Report Says Electric Car Prices Will Drop Significantly By 2023

JUN 23 2018 BY JAMES FOSSDYKE 24

Report suggests electric car prices will fall and infrastructure will increase in five years’ time.

Drivers should hold off buying electric cars until 2023 if they want to save money, according to a new UK report.

A study by consumer website Confused.com found that the cost of electric vehicles is expected to come down over the next five years, while the availability of charging infrastructure should improve over that time.

Currently, electric vehicles, or EVs, make up just two percent of new vehicle registrations in 2018, and Confused.com’s study says that’s mainly down to the price of vehicles and a perceived lack of charging points.

According to the company’s survey, 59 percent of drivers are put off by the price of EVs, which are often more expensive than their petrol- or diesel-powered counterparts. For example, an entry-level Nissan Leaf costs £25,190 (after the government’s £4,500 low-emission vehicle grant has been applied), whereas the company’s similarly-sized, petrol-engined Pulsar hatchback starts at just £13,280.

Of more concern to buyers, though, is the charging infrastructure. The Confused.com study found that 73 percent of motorists feel that there aren’t enough readily available charging points.

Even so, one in three drivers (31 percent) would consider buying an electric car. However, Confused.com has recommended holding off on the purchase for ‘up to five years’, predicting a 66 percent increase in charging points by 2023 and tumbling vehicle purchase prices as the technology becomes more widespread.

Amanda Stretton, motoring editor at Confused.com, said: ‘It’s not a case of “if”, but “when” electric cars will become more affordable and viable for the everyday driver. While there are a number of helpful incentives which help to bring down the cost of EVs, Confused.com’s report says that motorists wanting to watch the pennies should consider sitting tight.

‘In five years’ time, drivers should really start to notice a difference in the price tags of electric vehicles, as the cost of batteries comes down and more economical models enter the market. And manufacturers should have a lot more confidence in the commercial viability of the technology as EV infrastructure becomes embedded across our transport network.’

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24 Comments on "Report Says Electric Car Prices Will Drop Significantly By 2023"

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jax

Hold on and go by bicycle..

Lou Grinzo

Bah. I’m going to wait until 2030 and buy a Belchfire 9000 hydrogen car. That’ll show you all.

James

Reports should say there wont be any electric cars by 2023

Get Real

That is as laughable as saying their won’t be any more trolls like you.

Unfortunately their will always be D-bags against progress.

Taylor Marks

IDK, as conflict fades into the past it seems to me the D-bags go away.

I don’t see them arguing that the US should be part of the UK or that women shouldn’t vote.

I don’t think you’ll even have to wait all that long for the Gasholes to go away. I expect they’ll last 20-30 years – longer than the crackberry addicts but not as long as the KKK.

Mikael

I don’t even get your comment. It’s the hottest segment right now and growing like crazy with a number of models in the pipeline that there is really no turning back on and with the Chinese market just hitting 5% and might get close to double digits by the end of the year.

Your comment is like saying that there will be no water in 2023, makes absolutely no sense, is highly inaccurate and has no point.

TomBrown

Please don’t feed the trolls.

Terawatt
Not really news for people who have been paying attention. But it’s an interesting conundrum. I am so keen on more range and freedom than my 2012 LEAF can offer that I really don’t like the idea of waiting several more years. But in Norway it’s also possible waiting will prove very expensive. Electric cars (BEVs) are exempted from car taxes, and we’ve got huge car taxes. Everyone agrees however that this is a temporary measure to encourage adoption, not how it will be when EVs world sell really well without tax incentives. The tax will likely be gradually added, but when this starts and how long it will take is uncertain, since it depends on policymakers. I reckon the next car I buy may very well be my last. If autonomy comes in full bloom before 2030, I certainly won’t want to buy a new car in 2027, because it will be nearly worthless just three years later… So for me personally, I definitely want to upgrade in 2019. But what to do is hard to decide. A used Ioniq might be the smart solution – it’s very useable even for long trips as proven in Bjørn Nyland’s fun… Read more »
ekutter

The good news is all those extra charges that will be coming on board will also help you charge the car you buy today. Similar to the fact that the electric car you buy today will continue to get cleaner with increased renewable energy. The ICE car experience doesn’t improve the longer you own the car.

I actually think the biggest limiter to adoption today as ignorance about them. Until people know someone that has one and sees the benefits, they just don’t seem to pay attention and are likely to buy into the negative fud. Amazing how little people do seem to know about them. Most people I talk to don’t even have a clue that there is a difference between hybrid, PLHE, and BEV. And don’t forget those batteries are way worse for the environment than burning gas.

Dan F.

Here in the USA one must factor in the tax credit (and state incentive) phase outs for each manufacturer to make this decision. It seems highly unlikely that manufacturers will cut their prices by $7,500 (or by $10k in CA if the rebate also goes) as the credit phases out. We’ll start seeing soon with Tesla ,GM and then others.

Robert Quigley

Bought 1st ev 2 yrs ago. USED 2012 miev w 5k miles in perfect condition for $6,800. Was a *test* to see if we could use it daily. Met expectations which included low operating costs. A grandson wanted an electric for city living in Pittsburgh sold the Miev to him for $5k Bought used 2 month old 2017 Leaf w 30kwh battery and 1k miles for $17,600. No rebates on either car. Put 5k miles on Leaf at 2 cents per mile cost. Watch for used deals! People buy new thinking its plug and play ICE replacement which of course is not the case. They dont want to give up old habits. My wife hung in there with me as we incorporated the ev’s into our daily routines. At this point it’s doubtful we would ever buy another ICE vehicle. Side bonus is no gas station stop to buy giant sodas, chips, cookies!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well, that’s always the conundrum in the “early adopter” years of a rapidly improving tech, isn’t it? Whether to buy this year, or wait until a later year when the tech will be both less expensive and have more functionality.

Our first VCR, in 1980, was a huge top-loader with electro-mechanical push-button controls, a not-so-remote control tethered to the machine with a cord, required manual tuning of TV stations using rows of tiny dials, and it cost $1200.

notting

A VCR and it’s “infrastructure” is quite cheap (compared to a car), quick to buy resp. easy to have some reserve at home. So everything you need you just need at home without bigger changes. And it only haves advantages compared to the possible solutions before (=can’t record anything). Also usually you don’t need it to earn money.
But for an EV, you need good special infrastructure like everywhere you want to go. But that needs some bigger changes also at your home, because it usually charges quite slow. The cars before can “recharge” 0->100% in <15min _and_ have more range _and_ the range doesn't get smaller with the age of the battery. So you really have some disadvantages – and higher costs of course.

I think EVs need a revolutionary new battery generation (currently there's only evolution IMHO). But I don't have any idea when that will come with acceptable prices to the car dealers.

notting

Mikael

For a BEV the infrastructure is the same at home. Once you have installed your charger you are good to go with every EV in the future too.

Same infrastructure that is useful now is useful in the future too and faster and faster charging will come before the cars anyway.

The biggest problem for EVs today compared to tomorrow is the range/battery capacity. That is the main factor to keep in mind….

notting

“The biggest problem for EVs today compared to tomorrow is the range/battery capacity. That is the main factor to keep in mind….”
… and quite slow charging -> That’s you you currently got a problem, if you can’t charge at home for some reason or you’re somewhere and want to continue driving quite quickly…

To be able to charge the electricity I need for one day (in worst-case = winter, etc.) in half hour (e.g. when there’s a problem with charging over night), I would probably need 100kW -> 50kWh. Half hour is to long to drive somewhere and wait that time there.
And within cities, I think >=100kW public charging won’t be available in the next years -> capacity problems in the power line network. Maybe except if there’s a important road connecting cities, then the demand could be high enough and other charger far away enough.

notting

TomBrown

My folks’ VCR in the early 80’s was just like that. Was yours by JVC, Pushmi?

Also, do you drive an EV? (I went from Prius To Volt to Tesla S).

Nix

“an entry-level Nissan Leaf costs £25,190 ….. Pulsar hatchback starts at just £13,280.”

Price parity at the bottom end of the car market will be much tougher to hit than price parity in higher priced market segments. Higher priced market segments will reach price parity sooner.

This is why Tesla started at the top with a large luxury sedan, and are working down from there, because they can be price competitive when competing against expensive high-power ICE engines with expensive electronic 8+ speed automatic transmissions.

This is the same reason why BMW chose lower range PHEV batteries so that they could sell their PHEV’s at around the same price as their equivalent performance gas car in the same model line, and is increasing range as the battery prices dictate.

That might not make everyone happy who wants to buy a cheap EV, but replacing a big luxury ICE car or SUV with an EV or PHEV actually does more good than replacing a Pulsar with an EV. We would actually be much better off if all car makers worked on EV/PHEV vehicles that could compete with and replace their highest dollar cars first.

TomBrown

Yup- and it seems big auto is making families wait a long time for green family carriers… Importantly ones that aren’t that much more expensive.

Toyota never made a Sienna minivan hybrid.

Sure the Toyota highlander hybrid is out there but it’s hard to find a base model with the hybrid powertrain. Some folks want greener without all the bells and whistles.

Chevy should’ve put the Volt’s tech into the Equinox or similar- sure it wouldve only gotten 20 miles or so but thats a big difference compared to full gasmobile without regen.

Ford should’ve put their cmax/fusion plug in hybrid into the Flex or similar- lol but that wouldve only mustered about 10 miles.

No carmakers have seemed to add even a 48 volt battery to their large Suburbans, etc.

Sigh.

LS

Better advice: Instead of not buying an EV for 5 years, but a used EV now like the Nissan Leaf for very cheap and enjoy driving electric for 5 years. Then in 5 years buy that cheap and awesome EV or find out you don’t need a car at all anymore due to autonomous ride sharing.

arne-nl

“Confused.com has recommended holding off on the purchase for ‘up to five years’,

If no-one buys an EV the coming years, it will remain a niche and prices will stay high and in 5 years time the advice will be…. to wait another 5 years. Einsteins.

notting
Like the article says, I also think that after some incentives ended the manufactures will reduce prices at least by the amount of the resp. incentive. In Germany, Renault offered 5kEUR incentiv >1 year before the German 4kEUR incentive started (where Renault offers 1kEUR “on top” -> at the end still 5kEUR, but 2kEUR from the German government). Also in https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Klartext-Warum-sind-Elektroautos-so-teuer-3979605.html (German) is said that the batteries are already much cheaper, but the EV prices weren’t really reduced. Also it’s dumb to spend very much money for something you actually can’t really use. I have to drive quite far to work, need a tow-bar, etc. So I need some reserves in the battery if there’s a charging problem in the night. A Hyundai Kona 64kWh probably can’t completely offer what I need (especially when the battery is some years old). So you spend much money also in metal etc. But crowd-founding could be a good idea. A well-defined goal of specifications. They get the money to development, not for building useless cars resp. wasting energy/metal/etc. It’s also that many people buy a car only like every 10 years. So even if the current EVs meet their requirements, it’s dumb to… Read more »
Loboc

In some places, gasoline is higher cost than electricity. Add the efficiency of electric motors over ICE engines and less maintenance for EVs. In many cases the TCO for an EV over an ICEV is already at price parity.

G2

This “Confused” article looks like it was written to keep the U (Uncertainty) in FUD top of mind to the general, unknowing, public. Paid for by the LICE industry, no doubt.

Randy Bryan

Confused article premise to wait 5 years for EVs is missinformed. E-cars out there now are already lower lifetime cost than petrol cars and and Govt incentives make upfront cost equal. Cant use the tax credits?, lease the car.
As to car prices when the tax credit expire… Tesla is already headed to profitable car production in 4q2018, And they dropped hint that it could stay profitable with 5k cars/wk in 2019 with price drop to follow loss of US FTC. If they can do it, so can the big OEMs, when they feel like it.
Regarding the shortage of EV infrastructure.. it will remain a problem as profitable business plans for Charging companies are problematic… And competent Charging companies are hard to find. Still, these issues are being overcome by a few.
To summarize, if a battery or hybrid plug-in car meets your needs, and you can afford the new one, get it! If you need a lower price, keep your eye on the used e-car market for a car that fits. You’ll enjoy the ride.