Report Says Demand For Electric Ride-Sharing Cars Will Soar

JUN 20 2018 BY MARK KANE 20

Roland Berger forecasts that global demand for purpose-built vehicles for ride-sharing services is going to increase to millions.

Waymo’s Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan

It’s expected that by 2020 in Europe, the United States and China alone, one million of these specially designed ride-sharing vehicles will be sold annually and many of them will be electric.

Read Also – Up To 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Minivans Will Join Waymo

By 2025 sales could reach some 2.5 million annually.

The reports says that the ride-sharing electric cars, compared to conventional cars, will be quicker to develop, simpler, manufactured for about half the cost, and cheap to maintain.

60% of the purpose-built vehicles for ride-sharing are going to be sold in China.

“This new type of car unites two of the key mobility megatrends in one vehicle: ride-sharing and electromobility,” explains Jan-Philipp Hasenberg, Partner at Roland Berger. “What this new vehicle category does is put the passenger, not the driver, firmly center stage. And it is purpose built for use as a taxi service.”

An attractive market segment for automotive OEMs is opening up here, given that the reduced complexity of these vehicles will allow them to be manufactured for about half the cost of a conventional car. And with electric models in their portfolio, automakers will be better able to meet applicable CO2 targets. “Vehicle manufacturers should take active steps to get into this niche market now so that they can establish a strong competitive position and get their customers excited about the new models,” advises Hasenberg.

Quick to develop, cheap to maintain

Nissan and DeNA to start Easy Ride robo-vehicle mobility service trial

Passengers, too, will benefit from the new mobility concept. These vehicles offer higher levels of convenience and are also cheaper to buy and maintain because they don’t require oil changes and the brakes don’t wear out so fast, for example.

“We anticipate the price per kilometer for using these cars to come in at between 0.5 and 0.8 euros,” explains Wolfgang Bernhart, Partner at Roland Berger. “These purpose-built vehicles will therefore be among the cheapest means of getting around in a car. The only thing that will be cheaper to use, at less than 0.3 euros per kilometer, will be genuine robocabs without a driver.”

There is also much potential in the market for ride-sharing services. Such players are experiencing remarkable growth worldwide as the demand for mobility services that don’t depend on personal car ownership continues to tick ever upward. The Roland Berger experts forecast that the global demand for purpose-built vehicles for mobility on demand will rise to about one million cars by 2020. And by 2025 the figure is set to total some 2.5 million new cars.

“One of the main drivers here will be China, which makes up at least 60 percent of the market, but Europe and the United States will also see their market for these vehicles grow as time goes on,” forecasts Jan-Philipp Hasenberg. “Indeed, this is a key growth market that no OEM can afford to ignore.”

Source: Purpose-built vehicles for ride-sharing services: Global demand to rise to 2.5 million cars by 2025 via Green Car Congress

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20 Comments on "Report Says Demand For Electric Ride-Sharing Cars Will Soar"

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Michael Will

I would sign up with a rideshare service that promised to only send me electric cars

God/Bacardi

But how much extra would you pay? If UberX was quoted $10 for your ride, what’s the MOST you would pay for an EV?

EVShopper

Should be less. As they are less expensive to maintain.

xm

Fuel expense is 75% less, and if these cars drive 100 miles a day, that adds up to a lot of money.

Anton

I think Uber and Lyft could already enable an option to send you only an EV or Hybrid. They know what cars all their drivers use, so just only send my request to ones that are electrified. I would be willing to wait longer. For now, I think plain gas-only hybrids would be necessary to keep this usable (not too many EVs in ride sharing, though I have seen Leafs and Volts with Uber/Lyft stickers), but in the near future this could become plug-in only. And, yes, I know in some cities it seems all ride share drivers already drive Priuses, but that’s not the case here.

Dante

“By 2025 sales could reach some 2.5 million annually”

Seems a bit larger than the 30k Toyota is going for with hydrogen vehicles.

God/Bacardi

Fleet owned vans/shuttles will most likely be the future…

reijer.k

I share my Hyundai Ioniq Electric with other people in the Netherlands. They can use my car as long as I don’t need it. If I rent it 10 days/month I will be driving for free the other 20 days! Next to that various people can get their first experiences on driving with a electric car in general

God/Bacardi

The biggest question is charging: Who pays the charger costs including the maintenance? How much will they for pay the electricity? Will increasing charger congestion be a factor?

Pushmi-Pullyu

That’s far from the biggest question. The biggest question is why anyone would believe that significantly fewer cars can serve just as many people, unless they’re willing to wait in line to use the service.

About the second time any employee says to his boss “It’s not my fault I’m hours late, because I had to wait fora ride-sharing car to show up”… that employee will be looking for another job.

There might be some “edge cases” where someone who currently depends, and has the convenience of, a personal car might be able to change his lifestyle to rely on what amounts to Uber service. But the vast majority of people currently driving their own car are going to continue doing so.

This idea that most people are going to give up the reliability and convenience of owning their own car is, in my opinion, just wishful thinking. I’d like to see someone actually do a deep dive into making a comprehensive logistics analysis, a time-and-motion study, of this concept. So far, I have not.

Anton

It’s not the people who already own cars that will switch, although some already are giving up cars because of how much they cost just to keep around. The biggest users of ride sharing and car sharing are us wretched Millenials, and younger, living in cities, who might never want to buy a car in the first place.

Doggydogworld

Uber doesn’t have any customer or logistics data? Waymo is investing billions without analyzing the logistics?

Car ownership in major cities is anything but “convenient” unless you can afford to pay a fortune for parking and insurance.

You’re right about”half the cost to manufacture”, though. Not sure what they’re smoking.

scott franco

I’ve seen Bolts with Uber/Lyft stickers on them. There must be incentives in the form of zero gas required vs. the need to charge in the day, and the driver is the one to work that out. I suspect a cheap $35,000 Telsa M3 will eventually work its way into the mix as well, with the advantage of much faster charging.

The real issue is you need a car to get to a car, so there is a whole paradigm shift waiting for the time self driving cars take off. If the car can get to you to pick you up, it can take you anywhere. Thus Saint Elon was/is correct on that score.

mzs.112000

The problem with Bolts with Uber/Lyft stickers is, there is not enough fast charging, someone needs to do a Tesla move, and start putting in parking areas with 20-stalls of fast or at least medium-speed charging. Right now, with the 50kW chargers only having 1 or 2 stalls each, the Uber Bolts are clogging up all the existing charging networks.

xm

An über Bolt driver can drive 100 miles a day, and still have more than half his range left. Then he drives home and charges. No need for fast charging.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…the reduced complexity of these vehicles will allow them to be manufactured for about half the cost of a conventional car.”

I find this claim to be utterly baffling. Are cars purpose-built to be taxis less expensive than normal passenger cars? No, a car such as a Checker Cab is built to more rugged standards, intended for more hours of use per day. Checker cabs are more expensive than normal passenger cars, aren’t they? I’m fairly sure this is the case.

I’d like to see the case for “ride-sharing” cars being built for “about half the cost of a conventional car.” Seems like bully pucky to me!

Erwin

But such purpose-built cars are batch ordered and batch produced in the ten or hundred of thousands, with a lot of savings from manufacturing scheduling, batch procurement etc. all of them in advance.

Rightofthepeople

My thoughts exactly PuPu. As I was reading I kept asking “why, why are these cars half as much to manufacture?” The article mentions no oil changes and less wear on brakes, but those are advantages of current EVs which, last I checked, cost MORE than their ICE equivalents.

bro1999

GM’s acquisition of Cruise is probably the best moves they’ve made since coming out of bankruptcy. Definitely saw the future wave of the ride sharing/AV business. Acquired for $1 billion, now worth almost $12 billion 2 years later.
Seems like they are now looking at moving forward with an IPO offering for their Cruise division.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-18/general-motors-ipo-of-self-driving-unit-would-be-step-one

xm

Not if they’re not using Bolts.