Report: By 2020, Tesla Will Be Building 500,000 EVs Per Year

NOV 21 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 27

 

500,000 Tesla EVs Rolling Off The Line By 2020?

500,000 Tesla EVs Rolling Off The Line By 2020?

Tesla Model S Production Complete

Tesla Model S Production Complete

Tesla’s momentum can’t be stopped, according to automotive analysts at International Strategy and Investment (ISI).

ISI tells investors that Tesla Motors will be manufacturing 500,000 electric vehicles per year by 2020.

ISI adds that Tesla’s profit margins will be the highest in the automotive industry – 25% in the near future and up to 30% by 2020.

Per ISI:

 “[Tesla] has a market-leading product for which there is no obvious competition [and] has already created substantial brand equity through product and innovation. Global legislation, namely emissions regulations, is a tailwind [for Tesla] yet a headwind for the [premium] competition.”

As for the Model S, ISI says that by 2020, its production costs will fall by 13%, while most other automakers will be faced with rising costs as they ready models to meet more stringent CO2 regulations.

Tesla’s estimations suggest that the cost of batteries should fall by about 30 per cent, with ISI estimating a 13 per cent drop in the factory cost of the Model S by 2020. Mainstream car makers, by contrast, will be faced with rising costs as they switch to hybrid transmissions to meet CO2 regulations.

ISI concludes by stating that Tesla is stealing buyers from the likes of Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, BMW and so on.  This trend will continue until those automakers produce a competing product.

Even more intriguing is ISI’s twist on why Daimler sold off its Tesla shares.  According to ISI, this move was done because Tesla is now a legitimate rival to Daimler and automakers don’t commonly invest in the competition.

Source: Autocar

Categories: Tesla

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27 Comments on "Report: By 2020, Tesla Will Be Building 500,000 EVs Per Year"

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Right from the horse’s mouth.

Elon says 500k units by 2019 or 2020.

On Fox Business Channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F9oM_EAtEs

At 2:44 he says AT LEAST! Thus we can assume it will be more. A million is more. The second thing is that by 2020 the Model 3 which will sell for around $35000 will be in production and the whole world will want it. I would say that 500 000 cars will not be enough!

They would need a second Gigafactory and a second Fremont sized auto factory running at full capacity to reach 1M units per year.

No credible reports Tesla is building that capacity. Does not mean they won’t just not on the docket just yet.

As soon as tesla will sell 160k/year in Europe alone, a factory will be built there.

Tesla opens second office in Tilburg | News | Telegraaf.nl http://www.telegraaf.nl> DFT> News Oct. 18. 2014 – The American manufacturer of electric cars, Tesla is expanding in Tilburg. The company wants to open a second office in Tilburg, …

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Ze Germans will need to build competing vehicles _AND_ a competing charging infrastructure to play in the luxury EV marketplace. 100kW+ CCS placed <=100km apart wherever they try. When 25-50kW slowpokes then clog them all up, they'll figure out why Tesla went proprietary.

Ze Germans already have a problem. The state will lose the revenue from the tax that the impose on fuel. They and King Fiasal are best friends!

German treasury will not lose much any tax on fuel with EVs because they have second highest tax on electicity in Europe (after Denmark)! Essentially half the price of electricity from their socket is tax. They might lose a little bit from people who have both EVs and solar but remember this is Northern Europe. It’s impossbible to be completely off the grid in Germany – no matter how much solar panels and batteries you have.

Ze Vaporware.

It’s a believable estimate, but depends almost exclusively on the ability to execute the Model 3.

By Tesla’s own admission (engineers) they still have challenges meeting the M3 cost targets, and ramping up manufacturing volume to that level with quality is a significant challenge for a small manufacturer. Does’t mean they can’t do it, just they’re not out of the woods yet.

Agree that Models S/X hurt the high end manufacturers (BMW/Merc) the most, but the market at that price point is somewhat finite. It’s all about Model 3 execution.

Disagree with supposed reason for Daimler to sell. It was more an investment decision to take profits at a high valuation.

I’d like to know how they can expect gross margin to up with Model III. A high volume car will most likely have a lower profit margin.

Yes, profit margin should drop down to a more reasonable 20%. Higher profit margins about 20, are dangerous because you Make a Market for your Competitor who may be willing to take 10-15% for long term marketshare.

Apple / Samsung.

But wait, I thought Dr. Menahem Anderman, PhD said it wasn’t possible? He was the lone voice in the industry saying it wasn’t possible for Tesla so it must be true, right?

It would be extremely impressive if they would reach 300 000 by 2020. And if everything goes as it should then it’s a good high end estimate.

To get to 300 000 in 2020 they would need about a 200k ramp up of the Model 3 in 3 years from 2017-2018 when they start selling that Model.
That would be a tough job but doable.

500k by 2020 is impossible. But hopefully they can reach those levels around 2022-2023.

2014 – we’ll build 500,000 annually cars by 2020!

2016 – we’ll build 500,000 annually cars by 2022!

2018 – we’ll build 500,000 annually cars by 2024!

2020 – we’ll build 500,000 annually cars by 2026!

Paint me a cynic, but when I first visited a Tesla store in November 2012 I was told that the Model X would be shipping in mid-2013. Recently I saw a quote from Musk that “People don’t understand how hard it is to develop a car”. Actually, a lot of people do understand it – but apparently it was news to Musk.

Investment analysts are not engineers.

I remain skeptical about the number. But at the same time, hopeful. Right now, the idea of 500,000 EV’s in a single year from all manufacturers combined sounds like a dream come true. But they are saying in basically 5 years, they will be making 500,000 all by themselves. Of course, that is probably world-wide figures. So I’d guess that would be more like 150,000 in the USA.

Wow, 500,000 electric cars per year. Although I am a fan of Tesla, but I think these numbers almost too optimistic.

Factory number 2 is opening in 2015 in the Nederlands
according to dutch financial news papers

This is not a factory but just the place were tesla puts the motor in the cars as they are shipped separate.

And…. TSLA downgraded to a SELL today….

Buy the dips 🙂

Always god thing Tesla set itself a goal
500.000 is am impressive figure but it is still 0.6% of yearly car sale in the world

Everyone wants a Model S; the line that divides is the price. Even so, many Model S owners have admitted they’ve never paid this much for a car before, some had to really scrimp and save to get it, and they still love the car.
The Model ≡ is going to cause a surge of demand that will make the latency automakers sick and dizzy. It will be supply constrained for several years; Tesla won’t be able to make them fast enough.

Is the BMW i3 style of construction the future? The price of materials vs the price of a roll of steel or aluminum.

I believe BMW has stated they can build cars in half the amount of time.

Surely all the OEM’s have ran the math?

High demand in Europa for Tesla models EV. Tesla is opening second factory in Tilburg the Nederlands beginning of 2015. Refer to Dutch news paper the financial page “The Telegraaf”

“factory” = assembly center

There won’t be a Tesla factory in Europe before 2020.