Are you young and traveling alone or with a family and kids?

antrik

That’s a really unhealthy habit; and you are a tiny minority 🙂

Scott Franco
It depends. Battery recharge times are not going to match anyone who makes it a contest to get in, refill a gas car as fast as possible, and then gets back on the road as fast as possible. But that is not the goal. Let’s do some real world with my Telsa M3. I leaves my house with about 320 miles of range, so 4.5 hours of theoretical range time, but more like 4 hours at 70mph real world speeds with no reserve, and 3 hours with reserve (nobody drives until empty or even near that, more like about 50miles left). That’s a long time to be on the road. I have seen the M3 boosted from 50 miles to 250 miles in about 20 minutes. A 30 minute charge brings that to near 300 miles again, because of charge taper. So for long trips, we are seeing about 3 hour drive times with 30 minute breaks. Those are reasonable numbers, and they about match what we had when we traveled by gas engine. Also, for any trip we take, that “first 30 minute fill” never happens, since we leave the house with an overnight charge. Add to this the… Read more »
Gasbag

“I have seen the M3 boosted from 50 miles to 250 miles in about 20 minutes.”

That would be considerably faster than what Tesla advertises and what others have demonstrated for the LR M3. 170 miles in 30 minutes or 340 mph is what others report. The SR M3 is below 300 mph per Tesla.

340 mph means about 113 EPA miles in 20 minutes which may be adequate to drive 90 minutes at 65 mph placing the LRM3 at the margin of being an acceptable road machine.

antrik

Just a few days ago we had an article here showing that the Model 3 often charges much faster than advertised…

LS

> Most ICEVs refuel at rates well above 12,000 mph while most BEVs are below 200 mph.

A BEV at 100kW will be at around 400-500mph charging rate.

In any case though, that is not a useful comparison since no one fuels for an hour. What’s useful is how much range you can get in a typical stop. For a 10 min stop, that would be about 300 miles in a gas car (filling 10 gallons) and perhaps 65 miles in a current electric. So gas car is 4.5 times faster.
But now you stop to use the washroom and grab a coffee. Total time 20 min stop.
Gas car is still 300 miles, electric is 150 miles. Now it’s only 2 times faster.

So all we really need is an about 2 to 3 times increase in charging rates and stops will be comparable in most cases.

Gasbag
“A BEV at 100kW will be at around 400-500mph charging rate.” Real world numbers our Bolt and Leaf advertise 90 miles or less at 50kW. That means 180 mph at 50kW. If it scaled that would mean 360 mph at 100 kW and 540 mph at 150 kW. “In any case though, that is not a useful comparison since no one fuels for an hour. What’s useful is how much range you can get in a typical stop. For a 10 min stop” You’re suggesting I use decaminutes or mpd which is mph divided by 6. Most people understand what mph is but not mpd. As long as you can divide by six you can calculate mpd. hat would be about 300 miles in a gas car (filling 10 gallons) and perhaps 65 miles in a current electric. So gas car is 4.5 times faster. I’m not sure about gas pumps where you live but here in California most gas pumps are rated at 10 gpm. A Ford F-150 is rated at 26 mpg highway meaning a rate of 2,600 mpd or 15,600 mph. “But now you stop to use the washroom and grab a coffee. Total time 20 min… Read more »
EVShopper

“For a 10 min stop, that would be about 300 miles in a gas car (filling 10 gallons)”. Umm,…average mpg in the US is only 25mpg. So 250 miles, not 300.

Seven Electrics

To see the future of EV sales, look to California. That’s the most reliable indicator.

Get Real

AS proven by the tens of thousands of sales of Teslas in California now moving to the hundreds of thousands of sales!

Heisenberght 3.0

Or maybe even better extend your horizon past the USA and look at Norway.

Around 50% market share for PEV.
Around 30% market share for BEV.
Around 6% of car fleet already electrified.

Troy

this is also why I pulled the trigger on a 40kWh Leaf instead of waiting for the 60kWh LG ones coming out later this year (probably in a trickle).

The 40kWh will tide me over fine for the next 6 years, and should still be worth ~~something~~ — $8000? — in 2024.

The more BEVs on the road the lower gas prices will go, but somehow I think we’ll be seeing $5 gas in 2024, which will make BEVs worth a lot more on the used market.

David Green

The 2018 Leaf is a great value proposition…. Depreciation and all, it still makes total sense financially. You just have to squeeze the dealer for a good deal to sweeten the economics.

Lou Grinzo

Strongly agree. When my wife and I were EV shopping a few months ago, we had several long conversations about whether to go with a car we didn’t like that had longer range and a TMS and a higher price (Bolt) or one we liked a lot with shorter range, no TMS, and a much lower price (Leaf). Since our 2013 Leaf showed no battery degradation, we decided to risk living with another non-TMS vehicle this time around. So far (nearly 4 months in) we love the car and the increase in range over my ’13.

Note: Part of the price differential was due to conditions that did not apply to all consumers, including a nearly $1,000 rebate on a ridiculously high repair bill and a discount my wife got through her employer.

David Green

My buddy just bought a 2018 Leaf, I am super impressed, its a nice car for the money… There is no better EV value.

Marc E

Seconded, two months into owning the 2018 with 40 kWh and for sure the nicest car I’ve had. 160 miles at 55-60 mph for the few occasions you take longer trips is well enough, that’s about when me and wife needs a break anyway.

Rob R

Solar array + battery + charger works perfectly in the Outback. Set it up right and its basically a magic money tree.

Get Real

Actually, solar PV+EV(s) works perfectly basically everywhere and is like printing your own money once payback is reached (for me it was in less then 3 years).

PV is truly a future-proof asset.

David Green

Can you show me the calculations for a 3 year payback? I am investing over 100K in our new home in green energy, and cannot see it ever paying back financially. I am just doing it to learn about, the systems, and promote it to others. But the $$ calculation does not work as near as I can tell. I am not trolling you, I honestly want to see the numbers, as maybe I am buying the wrong equipment from the wrong people?

Pushmi-Pullyu

There are a lot of factors which affect the cost/benefit equation quite a bit. How much unshaded roof area do you have? What latitude to you live at? Which direction(s) does your roof face? What is the average number of sunny days where you live?

And what kind of financial advantage, if any, does your State/region offer, in the way of subsidy for installing a home solar power system and/or “net metering” to take advantage of selling power back to the utility?

The answer for one person may be very, very different than the answer for another, based on all these factors.

It’s best to use one (or several) of the online solar energy system calculators. I can’t recommend one from personal experience, but here’s a website that appears informative:

https://solar-to-the-people.com/solar-panel-calculators/

David Cary

$100k?

13kw system here for $34k, $18k net of federal tax credit and utility rebate.
Along with some extra insulation, air source heat pump, heat pump hot water, proper window planning, good air sealing (3800sqft) – $10k. Utility rebate $5k on that.

So $44k in; Net cost $23k. Cash flow positive day one on a 30 year mortgage.

Net zero predicted – 15,000 Kwh generation, 15,000 usage. I expect to have some left over for cars….

But 3 years – that is pretty hard. Maybe with $.40 kwh peak

Chris Stork
Bashers who dwell on “refilling time” always conveniently neglect the cumulative time spent gassing up a car; not just the 5-6 minutes standing out in whatever the weather is throwing at you, but the extra time driving to the gas station. (If you’re lucky to have a reasonably priced station right on your usual commute path, you still have to get out of traffic, pull in, and park. It adds up.) This doesn’t become so obvious until you switch to EV and no longer have to do it, because we all grew up with it as a necessary evil related to owning a car. Here’s some back-of-the-envelope numbers: let’s say you gas up every other week at 15 minutes apiece: that’s over six hours a year, and an hour and a half of that is standing outside the car swiping your card and pumping. You can’t walk away, and you can’t even browse your phone (at least you shouldn’t, because a spark from a phone can make gas fumes go boom). By contrast, I drive a Model S 70D (about 236 mi range now) and have to supercharge about 8 times a year, usually for about 30 minutes per charge.… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu

Thank you!

I get so tired of reading about a gasmobile “two minute fill-up time” from EV bashers. Well, if you literally count only the time it takes to physically pump gasoline into your car, then yeah. But that’s ignoring the time and inconvenience required for driving to and from the gas station, once a week or so, and it assumes you never go into the station to pay for gas, or grab a soda, or otherwise do anything other than stand at the pump and always pay by credit card.

It also ignores the fact that charging time is only waiting time for a BEV driver on an extended driving trip, where the amount of energy the car was charged with isn’t sufficient. Otherwise, in daily use for most BEV drivers, charging time equals no waiting time at all!

Spending 15 to 30 seconds at night to plug in a BEV, and the same to unplug it the next morning, doesn’t take more time than filling a gasmobile per week. It takes less time!

darth

Agree. It takes me 4 seconds to plug in, and 4 to unplug for a total of 8 seconds a day.

Troy

plus waiting 20 minutes in the line at Costco for the cheapest gas . . .

CDAVIS

From article: “…The forecast says that sales will grow slow for the next 10 years or so, before starting to take off in 2027…”
————-

I agree with that assessment had it been made 8-10 years ago.

Ten years from now likely only 3-4 car makers will produce 80% of consumer cars and those cars will be EV… massive automotive defragmentation on the near horizon.

EV sales have already started to take off and 10 years from now seIling an ICE car will be like today trying to sell a tube television or flip phone.

The rate of change from ICE to EV will be much faster than most automotive analyst are today contemplating and few traditional car makers will be prepared to participate in such a rapid changing market.

Which means over next 10 years there will be a massive market share shift from traditional car makers that believe in the narrative “it will be 10 years before EVs take off” to those select few car makers that believe EVs can be made commercially viable today and are aggressively pursuing that path.

EVShopper

I’m an EV enthusiast, but I think you are overestimating how fast things will change. Go spend time talking to people that have no idea about electric cars. Overcoming the lack of knowledge and skepticism is going to take along time. You might be right on your estimates if you said 20 years. And I’m not convinced about only 3-4 automakers delivering 80% of the cars.

John

I think what may be lost in the whole reasoning for quick turnaround charging time is the need to keep charging stalls available. Obviously the quicker folks can get charged up, the quicker someone else can get to the charger. I believe that need is just as important as individuals getting back on the road in a hurry.

notting

“Report Says Electric Cars Will Match ICE Range, Refilling Times By 2024” – with how much battery degradation and problems for the power supply system? We’re talking about like 200-300kW per charging EV switched on for like max. 15min and then off again…

notting

Scott

EV’s charging costs are stable vs oil prices. Oil is priced globally vs electricity which is priced nationally. As more people move electric, gas prices will be more stable. Everyday the grid becomes cleaner to charging vs the ICE infrastructure that is maxed out. Car companies will have to burn through a lot of cash initially, Like Tesla, to change to EV’s. My Model X charges while I sleep just like my smart phone. Most Tesla owners charge only at the conveniences of home as their batteries are so large. Most Tesla owners fly when it comes to leaving the city. Psychologically, fast charging times, like range anxiety, will help change people’s view of EV’s.

tm

Predicting battery breakthroughs that will drastically improve costs and charging times in less than 6 years is like planning to win lottery, and do it on schedule. Sure you may win lottery and there is probability theory, but only that.

Get Real

As Tesla has already proven, properly designed batteries/DCFC now are good enough NOW and will only get better

Bolt driver

I would disagree. For some trips maybe, but for real long road trips, it’s not there. I will take a trip I did, San Francisco to Colorado Springs, 22 hrs including time to stop and sleep. According to the tesla trip planner with a p100d, that would have been 25 hrs just drive and charge time. A X 75D would be almost 28.5 hrs. That would mean 20% of your travel time is spent charging. That really eats into travel time on long trips.

My Bolt is far worse and really only an in town car. It does a great job with that, but it’s painful for any trip beyond 250-300 miles.

EVShopper

YMMV of course, but on our last big road trip, google said 8 hours drive time. We took 12 hours in an ICE, due to gas and food stops, biologically necessary stops, site seeing, and letting the kids get out and play a bit. A lot of that could have done while charging up an EV. If of course the charging infrastructure were well placed and ubiquitous. But last I checked doing that road trip in even a Tesla would have been a challenge. (And would have required a $100k Model X to fit all of us and our stuff).

By 2024, I expect there will be a lot more EV options at more affordable prices and a much better built out infrastructure.

tm

The title is “Match ICE Range, Refilling Times”, not “it works for me”. Tesla (or anybody else) is not even close on recharging time part while matching range at 300-700 miles at the same time. By order of magnitude or more, even after paying several times more for the car.

To achieve such target you need some other technology than Li Ion available from suppliers now to Tesla or any other BEV maker. Whether such target needs to be reached for 1-2-5-50% EV adoption is not the topic.

Gasbag

“Predicting battery breakthroughs that will drastically improve costs and charging times in less than 6 years is like planning to win lottery”

….but predicting that battery prices will continue to decline is like predicting the sun will rise tomorrow.

In the seven years from 2010 to 2017 battery prices declined by 80% or a CADR of just over 20%. If that trend continues for four more years we will have price parity for efficient EVs and ICEVs.

tm

Gasbag,

Yes the trend is obvious, but drawing a straight line assuming something is nothing but a random guess. It may be asymptote approaching raw material costs or you may have technological breakthrough changing everything. 3-5 minute recharge time assume breakthrough, so the report is random guess.

John Doe

I filled 80 liters of diesel in about 80-90 seconds. Can drive ( in that car) about 1200km.

I think that speed is not needed for most EVs. I would be happy with 15 minutes. I would manage with 20 minutes, if it was cheaper. . 30 minutes if it was even cheaper.. and so on.

I would prefer wireless chargers around where I live. Park, and charge automatically.
That is what’s most convenient in my everyday life.

For some needs/applications a battery swap solutions could be an option. .

Lou Grinzo

I think we need combination EV charging stations and brothels.

EVShopper

For quite some time to [come] Electric cars are going to need more than the 5 minutes most guys need at a brothel /jk

Bill Howland

So that great electric car state, Australia with 0.1% sales of EV’s is going to lead the way to 300 miles of charging in 3 minutes? So that is a charging rate of 6000 miles per hour? SO if a typical mid-sized car or CUV charges currently at 30 mph with a 6 kw charger, that means (assuming some technology advance in batteries, or charging, etc) allows the same efficiency at 1200 kw? In 6 years? At a price that most people can afford?

Yeah right. I thought Aussie’s complained about high electricity rates? 1200 kw to me doesn’t sound exactly cheap.

Pushmi-Pullyu

No offense to Aussies — I have a friend there who I chatted online with just yesterday — but Australia is very far from the leader in supporting EV tech. And I very seriously doubt that’s going to change anytime soon.

The combination of conservative government and few, widely scattered large cities, plus a large amount of area with very low population, gives Australia perhaps the least potential for the EV revolution to progress rapidly, of any first-world nation. Areas with very low population are not going to have the robust electrical grid needed for powering the coming generation of ultrafast, high-power EV chargers*.

There is much more potential in the densely populated nations of Western Europe, where the price of petrol is perhaps twice what it is here in the U.S. (However, unfortunately, electricity prices are also somewhat higher there.)

*And please, don’t argue in favor of solar powered ultrafast EV chargers. (I don’t mean you, Bill; I think you know better.) I’ve done the math using real-world numbers. Those who argue in favor of such a scheme, almost certainly have not. Solar powered slow EV chargers, yes. Ultrafast chargers, no.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Quoting the original article at the (Australian) Financial Review:

Electric cars could match the driving range of petrol and diesel cars by 2024 and have their batteries “filled up” in just five minutes at superchargers, says a new report…

https://www.afr.com/news/electric-cars-to-match-petrol-cars-performance-by-2024–cefc-20180621-h11p3s

A five minute charge?

I’ve been one of the EV supporters arguing most ardently that EV charging times will come down to 10 minutes or less in the coming decade or two, but I think it’s just wishful thinking to believe we’re only six years from having mass produced BEVs that are engineered to charge the battery to 80% or better in just 5 minutes.

That won’t happen with anything like state-of-the-art battery cells. That’s going to take cells with significantly lower internal resistance, which won’t generate nearly as much heat while fast-charging (or ultrafast-charging). That will require a significant advancement in battery tech. I am hoping we’ll see that with solid state batteries; keeping my fingers crossed!

Bill Howland

People don’t take 5 minutes to fill their cars, excepting at the VERY CHEAP stations that only allow cash and no credit cards.

There is a business model for people to buy overpriced snacks or a quart of milk from the co-located convenience store, (and there usually are NOT rest room facilities at these places anyway) , but the vast majority of customers never enter the store period – which is why they all have credit card machines at the pump to make the refueling experience as easy and straight-forward, and fast as possible. Running the establishment costs money, and they are maximizing the sales from all types of customers. If you want some snacks, they’ll satisfy you. If you want to quickly refuel 300 miles and be on your way, they’ll do that too. 3 minutes tops.

Jeff

If EV recharging time really does match ICE fuel refilling time in 6 years, 100% I will buy an EV. So I’m talking about a full charge within 5 mins. As long as there are enough charging stations that are along the routes where I usually go.

EVShopper

Do you do a lot of trips over 200 miles?

krona2k

I’m not sure that electric cars will be a slot in replacement for ICE by then. I am convinced that they will easily be ‘good enough’ in price, range and charging speed by then for a large majority of people.