Report: Roadmap To Get More EVs In The Northeast And Mid-Atlantic States

OCT 28 2015 BY JAY COLE 48

"Charging Up" Detrails

“Charging Up” Details Current EV Programs And Policies In The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US (click to enlarge)

With 30,000 EVs Sold - There Is A Long Way To Go To Hit Targets

With 30,000 EVs Sold – There Is A Long Way To Go To Hit Targets

When it comes to electric vehicle adoption in the United States, we tend to clump all the states’ cumulative effort into one tidy number.

However, the reality is that a few states (located mostly in the West, such as California, Washington and Oregon) are far more pro-active that most of the others and do a lot of the heavy lifting.

One particular area of concern is in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States.

A new report entitled “Charging Up filed by the Sierra Club, CLF (Conservation Law Foundation) and Acadia Center notes that ambitious future state goals set for EV adoption in these regions don’t marry-up with the actual growth trends, but rather they are lagging far behind.

In fact, the ZEV commitment made by six of the states in this region states that they are aiming for 1.7 million all-electric vehicles by 2025, yet just 30,000 have been sold so far (through August) after 5 years of availability.

We should note that not all states are lagging as far behind as others – both Massachusetts and Maryland are still considered standouts in Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region.

The new report is very comprehensive, and details the significant actions the group feels should be adopted by the electric utilities, the individual states and the auto industry themselves.

Our friend, and Director of the Sierra Club’s EV Program, Gina Coplon-Newfield (who works tirelessly on behalf of EV promotion) co-authored the report, and states:

“Plug-in electric vehicles are a clean, affordable choice over the gasoline- fueled vehicles that are making our air dirty and our families and our climate sick.  We need the utility industry, auto industry, and government in each and every state to dramatically increase policies that encourage electric vehicle use, and this report shows how we can do just that.”  

The report summarizes the plan as follows:

Among the nine vital steps for success put forth in the report are auto dealership and consumer incentive programs to promote electric vehicles, policies to encourage widespread availability of consumer-friendly charging stations, public education initiatives to raise awareness about the benefits of electric vehicles, and the use of such vehicles in municipal and statewide fleets enabling public actors to lead by example.

The "Nine Steps" Found In The Charging Up Report

The “Nine Steps” Found In The Charging Up Report

The report will now be circulated to lawmakers and industry leaders, but we would encourage everyone to download the PDF and have a look for themselves…then pass it on!

EV Totals And Goals In The "ZEV" MOU States

EV Totals And Goals In The “ZEV” MOU States

EV Totals And Goals In The Non "ZEV" MOU States

EV Totals And Goals In The Non “ZEV” MOU States – C’mon Delaware and Maine!

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48 Comments on "Report: Roadmap To Get More EVs In The Northeast And Mid-Atlantic States"

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One million BEV (NOT PHEV) sales per year in the U.S. in the next ten years? I doubt it. Hybrids have been selling for 15 year at about 3% of sales. BEVs have been selling for 5 years at about 0.1% of sales.

Total “green” car sales have been running at about 4% of sales.

1M per year in 10 years will require about 5.5% market share.

CA will require 14% of sales of the Big 8 legacy automakers sales be ZEV in 2025.

The price to manufacture an electric battery powertrain should be at parity or below that of an ICE powertrain in 2025.

Rising ZEV requirements,rising CAFE requirements,and rising emissions requirements in the US,Europe and China will be tough on ICE to keep performance parity with BEV.

Is anyone predicting we will have 5% BEV (NOT PHEV or “green sales”) in 5 years? In 10 years? Past performance of hybrids and BEV can be an accurate predictor of future events.

Elon Musk has the market at way over 5% BEV in the US by 2025.

Once you have $25k BEVs with 300 EPA mile range PHEVs FCEV HEVs and natural gas cars become really stupid. And ICEv, with a few use cases exempted, not too compelling either.

As a wise man once said “we will see”.

I don’t think we will see a 300 mile range EV for $25K. 200 miles for $35K will very difficult to reach. The Model 3 won’t reach it initially, IMHO. But if we are lucky they hit it by 2025.

EV are already at almost 1%, 5 years ago they were at about 0%. In 2017 when the lower cost long range EVs come out sales of EVs should take off. The people that own EVs already know what a pleasure it is to own and drive them. When range anxiety is no longer a factor and the general population starts to experience the multitude of benefits of EV ownership, EV sales should become unstoppable. But a lot still depends on state government support. States like California shouldn’t have any trouble making 5% sales in 5 years. California is getting a pretty good EV charging infrastructure. If a state does not have a good EV charging infrastructure there will still be EV range anxiety in that state regardless of range of the vehicles. If a state does not promote EV vehicle sales and charging infrastructure installation not many EVs will get sold in that state. Unless there are stronger federal government mandates for zero emission vehicles many states will continue to lag behind in EV sales. I’m not advocating greater federal government involvement, I’m just saying it’s going to take a long time for EV sales to really take off… Read more »

SJC said:

“Is anyone predicting we will have 5% BEV (NOT PHEV or ‘green sales’) in 5 years? In 10 years? Past performance of hybrids and BEV can be an accurate predictor of future events.”

Any number of individuals and so-called “research” companies have made any number of wildly different predictions about near-future growth in the EV market, none of which have much (if any) credibility. Trying to predict future EV sales in 2015, by looking at sales over the past few years, is as pointless as trying to predict future motorcar sales in the years before the introduction of the Ford Model T.

Disruptive tech revolutions always go through an “S” curve of sales. We’re still at or near the bottom of the curve. When the year-on-year increase in sales finally starts showing sustained exponential growth, only then will we be able to make a prediction more than, at best, one or two years ahead with any hope of being close to reality.

+1 It just came to my mind, that one could compare EV market growth with bacterial growth, which would fit with the S-curve. One thing to keep in mind here is that car customers represent a very diversified population. One would assume that there are at least 2 groups, so it is likely that we see some kind of “diauxic” growth. Refer to [Bi-logistic growth P Meyer – Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1994 – Elsevier] However customers might also consist of more than just 2 groups, leading to muli-phasic growth which also might be superposed so that we cannot actually distinguish between different growth-phases. Right now we seem to still be in the lag-phase in most markets, with some markets already in the accelarion-phase where growth approaches exponential behaviour. Decreasing growth in one market right now could indicate that we reach saturation in one part of the population (let’s say early adopters). It will not be easy to predict how long the secondary lag-phase will be. Neither will it be easy to predict growth rate in the second phase. One approach would be to classify customers and get information on their behaviour based on things like: household income, technology… Read more »

I think it is going to start happening faster than most people think. Here is why:
1) Cheaper batteries. That $145/KWH number from GM/LG Chem is HUGE. The Gigafactory too.
2) Tesla made plug-in cars cool.
3) CARB requirements, Increasing CAFE standards in the USA, and CO2 standards in the EU will force all automakers to expand their plug-in offerings.

Right now we are kind of at a plateau . . . but the Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, the new Volt, the Mitsubishi Outland PHEV, and other PHEVs will break sales to a new level.

This is cumulative. You don’t need to sell the 1.7 million (10% of market) in one year. Make it 1% for the next ten years and the goal is easy with today market already at 0.6% EVs and 0.3-0.4% BEV.

“…ambitious future state goals set for EV adoption in these regions don’t merry-up with the actual growth trends…”

My inner Grammar Nazi says:

“merry-up” should be “marry-up”.

(But we would be merry if sales improved!) 🙂

You can’t look at the EV sales potential without also considering electricity rates. New England has high electricity rates ($.18/kWh average), which currently makes it cheaper to drive a Prius, Accord Hybrid, or Malibu Hydrid on gasoline than to charge a Leaf at home at the average electric rate. If gasoline prices stay low in the near and mid term, hybrids will steal market share from EVs and take a bite out of their sales growth.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

I think you have missed it completely. EV sales are not about the price of gas or the price of electricity. EV sales are about reducing air pollution. We wouldn’t even have modern EVs on the road today if it wasn’t for the federal government and state like California provide incentives to reduce air pollution. And EV sales are becoming very resilient to energy costs changes. If EV sales were dependent on energy prices then the downturn in the price of gasoline over the last year should have crushed EV sales but EV sales have held firm. People finally have a choice not buy smokers and more and more people are turning to EVs for their transportation needs.

Well maybe both of you are right?

Two drivers to buy EV’s
-economic reasons
-ecologic reasons

both of which are real world stuff and should not be neglected. Let me add one more factor to the equation:
-usability reasons (charging times, infrastructure)
The whole picture of EV and ICE is as huge and complex as the sum of all people and car offerings out there. And it is changing every day. Let’s be open-minded 😉

This is why I changed my point-of-view regarding wireless charging…Convienience is a good market driver…

And also choices. Choices of:
– Range
– Price
– Usability

The price has a huge impact. The cheapest european car is around 7.000€ (Dacia Sandero) sure it is cheap, it drives cheap, if feels cheap, but you can drive it.

The cheapest EV (Zoe) is 21.000€, + 600/year for battery. This is around 3 times the price!

Sure you get more, but not everybody wants more, this is why automakers also produce cheap cars.

I have to disagree with you on that. For early adopters and EV enthusiasts it may be about air pollution, but those people represent a small fraction of our population. For the vast majority of people, fuel costs and upfront costs (total cost of ownership) are very important, and IMO far more important than air pollution. All I am saying is, in order to drive exponential growth in EV sales, the economics have to make sense for people.

+1

EVs are about air pollution?

Maybe a tiny portion of the population are willing to spend extra money to limit air pollution, but EVs are not going to gain mainstream adoption in the US based on reduced air pollution UNLESS the government forces people to buy them because of air pollution. If an EV costs more to own than an ICE car, very few people are going to buy them. Even now, when you can demonstrably show that some people will SAVE money by driving an EV, people still don’t do it, and one of those reasons is because they don’t want to be stereotyped as an environmental activist… the exact opposite reaction you’re counting on to sell EVs.

Maybe several years down the road people’s views on air pollution will change, but right now, there are probably as many people who would refuse to own an EV based on activist stereotype as there are people who are willing to spend extra money to lower air pollution.

EVs can be about whatever you want them to be: Want a car that pollutes less: Get an EV, Want a car that is smooth and quite: Get an EV. : Want a car that is high tech: Get an EV. Want a car that you can fuel at home cheaply: Get an EV. Want all of that: Get an EV.

Totally agree… There are LOTS of reasons to buy an EV. My point is that, contrary to the previous claim, air pollution is not going to be an overwhelming driving factor for most people (at least at this point in time). In fact, the activist stereotype associated with EVs actually hurts sales, as well.

That is the saddest comment on human motivations I’ve seen in a long time.

It is also perfectly accurate.

I know dozens of modest households in PA who still can’t afford hybrids because of the up-front cost. They think the EVs might be interesting, but they simply cannot afford the up-front cost. Total cost of ownership is completely and utterly irrelevant if you can’t afford the entry fee.

On the good side, the prices of used EVs are getting cheap. If people really want to get an EV, they can pick up some bargains. Especially the i-MiEV if you can put up with its much too short range.

Agreed… There can’t be many cars with a cheaper total cost of ownership than buying a 3 year old Leaf for ~$10,000.

Maybe so, but cost of ownership, gas savings, etc., are easy to quantify. If the numbers don’t add up or the up-front investment is too high (most people’s budgets don’t allow for such expenses even if it saves them money in the long run), then trying to convince people to buy an EV based on a vague, difficult-to-individually-quantify “air pollution” problem, is not going to work for many people.

Yes, it is sad. And it is really sad because he’s right.

You guys still don’t get it. We wouldn’t even have modern EVs if it wasn’t for the governments trying to curb air pollution. Sure there are some great and exciting things occurring the EV industry but the governments are steering the economy. The governments are going force out smokers. Fluctuations in gas and electricity prices may slow down or speed up the extinction of petrosaurs but price changes won’t stop the extinction. ICEs have gone to court, have been convicted and now it’s just a matter of time before the execution.

I’m really surprised you guys don’t see this. Here is how it works: Back in the 1970s you use to be able to buy leaded gasoline then the government decided that leaded gasoline was bad and passed laws to eliminate it. Within a few years you couldn’t find a single gas pump that dispensed leaded gasoline and all new cars ran on unleaded. Now the governments have decided that ICEs that run on petroleum are bad and is trying to phase them out. Governor Jerry Brown has said that he wants all new cars in California to be zero emission by 2030. If you buy a new car in California in 2030 the price of gasoline will mean nothing to you because you won’t be able to buy a new car that runs on gas. This is going to a gradual process but every year the governments are going to force the auto manufacturers to provide more and more zero emission products until finally all products are zero emission. Your choice will not be whether or not to buy a zero emission vehicle but what zero emission vehicle to buy.

I do get it. You obviously didn’t read my post. I said that “EVs will only gain widespread adoption based on air pollution if the government FORCES adoption based on air pollution.”

Then you come back and say, “EVs will gain widespread adoption because the government is going to FORCE adoption.”

So basically you repeated what I said and then claimed I don’t get it.

EV’s MPGe$ depends on what car (mi/kWh) and local gas prices. For example, SparkEV is now getting about 50 MPGe$, Leaf about 48 MPGe$ with gas prices $2.70/gal and $0.19/kWh. But when gas prices were $4/gal, they were 75 MPGe$, and 71 MPGe$.

These are using “mystery meat” EPA figures. At least for me, actual measured was almost 20% better.

http://sparkev.blogspot.com/2015/10/epa-mpge-for-various-ev.html

Unlike potential buyers of ICE vehicles who may be more willing to buy a gas guzzler if the price of gas is low today, I doubt if the price of electricity influences BEV or PHEV sales. I dint think most people could tell you offhand how much they pay per kwh for electricity. I think the limitations for BEV AND PHEV sales is range and price of the vehicle. A $7500 federal tax rebate isn’t a huge incentive if a buyer has to finance the car at full retail and wait months for a check from the IRS, and many may not have the tax burden to qualify for the rebate, anyway.

“I doubt if the price of electricity influences BEV or PHEV sales. I dint think most people could tell you offhand how much they pay per kwh for electricity.”

It does in NYC, Westchester County NY, Nassau County NY, and Suffolk County NY. In NYC and Westchester County the average standard electric rate is $0.31 per kWh, and it is even more expensive in Long Island, NY (Nassau and Suffolk Counties). On a time-of-use plan, during the summer months the peak rate is $.42 per kWh, and the Super Peak rate is $1.20 per kWh. Peak hours are from 8am to midnight year round, while Super Peak hours are from 2pm to 6pm Monday through Friday during the summer months of June to September.

http://www.coned.com/customercentral/calculators/voluntary_time_of_use.html

http://www.coned.com/electricvehicles/rates.asp

All I gotta say is that is insane. SparkEV would cost more than 8 MPG gas car! I guess it comes to solar or shut up. Or is there more onerous tax, etc for solar?

Yep, solar is the way to go. No onerous tax on solar that I know of, but there are some stupid rules in NYS involving net metering, time-of-use, and home energy storage systems (batteries). I’ve come to the conclusion that best option for me in NYC is to just get the $.31/kWh standard rate plan and try to size my solar PV system to match my annual electrical usage, minimizing any annual excess electricity for which I would receive the wholesale kWh rate. A solar PV system and a Time-Of-Use rate plan (TOU) with it’s insane super peak rates makes absolutely no sense, because Con Edison’s net metering plan does NOT allow your peak-time produced solar electricity to offset your 12am-8am off-peak electricity usage. So my PV panels can never offset the electricity I use overnight for air conditioning and charging my EVs. Also, I don’t know if I can even offset super-peak $1.20/kWh electric usage with peak-time generated solar electric, or whether peak and super-peak are considered the same period. I asked Con Ed by email for clarification, but they haven’t responded yet. Con Ed will only answer net metering questions by email, and specifically forbids its employees from… Read more »

What is needed on the public education side is also needed at the Dealership Level and at the State Level!

Simply – in dealing with what most people see – the Cost side, we need a simple spreadsheet that is openly shared, that we can enter current gas prices, electricity prices, insurance rates, general maintenance costs, typical number of miles driven per day commuting and on errands or appointments, that can yield results in terms of direct and indirect benefits, based on a given Buyer and their city or address.

Automatic Graphing and adding other references like County, State, and National Averages, may also provide an educational benefit as well.

For those short on cash or earnings, a spreadsheet that compares income, living expenses, and travel needs, with best Electric Vehicle (BEV or PHEV/EREV) to consider could help to give them a easier focal point in the move to the plug in vehicle world.

+1

but don’t forget that most people out there don’t even know what a kWh is… We need to go out there and tell them 😉
I imagine that in Norway such knowledge already became more common, so it will be very interesting to see what happens there. Once EV loose that exotic perception things will change faster.

There should be a theater movie teaching the people some basic knowledge about EV’s. It worked with Back to the future: Many people understand at least the basic ground of the complex implications of time travel from just seeing how Marty nearly vanishes. So why not go that educational way with EV’s?

Great idea, Robert.

Jay, I would suggest to Gina Coplon-Newfield that #1 on her list of ‘nine vital steps for success’ should be TOU or EV tariffs.
If EVs are to become mainstream, ordinary car buyers need to see that they will recoup some of the extra sticker price from lower energy costs (as well as lower maintenance).

The table of existing EV policies shows a lot of policies in place in many states, except for TOU/EV rates.

The other key barrier to EV ownership is cold winters. For cold climates, policy needs to be friendly to EVs with range extenders, like the Volt EREV & i3 REX.

Maryland seems particularly well suited for EV adoption, Especiqlly the 200 mile variety.

California will require that 15.4% of vehicles be ZEV by 2025 so I don’t think one can use hybrid adoption rates as a predictor of EV adoption rates.

Connecticut, D.C., Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont are also adopting ZEV mandates.

As a PA resident, this explains why I never met another EV driver in 3 years of ownership.

Only giving GHG as reason for EV is turning off most (half?) the people. You ask them about climate change threat, and most will say no. Then they don’t see a reason for EV that they perceive only as climate change fighting car.

As a RWNJ (I’ve been called that), EV is good for lowering taxes (EV tax credit). It’s also good for fighting ISIS; when 60% of refinery oil comes from imports, even a tiny bit from black market is huge amount of money for them. It’s also good for spurring innovation that will lead to better opportunities for everyone. Digging holes in the ground and doing the same thing we did 100 years ago, not so much.

A major barrier in the northeast is, ironically, population density: you need places to charge. Apartment/condo/etc. establishments are still slow/reluctant to have EV charging stations in their parking garages for residents. This is, of course, particularly true along the I-95 corridor, which passes through the biggest cities of the region and the populous areas in between.

Here is all you need to do:

1) Build a PHEV Drivetrain that gets 30 to 50 miles on electricity.
2) Put that drivetrain into an SUV, a crossover, a sedan, a pick-up, and a minivan.

That’s all that needs to be done.

From my perspective, most of what has been written above has merit. Our weather also factors into the equation. That smaller BEV(think IMiEV)runs through its battery very quickly when the heater is forced to run full blast. In Philly, we have some Level II stations, but not a whole lot. Same thing for workplace charging, a little here and there but not really a lot. Increase the range of the BEV(200 mile Bolt or LEAF, eg), drop the price down to a more manageable range, have a more robust charging infrastructure both commercially and also at work, and you will see a lot more people opting for EV’s. Sadly, I don’t think the ecological benefits will matter to most people. First, half of the politicians(Republicans, mainly)simply deny global warming, claim that the government has no right to regulate or require anything(unless it is sex related, then they are all against same sex marriages, etc)and instantly and incessantly claim that _any_ law that might restrict carbon emissions is anti-American. I don’t see that attitude changing much. What may swing the pendulum, though, is if climate change accelerates dramatically and in turn ICE cars are heavily restricted. Might be that Europe takes… Read more »

EV sales were rising in 2012 and going up in 2013. Than OPEC dropped oil prices and continued to today and EV sales have slowed. Most people do not understand that there is savings in maintenance. However when battery technology has longer range and quicker charging more EVs will sale. Also when the price of EVs come down like Focus EV almost the same price as gas Focus EV sales will increase.